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Predicting Adoption Probabilities in Social Networks 预测社会网络的采用概率
Pub Date : 2012-10-01 DOI: 10.1287/isre.1120.0461
Xiao Fang, P. H. Hu, Zhepeng Li, Weiyu Tsai
In a social network, adoption probability refers to the probability that a social entity will adopt a product, service, or opinion in the foreseeable future. Such probabilities are central to fundamental issues in social network analysis, including the influence maximization problem. In practice, adoption probabilities have significant implications for applications ranging from social network-based target marketing to political campaigns, yet predicting adoption probabilities has not received sufficient research attention. Building on relevant social network theories, we identify and operationalize key factors that affect adoption decisions: social influence, structural equivalence, entity similarity, and confounding factors. We then develop the locally weighted expectation-maximization method for Naive Bayesian learning to predict adoption probabilities on the basis of these factors. The principal challenge addressed in this study is how to predict adoption probabilities in the presence of confounding factors that are generally unobserved. Using data from two large-scale social networks, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The empirical results also suggest that cascade methods primarily using social influence to predict adoption probabilities offer limited predictive power and that confounding factors are critical to adoption probability predictions.
在社会网络中,采用概率是指社会实体在可预见的未来采用某种产品、服务或意见的概率。这些概率是社会网络分析中基本问题的核心,包括影响最大化问题。在实践中,从基于社交网络的目标营销到政治竞选,采用概率对应用有着重要的影响,然而预测采用概率还没有得到足够的研究关注。在相关社会网络理论的基础上,我们确定并操作影响收养决策的关键因素:社会影响、结构等效、实体相似性和混杂因素。然后,我们开发了朴素贝叶斯学习的局部加权期望最大化方法,以预测基于这些因素的采用概率。本研究解决的主要挑战是如何在通常未观察到的混杂因素存在的情况下预测采用概率。使用两个大型社交网络的数据,我们证明了所提出方法的有效性。实证结果还表明,主要利用社会影响来预测采用概率的级联方法的预测能力有限,混杂因素对采用概率的预测至关重要。
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引用次数: 146
Using Imperfectly Elicited Fractiles for the Estimation of Probability Distribution Parameters 用不完全引出分形估计概率分布参数
Pub Date : 2012-08-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2160349
S. Bansal, G. Gutierrez
We develop direct and indirect analytical approaches to determine the parameters of a distribution using elicited fractile values in the presence of elicitation errors. Both approaches seek to minimize the variance on the errors in the estimation of the parameters of the distribution. In the indirect approach we obtainweights for the elicited fractile values to estimate the moments of the distribution; estimates for the probability distribution parameters can then be obtained indirectly from the moment estimates. The direct approach provides weights to estimate the parameters directly from the elicited fractile values. For both approaches, we show that the weights are independent of the actual parameter values and depend only on the fractile probabilities being elicited when the distribution is a location-scale distribution. We show numerically that both these approaches should be preferred over approaches that ignore elicitation error or elicit only a specific set of fractiles. The parameter invariant weights for an arbitrary set of fractile probabilities provide for a flexible elicitation of probability distributions. Subsequently, we extend the results to other non location-scale distributions including the Johnson family of distributions.
我们开发了直接和间接的分析方法,以确定在存在引出误差的情况下使用引出分形值的分布参数。这两种方法都力求使分布参数估计误差的方差最小。在间接方法中,我们获得了得到的分形值的权重来估计分布的矩;概率分布参数的估计可以从矩估计中间接得到。直接方法提供权重,直接从得到的分形值估计参数。对于这两种方法,我们证明了权重与实际参数值无关,并且仅依赖于当分布是位置尺度分布时得出的分形概率。我们在数值上表明,这两种方法都应该优于忽略引出错误或只引出一组特定粒子的方法。对于任意一组分形概率,参数不变权提供了一种灵活的概率分布推导。随后,我们将结果扩展到其他非位置尺度分布,包括Johnson分布族。
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引用次数: 1
Effectiveness: A Measure of Demand Effect in Productivity Analysis 有效性:生产率分析中需求效应的度量
Pub Date : 2012-05-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2070290
Chia-Yen Lee, Andrew L. Johnson
Demand fluctuations lead to variations in the output levels affecting technical efficiency measures. The present study defines “effective production” and proposes a measure called “effectiveness” to separates the capacity construction and demand processes in a production system. The effectiveness measure complements the efficiency measure which does not capture the demand effect. The Malmquist productivity index is used to measure the demand effects characterized as the difference between the production function associated with efficiency and the demand-truncated production function associated with effectiveness. The proposed profit effectiveness also corrects the bias estimation of profit efficiency caused by ignoring demand. An empirical study about US airlines demonstrates these concepts can be used to describe the strategic positioning and to perform a dynamic analysis. These results show the concept of effectiveness is useful in modeling demand fluctuations and identifying the efforts in demand generation.
需求波动导致影响技术效率措施的产出水平变化。本研究定义了“有效生产”的概念,并提出了一个测度“有效性”来区分生产系统中的能力建设和需求过程。有效性度量是对效率度量的补充,效率度量没有捕捉到需求效应。Malmquist生产率指数用于衡量需求效应,其特征是与效率相关的生产函数与与有效性相关的需求截断生产函数之间的差异。提出的利润效率也纠正了由于忽略需求而造成的利润效率估计偏差。对美国航空公司的实证研究表明,这些概念可以用来描述战略定位,并进行动态分析。这些结果表明,有效性的概念在需求波动建模和确定需求生成过程中的努力方面是有用的。
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引用次数: 2
Making the Best Even Better: How Idea Pool Structure can make the Top Ideas Exceptional 让最好的变得更好:创意池结构如何让顶级创意变得卓越
Pub Date : 2012-05-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1983389
Sanjiv Erat
In any pool of ideas, it is often the case that a small fraction of top ideas have significantly higher quality, both in absolute terms and relative to other ideas in the pool. This study formulates a model of idea pools, and examines the impact of the “structure” of idea pools on the extent to which the top ideas in an idea pool are exceptional. Our results demonstrate that the dispersion of ideas in the pool (defined in terms of the dissimilarity between ideas in the pool) has a positive impact on the value derived from the top ideas. The empirical content of the model is assessed by examining the citations received by top patents in a patent pool, and results consistent with the theoretical model are found. Finally, the study examines the optimal design of idea pools, and managerial rules-of-thumb are derived for the optimal choice of idea pool size, and the dispersion of ideas within the pool.
在任何想法池中,通常都有一小部分顶级想法具有显著更高的质量,无论是从绝对意义上还是相对于其他想法而言。本研究建立了一个创意池模型,并考察了创意池的“结构”对创意池中顶尖创意的例外程度的影响。我们的研究结果表明,池中想法的分散(根据池中想法之间的不相似性来定义)对顶级想法的价值产生了积极的影响。通过对某专利池中排名靠前的专利的被引频次进行检验,得出了与理论模型一致的结论。最后,研究考察了创意池的最优设计,并得出了创意池规模的最优选择和创意池内的分散的管理经验法则。
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引用次数: 1
The Horizontal Fairness Concern of Backup Supplier in a Triadic Supply Chain 三元供应链中备用供应商的横向公平问题
Pub Date : 2012-03-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2015703
Junlin Chen, Xiaobo Zhao, Z. M. Shen
We consider a triadic supply chain, in which a manufacturer can sequentially source from two suppliers: a cheap primary supplier with yield uncertainty risk; and an expensive backup supplier with perfect reliability. After having a contract with the primary supplier, the manufacturer may offer a contract to the backup supplier to mitigate the yield uncertainty of the primary supplier. In such a setting, the backup supplier may have horizontal fairness concerns. We model the contract design problem using a Stackelberg game and characterize optimal decisions for the manufacturer. We provide empirical evidence of horizontal fairness concern from the backup supplier by conducting experiments. Furthermore, the impact of the fairness concern on the supply chain performance is analyzed. The results show that the manufacturer should pay close attention to the fairness concern of the backup supplier, and that the fairness concern does not always benefit the backup supplier.
我们考虑一个三元供应链,其中制造商可以依次从两个供应商处采购:一个具有产量不确定风险的廉价初级供应商;还有一个昂贵而可靠的备用供应商。在与主要供应商签订合同后,制造商可以向备用供应商提供合同,以减轻主要供应商的产量不确定性。在这种情况下,备用供应商可能存在横向公平问题。我们使用Stackelberg博弈对契约设计问题建模,并描述了制造商的最优决策。我们通过实验提供了备用供应商横向公平关注的经验证据。进一步分析了公平问题对供应链绩效的影响。研究结果表明,制造商应密切关注备用供应商的公平关注,而公平关注并不总是对备用供应商有利。
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引用次数: 1
Green Innovation in Technology and Innovation Management – An Exploratory Literature Review 技术中的绿色创新与创新管理——探索性文献综述
Pub Date : 2012-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9310.2011.00672.x
Tim Schiederig, F. Tietze, C. Herstatt
The importance of green innovation management is growing both in practice and in academia. This paper provides a current overview of the existing body of literature in the field of green innovations, identifying the most active scholars, institutions and relevant publications. It also contributes to a clarification of the concept ‘green innovation’. The review explains that three different notions of green, eco/ecological and environmental innovation are used largely synonymously, while the notion of sustainable innovation broadens the concept and includes a social dimension. According to this review, the most active scholars are situated in Europe (especially the Netherlands, Italy and Germany). A ranking is provided of innovation management journals by their total number of green innovation publications. The paper stimulates discussion about the adequacy of research in this subject area (managing green innovation) and the dearth of comprehensive literature reviews.
无论是在实践中还是在学术界,绿色创新管理的重要性都在不断提高。本文提供了绿色创新领域现有文献的当前概述,确定了最活跃的学者、机构和相关出版物。它还有助于澄清“绿色创新”的概念。这篇综述解释说,绿色、生态/生态和环境创新这三个不同的概念在很大程度上是同义使用的,而可持续创新的概念拓宽了这一概念,并包括了一个社会维度。根据这篇综述,最活跃的学者位于欧洲(特别是荷兰、意大利和德国)。根据绿色创新出版物的总数对创新管理期刊进行排名。本文激发了对这一主题领域(管理绿色创新)研究的充分性和全面文献综述的缺乏的讨论。
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引用次数: 713
Impacts of Information Technology on Mass Customization Capability of Manufacturing Plants 信息技术对制造工厂大规模定制能力的影响
Pub Date : 2011-02-17 DOI: 10.1108/01443571111182173
David Xiaosong Peng, Genshen Liu, Gregory R. Heim
Purpose – The impact of information technology (IT) on mass customization (MC) capability has been implied in the literature but seldom subjected to empirical examination. This study theoretically relates four types of IT applications with MC capability and empirically examines these relationships. Design/methodology/approach – This study identifies four types of IT that potentially support MC capability, including product configurator IT, new product development IT, manufacturing IT, and supplier collaboration IT. Drawing on organizational information processing theory, this study associates the four IT types with a manufacturer’s MC capability. A structural equation model is tested using survey data collected from a sample of manufacturing plants that focus on product customization. Findings – The empirical results indicate that three of the four IT types either strongly or marginally support a manufacturer’s MC capability. Research limitations/implications – Data used in this study are cross-sectional in nature. Also, a set of refined IT measures should be developed in future studies. Practical implications – The paper identifies managerial opportunities for investing in IT to support or enhance MC capability.Originality/value – The study is one of the first efforts to empirically examine the impact of multiple types of IT applications on MC capability. The study also develops a classification framework of IT applications in manufacturing plants.
目的-信息技术(IT)对大规模定制(MC)能力的影响已经隐含在文献中,但很少受到实证检验。本研究从理论上将四种类型的IT应用与MC能力联系起来,并对这些关系进行实证检验。设计/方法论/方法——本研究确定了四种可能支持MC能力的IT类型,包括产品配置IT、新产品开发IT、制造IT和供应商协作IT。利用组织信息处理理论,本研究将四种IT类型与制造商的MC能力联系起来。结构方程模型的检验使用调查数据收集了一个样本的制造工厂,专注于产品定制。研究结果-实证结果表明,四种IT类型中的三种或强烈或轻微地支持制造商的MC能力。研究局限性/意义-本研究中使用的数据本质上是横断面的。此外,应在未来的研究中制定一套完善的IT衡量标准。实际意义-该文件确定了投资于信息技术以支持或增强管理能力的管理机会。原创性/价值——该研究是第一次对多种类型的IT应用对企业管理能力的影响进行实证研究。该研究还开发了制造工厂中IT应用的分类框架。
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引用次数: 75
Designing Product Lines with Higher Aggregate Environmental Quality 设计具有更高集料环境质量的生产线
Pub Date : 2011-01-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1744301
V. Krishnan, Paul Lacourbe
Firms that consider designing environmentally sustainable products face technical and market constraints that are not always easy to negotiate. Our goal in this paper is to identify approaches and policies that promote sustainable innovation, under which the design decisions of a firm both maximize its profit and improve the environmental quality of its product line. We model and analyze the problem, and identify three approaches that contribute to sustainable innovation by a firm faced with a heterogeneous market of customers. Our results show that firms are able to achieve the dual goals of profits and environmental quality when (a) the firm's investments in inter-temporal R&D are considered, (b) the environmental policies are more nuanced, and (c) products are designed to cater to the psycho-social needs of their customers.
考虑设计环境可持续产品的公司面临技术和市场限制,这些限制并不总是容易谈判的。本文的目标是确定促进可持续创新的方法和政策,在这种方法和政策下,企业的设计决策既能最大化其利润,又能改善其产品线的环境质量。我们对这个问题进行了建模和分析,并确定了三种有助于面对异质客户市场的公司进行可持续创新的方法。我们的研究结果表明,当(a)考虑企业跨期研发投资时,(b)环境政策更加细致,(c)产品设计迎合客户的心理社会需求时,企业能够实现利润和环境质量的双重目标。
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引用次数: 13
Decentralized Supply Risk Management 分散供应风险管理
Pub Date : 2010-09-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1616969
Goker Aydin, V. Babich, D. Beil, Zhibin (Ben) Yang
In a 2008 survey of 138 companies, 58% reported that they suffered financial losses within the last year due to a supply disruption. This article emphasizes the challenges and opportunities in supply risk management arising from the decentralized nature of supply chains and highlight how supply risks influence the interactions among firms in supply networks, review insights into decentralized supply risk management from the extant academic research and point out important future research directions.
在2008年对138家公司进行的一项调查中,58%的公司报告称,由于供应中断,他们在去年遭受了财务损失。本文强调供应链的分散性给供应风险管理带来的挑战和机遇,强调了供应风险如何影响供应网络中企业之间的互动,回顾了现有学术研究对分散性供应风险管理的见解,并指出了未来的重要研究方向。
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引用次数: 48
Buyback Contracts with Price-Dependent Demands: Effects of Demand Uncertainty 具有价格依赖需求的回购契约:需求不确定性的影响
Pub Date : 2010-02-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1559475
Yingxue Zhao, T. Choi, T. Cheng, S. Sethi, Shouyang Wang
We explore buyback contracts in a supplier–retailer supply chain where the retailer faces a price-dependent downward-sloping demand curve subject to uncertainty. Differentiated from the existing literature, this work focuses on analytically examining how the uncertainty level embedded in market demand affects the applicability of buyback contracts in supply chain management. To this end, we seek to characterize the buyback model in terms of only the demand uncertainty level (DUL). With this new research perspective, we have obtained some interesting new findings for buyback. For example, we find that (1) even though the supply chain’s efficiency will change over the DUL with a wholesale price-only contract, it will be maintained constantly at that of the corresponding deterministic demand setting with buyback, regardless of the DUL; (2) in the practice of buyback, the buyback issuer should adjust only the buyback price in reaction to different DULs while leave the wholesale price unchanged as that in the corresponding deterministic demand setting; (3) only in the demand setting with an intermediate level of the uncertainty (which is identified quantitatively in Theorem 5), buyback provision is beneficial simultaneously for the supplier, the retailer, and the supply chain system, while this is not the case in the other demand settings. This work reveals that DUL can be a critical factor affecting the applicability of supply chain contracts.
我们研究了供应商-零售商供应链中的回购契约,其中零售商面临着受不确定性影响的价格依赖的向下倾斜的需求曲线。与现有文献不同,本研究侧重于分析市场需求中的不确定性水平如何影响供应链管理中回购合同的适用性。为此,我们试图仅根据需求不确定性水平(DUL)来表征回购模型。在这个新的研究视角下,我们获得了一些有趣的关于回购的新发现。例如,我们发现(1)尽管供应链的效率会随着纯批发价格合同的需求需求而变化,但它将始终保持在具有回购的相应确定性需求设置的效率上,而与需求需求无关;(2)在回购实践中,回购发行人应仅根据不同的dul调整回购价格,而保持批发价格不变,与相应的确定性需求设置保持一致;(3)只有在不确定性处于中间水平的需求设置中(在定理5中定量确定),回购条款对供应商、零售商和供应链系统同时有利,而在其他需求设置中则并非如此。这项工作表明,DUL可以是影响供应链合同适用性的关键因素。
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引用次数: 51
期刊
Technology (Elmsford, N.Y.)
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