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Downward Wage Rigidities in the Mexican Labor Market: 1996–2011 墨西哥劳动力市场的工资刚性下降:1996-2011
Pub Date : 2016-12-01 DOI: 10.1353/ECO.2018.0010
Laura Juárez, Daniel Casarin de la Cabada
ABSTRACT:In this paper, we provide evidence of the existence and evolution of downward real and nominal wage rigidities in Mexico in the period 1996–2011, which was characterized by a reduction in the level and volatility of inflation. Our results suggest that, throughout the period, a much larger fraction of private sector workers, who stay in the same job from one year to another, are subject to downward real wage rigidities than to nominal ones. Nevertheless, the relative prevalence of nominal rigidities increases slightly as inflation decreases.
摘要:本文提供了1996-2011年期间墨西哥实际和名义工资刚性下降的存在和演变的证据,其特征是通货膨胀水平和波动性下降。我们的研究结果表明,在整个期间,在私营部门工作一年又一年的工人中,实际工资刚性下降的比例要比名义工资刚性下降的比例大得多。然而,名义刚性的相对普遍程度随着通货膨胀的减少而略有增加。
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引用次数: 4
Contagion, Spillover, and Interdependence 传染、溢出和相互依赖
Pub Date : 2016-11-15 DOI: 10.1353/ECO.2019.0002
R. Rigobón
ABSTRACT:This paper reviews the empirical literature on international spillovers and contagion. Theoretical models of spillover and contagion imply that the reduced-form observable variables suffer from two possible sources of bias: endogeneity and omitted variables. These econometric problems, in combination with the heteroskedasticity that plagues the data, produce time-varying biases. Several empirical methodologies are evaluated from this perspective: nonparametric techniques, such as correlations and principal components; and parametric methods, such as OLS, VAR, event studies, ARCH, and nonlinear regressions. The paper concludes that there is no single technique that can solve the full-fledged problem and discusses three methodologies that can partially address some of the questions in the literature.
摘要:本文回顾了国际溢出效应与传染的实证文献。溢出和传染的理论模型暗示,简化形式的可观察变量遭受两种可能的偏差来源:内生性和省略变量。这些计量经济学问题,再加上困扰数据的异方差,产生了时变偏差。从这个角度评估了几种经验方法:非参数技术,如相关性和主成分;和参数方法,如OLS, VAR,事件研究,ARCH和非线性回归。本文的结论是,没有一种技术可以解决全面的问题,并讨论了三种方法,可以部分解决文献中的一些问题。
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引用次数: 68
Assessing the Effect of Payroll Taxes on Formal Employment: The Case of the 2012 Tax Reform in Colombia 评估工资税对正式就业的影响:以2012年哥伦比亚税收改革为例
Pub Date : 2016-11-11 DOI: 10.32468/BE.971
L. Morales, C. Medina
ABSTRACT: In 2013, Colombia implemented a tax reform that reduced payroll taxes by a total of 13.5 percentage points of wages. This paper evaluates the effects of this component of the 2012 Colombian tax reform on firms’ formal employment and average wages. We construct a panel of firms based on their employees’ administrative records. To account for the endogeneity of the treatment, we use an instrumental variables technique that exploits the exogenous variation from the decisions of firms that are similar to each other in several dimensions, but belong to different economic sectors. Based on our preferred specification, we estimate a positive and significant increase in formal employment, as a result of the implementation of the reform, of approximately 213,000 jobs in existing pre-reform firms. In the long run, these effects will increase to more than 600,000 jobs. The effect of the reform on the average wages paid by firms was also found to be positive for some sizes of firms, but the overall effect in the short run is rather small.
摘要:2013年,哥伦比亚实施了一项税收改革,将工资税降低了13.5个百分点。本文评估了2012年哥伦比亚税收改革的这一组成部分对企业正式就业和平均工资的影响。我们根据公司员工的行政记录构建了一个公司小组。为了解释这种待遇的内生性,我们使用工具变量技术,利用企业决策的外生变化,这些企业在几个维度上彼此相似,但属于不同的经济部门。根据我们的首选规格,我们估计,由于改革的实施,在改革前的现有企业中,正式就业人数增加了大约213,000个。从长远来看,这些影响将增加到60多万个就业岗位。改革对企业平均工资的影响也被发现对某些规模的企业是积极的,但短期内的总体影响相当小。
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引用次数: 35
Diversidad en el sector tecnológico de baterías. Una propuesta metodológica basada en la medición de entropía con patentes 电池技术领域的多样性。一种基于熵测量的专利方法
Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2016.11.004
Juan Reyes Álvarez

El trabajo propone una metodología para la medición de la diversidad tecnológica, se considera la entropía como un indicador usando a las patentes y además se conceptualiza la evolución de la diversidad desde una propuesta de los sistemas complejos. Se toma como ejemplo el sector tecnológico de las baterías dada su relevancia actual en la economía.

This paper proposes a methodology to measure technological diversity. It is through Entropy (information theory Shannon) and patents as the indicator is constructed. The interpretation is based on the theory of complex systems and concepts of exploration and exploitation. The battery technology sector is the case study for its current importance in the economy.

本文提出了一种测量技术多样性的方法,将熵作为使用专利的指标,并从复杂系统的建议中概念化多样性的演变。本文以电池技术部门为例,考虑到其目前在经济中的重要性。本文提出了一种衡量技术多样性的方法。它是通过热力学(信息理论香农)和专利来构建的。这一解释是基于复杂系统理论和勘探开发概念。电池技术部门是其目前在经济中的重要性的案例研究。
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引用次数: 2
Los precios a través de la economía de la información. Una aplicación entre el peso mexicano y el dólar estadounidense, 2014-2016 通过信息经济的价格。2014-2016年墨西哥比索和美元之间的应用
Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2016.11.001
Javier Galán Figueroa

In this document, the economics of information theory is used to explain the impact of dollar auctions in the parity between the Mexican peso and the US dollar to the period of January 2014 and March 2016. For this is considered the George Stigler model which explains how the prices are determined in markets with asymmetric information. The results suggest that the strategy of dollar auctions was one of several other factors affecting the price dispersion dollar during the study period.

本文运用信息论经济学解释了2014年1月至2016年3月期间墨西哥比索与美元平价美元拍卖的影响。这被认为是乔治·斯蒂格勒模型,它解释了在信息不对称的市场中价格是如何决定的。结果表明,在研究期间,美元拍卖策略是影响美元价格分散的其他几个因素之一。
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引用次数: 1
Estadística de las trayectorias más exitosas en el juego de minorías 统计少数民族游戏中最成功的轨迹
Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2016.11.002
Germán Medina Pérez

The present paper considers the decision problem of the bar “El Farol”, posed by the economist Brian Arthur. From which the computational algorithm that simulates the decision problem with a large number of rational agents was developed, best known as the game of minorities. The game of minorities turns out to be a problem of game theory that exhibits the time competition that exists between adaptive rational agents. The complexity that characterizes the problem arises from the fact that people do not interact directly with each other, but through a common closed environment created by themselves. In addition to reproducing the most cited results of the same, we simulate a set of “mixed games” in order to contrast different memories to determine in which of them the agents involved in the game get better performance or better gains over time. So we study their statistical properties, more specifically, the statistical distribution that players’ earnings exhibit over time.

本文考虑了经济学家布莱恩·阿瑟提出的“El Farol”酒吧的决策问题。由此发展出了一种模拟具有大量理性主体的决策问题的计算算法,被称为少数人博弈。少数人博弈是一个博弈论问题,它表现了适应性理性主体之间存在的时间竞争。这个问题的复杂性源于这样一个事实,即人们并不直接相互作用,而是通过他们自己创造的一个共同的封闭环境。除了重现最常被引用的结果外,我们还模拟了一组“混合游戏”,以对比不同的记忆,以确定参与游戏的代理在哪种情况下会随着时间的推移获得更好的表现或更好的收益。所以我们研究他们的统计属性,更具体地说,是玩家收入随时间的统计分布。
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引用次数: 0
Causalidad entre ingresos y gastos públicos en México (1982-2015) 墨西哥政府收入与支出的因果关系(1982-2015)
Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2016.11.003
Eduardo Ramírez Cedillo

This document proposes the review of the relationship income-expenditure for the Mexican economy under the behavior they have had in the last 35 years can be described in four moments. The objective is to provide evidence of how the study period in the relationship of income and expenditures in the country has changed because of different events such as the restrictions on the expansion of spending, the achievement of fiscal discipline, high oil prices that have resulted in additional revenue, among other elements.

本文提出,在过去35年的行为下,墨西哥经济的收入-支出关系可以用四个时刻来描述。其目的是提供证据,说明研究期间该国的收入和支出关系如何由于不同的事件而发生变化,例如限制扩大支出、实现财政纪律、高油价导致额外收入等因素。
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引用次数: 5
La onda larga de los precios de alimentos 1990-2016 1990-2016年食品价格的长波
Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2016.11.005
Edmar Salinas Callejas

This article analyzes the factors that determine the evolution and the behavior of food prices between 1990 to 2016. It emphasizes the global economy conditions which affect markets and its impact in the globalization process. Likewise, it reviews the particular situation on the economies that had decisive influence on this process like China, India, Brasil, South Africa and Russia. It concludes that the global economic slowdown has a positive impact on the decline of food prices and agricultural goods due to a growth rate decrease related to the supply on this goods.

本文分析了1990 - 2016年粮食价格演变的影响因素及其走势。它强调影响市场的全球经济状况及其对全球化进程的影响。同样,报告审查了对这一进程具有决定性影响的经济体,如中国、印度、巴西、南非和俄罗斯的具体情况。它的结论是,全球经济放缓对食品价格和农产品的下降有积极的影响,因为与这些商品的供应有关的增长率下降。
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引用次数: 2
School Infrastructure and Educational Outcomes: A Literature Review, with Special Reference to Latin America 学校基础设施与教育成果:文献回顾,特别参考拉丁美洲
Pub Date : 2016-10-01 DOI: 10.31389/eco.47
Ana Cuesta, P. Glewwe, B. Krause
ABSTRACT:International development agencies and country governments have called for greater resources to be devoted to education. While previous studies highlight the value of investing in education, they do not shed light on which specific educational investments should be pursued. This paper examines both the economics literature and the education literature published from 1990 to 2012 to assess the extent to which specific types of school infrastructure have a causal impact on student learning and enrollment. There is some evidence that school libraries and the creation of new schools leads to improved learning and enrollment. The literature also provides some evidence that toilets improve student learning, and that laboratories and drinking water facilities increase enrollment. Perhaps the main conclusion of this study is that the evidence base is weak, so more high-quality research is needed on the impact of infrastructure on learning and time in school in developing countries.
摘要:国际发展机构和各国政府呼吁加大对教育的投入。虽然以前的研究强调了投资教育的价值,但它们并没有阐明应该进行哪些具体的教育投资。本文考察了1990年至2012年间发表的经济学文献和教育文献,以评估特定类型的学校基础设施对学生学习和入学的因果影响程度。有一些证据表明,学校图书馆和新学校的创建导致了学习和入学率的提高。文献还提供了一些证据,证明厕所可以改善学生的学习,实验室和饮用水设施可以增加入学人数。也许本研究的主要结论是证据基础薄弱,因此需要对发展中国家基础设施对学习和在校时间的影响进行更多高质量的研究。
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引用次数: 21
Nowcasting Mexico’s Short-Term GDP Growth in Real-Time: A Factor Model versus Professional Forecasters 实时预测墨西哥短期GDP增长:一个因素模型与专业预测者
Pub Date : 2016-10-01 DOI: 10.31389/eco.49
Marcelo Delajara, Federico Hernández Álvarez, Abel Rodríguez Tirado
ABSTRACT:We introduce a novel real-time database for the Mexican economy and propose a small-scale mixed-frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Mexico’s short-term GDP growth in real-time. We compare our factor-based backcasts, nowcasts, and forecasts with those of the consensus of the survey of professional forecasters during the period from the second quarter of 2008 through the second quarter of 2014. Our results suggest that our factor-based backcasts, nowcasts, and forecasts outperform those of the consensus of professional forecasters in real-time comparisons despite some structural instability during the 2008–09 crisis and its aftermath in 2010.
摘要:本文引入了一个新的墨西哥经济实时数据库,并提出了一个实时预报墨西哥短期GDP增长的小尺度混频动态因子模型。我们将基于因素的预测、临近预测和预测与专业预测者在2008年第二季度至2014年第二季度期间的调查结果进行了比较。我们的研究结果表明,尽管2008-09年危机及其余波在2010年出现了一些结构性不稳定,但我们基于因素的反向预测、临近预测和预测在实时比较中优于专业预测者的共识。
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引用次数: 3
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Economía Informa
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