Engineering and Process Economics最新文献

Due to the importance of the role played by extended credit in planning and executing major projects, international banks frequently employ engineers in their project finance departments, while engineering contractors often employ lawyers or economists to assist in contract negotiations. This paper is intended to introduce to engineers and technicians the basic concepts of finance for export contracts, and to summarise the ways in which such financing may influence engineering, planning and contractual decisions.

The various types of export credit are described, and the advantages of each system explained. Special reference is made to conditions regulating exports from the U.K. but the same principles apply to exports from other European and industrialised countries.

Certain projects involve guarantees, bonds and special insurance. In some cases, additional funds must be raised to supplement export finance and such instances are reviewed.

In recognition of the urgent need for local and national improvements in the use of resources and for increases in productivity, use has been made on the shop floor of a heavy steel forging factory of a simple aid to optimizing production scheduling.

The “Assignment Method” of solving an allocation problem, involving heating furnace capacity and various sizes of steel billets, has been implemented successfully by shop floor management who have been taught a simplified (sub-optimising) version of the basic Assignment Method.

Costs of heating operations on billets taken before and after implementation show a considerable improvement to have been obtained.

An historical perspective is presented with an emphasis on major uses for ethylene and past ethylene supply and demand balances and prices. Then an exponential model is developed that correlates annual U.S. ethylene production over more than three decades with a coefficient of determination of 0.99. Next, future U.S. ethylene supply and demand and prices are discussed within the context of a changing environment. Special consideration is given to the influence of future markets, energy needs, end products, and feedstocks. A review of fast ethylene production forecasts is presented, and our model is used to forecast ethylene production for the next decade. Finally, the changing international ethylene picture is analyzed with emphasis on Western Europe, Japan, and the Middle East.

To make a sensible decision on the optimum manufacturing capacity to be installed it is important to consider how demand may change with price, particularly for a new product. Using a simple cost and cash flow model, in which the pattern of demand in future time periods is specified by price, this article points out that, for any single future price, the only capacities which can be optimal are those which exactly meet the future demands at that price. Thus the search for optimal capacity and price is reduced to considering a finite and limited number of capacities, instead of a continuous range, for all possible prices. Although it is frequently optimal to install capacity equal to the ultimate potential demand at the optimum price, the article notes occasions when optimal capacity is lower than this and gives an example where the demand of only three time-periods hence should be partially foregone even at a zero discount rate, which penalises most the foregoing of future demand.

This paper centres on the theme of the art and science of capital cost estimation; whether and to what extent it is procrastinative or sophistic; its theoretical basis and whether this stands the test of practicality; whether, indeed it is possible or wise to be completely consistent.

In presenting a somewhat distorted view of some of these aspects of estimation, it is the author's hope that more serious questions may be raised in the minds of the audience.

A method is described for determining the optimum amount of design effort to employ on each project of a set of projects in engineering design office.

For each project, the design time for different levels of design and the expected savings from the more detailed levels must be provided. Also, estimates of the market losses due to delayed start-up, and the probability of the project being completed must be supplied.

A combinatorial program then selects the optimum level of design for each project. An example is given.

“Forward currency deals” - a creative and proven method for managing and containing the risks associated with projects involving payments and receipts in several currencies. The systems and disciplines involved in this interesting and vital speciality require great numeracy and forecasting skills from cost engineers, managers and planners.