Atmospheric Pollution Research最新文献_第5页

CausalMedZone: A pathway analysis model of ozone formation based on causal inference CausalMedZone：基于因果推理的臭氧形成通路分析模型

IF 3.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Pollution Research

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102696

Chenyang Jia , Chang Liu , Chenguang Yan , Erhong Duan

Ozone is a significant atmospheric pollutant with notable hazards to human health, and its formation mechanism is complex, but current research on ozone formation mechanisms often neglects the exploration of causal relationships. This study develops the CausalMedZone (Causality and Mediation pathway analysis for ozone) model, a causal inference-based framework designed to investigate ozone formation mechanisms. This model aims to identify key explanatory variables in the ozone formation process by explicitly modeling causal relationships among pollutants, thereby uncovering the true drivers of ozone pollution. Additionally, CausalMedZone integrates mediation and moderation effects to construct ozone formation pathways, providing a comprehensive understanding of how key pollutants and meteorological conditions interact to influence ozone formation. CausalMedZone effectively elucidates the causes of ozone pollution in Shijiazhuang, reveals a dual pathway where PM_2.5 directly promotes ozone formation and indirectly inhibits it through NO₂, with CO and relative humidity significantly moderating the PM_2.5

\to

NO₂ and NO₂

\to

O₃ pathways, respectively (R² = 0.70). Furthermore, the model demonstrates broad applicability in heterogeneity analysis across the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, revealing significant differences in ozone formation mechanisms among cities: Beijing exhibits a NO₂-dominated ozone suppression pathway (R² = 0.70), while Shijiazhuang and Tianjin show a PM_2.5

\to

NO₂ coupling pathway (R² = 0.80 & 0.75). These findings provide a scientific foundation for developing region-specific and precise ozone pollution control strategies.

臭氧是一种对人类健康危害显著的重要大气污染物，其形成机制复杂，但目前对臭氧形成机制的研究往往忽略了对因果关系的探索。本研究开发了CausalMedZone（臭氧的因果关系和中介途径分析）模型，这是一个基于因果推理的框架，旨在研究臭氧的形成机制。该模型旨在通过明确模拟污染物之间的因果关系，确定臭氧形成过程中的关键解释变量，从而揭示臭氧污染的真正驱动因素。此外，CausalMedZone整合调解和调节效应构建臭氧形成路径，全面了解关键污染物和气象条件如何相互作用影响臭氧形成。CausalMedZone有效地阐明了石家庄市臭氧污染的成因，揭示了PM2.5直接促进臭氧形成和通过NO2间接抑制臭氧形成的双重途径，CO和相对湿度分别显著调节PM2.5→NO2和NO2→O3的途径（R2 = 0.70）。此外，该模型在京津冀地区的异质性分析中具有广泛的适用性，揭示了城市间臭氧形成机制的显著差异：北京表现为NO2主导的臭氧抑制途径（R2 = 0.70），而石家庄和天津表现为PM2.5→NO2耦合途径（R2 = 0.80 & 0.75）。这些研究结果为制定具有区域特色的精确臭氧污染控制策略提供了科学依据。

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引用次数: 0

Modeling PM2.5 dispersion from diesel generators in Beirut: Identifying urban hotspots under data scarcity 贝鲁特柴油发电机PM2.5扩散模型：数据稀缺下的城市热点识别

IF 3.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Pollution Research

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102686

Elissar Al Aawar , Jennifer Karam , Abdelkader Baayoun , Mohamad Ghadban , Sara Najem , Najat A. Saliba , Issam Lakkis

Diesel generators are emerging as community-initiated solutions to compensate for electricity shortages in cities facing economic crises and infrastructure collapse. In dense urban environments, emissions from these generators pose a significant air quality concern. In the absence of periodic observations from properly distributed sensors, as is the case in Beirut, physically based computational modeling serves as an effective tool for predicting pollutant distribution and assessing mitigation strategies. In this study, we employ the GRAMM-GRAL Lagrangian transport modeling system to simulate PM_2.5 dispersion originating from diesel generators in Beirut under different meteorological and urban conditions. The simulations account for topography, atmospheric stability, wind speed and direction, building geometry, generator distribution, and exhaust stack heights, referring to the elevation at which generator emissions are released. We evaluate various scenarios by examining overall dispersion patterns, and mean street-level PM_2.5 concentrations. Using the World Health Organization’s AirQ+ tool, we also estimate the potential health impacts based on model-predicted PM_2.5 concentrations across the city. The results highlight the sensitivity of pollutant dispersion to wind patterns and generator exhaust elevation. Increasing the generator exhaust stack height notably reduces near-ground PM_2.5 levels, especially under high wind speeds. This study provides a scalable framework for air quality assessment and risk estimation in data-scarce urban environments and informs future urban planning and environmental policy efforts.

柴油发电机正在成为社区发起的解决方案，以弥补面临经济危机和基础设施崩溃的城市的电力短缺。在人口密集的城市环境中，这些发电机的排放对空气质量造成了重大影响。在没有适当分布的传感器的定期观测的情况下，如贝鲁特的情况，基于物理的计算建模可作为预测污染物分布和评估缓解战略的有效工具。在本研究中，我们采用gram - gral拉格朗日输运模型系统模拟了贝鲁特不同气象和城市条件下柴油发电机产生的PM2.5扩散。模拟考虑了地形、大气稳定性、风速和风向、建筑物几何形状、发电机分布和排气堆高度（指发电机排放的高度）。我们通过检查总体分散模式和平均街道PM2.5浓度来评估各种情景。使用世界卫生组织的AirQ+工具，我们还根据模型预测的整个城市的PM2.5浓度估计了潜在的健康影响。结果强调了污染物扩散对风型和发电机排气高度的敏感性。增加发电机排气烟囱高度可显著降低近地PM2.5水平，特别是在高风速下。本研究为数据稀缺的城市环境中的空气质量评估和风险评估提供了一个可扩展的框架，并为未来的城市规划和环境政策工作提供了信息。

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引用次数: 0

Impacts of photochemical losses of VOCs on ozone formation and source apportionment in a typical industrial city of Central Plains, China during summer 典型中原工业城市夏季VOCs光化学损失对臭氧形成及源分配的影响

IF 3.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Pollution Research

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102778

Leitao Sun , Liya Fan , Haomin Huang , Daiqi Ye

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) play a key role in ozone (O₃) formation, but conventional studies typically neglect photochemical losses, which reduces the effective VOCs available for O₃ formation and may bias O₃ formation potential (OFP) estimates and source apportionment. Using hourly VOCs data from Hebi in June 2024, this study employed the photochemical age-based parameterization method to estimate initial VOCs concentrations and quantify the photochemical losses. The average initial concentration of total VOCs (TVOCs) was 44.15 ppbv, 2.21 times that of the observed concentration (19.96 ppbv), with a photochemical loss of 24.19 ppbv (54.79 % of the initial concentration). During the daytime (6:00-19:00), the average photochemical loss of TVOCs accounted for 66.88 % of their average initial concentration. The O₃ pollution period showed a 3.9 times higher photochemical loss of TVOCs compared with the non-O₃ pollution period. During the daytime (06:00-19:00) of the whole study period, alkenes (37.54 ppbv, 57.36 %) and oxygenated VOCs (OVOCs) (18.56 ppbv, 30.06 %) were the major contributors to the total photochemical loss of TVOCs (40.81 ppbv). OFP comparisons revealed that OFP based on the initial (OFP_IC) and loss (OFP_LC) concentrations yielded higher total values and showed better correlations with observed O₃ than OFP based on the observed (OFP_OC) concentrations. Source apportionment showed that secondary formation (30.51 %), diesel vehicle emissions (15.34 %), and biogenic emissions (14.68 %) were the primary sources of consumed VOCs, defined as the fraction of VOCs lost via photochemical reactions during atmospheric transport. During the O₃ pollution period, secondary formation contributed 36.16 % (7.72 ppbv), which was 8.87 times that of the non-O₃ pollution period. Diesel vehicle emissions (19.25 %) and solvent usage (12.69 %) also increased, while liquefied petroleum gas/natural gas (LPG/NG) usage remained stable. This study provides critical insights into the role of photochemical losses in VOCs concentrations, OFP, and source apportionment, which will help improve the regional O₃ pollution control strategies.

挥发性有机化合物（VOCs）在臭氧（O3）的形成中起着关键作用，但传统的研究通常忽略了光化学损失，这减少了O3形成的有效VOCs，并可能影响O3形成势（OFP）的估计和来源分配。利用鹤壁地区2024年6月每小时VOCs数据，采用基于光化学年龄的参数化方法估算初始VOCs浓度，并量化光化学损失。总挥发性有机化合物（TVOCs）的平均初始浓度为44.15 ppbv，是观测浓度（19.96 ppbv）的2.21倍，光化学损失为24.19 ppbv（初始浓度的54.79%）。在白天（6:00-19:00），TVOCs的平均光化学损失占其平均初始浓度的66.88%。O3污染期TVOCs光化学损失比非O3污染期高3.9倍。在整个研究时段的白天（06:00-19:00），烯烃（37.54 ppbv, 57.36%）和含氧VOCs （18.56 ppbv, 30.06%）是TVOCs总光化学损失的主要来源（40.81 ppbv）。OFP比较显示，基于初始（OFPIC）和损失（OFPLC）浓度的OFP产生更高的总价值，并且与观测到的O3的相关性优于基于观测到的（OFPOC）浓度的OFP。来源分析表明，次生形成（30.51%）、柴油车排放（15.34%）和生物源排放（14.68%）是VOCs消耗的主要来源，VOCs消耗指的是大气运输过程中通过光化学反应损失的VOCs的比例。在O3污染期，次生地层贡献36.16% (7.72 ppbv)，是非O3污染期的8.87倍。柴油车排放量（19.25%）和溶剂使用量（12.69%）也有所增加，而液化石油气/天然气（LPG/NG）的使用量则保持稳定。该研究对光化学损失在VOCs浓度、OFP和来源分配中的作用提供了重要的见解，这将有助于改进区域O3污染控制策略。

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引用次数: 0

Commonly existence of additive effects of nitrogen deposition and precipitation changes on soil properties 氮沉降和降水变化对土壤性质普遍存在加性效应

IF 3.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Pollution Research

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102663

Xiaomei Chen , Yujin Liu , Qiaojuan Zhou , Tianyi Wen , Hui Wei

Global change and the ecological consequences have been intensively studied for decades, with linear versus nonlinear interactive effects of multiple-factor global change being a longstanding hotspot due to be short of multifactor manipulation experiments. By employing the meta-analysis technique, we aimed to unveil the interactive effect of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition and precipitation changes on soil properties in the terrestrial ecosystems. Resultantly, we observed that regardless of reduced or increased precipitation manipulation, the interactive effects of N deposition and precipitation changes were commonly additive for most of the investigated soil parameters in this study (such as soil carbon content, microbial biomass and diversity). The observation indicated that it could be acceptable to estimate the two-factor overall effects of N deposition and precipitation changes by totalizing the two single-factor effects. However, such a simplification was not suitable in N cycling related studies, due to significant synergistic or antagonistic effects of N deposition and precipitation changes on soil ammonia and nitrate contents. Totally, our results imply commonly existence of additive effects of N deposition and precipitation changes on the soil ecosystem except the available soil N contents.

全球变化及其生态后果的研究已经深入了几十年，由于缺乏多因素操纵实验，多因素全球变化的线性与非线性相互作用是一个长期的热点。利用meta分析技术，揭示大气氮沉降和降水变化对陆地生态系统土壤性质的交互作用。因此，我们观察到，无论降水控制是减少还是增加，氮沉降和降水变化的交互效应在本研究中研究的大多数土壤参数（如土壤碳含量、微生物生物量和多样性）中通常是相加的。观测结果表明，将两个单因素效应相加，可以估计出氮沉降和降水变化的双因素总体效应。然而，这种简化并不适用于氮循环相关的研究，因为氮沉降和降水变化对土壤氨氮和硝态氮含量具有显著的协同或拮抗作用。综上所述，除速效氮含量外，氮沉降和降水变化对土壤生态系统普遍存在加性效应。

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引用次数: 0

Methodological insights for accurate quantification of trace elements in soluble and insoluble fractions of bulk atmospheric deposition 对大量大气沉积中可溶和不溶部分微量元素精确定量的方法学见解

IF 3.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Pollution Research

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102682

Filippo Brugnone , Walter D'Alessandro , Lorenzo Brusca , Filippo Saiano , Marcello Liotta , Francesco Parello , Salvatore Giammanco , Anna Maria Abita , Sergio Calabrese

This study explores the distribution of 16 trace elements between soluble and insoluble fractions of atmospheric deposition in Sicily, Italy, based on EU protocols for monitoring pollutants. Using a standardised deposimeter, we collected 149 atmospheric deposition samples over two years. Additionally, we analysed the rinse solution of the deposimeter separately. Higher deposition values for elements like Sr, B, Ba, Zn, As, and Cu were found in the soluble fraction, whereas Fe, Ti, Al, Cr, Co, Li, Mn, V, Ni, and Pb were prevalent in the insoluble fraction. The rinse fraction typically accounted for lower deposition values (from 1 % to 19 %), except for Pb and B, which accounted for 42 % and 31 % of the total deposition. We compared trace element distribution during a "dry period" and a "wet period." During the dry period, the insoluble fraction represented up to 97 % for elements like Ti and Fe, while the rinse fraction was notable for B (∼51 %) and Pb (∼33 %). In the wet period, insoluble contributions were higher for Li, Al, Ti, Cr, Fe, Co, and Pb, and soluble contributions increased for B, V, Mn, Zn, As, Sr, Ba, and Cu. While soluble elements were affected by temporal precipitation distribution, less soluble elements like Ti, Fe, and Al showed no significant differences between periods. Overall, the study highlights varying degrees of solubility among trace elements. Although the rinse fraction was generally negligible for most elements, overlooking it could lead to underestimating total atmospheric deposition for some elements, especially after extended dry periods.

本研究基于欧盟污染物监测协议，探讨了意大利西西里岛大气沉积中可溶性和不可溶性组分之间16种微量元素的分布。使用标准化沉积物计，我们在两年内收集了149个大气沉积物样本。另外，对沉积仪的冲洗液进行了单独分析。Sr、B、Ba、Zn、As和Cu等元素在可溶部分沉积值较高，而Fe、Ti、Al、Cr、Co、Li、Mn、V、Ni和Pb等元素在不可溶部分沉积值较高。除Pb和B分别占总沉积的42%和31%外，漂洗馏分通常占较低的沉积值（从1%到19%）。我们比较了“干期”和“湿期”的微量元素分布。在干燥期，像Ti和Fe这样的元素的不溶性分数高达97%，而B（~ 51%）和Pb（~ 33%）的漂洗分数显著。在湿润期，Li、Al、Ti、Cr、Fe、Co和Pb的不溶性贡献较高，而B、V、Mn、Zn、As、Sr、Ba和Cu的可溶性贡献增加。可溶性元素受降水时间分布的影响，较难溶性元素Ti、Fe和Al在不同时期间差异不显著。总的来说，该研究强调了微量元素之间不同程度的溶解度。虽然对于大多数元素来说，漂洗部分通常可以忽略不计，但忽略它可能会导致低估某些元素的大气沉积总量，特别是在长时间干燥后。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “A two-stage algorithm to estimate ground-level PM2.5 concentration levels in Madrid (Spain) from AOD satellite data and surface proxies” [Atmos. Pollut. Res. 16/12 (2025) 102678] “利用AOD卫星数据和地面代用物估算马德里（西班牙）地面PM2.5浓度水平的两阶段算法”的勘误表[Atmos。Pollut。第16/12(2025)102678号公告]

IF 3.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Pollution Research

Pub Date : 2025-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102777

José María Cordero , Jing Li , David de la Paz , Petros Koutrakis , Rafael Borge

引用次数: 0

Long-term PM2.5 source apportionment at 12 sites in the western United States from 2000 to 2020 2000 - 2020年美国西部12个站点PM2.5长期源分配

IF 3.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Pollution Research

Pub Date : 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102779

Kamaljeet Kaur , Jenna R. Krall , Cesunica Ivey , Heather Holmes , Kerry E. Kelly

Long-term source attribution studies help evaluate the effectiveness of PM_2.5 reduction strategies, but inconsistencies in chemical speciation methods complicate source attribution. This study addresses these challenges by integrating Positive Matrix Factorization and Chemical Mass Balance to assess source contributions to PM_2.5 over a 20-year period (2000–2020) at 12 monitoring sites in five western U.S. states: Utah (Bountiful, Hawthorne, Lindon), California (Fresno, Bakersfield, Modesto, Visalia, Sacramento), Nevada (Reno, Las Vegas), Idaho (Boise), and Colorado (Commerce City). At each site, this study identified five to eight source factors including secondary ammonium nitrate (AN), secondary ammonium sulfate (AS), dust, chloride, organic carbon (OC) rich, elemental carbon (EC) rich, EC Cu rich, Cl Zn rich, and aged sea salt. Over two decades, PM_2.5 concentrations significantly declined (−0.38 to −0.037 μg/m³ per year) at all sites except Boise and Commerce City. Declines in AN, AS, EC rich, and EC Cu rich concentrations suggest the role of stringent national regulations on mobile, point, and area sources, resulting in reductions in NO_x, SO₂, and direct PM_2.5 emissions. Despite increasing vehicle miles traveled (VMT), EC rich (vehicle) concentrations decreased, indicating the importance of lower per-vehicle emissions. Winter OC rich concentrations, linked to biomass burning, saw the largest seasonal decline due to national and local efforts to curb residential wood combustion emissions. In contrast, dust concentrations generally increased, likely driven by rising regional aridity and VMT. These findings underscore the long-term effectiveness of air-quality policies in reducing PM_2.5 concentrations.

长期源归因研究有助于评估PM2.5减排策略的有效性，但化学形态方法的不一致性使源归因复杂化。本研究通过整合正矩阵分解和化学质量平衡，在美国西部五个州的12个监测点评估20年间（2000-2020年）PM2.5的来源贡献，解决了这些挑战：犹他州（Bountiful, Hawthorne, Lindon），加利福尼亚州（弗雷斯诺，贝克斯菲尔德，莫德斯托，维萨利亚，萨克拉门托），内华达州（里诺，拉斯维加斯），爱达荷州（博伊西）和科罗拉多州（Commerce City）。每个样点的源因子包括硝酸铵（AN）、硫酸铵（AS）、粉尘、氯化物、富有机碳（OC）、富元素碳（EC）、富元素铜（EC）、富氯锌（Cl Zn）和老化海盐等5 ~ 8个。20多年来，除博伊西和商业城外，其他站点的PM2.5浓度均显著下降（- 0.38 ~ - 0.037 μg/m3 /年）。AN、AS、EC富和EC富Cu浓度的下降表明，国家对移动、点和区域源的严格监管起到了作用，从而减少了NOx、SO2和PM2.5的直接排放。尽管车辆行驶里程（VMT）增加了，但含EC（车辆）的浓度却下降了，这表明降低每辆车排放量的重要性。由于国家和地方努力遏制住宅木材燃烧排放，与生物质燃烧有关的冬季OC富浓度出现了最大的季节性下降。相比之下，尘埃浓度普遍增加，可能是由区域干旱和车辆行驶里程上升造成的。这些发现强调了空气质量政策在降低PM2.5浓度方面的长期有效性。

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引用次数: 0

Characterization and source analysis of carbonyl compounds in a rural area of north China Plain: Results from 1-year continuous observations 华北平原农村地区羰基化合物的特征和来源分析：1年连续观测结果

IF 3.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Pollution Research

Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102772

Wenxin Cao , Xuran Li , Shuyang Xie , Jinyong Yang , Pengfei Liu , Chengtang Liu , Yuanyuan Zhang , Chenglong Zhang , Yujing Mu , Junfeng Liu

Carbonyl compounds are significant in atmospheric chemistry and human health, yet their sources, especially in rural areas, remain incompletely characterized. Long-term measurements (June 2020–July 2021) at a rural site in the North China Plain (NCP) identified formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and acetone as the dominant carbonyls, collectively accounting for 71 % of the total. Concentrations exhibited distinct seasonal patterns, with the highest levels observed for all three compounds during autumn. Analysis of C1/C2 ratios and correlation analysis indicated anthropogenic emissions as the primary source overall. Notably, during autumn, strong mutual correlations among formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and acetone were observed, contrasting with weaker correlations to CO and O₃. Supplementary experiments confirmed that mechanical corn stover crushing releases substantial amounts of carbonyls. These convergent findings demonstrate that large-scale seasonal agricultural activities, particularly corn stover crushing and agricultural machinery during harvest periods, constitute a major and previously underappreciated source of carbonyl emissions in the NCP region, necessitating greater attention in emission inventories and mitigation strategies. Furthermore, integrated lifetime cancer risk (ILTCR) and hazard quotient (HQ) assessments indicated that formaldehyde concentrations pose a potential lifetime carcinogenic risk to the local population.

羰基化合物在大气化学和人类健康方面具有重要意义，但它们的来源，特别是在农村地区，仍然没有完全确定。在华北平原（NCP）的一个农村地区进行的长期测量（2020年6月至2021年7月）发现，甲醛、乙醛和丙酮是主要的羰基，共占总量的71%。浓度表现出明显的季节特征，在秋季这三种化合物的浓度最高。C1/C2比值分析和相关分析表明，人为排放总体上是主要排放源。值得注意的是，在秋季，甲醛、乙醛和丙酮之间存在很强的相互相关性，而CO和O3之间的相关性较弱。补充实验证实，机械粉碎玉米秸秆释放大量的羰基。这些趋同的发现表明，大规模的季节性农业活动，特别是收获期间的玉米秸秆粉碎和农业机械，构成了NCP区域羰基排放的一个主要来源，但以前未得到充分认识，因此必须更加重视排放清单和缓解战略。此外，综合终身癌症风险（ILTCR）和危害商（HQ）评估表明，甲醛浓度对当地人口构成潜在的终身致癌风险。

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引用次数: 0

Examination of compliance refinery fenceline monitoring for benzene across the United States during 2019 2019年美国各地炼油厂围栏苯监测合规性检查

IF 3.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Pollution Research

Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102776

Shaibal Mukerjee , Carry Croghan , Luther Smith

Analyses of U.S. compliance benzene air databases from refinery fenceline sites were conducted using 2019 measurements. Annual averages of maximum minus minimum benzene values (Δc) and mean benzene were summarized and compared by Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs) for the country. Of the 104 refineries analyzed, thirteen refineries had annual average Δc values above an “action level” of 9 μg/m³ suggesting most refineries were in compliance. For Δc and benzene values, nonparametric paired comparisons of PADDs at the 5 % significance level indicated that the major oil-producing Gulf Coast was higher than other PADD regions, except for benzene at the East Coast. The West Coast was lower than each of the other PADDs at the 5 % significance level, except Δc in the East Coast and benzene in the Rocky Mountain region. No seasonal variation was found for the PADDs, except the West Coast for benzene. Overall results here present an opportunity to assess benzene fenceline impacts at specific U.S. refineries, such as those exceeding the annual average Δc action level.

使用2019年的测量数据对炼油厂围栏站点的美国合规苯空气数据库进行了分析。由防区石油管理局（padd）总结和比较了全国最大-最小苯值的年平均值（Δc）和平均苯。在分析的104家炼油厂中，13家炼油厂的年平均Δc值高于9 μg/m3的“行动水平”，这表明大多数炼油厂都符合要求。对于Δc和苯值，PADD在5%显著性水平下的非参数配对比较表明，除东海岸的苯外，主要产油的墨西哥湾沿岸高于其他PADD地区。除了东海岸的Δc和落基山脉地区的苯外，西海岸的phas在5%的显著性水平上低于其他各phas。除西海岸的苯外，padd没有季节变化。这里的总体结果为评估苯围栏对美国特定炼油厂的影响提供了机会，例如那些超过Δc年平均行动水平的炼油厂。

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引用次数: 0

Linking dust source susceptibility mapping and land use change in Middle East 中东地区沙源敏感性制图与土地利用变化的关联

IF 3.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Pollution Research

Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102774

Mahdi Boroughani , Mahnaz Naemi , Sima Pourhashemi , Mohammad Ali Zangane Asadi , Ali Al-Hemoud , Ghadeer Al-Qadeeri

The Middle East region, with its semi-arid and arid climate and position adjacent to the vast deserts, is highly prone to land degradation and dust storms. Land-use changes and urbanization over the last decades have added extra pressure on the environment at an ever-increasing pace. This study aimed to simulate future land-use changes for 2040, 2070, and 2100 using the CA-Markov model and to evaluate their impact on dust storm occurrence. Dust Storm Sensitivity Mapping (DSM) was conducted using three machine-learning models) BA, XGB, and CA) based on 1634 dust occurrence points and nine environmental factors. Validation results indicated that the BA model had better performance than the other models, with SPF = 83.55 % and AUC = 0.821. Statistical tests (Friedman and Wilcoxon) confirmed the existence of significant differences between the performances of models at the 95 % CI. Land use simulations project a substantial increase in barren lands and areas with no vegetation between 2040–2070 and 2070–2100, mainly caused by unsustainable land management, overgrazing, deforestation, and inefficient agricultural practices, which results in soil degradation and reduced capacity for vegetation cover. Further, urban expansion and population growth were determined to accelerate the degradation of agricultural plots. Sensitivity maps confirmed that significant parts of the Middle East lie in high to very high dust hazard zones, triggered by geomorphological factors, climatic change, socioeconomic pressures, and geopolitical tensions. Integration with machine-learning models accomplished high accuracy in DSM, offering reliable tools for regional planning. The study highlights that if there is no proper land management, future land-use patterns will significantly increase dust storm events. This study provides policymakers and planners with valuable insights for implementing sustainable land-use strategies and targeted mitigation measures to reduce dust-related hazards in the region.

中东地区地处半干旱和干旱气候，毗邻广袤的沙漠，极易发生土地退化和沙尘暴。过去几十年来，土地利用的变化和城市化以越来越快的速度给环境增加了额外的压力。利用CA-Markov模型模拟2040、2070和2100年未来土地利用变化，并评估其对沙尘暴发生的影响。基于1634个沙尘发生点和9个环境因子，采用BA、XGB和CA 3种机器学习模型进行了沙尘暴敏感性制图（DSM）。验证结果表明，BA模型的SPF值为83.55%，AUC值为0.821，优于其他模型。统计检验（Friedman和Wilcoxon）证实了95% CI下模型性能之间存在显著差异。土地利用模拟预测，2040-2070年和2070-2100年期间，荒地和无植被地区将大幅增加，主要原因是不可持续的土地管理、过度放牧、森林砍伐和低效的农业做法，导致土壤退化和植被覆盖能力下降。此外，城市扩张和人口增长肯定会加速农业用地的退化。敏感性地图证实，由于地貌因素、气候变化、社会经济压力和地缘政治紧张局势的影响，中东的大部分地区处于高至极高的粉尘危险区。与机器学习模型的集成实现了DSM的高精度，为区域规划提供了可靠的工具。该研究强调，如果没有适当的土地管理，未来的土地利用模式将显著增加沙尘暴事件。这项研究为决策者和规划者提供了实施可持续土地利用战略和有针对性的缓解措施以减少该地区与沙尘有关的危害的宝贵见解。

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