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The importance of, and pitfalls in, measuring globalization 衡量全球化的重要性和陷阱
Pub Date : 2007-02-09 DOI: 10.3233/SJU-2006-232-304
J. Landefeld, Obie G. Whichard
In recent years, globalization has been the subject of an increasingly intense public dialog, as international trade and investment have grown and as patterns of trade and investment have evolved and assumed new forms. Economic statisticians are charged with compiling information on globalization that is relevant, timely, and accurate. This paper discusses issues that may be encountered in carrying out this mandate with respect to two major ways in which globalization manifests itself in real terms - cross-border trade in goods and services and foreign direct investment and the resulting international activities of multinational companies. The paper assesses the importance of measurement and examines some of the pitfalls that may be encountered in constructing indicators of globalization and in using those indicators to quantify and describe the phenomenon and gauge its economic impact. The discussion is informed by the experiences of the United States in developing this information.
近年来,随着国际贸易和投资的增长以及贸易和投资模式的演变和采取新的形式,全球化已成为日益激烈的公共对话的主题。经济统计学家负责编纂有关全球化的相关、及时和准确的信息。本文讨论了在执行这项任务时可能遇到的问题,涉及全球化实际表现的两种主要方式- -货物和服务的跨国界贸易和外国直接投资以及由此产生的跨国公司的国际活动。本文评估了测量的重要性,并检查了在构建全球化指标和使用这些指标量化和描述这一现象并衡量其经济影响时可能遇到的一些陷阱。讨论参考了美国在发展这方面的经验。
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引用次数: 5
The relationship between different price indexes: a set of evidence from inflation targeting countries 不同价格指数之间的关系:一组来自通货膨胀目标制国家的证据
Pub Date : 2007-02-09 DOI: 10.3233/SJU-2006-232-303
Y. Akdi, H. Berument, S. Cilasun, Hasan Olgun
The possible long-run relationships between the Consumer Price Index and the Wholesale Price Index are analyzed for three inflation targeting countries - Canada, Sweden and the UK - using three different statistical techniques. The Engle- Granger test finds cointegration only for Sweden. The Johansen's test and the model-free and seasonality robust periodogram based test conclusively show that the two price indexes are not cointegrated in the three countries included in the sample. Hence, the values of these indexes may consistently diverge over time. However, the two price indexes move together in the short run. These findings have some implications for the success of inflation targeting monetary policies.
本文使用三种不同的统计技术,分析了加拿大、瑞典和英国这三个通货膨胀目标制国家的消费者价格指数和批发价格指数之间可能存在的长期关系。恩格尔-格兰杰检验只发现瑞典存在协整。约翰森检验和基于无模型和季节性稳健周期图的检验最终表明,在样本所包括的三个国家中,这两个价格指数不是协整的。因此,这些指数的值可能会随着时间的推移而不断偏离。然而,这两个价格指数在短期内走势一致。这些发现对以通胀为目标的货币政策的成功有一定的启示。
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引用次数: 9
The re-design of the Dutch CPI 荷兰CPI的重新设计
Pub Date : 2007-02-09 DOI: 10.3233/SJU-2006-232-302
Jan de Haan
Statistics Netherlands has decided to re-design the Consumer Price index (CPI). The aim is to improve its quality and bring the CPI more in line with a cost of living index. This article provides background information on the (total survey) re-design. It focuses on the bottle-necks in the methodology and the production process of the current Dutch CPI, and discusses the changes planned for 2007.
荷兰统计局决定重新设计消费者价格指数(CPI)。其目的是提高其质量,使CPI与生活成本指数更加一致。本文提供了(总调查)重新设计的背景资料。它侧重于目前荷兰CPI的方法和生产过程中的瓶颈,并讨论了2007年计划的变化。
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引用次数: 9
How to improve the quality of regional accounts estimates 如何提高区域账户估算的质量
Pub Date : 2007-02-09 DOI: 10.3233/SJU-2006-232-309
H. Nijmeijer
In the European Union, tens of billions of euros are spent on regional policy every year. A major part of this amount is allocated on the basis of regional gross domestic product per capita. Because of the administrative use of this statistical estimate, the requirements for the quality of these figures are very strict. This quality is, however, not easy to specify by means of a confidence interval. What can be done to monitor the quality as a basis for improvement? In this paper an inventory is drawn up of recent work on the quality of regional accounts estimates. Special attention is paid to the instrument of process tables. In the last five years process tables have been developed for the national accounts (GNI Committee) as well as the regional accounts. The focus of the regional accounts process tables is on the treatment of multi-regional companies and the sources for top-down methods. The regional accounts should be compiled in close cooperation with the national accounts. The quality of the national accounts estimates and – indirectly – the regional accounts estimates, could be improved by the findings of the regional accounts compilation process.
在欧盟,每年在区域政策上花费数百亿欧元。这笔款项的大部分是根据区域人均国内生产总值分配的。由于这种统计估计的行政使用,对这些数字的质量要求非常严格。然而,这种质量不容易通过置信区间来指定。如何监控质量作为改进的基础?本文列出了最近关于区域帐户估计质量的工作。特别注意的是仪表的过程表。在过去五年中,为国民核算(国民总收入委员会)和区域核算编制了进程表。区域会计流程表的重点是对多区域公司的处理和自上而下方法的来源。区域核算应与国民核算密切合作编制。国民核算估计的质量以及间接区域核算估计的质量可以通过区域核算编制过程的结果得到改善。
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引用次数: 2
Systems of price indices and supporting frameworks 价格指标体系和配套框架
Pub Date : 2007-02-09 DOI: 10.3233/SJU-2006-232-301
D. Fenwick
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引用次数: 2
Problems of measurement and analysis in the national accounts under rapidly growing globalization 快速发展的全球化背景下国民经济核算中的计量和分析问题
Pub Date : 2007-02-09 DOI: 10.3233/SJU-2006-232-305
Soli Peleg, Shimon Arieli
Important problems of measurement and analysis in the national accounts have emerged in recent years due to rapidly growing globalisation of production, expanding trade in services, performance of international transactions and flow of information over the internet. The paper addresses the measurement problems in connection with: Joint international production, outsourcing across borders, growing flows of services and transactions that are not covered by existing surveys and administrational data, complicated transactions in connection with for example mergers and swaps of stocks. The problems of analysis of growth and productivity under growing globalisation of production are also presented. International recommendations for coverage and methods of measurement currently do not give satisfactory solutions to these problems. The experience with these difficulties in Israel have resulted in the development of possible solutions, which include use of new sources and measurement methods, construction of decision trees for registration of certain transactions, and linkage to statistical frameworks abroad.
近年来,由于生产全球化的迅速发展、服务贸易的扩大、国际交易的执行以及信息在互联网上的流动,国民核算中出现了衡量和分析的重要问题。该文件论述了下列方面的计量问题:联合国际生产、跨境外包、现有调查和行政数据未涵盖的日益增长的服务流动和交易、例如与合并和股票互换有关的复杂交易。在生产日益全球化的背景下,对增长和生产率的分析也提出了一些问题。国际上关于覆盖范围和测量方法的建议目前并不能令人满意地解决这些问题。以色列在处理这些困难方面的经验导致了可能的解决办法的发展,其中包括使用新的来源和计量方法,为某些交易的登记建立决策树,以及与国外统计框架的联系。
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引用次数: 2
Canada's recent experience in constructing regional economic accounts 加拿大最近在建立区域经济核算方面的经验
Pub Date : 2007-02-09 DOI: 10.3233/SJU-2006-232-310
Meir Salem, Y. Siddiqi
The first part of this paper describes how the systems and programs that feed Canada's sub-national economic accounts were built at Statistics Canada. A carefully chosen overview of challenges in developing these accounts offers insights into the issues and problems involved in building the statistical infrastructure that supports the present national and sub-national economic accounts. The second part of the paper deals with conceptual issues and challenges in developing a regional input-output framework that is capable integrating the sub-national data discussed earlier using national accounting principals and conventions. 1. Developing sub-national economic accounts for regional analysis 1.1. The evolution of sub-national accounts The sub-national input-output accounts (domestically known as provincial and territorial accounts) are the most comprehensive and detailed set of economic statistics in Canada and permit a wide variety of regional and inter-regional economic analysis. They are also benchmarks to other sub-national accounts and are integrated with other national accounts components. In other words, both the accounting concepts and the statistical outputs of Canada's national and sub-national programs are reconciled to be consistent with one another. These accounts evolved out of the national programs of income and expenditure accounts and input- output accounts which have a long history in Canada. Sub-national accounts in Canada started with the development of income and expenditure accounts by province beginning in 1981. These accounts consisted of components that make up the expenditure on GDP (such as personal expenditure on goods and services, fixed capital formation and government current expenditures) as well as components that make up income based GDP (such as wages, profits and depreciation). These accounts retained the concepts and definitions of the accounts at the national level and replicated their framework, but were constructed with more limited informational resources, since most surveys were not designed to properly reflect sub-national conditions. Furthermore, these accounts lacked the critically important regional trade flows, a short-coming that was rectified in the new sub-national accounts.
本文的第一部分描述了加拿大统计局如何建立支持加拿大次国民经济账户的系统和程序。精心挑选的关于发展这些帐户所面临的挑战的概述,提供了对建立支持目前国家和地方经济帐户的统计基础设施所涉及的问题和问题的见解。本文的第二部分涉及开发区域投入产出框架的概念问题和挑战,该框架能够利用国民核算原则和惯例整合前面讨论的次国家数据。1. 发展地方经济核算进行区域分析。次国民投入产出账户(国内称为省和地区账户)是加拿大最全面和详细的经济统计数据集,允许进行各种区域和区域间经济分析。它们也是其他次国民账户的基准,并与其他国民账户组成部分相结合。换句话说,加拿大国家和地方计划的会计概念和统计结果都是相互协调一致的。这些账户是由加拿大历史悠久的国家收支账户和投入产出账户演变而来的。加拿大的次国民账户始于1981年各省收入和支出账户的发展。这些账户包括构成国内生产总值支出的组成部分(如个人在商品和服务上的支出、固定资本形成和政府经常支出)以及构成基于收入的国内生产总值的组成部分(如工资、利润和折旧)。这些帐户保留了国家一级帐户的概念和定义,并复制了国家一级帐户的框架,但其资料资源较为有限,因为大多数调查的目的不是为了适当反映次国家的情况。此外,这些账户缺乏至关重要的区域贸易流动,这一缺陷在新的次国民账户中得到了纠正。
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引用次数: 1
Goods for processing: a pragmatic approach 用于加工的货物:务实的方法
Pub Date : 2007-02-09 DOI: 10.3233/SJU-2006-232-306
David Hobbs
‘Goods for processing’ (‘toll processing’) has the potential to cause mismeasurement of key economic statistics. This paper outlines practical, economic and taxation aspects of the issue and describes the pragmatic approach adopted by the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS). This paper concludes that it is clear that ‘goods for processing’ / toll processing presents a range of practical and statistical problems that need to be addressed via international agreement on the definition, treatment and measurement of such activity. As part of the deliberations towards the revision of the System of National Accounts 1993, some progress has been made towards deciding upon a common treatment but there remains a degree of disagreement and some unease about the practical implications of the recommended revised approach. The ONS pragmatic approach, described within the paper, is put forward as an example of how one country’s NSI has dealt with the issue to date.
“用于加工的货物”(“收费加工”)有可能导致关键经济统计数据的错误测量。本文概述了该问题的实际、经济和税收方面,并描述了英国国家统计局(ONS)采用的务实方法。本文的结论是,很明显,“用于加工的货物”/收费加工提出了一系列实际和统计问题,需要通过关于此类活动的定义、处理和测量的国际协议来解决。作为修订1993年国民核算制度的审议工作的一部分,在决定共同处理办法方面取得了一些进展,但是对于建议的订正办法的实际影响仍然存在一定程度的分歧和一些不安。论文中描述的国家统计局的务实方法,被作为一个国家的国家统计局迄今为止如何处理这一问题的例子。
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引用次数: 1
Measuring violence against women in Australia 衡量澳大利亚对妇女的暴力行为
Pub Date : 2006-06-14 DOI: 10.3233/SJU-2005-223-405
Horst Posselt
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引用次数: 5
Italian survey on violence against women 意大利关于暴力侵害妇女行为的调查
Pub Date : 2006-06-14 DOI: 10.3233/SJU-2005-223-407
Maria Giuseppina Muratore, L. Sabbadini
The National Survey on violence against women originates from the need to disclose the problem on violence against women in Italy in terms of its prevalence, incidence, rate and nature. This is an important topic that still needs further investigation. Women rarely disclose what has happened to them and even more rarely report to the police or seek help in the crisis centres or from other social services. It is important to study domestic violence by using dedicated surveys that take into consideration all relevant aspects with regard to the variables measured, way of posing questions, funnelling effects, use of specific terms. Surveys on violence against women are designed in such a way that helps to put the woman at ease so that she can build confidence with the interviewer. Interviewers are trained to deal with these cases and to identify them, as it is quite common that women victims of domestic violence are not always aware of what happens to them, especially in cases of more subtle forms of violence such as psychological and economic violence. The paper describes the different phases for the implementation of the Italian Violence against Women Survey, focusing special attention on the qualitative relevance of the data collected. 1. The project phase Official data gathered with criminal statistics do not provide the needed evidence on the phenomena of violence and, above all, on domestic violence. Violence in the family setting is still an underreported and understudied social problem affecting millions of women all over the world (14). Violence against women exists in all societies, in all cultures and religions and in all social classes. According to UNICEF estimates every second woman will be abused in the family context during her life. This topic needs further investigation. Women rarely disclose what has happened to them and even more rarely report to the police or seek help in the crisis centres or from other social services. Recommendations and policies at the national and international levels have provided useful guidelines for the implementation of laws and services, for the protection of women and their children (EU Reccomandation Rec (2002) 5 of the Committee of Ministers to member states on the protection of women against violence). Learning about the prevalence and nature of domestic violence its consequences, as well as the characteristics of those involved, helps developing at an institutional and legal level, the policies and services to protect those most in need. In Italy, there is also a considerable demand for information on the prevalence rate of domestic violence on behalf of political and social agencies. Violence against women, and in particular domestic violence is a sensitive issue hard to address in terms of gathering reliable data, identifying its different forms and avoiding underestimation of its prevalence rate. Therefore a special study is required to meet these features. The National Survey on violence again
关于对妇女的暴力行为的全国调查源于有必要披露意大利对妇女的暴力行为的普遍性、发生率、比率和性质。这是一个需要进一步研究的重要课题。妇女很少透露发生在她们身上的事情,更很少向警察报告或向危机中心或其他社会服务机构寻求帮助。重要的是通过专门的调查来研究家庭暴力,这些调查考虑到与所测量的变量、提出问题的方式、漏斗效应、具体术语的使用有关的所有有关方面。针对妇女的暴力行为调查的设计方式有助于使妇女放松,以便她能够建立对采访者的信心。采访者接受过处理这些案件和识别这些案件的培训,因为家庭暴力的妇女受害者通常并不总是知道她们身上发生了什么,特别是在诸如心理和经济暴力等较为微妙的暴力形式的情况下。本文描述了实施意大利暴力侵害妇女行为调查的不同阶段,特别关注所收集数据的质量相关性。1. 与犯罪统计数据一起收集的官方数据不能提供关于暴力现象,尤其是关于家庭暴力的必要证据。家庭暴力仍然是一个影响全世界数百万妇女的未被充分报道和研究的社会问题(14)。对妇女的暴力行为存在于所有社会、所有文化和宗教以及所有社会阶层中。据联合国儿童基金会估计,每两名妇女中就有一名在其一生中受到家庭虐待。这个课题需要进一步的研究。妇女很少透露发生在她们身上的事情,更很少向警察报告或向危机中心或其他社会服务机构寻求帮助。国家和国际两级的建议和政策为执行保护妇女及其儿童的法律和服务提供了有用的指导方针(欧盟部长委员会关于保护妇女免受暴力侵害的第5号欧盟建议(2002年))。了解家庭暴力的普遍程度和性质及其后果,以及相关人员的特点,有助于在体制和法律层面制定政策和服务,以保护那些最需要帮助的人。在意大利,代表政治和社会机构对家庭暴力发生率的资料也有相当大的需求。对妇女的暴力行为,特别是家庭暴力是一个敏感问题,很难在收集可靠数据、确定其不同形式和避免低估其流行率方面加以解决。因此,需要专门的研究来满足这些特征。关于对妇女的暴力行为的全国调查源于有必要披露意大利对妇女的暴力行为的普遍性、发生率、比率和性质。
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引用次数: 13
期刊
Statistical journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
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