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Precedents in Peacemaking 建立和平的先例
Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.1163/25895893-bja10038
Andrew Ehrhardt
This article examines the peace settlements of 1815, 1919, and 1945 with an eye towards drawing out certain insights for current conflicts, specifically the Russo-Ukrainian War. Among the points covered in this article are the position and capability of military forces, the alignments and agreements which take place before and after the main peace negotiations, the assumptions around how long a settlement might last, the influence of existing social and intellectual currents which surround the statesmen and women negotiating peace, and the importance of individual personalities in arriving at a lasting and stable peace. How long the war between Russia and Ukraine will last is uncertain, but it is more likely than not that policymakers in Moscow and Kiev, as well as their counterparts in capitals across Europe and beyond, will consider eventual negotiations. This article provides ideas and approaches from some of the most notable precedents in the 19th and 20th centuries, as a way of stimulating thinking about a future peace settlement.
本文考察了1815年、1919年和1945年的和平解决方案,着眼于对当前冲突,特别是俄乌战争的某些见解。本文所涉及的要点包括军事力量的地位和能力,主要和平谈判前后的结盟和协议,关于解决可能持续多久的假设,围绕着谈判和平的政治家和妇女的现有社会和知识潮流的影响,以及个人个性在实现持久和稳定和平方面的重要性。俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的战争将持续多久还不确定,但莫斯科和基辅的政策制定者,以及欧洲和其他国家首都的政策制定者,很可能会考虑最终的谈判。本文从19世纪和20世纪一些最著名的先例中提供了一些想法和方法,以激发人们对未来和平解决方案的思考。
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引用次数: 0
The Clinton Administration’s Policy of Democracy Promotion in Ukraine (1993–2001) 克林顿政府在乌克兰的民主促进政策(1993-2001 年)
Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.1163/25895893-bja10039
James D. Boys
The violence perpetrated against Ukraine has raised questions regarding the direction of U.S. grand strategy since the end of the Cold War, with the Clinton administration’s decision to pursue a policy of democratic promotion in central and eastern Europe coming under specific scrutiny. Was this, as critics suggest, a strategic blunder that prompted Moscow’s apparent attempt to re-establish control over its former satellites, or, as was believed at the time, a necessary step towards political and economic reform of the European continent following the Cold War? This paper reveals how the Democracy Promotion pillar of the Clinton administration’s policy of Engagement and Enlargement aided the development of Ukraine without antagonizing the Kremlin, and the lessons that the Biden administration could glean from this policy thirty years later.
针对乌克兰的暴力行为引发了人们对冷战结束以来美国大战略方向的质疑,克林顿政府在中欧和东欧推行促进民主政策的决定受到了特别审视。这是像批评人士所说的那样,是一个战略失误,促使莫斯科明显试图重新建立对其前卫星国的控制,还是像当时所认为的那样,是冷战后欧洲大陆政治和经济改革的必要步骤?本文揭示了克林顿政府接触和扩大政策的民主促进支柱如何在不对抗克里姆林宫的情况下帮助乌克兰的发展,以及三十年后拜登政府可以从这一政策中吸取的教训。
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引用次数: 0
Two Types of Applied History 两种类型的应用历史
Pub Date : 2023-10-24 DOI: 10.1163/25895893-bja10037
Jay Mens
Abstract In recent years, a concerted effort has been made to build up and delineate a discipline of applied history. But there has been little discussion about what applied history is, how the discipline navigates a range of epistemological problems, and how applied history is distinct from other disciplines that use historical data and attend to matters of policy—particularly political science. This article considers some of these questions with respect to two common methods of applied history: analogy and genealogy. It applies these methods to understand two contemporary issues in the Middle East: the shadow war between Israel and Iran, and maritime tensions between Greece and Turkey.
近年来,应用历史学学科的建立和发展得到了广泛的关注。但是很少有人讨论应用历史是什么,这门学科如何处理一系列认识论问题,以及应用历史如何区别于其他使用历史数据并关注政策问题的学科,尤其是政治学。本文以两种常用的应用历史研究方法:类比法和系谱法来探讨其中的一些问题。它运用这些方法来理解中东的两个当代问题:以色列和伊朗之间的影子战争,以及希腊和土耳其之间的海上紧张局势。
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引用次数: 0
Historical Analogies 历史的类比
Pub Date : 2023-09-28 DOI: 10.1163/25895893-bja10036
Sjoerd Keulen
Abstract Historical analogies are amongst the most important tools in applied history. On the one hand, they are applauded as decision-making tools, on the other hand they are criticised by the historical discipline. In the discipline of applied history, historical analogies remain deconceptualised. This article defines and classifies the various forms of historical analogy. Classification is based on people and events, on how history is learned and on the depth of the lessons learned from historical analogies. The functions of historical analogies in policymaking and decision-making are discussed and clarified by means of historical examples. The article then reflects on the limitations of historical analogies and, to conclude, suggests ways to encourage the correct use of historical analogies.
历史类比是应用历史学中最重要的工具之一。一方面,它们作为决策工具受到称赞,另一方面,它们受到历史学科的批评。在应用历史学科中,历史类比仍然是概念化的。本文对历史类比的各种形式进行了界定和分类。分类的依据是人物和事件,是如何学习历史的,以及从历史类比中吸取教训的深度。通过历史实例,论述和阐明了历史类比在政策制定和决策中的作用。然后,文章反思了历史类比的局限性,最后,提出了鼓励正确使用历史类比的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Historical Events as ‘Magic Yarn Balls’ “神奇纱线球”的历史事件
Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.1163/25895893-bja10035
P. J. Van den Heede, S. Polak
Historical analogies are widely invoked to characterize contemporary events. As we argue that historians should play a central role in assessing these analogies, or at least, that history should offer organized models to think about them, we present a framework for productively engaging with historical analogies in the public debate, policy discussions and elsewhere. First, we introduce the ‘magic yarn ball’ as a central metaphor to capture the textured complexity of historical phenomena in terms of similarity and difference. Second, we propose a general framework inspired by this metaphor to engage with historical analogies, centered on interrogation, individuation, and prospection. We apply our model by assessing analogies between the appointment of Adolf Hitler as chancellor of Germany in 1933 and the inauguration of US president Donald Trump in 2017.
历史类比被广泛用来描述当代事件。当我们认为历史学家应该在评估这些类比中发挥核心作用,或者至少历史应该提供有组织的模型来思考它们时,我们提出了一个框架,用于在公共辩论、政策讨论和其他方面有效地参与历史类比。首先,我们引入了“魔纱球”作为一个中心隐喻,以捕捉历史现象在相似性和差异性方面的纹理复杂性。其次,我们提出了一个受这个隐喻启发的一般框架,以审问、个性化和前瞻性为中心,进行历史类比。我们通过评估1933年阿道夫·希特勒被任命为德国总理和2017年美国总统唐纳德·特朗普就职典礼之间的类比来应用我们的模型。
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引用次数: 0
Front matter 前页
Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.1163/25895893-00501000
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引用次数: 0
Not One Inch, Unless It Is from Lisbon to Vladivostok 没有一英寸,除非是从里斯本到符拉迪沃斯托克
Pub Date : 2022-12-12 DOI: 10.1163/25895893-bja10026
C. Mirra
A careful evaluation of recent history illustrates that the claim that US and NATO expansion threatens Moscow’s existence is an exaggeration. That Russia would inflate fears of NATO to pursue its global aspirations is understandable. What is less comprehensible is the degree to which influential Western thinkers, particularly on the anti-imperial US left, have promoted this narrative. This paper will examine the work of prominent US anti-imperial leftists who view the Russo-Ukrainian war through a US-centric lens, a conceptual framework that distorts the historical record. It will first document how these commentators’ explanatory models give outsized attention to US maneuvers, while neglecting regional fault lines, Russian irredentism and historical nuance. Consequently, many US anti-imperial leftists conclude that the US/NATO alliance is to blame for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This paper will explore Russia-NATO interactions and Moscow’s imperial discourse to demonstrate that the blame NATO stance obfuscates the historical record.
对近代史的仔细评估表明,美国和北约的扩张威胁到莫斯科存在的说法是夸大其词。俄罗斯为了追求其全球抱负而夸大对北约的恐惧是可以理解的。不太容易理解的是,有影响力的西方思想家,尤其是反帝国主义的美国左翼思想家,在多大程度上推动了这种叙事。本文将考察著名的美国反帝国主义左翼人士的工作,他们通过以美国为中心的镜头来看待俄乌战争,这是一个扭曲历史记录的概念框架。本文将首先记录这些评论员的解释模型是如何过度关注美国的军事行动,而忽视了地区断层线、俄罗斯的民族统一主义和历史的细微差别。因此,许多美国的反帝国主义左翼人士得出结论,认为美国/北约联盟应为俄罗斯入侵乌克兰负责。本文将探讨俄罗斯与北约的互动和莫斯科的帝国话语,以证明指责北约的立场混淆了历史记录。
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引用次数: 0
The Identity Politics of Heritage 遗产的身份政治
Pub Date : 2022-12-12 DOI: 10.1163/25895893-bja10031
Olena Betlii
Russia’s war against Ukraine has shown not only how the Kremlin has weaponized history, but also how the victim can fight back by breaking historical ties with the aggressor. Since March 2022, Ukraine has been developing new identity politics of heritage. The article focuses on decisions made by the Kyiv City Council, the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture and Information Policy, and the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory regarding material objects associated with Russian or Soviet heritage. It also shows how Kyiv opinionmakers and experts have reacted to changes that will eventually result in the reshaping of the city’s memory landscape. The article divides the processes of deconstruction of urban space into three categories: decommunization, decolonization, and derussification. Each of them shapes not only the memory space of Kyiv, but also the identities of its residents. The article discusses how the identity politics of heritage work in the event of armed conflict and how different actors define the meaning of heritage during the ongoing war.
俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争不仅表明了克里姆林宫如何将历史武器化,还表明了受害者如何通过打破与侵略者的历史联系进行反击。自2022年3月以来,乌克兰一直在发展新的遗产身份政治。这篇文章的重点是基辅市议会、乌克兰文化和信息政策部以及乌克兰国家记忆研究所就与俄罗斯或苏联遗产有关的实物做出的决定。它还展示了基辅的意见制定者和专家对最终将重塑这座城市记忆景观的变化的反应。本文将城市空间的解构过程分为三类:去解构、去殖民化和去解构。它们不仅塑造了基辅的记忆空间,也塑造了基辅居民的身份。文章讨论了在武装冲突中遗产的身份政治是如何运作的,以及不同的行动者如何在持续的战争中定义遗产的含义。
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引用次数: 2
The Return of History as Travesty Travesty的历史回归
Pub Date : 2022-12-12 DOI: 10.1163/25895893-bja10030
G. Verbeeck
The ‘war against fascism’ constitutes one of the most eccentric tropes in today’s Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Russia is currently mirroring the battle against fascism and National Socialism during World War II in its own brutal invasion of Ukraine in a most extraordinary way. Yet, the ‘antifascism’ rhetoric provides the crucial link between the old Soviet historical narrative and contemporary Russia’s politics of memory. It serves as a concept ‘frozen in time’ and demonstrates how the current Russian leadership espouses an essentially cyclical world view that caters to its own policies of expansion and aggression.
“反法西斯战争”是当今俄乌冲突中最古怪的比喻之一。俄罗斯目前正在以一种最非同寻常的方式残酷入侵乌克兰,以反映二战期间反对法西斯主义和国家社会主义的斗争。然而,“反法西斯主义”言论在旧苏联历史叙事和当代俄罗斯记忆政治之间提供了至关重要的联系。它是一个“冻结在时间中”的概念,展示了俄罗斯现任领导层如何支持一种本质上是周期性的世界观,以迎合其自身的扩张和侵略政策。
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引用次数: 0
Putin and the Third Rome 普京和第三罗马
Pub Date : 2022-12-12 DOI: 10.1163/25895893-bja10032
Niels Drost, Beatrice de Graaf
In this article we use the concept of ‘radicalization’ and ‘usable past’ to analyze how the Russian president Vladimir Putin crafted a specific narrative to legitimize the war against Ukraine. This narrative is the product of a series of ideologically, religiously and historically informed frames that Putin developed over the past 22 years. We outline how Putin made use of christian-imperial history as a ‘usable past’ for him to 1) formulate a new state ideology, 2) mobilize society behind the mission of the Holy Russian Empire, 3) demonize enemies and legitimize their planned destruction, and 4) embed this mission and ideology in an overarching apocalyptical, metaphysical scheme, in which death and war are noble goals for Russians to embrace, in order to obtain their place in heaven.
在这篇文章中,我们使用“激进化”和“可用的过去”的概念来分析俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京是如何精心策划一个特定的叙事来使对乌克兰的战争合法化的。这种叙事是普京在过去22年中发展起来的一系列意识形态、宗教和历史框架的产物。我们概述了普京如何利用基督教帝国历史作为他“可用的过去”:1)制定一种新的国家意识形态,2)动员社会支持神圣俄罗斯帝国的使命,3)妖魔化敌人并使其计划中的破坏合法化,4)将这一使命和意识形态嵌入一个总体的启示录、形而上学的计划中,死亡和战争是俄罗斯人为了在天堂中占有一席之地而拥抱的崇高目标。
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引用次数: 2
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Journal of applied history
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