Jinkogaku kenkyu最新文献

The author extends a technique for the indirect estimation of mortality originally developed by Courbage and Fargues. The technique is applied to national data from 35 developing countries for the year 1975. "Nine families of model life tables constructed by Coale and Demeny and the United Nations were applied to each of the object populations, and the level of mortality corresponding to the value of PMI (proportional mortality indicator: percentage of deaths at the ages 50 years and over) obtained from death registration data, was determined for each family." The author notes that the technique does not require assumptions regarding features of the population in question and is applicable to a non-stable population or an open population without any adjustment. (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Five formulas of spline interpolation and their applications to demographic data are introduced. "The formulas are applied to (1) interpolating and smoothing values of life table functions....(2) interpolating births by five-year age groups of mothers into single ages....(3) interpolating cause-specific deaths by five-year age groups into single ages....[and] (4) interpolating and smoothing two-dimensional demographic data e.g. mortality rates and expectations of life by year and age." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

"Co-residence of parents and grown-up (especially married) children has been one of the most important factors that affect the trends in household formation in recent Japan. This article reports the proportion co-residing...using a nation-wide large-sample household survey data set containing about 300,000 persons in each year.... The proportion of parents who co-reside with children...had remarkably decreased during the period 1975 to 1985, especially for younger elders regardless of their marital status.... On the contrary, the proportion co-residing of married children aged 20-39 with their parents had been constant or slightly rising...during the same period. These two opposite trends can be interpreted as follows: though the preference for co-residence has declined both for parents and for children, the child availability for parents has barely changed and the downward trend in preference has directly appeared [in] the proportion co-residing; while the parent availability for children has increased owing to the decrease in number of siblings to be balanced with the decreasing preference." (SUMMARY IN JPN)

The author considers the impact of demographic aging in Japan on the social security system and on economic growth. It is argued that "First of all, as the cost of social security (including social services) increases remarkably at the earlier stage of ageing, the disposable (after tax) income and private consumption of the present labour force generation tend to increase at a lower growth rate than that of the GNP....Secondly if pension systems are based on terminal funding schemes, the ageing of the population increases savings (net increase of the amount of the pension funds) at the earlier stage of the ageing of the population. Thirdly, there is a time lag between the increase of social security benefits and the decrease in the personal savings ratio. The high ratio of savings and the shortage of aggregate demand as well as the high pressure for export in...recent Japan can partly be attributed to the above factors." Possible future economic scenarios as demographic ageing in Japan proceeds are described, and policies to avert anticipated problems are outlined. (SUMMARY IN JPN)