Annals of Nuclear Energy最新文献

英文中文

Reinvestigating the off-grid project priorities of small-scale nuclear reactors using an enhanced integrated fuzzy decision support system 基于增强型集成模糊决策支持系统的小型核反应堆离网工程优先级再研究

IF 2.3 3区工程技术 Q1 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Annals of Nuclear Energy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.anucene.2026.112160

Serhat Yüksel , Hasan Dinçer , Merve Acar , Edanur Ergün , Serkan Eti

Small-scale nuclear reactors represent a promising option for providing reliable and continuous energy in off-grid and isolated regions; however, limited investment budgets necessitate a clear prioritization of project objectives. This study addresses the need to identify the most critical project priorities and the most suitable off-grid energy applications for small-scale nuclear reactor deployments. To this end, a novel decision-making framework is developed by integrating artificial intelligence-based expert weighting with advanced fuzzy modeling techniques to effectively manage uncertainty and incomplete evaluations. The proposed approach enables a systematic assessment of strategic priorities without being tied to a specific reactor technology. The results indicate that security supported by passive safety systems is the most influential project priority, followed by cost effectiveness and operational flexibility. When alternative off-grid applications are evaluated, steady energy supply for rural industry fields emerges as the most appropriate option due to its strong and balanced performance across safety, economic, and operational dimensions. These findings highlight the interdependence between technical design considerations and application-level decisions. Overall, the study provides practical insights for policymakers and project managers by identifying strategic priorities that can enhance the effectiveness, feasibility, and long-term viability of small-scale nuclear energy investments in off-grid contexts.

小型核反应堆是在离网和偏远地区提供可靠和持续能源的有希望的选择；然而，有限的投资预算需要明确项目目标的优先次序。本研究解决了确定最关键的项目优先级和最适合小型核反应堆部署的离网能源应用的需要。为此，将基于人工智能的专家权重与先进的模糊建模技术相结合，开发了一种新的决策框架，以有效地管理不确定性和不完整的评估。拟议的方法能够在不依赖于特定反应堆技术的情况下对战略优先事项进行系统评估。结果表明，被动安全系统支持的安全性是最具影响力的项目优先级，其次是成本效益和操作灵活性。当评估替代性离网应用时，稳定的农村工业领域能源供应成为最合适的选择，因为它在安全、经济和运营方面具有强大而平衡的性能。这些发现突出了技术设计考虑和应用程序级决策之间的相互依赖关系。总体而言，该研究通过确定可以提高离网环境下小型核能投资的有效性、可行性和长期可行性的战略重点，为政策制定者和项目经理提供了实用的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Analysis of fracture conditions of Cr-coated Zr alloy claddings under LOCA conditions calculated using FEMAXI fuel performance code 利用FEMAXI燃料性能程序计算了cr包覆Zr合金在LOCA条件下的断裂情况

IF 2.3 3区工程技术 Q1 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Annals of Nuclear Energy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.anucene.2026.112114

Vu-Nhut Luu, Yoshinori Taniguchi, Yutaka Udagawa, Yudai Tasaki, Jinya Katsuyama

Fracture behavior of chromium (Cr) coated claddings under loss of coolant accident (LOCA) conditions were investigated utilizing the FEMAXI fuel performance code with newly implemented Cr coating degradation models. The FEMAXI code reproduced microstructure evolution and cladding oxidation under LOCA conditions, including metallic and ZrO₂ layers growth and oxygen uptake. Sensitivity analyses of the cladding oxygen concentration, where the effects of wall thickness change and eutectic reactions were taken into account, indicate that the fracture condition of the Cr-coated cladding can be discriminated by a criterion based on the remaining β-Zr thickness with an oxygen concentration of ≤ 0.9 wt%. This demonstrates FEMAXI’s applicability for assessing Cr-coated cladding performance under accident scenarios.

利用FEMAXI燃料性能代码和新实施的Cr涂层降解模型，研究了Cr涂层包壳在失冷事故（LOCA）条件下的断裂行为。FEMAXI代码重现了LOCA条件下的微观结构演变和包层氧化，包括金属层和ZrO2层的生长和氧气吸收。考虑壁厚变化和共晶反应影响的熔覆层氧浓度敏感性分析表明，当氧浓度≤0.9 wt%时，可以根据残余β-Zr厚度判断熔覆层的断裂状态。这证明了FEMAXI在事故场景下评估cr包覆层性能的适用性。

引用次数: 0

Neutron Data Evaluation in the n + 241,243Am reactions below 200 MeV 200 MeV以下n + 241,243Am反应的中子数据评价

IF 2.3 3区工程技术 Q1 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Annals of Nuclear Energy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.anucene.2026.112127

Xinwu Su , Yongli Xu , Yinlu Han

For research on fission or fusion nuclear reactor systems, there is a pressing need for neutron reaction data on

^{241, 243}

Am at incident energies up to 200 MeV. A consistent evaluation and calculation of nuclear data for n +

^{241, 243}

Am reactions below 200 MeV have been performed using theoretical models, including the optical model, distorted-wave Born approximation (DWBA), Hauser–Feshbach theory with width fluctuation correction, fission model, evaporation model, exciton model, and the intranuclear cascade model. Furthermore, newly available experimental data have been incorporated. The theoretical predictions are compared with experimental measurements, as well as with evaluated data from ENDF/B-VIII.1 and JENDL-5.

对于裂变或聚变核反应堆系统的研究，迫切需要入射能量高达200mev的241,243Am中子反应数据。利用光学模型、畸变波玻恩近似（DWBA）、带宽度涨落修正的Hauser-Feshbach理论、裂变模型、蒸发模型、激子模型和核内级联模型等理论模型，对200 MeV以下n + 241,243Am反应的核数据进行了一致性评价和计算。此外，还纳入了新获得的实验数据。将理论预测与实验测量以及ENDF/B-VIII的评估数据进行了比较。1和JENDL-5。

引用次数: 0

Artificial neural network approach for optimizing X-ray shielding by leveraging the photoelectric absorption edge 利用光电吸收边优化x射线屏蔽的人工神经网络方法

IF 2.3 3区工程技术 Q1 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Annals of Nuclear Energy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.anucene.2026.112142

M.R. Alipoor, M. Eshghi

The growing use of ionizing radiation necessitates efficient, non-toxic, and lightweight shielding materials. This research employs an Artificial Neural Network refined with Stochastic Gradient Descent to predict the X-ray attenuation of lead-free composites. The model estimates the linear attenuation coefficient based on material density, photon energy, and absorption edge energy. Validation against Geant4 simulations showed excellent accuracy with an average difference of ±0.4 and achieved a nearly perfect regression fit (R² = 0.999). The optimized composites developed using this model achieved superior attenuation, surpassing 99.9% at 40 keV and 92.7% at 120 keV with a mere 1 mm thickness. This study confirms that a physics-informed machine learning approach can rapidly develop high-performance, lead-free shielding for medical and industrial applications.

越来越多的电离辐射使用需要高效、无毒和轻质的屏蔽材料。本研究采用随机梯度下降的人工神经网络来预测无铅复合材料的x射线衰减。该模型基于材料密度、光子能量和吸收边缘能量来估计线性衰减系数。通过对Geant4模拟的验证，显示了极好的准确性，平均差值为±0.4，实现了近乎完美的回归拟合（R2 = 0.999）。使用该模型开发的优化复合材料在厚度仅为1 mm的情况下，在40 keV下衰减超过99.9%，在120 keV下衰减超过92.7%。这项研究证实，基于物理的机器学习方法可以快速开发用于医疗和工业应用的高性能无铅屏蔽。

引用次数: 0

Modeling and simulation of heavy reflector PWR-Core using the NECP-Bamboo software 利用NECP-Bamboo软件对重反射面堆芯进行建模与仿真

IF 2.3 3区工程技术 Q1 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Annals of Nuclear Energy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.anucene.2026.112178

Junwei Qin, Yunzhao Li, Liangzhi Cao, Hongchun Wu

At present, the two-step method based on homogenization theory still remains the main force for reactor core physics analysis in PWRs. Among those, the heavy reflectors differ significantly from traditional baffle reflectors in terms of physical properties, primarily due to the large number of materials containing intermediate-mass nuclides in the external structure. This study conducts simulation research on heavy reflector PWRs by using NECP-Bamboo, a PWR-core fuel management code system developed by the NECP Laboratory of Xi’an Jiaotong University. It incorporates multiple calculation schemes for neutronics calculation: the coarse-mesh diffusion two-step method, the pin-by-pin SP₃ two-step method, and more recently, the newly proposed pin-by-pin P₁ two-step method. It has undergone extensive verification against measured data from in-service commercial PWRs with baffle reflectors, which demonstrates its accuracy and reliability. Numerical results indicate improved accuracy when using the pin-by-pin two-step method compared to conventional approaches. For the three-dimensional PWR problem with heavy reflectors, it reduces the eigenvalue bias from approximately 300 pcm to around 150 pcm, and lowers the maximum bias of the assembly power distribution from roughly 6% to about 4%. These improvements further demonstrate the accuracy advantages of the pin-by-pin two-step method. Additionally, all three calculation methods can meet the requirements of engineering limits, which confirms that NECP-Bamboo is applicable to the core physics analysis of PWRs with heavy reflector.

目前，基于均匀化理论的两步法仍然是压水堆堆芯物理分析的主力军。其中，重型反射器与传统的折流板反射器在物理性能上有很大的不同，这主要是由于其外部结构中含有大量中质量核素的材料。本研究利用西安交通大学NECP实验室开发的堆芯燃料管理代码系统NECP- bamboo对重反射式压水堆进行了仿真研究。它结合了多种中子计算方案：粗网格扩散两步法、引脚SP3两步法以及最近新提出的引脚P1两步法。通过对在役的带有挡板反射器的商业压水堆的实测数据进行了广泛的验证，证明了该方法的准确性和可靠性。数值结果表明，与传统方法相比，采用逐针两步法可以提高精度。对于具有重反射面的三维压水堆问题，该方法将特征值偏差从约300 pcm降低到约150 pcm，并将装配功率分布的最大偏差从约6%降低到约4%。这些改进进一步证明了引脚两步法的精度优势。三种计算方法均能满足工程极限要求，证实了NECP-Bamboo适用于重反射镜压水堆堆芯物理分析。

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引用次数: 0

A new visual method for measuring the melting point of uranium dioxide 一种新的测量二氧化铀熔点的直观方法

IF 2.3 3区工程技术 Q1 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Annals of Nuclear Energy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.anucene.2026.112146

Juan Xu , Junhua Shen , Hong Wang , Ying Meng , Yiming Gao

In order to accurately measure the melting point of uranium dioxide, a novel visual method was developed. Uranium dioxide was heated using a fiber laser, with temperature monitored by a coaxially aligned 2-color pyrometer-Ⅱ. The temperature and melting process of uranium dioxide were observed using a 2-color pyrometer-Ⅰ equipped with a CCD camera. The melting point was determined based on the abrupt changes in the temperature curve of uranium dioxide, as well as the visual observations of the melting process captured by the CCD camera. The melting point of uranium dioxide was measured at 2855.6 ℃, while the melting point of molybdenum (Mo) was recorded at 2609.2 ℃. These values closely align with those reported in the literature.

为了精确测量二氧化铀的熔点，提出了一种新的可视化方法。二氧化铀是用光纤激光器加热的，温度由同轴对准的双色高温计-Ⅱ监测。用配备CCD相机的双色高温计Ⅰ对二氧化铀的温度和熔化过程进行了观察。熔点的确定是基于二氧化铀温度曲线的突变，以及CCD相机拍摄的熔化过程的目视观测。测得二氧化铀的熔点为2855.6℃，钼的熔点为2609.2℃。这些值与文献中报道的值密切一致。

引用次数: 0

Aerosol generation characteristics during laser cutting of carbon and stainless steel surfaces for nuclear power plant decommissioning 核电厂退役用碳钢和不锈钢表面激光切割时气溶胶产生特性

IF 2.3 3区工程技术 Q1 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Annals of Nuclear Energy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.anucene.2026.112156

Avadhesh Kumar Sharma , Ruicong Xu , Zeeshan Ahmed , Ravinder Kumar , Shuichiro Miwa , Shunichi Suzuki

The decommissioning of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant presents significant challenges due to high radiation levels and the need for safe and efficient fuel debris retrieval. Laser cutting is a promising technique for decontamination and dismantling, but it generates submicron-sized radioactive aerosols, necessitating precise aerosol management strategies. This study investigates aerosol generation during laser cutting of carbon steel (CS) and stainless steel (SS) surfaces under varying power levels and surface coatings at the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHI) Research & Innovation Center utilizing class-4 laser. Experimental results indicate that increasing laser power leads to higher aerosol concentrations, particularly for larger aerosols, while smaller aerosol concentrations decline. This effect is more pronounced in CS surfaces than in SS. Coated surfaces, especially with zirconium dioxide (ZrO₂), exhibit higher aerosol generation at elevated power levels, suggesting an intensified laser-material interaction. The experimental results highlight the role of coating composition in aerosol generation and importance of dispersion control methods during decommissioning. The analysis of aerosol dispersion results can give insight to enhance radiation worker safety, protect sensitive electronics, and improve the effectiveness of remote laser-based decontamination in high-dose environments.

由于高辐射水平和需要安全和有效地回收燃料碎片，福岛第一核电站的退役提出了重大挑战。激光切割是一种很有前途的去污和拆除技术，但它会产生亚微米大小的放射性气溶胶，需要精确的气溶胶管理策略。本研究在三菱重工（MHI）研究与创新中心使用4级激光对碳钢（CS）和不锈钢（SS）表面进行激光切割时，在不同功率水平和表面涂层下产生的气溶胶。实验结果表明，激光功率的增加导致气溶胶浓度的增加，特别是对于较大的气溶胶，而较小的气溶胶浓度下降。这种效应在CS表面比SS表面更为明显。涂层表面，特别是氧化锆（ZrO2）涂层表面，在高功率水平下表现出更高的气溶胶产生，表明激光与材料的相互作用加剧。实验结果强调了涂层成分在气溶胶产生中的作用以及退役过程中分散控制方法的重要性。对气溶胶分散结果的分析可以为提高辐射工作人员的安全、保护敏感电子设备以及提高高剂量环境中远程激光去污的有效性提供见解。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation of tantalum–tungsten–oxygen compounds as lead-free radiation shielding materials 钽钨氧化合物作为无铅辐射屏蔽材料的评价

IF 2.3 3区工程技术 Q1 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Annals of Nuclear Energy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.anucene.2026.112141

H.C. Manjunatha , B.M. Sankarshan , P.S. Damodara Gupta , L. Seenappa , K.N. Sridhar , R. Munirathnam

This study investigates alternative materials to lead for radiation shielding, addressing the need for safer and more effective options. Traditional materials like lead, although effective due to their high atomic number, are toxic and pose environmental risks. The study explores a set of tantalum–tungsten–oxygen (Ta–W–O) compounds, including TaW

_{2}

_{3}

, TaW

_{2}

_{4}

, Ta

_{2}

_{2}

_{5}

, TaWO

_{3}

, and others. These compounds offer promising shielding properties due to their high density, atomic number, and stability. Key shielding parameters such as mass attenuation coefficient (MAC), linear attenuation coefficient (LAC), half-value layer (HVL), and effective atomic number (Z

_{eff}

) were calculated and compared to lead. Among all the studied Ta–W–O compounds, TaW

_{2}

O₃ was identified as the most efficient and thermodynamically stable lead-free shielding material, exhibiting the highest photon attenuation performance across low- and intermediate-energy ranges. Across various energy ranges, these compounds demonstrate superior radiation protection efficiency (RPE) and electron density, essential for shielding in healthcare, nuclear, and aerospace applications. The findings suggest that tantalum–tungsten compounds could serve as viable lead-free shielding materials, offering a safer and more sustainable alternative for radiation protection.

本研究探讨了铅辐射屏蔽的替代材料，解决了更安全、更有效的选择需求。像铅这样的传统材料，虽然由于其高原子序数而有效，但却是有毒的，并构成环境风险。该研究探索了一组钽钨氧（Ta-W-O）化合物，包括TaW2O3， TaW2O4, Ta2W2O5， TaWO3等。这些化合物由于其高密度、原子序数和稳定性，提供了有前途的屏蔽性能。计算了质量衰减系数（MAC）、线性衰减系数（LAC）、半值层（HVL）和有效原子序数（Zeff）等关键屏蔽参数，并与铅进行了比较。在所有被研究的Ta-W-O化合物中，TaW2O3被认为是最有效和热力学稳定的无铅屏蔽材料，在中低能量范围内表现出最高的光子衰减性能。在各种能量范围内，这些化合物显示出卓越的辐射防护效率（RPE）和电子密度，这对于医疗保健、核和航空航天应用中的屏蔽至关重要。研究结果表明，钽钨化合物可以作为可行的无铅屏蔽材料，为辐射防护提供更安全、更可持续的替代方案。

{"title":"Evaluation of tantalum–tungsten–oxygen compounds as lead-free radiation shielding materials","authors":"H.C. Manjunatha , B.M. Sankarshan , P.S. Damodara Gupta , L. Seenappa , K.N. Sridhar , R. Munirathnam","doi":"10.1016/j.anucene.2026.112141","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.anucene.2026.112141","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates alternative materials to lead for radiation shielding, addressing the need for safer and more effective options. Traditional materials like lead, although effective due to their high atomic number, are toxic and pose environmental risks. The study explores a set of tantalum–tungsten–oxygen (Ta–W–O) compounds, including TaW<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>O<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>3</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>, TaW<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>O<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>4</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>, Ta<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>W<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>O<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>5</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>, TaWO<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>3</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>, and others. These compounds offer promising shielding properties due to their high density, atomic number, and stability. Key shielding parameters such as mass attenuation coefficient (MAC), linear attenuation coefficient (LAC), half-value layer (HVL), and effective atomic number (Z<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mtext>eff</mtext></mrow></msub></math></span>) were calculated and compared to lead. Among all the studied Ta–W–O compounds, TaW<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>O<sub>3</sub> was identified as the most efficient and thermodynamically stable lead-free shielding material, exhibiting the highest photon attenuation performance across low- and intermediate-energy ranges. Across various energy ranges, these compounds demonstrate superior radiation protection efficiency (RPE) and electron density, essential for shielding in healthcare, nuclear, and aerospace applications. The findings suggest that tantalum–tungsten compounds could serve as viable lead-free shielding materials, offering a safer and more sustainable alternative for radiation protection.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8006,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Nuclear Energy","volume":"230 ","pages":"Article 112141"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146035577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing the nuclear fuel cycle under global capacity expansion scenarios toward 2050 评估2050年前全球产能扩张情景下的核燃料循环

IF 2.3 3区工程技术 Q1 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Annals of Nuclear Energy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.anucene.2026.112175

Iván Merino Rodríguez , Bairon Faundes , Yerko Véliz , Pablo Romojaro , Victor J. Casas-Molina , Francisco Álvarez-Velarde

This study examines the implications of tripling global nuclear capacity by 2050 on the nuclear fuel cycle, based on national projections and COP28 climate commitments. Regionally disaggregated electricity scenarios were generated and used as inputs for the ANICCA simulation code, applying Monte Carlo methods to assess uncertainty in fuel cycle metrics. Three strategies were analyzed: open cycle, partially closed cycle (Pu mono-recycling in LWRs), and advanced closed cycle (Pu and MA multi-recycling in LFRs).

Results show that the open cycle could require about 15 million tons of natural uranium by 2100, surpassing identified reserves. Pu mono-recycling reduces uranium and enrichment needs by ∼9% and achieves Pu balance post-2050. The advanced cycle cuts minor actinide accumulation by ∼50%, easing long-term repository burdens.

These results highlight the need to explore advanced fuel cycles and expand infrastructure for reprocessing, MOX fabrication, and waste management to meet sustainability goals under high nuclear deployment scenarios.

本研究基于各国预测和COP28气候承诺，探讨了到2050年全球核能力增加两倍对核燃料循环的影响。生成了按区域分列的电力情景，并将其用作ANICCA模拟代码的输入，应用蒙特卡罗方法评估燃料循环指标的不确定性。分析了三种策略：开式循环、半封闭循环（LWRs中Pu单一回收）和高级封闭循环（LFRs中Pu和MA多重回收）。结果表明，到2100年，开放式循环可能需要约1500万吨天然铀，超过已确定的储量。Pu单循环减少了约9%的铀和浓缩需求，并在2050年后实现了Pu平衡。先进的循环减少了约50%的微量锕系元素积累，减轻了储存库的长期负担。这些结果强调了探索先进燃料循环和扩大后处理、MOX制造和废物管理基础设施的必要性，以满足高核部署情景下的可持续发展目标。

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引用次数: 0

Bayesian-optimized, feature-augmented deep ensemble for physics-guided critical heat-flux prediction with uncertainty quantification 贝叶斯优化，特征增强深度系综，用于物理引导的不确定性量化临界热通量预测

IF 2.3 3区工程技术 Q1 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Annals of Nuclear Energy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.anucene.2026.112139

Zaid Abulawi, Doyeong Lim, Abhiram Garimidi, Yang Liu

Accurate prediction of the critical heat flux (CHF) is a crucial design and safety consideration for a wide range of high-performance thermal systems, including water-cooled nuclear reactors. Traditional predictive tools, such as empirical correlations and look-up tables, often lack accuracy when extrapolated or at different interpolation regions. To overcome these limitations, this work introduces a novel physics-guided, optimized deep-ensemble framework for robust CHF prediction with comprehensive uncertainty quantification. Our approach first expands the model’s inputs by augmenting base thermal-hydraulic parameters with physics-based features derived from established correlations. This feature engineering injects domain knowledge, constraining the solution space and promoting convergence to physically plausible solutions. Furthermore, we employ a sophisticated hyperparameter optimization strategy, combining a Sobol sequence with Bayesian optimization, to systematically select a diverse and high-performing set of neural networks for the ensemble. The resulting physics-guided ensemble demonstrates superior performance across all metrics compared to a baseline ensemble, a standard look-up table, and a benchmark neural network. The model produces smoother, more physically consistent predictive trends and provides reliable uncertainty estimates. This framework offers a powerful and broadly applicable tool for CHF prediction, enabling higher-fidelity safety margins and the design of more efficient and reliable thermal management systems.

准确预测临界热流密度（CHF）是包括水冷核反应堆在内的各种高性能热系统设计和安全考虑的关键因素。传统的预测工具，如经验相关性和查找表，在外推或在不同的插值区域时往往缺乏准确性。为了克服这些限制，这项工作引入了一种新的物理指导，优化的深度集成框架，用于具有综合不确定性量化的鲁棒CHF预测。我们的方法首先通过从已建立的相关性中获得基于物理的特征来增加基本热工参数，从而扩展模型的输入。这种特征工程注入了领域知识，限制了解空间，促进了收敛到物理上合理的解。此外，我们采用了一种复杂的超参数优化策略，将Sobol序列与贝叶斯优化相结合，系统地为集成选择了一组多样化和高性能的神经网络。与基线集成、标准查找表和基准神经网络相比，由此产生的物理引导集成在所有指标上都表现出卓越的性能。该模型产生更平滑、更物理一致的预测趋势，并提供可靠的不确定性估计。该框架为CHF预测提供了一个强大且广泛适用的工具，实现了更高保真度的安全裕度，并设计了更高效、更可靠的热管理系统。

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