A techno-commercial assessment of the possible sources of petrochemicals and energy for land and air transport in the furutre, based on currently known chemistry, suggests that synthetic gasoline produced from cheap coal in very large multi-fuel producing plants will become the commodity source of petrochemicals when natural liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon sources run short.
Following the price increase of petroleum feedstocks in 1973, increasing attention was given to the possibility of producing basic chemicals such as alcohols by fermentation processes. In this paper, the feasibility of using fermentation processes for the production of ethanol from starches and sugars is examined and compared with petrochemical routes from naphtha.
A series of parametric models is presented for estimating total corporate overhead and major categories of overhead cost for weapon system contracts. The models relate overhead costs each year to direct costs and to prior year overhead and direct costs. All costs are normalized to constant fiscal year 1974 dollars.
While some anomalies were noted for individual cost elements of the data base, the regression trends across the ten firms examined appeared logically consistent and were all statistically significant.
Total overhead costs were found to be 62% variable with respect to direct labor dollars and 46% variable with respect to direct labor plus materials. The variability of individual cost categories ranged from 33% variable for Land and Buildings to 144% variable for Employment (personnel hiring and transfer). A key finding of the analysis was that no category of overhead could be classified as a fixed cost. All vary to some extent with the level of direct costs.
Example applications of the total overhead cost model are included.
Should industry be allowed to build a plant where a major disaster of the Flixborough type is possible? On the other hand should a company sacrifice the business opportunity whereby jobs are created, our quality of life is enhanced by a useful product, wealth is generated upon which the continuing growth and prosperity of the company depends and from which the money for social services and other forms of Government spending is derived? Phrases like “the risks have been minimised”, “as safe as is humanly possible” and “designed to best engineering standards” are often used to answer the first question in the affirmative.
This paper describes a method of assessing the risks which avoids the need to rely on such subjective and widely variable judgements. It shows with the aid of a hypothetical plant as an example, how risks can be assessed in quantitative terms and how the cost of both the incident and the protection against it can be balanced to give a practical and consistent interpretation to the phrase “as far as is reasonably practicable”. It also discusses some of the problems which this approach leads to.
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