Pub Date : 2019-09-16DOI: 10.18800/ECONOMIA.201901.001
F. Estrada, Pierre Perron
Climate change detection and attribution have been the subject of intense research and debate over at least four decades. However, direct attribution of climate change to anthropogenic activities using observed climate and forcing variables through statistical methods has remained elusive, partly caused by the difficulties for correctly identifying the time-series properties of these variables and by the limited availability of methods for relating nonstationary variables. This paper provides strong evidence concerning the direct attribution of observed climate change to anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions by first investigating the univariate time-series properties of observed global and hemispheric temperatures and forcing variables and then by proposing statistically adequate multivariate models. The results show that there is a clear anthropogenic fingerprint on both global and hemispheric temperatures. The signal of the well-mixed GHG forcing in all temperature series is very clear and accounts for most of their secular movement since the beginning of observations. Both temperature and forcing variables are characterized by piecewise linear trends with abrupt changes in their slopes estimated to occur at different dates. Nevertheless, their long-term movements are so closely related that the observed temperature and forcing trends cancel out. The warming experimented during the last century was mainly due to the increase in GHG which was partially offset by the effect of tropospheric aerosols. Other forcing sources, such as solar, are shown to only contribute to (shorter-term) variations around the GHG forcing trend.
{"title":"Breaks, Trends and the Attribution of Climate Change: A Time-Series Analysis","authors":"F. Estrada, Pierre Perron","doi":"10.18800/ECONOMIA.201901.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18800/ECONOMIA.201901.001","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change detection and attribution have been the subject of intense research and debate over at least four decades. However, direct attribution of climate change to anthropogenic activities using observed climate and forcing variables through statistical methods has remained elusive, partly caused by the difficulties for correctly identifying the time-series properties of these variables and by the limited availability of methods for relating nonstationary variables. This paper provides strong evidence concerning the direct attribution of observed climate change to anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions by first investigating the univariate time-series properties of observed global and hemispheric temperatures and forcing variables and then by proposing statistically adequate multivariate models. The results show that there is a clear anthropogenic fingerprint on both global and hemispheric temperatures. The signal of the well-mixed GHG forcing in all temperature series is very clear and accounts for most of their secular movement since the beginning of observations. Both temperature and forcing variables are characterized by piecewise linear trends with abrupt changes in their slopes estimated to occur at different dates. Nevertheless, their long-term movements are so closely related that the observed temperature and forcing trends cancel out. The warming experimented during the last century was mainly due to the increase in GHG which was partially offset by the effect of tropospheric aerosols. Other forcing sources, such as solar, are shown to only contribute to (shorter-term) variations around the GHG forcing trend.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90287924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-09-16DOI: 10.18800/economia.201901.003
A. Figueroa
Do market relative prices reflect real scarcity of resources? If this were so, market prices would provide society with the correct signals about real scarcities. Economics—the science of scarcity— has different answers to this question. Following the principles of current epistemology, the paper reviews three theories of markets: neoclassical, bio-economics, and unified theory, analyzing their assumptions, their derived empirical predictions about the relation between market prices and scarcity, and their validity when confronted against known basic facts. Clarifying misconceptions about the nature and the role of the market mechanism in the functioning of capitalism is the expected contribution of the paper.
{"title":"Do Market Prices Reflect Real Scarcity? Theories and Facts","authors":"A. Figueroa","doi":"10.18800/economia.201901.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.201901.003","url":null,"abstract":"Do market relative prices reflect real scarcity of resources? If this were so, market prices would provide society with the correct signals about real scarcities. Economics—the science of scarcity— has different answers to this question. Following the principles of current epistemology, the paper reviews three theories of markets: neoclassical, bio-economics, and unified theory, analyzing their assumptions, their derived empirical predictions about the relation between market prices and scarcity, and their validity when confronted against known basic facts. Clarifying misconceptions about the nature and the role of the market mechanism in the functioning of capitalism is the expected contribution of the paper.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89379691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-09-16DOI: 10.18800/economia.201901.002
C. A. Abanto-Valle, Hernán B. Garrafa-Aragón
This paper extends the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model specification proposed in So et al. (2002) and Chen et al. (2008) by incorporating thick-tails in the mean equation innovation using the scale mixture of normal distributions (SMN). A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed to estimate all the parameters and latent variables. Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting via a computational Bayesian framework are considered. The MCMC-based method exploits a mixture representation of the SMN distributions. The proposed methodology is applied to daily returns of indexes from BM&F BOVESPA (BOVESPA), Buenos Aires Stock Exchange (MERVAL), Mexican Stock Exchange (MXX) and the Standar & Poors 500 (SP500). Bayesian model selection criteria reveals that there is a significant improvement in model fit for the returns of the data considered here, by using the THSV model with slash distribution over the usual normal and Student-t models. Empirical results show that the skewness can improve VaR and ES forecasting in comparison with the normal and Student-t models.
本文扩展了So et al.(2002)和Chen et al.(2008)提出的阈值随机波动(THSV)模型规范，利用正态分布的尺度混合(SMN)将厚尾纳入均值方程创新。提出了一种贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法来估计所有参数和潜在变量。考虑了计算贝叶斯框架下的风险价值(VaR)和预期缺口(ES)预测。基于mcmc的方法利用SMN分布的混合表示。所提出的方法应用于BM&F BOVESPA (BOVESPA)，布宜诺斯艾利斯证券交易所(MERVAL)，墨西哥证券交易所(MXX)和标准普尔500指数(SP500)的指数的日收益。贝叶斯模型选择标准表明，通过在通常的正态模型和Student-t模型上使用斜线分布的THSV模型，对这里考虑的数据收益的模型拟合有显着改善。实证结果表明，与正态模型和Student-t模型相比，偏度可以改善VaR和ES的预测。
{"title":"Threshold Stochastic Volatility Models with Heavy Tails: A Bayesian Approach","authors":"C. A. Abanto-Valle, Hernán B. Garrafa-Aragón","doi":"10.18800/economia.201901.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.201901.002","url":null,"abstract":"This paper extends the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model specification proposed in So et al. (2002) and Chen et al. (2008) by incorporating thick-tails in the mean equation innovation using the scale mixture of normal distributions (SMN). A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed to estimate all the parameters and latent variables. Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting via a computational Bayesian framework are considered. The MCMC-based method exploits a mixture representation of the SMN distributions. The proposed methodology is applied to daily returns of indexes from BM&F BOVESPA (BOVESPA), Buenos Aires Stock Exchange (MERVAL), Mexican Stock Exchange (MXX) and the Standar & Poors 500 (SP500). Bayesian model selection criteria reveals that there is a significant improvement in model fit for the returns of the data considered here, by using the THSV model with slash distribution over the usual normal and Student-t models. Empirical results show that the skewness can improve VaR and ES forecasting in comparison with the normal and Student-t models.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84464179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:This paper offers a methodology to improve targeting design and assessment when two or more groups need to be considered, and trade-offs exist between using different targeting mechanisms. The paper builds from the multidimensional targeting challenge facing conditional cash transfers (CCTs). I analyze whether a common CCT targeting mechanism, namely, a proxy means test (PMT), can identify the poor and future school dropouts effectively. Despite both being key target groups for CCTs, students at risk of dropping out are rarely considered for CCT allocation or in targeting assessments. Using rich administrative data sets from Chile to simulate different targeting mechanisms, I compare the targeting effectiveness of a PMT and other mechanisms based on a predictive model of school dropout. I build this model using machine learning algorithms. Using two novel metrics, I show that combining the outputs of the predictive model with the PMT increases targeting effectiveness except when the social valuation of the poor and future school dropouts differs to a large extent. More generally, public officials who value their key target groups equally may improve policy targeting by modifying their allocation procedures.
{"title":"Two Become One: Improving the Targeting of Conditional Cash Transfers with a Predictive Model of School Dropout","authors":"Cristian Crespo","doi":"10.1353/eco.2020.0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eco.2020.0011","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper offers a methodology to improve targeting design and assessment when two or more groups need to be considered, and trade-offs exist between using different targeting mechanisms. The paper builds from the multidimensional targeting challenge facing conditional cash transfers (CCTs). I analyze whether a common CCT targeting mechanism, namely, a proxy means test (PMT), can identify the poor and future school dropouts effectively. Despite both being key target groups for CCTs, students at risk of dropping out are rarely considered for CCT allocation or in targeting assessments. Using rich administrative data sets from Chile to simulate different targeting mechanisms, I compare the targeting effectiveness of a PMT and other mechanisms based on a predictive model of school dropout. I build this model using machine learning algorithms. Using two novel metrics, I show that combining the outputs of the predictive model with the PMT increases targeting effectiveness except when the social valuation of the poor and future school dropouts differs to a large extent. More generally, public officials who value their key target groups equally may improve policy targeting by modifying their allocation procedures.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":"32 1","pages":"1 - 45"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73516168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:Tax evasion lies at the core of the relationship between citizens and the state: it reflects the level of trust in the state and compliance with society's implicit social contract. However, empirically analyzing tax evasion is challenging, particularly because there are few direct and reliable measures. We conduct list experiments on a large sample of households to estimate how frequently consumers are willing to be complicit in value added tax (VAT) evasion, as well as the extent of social desirability bias in respondent answers. Around 20 percent of respondents agree to make purchases without a receipt in order to avoid paying VAT; surprisingly, they are not ashamed to admit this openly. Evasion is more prevalent in places with more informality and less physical presence of the state, as well as among poorer, less educated individuals and those who disregard the rule of law.
{"title":"Consumers as VAT \"Evaders\": Incidence, Social Bias, and Correlates in Colombia","authors":"L. Fergusson, Carlos A. Molina, J. Riaño","doi":"10.1353/ECO.2019.0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/ECO.2019.0001","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:Tax evasion lies at the core of the relationship between citizens and the state: it reflects the level of trust in the state and compliance with society's implicit social contract. However, empirically analyzing tax evasion is challenging, particularly because there are few direct and reliable measures. We conduct list experiments on a large sample of households to estimate how frequently consumers are willing to be complicit in value added tax (VAT) evasion, as well as the extent of social desirability bias in respondent answers. Around 20 percent of respondents agree to make purchases without a receipt in order to avoid paying VAT; surprisingly, they are not ashamed to admit this openly. Evasion is more prevalent in places with more informality and less physical presence of the state, as well as among poorer, less educated individuals and those who disregard the rule of law.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":"55 1","pages":"21 - 67"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80925794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:We study the effect of extra resource revenues on employment expenditures at the municipal level in Chile. We exploit a novel quasi-experiment: a legal reform in 2005 that increased the portion of the income collected from mining licenses that is assigned to municipalities where mines operate from 30 to 50 percent. Our main result is a statistically significant expansion of municipal employment expenditures in mining municipalities, driven by expenditures on long-term employment. Additionally, we found a meaningful effect on allowances to the municipal council, but we did not find a robust impact on transfers to health, transfers to community programs, or municipal investment, while the increase in transfers to education is small with respect to the employment expenditures effect. These results are complemented by evidence of an increase in the mayor's probability of reelection not related to the provision of public goods, which links our findings with the clientelism mechanism of resource rents. Our results also have several implications for the fiscal decentralization debate in resource-abundant economies.
{"title":"Resource Windfalls and Public Sector Employment: Evidence from Municipalities in Chile","authors":"F. Larraín, Oscar P. Perelló","doi":"10.1353/ECO.2019.0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/ECO.2019.0004","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:We study the effect of extra resource revenues on employment expenditures at the municipal level in Chile. We exploit a novel quasi-experiment: a legal reform in 2005 that increased the portion of the income collected from mining licenses that is assigned to municipalities where mines operate from 30 to 50 percent. Our main result is a statistically significant expansion of municipal employment expenditures in mining municipalities, driven by expenditures on long-term employment. Additionally, we found a meaningful effect on allowances to the municipal council, but we did not find a robust impact on transfers to health, transfers to community programs, or municipal investment, while the increase in transfers to education is small with respect to the employment expenditures effect. These results are complemented by evidence of an increase in the mayor's probability of reelection not related to the provision of public goods, which links our findings with the clientelism mechanism of resource rents. Our results also have several implications for the fiscal decentralization debate in resource-abundant economies.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":"18 1","pages":"127 - 167"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81993325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:In 2009, for the first time, Puerto Rico's unconditional median earnings gender gap presented a statistically significant negative sign. We document the elements that lead to an overall improvement in women's economic position and find that the unconditional earnings gap turns positive once observable characteristics are considered. For instance, we find that the negative gender gap disappears when we adjust for educational attainments as a new indicator of gender gaps. In general, relative differences in returns on education and a glass ceiling effect moderated by dependent children are two of the explanatory factors allowing for the continuation of gender disparities within groups. There is also a direct association between women's representation in a given occupation/education group and the gender earnings gap.
{"title":"Do Gender Disparities Exist Despite a Negative Gender Earnings Gap?","authors":"José Caraballo-Cueto, Eileen Segarra-Alméstica","doi":"10.1353/ECO.2019.0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/ECO.2019.0003","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:In 2009, for the first time, Puerto Rico's unconditional median earnings gender gap presented a statistically significant negative sign. We document the elements that lead to an overall improvement in women's economic position and find that the unconditional earnings gap turns positive once observable characteristics are considered. For instance, we find that the negative gender gap disappears when we adjust for educational attainments as a new indicator of gender gaps. In general, relative differences in returns on education and a glass ceiling effect moderated by dependent children are two of the explanatory factors allowing for the continuation of gender disparities within groups. There is also a direct association between women's representation in a given occupation/education group and the gender earnings gap.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":"218 1","pages":"101 - 125"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77135334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:This paper documents negative cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) to five exchange rate devaluations in Venezuela within the context of stiff exchange controls and large black-market premiums, using daily stock prices for 110 multinational corporations with Venezuelan subsidiaries. The results suggest evidence of statistically and economically significant negative CARs of up to 2.07 percent over the ten-day event window. We find consistent results using synthetic controls to causally infer the effect of each devaluation on the stock prices of global firms active in the country at the time of the event. Our results are at odds with the predictions of the efficient market hypothesis stating that predictable devaluations should not affect the stock prices of large multinational companies on the day of the event, and even less so when they happen in small countries. We interpret these results as a suggestive indication of market inefficiencies in the process of asset pricing.
{"title":"Fool's Gold: The Impact of Venezuelan Currency Devaluations on Multinational Stock Prices","authors":"Dany Bahar, Carlos A. Molina, M. Santos","doi":"10.1353/ECO.2018.0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/ECO.2018.0009","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper documents negative cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) to five exchange rate devaluations in Venezuela within the context of stiff exchange controls and large black-market premiums, using daily stock prices for 110 multinational corporations with Venezuelan subsidiaries. The results suggest evidence of statistically and economically significant negative CARs of up to 2.07 percent over the ten-day event window. We find consistent results using synthetic controls to causally infer the effect of each devaluation on the stock prices of global firms active in the country at the time of the event. Our results are at odds with the predictions of the efficient market hypothesis stating that predictable devaluations should not affect the stock prices of large multinational companies on the day of the event, and even less so when they happen in small countries. We interpret these results as a suggestive indication of market inefficiencies in the process of asset pricing.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":"65 1","pages":"128 - 93"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73834127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:Exchanging one's vote for particularistic benefits—practices usually grouped under clientelism—is often thought to weaken programmatic links between citizens and politicians and disincentivize public good provision, as well as undermine voter autonomy and the ideal role of elections. However, empirically analyzing this key phenomenon for the working of democracies entails formidable challenges. We conduct list experiments on a large sample of households to estimate the incidence of clientelistic vote buying, as well as the extent to which respondents refrain from openly recognizing this behavior. Nearly one out of every five respondents engage in clientelism, and, surprisingly, they do not feel ashamed to admit it. Guided by the existing literature and systematically verifying the sensitivity of the results to model specification, we examine the robust correlates of clientelism and discuss the implications of our key findings.
{"title":"I Sell My Vote, and So What? Incidence, Social Bias, and Correlates of Clientelism in Colombia","authors":"L. Fergusson, Carlos A. Molina, J. Riaño","doi":"10.1353/ECO.2018.0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/ECO.2018.0011","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:Exchanging one's vote for particularistic benefits—practices usually grouped under clientelism—is often thought to weaken programmatic links between citizens and politicians and disincentivize public good provision, as well as undermine voter autonomy and the ideal role of elections. However, empirically analyzing this key phenomenon for the working of democracies entails formidable challenges. We conduct list experiments on a large sample of households to estimate the incidence of clientelistic vote buying, as well as the extent to which respondents refrain from openly recognizing this behavior. Nearly one out of every five respondents engage in clientelism, and, surprisingly, they do not feel ashamed to admit it. Guided by the existing literature and systematically verifying the sensitivity of the results to model specification, we examine the robust correlates of clientelism and discuss the implications of our key findings.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":"15 1","pages":"181 - 218"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82890898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Francisco J M Costa, João S. De Faria, Felipe S. Iachan, Bárbara Caballero
ABSTRACT:We employ a density discontinuity design to evaluate the deterrence effect of more severe punishments around the legal age of criminal responsibility in Brazil. Motivated by the criminology literature, we propose a novel proxy based on the inherent risk underlying criminal activities. Using violent death rates as a proxy for an individual's involvement in violent crime, we find no discernible deterrence effects. We additionally study arrest data from the country's third most populous state, Rio de Janeiro, and discuss the advantages of our proxy in light of potential underreporting biases from using criminal records.
{"title":"Homicides and the Age of Criminal Responsibility: A Density Discontinuity Approach","authors":"Francisco J M Costa, João S. De Faria, Felipe S. Iachan, Bárbara Caballero","doi":"10.1353/ECO.2018.0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/ECO.2018.0008","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:We employ a density discontinuity design to evaluate the deterrence effect of more severe punishments around the legal age of criminal responsibility in Brazil. Motivated by the criminology literature, we propose a novel proxy based on the inherent risk underlying criminal activities. Using violent death rates as a proxy for an individual's involvement in violent crime, we find no discernible deterrence effects. We additionally study arrest data from the country's third most populous state, Rio de Janeiro, and discuss the advantages of our proxy in light of potential underreporting biases from using criminal records.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":"89 1","pages":"59 - 92"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79693984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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