M. Biesinger, Çağatay Bircan, Alexander Ljungqvist
We open up the black box of value creation in private equity with the help of confidential information on value creation plans and their execution. Plans are tailored to each portfolio company's needs and circumstances, have become more hands-on, and vary with deal type, ownership, growth strategy, and geographic focus. Successful execution is subject to resource constraints, economies of specialization, and diminishing returns, and varies systematically across funds. Successful execution is a key driver of investor returns, especially in growth, buyout, and secondary deals. Company operations and profitability improve in ways consistent with successful execution, even beyond PE funds' exit.
{"title":"Value Creation in Private Equity","authors":"M. Biesinger, Çağatay Bircan, Alexander Ljungqvist","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3607996","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3607996","url":null,"abstract":"We open up the black box of value creation in private equity with the help of confidential information on value creation plans and their execution. Plans are tailored to each portfolio company's needs and circumstances, have become more hands-on, and vary with deal type, ownership, growth strategy, and geographic focus. Successful execution is subject to resource constraints, economies of specialization, and diminishing returns, and varies systematically across funds. Successful execution is a key driver of investor returns, especially in growth, buyout, and secondary deals. Company operations and profitability improve in ways consistent with successful execution, even beyond PE funds' exit.","PeriodicalId":9906,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Financial Economics (Topic)","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75406113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Manuel Adelino, Miguel A. Ferreira, Mariassunta Giannetti, P. Pires
We show that production networks are important for the transmission of unconventional monetary policy. Firms with bonds eligible for purchase under the European Central Bank’s Corporate Sector Purchase Program act as financial intermediaries by extending additional trade credit to their customers. The increase in trade credit is pronounced from core countries to periphery countries and for financially constrained customers. Customers then increase investment and employment in response to the increased trade financing, whereas suppliers expand their customer base, contributing to upstream industry concentration. Our findings suggest that trade credit redistributes the effects of monetary policy across regions and firms.
{"title":"Trade Credit and the Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy","authors":"Manuel Adelino, Miguel A. Ferreira, Mariassunta Giannetti, P. Pires","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3544697","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3544697","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We show that production networks are important for the transmission of unconventional monetary policy. Firms with bonds eligible for purchase under the European Central Bank’s Corporate Sector Purchase Program act as financial intermediaries by extending additional trade credit to their customers. The increase in trade credit is pronounced from core countries to periphery countries and for financially constrained customers. Customers then increase investment and employment in response to the increased trade financing, whereas suppliers expand their customer base, contributing to upstream industry concentration. Our findings suggest that trade credit redistributes the effects of monetary policy across regions and firms.","PeriodicalId":9906,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Financial Economics (Topic)","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88047098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gara M. Afonso, M. Cipriani, Adam Copeland, A. Kovner, Gabriele La Spada, Antoine Martin
This paper studies the mid-September 2019 stress in U.S. money markets: On September 16 and 17, unsecured and secured funding rates spiked up and, on September 17, the effective federal funds rate broke the ceiling of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) target range. We highlight two factors that may have contributed to these events. First, reserves may have become scarce for at least some depository institutions, in the sense that these institutions’ reserve holdings may have been close to, or lower than, their desired level. Moreover, frictions in the interbank market may have prevented the efficient allocation of reserves across institutions, so that although aggregate reserves may have been higher than the sum of reserves demanded by each institution, they were still scarce given the market’s inability to allocate reserves efficiently. Second, we provide evidence that some large domestic dealers likely experienced an increase in intermediation costs, which led them to charge higher spreads to ultimate cash borrowers. This increase was due to a temporary reduction in lending from money market mutual funds, including through the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation’s (FICC’s) sponsored repo program.
{"title":"The Market Events of Mid-September 2019","authors":"Gara M. Afonso, M. Cipriani, Adam Copeland, A. Kovner, Gabriele La Spada, Antoine Martin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3549473","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3549473","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the mid-September 2019 stress in U.S. money markets: On September 16 and 17, unsecured and secured funding rates spiked up and, on September 17, the effective federal funds rate broke the ceiling of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) target range. We highlight two factors that may have contributed to these events. First, reserves may have become scarce for at least some depository institutions, in the sense that these institutions’ reserve holdings may have been close to, or lower than, their desired level. Moreover, frictions in the interbank market may have prevented the efficient allocation of reserves across institutions, so that although aggregate reserves may have been higher than the sum of reserves demanded by each institution, they were still scarce given the market’s inability to allocate reserves efficiently. Second, we provide evidence that some large domestic dealers likely experienced an increase in intermediation costs, which led them to charge higher spreads to ultimate cash borrowers. This increase was due to a temporary reduction in lending from money market mutual funds, including through the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation’s (FICC’s) sponsored repo program.","PeriodicalId":9906,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Financial Economics (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81704190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
espanolExplotando los registros de credito de Espana y de Peru, este trabajo documenta la existencia de cuatro tipos principales de prestamos bancarios (asset-based loans, cash fl ow loans, trade fi nance y leasing) que son facilmente identifi cables y representan la mayor parte del credito corporativo. Asimismo, se muestra que la evolucion agregada del credito depende crucialmente del tipo de prestamo analizado y que los shocks de oferta de credito previamente identifi cados en la literatura varian segun el tipo de prestamo utilizado en su estimacion. Finalmente, el canal bancario de transmision de la politica monetaria y los efectos reales de la crisis fi nanciera que operan a traves de los balances de los bancos se deben principalmente a los denominados cash-fl ow loans, mientras que los otros tipos de prestamos son en su mayoria insensibles a este tipo de efectos. EnglishUsing credit-registry data for Spain and Peru, we document that four main types of commercial credit –asset-based loans, cash fl ow loans, trade fi nance and leasing– are easily identifi able and represent the bulk of corporate credit. We show that credit growth dynamics and bank lending channels vary across these loan types. Moreover, aggregate credit supply shocks previously identifi ed in the literature appear to be driven by individual loan types. The effects of monetary policy and the effects of the fi nancial crisis propagating through banks’ balance sheets are primarily driven by cash fl ow loans, whereas asset-based credit is mostly insensitive to these types of effects.
{"title":"Loan Types and the Bank Lending Channel","authors":"V. Ivashina, L. Laeven, Enrique Moral-Benito","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3543557","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3543557","url":null,"abstract":"espanolExplotando los registros de credito de Espana y de Peru, este trabajo documenta la existencia de cuatro tipos principales de prestamos bancarios (asset-based loans, cash fl ow loans, trade fi nance y leasing) que son facilmente identifi cables y representan la mayor parte del credito corporativo. Asimismo, se muestra que la evolucion agregada del credito depende crucialmente del tipo de prestamo analizado y que los shocks de oferta de credito previamente identifi cados en la literatura varian segun el tipo de prestamo utilizado en su estimacion. Finalmente, el canal bancario de transmision de la politica monetaria y los efectos reales de la crisis fi nanciera que operan a traves de los balances de los bancos se deben principalmente a los denominados cash-fl ow loans, mientras que los otros tipos de prestamos son en su mayoria insensibles a este tipo de efectos. EnglishUsing credit-registry data for Spain and Peru, we document that four main types of commercial credit –asset-based loans, cash fl ow loans, trade fi nance and leasing– are easily identifi able and represent the bulk of corporate credit. We show that credit growth dynamics and bank lending channels vary across these loan types. Moreover, aggregate credit supply shocks previously identifi ed in the literature appear to be driven by individual loan types. The effects of monetary policy and the effects of the fi nancial crisis propagating through banks’ balance sheets are primarily driven by cash fl ow loans, whereas asset-based credit is mostly insensitive to these types of effects.","PeriodicalId":9906,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Financial Economics (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75762031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using comprehensive regulatory data, we examine trading by different investor types in government bond markets. Our sample covers virtually all secondary market trading in gilts and contains detailed information on each transaction, including the identities of both counterparties. We find that hedge funds’ daily trading positively forecasts gilt returns in the following one to five days, which is then fully reversed in the following month. A part of this short-term return predictability is due to hedge funds’ ability to anticipate future demand of other investors. Mutual fund trading also positively predicts gilt returns, but over a longer horizon of one to two months. This return pattern does not revert in the following year and is partly due to mutual funds’ ability to forecast changes in short-term interest rates.
{"title":"Informed Trading in Government Bond Markets","authors":"R. Czech, Shiyang Huang, D. Lou, Tianyu Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3476670","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3476670","url":null,"abstract":"Using comprehensive regulatory data, we examine trading by different investor types in government bond markets. Our sample covers virtually all secondary market trading in gilts and contains detailed information on each transaction, including the identities of both counterparties. We find that hedge funds’ daily trading positively forecasts gilt returns in the following one to five days, which is then fully reversed in the following month. A part of this short-term return predictability is due to hedge funds’ ability to anticipate future demand of other investors. Mutual fund trading also positively predicts gilt returns, but over a longer horizon of one to two months. This return pattern does not revert in the following year and is partly due to mutual funds’ ability to forecast changes in short-term interest rates.","PeriodicalId":9906,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Financial Economics (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83170561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Vicente J. Bermejo, Miguel A. Ferreira, Daniel Wolfenzon, Rafael Zambrana
The Spanish Christmas Lottery is the largest lottery worldwide. We exploit local windfall gains arising from lottery prizes to estimate the effect of income on entrepreneurship. We find higher firm creation and greater self-employment in winning provinces. Our estimates imply that 46 firms are created for every â?¬1,000 increase in disposable income per capita. The effect occurs in both non-tradable and tradable industries, and is more pronounced in regions with poorer access to finance. Firms created in winning provinces are larger, create more value-added, and are more likely to survive. These results suggest that local income and financial development are important drivers of entrepreneurship.
{"title":"Entrepreneurship and Regional Windfall Gains: Evidence from the Spanish Christmas Lottery","authors":"Vicente J. Bermejo, Miguel A. Ferreira, Daniel Wolfenzon, Rafael Zambrana","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3297158","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3297158","url":null,"abstract":"The Spanish Christmas Lottery is the largest lottery worldwide. We exploit local windfall gains arising from lottery prizes to estimate the effect of income on entrepreneurship. We find higher firm creation and greater self-employment in winning provinces. Our estimates imply that 46 firms are created for every â?¬1,000 increase in disposable income per capita. The effect occurs in both non-tradable and tradable industries, and is more pronounced in regions with poorer access to finance. Firms created in winning provinces are larger, create more value-added, and are more likely to survive. These results suggest that local income and financial development are important drivers of entrepreneurship.","PeriodicalId":9906,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Financial Economics (Topic)","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87337632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper develops algorithms to solve strong-substitutes product-mix auctions: it finds competitive equilibrium prices and quantities for agents who use this auction’s bidding language to truthfully express their strong-substitutes preferences over an arbitrary number of goods, each of which is available in multiple discrete units. Our use of the bidding language and the information it provides contrasts with existing algorithms that rely on access to a valuation or demand oracle. We compute market-clearing prices using algorithms that apply existing submodular minimization methods. Allocating the supply among the bidders at these prices then requires solving a novel constrained matching problem. Our algorithm iteratively simplifies the allocation problem, perturbing bids and prices in a way that resolves tie-breaking choices created by bids that can be accepted on more than one good. We provide practical running time bounds on both price finding and allocation and illustrate experimentally that our allocation mechanism is practical. Funding: E. Baldwin and P. Klemperer were supported by the Economic and Social Research Council [Grant ES/L003058/1]. P. W. Goldberg and E. Lock were supported by a JP Morgan faculty fellowship during the work on the final version of the paper. Supplemental Material: The online companion is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2019.0248 .
{"title":"Solving Strong-Substitutes Product-Mix Auctions","authors":"E. Baldwin, P. Goldberg, P. Klemperer, Edwin Lock","doi":"10.1287/moor.2019.0248","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2019.0248","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops algorithms to solve strong-substitutes product-mix auctions: it finds competitive equilibrium prices and quantities for agents who use this auction’s bidding language to truthfully express their strong-substitutes preferences over an arbitrary number of goods, each of which is available in multiple discrete units. Our use of the bidding language and the information it provides contrasts with existing algorithms that rely on access to a valuation or demand oracle. We compute market-clearing prices using algorithms that apply existing submodular minimization methods. Allocating the supply among the bidders at these prices then requires solving a novel constrained matching problem. Our algorithm iteratively simplifies the allocation problem, perturbing bids and prices in a way that resolves tie-breaking choices created by bids that can be accepted on more than one good. We provide practical running time bounds on both price finding and allocation and illustrate experimentally that our allocation mechanism is practical. Funding: E. Baldwin and P. Klemperer were supported by the Economic and Social Research Council [Grant ES/L003058/1]. P. W. Goldberg and E. Lock were supported by a JP Morgan faculty fellowship during the work on the final version of the paper. Supplemental Material: The online companion is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2019.0248 .","PeriodicalId":9906,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Financial Economics (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76303570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Previous research shows that stock repurchases that are caused by earnings management lead to reductions in firm-level investment and employment. It is natural to expect firms to cut less productive investment and employment first, which could lead to a positive effect on firm-level productivity. However, using Census data, we find that firms make cuts across the board irrespective of plant productivity. This pattern seems to be associated with frictions in the labor market. Specifically, we find evidence that unionization of the labor force may prevent firms from doing efficient downsizing, forcing them to engage in easy or expedient downsizing instead. As a result of this inefficient downsizing, EPS-driven repurchases lead to a reduction in long-term productivity.
{"title":"Do Short-Term Incentives Affect Long-Term Productivity?","authors":"Heitor Almeida, Nuri Ersahin, Vyacheslav Fos, Rustom M. Irani, Mathias Kronlund","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3412538","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3412538","url":null,"abstract":"Previous research shows that stock repurchases that are caused by earnings management lead to reductions in firm-level investment and employment. It is natural to expect firms to cut less productive investment and employment first, which could lead to a positive effect on firm-level productivity. However, using Census data, we find that firms make cuts across the board irrespective of plant productivity. This pattern seems to be associated with frictions in the labor market. Specifically, we find evidence that unionization of the labor force may prevent firms from doing efficient downsizing, forcing them to engage in easy or expedient downsizing instead. As a result of this inefficient downsizing, EPS-driven repurchases lead to a reduction in long-term productivity.","PeriodicalId":9906,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Financial Economics (Topic)","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79404825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Francisco Gomes, Alexander Michaelides, Yu-xin Zhang
We propose target date funds modified to exploit stock return predictability driven by the variance risk premium. The portfolio rule of these tactical target date funds (TTDFs) is extremely simplified relative to the optimal one, making it easy to implement and to communicate to investors. We show that saving for retirement in TTDFs generates economically large welfare gains, even after we introduce turnover restrictions and transaction costs, and after taking into account parameter uncertainty. This predictability also appears to be uncorrelated with individual household risk, suggesting that households are in a prime position to exploit it. This paper was accepted by Tomasz Piskorski, finance.
{"title":"Tactical Target Date Funds","authors":"Francisco Gomes, Alexander Michaelides, Yu-xin Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3203311","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3203311","url":null,"abstract":"We propose target date funds modified to exploit stock return predictability driven by the variance risk premium. The portfolio rule of these tactical target date funds (TTDFs) is extremely simplified relative to the optimal one, making it easy to implement and to communicate to investors. We show that saving for retirement in TTDFs generates economically large welfare gains, even after we introduce turnover restrictions and transaction costs, and after taking into account parameter uncertainty. This predictability also appears to be uncorrelated with individual household risk, suggesting that households are in a prime position to exploit it. This paper was accepted by Tomasz Piskorski, finance.","PeriodicalId":9906,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Financial Economics (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86505982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Portfolio and stochastic discount factor (SDF) frontiers are usually regarded as dual objects, and researchers sometimes use one to answer questions about the other. However, the introduction of conditioning information and active portfolio strategies alters this relationship. For instance, the unconditional portfolio frontier in Hansen and Richard (1987) is not dual to the unconditional SDF frontier in Gallant, Hansen and Tauchen (1990). We characterise the dual objects to those frontiers, and relate them to the frontiers generated with managed portfolios, which are commonly used in empirical work. We also study the implications of a safe asset and other special cases.
{"title":"Duality in Mean-Variance Frontiers with Conditioning Information","authors":"Francisco Peñaranda, Enrique Sentana","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.966128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.966128","url":null,"abstract":"Portfolio and stochastic discount factor (SDF) frontiers are usually regarded as dual objects, and researchers sometimes use one to answer questions about the other. However, the introduction of conditioning information and active portfolio strategies alters this relationship. For instance, the unconditional portfolio frontier in Hansen and Richard (1987) is not dual to the unconditional SDF frontier in Gallant, Hansen and Tauchen (1990). We characterise the dual objects to those frontiers, and relate them to the frontiers generated with managed portfolios, which are commonly used in empirical work. We also study the implications of a safe asset and other special cases.","PeriodicalId":9906,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: Financial Economics (Topic)","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77843759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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