Economía Informa最新文献

The article studies the commercial integration of Mexico with the United States and China and its effects on the local integration of the Mexican productive apparatus. Information is presented for 220 industrial classes, covering the period 2003-2014. Based on different typologies, it is shown how China's entry into the WTO in 2001 deepened the import dependence of the Mexican manufacturing apparatus, both in the export industries and domestic market industries. Among other outcomes, China has directly displaced the United States as the main importer in 152 industries operating in Mexico, of which 62 are export oriented and 87% of them are destined for the United States. This phenomenon reveals the emergence of an industrial organization that has been established between Mexican industries with China and the United States, with adverse effects in local productive linkages. The remaining 90 industries have strong local production chains and are relevant in employment generation; in these industries, the massive entry of Chinese imports has displaced investment, employment and local supply. Current macroeconomic and mesoeconomic policy has encouraged this special kind of local-global integration.

With the entry into force of the Federal Law of the Isim on January 1, 1948 established the tax with which the federation began the coordination of the tax system of trade and industry in Mexico through a gradual scheme whose progress depended on the signing of coordination agreements between said level of government and the federative entities, which jointly aimed to centralize the branch. This coordination scheme also sought to advance towards the establishment of a tax figure that relied exclusively on consumption (final transactions). In this context, the main objective of the present article is to explain this configuration of double transition implied in the isim, from the problems that the federation faced before its establishment. In this sense, we intend to understand the beginning of the coordination process in this area through the problem of the distribution of the tax authorities that arose between the federal and local tax authorities and the difficulties that the federation faced in order to establish immediately the tax on consumption.

Over the last decades, there has been a growing literature that emphasizes on the capacity of commercial banks to increase the money supply through the act of lending and the relation of the credit channel with the economic growth. Following this economic theory approach, this paper evaluates the causality and the short-term effects between the banking credit and the economic growth in Mexico through the estimation of a Vector Autoregressive (var) model. The main results indicate that from 2001Q1 to 2016Q4 the gdp growth has Granger-caused and a positive effect on the rate of growth of banking credit; however, there is no evidence of causality or any effect of banking credit to the gdp. These results are relevant and could be explained by factors of supply and demand in the credit market.

The article studies, at the methodological and empirical level, the behavior of China's fdi in Latin America and the Caribbean (lac). In the first part, the oecd directional approach is discussed, because its implementation is crucial for improving global fdi statistics. The approach suggests, among other things, the exclusion of Special Purpose Entities from fdi statistics, since their inclusion distorts the amount, origin and destination of the investment. The issue is crucial to China, because its companies usually direct their investments through third countries. The paper highlights the need to adequately distinguish fdi from other capital flows. In the empirical part, the methodology and trends of Chinese fdi in lac are presented for the period 2001-2016, based on the database of Dussel Peters and Ortiz Velásquez (2017). The results show a high concentration of Chinese fdi in Brazil, Peru and Argentina. The main motivation of Chinese fdi continues to be the securing of raw materials. In addition, Chinese companies have increased their presence in the region through by acquiring or merging with large local enterprises, therefore their contribution to the expansion of the capital stock and employment is limited. Since 2010, China's fdi in infrastructure has grown, if this trend continues, China could contribute to reduce the regional trade imbalances and it could contribute to raise the low regional infrastructure investment ratio.

One of the most representative instruments of social policy for fighting poverty in Mexico is the Oportunidades (opportunities in English) Program. Its performance on the demand side has generated positive results; however, the poverty figures have not presented a steady decline. Faced with this limitation, numerous studies held that poverty has to be attacked from the supply side, being the autonomous income generation the most significant anchor for this purpose. For this reason, and in order to determine the impact of the Oportunidades Program, for autonomous income generation, particularly on earnings from work, that is, if the Program promotes the creation of income from productive activities that contribute to overcoming the state of poverty and vulnerability in which millions of families live. Therefore, a Propensity Score Matching model is created on the recipient population of Oportunidades and its equivalent control group. The most significant finding was that membership of the program negatively impacts income for work, which means that being a participant does not promote the generation of earnings from work, thus requiring a change in strategy.