Marcus Gerardus L. Nascimento, K. Becker, Mario Jorge Cardoso Mendonca
ABSTRACT:This paper investigates the relation between inefficiency in the Brazilian education system and municipal wealth, discussing how the current legislation possibly influences it. To that end, we apply a stochastic frontier model that accommodates covariates in the asymmetric error component to analyze the impact of per capita GDP on inefficiency. This methodology is applied to a data set on the Rio Grande do Sul municipalities for the years 2007 and 2017. The results indicate a positive effect, suggesting that richer municipalities are less efficient in allocating their resources.
{"title":"Implications of Brazilian Institutional Guidelines on Educational Efficiency","authors":"Marcus Gerardus L. Nascimento, K. Becker, Mario Jorge Cardoso Mendonca","doi":"10.1353/eco.2020.0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eco.2020.0009","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper investigates the relation between inefficiency in the Brazilian education system and municipal wealth, discussing how the current legislation possibly influences it. To that end, we apply a stochastic frontier model that accommodates covariates in the asymmetric error component to analyze the impact of per capita GDP on inefficiency. This methodology is applied to a data set on the Rio Grande do Sul municipalities for the years 2007 and 2017. The results indicate a positive effect, suggesting that richer municipalities are less efficient in allocating their resources.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80716783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-18DOI: 10.18800/economia.202001.004
Dante A. Urbina
This article provides a survey of the existing literature on the effects of corruption on economic growth, foreign direct investment, income inequality, human development, and natural resources sector. Both the theoretical arguments and the empirical evidence are considered. It is found that: i) Several studies support a negative impact of corruption on growth (sand the wheel hypothesis), but there are also studies supporting a positive impact (grease the wheels hypothesis); ii) Concerning the impact of corruption on foreign direct investment, the evidence is also mixed since there are studies supporting a negative effect (the “grabbing hand” view), a positive effect (the “helping hand” view), and even no significant effect; iii) The great majority of studies find that corruption generates more income inequality, although some studies find an inverse relationship in regions where the informal sector is large; iv) There is a strong consensus regarding that corruption hampers human development by affecting aspects like poverty, education and health; v) Most of studies show that there is a direct association between corruption and the natural resources sector, especially in the mining, oil and gas industries. In addition, research challenges of economics of corruption in aspects like the definition of corruption, multidisciplinary perspective, econometric specification, and data issues are discussed.
本文对腐败对经济增长、外国直接投资、收入不平等、人类发展和自然资源部门影响的现有文献进行了调查。理论论证和实证证据都得到了考虑。研究发现:1)一些研究支持腐败对增长的负面影响(sand the wheel假说)，但也有研究支持积极影响(grease the wheels假说);ii)关于腐败对外国直接投资的影响，证据也好坏参半，因为有研究支持负面影响(“掠夺之手”观点)，积极影响(“援助之手”观点)，甚至没有显著影响;iii)绝大多数研究发现，腐败造成了更多的收入不平等，尽管一些研究发现，在非正规部门规模较大的地区，腐败与收入不平等呈反比关系;(四)人们强烈一致认为，腐败会影响贫穷、教育和卫生等方面，从而阻碍人类发展;(五)大多数研究表明，腐败与自然资源部门，特别是采矿、石油和天然气工业之间存在直接联系。此外，还讨论了腐败经济学在腐败定义、多学科视角、计量经济学规范和数据问题等方面的研究挑战。
{"title":"The Consequences of a Grabbing Hand: Five Selected Ways in Which Corruption Affects the Economy","authors":"Dante A. Urbina","doi":"10.18800/economia.202001.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.202001.004","url":null,"abstract":"This article provides a survey of the existing literature on the effects of corruption on economic growth, foreign direct investment, income inequality, human development, and natural resources sector. Both the theoretical arguments and the empirical evidence are considered. It is found that: i) Several studies support a negative impact of corruption on growth (sand the wheel hypothesis), but there are also studies supporting a positive impact (grease the wheels hypothesis); ii) Concerning the impact of corruption on foreign direct investment, the evidence is also mixed since there are studies supporting a negative effect (the “grabbing hand” view), a positive effect (the “helping hand” view), and even no significant effect; iii) The great majority of studies find that corruption generates more income inequality, although some studies find an inverse relationship in regions where the informal sector is large; iv) There is a strong consensus regarding that corruption hampers human development by affecting aspects like poverty, education and health; v) Most of studies show that there is a direct association between corruption and the natural resources sector, especially in the mining, oil and gas industries. In addition, research challenges of economics of corruption in aspects like the definition of corruption, multidisciplinary perspective, econometric specification, and data issues are discussed.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75926422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use skills surveys from 53 countries to estimate jobs’ amenability to working from home (WFH). Our measure combines data on self-reported jobs’ characteristics and home internet access into a standardized measure. We find that jobs’ amenability to WFH increases with economic development. Women, college graduates, and salaried and formal workers have jobs that are more amenable to WFH than the average. The opposite holds for workers in hotels and restaurants, construction, agriculture, and commerce. We validate our measure using longitudinal data from Chile and showing that WFH amenability correlates negatively with job losses between 2019 and 2020 and positively with the observed share of workers who worked from home in 2020. Finally, occupations explain less than one third of the variability in the WFH measure and its components, highlighting the importance of using individual-level data to assess jobs’ amenability to WFH. JEL Classification Codes: J22; J61; O30
{"title":"Jobs' Amenability to Working from Home: Evidence from Skills Surveys for 53 Countries","authors":"Maho Hatayama, Mariana Viollaz, Hernan Winkler","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-9241","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9241","url":null,"abstract":"We use skills surveys from 53 countries to estimate jobs’ amenability to working from home (WFH). Our measure combines data on self-reported jobs’ characteristics and home internet access into a standardized measure. We find that jobs’ amenability to WFH increases with economic development. Women, college graduates, and salaried and formal workers have jobs that are more amenable to WFH than the average. The opposite holds for workers in hotels and restaurants, construction, agriculture, and commerce. We validate our measure using longitudinal data from Chile and showing that WFH amenability correlates negatively with job losses between 2019 and 2020 and positively with the observed share of workers who worked from home in 2020. Finally, occupations explain less than one third of the variability in the WFH measure and its components, highlighting the importance of using individual-level data to assess jobs’ amenability to WFH.\u0000 \u0000JEL Classification Codes: J22; J61; O30","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90462833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:Rio de Janeiro hosted two major sports events in a two-year period: the FIFA World Cup and the Summer Olympic Games. After the announcements of the city as the host of these events, the government launched the Favela Pacification Program. The program consists in the expulsion of drug-trafficking organizations from territories where they used to exert a monopoly on violence. The identification strategy used in this paper exploits the time and space variation in the deployment of police forces and the organized crime structure of criminal activity in Rio de Janeiro to evaluate the causal effect of the program on criminal activity. The results indicate that the program caused a displacement of drug-trade-related violence. We also find that the program caused a reduction in violence in pacified territories, but this result may be the consequence of contamination of the control group.
{"title":"The Impact of Police Presence on Drug-Trade-Related Violence","authors":"Emiliano Tealde","doi":"10.1353/eco.2019.0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eco.2019.0008","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:Rio de Janeiro hosted two major sports events in a two-year period: the FIFA World Cup and the Summer Olympic Games. After the announcements of the city as the host of these events, the government launched the Favela Pacification Program. The program consists in the expulsion of drug-trafficking organizations from territories where they used to exert a monopoly on violence. The identification strategy used in this paper exploits the time and space variation in the deployment of police forces and the organized crime structure of criminal activity in Rio de Janeiro to evaluate the causal effect of the program on criminal activity. The results indicate that the program caused a displacement of drug-trade-related violence. We also find that the program caused a reduction in violence in pacified territories, but this result may be the consequence of contamination of the control group.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82591949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:In this study, we examine the history of sovereign credit ratings in Latin America and the Caribbean, the evolution of credit quality, and the relationship between rating changes and the cost of accessing external financing as reflected in the behavior of sovereign bond spreads. We apply an event study to estimate the impact of credit rating changes on sovereign bond spreads in the past fifteen years. We find that the impact is asymmetric (with a larger impact for downgrades) and is sensitive to both spatial and temporal clustering. The results suggest that the quality of sovereign credit is important in determining the cost of access to private external financing.
{"title":"Sovereign Credit Ratings in Latin America and the Caribbean: History and Impact on Bond Spreads","authors":"I. Bustillo, Daniel E. Perrotti, Helvia Velloso","doi":"10.1353/eco.2019.0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eco.2019.0011","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:In this study, we examine the history of sovereign credit ratings in Latin America and the Caribbean, the evolution of credit quality, and the relationship between rating changes and the cost of accessing external financing as reflected in the behavior of sovereign bond spreads. We apply an event study to estimate the impact of credit rating changes on sovereign bond spreads in the past fifteen years. We find that the impact is asymmetric (with a larger impact for downgrades) and is sensitive to both spatial and temporal clustering. The results suggest that the quality of sovereign credit is important in determining the cost of access to private external financing.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76791535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:This paper proposes a theoretical framework to study pension income indexation from the retirees' point of view. The theoretical model is then used to calculate the optimal indexation measure for different cohorts of retirees using historical data from Uruguay. The results suggest that for most of the cohorts, but particularly for those retiring in the 1970s and 1990s, the optimal strategy would be to choose the consumer price index (CPI) as the pension income indexation measure. Even for cohorts retiring after the 1989 Constitutional reform that established the average nominal earnings index (ANEI) as the indexation measure, the CPI is still the preferred indexation measure. To show the robustness of the results, two alternative criteria are used to assess the two indexation measures, with similar results.
{"title":"Pension Income Indexation: A Mean-Variance Approach","authors":"Rodrigo Lluberas","doi":"10.1353/eco.2019.0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eco.2019.0007","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper proposes a theoretical framework to study pension income indexation from the retirees' point of view. The theoretical model is then used to calculate the optimal indexation measure for different cohorts of retirees using historical data from Uruguay. The results suggest that for most of the cohorts, but particularly for those retiring in the 1970s and 1990s, the optimal strategy would be to choose the consumer price index (CPI) as the pension income indexation measure. Even for cohorts retiring after the 1989 Constitutional reform that established the average nominal earnings index (ANEI) as the indexation measure, the CPI is still the preferred indexation measure. To show the robustness of the results, two alternative criteria are used to assess the two indexation measures, with similar results.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77182058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:Ecuador, a developing small open economy, serves as an important case study for aggregate productivity growth and input reallocation. Since little is known about the economic performance of Ecuador with its crisis and reforms between 1998 and 2007, this paper uses a comprehensive microdata set from Ecuador's National Statistics and Census Institute to study Ecuadorian firm dynamics in that period. We find that the reallocation of factor inputs (2.6 percent) and technical efficiency growth (3.2 percent) on the intensive margin are the dominant sources of aggregate productivity growth. Net entry, as a channel of reallocation on the extensive margin, generally has minor effects (–0.1 percent) and contributes to productivity growth only in the later recovery period (2002–04).
{"title":"Productivity and Reallocation: Evidence from Ecuadorian Firm-Level Data","authors":"A. T. Ho, Kim P. Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez","doi":"10.1353/eco.2019.0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eco.2019.0009","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:Ecuador, a developing small open economy, serves as an important case study for aggregate productivity growth and input reallocation. Since little is known about the economic performance of Ecuador with its crisis and reforms between 1998 and 2007, this paper uses a comprehensive microdata set from Ecuador's National Statistics and Census Institute to study Ecuadorian firm dynamics in that period. We find that the reallocation of factor inputs (2.6 percent) and technical efficiency growth (3.2 percent) on the intensive margin are the dominant sources of aggregate productivity growth. Net entry, as a channel of reallocation on the extensive margin, generally has minor effects (–0.1 percent) and contributes to productivity growth only in the later recovery period (2002–04).","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74701577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-10-29DOI: 10.18800/economia.201902.004
M. Zevallos
In this paper I present a model to forecast the daily Value at Risk (VaR) of the Peruvian stock market (measured through the general index of the Lima Stock Exchange: the IGBVL) based on intraday (high-frequency) data. Daily volatility is estimated using realised volatility and I adopted a regression quantile approach to calculate one-step predicted VaR values. The results suggest that the realised volatility is a useful measure to explain the Peruvian stock market volatility and I obtained sound results using quantile regression for risk estimation.
{"title":"A Note on Forecasting Daily Peruvian Stock Market Volatility Risk Using Intraday Returns","authors":"M. Zevallos","doi":"10.18800/economia.201902.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.201902.004","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper I present a model to forecast the daily Value at Risk (VaR) of the Peruvian stock market (measured through the general index of the Lima Stock Exchange: the IGBVL) based on intraday (high-frequency) data. Daily volatility is estimated using realised volatility and I adopted a regression quantile approach to calculate one-step predicted VaR values. The results suggest that the realised volatility is a useful measure to explain the Peruvian stock market volatility and I obtained sound results using quantile regression for risk estimation.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73366074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-10-29DOI: 10.18800/economia.201902.005
César Martinelli, M. Vega
We apply synthetic control methods to study the long-term consequences of the interventionist and collectivist reforms implemented by the Peruvian military junta of 1968–1975. We compare long-term outcomes for the Peruvian economy following the radical reforms of the early 1970s with those of two controls made of similar countries, one chosen in the Latin American region and another one chosen from the world at large. We find that the economic legacy of the junta includes sizable loses in GDP along two decades, beyond those that can be attributed to adverse international circumstances. The evidence suggests that those loses can be attributed both to a decline in capital accumulation and to a fall in productivity.
{"title":"The Economic Legacy of General Velasco: Long-Term Consequences of Interventionism","authors":"César Martinelli, M. Vega","doi":"10.18800/economia.201902.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.201902.005","url":null,"abstract":"We apply synthetic control methods to study the long-term consequences of the interventionist and collectivist reforms implemented by the Peruvian military junta of 1968–1975. We compare long-term outcomes for the Peruvian economy following the radical reforms of the early 1970s with those of two controls made of similar countries, one chosen in the Latin American region and another one chosen from the world at large. We find that the economic legacy of the junta includes sizable loses in GDP along two decades, beyond those that can be attributed to adverse international circumstances. The evidence suggests that those loses can be attributed both to a decline in capital accumulation and to a fall in productivity.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83432241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-10-29DOI: 10.18800/economia.201902.001
C. Chasco, P. Aroca, L. Anselin
In this theoretical note, we propose the GProbit model as an alternative to gravity models to esti-mate grouped-data flows. This is a model based on the random utility theory, which is consistentwith the principle of population behavior. Instead of migrant counts, the dependent variable ofthe GProbit model of flows consists of a number of observed proportions. It allows explaining thepropensity to migrate from any origin to a destination, which is an interesting relative conceptnot affected by the size effect. For this reason, it is expected to have better fit and less problemsof non-normality, as illustrated by an application for the internal migration flows of the Spanishregions.
{"title":"Probit Models for Grouped-data Migration Flows: A Theoretical Note","authors":"C. Chasco, P. Aroca, L. Anselin","doi":"10.18800/economia.201902.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.201902.001","url":null,"abstract":"In this theoretical note, we propose the GProbit model as an alternative to gravity models to esti-mate grouped-data flows. This is a model based on the random utility theory, which is consistentwith the principle of population behavior. Instead of migrant counts, the dependent variable ofthe GProbit model of flows consists of a number of observed proportions. It allows explaining thepropensity to migrate from any origin to a destination, which is an interesting relative conceptnot affected by the size effect. For this reason, it is expected to have better fit and less problemsof non-normality, as illustrated by an application for the internal migration flows of the Spanishregions.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89442632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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