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Fatality due to falling bullet. 由于下落的子弹而死亡。
IF 1.8 Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70254
Mehmet Tokdemir, Burcu Harmanci, Merve Temel

Falling bullets, resulting from celebratory or random gunfire, represent a predictable yet often overlooked public safety problem. Unlike classical firearm injuries, they usually lack external findings typical of close or intermediate-range gunshot wounds, which complicates diagnosis, medico-legal evaluation, and judicial processes. Children and other vulnerable groups are disproportionately affected, leading to preventable mortality and significant medico-legal and social implications. We report the case of an 11-month-old infant who died after being struck by a falling bullet during a wedding celebration. The external examination revealed only a small entrance wound without soot deposition or tattooing. At autopsy, a depressed fracture of the right parietal bone was identified. The bullet penetrated through the parietal lobe and caused fatal damage at the level of the medulla oblongata. Falling bullets lose their initial velocity and rotational stability during ascent and descent, resulting in yaw and cavitation effects upon impact. Despite relatively low kinetic energy, these mechanisms can produce devastating intracranial injuries, particularly in children with thinner and more elastic skulls. Falling bullets are entirely preventable causes of death and injury. Effective legislation, strict enforcement, community-based awareness campaigns, and multidisciplinary collaboration are essential to reduce their occurrence. This case highlights the medico-legal importance of recognizing falling bullet injuries and underscores the urgent need for public health and legal measures to prevent such tragedies.

由于庆祝或随意射击而导致的子弹落下,是一个可以预见但往往被忽视的公共安全问题。与传统的火器伤害不同,它们通常缺乏近距离或中距离枪伤的典型外部发现,这使诊断、医学法律评估和司法程序复杂化。儿童和其他弱势群体受到不成比例的影响,导致可预防的死亡和重大的医疗法律和社会影响。我们报告的情况下,一个11个月大的婴儿谁死后被一个下落的子弹击中在婚礼庆典。外部检查显示只有一个很小的入口伤口,没有烟灰沉积或纹身。尸检发现右顶骨凹陷性骨折。子弹穿过顶叶在延髓处造成了致命的伤害。下落的子弹在上升和下降过程中失去了初始速度和旋转稳定性,在撞击时产生偏航和空化效应。尽管相对较低的动能,这些机制可以产生毁灭性的颅内损伤,特别是在儿童更薄和更有弹性的头骨。下落的子弹是完全可以预防的死亡和伤害原因。有效的立法、严格的执法、以社区为基础的提高认识运动和多学科合作对于减少此类事件的发生至关重要。这一案件突出了确认下落子弹伤害在医学和法律上的重要性,并强调了迫切需要采取公共卫生和法律措施来防止此类悲剧。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of risk factors and preventive measures for inorganic and organic GSR secondary transfer in arrest scenarios. 逮捕情景中无机和有机GSR二次转移的风险因素评估和预防措施。
IF 1.8 Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70252
Kourtney A Dalzell, Thomas Ledergerber, Madelyn Tymitz, Tatiana Trejos, Luis E Arroyo

This study monitored the transfer of inorganic and organic gunshot residues (IGSR and OGSR) in cases where indirect exposure might be questioned, such as during arrests. Mock arrest scenarios (n = 180) were created to assess the effect of two variables on the secondary transfer. First, the level of contact between the detained and the officer (low, medium, and high) during the arrest protocols. Second, the activities preceding the arrest include situations where the officer or person of interest (POI) discharges a firearm or handles a gun without firing. Additionally, measures to mitigate the risk of GSR transfer from the arresting officer and surfaces were evaluated. This included variables like hand washing, wearing various types of gloves, and bagging the POI's hands during transport in a police vehicle (n = 70). All samples underwent screening (ECD and LIBS) and confirmatory analysis (SEM-EDS and LC-MS/MS). The results indicated that IGSR and OGSR behave differently, with their transfer and persistence varying according to the level of contact, activities, and exposure prior to arrest. Secondary transfer was observed in 69% of the experiments but was less likely to occur for OGSR than for IGSR. The OGSR was more prone to loss, as it was not detected in 93% of the medium- and high-contact scenarios. Preventive measures such as hand washing, wearing nitrile gloves, or bagging hands helped decrease the characteristic IGSR particle counts from 5-80 to none-11. These findings enhance the current knowledge of IGS/OGSR transfer and persistence while providing recommendations for arrest protocols and evidence collection.

本研究监测了在可能质疑间接暴露的情况下,例如在逮捕期间,无机和有机枪击残留物(IGSR和OGSR)的转移。模拟逮捕场景(n = 180)被创建来评估两个变量对二次转移的影响。首先,在逮捕协议期间,被拘留者与警官之间的接触程度(低、中、高)。第二,逮捕前的活动包括警官或利害关系人(POI)使用火器或在不开火的情况下操作枪支的情况。此外,还评估了减轻逮捕人员和表面GSR转移风险的措施。这包括洗手、戴各种类型的手套以及在警车运输过程中给POI的手套上袋子等变量(n = 70)。所有样品都进行了筛选(ECD和LIBS)和验证分析(SEM-EDS和LC-MS/MS)。结果表明,IGSR和OGSR表现不同,其转移和持久性根据接触水平、活动和被捕前的暴露程度而变化。在69%的实验中观察到二次转移,但OGSR比IGSR发生的可能性要小。OGSR更容易丢失,因为它在93%的中、高接触情景中未被检测到。洗手、戴丁腈手套或袋装手等预防措施有助于将典型的IGSR颗粒计数从5-80减少到0 -11。这些发现增强了目前对IGS/OGSR转移和持久性的认识,同时为逮捕协议和证据收集提供了建议。
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引用次数: 0
Forensic interpretation of zolpidem in South Korea (2022-2024): Postmortem specimen analysis and drug-facilitated crimes. 韩国唑吡坦的法医解释(2022-2024):死后标本分析和毒品犯罪。
IF 1.8 Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70251
Meejung Park, Sungmin Moon, Dongeun Park, Bohye Kim, Heejung Kim, Hyunmin Ahn, Jaesin Lee

Zolpidem, a non-benzodiazepine hypnotic, is one of the most widely prescribed sleep aids in South Korea and is frequently implicated in forensic toxicology. A retrospective analysis was conducted on zolpidem-positive autopsy cases (N = 1583) investigated by the National Forensic Service between 2022 and 2024. The manner and cause of death were classified, and zolpidem concentrations were measured in three biological matrices: peripheral blood (PB), cardiac blood (HB), and liver. Zolpidem analysis was performed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS) and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) following solid-phase extraction (SPE). Among zolpidem-positive autopsies, suicide accounted for 43.1% (n = 676), with drug poisoning representing the dominant method (72.8% of suicides). In drug-related suicide cases (n = 251), zolpidem was the sole detected agent in 15.1%, while the majority (84.9%) involved poly-drug exposure. A wide range of non-pharmaceutical toxicants-including carbon monoxide, agrochemicals, chemical substances such as gases, nitrite, ethylene glycol, cyanide, and other miscellaneous agents-were also co-detected. Zolpidem was also the most frequently detected drug in driving under the influence of drugs (DUID) cases (30.0%) and drug-facilitated sexual assault (DFSA) submissions (5.1%) during the study period, highlighting its role in both fatal and nonfatal forensic toxicology. These findings emphasize the importance of appropriate clinical use, matrix- and context-specific toxicological assessment, and strengthened public health strategies to address the potential risks associated with zolpidem use.

唑吡坦是一种非苯二氮卓类催眠药物,是韩国最广泛使用的助眠药物之一,经常在法医毒理学中出现。回顾性分析了2022 ~ 2024年间国立法医学院调查的唑吡坦阳性尸检病例(1583例)。对死亡方式和死因进行分类,并在三种生物基质中测定唑吡坦浓度:外周血(PB)、心肌血(HB)和肝脏。固相萃取(SPE)后,采用气相色谱-质谱(GC/MS)和液相色谱-串联质谱(LC-MS/MS)对唑吡坦进行分析。在唑吡坦阳性尸检中,自杀占43.1% (n = 676),以药物中毒为主要自杀方式(72.8%)。在251例与药物有关的自杀病例中,唑吡坦是15.1%的唯一检测到的药物,而大多数(84.9%)涉及多种药物暴露。广泛的非药物毒物——包括一氧化碳、农用化学品、化学物质如气体、亚硝酸盐、乙二醇、氰化物和其他杂项试剂——也被共同检测到。在研究期间,唑吡坦也是在药物影响下驾驶(DUID)案件(30.0%)和毒品促成性侵犯(DFSA)案件(5.1%)中最常被发现的药物,突出了其在致命和非致命法医毒理学中的作用。这些发现强调了适当的临床使用、基质和环境特异性毒理学评估以及加强公共卫生战略以解决与使用唑吡坦相关的潜在风险的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Prior bleaching of virgin or colored hair has minimal impact on SERS-based hair dye identification. 事先漂白未染或染色的头发对基于sers的染发剂鉴定影响最小。
IF 1.8 Pub Date : 2025-12-21 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70250
Davis Pickett, Aidan Holman, Dmitry Kurouski

In many criminal investigations, scalp hair is commonly used as physical evidence that can be used to identify the suspect. People commonly dye their hair, which requires prebleaching of virgin and previously colored hair. Surface-enhanced raman spectroscopy (SERS) is a minimally destructive, fast, and reliable technique that can detect and identify dyes present on hair. SERS is based on the enhancement provided by Raman scattering from metal nanostructures that can be drop-casted on a small fraction of hair. In this pilot study, we investigate the extent to which prebleaching of virgin and previously colored hair from one subject can alter the accuracy of SERS-based identification of permanent and semipermanent dyes. We found that prebleaching of virgin hair does not affect spectroscopic signatures of dyes applied on such hair afterwards. Prebleaching of colored hair results in only small changes in the intensity of the SERS spectra of dyes applied on it afterwards. However, these small changes do not alter the accuracy of SERS-based analysis of hair dyes. Furthermore, if prebleached, the underlying colorants are not dominant enough to affect SERS spectra of the dyes applied after bleaching, except in cases where the new dye gives weak Raman signals. These findings help to understand the robustness of SERS in the detection and identification of dyes present on hair, highlight the potential for the use of SERS in forensic identification of bleached hair and, consequently, advance the forensic analysis of hair.

在许多刑事调查中,头皮头发通常被用作物证,可以用来识别嫌疑人。人们通常会染发,这需要对未染的头发和之前染过的头发进行预漂白。表面增强拉曼光谱(SERS)是一种破坏性最小、快速、可靠的技术,可以检测和识别头发上存在的染料。SERS是基于金属纳米结构的拉曼散射所提供的增强,金属纳米结构可以滴铸在一小部分头发上。在这项初步研究中,我们调查了在多大程度上预漂白的处女和以前染色的头发从一个主题可以改变基于sers的永久性和半永久性染料鉴定的准确性。我们发现,预漂白的处女发不影响光谱特征的染料应用在这样的头发之后。对染过的头发进行预漂白后,其SERS光谱的强度只会发生很小的变化。然而,这些微小的变化不会改变基于sers的染发剂分析的准确性。此外,如果进行预漂白,除了新染料的拉曼信号较弱的情况外,潜在的色素不会影响漂白后应用的染料的SERS光谱。这些发现有助于理解SERS在检测和鉴定头发上存在的染料方面的稳健性,突出了SERS在法医鉴定漂白头发方面的潜力,从而推进了头发的法医分析。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing DenseNet networks for improved forensic image analysis and tampered image detection. 增强DenseNet网络,改进法医图像分析和篡改图像检测。
IF 1.8 Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70248
Dipesh R Agrawal, Manoj Kumar, Abilash Radhakrishnan, Moirangthem Tiken Singh, Rajnikanth Chinthala

The increasing sophistication of image manipulation techniques challenges traditional forensic image analysis (FIA) methods. Detecting tampered images accurately and efficiently has become crucial, particularly in sectors like law enforcement and media. The objective of this research is to enhance DenseNet architectures to improve tampered image detection by increasing accuracy, reducing processing time, and improving robustness. The approach combines advanced techniques, including Gabor-bilateral filtering (G-BF) for improved feature extraction, MS-DenseNet for multiscale feature extraction (MSFE) and attention mechanisms (AMs), and GAN-DenseNet to generate realistic features. These methodologies help address limitations in detecting subtle image tampering. Enhancing DenseNet improved tampered image detection accuracy from 85% to 95% and reduced processing time from 5 to 7 s to less than 1 s. The model also demonstrated increased robustness, making it suitable for real-world applications in forensic analysis. The future work aims to integrate advanced AMs, fine-tune GANs to enhance feature generation by 10%-15%, optimize real-time detection, and target 98% accuracy for further advancements in FIA and tampered image detection.

图像处理技术的日益复杂挑战了传统的法医图像分析(FIA)方法。准确有效地检测篡改图像已变得至关重要,特别是在执法和媒体等部门。本研究的目的是增强DenseNet架构,通过提高准确性、减少处理时间和提高鲁棒性来改善篡改图像检测。该方法结合了先进的技术,包括用于改进特征提取的gaber -双边滤波(G-BF),用于多尺度特征提取(MSFE)和注意机制(AMs)的MS-DenseNet,以及用于生成逼真特征的GAN-DenseNet。这些方法有助于解决检测细微图像篡改的局限性。增强的DenseNet将篡改图像检测精度从85%提高到95%,并将处理时间从5到7秒缩短到不到1秒。该模型还证明了增强的鲁棒性,使其适用于法医分析中的实际应用。未来的工作目标是集成先进的AMs,微调gan,以提高10%-15%的特征生成,优化实时检测,并以98%的准确率为目标,进一步推进FIA和篡改图像检测。
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引用次数: 0
Non-destructive identification of correction pens and tapes in document fraud using ATR-FTIR and chemometrics. 利用ATR-FTIR和化学计量学对文件欺诈中的校正笔和胶带进行无损识别。
IF 1.8 Pub Date : 2025-12-07 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70243
Bhumika Goyal, Akanksha Sharma, Vishal Sharma

A significant portion of document fraud cases, often associated with organized crime, involves the manipulation of physical records using correction materials such as pen or fluids and tapes. Although these materials are visually similar, they differ in chemical composition. Fluids typically contain volatile organic solvents and pigments, while tapes consist of pigment-coated adhesive films. In this study, the ATR-FTIR spectroscopy as a non-destructive analytical technique was explored to obtain spectral data from 205 prepared samples of correction materials and visually similar substances. PCA was used for exploratory data reduction, followed by PLS-DA for supervised classification based on spectral patterns. Further, feature importance was interpreted using VIP and coefficient plots, highlighting key wavenumbers contributing to class separation. The developed models exhibited excellent performance, achieving 100% accuracy in external validation for differentiating correction materials from similar-looking substances, as well as discriminating between correction pen and correction tape samples. The findings demonstrate that ATR-FTIR spectroscopy coupled with chemometrics provides a fast, accurate, and non-destructive method for the forensic classification of correction materials, offering substantial utility in real-world document examination scenarios. Further, the spectral repository developed in this study offers a valuable reference resource for forensic document examiners, aiding in the identification of questioned materials and supporting the investigation of document forgery cases.

文件欺诈案件的很大一部分往往与有组织犯罪有关,涉及使用钢笔或液体和磁带等纠正材料篡改实物记录。虽然这些材料在外观上很相似,但它们的化学成分不同。流体通常含有挥发性有机溶剂和颜料,而胶带由涂有颜料的胶膜组成。本研究探索了ATR-FTIR光谱作为一种无损分析技术,从205个制备的校正材料和视觉相似物质样品中获得光谱数据。PCA用于探索性数据约简,PLS-DA用于基于光谱模式的监督分类。此外,使用VIP和系数图解释特征重要性,突出显示有助于分类的关键波数。所开发的模型表现出优异的性能,在区分校正材料和相似物质以及区分校正笔和校正带样品的外部验证中达到100%的准确性。研究结果表明,ATR-FTIR光谱与化学计量学相结合,为校正材料的法医分类提供了一种快速、准确、无损的方法,在现实世界的文件检查场景中具有重要的实用性。此外,本研究开发的光谱库为法医文件审查员提供了宝贵的参考资源,有助于鉴定可疑材料并支持文件伪造案件的调查。
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引用次数: 0
A preliminary investigation into the classification of wipe and swipe bloodstain patterns between human and artificial intelligence. 人类与人工智能擦拭和滑动血迹模式分类的初步研究。
IF 1.8 Pub Date : 2025-12-07 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70225
Gareth Griffiths, Duncan J Parker

Bloodstain pattern types, such as wipes and swipes, are frequently encountered at crime scenes and can offer critical insight into the sequence of events. However, these pattern types can be difficult to reliably distinguish, highlighting the need for modern, objective approaches to classification that reduce the potential for human error. In this study, 50 participants were asked to classify 40 test bloodstain pattern images (20 wipes and 20 swipes). These same images were subsequently classified using Microsoft Azure Custom Vision (MACV), an artificial intelligence (AI) image recognition platform. The MACV model was trained using 5425 bloodstain pattern images, including impact, expirated, cessation cast-off, wipe, and swipe stains, across a range of background colors. At the 50th training iteration, the AI achieved 100% accuracy in classifying both wipe and swipe patterns, outperforming participants who achieved an average accuracy of 52% (47% for wipes and 57% for swipes), marking a 48% improvement in classification performance. The model was further trained to the 80th iteration using rotated images, achieving 98.75% accuracy on the rotated test set.

在犯罪现场经常会遇到血迹类型,比如擦痕和擦痕,可以为了解事件的顺序提供关键的见解。然而,这些模式类型很难可靠地区分,因此需要采用现代的、客观的分类方法来减少人为错误的可能性。在这项研究中,50名参与者被要求对40张测试血迹图案图像(20张擦拭和20张滑动)进行分类。这些相同的图像随后使用微软Azure自定义视觉(MACV)进行分类,这是一种人工智能(AI)图像识别平台。MACV模型使用5425个血迹模式图像进行训练,包括一系列背景颜色的冲击、过期、停止丢弃、擦拭和滑动污渍。在第50次训练迭代中,人工智能在擦拭和滑动模式分类方面实现了100%的准确率,超过了平均准确率为52%的参与者(擦拭47%,滑动57%),分类性能提高了48%。使用旋转图像进一步训练模型到第80次迭代,在旋转的测试集上达到98.75%的准确率。
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引用次数: 0
Verification testing in a multi-laboratory system using ANSI/ASB Standard 020. 在多实验室系统中使用ANSI/ASB标准020进行验证测试。
IF 1.8 Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70236
Kyle R Duke, Daniela D Cuenca, Steven P Myers, Jeanette M Wallin

Protocol verification is a fit-for-purpose test of laboratory procedures. We present here verification testing of a DNA mixture interpretation protocol, following ANSI/ASB Standard 020, Standard for Validation Studies of DNA Mixtures, and Development and Verification of a Laboratory's Mixture Interpretation Protocol. The blind testing called for in the standard was performed on a set of nine DNA mixtures created with contributors unique to the verification, using a range of donor ratios (distinguishable and indistinguishable), DNA inputs (0.25-3.6 ng), and numbers of contributors (2-4). The testers ("verifiers") were given .hid files, along with limited contextual information that simulated the state of caseworker knowledge prior to PCR amplification, and they were tasked with determining contributor number and suitability for interpretation, analyzing each interpretable mixture, and generating simple likelihood ratios (LRs) and corresponding verbal predicate assignments. Although the differences observed across verifiers were within the scope of the draft mixture interpretation procedure and resulted in non-consequential differences among the calculated LRs, we found that the process led to significant improvements in training efficiency and pre-release protocol refinement. We also found that DNA mixture selection, verifier training prior to verification testing, and assessment criteria development must all be considered carefully to make the process as effective as possible, particularly in a multi-laboratory system. The planning and results summarized in this paper can serve as a template to other forensic DNA laboratories seeking to incorporate the recommendations of ANSI/ASB Standard 020 into their quality assurance systems.

方案验证是对实验室程序进行的符合目的的测试。我们在此提出DNA混合物解释协议的验证测试,遵循ANSI/ASB标准020,DNA混合物验证研究标准,以及实验室混合物解释协议的开发和验证。标准中要求的盲测是在一组由供体比例(可区分和不可区分)、DNA输入(0.25-3.6 ng)和供体数量(2-4)的独特供体组成的9种DNA混合物上进行的。给出了测试者(“验证者”)。他们的任务是确定贡献者的数量和解释的适用性,分析每种可解释的混合物,并生成简单似然比(LRs)和相应的口头谓词分配。尽管验证者之间观察到的差异在混合解释程序草案的范围内,并导致计算的LRs之间的非相应差异,但我们发现该过程在培训效率和发布前协议改进方面取得了显着改善。我们还发现,DNA混合物的选择、验证测试前的验证者培训和评估标准的制定都必须仔细考虑,以使该过程尽可能有效,特别是在多实验室系统中。本文总结的计划和结果可以作为其他法医DNA实验室寻求将ANSI/ASB标准020的建议纳入其质量保证体系的模板。
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引用次数: 0
Combining morphological traits and measurements of the skull for osteological sex estimation using random forest modeling. 结合形态学特征和测量颅骨骨性别估计使用随机森林模型。
IF 1.8 Pub Date : 2025-11-30 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70241
Morgan J Ferrell, John J Schultz, Donovan M Adams

Forensic anthropologists commonly estimate osteological sex using separate morphological and metric analyses, without integrating both data types into a single classification model. Combining data types into one model has the potential to increase sex classification accuracies for the skull. Therefore, the present study seeks to improve classification accuracies for the skull by combining morphological and metric variables using random forest (RF) modeling. The main objectives are (1) generate multiple RF models that incorporate various combinations of morphological and metric variables for estimating osteological sex from an unknown individual, (2) compare the performance of morphological, metric, and combined data RF models, and (3) compare the results of the RF models to current methods for osteological sex estimation of the skull. The sample included 212 European Americans (males = 106, females = 106) and 191 African Americans (males = 114, females = 77). The models were trained on 80% of the sample and tested using a 20% holdout sample. Multiple models were generated using morphological, metric, and combined variables. Across all model types, the skull and cranium models achieved higher accuracies compared to the mandible models. The morphological and combined models attained higher accuracies compared to the metric models. Additionally, the morphological and combined RF models attained comparable classification accuracies to current standard osteological sex estimation methods, as well as compared to previous studies that integrated skull measurements and traits. Future research should continue exploring RF modeling for osteological sex estimation, including models combining metric and morphological variables from multiple skeletal regions.

法医人类学家通常使用单独的形态学和计量学分析来估计骨骼性别,而不会将这两种数据类型整合到单一的分类模型中。将数据类型合并到一个模型中有可能提高颅骨性别分类的准确性。因此,本研究旨在通过使用随机森林(RF)模型结合形态学和度量变量来提高颅骨分类的准确性。主要目标是:(1)生成多个RF模型,其中包含形态学和度量变量的各种组合,用于估计未知个体的骨性别;(2)比较形态学、度量和组合数据RF模型的性能;(3)将RF模型的结果与目前用于颅骨骨性别估计的方法进行比较。样本包括212名欧洲裔美国人(男性= 106,女性= 106)和191名非洲裔美国人(男性= 114,女性= 77)。这些模型在80%的样本上进行了训练,并使用20%的保留样本进行了测试。使用形态、度量和组合变量生成多个模型。在所有模型类型中,与下颌骨模型相比,颅骨和头盖骨模型获得了更高的准确性。与度量模型相比,形态模型和组合模型获得了更高的精度。此外,形态学和联合RF模型获得了与当前标准骨性别估计方法相当的分类准确性,以及与先前整合头骨测量和特征的研究相比。未来的研究应继续探索骨学性别估计的RF模型,包括结合来自多个骨骼区域的度量和形态学变量的模型。
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引用次数: 0
Examining the influence of lifestyle variables on the accuracy of skeletal age estimation via the pubic symphysis. 通过耻骨联合检查生活方式变量对骨骼年龄估计准确性的影响。
IF 1.8 Pub Date : 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70240
Natalie Moss, Elizabeth Craig-Atkins

This study investigated links between skeletal age estimation error and lifestyle variables to better elucidate sources of interpersonal variability in the rates of skeletal aging. Skeletal age for 180 individuals from the New Mexico Decedent Image Database was estimated by applying the Suchey-Brooks method and transition analysis to 3D models of the pubic symphysis, and age estimates were compared to known age-at-death. Age estimation bias and accuracy for both methods were evaluated first with respect to single lifestyle variables, then random forest modeling was used to test variability with respect to all lifestyle variables. Age estimation bias was shown to be significantly different with respect to sex when applying transition analysis, but not when applying Suchey-Brooks, and males tended to be underaged relative to females of the same age. While no statistically significant differences in bias existed for either method between BMI categories, random forest modeling indicated that body size exerts a limited but variable influence on skeletal aging. Additional variables were highlighted as potentially influential to skeletal aging by random forests, such as socioeconomic status, but ultimately, model performance and variable importance plots demonstrated that these influences were slight and nonuniform. These data suggest that including considerations of lifestyle variables in skeletal aging methods would not improve aging estimates.

本研究调查了骨骼年龄估计误差和生活方式变量之间的联系,以更好地阐明骨骼衰老率的人际变异性的来源。利用Suchey-Brooks方法和对耻骨联合三维模型的过渡分析,对来自新墨西哥死者图像数据库的180个人的骨骼年龄进行了估计,并将估计的年龄与已知的死亡年龄进行了比较。首先针对单一生活方式变量评估两种方法的年龄估计偏差和准确性,然后使用随机森林模型来测试所有生活方式变量的变异性。年龄估计偏倚在性别上存在显著差异,但在Suchey-Brooks分析中无显著差异,且男性相对于相同年龄的女性倾向于年龄偏小。虽然两种方法在BMI类别之间的偏倚没有统计学上的显著差异,但随机森林模型表明,体型对骨骼衰老的影响有限但可变。随机森林强调了其他变量对骨骼老化的潜在影响,如社会经济地位,但最终,模型性能和变量重要性图表明,这些影响是轻微的和不均匀的。这些数据表明,在骨骼老化方法中考虑生活方式变量并不能改善对衰老的估计。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of forensic sciences
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