A frailty checkup program (FC), a community-based frailty prevention initiative led by trained senior volunteers (FC supporters), has been implemented in over 100 municipalities in Japan. Participants create individual result sheets by marking blue signals for positive responses and red signals for negative responses. This cohort study aimed to examine the association between FC results and the risk of incident disability and mortality among community-dwelling older adults. A total of 3476 older adults (mean age, 73.0 ± 6.1 years, 74 % female) participated in FC in three municipalities between April 2017 and February 2023. At the FC sites, trained supporters evaluated 22 FC items (nutritional status, oral function, physical function, and social status). Outcome information on long-term care needs (incident disability) and mortality was collected from public records until November 2023. During the follow-up (median, 1088 days), 254 participants (7.3 %) developed incident disabilities, and 138 (4.0 %) died. A higher total number of red signals was associated with increased risk; individuals with ≥8 red signals had an increased risk of incident disability (adjusted hazard ratio [95 % confidence interval], 2.93 [2.08–4.12]). We calculated a weighted predictive probability using eight items particularly associated with increased risk of disability and mortality (5.39 [3.82–7.61], 1.94 [1.11–3.40], respectively, in the high-risk group). FC results in community-dwelling older adults were associated with a higher risk of incident disability and mortality. This study highlights the potential of the FC program in identifying high-risk individuals and guiding them to appropriate community-based interventions.
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