{"title":"The relational Gompertz model in detecting the recent changes of fertility in Egypt.","authors":"M N Abdel Fattah","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":85687,"journal":{"name":"The Egyptian population and family planning review","volume":"27 2","pages":"82-101"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22039113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
"Data on in- and out-migration in Egypt by governorate and on variables believed to interact with migration are examined. The purpose is to identify the dimensions through which the basic demographic phenomenon can be rationally structured. This objective is approached through a general multivariate analysis technique known as canonical correlation analysis....A number of variables believed to act as determinants of migration are used and arbitrarily classified into four groups to represent four distinct migration profiles, namely, sociodemographic, economic, urbanization, and health profiles.... The analysis shows that the economic profile of migration is the most pronounced one of the four profiles examined."
{"title":"Socio-economic and urbanization profiles of internal migration in Egypt: a canonical correlation analysis.","authors":"M G El-rouby","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>\"Data on in- and out-migration in Egypt by governorate and on variables believed to interact with migration are examined. The purpose is to identify the dimensions through which the basic demographic phenomenon can be rationally structured. This objective is approached through a general multivariate analysis technique known as canonical correlation analysis....A number of variables believed to act as determinants of migration are used and arbitrarily classified into four groups to represent four distinct migration profiles, namely, sociodemographic, economic, urbanization, and health profiles.... The analysis shows that the economic profile of migration is the most pronounced one of the four profiles examined.\"</p>","PeriodicalId":85687,"journal":{"name":"The Egyptian population and family planning review","volume":"27 2","pages":"102-23"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22039683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1993-12-01DOI: 10.21608/mskas.1993.303393
M. Hussein
Both fertility and mortality in Egypt have declined since 1900. The crude death rate (CDR) has, however, fallen far more than the crude birth rate (CBR), thus causing rapid population growth in the country over the century. The author applies a class of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to analyze a time series of CBR and CDR, deriving predicted values for both CBR and CDR in Egypt over the period 1992-2010. The predictions are used to get predicted values for the natural increase rate over the period. The procedure predicts a steady, but slow decline in the crude death rate coinciding with the original crude death rate time series since World War II, while the predicted values for crude birth rate will continue to move up and down in keeping with the original data reaching approximately 31 per 1000. The rate of natural increase will thus remain high, reaching 26/1000 for the year 2010. National policies and programs aiming to reduce this rate of natural increase should focus upon reducing the crude birth rate which remains extremely high. A reduction of one per thousand annually is a feasible target capable of rendering the goal of 10 per 1000 natural increase. Reducing infant mortality, enhancing family planning programs, and improving socioeconomic levels are the main tools to that end.
{"title":"Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010.","authors":"M. Hussein","doi":"10.21608/mskas.1993.303393","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21608/mskas.1993.303393","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Both fertility and mortality in Egypt have declined since 1900. The crude death rate (CDR) has, however, fallen far more than the crude birth rate (CBR), thus causing rapid population growth in the country over the century. The author applies a class of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to analyze a time series of CBR and CDR, deriving predicted values for both CBR and CDR in Egypt over the period 1992-2010. The predictions are used to get predicted values for the natural increase rate over the period. The procedure predicts a steady, but slow decline in the crude death rate coinciding with the original crude death rate time series since World War II, while the predicted values for crude birth rate will continue to move up and down in keeping with the original data reaching approximately 31 per 1000. The rate of natural increase will thus remain high, reaching 26/1000 for the year 2010. National policies and programs aiming to reduce this rate of natural increase should focus upon reducing the crude birth rate which remains extremely high. A reduction of one per thousand annually is a feasible target capable of rendering the goal of 10 per 1000 natural increase. Reducing infant mortality, enhancing family planning programs, and improving socioeconomic levels are the main tools to that end.\u0000","PeriodicalId":85687,"journal":{"name":"The Egyptian population and family planning review","volume":"70 1","pages":"67-81"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68553130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010.","authors":"M A Hussein","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":85687,"journal":{"name":"The Egyptian population and family planning review","volume":"27 2","pages":"67-81"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22039112","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1993-12-01DOI: 10.21608/mskas.1993.303397
M. G. El-rouby
"Data on in- and out-migration in Egypt by governorate and on variables believed to interact with migration are examined. The purpose is to identify the dimensions through which the basic demographic phenomenon can be rationally structured. This objective is approached through a general multivariate analysis technique known as canonical correlation analysis....A number of variables believed to act as determinants of migration are used and arbitrarily classified into four groups to represent four distinct migration profiles, namely, sociodemographic, economic, urbanization, and health profiles.... The analysis shows that the economic profile of migration is the most pronounced one of the four profiles examined."
{"title":"Socio-economic and urbanization profiles of internal migration in Egypt: a canonical correlation analysis.","authors":"M. G. El-rouby","doi":"10.21608/mskas.1993.303397","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21608/mskas.1993.303397","url":null,"abstract":"\"Data on in- and out-migration in Egypt by governorate and on variables believed to interact with migration are examined. The purpose is to identify the dimensions through which the basic demographic phenomenon can be rationally structured. This objective is approached through a general multivariate analysis technique known as canonical correlation analysis....A number of variables believed to act as determinants of migration are used and arbitrarily classified into four groups to represent four distinct migration profiles, namely, sociodemographic, economic, urbanization, and health profiles.... The analysis shows that the economic profile of migration is the most pronounced one of the four profiles examined.\"","PeriodicalId":85687,"journal":{"name":"The Egyptian population and family planning review","volume":"10 1","pages":"102-23"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68553361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of education on fertility according to region and contraceptive use.","authors":"Y M Mahgoub, M A Hussein","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":85687,"journal":{"name":"The Egyptian population and family planning review","volume":"27 1","pages":"19-66"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22028249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Factors affecting the probability and timing of parity progression in Egypt.","authors":"M Khalifa, A Farahat","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":85687,"journal":{"name":"The Egyptian population and family planning review","volume":"27 1","pages":"2-18"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22028250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1992-12-01DOI: 10.21608/mskas.1992.303597
M. G. El-rouby, M. Hussein
Data on duration of pregnancy prior to abortion (loss during the first 6 months) or stillbirth (loss after 7 or more months of pregnancy) from a national demographic survey undertaken in Egypt in 1980 (of 12,749 pregnancies, 1378 ended in abortion and 293 in stillbirth) were analyzed in the context of hazard function (failure rate) models. Such models are generally used in demography to estimate statistical properties of distributions. This report describes the concepts of life time distribution and related functional forms. It then describes the fitting method used (the hazard plotting method which provides a simple graphical means for obtaining estimates of distributions of time to failure data with different failure models). After discussing the method application and findings, the report ends with information on parameters estimation and goodness of fit testing.
{"title":"Pregnancy wastage among Egyptian females: a failure rate model.","authors":"M. G. El-rouby, M. Hussein","doi":"10.21608/mskas.1992.303597","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21608/mskas.1992.303597","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Data on duration of pregnancy prior to abortion (loss during the first 6 months) or stillbirth (loss after 7 or more months of pregnancy) from a national demographic survey undertaken in Egypt in 1980 (of 12,749 pregnancies, 1378 ended in abortion and 293 in stillbirth) were analyzed in the context of hazard function (failure rate) models. Such models are generally used in demography to estimate statistical properties of distributions. This report describes the concepts of life time distribution and related functional forms. It then describes the fitting method used (the hazard plotting method which provides a simple graphical means for obtaining estimates of distributions of time to failure data with different failure models). After discussing the method application and findings, the report ends with information on parameters estimation and goodness of fit testing.\u0000","PeriodicalId":85687,"journal":{"name":"The Egyptian population and family planning review","volume":"26 2 1","pages":"83-101"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1992-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68553010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimation of parity progression ratios from survey data on birth intervals in Egypt.","authors":"M El-shalakani","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":85687,"journal":{"name":"The Egyptian population and family planning review","volume":"26 2","pages":"67-82"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1992-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22039499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1992-12-01DOI: 10.21608/mskas.1992.303596
M. El-shalakani
Data from the 1980 Egyptian Fertility Survey on open and closed birth intervals were used to estimate parity progression ratios by area of residence and maternal age. Mean age at last birth was found to be positively related to final parity. Older women had larger numbers of children, and rural women ended childbearing later and began childbearing earlier than urban women. The minimum value for a first parity was 43.4 months, and the maximum value of women with a parity of 7 was 67.4 months. Parity progression ratios (PPR) were computed based on a simplification of Srinivasan's methods based on open and closed birth intervals. PPRs were higher in rural areas and tended to decrease with an increase in parity, with the exception of a parity of 8. 52% of women with a parity of 6 would be likely to advance to a higher parity: 63% in urban and 34% in rural areas. 61.1% of women 30-39 years old had completed their last births, and 2.6% of women 45-49 years old had completed childbearing. When age was controlled, the closed birth interval was a better predictor of parity than the open birth interval. Parity explained 15% of the variation in the open birth interval and 26% of the variance in the closed birth interval. Egyptian women have maintained high fertility.
{"title":"Estimation of parity progression ratios from survey data on birth intervals in Egypt.","authors":"M. El-shalakani","doi":"10.21608/mskas.1992.303596","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21608/mskas.1992.303596","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Data from the 1980 Egyptian Fertility Survey on open and closed birth intervals were used to estimate parity progression ratios by area of residence and maternal age. Mean age at last birth was found to be positively related to final parity. Older women had larger numbers of children, and rural women ended childbearing later and began childbearing earlier than urban women. The minimum value for a first parity was 43.4 months, and the maximum value of women with a parity of 7 was 67.4 months. Parity progression ratios (PPR) were computed based on a simplification of Srinivasan's methods based on open and closed birth intervals. PPRs were higher in rural areas and tended to decrease with an increase in parity, with the exception of a parity of 8. 52% of women with a parity of 6 would be likely to advance to a higher parity: 63% in urban and 34% in rural areas. 61.1% of women 30-39 years old had completed their last births, and 2.6% of women 45-49 years old had completed childbearing. When age was controlled, the closed birth interval was a better predictor of parity than the open birth interval. Parity explained 15% of the variation in the open birth interval and 26% of the variance in the closed birth interval. Egyptian women have maintained high fertility.\u0000","PeriodicalId":85687,"journal":{"name":"The Egyptian population and family planning review","volume":"26 2 1","pages":"67-82"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1992-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68552989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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