首页 > 最新文献

Atmospheric Pollution Research最新文献

英文 中文
Machine learning-based estimation of vehicular emissions using on-board diagnostics data for intelligent fleet management 基于机器学习的车辆排放估计,使用车载诊断数据进行智能车队管理
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102784
Hamidreza Abediasl , Masoud Aliramezani , Charles Robert Koch , Mahdi Shahbakhti
Stringent regulations on real-driving emissions have been introduced to reduce the effect of tailpipe vehicular emissions on environmental pollution. The need to monitor emissions in real-driving conditions and across different driving cycles has underscored the importance of models for estimating emission rates. In this study, machine learning is employed to model commonly regulated tailpipe emissions (CO, UHC, NOx) based on real-time data obtained through on-board diagnostics (OBD) of vehicles. The models are trained using real-world tailpipe emission data and engine/vehicle operation data collected from three vehicles with various powertrains, including conventional gasoline engine, hybrid electric, and plug-in hybrid electric, under different ambient temperatures. Emphasis is placed on developing models capable of effectively estimating emissions during the cold phase of operation, which accounts for a significant portion of vehicular emissions, particularly in cold climates. The models are subsequently integrated into an intelligent fleet management system to enable real-time estimation of emissions using OBD data received from Internet of Things (IoT) modules installed on fleet vehicles.
为了减少汽车尾气排放对环境的污染,对实际驾驶排放实行了严格的规定。监测实际驾驶条件和不同驾驶循环下的排放的必要性,强调了估算排放率的模型的重要性。在本研究中,基于车载诊断(OBD)获得的实时数据,利用机器学习对通常受到监管的尾气排放(CO, UHC, NOx)进行建模。这些模型使用了在不同环境温度下,从三辆不同动力系统的汽车(包括传统汽油发动机、混合动力汽车和插电式混合动力汽车)收集的尾气排放数据和发动机/车辆运行数据进行训练。重点放在开发能够有效估计在寒冷运行阶段的排放的模型上,这占车辆排放的很大一部分,特别是在寒冷气候下。这些模型随后被集成到智能车队管理系统中,利用安装在车队上的物联网(IoT)模块接收到的OBD数据,实时估计排放量。
{"title":"Machine learning-based estimation of vehicular emissions using on-board diagnostics data for intelligent fleet management","authors":"Hamidreza Abediasl ,&nbsp;Masoud Aliramezani ,&nbsp;Charles Robert Koch ,&nbsp;Mahdi Shahbakhti","doi":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102784","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102784","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Stringent regulations on real-driving emissions have been introduced to reduce the effect of tailpipe vehicular emissions on environmental pollution. The need to monitor emissions in real-driving conditions and across different driving cycles has underscored the importance of models for estimating emission rates. In this study, machine learning is employed to model commonly regulated tailpipe emissions (CO, UHC, NOx) based on real-time data obtained through on-board diagnostics (OBD) of vehicles. The models are trained using real-world tailpipe emission data and engine/vehicle operation data collected from three vehicles with various powertrains, including conventional gasoline engine, hybrid electric, and plug-in hybrid electric, under different ambient temperatures. Emphasis is placed on developing models capable of effectively estimating emissions during the cold phase of operation, which accounts for a significant portion of vehicular emissions, particularly in cold climates. The models are subsequently integrated into an intelligent fleet management system to enable real-time estimation of emissions using OBD data received from Internet of Things (IoT) modules installed on fleet vehicles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8604,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Pollution Research","volume":"17 3","pages":"Article 102784"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unraveling the impacts of blue-green-gray landscape patterns on PM2.5 in high-density urban areas: A case study of Xi’an 高密度城市蓝绿灰景观格局对PM2.5的影响——以西安市为例
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102788
Baojun Yang , Lin Zhang , Danchen Yang , HuiYing Ma , Haifan Xie , Jiahui Hou , Ling Qiu , Tian Gao
High-density cities face severe PM2.5 particulate pollution issues, where landscape patterns significantly influence PM2.5 concentrations. Currently, there is a notable lack of comprehensive research on the integrated effects of urban blue-green-gray space landscape patterns on PM2.5. To address this research gap, this study examines the influence of blue-green-gray spatial configurations on PM2.5 concentrations in 410 high-density urban blocks in Xi’an during its peak pollution period. Using spatial autocorrelation, random forest regression, and correlation analysis, the research delineates the spatio-temporal distribution of PM2.5, constructs a customized landscape pattern index system, and proposes optimization strategies for urban planning. The results reveal that: (1)PM2.5 levels peak in January, with elevated nocturnal concentrations, and exhibit significant spatial clustering in the western, southwestern, and southern districts of Xi’an. (2)A set of nine primary landscape indices focused on green and gray spaces, including AI-Green, NP-Green, PD-Green, TE-Green, SHAPE (MN)-Green, CA-Gray, PD-Gray, SPLIT-Gray and SHAPE (MN)-Gray effectively characterize the impact of the urban landscape on air quality. (3) In particular, indicators such as AI-Green, TE-Green, and SHAPE (MN)-Green are significantly negatively correlated with PM2.5, while metrics such as NP-Green, PD-Green, and CA-Gray show positive associations, with CA-Gray exhibiting a particularly strong link. These findings suggest that urban planning should prioritize enhancing the aggregation and connectivity of green spaces, refining the configuration of built-up areas, and promoting a decentralized distribution of gray spaces. Such strategic spatial configurations can meaningfully lower PM2.5 concentrations, providing a scientifically grounded framework for improving air quality and public health in Xi’an and other high-density urban environments.
高密度城市面临严重的PM2.5颗粒污染问题,景观格局对PM2.5浓度影响显著。目前,城市蓝绿灰空间景观格局对PM2.5的综合影响研究明显缺乏。为了弥补这一研究空白,本研究考察了西安市410个高密度城区污染高峰期蓝绿灰空间格局对PM2.5浓度的影响。运用空间自相关、随机森林回归、相关分析等方法,勾勒出PM2.5的时空分布格局,构建定制化的景观格局指标体系,提出城市规划优化策略。结果表明:(1)PM2.5浓度在1月达到峰值,夜间浓度升高,且在西安市西部、西南部和南部呈现明显的空间集聚性;(2) AI-Green、NP-Green、PD-Green、TE-Green、SHAPE (MN)-Green、CA-Gray、PD-Gray、SPLIT-Gray和SHAPE (MN)-Gray等9个主要景观指数有效表征了城市景观对空气质量的影响。(3)特别是,AI-Green、TE-Green和SHAPE (MN)-Green等指标与PM2.5呈显著负相关,而NP-Green、PD-Green和CA-Gray等指标与PM2.5呈正相关,其中CA-Gray表现出特别强的联系。研究结果表明,城市规划应优先加强绿色空间的聚集性和连通性,优化建成区的配置,促进灰色空间的分散分布。这种战略性的空间配置可以显著降低PM2.5浓度,为改善西安和其他高密度城市环境的空气质量和公众健康提供科学依据的框架。
{"title":"Unraveling the impacts of blue-green-gray landscape patterns on PM2.5 in high-density urban areas: A case study of Xi’an","authors":"Baojun Yang ,&nbsp;Lin Zhang ,&nbsp;Danchen Yang ,&nbsp;HuiYing Ma ,&nbsp;Haifan Xie ,&nbsp;Jiahui Hou ,&nbsp;Ling Qiu ,&nbsp;Tian Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102788","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102788","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-density cities face severe PM<sub>2.5</sub> particulate pollution issues, where landscape patterns significantly influence PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations. Currently, there is a notable lack of comprehensive research on the integrated effects of urban blue-green-gray space landscape patterns on PM<sub>2.5</sub>. To address this research gap, this study examines the influence of blue-green-gray spatial configurations on PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations in 410 high-density urban blocks in Xi’an during its peak pollution period. Using spatial autocorrelation, random forest regression, and correlation analysis, the research delineates the spatio-temporal distribution of PM<sub>2.5</sub>, constructs a customized landscape pattern index system, and proposes optimization strategies for urban planning. The results reveal that: (1)PM<sub>2.5</sub> levels peak in January, with elevated nocturnal concentrations, and exhibit significant spatial clustering in the western, southwestern, and southern districts of Xi’an. (2)A set of nine primary landscape indices focused on green and gray spaces, including AI-Green, NP-Green, PD-Green, TE-Green, SHAPE (MN)-Green, CA-Gray, PD-Gray, SPLIT-Gray and SHAPE (MN)-Gray effectively characterize the impact of the urban landscape on air quality. (3) In particular, indicators such as AI-Green, TE-Green, and SHAPE (MN)-Green are significantly negatively correlated with PM<sub>2.5</sub>, while metrics such as NP-Green, PD-Green, and CA-Gray show positive associations, with CA-Gray exhibiting a particularly strong link. These findings suggest that urban planning should prioritize enhancing the aggregation and connectivity of green spaces, refining the configuration of built-up areas, and promoting a decentralized distribution of gray spaces. Such strategic spatial configurations can meaningfully lower PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations, providing a scientifically grounded framework for improving air quality and public health in Xi’an and other high-density urban environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8604,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Pollution Research","volume":"17 3","pages":"Article 102788"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Predicting odor nuisance levels using meteorological data and citizen complaints records: A machine learning approach 利用气象数据和市民投诉记录预测气味滋扰程度:一种机器学习方法
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102809
Meltem Apaydın Üstün , Can Burak Özkal
Understanding and predicting odor nuisance in industrial areas is vital for public health and quality of life. In Çorlu, an industrial city with unique topography, we analyzed citizen-reported odor complaints collected via the Geographic Information System-integrated mobile application Çorlu KODER (October 2020–August 2022). Using machine learning models incorporating meteorological factors like mixed-layer height, temperature, pressure, and humidity, along with seasonal and diurnal variations, we addressed significant class imbalance in the dataset. Ensemble methods such as Random Forest and Adaptive Boosting combined with synthetic minority oversampling and edited nearest neighbors achieved macro-averaged mean absolute error scores of 0.232 and 0.276. Our findings demonstrate the potential of machine learning for proactive odor prediction, aiding urban management in improving air quality and community well-being.
了解和预测工业区域的气味危害对公众健康和生活质量至关重要。在具有独特地形的工业城市Çorlu,我们分析了通过地理信息系统集成移动应用程序Çorlu KODER收集的市民报告的气味投诉(2020年10月至2022年8月)。使用机器学习模型结合气象因素,如混合层高度、温度、压力和湿度,以及季节和日变化,我们解决了数据集中显著的类不平衡。随机森林(Random Forest)和自适应增强(Adaptive Boosting)等集成方法结合合成少数派过采样(synthetic minority oversampling)和编辑近邻(edited nearest neighbors),宏观平均平均绝对误差得分分别为0.232和0.276。我们的研究结果证明了机器学习在主动气味预测方面的潜力,有助于城市管理改善空气质量和社区福祉。
{"title":"Predicting odor nuisance levels using meteorological data and citizen complaints records: A machine learning approach","authors":"Meltem Apaydın Üstün ,&nbsp;Can Burak Özkal","doi":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102809","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102809","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding and predicting odor nuisance in industrial areas is vital for public health and quality of life. In Çorlu, an industrial city with unique topography, we analyzed citizen-reported odor complaints collected via the Geographic Information System-integrated mobile application Çorlu KODER (October 2020–August 2022). Using machine learning models incorporating meteorological factors like mixed-layer height, temperature, pressure, and humidity, along with seasonal and diurnal variations, we addressed significant class imbalance in the dataset. Ensemble methods such as Random Forest and Adaptive Boosting combined with synthetic minority oversampling and edited nearest neighbors achieved macro-averaged mean absolute error scores of 0.232 and 0.276. Our findings demonstrate the potential of machine learning for proactive odor prediction, aiding urban management in improving air quality and community well-being.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8604,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Pollution Research","volume":"17 3","pages":"Article 102809"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multiple fuel use in low-income communities: socio-economic determinants and impacts on household air pollution and respiratory health in South Africa 低收入社区多种燃料使用:南非家庭空气污染和呼吸系统健康的社会经济决定因素和影响
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102815
Bianca Wernecke , Caradee Y. Wright , Kristy Langerman , Angela Mathee , Nada Abdelatif , Marcus A. Howard , Nkosana Jafta , Christiaan Pauw , Shumani Phaswana , Kareshma Asharam , Ishen Seocharan , Hendrik Smith , Rajen N. Naidoo
Domestic fuel use contributes significantly to household air pollution levels and to the disease burden in low-income households in South Africa. The link between residential fuel stacking and switching, and respiratory health, mediated by household air pollution, remains underexplored, posing challenges to transition to cleaner fuels. This study identified socio-economic determinants of fuel use patterns in two low-income communities of KwaZamokuhle and eMzinoni in South Africa. It also examined the impacts of these patterns on household air pollution levels and respiratory health outcomes. Over half of households relied on dirty fuels across all needs. Average household PM2.5 levels exceeded national daily standards (40 μg/m3). Education level and employment status were significant factors in determining fuel choice, with employed participants less likely to rely on dirty fuels. Town-specific characteristics also influenced household fuel use patterns. In terms of health, 9.5 % of participants had obstructive airways disease and 26.9 % tested positive for inhalant allergens. Heating fuels were strongest predictor of obstructive airways disease (>75 %) whereas cooking fuels were the main predictor of allergen sensitivity (∼75 %). The stepwise introduction of cleaner fuels predicted better respiratory health outcomes. The findings of this study suggest that even the partial adoption of cleaner fuels has health benefits and supports the formulation of context-specific mitigation efforts aiming to address negative health effects associated with household air pollution.
在南非,家庭燃料的使用大大增加了家庭空气污染水平和低收入家庭的疾病负担。住宅燃料堆积和转换与由家庭空气污染介导的呼吸健康之间的联系仍未得到充分探索,这对向更清洁燃料的过渡构成了挑战。本研究确定了南非KwaZamokuhle和eMzinoni两个低收入社区燃料使用模式的社会经济决定因素。它还审查了这些模式对家庭空气污染水平和呼吸系统健康结果的影响。超过一半的家庭依靠肮脏的燃料来满足所有需求。家庭平均PM2.5超过国家标准(40 μg/m3)。教育水平和就业状况是决定燃料选择的重要因素,有工作的参与者不太可能依赖肮脏的燃料。城镇特有的特点也影响了家庭燃料使用模式。在健康方面,9.5%的参与者患有阻塞性呼吸道疾病,26.9%的参与者吸入性过敏原检测呈阳性。取暖燃料是阻塞性气道疾病的最强预测因子(> 75%),而烹饪燃料是过敏原敏感性的主要预测因子(~ 75%)。逐步引入更清洁的燃料预示着更好的呼吸健康结果。这项研究的结果表明,即使部分采用更清洁的燃料也对健康有益,并支持制定针对具体情况的缓解工作,旨在解决与家庭空气污染有关的负面健康影响。
{"title":"Multiple fuel use in low-income communities: socio-economic determinants and impacts on household air pollution and respiratory health in South Africa","authors":"Bianca Wernecke ,&nbsp;Caradee Y. Wright ,&nbsp;Kristy Langerman ,&nbsp;Angela Mathee ,&nbsp;Nada Abdelatif ,&nbsp;Marcus A. Howard ,&nbsp;Nkosana Jafta ,&nbsp;Christiaan Pauw ,&nbsp;Shumani Phaswana ,&nbsp;Kareshma Asharam ,&nbsp;Ishen Seocharan ,&nbsp;Hendrik Smith ,&nbsp;Rajen N. Naidoo","doi":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102815","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102815","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Domestic fuel use contributes significantly to household air pollution levels and to the disease burden in low-income households in South Africa. The link between residential fuel stacking and switching, and respiratory health, mediated by household air pollution, remains underexplored, posing challenges to transition to cleaner fuels. This study identified socio-economic determinants of fuel use patterns in two low-income communities of KwaZamokuhle and eMzinoni in South Africa. It also examined the impacts of these patterns on household air pollution levels and respiratory health outcomes. Over half of households relied on dirty fuels across all needs. Average household PM<sub>2.5</sub> levels exceeded national daily standards (40 μg/m<sup>3</sup>). Education level and employment status were significant factors in determining fuel choice, with employed participants less likely to rely on dirty fuels. Town-specific characteristics also influenced household fuel use patterns. In terms of health, 9.5 % of participants had obstructive airways disease and 26.9 % tested positive for inhalant allergens. Heating fuels were strongest predictor of obstructive airways disease (&gt;75 %) whereas cooking fuels were the main predictor of allergen sensitivity (∼75 %). The stepwise introduction of cleaner fuels predicted better respiratory health outcomes. The findings of this study suggest that even the partial adoption of cleaner fuels has health benefits and supports the formulation of context-specific mitigation efforts aiming to address negative health effects associated with household air pollution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8604,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Pollution Research","volume":"17 3","pages":"Article 102815"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Air quality impacts of a major wildfire in the UK: Sensitivity to model spatial resolution and transport method 英国主要野火对空气质量的影响:对模型空间分辨率和传输方法的敏感性
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102795
Benjamin Drummond , Ailish Graham , Lucy Neal , Pedro Molina Jiménez , Richard J. Pope , Carly Reddington
Wildfires can be important drivers of poor air quality. Numerical atmosphere models are routinely used to estimate pollutant concentrations emitted from a wide range of sources, including from wildfires. Such models often take the Eulerian field or Lagrangian particle method for representing mass and transport in the atmosphere. Using the Saddleworth Moor and Winter Hill fires that occurred in North West England in 2018 as a case study, we compared these two methods consistently within the same model framework. We also explored the impact of model spatial resolution on predicted concentrations and health impacts. In the Eulerian simulations, as the horizontal resolution was made finer (from 12 km to 1 km) the horizontal spread of the downwind wildfire pollution decreased substantially, leading a smaller geographical area and population being impacted by the smoke. The estimated number of people exposed to poor air quality due to wildfire from the 1 km Eulerian simulation was 30% lower than from the 12 km Eulerian simulation. A health impact assessment found a similar relative decrease for the estimated excess mortality due to short-term PM2.5 exposure when going from 12 km to 1 km horizontal resolution. Estimated air quality impacts were also found to be sensitive to horizontal resolution for the Lagrangian simulations but to a lesser degree (10% decrease from 12 km to 1 km). We recommend that model spatial resolution should be considered as a source of uncertainty for wildfire air quality impact assessments, particularly when an Eulerian model is used.
野火可能是空气质量差的重要驱动因素。数值大气模式通常用于估计各种来源(包括野火)排放的污染物浓度。这种模型通常采用欧拉场或拉格朗日粒子法来表示大气中的质量和输运。以2018年英格兰西北部发生的萨德尔沃斯沼泽和冬季山火灾为例,我们在同一模型框架内一致地比较了这两种方法。我们还探讨了模型空间分辨率对预测浓度和健康影响的影响。在欧拉模拟中,随着水平分辨率的提高(从12 km提高到1 km),顺风野火污染的水平扩散范围大大减小,导致受烟雾影响的地理区域和人口减少。1公里欧拉模拟得出的因野火导致的空气质量差的估计人数比12公里欧拉模拟得出的估计人数低30%。一项健康影响评估发现,当水平分辨率从12公里增加到1公里时,由于PM2.5短期暴露造成的估计超额死亡率也有类似的相对下降。估计的空气质量影响也被发现对拉格朗日模拟的水平分辨率敏感,但程度较低(从12公里到1公里降低约10%)。我们建议将模型空间分辨率作为野火空气质量影响评估的不确定性来源,特别是在使用欧拉模型时。
{"title":"Air quality impacts of a major wildfire in the UK: Sensitivity to model spatial resolution and transport method","authors":"Benjamin Drummond ,&nbsp;Ailish Graham ,&nbsp;Lucy Neal ,&nbsp;Pedro Molina Jiménez ,&nbsp;Richard J. Pope ,&nbsp;Carly Reddington","doi":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102795","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102795","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wildfires can be important drivers of poor air quality. Numerical atmosphere models are routinely used to estimate pollutant concentrations emitted from a wide range of sources, including from wildfires. Such models often take the Eulerian field or Lagrangian particle method for representing mass and transport in the atmosphere. Using the Saddleworth Moor and Winter Hill fires that occurred in North West England in 2018 as a case study, we compared these two methods consistently within the same model framework. We also explored the impact of model spatial resolution on predicted concentrations and health impacts. In the Eulerian simulations, as the horizontal resolution was made finer (from 12 km to 1 km) the horizontal spread of the downwind wildfire pollution decreased substantially, leading a smaller geographical area and population being impacted by the smoke. The estimated number of people exposed to poor air quality due to wildfire from the 1 km Eulerian simulation was 30% lower than from the 12 km Eulerian simulation. A health impact assessment found a similar relative decrease for the estimated excess mortality due to short-term PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure when going from 12 km to 1 km horizontal resolution. Estimated air quality impacts were also found to be sensitive to horizontal resolution for the Lagrangian simulations but to a lesser degree (<span><math><mo>∼</mo></math></span>10% decrease from 12 km to 1 km). We recommend that model spatial resolution should be considered as a source of uncertainty for wildfire air quality impact assessments, particularly when an Eulerian model is used.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8604,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Pollution Research","volume":"17 3","pages":"Article 102795"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Development and application of a generalized empirical model of BVOC emission (GEMBE) using observations from four Chinese forests 基于中国四种森林观测数据的BVOC排放广义经验模型(GEMBE)的建立与应用
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102814
Jianhui Bai , Zhixiang Wu , Chuan Yang , Alex B. Guenther
Based on the measurements of emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), solar radiation and meteorological variables in three representative forests from temperate to subtropical zone in China, a primary empirical model of BVOC emissions (EMBE) has been developed. During 2018 and 2019, BVOC emission fluxes were measured in a tropical rubber tree plantation in China, and EMBE was improved to a generalized empirical model of BVOC emissions (GEMBE) and evaluated. This paper presents GEMBE as a fully empirical modeling framework, developed directly from ecosystem-scale flux observations, and compares this approach with MEGAN, a widely-used model that includes both empirical and process-based components. Isoprene emission estimated with GEMBE, using an emission factor based on the average for other sites, overestimated the observation by 34.8 % and monoterpenes by 41.0 %. A summary of the BVOC emission fluxes in the four typical forests in China is reported. With site-specific flux measurements the GEMBE model can be used to calculate BVOC emissions in China. Using GEMBE, the responses of BVOC emissions to their driving factors showed that isoprene and monoterpene emissions were more sensitive to the change in PAR than to changes in other factors. The responses of BVOC emissions to their driving factors were discussed for the four representative forests. The emission factors (EFs) calculated using GEMBE and MEGAN were summarized for the typical forests and grassland. The MEGAN estimated isoprene EF at this rubber plantation is lower, and the monoterpene EF is higher. Both GEMBE and MEGAN showed reasonable agreement in simulations of temporal trends over one year and two years, and well reproduced the evident monthly and seasonal BVOC emissions. As a fully empirical model, GEMBE provides a framework for estimating regional BVOC emissions, and investigating their impact on atmospheric chemistry, with an alternative approach to more complex process-based models that require biophysical parameterization.
基于对中国温带至亚热带3个代表性森林的生物源性挥发性有机化合物(BVOCs)排放、太阳辐射和气象变量的测量,建立了BVOC排放的初步经验模型。2018年和2019年,对中国热带橡胶林的BVOC排放通量进行了测量,并将EMBE改进为BVOC排放的广义经验模型(GEMBE)进行了评价。本文将GEMBE作为一个完全经验的建模框架,直接从生态系统尺度的通量观测中开发出来,并将这种方法与MEGAN进行了比较,MEGAN是一个广泛使用的模型,包括经验和基于过程的组件。使用GEMBE估算异戊二烯排放量,使用基于其他站点平均值的排放因子,将观测值高估了34.8%,单萜烯高估了41.0%。本文综述了中国四种典型森林的BVOC排放通量。GEMBE模型可用于计算中国的BVOC排放量。利用GEMBE分析,BVOC排放对其驱动因素的响应表明,异戊二烯和单萜烯排放对PAR的变化比其他因素的变化更敏感。探讨了四种典型森林BVOC排放对驱动因子的响应。总结了利用GEMBE和MEGAN计算的典型森林和草地的排放因子。梅根估算该橡胶林的异戊二烯EF较低,单萜烯EF较高。GEMBE和MEGAN在一年和两年的时间趋势模拟中表现出合理的一致性,并很好地再现了明显的月度和季节性BVOC排放。作为一个完全经验的模型,GEMBE提供了一个估算区域BVOC排放的框架,并研究其对大气化学的影响,与需要生物物理参数化的更复杂的基于过程的模型相比,它是一种替代方法。
{"title":"Development and application of a generalized empirical model of BVOC emission (GEMBE) using observations from four Chinese forests","authors":"Jianhui Bai ,&nbsp;Zhixiang Wu ,&nbsp;Chuan Yang ,&nbsp;Alex B. Guenther","doi":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102814","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102814","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on the measurements of emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), solar radiation and meteorological variables in three representative forests from temperate to subtropical zone in China, a primary empirical model of BVOC emissions (EMBE) has been developed. During 2018 and 2019, BVOC emission fluxes were measured in a tropical rubber tree plantation in China, and EMBE was improved to a generalized empirical model of BVOC emissions (GEMBE) and evaluated. This paper presents GEMBE as a fully empirical modeling framework, developed directly from ecosystem-scale flux observations, and compares this approach with MEGAN, a widely-used model that includes both empirical and process-based components. Isoprene emission estimated with GEMBE, using an emission factor based on the average for other sites, overestimated the observation by 34.8 % and monoterpenes by 41.0 %. A summary of the BVOC emission fluxes in the four typical forests in China is reported. With site-specific flux measurements the GEMBE model can be used to calculate BVOC emissions in China. Using GEMBE, the responses of BVOC emissions to their driving factors showed that isoprene and monoterpene emissions were more sensitive to the change in PAR than to changes in other factors. The responses of BVOC emissions to their driving factors were discussed for the four representative forests. The emission factors (EFs) calculated using GEMBE and MEGAN were summarized for the typical forests and grassland. The MEGAN estimated isoprene EF at this rubber plantation is lower, and the monoterpene EF is higher. Both GEMBE and MEGAN showed reasonable agreement in simulations of temporal trends over one year and two years, and well reproduced the evident monthly and seasonal BVOC emissions. As a fully empirical model, GEMBE provides a framework for estimating regional BVOC emissions, and investigating their impact on atmospheric chemistry, with an alternative approach to more complex process-based models that require biophysical parameterization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8604,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Pollution Research","volume":"17 3","pages":"Article 102814"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Gaseous pollutant emissions from solid fuel combustion: Comparative study of real-world and simulated chamber-based experiments 固体燃料燃烧产生的气体污染物排放:真实世界和模拟室内实验的比较研究
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102798
Dharini Sahu , Shamsh Pervez , Judith C. Chow , John G. Watson , Rajan K. Chakrabarty , Aishwaryashri Tamrakar , Indrapal Karbhal , Manas Kanti Deb , Kamlesh Shrivas , Yasmeen Fatima Pervez , Sachchidanand Shukla , D.P. Bisen
This study presents a comparative analysis of gaseous pollutant emissions from solid fuel combustion under real-world household conditions and simulated experimental chamber-based conditions. Focusing on six commonly used domestic fuels in India, fuelwood (FW), dung cake (DC), coal ball (CB), agricultural residue (AR), and two mixed fuel types (M1: CB + DC, M2: FW + DC in a 10:1 ratio), the research quantifies emissions of CO2, CO, NO, NO2, SO2, CH4, and total volatile organic compounds (TVOCs). Simulated combustion chamber experiments, designed to replicate household stove operation while allowing precise emission monitoring, were conducted alongside field based real-world observations. Emission factors (EFs) and combustion efficiency metrics were assessed to understand pollutant formation mechanisms. Results showed strong correlations between combustion efficiency and emission profiles: higher modified combustion efficiency (MCE) was associated with elevated CO2 and NO2 emissions, while lower MCE resulted in higher outputs of incomplete combustion products such as CO, CH4, and TVOCs. Slightly lower EFs and higher MCEs were observed in field based real-world conditions compared to those found for simulated experimental chamber based conditions. Agricultural residues emitted the highest CH4 levels, likely due to paddy-origin biomass, whereas mixed fuels showed increased TVOC emissions, linked to their high carbon and moisture content. This comparative study emphasizes the importance of integrating field-based validation with laboratory simulations to accurately assess household air pollution, and supports targeted interventions to promote cleaner combustion practices and reduce public health risks.
本研究对比分析了固体燃料燃烧在真实家庭条件和模拟实验室内条件下的气体污染物排放。本研究以印度六种常用的家用燃料——薪柴(FW)、粪饼(DC)、煤球(CB)、农用残渣(AR)和两种混合燃料(M1: CB + DC, M2: FW + DC,比例为10:1)为研究对象,量化了CO2、CO、NO、NO2、SO2、CH4和总挥发性有机化合物(TVOCs)的排放量。模拟燃烧室实验,旨在复制家庭炉灶操作,同时允许精确的排放监测,与现场真实世界的观察一起进行。对排放因子(EFs)和燃烧效率指标进行了评估,以了解污染物形成机制。结果表明,燃烧效率与排放特征之间存在很强的相关性:较高的改进燃烧效率(MCE)与CO2和NO2排放量的增加有关,而较低的MCE导致CO、CH4和TVOCs等不完全燃烧产物的排放量增加。与模拟实验条件相比,在基于现场的真实条件下观察到略低的EFs和较高的MCEs。农业残留物排放的CH4水平最高,可能是由于来自稻田的生物质,而混合燃料的TVOC排放量增加,与它们的高碳和高水分含量有关。这项比较研究强调了将现场验证与实验室模拟相结合以准确评估家庭空气污染的重要性,并支持有针对性的干预措施,以促进更清洁的燃烧做法并减少公共健康风险。
{"title":"Gaseous pollutant emissions from solid fuel combustion: Comparative study of real-world and simulated chamber-based experiments","authors":"Dharini Sahu ,&nbsp;Shamsh Pervez ,&nbsp;Judith C. Chow ,&nbsp;John G. Watson ,&nbsp;Rajan K. Chakrabarty ,&nbsp;Aishwaryashri Tamrakar ,&nbsp;Indrapal Karbhal ,&nbsp;Manas Kanti Deb ,&nbsp;Kamlesh Shrivas ,&nbsp;Yasmeen Fatima Pervez ,&nbsp;Sachchidanand Shukla ,&nbsp;D.P. Bisen","doi":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102798","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102798","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents a comparative analysis of gaseous pollutant emissions from solid fuel combustion under real-world household conditions and simulated experimental chamber-based conditions. Focusing on six commonly used domestic fuels in India, fuelwood (FW), dung cake (DC), coal ball (CB), agricultural residue (AR), and two mixed fuel types (M1: CB + DC, M2: FW + DC in a 10:1 ratio), the research quantifies emissions of CO<sub>2</sub>, CO, NO, NO<sub>2</sub>, SO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>, and total volatile organic compounds (TVOCs). Simulated combustion chamber experiments, designed to replicate household stove operation while allowing precise emission monitoring, were conducted alongside field based real-world observations. Emission factors (EFs) and combustion efficiency metrics were assessed to understand pollutant formation mechanisms. Results showed strong correlations between combustion efficiency and emission profiles: higher modified combustion efficiency (MCE) was associated with elevated CO<sub>2</sub> and NO<sub>2</sub> emissions, while lower MCE resulted in higher outputs of incomplete combustion products such as CO, CH<sub>4</sub>, and TVOCs. Slightly lower EFs and higher MCEs were observed in field based real-world conditions compared to those found for simulated experimental chamber based conditions. Agricultural residues emitted the highest CH<sub>4</sub> levels, likely due to paddy-origin biomass, whereas mixed fuels showed increased TVOC emissions, linked to their high carbon and moisture content. This comparative study emphasizes the importance of integrating field-based validation with laboratory simulations to accurately assess household air pollution, and supports targeted interventions to promote cleaner combustion practices and reduce public health risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8604,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Pollution Research","volume":"17 3","pages":"Article 102798"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dust microbial contamination in typical indoor environments: Concentration, pathogenic composition and exposure assessment 典型室内环境中的粉尘微生物污染:浓度、致病性组成和暴露评估
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102821
Tantan Tan , Gaoshan Zhang , Ke Lu , Yanpeng Li
Indoor air quality is critically influenced by microbial contaminants in settled dust, yet existing studies predominantly focus on airborne microorganisms, leaving dust-associated microbial exposure poorly characterized. This study investigated microbial contamination in dust from four university indoor environments (offices, laboratories, dormitories, and classrooms) to assess their concentration, pathogenic composition, and human exposure risks. Dust samples were analyzed via fluorescence staining, high-throughput sequencing, and the dust daily intake model (DDIM). Results revealed significant spatial heterogeneity in microbial concentrations: dormitories exhibited the highest bacterial levels (4068.88 × 104 ± 3386.55 × 104 CFU/g), while offices had the highest fungal concentrations (146.16 × 104 ± 152.93 × 104 CFU/g). Factors such as occupancy density, cleaning frequency, and indoor plant presence are strongly associated with microbial distribution. Three dominant genera (Fusobacterium, Pseudomonas, and Corynebacterium) and four dominant fungal genera (Aspergillus, Penicillium, Fusarium, and Streptomyces) were observed in all indoor dust samples, with a potential risk of association with respiratory diseases and skin infections. Exposure assessment indicated that dust ingestion dominated microbial intake, with dormitories posing the highest bacterial exposure (EDI up to 35,086 CFU/(kg·day)) and offices the highest fungal exposure (EDI up to 1263 CFU/(kg·day)). These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted interventions, such as improved ventilation, regular cleaning, and microbial monitoring, to mitigate health risks in high-exposure indoor environments. This study provides a scientific foundation for refining indoor air quality standards and safeguarding occupants in densely populated educational settings.
室内空气质量受到沉降尘埃中的微生物污染物的严重影响,但现有的研究主要集中在空气中的微生物上,使得与灰尘相关的微生物暴露缺乏特征。本研究调查了四所大学室内环境(办公室、实验室、宿舍和教室)粉尘中的微生物污染,以评估其浓度、致病成分和人类暴露风险。通过荧光染色、高通量测序和粉尘日摄入量模型(DDIM)对粉尘样品进行分析。结果表明,各办公室微生物浓度存在明显的空间差异,其中宿舍最高(4068.88 × 104±3386.55 × 104 CFU/g),办公室最高(146.16 × 104±152.93 × 104 CFU/g)。诸如占用密度、清洁频率和室内植物存在等因素与微生物分布密切相关。在所有室内粉尘样本中观察到3个优势属(梭杆菌、假单胞菌和杆状杆菌)和4个优势真菌属(曲霉、青霉菌、镰刀菌和链霉菌),具有与呼吸道疾病和皮肤感染相关的潜在风险。暴露评估表明,灰尘摄入主要是微生物摄入,宿舍的细菌暴露最高(EDI高达35,086 CFU/(kg·day)),办公室的真菌暴露最高(EDI高达1263 CFU/(kg·day))。这些发现突出表明,迫切需要有针对性的干预措施,如改善通风、定期清洁和微生物监测,以减轻高暴露室内环境中的健康风险。本研究为完善室内空气质量标准和保护人口密集的教育环境中的居住者提供了科学依据。
{"title":"Dust microbial contamination in typical indoor environments: Concentration, pathogenic composition and exposure assessment","authors":"Tantan Tan ,&nbsp;Gaoshan Zhang ,&nbsp;Ke Lu ,&nbsp;Yanpeng Li","doi":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102821","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102821","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Indoor air quality is critically influenced by microbial contaminants in settled dust, yet existing studies predominantly focus on airborne microorganisms, leaving dust-associated microbial exposure poorly characterized. This study investigated microbial contamination in dust from four university indoor environments (offices, laboratories, dormitories, and classrooms) to assess their concentration, pathogenic composition, and human exposure risks. Dust samples were analyzed via fluorescence staining, high-throughput sequencing, and the dust daily intake model (DDIM). Results revealed significant spatial heterogeneity in microbial concentrations: dormitories exhibited the highest bacterial levels (4068.88 × 10<sup>4</sup> ± 3386.55 × 10<sup>4</sup> CFU/g), while offices had the highest fungal concentrations (146.16 × 10<sup>4</sup> ± 152.93 × 10<sup>4</sup> CFU/g). Factors such as occupancy density, cleaning frequency, and indoor plant presence are strongly associated with microbial distribution. Three dominant genera (<em>Fusobacterium</em>, <em>Pseudomonas</em>, and <em>Corynebacterium</em>) and four dominant fungal genera (<em>Aspergillus</em>, <em>Penicillium</em>, <em>Fusarium</em>, and <em>Streptomyces</em>) were observed in all indoor dust samples, with a potential risk of association with respiratory diseases and skin infections. Exposure assessment indicated that dust ingestion dominated microbial intake, with dormitories posing the highest bacterial exposure (EDI up to 35,086 CFU/(kg·day)) and offices the highest fungal exposure (EDI up to 1263 CFU/(kg·day)). These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted interventions, such as improved ventilation, regular cleaning, and microbial monitoring, to mitigate health risks in high-exposure indoor environments. This study provides a scientific foundation for refining indoor air quality standards and safeguarding occupants in densely populated educational settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8604,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Pollution Research","volume":"17 3","pages":"Article 102821"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Long-term trends reflecting regulatory impacts on VOCs sources in the New York City metropolitan area 反映纽约市大都市区VOCs来源监管影响的长期趋势
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102789
Lucille Borlaza-Lacoste , Md. Aynul Bari , Cheng-Hsuan Lu , Philip K. Hopke
Over the past two decades, shifts in energy use and regulatory policies in New York State have shaped emissions and air quality in the New York City (NYC) metropolitan area, a densely populated and VOC-limited nonattainment region for ozone (O3). This study analyzed 24-h canister measurements from six sites, Queens, Bronx, Kings, Richmond, Elizabeth, and Chester, spanning the period of 2000–2021. Dispersion-Normalized Positive Matrix Factorization apportioned VOCs sources while accounting for atmospheric dilution, resolving twelve distinct sources dominated by aldehyde-rich factors, vehicle emissions, and industrial activities. Long-term trends from seasonal-trend decomposition and piecewise regression highlighted regulatory- and economy-driven shifts in source contributions. Significant declines in vehicle emissions, MTBE- and MEK-rich factors, and aldehydes aligned with Tier 2 and 3 fuel standards, MTBE phase-out, and MACT regulations. In contrast, natural gas, evaporative, biogenic, and background sources remained stable or increased, reflecting persistent and seasonally modulated emissions. Distinct site- and source-specific patterns in weekday/weekend and seasonal variability were also observed. These results show that while regulations have effectively reduced many anthropogenic VOCs sources, persistent emissions underscore the need for continued monitoring and adaptive control strategies in O3 nonattainment regions like NYC.
在过去的二十年里,纽约州能源使用和监管政策的转变影响了纽约市大都市区的排放和空气质量,这是一个人口密集、voc限制的臭氧(O3)不达标地区。这项研究分析了皇后区、布朗克斯、国王、里士满、伊丽莎白和切斯特六个地点的24小时罐子测量数据,时间跨度为2000年至2021年。分散归一化正矩阵分解在考虑大气稀释的情况下对VOCs源进行了分配,解决了由富醛因素、车辆排放和工业活动主导的12个不同源。季节性趋势分解和分段回归的长期趋势突出了来源贡献的调控和经济驱动的变化。车辆排放显著下降,MTBE和mek富集因素显著下降,醛类符合Tier 2和Tier 3燃料标准,MTBE逐步淘汰,以及MACT法规。相比之下,天然气、蒸发源、生物源和本底源保持稳定或增加,反映了持续和季节性调节的排放。在工作日/周末和季节变化中还观察到明显的站点和来源特定模式。这些结果表明,虽然法规有效地减少了许多人为VOCs源,但持续排放强调了在纽约市等O3未达标地区持续监测和自适应控制策略的必要性。
{"title":"Long-term trends reflecting regulatory impacts on VOCs sources in the New York City metropolitan area","authors":"Lucille Borlaza-Lacoste ,&nbsp;Md. Aynul Bari ,&nbsp;Cheng-Hsuan Lu ,&nbsp;Philip K. Hopke","doi":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102789","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102789","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the past two decades, shifts in energy use and regulatory policies in New York State have shaped emissions and air quality in the New York City (NYC) metropolitan area, a densely populated and VOC-limited nonattainment region for ozone (O<sub>3</sub>). This study analyzed 24-h canister measurements from six sites, Queens, Bronx, Kings, Richmond, Elizabeth, and Chester, spanning the period of 2000–2021. Dispersion-Normalized Positive Matrix Factorization apportioned VOCs sources while accounting for atmospheric dilution, resolving twelve distinct sources dominated by aldehyde-rich factors, vehicle emissions, and industrial activities. Long-term trends from seasonal-trend decomposition and piecewise regression highlighted regulatory- and economy-driven shifts in source contributions. Significant declines in vehicle emissions, MTBE- and MEK-rich factors, and aldehydes aligned with Tier 2 and 3 fuel standards, MTBE phase-out, and MACT regulations. In contrast, natural gas, evaporative, biogenic, and background sources remained stable or increased, reflecting persistent and seasonally modulated emissions. Distinct site- and source-specific patterns in weekday/weekend and seasonal variability were also observed. These results show that while regulations have effectively reduced many anthropogenic VOCs sources, persistent emissions underscore the need for continued monitoring and adaptive control strategies in O<sub>3</sub> nonattainment regions like NYC.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8604,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Pollution Research","volume":"17 3","pages":"Article 102789"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding the agriculture sectors of greenhouse gas emissions prediction in the global scenario: Insights from explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) 了解全球情景下农业部门温室气体排放预测:来自可解释人工智能(XAI)的见解
IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102792
Mantena Sireesha , Abdul Gaffar Sheik
This study explored the potential of four machine learning (ML) models such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Deep Feedforward Neural Networks (DFNN) or predicting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from an agricultural field. It measured carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) over a global scenario spanning 172 years. The rigorous analysis, which included statistical comparisons and cross-validation for predicting CO2, CH4, and N2O fluxes, demonstrated that GRU, CNN, and DFNN models consistently exhibited high prediction accuracy across most sectors. Notably, the GRU model outperformed the others, achieving an R2 of 0.9985 and an RMSE of 0.0108 for N2O emissions in the Waste sector. In contrast to previous studies, this research not only predicts future GHG emissions but also identifies the relationship between these predictions and their influential variables. To achieve this, an interpretable prediction framework was utilized, incorporating explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods including SHapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) plots, and Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) to reveal each GHG’s contribution to overall emissions. The SHAP analysis indicated that CH4 was the dominant contributor across all sectors, with a high average SHAP value of 10,632.68 in agriculture and 3386.09 in the Waste sector, followed by N2O and CO2. Further analyses using ICE and PDP clarified the sector-specific nonlinear interactions, showing that CH4 had the greatest influence on emissions, particularly in synergy with N2O. These findings illustrate the significant potential of ML models for predicting GHG emissions in the agricultural sector.
本研究探索了四种机器学习(ML)模型的潜力,如卷积神经网络(CNN)、循环神经网络(RNN)、门控循环单元(GRU)和深度前馈神经网络(DFNN)或预测农田温室气体(GHG)排放。它测量了全球172年的二氧化碳(CO2)、甲烷(CH4)和一氧化二氮(N2O)。通过对预测CO2、CH4和N2O通量的统计比较和交叉验证等严格分析,表明GRU、CNN和DFNN模型在大多数行业都具有较高的预测精度。值得注意的是,GRU模型的表现优于其他模型,废物部门N2O排放的R2为0.9985,RMSE为0.0108。与以往的研究相比,本研究不仅预测了未来的温室气体排放,而且确定了这些预测与其影响变量之间的关系。为了实现这一目标,利用了一个可解释的预测框架,结合可解释的人工智能(XAI)方法,包括SHapley加性解释(SHAP)、局部可解释模型不可知论解释(LIME)、个体条件期望(ICE)图和部分依赖图(pdp),以揭示每种温室气体对总排放的贡献。SHAP分析表明,CH4是各部门的主要贡献者,农业部门和废物部门的平均SHAP值较高,分别为10,632.68和3386.09,其次是N2O和CO2。使用ICE和PDP的进一步分析澄清了特定部门的非线性相互作用,表明CH4对排放的影响最大,特别是与N2O的协同作用。这些发现说明了ML模型在预测农业部门温室气体排放方面的巨大潜力。
{"title":"Understanding the agriculture sectors of greenhouse gas emissions prediction in the global scenario: Insights from explainable artificial intelligence (XAI)","authors":"Mantena Sireesha ,&nbsp;Abdul Gaffar Sheik","doi":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102792","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apr.2025.102792","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explored the potential of four machine learning (ML) models such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Deep Feedforward Neural Networks (DFNN) or predicting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from an agricultural field. It measured carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>), methane (CH<sub>4</sub>), and nitrous oxide (N<sub>2</sub>O) over a global scenario spanning 172 years. The rigorous analysis, which included statistical comparisons and cross-validation for predicting CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>, and N<sub>2</sub>O fluxes, demonstrated that GRU, CNN, and DFNN models consistently exhibited high prediction accuracy across most sectors. Notably, the GRU model outperformed the others, achieving an R<sup>2</sup> of 0.9985 and an RMSE of 0.0108 for N<sub>2</sub>O emissions in the Waste sector. In contrast to previous studies, this research not only predicts future GHG emissions but also identifies the relationship between these predictions and their influential variables. To achieve this, an interpretable prediction framework was utilized, incorporating explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods including SHapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) plots, and Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) to reveal each GHG’s contribution to overall emissions. The SHAP analysis indicated that CH<sub>4</sub> was the dominant contributor across all sectors, with a high average SHAP value of 10,632.68 in agriculture and 3386.09 in the Waste sector, followed by N<sub>2</sub>O and CO<sub>2</sub>. Further analyses using ICE and PDP clarified the sector-specific nonlinear interactions, showing that CH4 had the greatest influence on emissions, particularly in synergy with N<sub>2</sub>O. These findings illustrate the significant potential of ML models for predicting GHG emissions in the agricultural sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8604,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Pollution Research","volume":"17 3","pages":"Article 102792"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Atmospheric Pollution Research
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1