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Equity Book-to-Market Ratios Above One and Macroeconomic Risk 股票账面市值比高于1与宏观经济风险
Pub Date : 2021-09-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3306503
Mary E. Barth, D. Israeli, Suhas A. Sridharan
Equity book-to-market ratios (BTM) should not exceed one if a firm’s return on equity exceeds its cost of capital or it employs conservative accounting. Yet, BTM is above one for many firms. We address whether BTM above one reflects macroeconomic risk, which could explain this apparent incongruity. We find BTM above one generates larger hedge returns than BTM below one, but HML—the BTM-based return prediction factor—does not explain the returns for BTM above one. We also find that hedge returns for BTM above one are concentrated in recession years and likely reflect risk rather than mispricing. In addition, we find BTM above one reflects potentially overstated equity book values, but only in non-recession years. In contrast, high BTM below one does not generate hedge returns and reflects potentially overstated equity book values in recession and non-recession years. Together, our findings reveal that BTM above one reflects macroeconomic risk, which means that BTM above one has implications for risk assessment, return prediction, and asset under-impairment identification. Our study calls into question using HML as a return prediction factor for BTM above one and using BTM as a generic measure of conservative accounting or as the key indicator of overstated asset book values.
如果一家公司的股本回报率超过其资本成本或采用保守会计,则其账面市值比率(BTM)不应超过1。然而,对于许多公司来说,BTM高于1。我们将讨论上述BTM是否反映了宏观经济风险,这可以解释这种明显的不一致。我们发现高于1的BTM比低于1的BTM产生更大的对冲回报,但hml -基于BTM的回报预测因子-并不能解释高于1的BTM的回报。我们还发现,BTM高于1的对冲回报集中在衰退年份,可能反映的是风险,而不是定价错误。此外,我们发现BTM高于1反映了可能被高估的股票账面价值,但仅在非衰退年份。相比之下,低于1的高BTM无法产生对冲回报,并反映出在衰退和非衰退年份可能被高估的股票账面价值。总之,我们的研究结果表明,高于1的BTM反映了宏观经济风险,这意味着高于1的BTM对风险评估、回报预测和资产减值识别有影响。我们的研究对使用HML作为BTM高于1的回报预测因子以及使用BTM作为保守会计的通用衡量标准或作为夸大资产账面价值的关键指标提出了质疑。
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引用次数: 2
Temporal Reframing of Recurring Savings Reduces Perceived Pain and Helps Those with Lower Financial Literacy to Save 周期性储蓄的时间重构减少了感知的痛苦,并帮助那些金融知识较低的人储蓄
Pub Date : 2021-09-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3923852
Stephen Shu, Steve Thomas, David A. Smith
While assessments of the Gig Economy vary in terms of size, growth, and heterogeneity, most studies suggest that this segment of the economy is sizeable, growing, and diverse in terms of types of work. Some concerns in the literature include both the present and future welfare of workers in the Gig Economy. More granular, temporal reframing of savings (e.g., save $5 a day versus $150 a month) has been shown to improve participation in recurring savings programs, which can be an important tool for Gig Economy workers since they often face do-it-yourself financial savings. This paper extends prior work on temporal reframing to examine in a lab setting the psychology of temporal reframing and non-retirement savings decisions of workers. Key findings include a replication of main effects relative to daily framing increasing savings intentions. Additionally, evidence of reduced psychological pain as evidenced by both subjective feelings and objective thoughts (e.g., through a memory recall task consistent with Query Theory) about affordability is demonstrated. Evidence for granular framing helping those with lower financial literacy is also provided whereas subjective numeracy does not appear to moderate outcomes.
虽然对零工经济的评估在规模、增长和异质性方面各不相同,但大多数研究表明,就工作类型而言,这部分经济规模庞大、不断增长且多样化。文献中的一些担忧包括零工经济中工人的现在和未来福利。更细致、更有时间的储蓄重组(例如,每天存5美元,而不是每月存150美元)已被证明可以提高定期储蓄计划的参与度,这对零工经济工作者来说是一个重要的工具,因为他们经常面临自己动手存钱的问题。本文扩展了前人关于时间重构的研究,在实验室环境下考察了时间重构的心理和工人的非退休储蓄决策。主要发现包括与日常构建增加储蓄意愿相关的主要效应的重复。此外,主观感受和客观想法(例如,通过与查询理论一致的记忆回忆任务)都证明了心理疼痛减轻的证据。还提供了粒度框架有助于金融知识水平较低的人的证据,而主观计算能力似乎并没有缓和结果。
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引用次数: 1
When Beliefs Influence the Perceived Signal Precision: Information Provision Style and the Impact of News 信念对感知信号精度的影响:信息提供方式与新闻影响
Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3263246
Stefanie Schraeder
In a world of increasingly extensive information, rational investors can make better decisions. However, reinforcement-oriented investors are also more likely to observe preferred signals close to their own perception. A focus on these signals distorts the perceived aggregate signal in the direction of the prior estimate. This reduces belief adaptation. Hence, the empirically well-documented selective exposure / reinforcement theory reduces the impact of greater information availability on price efficiency. Additional information can sometimes even decrease perception correctness. In a market with biased investors, managers have an incentive to announce more, diffuse (fewer, precise) signals in case of negative (positive) information. This results in post-earnings-announcement drift and dispersion anomaly. Also, the distribution shape matters for information processing. For unimodal, symmetric distributions, agents' perceptions converge to the fundamental -- even though at a reduced speed. For multimodal signal distributions, the estimate can diverge from the fundamental.
在一个信息日益丰富的世界里,理性的投资者可以做出更好的决策。然而,以强化为导向的投资者也更有可能观察到与自己的感知接近的首选信号。对这些信号的关注会在先前估计的方向上扭曲感知到的聚合信号。这减少了信念适应。因此,经验充分证明的选择性暴露/强化理论减少了更多信息可获得性对价格效率的影响。额外的信息有时甚至会降低感知的正确性。在一个投资者有偏见的市场中,面对负面(正面)信息,管理者有动机宣布更多、更分散(更少、更精确)的信号。这导致了收益公告后的漂移和分散异常。此外,分布形状对信息处理也很重要。对于单峰对称分布,智能体的感知收敛于基本分布——尽管速度降低了。对于多模态信号分布,估计可能偏离基本。
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引用次数: 0
Reciprocity in Multiple Principals - Agent Interactions: Experimental Evidence 多主体中的互惠——代理交互:实验证据
Pub Date : 2021-08-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3913976
J. Schmitz
Agents frequently interact with multiple principals at the same time. An employee may have multiple supervisors, firms may engage in public-private partnerships or firms and individuals may borrow from multiple banks/peers. Digitalization further fuels the possibilities to simultaneously engage in economic transactions with multiple others around the globe (e.g., FinTechs offering financial advice or brokerage). This paper provides experimental evidence on reciprocity in interactions between multiple principals and one agent. In the experiments, one agent interacted with either one or multiple principals and needed to decide whether or not to reciprocate trust. An increase in the number of principals who trusted significantly undermined reciprocity. Principals, however, did not anticipate the decrease in reciprocity. Compared with bilateral principal - agent interactions, trust increased if principals had the possibility to pool risk. Observational field data from 113,000 loans funded by a varying number of investors on a crowdlending platform provides suggestive empirical evidence supporting the experimental results on reciprocity. The propensity of loan default is associated with the number of investors providing the credit. Situations in which multiple principals interact with a single agent may be considerably more risky compared to bilateral interactions. These findings have important implications for understanding, designing and structuring interactions in which multiple principals are involved.
代理经常同时与多个主体交互。一名雇员可能有多个主管,企业可能参与公私合作,或者企业和个人可能向多家银行/同行借款。数字化进一步推动了同时与全球多个其他人进行经济交易的可能性(例如,提供金融咨询或经纪服务的金融科技公司)。本文提供了多个主体和一个代理之间交互中的互惠性的实验证据。在实验中,一个代理与一个或多个主体进行交互,并需要决定是否回报信任。信任的委托人数量的增加大大破坏了互惠性。然而,校长们没有预料到互惠会减少。与双边委托代理互动相比,如果委托人有可能分担风险,信任会增加。在一个众筹平台上,由不同数量的投资者资助的113,000笔贷款的现场观测数据为互惠的实验结果提供了暗示性的经验证据。贷款违约倾向与提供信贷的投资者数量有关。与双边交互相比,多个主体与单个代理交互的情况可能风险更大。这些发现对于理解、设计和构建涉及多个主体的交互具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Quasi-hyperbolic Present Bias: A Meta-analysis 准双曲现在性偏差:一项元分析
Pub Date : 2021-08-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3909663
S. Cheung, Agnieszka Tymula, Xueting Wang
Quasi-hyperbolic discounting is one of the most well-known and widely-used models to capture selfcontrol problems in the economics literature. The underlying assumption of this model is that agents have a “present bias” toward current consumption such that all future rewards are downweighed relative to rewards in the present (in addition to standard exponential discounting for the length of delay). We report a meta-analytic dataset of estimates of the present bias parameter 𝛽 based on searches of all major research databases (62 papers with 81 estimates in total). We find that the literature shows that people are on average present biased for both monetary rewards (𝛽 = 0.82%-|-| confidence interval of [0.74, 0.90]) and non- monetary rewards (𝛽 = 0.66, 95% confidence interval of [0.51, 0.85]) but that substantial heterogeneity exists across studies. The source of this heterogeneity comes from the subject pool, elicitation methodology, geographical location, payment method, mode of data collection (e.g. laboratory or field), and reward type. There is evidence of selective reporting and publication bias in the direction of overestimating the strength of present-bias (making 𝛽 estimates smaller), but present bias still exists after correcting for these issues (for money 𝛽 = 0.87 with 95% confidence interval of [0.82, 0.92] after correcting for selective reporting).
准双曲贴现是经济学文献中最著名和最广泛使用的模型之一,用于捕捉自我控制问题。该模型的基本假设是,代理对当前消费有“当前偏见”,这样所有未来的奖励相对于当前的奖励都被低估了(除了延迟长度的标准指数折扣)。我们报告了一个meta分析数据集,该数据集基于对所有主要研究数据库的搜索(62篇论文,共有81个估计)对当前偏倚参数的估计。我们发现,文献表明,人们对金钱奖励( = 0.82%-|-|置信区间为[0.74,0.90])和非金钱奖励( = 0.66, 95%置信区间为[0.51,0.85])平均存在偏见,但研究之间存在实质性的异质性。这种异质性的来源来自受试者池、启发方法、地理位置、支付方式、数据收集模式(例如实验室或现场)和奖励类型。有证据表明,选择性报道和发表偏倚倾向于高估当前偏倚的强度(使其估计较小),但在对这些问题进行校正后,当前偏倚仍然存在(对于货币,在对选择性报道进行校正后,其95%置信区间为[0.82,0.92])。
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引用次数: 2
Asymmetric Group Loan Contracts: Experimental Evidence 不对称集团贷款合同:实验证据
Pub Date : 2021-08-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3909867
Francesco Carli, S. Suetens, Burak R. Uras, Philine Visser
We design an experiment to study the role of (a)symmetry in the context of group lending with joint liability. The performance of joint-liability contracts crucially hinges on borrowers engaging in peer monitoring. We find that asymmetric contracts, in which monitoring is a dominant strategy for one borrower, increase the monitoring rate, and thus the repayment rate and performance. Moreover, asymmetric contracting also increases expected profits of the lending institution. Overall, our results suggest that asymmetric joint-liability contracts are worth considering as part of a policy to maintain financial stability.
我们设计了一个实验来研究(a)对称性在有连带责任的群体借贷中的作用。连带责任合同的履行在很大程度上取决于借款人是否参与同行监督。我们发现,当监控是一个借款人的主导策略时,非对称契约增加了监控率,从而提高了还款率和绩效。此外,不对称契约也增加了贷款机构的预期利润。总的来说,我们的研究结果表明,不对称连带责任合同值得考虑作为维持金融稳定政策的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
Meme Stocks and Herd Behavior 模因存量和羊群行为
Pub Date : 2021-08-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3909945
A. Aloosh, Hyungeun Choi, Samuel Ouzan
Equity market seems to go viral. The recent epic surge in AMC stock price just three-month following the GameStop short squeeze episode might indicate that meme stocks are unlikely to be an epiphenomenon. This letter explores the investment behavior of meme stock traders, particularly concerning their tendency to exhibit herd behavior. We define the meme stock market as an equally weighted index of stocks whose purchase the Robinhood app restricted during the GameStop short squeeze episode. Over the last two years, using hourly data, we provide robust evidence that herding in meme stocks occurs beyond the brief short squeeze episodes.
股市似乎像病毒一样蔓延开来。最近,在GameStop卖空事件发生仅三个月后,AMC股价就出现了史诗般的飙升,这可能表明,梗股不太可能是一种附带现象。这封信探讨了模因股票交易者的投资行为,特别是关于他们表现出羊群行为的倾向。我们将模因股票市场定义为在GameStop卖空事件期间购买罗宾汉应用的股票加权指数。在过去的两年里,利用每小时的数据,我们提供了强有力的证据,证明在短暂的短期挤压事件之外,meme库存中的羊群现象也会发生。
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引用次数: 1
Investor Impatience and Financial Markets: the Case of the Short Squeeze of Meme Stocks 投资者缺乏耐心与金融市场:以模因股卖空挤压为例
Pub Date : 2021-08-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3908732
J. Choy, Ben Wang, Abdullah AlShelahi, R. Saigal
In this paper, we provide a system of equations to measure investor impatience in financial markets. As in physics, we propose that there exists a measurable force created by external market factors, including investor impatience, which we equate with gravitational force. Using a physics-based Eulerian fluid flow system of equations, we model this force and associated energy conservation equation. We test this hypothesis using minute-by-minute data from meme stocks during a unique market event, the GameStop short squeeze of January 2021. Aside from the effect created by intrinsic market forces, the resulting parameters provide evidence of external force acting on stock prices. We further extend our research to the 2010 flash crash, showing that the system captures external influence on market behavior.
在本文中,我们提供了一个方程组来衡量投资者在金融市场上的不耐心。正如在物理学中一样,我们提出存在一种由外部市场因素(包括投资者的不耐烦)产生的可测量的力量,我们将其等同于引力。使用基于物理学的欧拉流体流动方程组,我们对这种力和相关的能量守恒方程进行了建模。我们使用独特市场事件(2021年1月GameStop空头挤压)期间的meme股票每分钟的数据来测试这一假设。除了内在市场力量产生的影响外,所得参数提供了外部力量作用于股票价格的证据。我们进一步将我们的研究扩展到2010年的闪电崩盘,表明该系统捕捉到了对市场行为的外部影响。
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引用次数: 0
Emotional Response in Investment Decision Making & Sentiment for Apple Inc. Stock 苹果公司投资决策中的情绪反应与情绪股票
Pub Date : 2021-08-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3908148
A. Aitken
The reactions of investors to both good and bad news when it comes to the stock market are very diverse. Most professional investors will argue that their reactions to the stock market rises and falls are based on calculated and scientific investment strategies. There are even investors who choose to make investment choices based on computer programs or newly developed artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to make decisions with regards to the price of stocks and the specific market futures. In reality this is not the case at all. While there are some investors who can leave their emotions at the door, the majority are making their decisions based on emotional responses to the ebbs and flows of stock prices. It does not matter if the information coming out of the stock market is good or bad, the reactions to it is often emotional. Fear, panic, worry, over-confidence, exuberance, and greed will cause an effect on both stock prices and valuations. Investing is a man-made ecosystem; it does not exist in nature. All humans are emotional at their core, therefore their emotional reactions to natural disasters, pandemics, presidential elections, and other political matters will affect their decision to buy or sell.
当涉及到股市时,投资者对好消息和坏消息的反应是非常不同的。大多数专业投资者会辩称,他们对股市涨跌的反应是基于经过计算和科学的投资策略。甚至有投资者根据计算机程序或新开发的人工智能(AI)算法,根据股票价格和特定市场期货做出投资选择。实际上,情况并非如此。虽然有一些投资者可以把自己的情绪留在门外,但大多数投资者都是根据对股价涨落的情绪反应做出决定的。不管从股票市场传来的信息是好是坏,对它的反应往往是情绪化的。恐惧、恐慌、担忧、过度自信、繁荣和贪婪都会对股票价格和估值产生影响。投资是一个人为的生态系统;它在自然界中不存在。所有人在本质上都是情绪化的,因此他们对自然灾害、流行病、总统选举和其他政治事件的情绪反应会影响他们的买卖决定。
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引用次数: 0
Tesla: Is Now the Time to Invest? An examination of Tesla, social media, and its effect on stock 特斯拉:现在是投资的时候了吗?考察特斯拉、社交媒体及其对股票的影响
Pub Date : 2021-08-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3908275
Michele Coiro
Tesla is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company. They are based in Palo Alto, California and their product base consists of electric cars, battery energy storage, solar panels, and solar roof tiles. On an average day in 2021, Tesla stock sells for $700/share. We will review historical Tesla data and examine whether this particular stock is worth the investment? In addition to historical data, this research reviews the effect of traditional news and social media on human behavior. Exploring social media analytics, investor sentiment and behavior in hopes to gauge how these factors can impact Tesla and whether this should be taken into consideration prior to the investment.
特斯拉是一家美国电动汽车和清洁能源公司。他们的总部设在加利福尼亚州的帕洛阿尔托,他们的产品基础包括电动汽车,电池储能,太阳能电池板和太阳能屋顶瓦。2021年,特斯拉股票的平均日售价为每股700美元。我们将回顾特斯拉的历史数据,并检查这只股票是否值得投资?除了历史数据外,本研究还回顾了传统新闻和社交媒体对人类行为的影响。研究社交媒体分析、投资者情绪和行为,希望评估这些因素如何影响特斯拉,以及在投资之前是否应该考虑到这一点。
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引用次数: 0
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Behavioral & Experimental Finance eJournal
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