Population bulletin of the United Nations最新文献

This paper explores the relationship between population growth rates, government policies, and social attitudes in 3 regions: Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. The comparative success of family planning programs in certain countries of South Asia (most notably India and Sri Lanka) can be partly ascribed to their long tradition of government leadership. In addition, families in those countries have strong incentives to educate their children. On the other hand, in North Africa and the Middle East, high levels of urbanization have had antinatalist effects, which are offset by very low levels of girls' schooling and of female employment outside the home. In Sub-Saharan Africa, high fertility is sustained by the structure of the family, with its tendency to separate reproductive decision-making from responsibility for child-rearing. In addition, governments there have had a comparatively weaker tradition in areas such as family behavior.

This paper reviews recent new trends in population structure in the world and its major regions in order to access the determinants of those trends and explore issues regarding the recent and projected changes in the age structure of population and the relationships of those changes to social and economic development. In particular, the paper compares the change in age structure projected by the Population Division of the UN Secretariat in its most recent 3 series--namely, those completed in 1984, 1986, and 1988. By and large, the most recent UN assessment projects that a larger proportion of the world population will be aged 60 and over in 2000 and 2025 than was previously estimated. Those changes in projections can be observed for the world and for the more developed countries as a whole, and for the regions of Africa, Latin America, Northern America, East Asia, Europe, and Oceania. While the recommendations of the International Conference on Population called attention to the importance of changes in population structure, this paper recommends urgent government action in planning social programs for the aged because of the greater eminence of population aging in many settings. The case of Japan is used to illustrate the growing importance of increases in life expectancy as a determinant of age structure changes (in relation to fertility decline), a point that is reinforced through a cruder decomposition of UN estimates and projections for several European countries.

This paper presents findings on patterns of age of 1st marriage and age of 1st birth for 41 countries participating in the World Fertility Survey program. The age distribution of 1st marriage and 1st birth is summarized with 3 statistics: the mean, the standard deviation, and the proportion ever experiencing the event. The particular method of estimation is based on a model that ensures that estimates for all cohorts are comparable, even though some women have completed their reproductive experience while others have not. The analysis provides insights into sources of error in the reporting of age at 1st birth. In addition, trends and cross-country patterns are documented and conclusions are drawn about the adequacy of these statistics for the description of patterns of age at 1st birth and age at 1st marriage.

A population census is the primary source of demographic information for every country. In planning for the 1990 round of censuses, the international community has adopted a number of recommendations for changes for countries and regions to consider in planning for and carrying out their census. In particular, alternatives for the measurement of economic activity have been proposed in order to obtain a more realistic indication of employment and unemployment in countries where the agriculture and informal sectors are important. New recommendations have also been made for the measurement of stocks and flows of international migrants. In each of the major regions, recommendations have been adapted to local concerns. Preparations are being made for technical cooperation in the 190 census round, and a calendar of the census dates in all countries is shown to be nearly complete.

This paper studies completed parity distributions for all the industrialized and developing countries that participated in the World Fertility Survey. This is done by means of a table based on parity calculated for all ever-married women above age 40 by educational and residential subcategories. The information is also used to compare mean family and mean sibship sizes and to study changes in the concentration of reproduction independent of the level of fertility. The cross- section of countries considered implies that, as fertility declines, the transition from high to low fertility is associated with an increase in the concentration; i.e., a smaller proportion of women having 1/2 the children. The big exception is China, where fertility declined steeply without an increase in concentration.

By the mid-1960s, countries that accounted for 66% of the population of developing countries had adopted policies designed to reduce their rates of population growth; by 1986, the corresponding figure had reached 78%. In the developing regions as a whole, fertility has fallen by more than 30% since 1950. Contraceptive use has risen sharply, and there has been more than 10-fold increase in the number of couples in developing countries who use contraceptives. There is a very strong association between use of contraception and fertility in developing countries. Social and economic modernization is also taking place, although quite unevenly in the developing regions, so that the relationship of modernization is fertility is not very easy to demonstrate. In general, the experience of the developing countries suggest that a strong family- planning program effort can, and does, lead to a more rapid fertility decline than would be likely based only on socioeconomic variables. The effectiveness of family-planning programs can be enhanced by increasing the range of choice of contraceptive methods offered. However, it is difficult to disentangle the various factors that contribute to the effectiveness of family-planning programs. The public sector is the main supplier of family-planning services in most developing countries, and there is no clear trend towards the reliance on the private sector.

During the 2nd half of the 20th century, there has been a marked growth in awareness of the problems associated with population growth. The compromise consensus reached at Bucharest and reaffirmed at Mexico City set limited goals against which progress can be partially measured. Acceptance of the need to formulate population goals and policies grew, especially in the less developed countries. Progress was made in reducing mortality, but the goals set by the international community were not fully met. Results in the area of fertility were markedly heterogenous between regions. Rather more was accomplished in restraining the rapid growth of the urban agglomerations, and in some countries there is greater freedom of internal migration, although coercive resettlement policies are still found in a few countries. For policies to succeed, it is essential to reach a national consensus on population issues. Research and debate on population issues in international forums such as the conferences at Bucharest and Mexico City can contribute to the attainment of a national consensus.

"The overall downward trend in African mortality is interrupted by recurring epidemics. This article investigates the nature of those temporary fluctuations, using cause-of-death data drawn from deaths registered in Bamako [Mali] over an 11-year period. The use of time-series analysis produces findings that can be used in three ways: first, to provide a short-term forecasting tool for public health officials; secondly, to clarify the relationship between the cause of death and exogenous mortality factors, particularly climatic and economic; thirdly, to assist in the analysis of synergies between disease and malnutrition, and intra-household transmission as an aggravating factor contributing to the seriousness of a disease."