ABSTRACT:We present comparative evidence for eight Latin American countries regarding the design and effects of cash transfers (CTs). On the basis of household survey data, we analyze their coverage, importance in household income, and effects on poverty reduction and income redistribution. We present a static microsimulation to analyze the potential impacts of alternative program designs, including perfect targeting and higher budgets. Our results illustrate wide variation in terms of design, coverage, and importance in household income. CTs account for a significant portion of household income in lower deciles. Nonetheless, their effects in terms of reducing the incidence, intensity, and severity of poverty are moderate at best, and although their progressivity is high, their redistributive impact is limited. These results are mainly explained by the meager resources involved. Even under perfect targeting, the budgets allocated would be insufficient to achieve full coverage among households in the lowest part of the income distribution.
{"title":"Cash Transfers in Latin America: Effects on Poverty and Redistribution","authors":"Verónica Amarante, Martín Brun","doi":"10.1353/ECO.2018.0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/ECO.2018.0006","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:We present comparative evidence for eight Latin American countries regarding the design and effects of cash transfers (CTs). On the basis of household survey data, we analyze their coverage, importance in household income, and effects on poverty reduction and income redistribution. We present a static microsimulation to analyze the potential impacts of alternative program designs, including perfect targeting and higher budgets. Our results illustrate wide variation in terms of design, coverage, and importance in household income. CTs account for a significant portion of household income in lower deciles. Nonetheless, their effects in terms of reducing the incidence, intensity, and severity of poverty are moderate at best, and although their progressivity is high, their redistributive impact is limited. These results are mainly explained by the meager resources involved. Even under perfect targeting, the budgets allocated would be insufficient to achieve full coverage among households in the lowest part of the income distribution.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78081452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:We explore the effects of a randomly assigned conditional cash transfer in Honduras (Bono 10,000) on early childhood development. We find significant impacts on cognitive development in children aged zero to sixty months, with an average effect of 0.13 standard deviations. We show differential impacts by type of transfer: zero- to five-year-old children from families receiving the health transfer, which targeted families with zero- to five-year-old children only, benefited significantly from the program, whereas zero- to five-year-olds in families receiving the education transfer, which targeted six- to eighteen-year-olds, perceived no benefit. In comparison with other programs, the effect of this impact is sizable (0.34 standard deviations, on average). Although the overall program appears to have slightly changed some behaviors that might affect children (namely, decreased probability of maternal employment and increased maternal self-esteem), we did not find heterogeneous impacts of the Bono across these variables. Results are explained mainly by differences in conditions: while the education component imposed conditions only on children of school age, the health transfer required regular health checkups of zero- to five-year-old children. The health transfer families were more likely to attend health checkups, which may have induced behavioral changes that improved children's health and cognitive development, including purchasing more nutritious food. These results imply that cash without well-targeted conditions might not be as effective for the development of young children.
{"title":"Cash, Conditions, and Child Development: Experimental Evidence from a Cash Transfer Program in Honduras","authors":"F. Boo, J. Creamer","doi":"10.1353/ECO.2019.0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/ECO.2019.0005","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:We explore the effects of a randomly assigned conditional cash transfer in Honduras (Bono 10,000) on early childhood development. We find significant impacts on cognitive development in children aged zero to sixty months, with an average effect of 0.13 standard deviations. We show differential impacts by type of transfer: zero- to five-year-old children from families receiving the health transfer, which targeted families with zero- to five-year-old children only, benefited significantly from the program, whereas zero- to five-year-olds in families receiving the education transfer, which targeted six- to eighteen-year-olds, perceived no benefit. In comparison with other programs, the effect of this impact is sizable (0.34 standard deviations, on average). Although the overall program appears to have slightly changed some behaviors that might affect children (namely, decreased probability of maternal employment and increased maternal self-esteem), we did not find heterogeneous impacts of the Bono across these variables. Results are explained mainly by differences in conditions: while the education component imposed conditions only on children of school age, the health transfer required regular health checkups of zero- to five-year-old children. The health transfer families were more likely to attend health checkups, which may have induced behavioral changes that improved children's health and cognitive development, including purchasing more nutritious food. These results imply that cash without well-targeted conditions might not be as effective for the development of young children.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86115893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Castañeda, Santiago Garriga, Leonardo Gasparini, L. Lucchetti, Daniel Valderrama
ABSTRACT:This paper contributes to the methodological literature on the estimation of international poverty lines for Latin America based on the official poverty lines chosen by Latin American governments and commonly used in the public debate. The paper exploits a comprehensive data set of 86 up-to-date official extreme and total urban poverty lines across eighteen countries in Latin America, as well as the recently updated values of the national purchasing power parity conversion factors from the 2011 International Comparison Program and a set of harmonized household surveys. Using US$3.00 and US$6.00 per person a day at 2011 PPP as the extreme and total poverty lines, respectively, for Latin America, this paper illustrates the sensitivity of poverty rates to changes of the values of the poverty lines as a result of the recent update of the PPP values, the period of reference, and the relative cost of living across the countries in the region. Total poverty rates in Latin America increase when the 2011 PPP values are used instead of the 2005 PPP values, while the extreme poverty rate is unaffected. In general, country-specific poverty rankings remain fairly stable regardless of the values of the poverty lines selected.
{"title":"How Sensitive Is Regional Poverty Measurement in Latin America to the Value of the Poverty Line?","authors":"R. Castañeda, Santiago Garriga, Leonardo Gasparini, L. Lucchetti, Daniel Valderrama","doi":"10.1353/ECO.2018.0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/ECO.2018.0007","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper contributes to the methodological literature on the estimation of international poverty lines for Latin America based on the official poverty lines chosen by Latin American governments and commonly used in the public debate. The paper exploits a comprehensive data set of 86 up-to-date official extreme and total urban poverty lines across eighteen countries in Latin America, as well as the recently updated values of the national purchasing power parity conversion factors from the 2011 International Comparison Program and a set of harmonized household surveys. Using US$3.00 and US$6.00 per person a day at 2011 PPP as the extreme and total poverty lines, respectively, for Latin America, this paper illustrates the sensitivity of poverty rates to changes of the values of the poverty lines as a result of the recent update of the PPP values, the period of reference, and the relative cost of living across the countries in the region. Total poverty rates in Latin America increase when the 2011 PPP values are used instead of the 2005 PPP values, while the extreme poverty rate is unaffected. In general, country-specific poverty rankings remain fairly stable regardless of the values of the poverty lines selected.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91037602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ezequiel Garcia-Lembergman, Martín A. Rossi, Rodolfo Stucchi
ABSTRACT:In spite of the generalized use of quantitative restrictions on exports, there is little empirical research on their effectiveness to achieve the intended effects of reducing exports, increasing production for the domestic market, and reducing domestic prices. This paper aims at filling this gap by estimating the impact of quantitative restrictions on beef cattle exports in Bolivia, applying a synthetic control approach. Our main finding is that export restrictions have a negative impact not only on total production, but also on production for the domestic market. This fact, together with an increase in the domestic price, is consistent with a supply shift. The fact that export controls can shift supply and actually harm production for the domestic market bears important implications for the design of policies in the future.
{"title":"The Impact of Export Restrictions on Production: A Synthetic Control Approach","authors":"Ezequiel Garcia-Lembergman, Martín A. Rossi, Rodolfo Stucchi","doi":"10.31389/eco.62","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.62","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:In spite of the generalized use of quantitative restrictions on exports, there is little empirical research on their effectiveness to achieve the intended effects of reducing exports, increasing production for the domestic market, and reducing domestic prices. This paper aims at filling this gap by estimating the impact of quantitative restrictions on beef cattle exports in Bolivia, applying a synthetic control approach. Our main finding is that export restrictions have a negative impact not only on total production, but also on production for the domestic market. This fact, together with an increase in the domestic price, is consistent with a supply shift. The fact that export controls can shift supply and actually harm production for the domestic market bears important implications for the design of policies in the future.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80201246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:This paper employs variations in crime rates, attributed to an unprecedented countrywide truce between gangs in El Salvador in 2012, to evaluate the short-term impact of homicides and extortions on the education choices of Salvadoran households. Results reveal that the reduction in homicide rates due to the truce were associated with a migration within the education system, from public to private institutions, among boys aged fifteen to twenty-two years. The fluctuations in homicide rates were also associated with a lower school attendance for girls aged seven to fourteen years, especially due to a lower public school enrollment. No significant association between fluctuations in extortion rates and education choices was observed.
{"title":"The Short-Term Impact of Crime on School Enrollment and School Choice: Evidence from El Salvador","authors":"Juan Nelson Martínez Dahbura","doi":"10.31389/eco.61","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.61","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper employs variations in crime rates, attributed to an unprecedented countrywide truce between gangs in El Salvador in 2012, to evaluate the short-term impact of homicides and extortions on the education choices of Salvadoran households. Results reveal that the reduction in homicide rates due to the truce were associated with a migration within the education system, from public to private institutions, among boys aged fifteen to twenty-two years. The fluctuations in homicide rates were also associated with a lower school attendance for girls aged seven to fourteen years, especially due to a lower public school enrollment. No significant association between fluctuations in extortion rates and education choices was observed.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74008317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cecilia Llambí, A. Rius, Fedora Carbajal, P. Carrasco, Paola Cazulo
ABSTRACT:Investment promotion through tax incentives has been a key component of the growth strategies pursued in Uruguay by the last three administrations. A new regime was established, regulated by Executive Decree 455, which implemented a major overhaul in the main channel for subsidizing investment. This regime immediately generated a battery of researchable questions about its effectiveness and efficiency. Using a large data set, first put together for this study from firm-level administrative records kept by the tax collection and pensions institutes between 2005 and 2011, we test the hypotheses of significant and positive effects of obtaining a tax credit through the new regime on investment and employment outcomes. A matched difference-in-differences strategy confirms that the promotion regime introduced in 2008 had a statistically significant effect on the firms' rate of investment (around 11 percent), while the effects on employment growth rate were more ambiguous. These findings are buttressed by several robustness tests. Further probing uncovers heterogeneity along the promotion timeline, with the greatest effect on the investment rate occurring in a project's first year.
{"title":"Are Tax Credits Effective in Developing Countries?: The Recent Uruguayan Experience","authors":"Cecilia Llambí, A. Rius, Fedora Carbajal, P. Carrasco, Paola Cazulo","doi":"10.31389/eco.58","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.58","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:Investment promotion through tax incentives has been a key component of the growth strategies pursued in Uruguay by the last three administrations. A new regime was established, regulated by Executive Decree 455, which implemented a major overhaul in the main channel for subsidizing investment. This regime immediately generated a battery of researchable questions about its effectiveness and efficiency. Using a large data set, first put together for this study from firm-level administrative records kept by the tax collection and pensions institutes between 2005 and 2011, we test the hypotheses of significant and positive effects of obtaining a tax credit through the new regime on investment and employment outcomes. A matched difference-in-differences strategy confirms that the promotion regime introduced in 2008 had a statistically significant effect on the firms' rate of investment (around 11 percent), while the effects on employment growth rate were more ambiguous. These findings are buttressed by several robustness tests. Further probing uncovers heterogeneity along the promotion timeline, with the greatest effect on the investment rate occurring in a project's first year.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78826926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Federico Bernini, Julia González, J. C. Hallak, Alejandro Vicondoa
ABSTRACT:It is common to assess the evolution of a country's export structure as a manifestation of the extent of progress or stagnation in its development process. Performing this exercise requires determining which features of exported products denote higher stages in that process. We argue that exports of differentiated products, especially when sold to developed countries, signal the acquisition of valuable knowledge that reflects development progress. We propose a new classification, denoted Micro-D, that works at the finest aggregation level in customs nomenclatures to provide a more precise identification of differentiated products. Specifically, the classification uses package size as a proxy for product differentiation to identify differentiated food and beverage exports. Thus, it is especially—though not exclusively—suited to capturing export upgrading in land-abundant developing countries. We apply the Micro-D classification to Argentina in 1998–2011 to deliver a new picture of the country's sources of export upgrading in this period.
{"title":"The Micro-D Classification: A New Approach to Identifying Differentiated Exports","authors":"Federico Bernini, Julia González, J. C. Hallak, Alejandro Vicondoa","doi":"10.31389/eco.59","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.59","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:It is common to assess the evolution of a country's export structure as a manifestation of the extent of progress or stagnation in its development process. Performing this exercise requires determining which features of exported products denote higher stages in that process. We argue that exports of differentiated products, especially when sold to developed countries, signal the acquisition of valuable knowledge that reflects development progress. We propose a new classification, denoted Micro-D, that works at the finest aggregation level in customs nomenclatures to provide a more precise identification of differentiated products. Specifically, the classification uses package size as a proxy for product differentiation to identify differentiated food and beverage exports. Thus, it is especially—though not exclusively—suited to capturing export upgrading in land-abundant developing countries. We apply the Micro-D classification to Argentina in 1998–2011 to deliver a new picture of the country's sources of export upgrading in this period.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83938003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2017.11.003
Alejandro Dabat
{"title":"Esbozo de método para el estudio del siglo xx e inicios del xxi","authors":"Alejandro Dabat","doi":"10.1016/j.ecin.2017.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecin.2017.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.ecin.2017.11.003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81739724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2017.11.001
Jorge Alfonso Calderón Salazar
{"title":"Presente y futuro de la política económica y comercial de México y del tlcan","authors":"Jorge Alfonso Calderón Salazar","doi":"10.1016/j.ecin.2017.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecin.2017.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.ecin.2017.11.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86280140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2017.11.004
María de Lourdes Gutiérrez Cordero , María Jesús Segovia-Vargas , María Ramos Escamilla
This paper describes the use of two different methodological approaches for risk assessment: nonparametric coming from Artificial Intelligence techniques and, in contrast, Generalized Linear Models from statistical parametric. Both practical applications will analyze Lapse Risk, one of the measurable risks that insurance sector must take into account according to Solvency II. Results and conclusions show a new approach and how these techniques can be used by insurance companies as an improvement in Risk Management; encouraging the insurance sector to investigate new methodologies and techniques to deal requirements demanded by Solvency II regulation.
{"title":"Análisis del Riesgo de Caída de Cartera en Seguros: Metodologías de “Inteligencia Artificial” vs “Modelos Lineales Generalizados”","authors":"María de Lourdes Gutiérrez Cordero , María Jesús Segovia-Vargas , María Ramos Escamilla","doi":"10.1016/j.ecin.2017.11.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecin.2017.11.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper describes the use of two different methodological approaches for risk assessment: nonparametric coming from Artificial Intelligence techniques and, in contrast, Generalized Linear Models from statistical parametric. Both practical applications will analyze Lapse Risk, one of the measurable risks that insurance sector must take into account according to Solvency II. Results and conclusions show a new approach and how these techniques can be used by insurance companies as an improvement in Risk Management; encouraging the insurance sector to investigate new methodologies and techniques to deal requirements demanded by Solvency II regulation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.ecin.2017.11.004","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85348792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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