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Agent-Based Simulation for Localized COVID-19 Intervention Decision 基于agent的局部COVID-19干预决策仿真
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.11159/jbeb.2022.005
Jason Starr, Morgan P. Kain
- Disease models have been a helpful resource which have guided health organizations in choosing appropriate interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, most current models simulate disease spread on a countrywide/statewide level, lacking specificity for localities such as towns or counties. As a result, one-size-fits-all policies are being instituted for entire states despite localities being heterogeneous in many important factors (population density, age demographics, and vaccination rate). Models tailored to individual localities are necessary to facilitate local level health action. In this research, a novel agent-based disease model was created using NetLogo to simulate localized COVID-19 disease dynamics. Individual agents represent each member of a population, and their individual traits (vaccination status, age, etc.) conform to the model input (vaccination rate, age distribution, etc.). Interactions between these agents produce the model outputs, which include predicted infections and deaths. The model was validated using data from state and local health agencies for Westchester County, NY (84.2% accuracy). Using the model, this research aims to answer the following question: what local factors affect COVID-19 outbreak severity and intervention impact? To accomplish this, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for three local variables (vaccination rate, age distribution, intervention applied) and a comparison of locality simulation was conducted for four different U.S. counties. From the results attained, this research concluded that vaccination rate, age distribution, and intervention applied in a locality all contribute significantly to risk level differences between localities, and that higher risk localities are impacted harder by interventions than those with lower risk. Localities can use this model to make health related decisions, and a website (www.localcovidmodel.org) has been created for model access.
-疾病模型是指导卫生组织在COVID-19大流行期间选择适当干预措施的有用资源。然而,目前大多数模型模拟的是全国/州范围内的疾病传播,缺乏对城镇或县等地区的特异性。因此,尽管各地在许多重要因素(人口密度、年龄统计和疫苗接种率)上存在差异,但在整个州都制定了一刀切的政策。为促进地方一级的卫生行动,有必要为个别地方量身定制模式。本研究利用NetLogo建立了一种新的基于agent的疾病模型,用于模拟局部COVID-19疾病动态。个体代理代表群体中的每个成员,其个体特征(疫苗接种状态、年龄等)符合模型输入(疫苗接种率、年龄分布等)。这些因素之间的相互作用产生模型输出,其中包括预测的感染和死亡。该模型使用纽约州威彻斯特县州和地方卫生机构的数据进行了验证(准确率为84.2%)。利用该模型,本研究旨在回答以下问题:哪些局部因素影响COVID-19疫情严重程度和干预效果?为此,我们对三个局部变量(疫苗接种率、年龄分布、采取的干预措施)进行了敏感性分析,并对美国四个不同县的局部模拟进行了比较。从研究结果来看,疫苗接种率、年龄分布和干预措施对地区间的风险水平差异有显著影响,高风险地区比低风险地区受干预的影响更大。地方政府可以使用这个模型来做出与健康相关的决定,并创建了一个网站(www.localcovidmodel.org)供模型访问。
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引用次数: 0
Decision Trees as a Method for Forecasting Seizure Precipitants and Identifying Their Influences on Seizure Outcome 决策树作为一种预测癫痫发作诱因并确定其对癫痫发作结果影响的方法
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.11159/jbeb.2022.007
Dominique L. Tanner, M. Privitera, M. Rao, I. Basu
- Epilepsy is a complex disease that causes unpredictable seizures, which can lead to severe neurological impairments. Not knowing when a seizure will occur, many people with epilepsy often experience feelings such as anxiety, fear, and stress. In an effort to predict when seizures might occur, investigators have used data from patients’ electronic seizure diaries, as well as machine-learning methods, like decision trees. The objective of this work is to create patient-specific decision trees to 1) forecast seizure occurrence and identify seizure precipitants that influence seizure occurrences, and 2) determine seizure precipitants’ level of influence on seizure occurrences. Patients’ (n=64) seizure diaries were examined individually. Diaries contained data on how patients rated mood, predictive symptoms, stress, seizure occurrences, and seizure likelihood using a 5-point Likert scale. Diaries were recorded in the morning and in the evening, thereby evaluating seizures by half days. R Programming software was used for data analysis and decision tree development, and a confusion matrix was used for predictive accuracy. Results showed that precipitants’ influence on patient’s seizure outcome was greater in the morning than in the evening. Patients were also categorized in groups based on shared seizure precipitants. This work introduced non-invasive, personalized healthcare regimen for people with epilepsy.
-癫痫是一种复杂的疾病,会导致无法预测的癫痫发作,从而导致严重的神经损伤。由于不知道癫痫何时会发作,许多癫痫患者经常会感到焦虑、恐惧和压力。为了预测癫痫发作的时间,研究人员使用了患者电子癫痫发作日记中的数据,以及决策树等机器学习方法。这项工作的目的是创建特定于患者的决策树,以1)预测癫痫发作并识别影响癫痫发作的癫痫前兆,以及2)确定癫痫发作前兆对癫痫发作的影响程度。对患者(n=64)的癫痫发作日记进行单独检查。日记中包含了患者如何使用5分李克特量表评估情绪、预测性症状、压力、癫痫发作次数和癫痫发作可能性的数据。日记在早上和晚上记录,从而评估半天的癫痫发作。使用R编程软件进行数据分析和决策树开发,并使用混淆矩阵来预测准确性。结果表明,沉淀剂对患者癫痫发作结局的影响在早晨大于晚上。患者也根据共同的癫痫发作诱因进行分组。这项工作为癫痫患者引入了非侵入性、个性化的医疗保健方案。
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引用次数: 1
The Effect of Sterilization on the Bovine Pericardium Scaffold Decellularized By the Glutaraldehyde-Free Technology 灭菌对无戊二醛技术脱除牛心包支架细胞的影响
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.11159/jbeb.2021.004
N. Shchotkina, A. Sokol, L. Dolinchuk, O. Galkin, Glib I. Glib I., Dmytro A. Yemets, A. Dovghaliuk, I. Skorokhod, Olena V. Olena V., N. Rudenko, I. Yemets
The use of xenotissue for the needs of regenerative and cardiovasculare medicine is a promising area of tissue engineering. The decellularization process provides complete purification of the elastin-collagen matrix of the bovine pericardium from cells and their components. The use of high concentrations of sodium dodecyl sulfate and glutaraldehyde can lead to a damage of the extracellular matrix. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to study the microarchitectonics of the decellularized matrix using a low concentration of sodium dodecyl sulfate (0.1% solution) and avoiding glutaraldehyde. Further stabilization and fixation of the matrix was carried out using 10 mM 1-Ethyl-3 (3dimethylaminopropyl) carbodiimide hydrochloride and 10 mM N-Hydroxysuccinimide. The effect of decellularization was assessed by staining the samples with hematoxylin-eosin and by scanning electron microscopy. Also the research results confirmed the absence of structural changes in the collagenelastin fibers of the matrix after sterilization dose of 10 kGy. Thus, it can be assumed that the radiation method of sterilization may be safe in use for sterilization of bioimplants.
利用异种组织满足再生和心血管医学的需要是组织工程的一个有前途的领域。脱细胞过程提供了从细胞及其成分中完全纯化牛心包弹性蛋白-胶原基质。使用高浓度的十二烷基硫酸钠和戊二醛可导致细胞外基质的破坏。因此,本研究的目的是使用低浓度十二烷基硫酸钠(0.1%溶液)和避免戊二醛来研究脱细胞基质的微结构。用10 mM 1-乙基-3(3 -二甲氨基丙基)卡二亚胺盐酸盐和10 mM n -羟基琥珀酰亚胺进一步稳定和固定基质。用苏木精-伊红染色和扫描电镜观察脱细胞效果。研究结果也证实了10 kGy灭菌剂量后基质的胶原弹性蛋白纤维没有结构变化。因此,可以假定辐射灭菌方法可安全用于生物植入物的灭菌。
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引用次数: 1
Development of High Sensitive and Quantitative FRET Based Biosensor to Detect Atg4A Kinetics in Autophagy Cell Death Pathway 基于FRET的高灵敏度和定量生物传感器在自噬细胞死亡途径中检测Atg4A动力学
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.11159/jbeb.2021.001
C. Hariharan, F. Z. Kadayifci, Fan-chao Zhang, Lei Xu, Jun Li, Shasha Shasha, Jiayu Liao
Cell death is a major process in a biological cell that occurs during development, homeostasis and immune regulation in multicellular organisms. Dysregulation of cell death pathway has been implicated in many diseases. Principal cell death pathways include apoptosis, autophagy, necrosis, mitotic catastrophe, etc. Knowledge of cell death pathways and the reason the cell chooses to die are key factors to understand the disease, the way it affects the cellular system and subsequent drug discovery. This study is focused on developing genetically encoded Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) based biosensors to identify autophagy pathways in vitro. FRET is an energy transfer phenomenon that occurs between two spectrum-overlapping fluorophores that are within 10nm of each other. The design of the sensor is based on enzyme-substrate dynamics and consists of a reporter gene fused between fluorescent proteins. Additionally, FRET-based protease assay has been used to determine the kinetics of Atg4A, an enzyme involved in autophagy. The kinetic parameters Km, kcat, kcat /Km were derived using real-time detection methods. A further aim of this research is to transfect the sensor in H460 lung cancer cell line to identify the type of death that the cell chooses on treatment with drugs.
细胞死亡是多细胞生物在发育、体内平衡和免疫调节过程中发生的一个重要过程。细胞死亡通路的失调与许多疾病有关。细胞死亡的主要途径有凋亡、自噬、坏死、有丝分裂突变等。细胞死亡途径的知识和细胞选择死亡的原因是了解疾病的关键因素,它影响细胞系统的方式和随后的药物发现。本研究的重点是开发基于基因编码Förster共振能量转移(FRET)的生物传感器,以识别体外自噬途径。FRET是一种能量转移现象,发生在两个光谱重叠的荧光团之间,彼此在10nm以内。该传感器的设计基于酶-底物动力学,由荧光蛋白融合的报告基因组成。此外,基于fret的蛋白酶测定已被用于确定Atg4A的动力学,Atg4A是一种参与自噬的酶。采用实时检测方法,得到了动力学参数Km、kcat、kcat /Km。本研究的进一步目的是在H460肺癌细胞系中转染传感器,以确定细胞在药物治疗中选择的死亡类型。
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引用次数: 0
Rapidly Detected Common Wound Pathogens via Easy-to-Use Electrochemical Sensors 通过易于使用的电化学传感器快速检测常见伤口病原体
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.11159/jbeb.2021.002
A. Hannah, A. C. Ward, P. Connolly
The detection of infection in clinical practice is time consuming and laborious. The ability to monitor infection status in real time, for example in wounds, would enable earlier intervention and improved prognosis. This study describes the real time electrochemical detection of clinically important wound pathogens. Using impedance spectroscopy in conjunction with a normalisation approach, the growth of Proteus mirabilis in LB medium was detected 1 hour after sample inoculation at a cell concentration of 7.4 x106 CFU/mL. Furthermore, a significant decrease in charge transfer resistance arose over the 24 hour growth period (p = 0.009), modelled using a simple equivalent circuit. Additional experiments performed in 0.9% w/v NaCl (where growth was inhibited) indicated that processes facilitated by this organism’s metabolism and growth dominated the impedance response in LB medium. Further, immediate detection of a high concentration of P. mirabilis cells was possible (5.0 x108 CFU/mL). Finally, a simulated wound fluid was used to explore the growths of P. mirabilis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus in a more complex environment representative of a wound bed. Similar changes to normalised impedance were observed, and decreases in normalised phase emerged as a characteristic indicator of bacterial growth. The ability of these low cost sensors to rapidly detect bacteria highlights their potential for adoption into point-of-care infection monitoring devices.
在临床实践中检测感染是费时费力的。实时监测感染状况的能力,例如在伤口,将使早期干预和改善预后成为可能。本研究描述了临床重要伤口病原体的实时电化学检测。采用阻抗谱法结合归一化方法,在7.4 x106 CFU/mL的细胞浓度下,接种样品1小时后检测奇异变形杆菌在LB培养基中的生长情况。此外,在24小时的生长期间,电荷转移电阻显著降低(p = 0.009),使用简单的等效电路建模。在0.9% w/v NaCl(生长受到抑制)条件下进行的其他实验表明,这种生物的代谢和生长促进的过程主导了LB培养基中的阻抗响应。此外,可以立即检测到高浓度的P. mirabilis细胞(5.0 x108 CFU/mL)。最后,利用模拟的伤口液来探索神奇假单胞菌、铜绿假单胞菌和金黄色葡萄球菌在更复杂的伤口床环境中的生长情况。观察到与归一化阻抗相似的变化,并且在归一化阶段的减少作为细菌生长的特征指标出现。这些低成本传感器快速检测细菌的能力突出了它们在医疗点感染监测设备中的应用潜力。
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引用次数: 0
The Surgical Knot Conundrum – A Preliminary Experimental & Computational Study on Surgical Knot Integrity 手术结难题——手术结完整性的初步实验与计算研究
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.11159/jbeb.2021.003
Amery Amery, Shu-Che Lee, Kyrin Kyrin
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引用次数: 0
Using Deep Learning for Efficient Diagnoses of COVID-19, Viral Illnesses (Other than COVID-19), and Bacterial Illnesses 利用深度学习高效诊断COVID-19、病毒性疾病(COVID-19除外)和细菌性疾病
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.11159/jbeb.2021.005
V. Vibha
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引用次数: 0
Temporal Selectivity in the LGN: A Computational Neuroscience Approach LGN的时间选择性:一种计算神经科学方法
Pub Date : 2020-12-09 DOI: 10.11159/jbeb.2020.003
Laura Lazzari, P. McCarthy, Jonathan Martin, S. Schultz
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引用次数: 1
Sensitivity Analysis of a Phenomenological Thrombosis Model and Growth Rate Characterisation 现象学血栓模型和生长速率表征的敏感性分析
Pub Date : 2020-12-09 DOI: 10.11159/jbeb.2020.004
G. Melito, A. Jafarinia, T. Hochrainer, K. Ellermann
Aortic dissection is a severe cardiovascular disease caused by the occurrence of a tear in the aortic wall. As a result, the blood penetrates the wall and makes a new blood channel called the false lumen. The haemodynamic conditions in the false lumen may contribute to the formation of thrombi, which influence the patient's diagnosis and outcomes. In this study, the focus is on a haemodynamic-based model of thrombus formation. Since the model construction entails uncertainties in the model parameters, a variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed. Thrombus formation at a backward-facing step is considered as a benchmark for the numerical simulations and sensitivity analysis. This geometry is capable of representing the main contributions of the model in thrombus formation. The study aims at improving the understanding of the model's structure and at preparing model simplifications to enable efficient patient-specific simulations in the future. A polynomial chaos expansion is employed as a surrogate model, from which the quantitative sensitivity indices are derived. In this study, nine model parameters are selected, whose proper values are not well known. The model responses taken into account are the maximum volume fraction of thrombus, its time development, and the thrombus growth rate. The results show that the model lends itself to model reduction since some of the model parameters show little to no influence on the model's outputs. A threshold value related to the concentration of bounded platelets and the bounded platelets reaction rate are identified as the key input parameters dominating the thrombus model predictions in the current geometry. Furthermore, the introduced thrombus characteristic growth time is driven by both the aforementioned variables.
主动脉夹层是由主动脉壁撕裂引起的一种严重的心血管疾病。结果,血液穿过管壁,形成一个新的血液通道,称为假腔。假腔内的血流动力学状况可能导致血栓的形成,从而影响患者的诊断和预后。在这项研究中,重点是基于血流动力学的血栓形成模型。由于模型的构建涉及模型参数的不确定性,因此进行了基于方差的敏感性分析。在一个向后的步骤血栓形成被认为是一个基准的数值模拟和敏感性分析。这种几何形状能够表示血栓形成模型的主要贡献。该研究旨在提高对模型结构的理解,并为模型简化做准备,以便将来能够有效地进行针对特定患者的模拟。采用多项式混沌展开模型作为替代模型,推导出定量灵敏度指标。在本研究中,选取了9个模型参数,它们的合适值尚不清楚。考虑的模型响应是血栓的最大体积分数、血栓的发展时间和血栓的生长速度。结果表明,由于一些模型参数对模型的输出几乎没有影响,因此该模型适合于模型简化。与有界血小板浓度和有界血小板反应速率相关的阈值被确定为当前几何中主导血栓模型预测的关键输入参数。此外,所引入的血栓特征生长时间由上述两个变量驱动。
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引用次数: 3
Blood Rheology Influence on False Lumen Thrombosis in Type B Aortic Dissection 血液流变学对B型主动脉夹层假腔血栓形成的影响
Pub Date : 2020-11-30 DOI: 10.11159/jbeb.2020.002
A. Jafarinia, T. S. Müller, U. Windberger, G. Brenn, T. Hochrainer
Aortic dissection is a disease caused by the occurrence of a rupture in the innermost layer of the aortic wall. Due to the pulsation of the heart, blood penetrates through the tear between the layers of the aortic wall, which causes a new, so-called false lumen (FL). The local haemodynamic conditions in the FL significantly contribute to clotting of blood, so the formation of a thrombus. The level of thrombosis in the FL affects patients’ prognosis and chances of survival, in which a complete thrombosis is usually beneficial. In recent studies on platelet deposition in the FL, it is demonstrated that haemodynamic conditions influence on platelet activation and aggregation, effectively boosting in regions of recirculation. Blood coagulation has the highest chance of occurrence in these recirculation regions within the FL. Considering the dominant influence of shear rate in FL thrombosis, the non-Newtonian rheological properties and behaviour of blood play a crucial role. The most important rheological factor is the volume fraction of red blood cells in the blood, i.e., the haematocrit value (HCT), which affects the shear rate dependent viscosity and the yield stress observed in regions of low shear rate and stress, respectively, in the blood flow. In the current work, the influence of the haematocrit value on thrombosis in the FL is simulated. The simulations are done in idealized aortic dissection phantom models employing HCT-dependent non-Newtonian haemodynamics. The value for the HCT was varied within a physiological range. On the one hand, an increase in the total volume of thrombus in time was found for all HCT values. On the other hand, with increasing HCT values, less thrombus is formed in the FL. This suggests that high HCT values impede thrombus formation due to rheological effects and that patients with higher haematocrit values have less chance of benefiting from complete thrombosis in the FL.
主动脉夹层是由主动脉壁最内层破裂引起的一种疾病。由于心脏的搏动,血液穿过主动脉壁各层之间的裂口,形成一个新的假腔(FL)。FL的局部血流动力学条件显著地促进了血液的凝结,从而形成血栓。FL血栓水平影响患者预后和生存机会,其中完全血栓形成通常是有益的。近年来对FL中血小板沉积的研究表明,血流动力学条件影响血小板的活化和聚集,有效地促进了再循环区域的血小板聚集。血液凝固在FL内的这些再循环区域发生的几率最高。考虑到剪切速率对FL血栓形成的主要影响,血液的非牛顿流变性能和行为起着至关重要的作用。最重要的流变因素是血液中红细胞的体积分数,即红细胞压积值(HCT),它分别影响血流中剪切速率依赖的粘度和在低剪切速率和应力区域观察到的屈服应力。在目前的工作中,模拟红细胞压积值对FL血栓形成的影响。模拟是在理想化的主动脉夹层虚幻模型中进行的,采用hct依赖的非牛顿血流动力学。HCT值在生理范围内变化。一方面,所有HCT值均发现血栓总量随时间的增加。另一方面,随着HCT值的增加,FL中形成的血栓较少。这表明高HCT值由于流变作用阻碍了血栓的形成,高红细胞压积值的患者从FL完全血栓形成中获益的机会较少。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
Open access journal of biomedical engineering and biosciences
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