Journal of Urban Mobility最新文献_第6页

Digital and socioeconomic inequalities in perceived mobility restrictions for activity participation: Captive users in Madrid 数字和社会经济不平等对活动参与的流动性限制：马德里的专属用户

IF 6.1 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Journal of Urban Mobility

Pub Date : 2025-08-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.urbmob.2025.100142

Segundo Paico-Saavedra , Alberto Rojas-Rivero , Raúl F. Elizondo-Candanedo , Aldo Arranz-López , Julio A. Soria-Lara

Although COVID-19′s impact on mobility has been widely studied—often highlighting the disproportionate burden on vulnerable groups—two aspects remain understudied: the need for a multidimensional approach to vulnerability, and the role of perceived rather than observed mobility restrictions in shaping access during crises. This study addresses this gap by investigating how structural vulnerabilities (e.g., transport mobility, digital access, and socioeconomic) shaped the ability to engage in work and educational activities during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Madrid Region. A survey of captive public transport users was conducted, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to identify key dimensions of vulnerability. These dimensions -related to socioeconomic status, digital access, household characteristics, and commuting conditions- were then included in an ordinal logistic regression to assess their influence on perceived mobility difficulty. The results reveal a complex and layered geography of vulnerability. Individuals with limited teleworking capacity, digital exclusion, and economic precarity were significantly more likely to report mobility restrictions, especially in suburban and peripheral areas with fewer transport alternatives. In contrast, those with greater digital access, financial resilience, or private mobility options reported fewer barriers. The findings emphasize that transport-related disadvantages cannot be understood without digital and social inequalities. Policy implications include the need to integrate digital accessibility into transport equity frameworks, improve service provision in structurally dependent areas, and recognize informal household-level mobility strategies as assets.

尽管人们对COVID-19对流动性的影响进行了广泛研究，往往强调弱势群体承受的不成比例的负担，但有两个方面仍未得到充分研究：对脆弱性采取多维方法的必要性，以及在危机期间，感知而非观察到的流动性限制在影响准入方面的作用。本研究通过调查2019冠状病毒病大流行期间马德里地区的结构性脆弱性（如交通机动性、数字接入和社会经济）如何影响参与工作和教育活动的能力，解决了这一差距。通过对受困公共交通用户的调查，采用主成分分析（PCA）确定脆弱性的关键维度。这些维度与社会经济地位、数字接入、家庭特征和通勤条件有关，然后被纳入有序逻辑回归，以评估它们对感知移动困难的影响。研究结果揭示了一个复杂的、分层的脆弱性地理。远程办公能力有限、数字排斥和经济不稳定的个人更有可能报告行动受限，特别是在交通选择较少的郊区和外围地区。相比之下，那些拥有更多数字接入、财务弹性或私人交通选择的人报告的障碍更少。研究结果强调，如果没有数字和社会不平等，就无法理解与交通有关的不利因素。政策影响包括需要将数字无障碍纳入交通公平框架，改善结构依赖地区的服务提供，并将非正式的家庭一级移动战略视为资产。

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引用次数: 0

Driver compliance with the 2022 UK highway code rule on giving way to pedestrians at side roads: A naturalistic observation study 司机遵守2022年英国公路法规规定，在旁道给行人让路：一项自然观察研究

IF 6.1 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Journal of Urban Mobility

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.urbmob.2025.100140

Sarah E. O’Toole , Nicola Christie , Damian Poulter

The 2022 update to the UK Highway Code introduced a new H2 rule granting pedestrians right of way at side road junctions. However, the communication campaign for this change was limited and there has yet to be a systematic evaluation of driver compliance. This study therefore involved a naturalistic observation of driver yielding behaviour when turning from a main road into a side road. A total of 809 driver-pedestrian interactions were observed to assess compliance with the rule, alongside driver, vehicle, pedestrian, and environmental characteristics. Results indicated that only 31 % of drivers complied with the rule when turning from a main road into a side road where pedestrians were approaching or waiting at a junction to cross. However, female drivers and taxi drivers were more likely to yield to pedestrians at junctions. Further, compliance was greater when there was a group of pedestrians opposed to a single pedestrian or when it was early afternoon. These findings suggest further interventions may be necessary to enhance adherence and improve pedestrian safety.

2022年更新的英国公路法规引入了新的H2规则，赋予行人在岔路口的通行权。然而，这一改变的宣传活动是有限的，而且还没有对司机的合规性进行系统的评估。因此，这项研究涉及到驾驶员从主路转入辅路时的屈服行为的自然观察。共观察了809例驾驶员与行人的互动，以评估驾驶员、车辆、行人和环境特征对规则的遵守情况。结果表明，只有31%的司机在从主路转向行人接近或在十字路口等待过马路时遵守规则。然而，女性司机和出租车司机更有可能在十字路口向行人让路。此外，当有一群行人反对一个行人时，或者是在下午早些时候，依从性更强。这些发现表明，进一步的干预措施可能是必要的，以提高依从性和改善行人安全。

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引用次数: 0

Fuel prices and commuting frequencies: Exploring revealed and anticipated changes among university students 燃料价格与通勤频率：探索大学生中已发现的和预期的变化

IF 2.7 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Journal of Urban Mobility

Pub Date : 2025-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.urbmob.2025.100139

Muhammad Abdullah , Nazam Ali , Muhammad Ashraf Javid , Muhammad Aamir Basheer

The recent surge in fuel prices has disrupted daily life globally, with transportation costs posing a significant barrier to educational access and student retention. Rising fuel expenses may lead to reduced commuting frequency among students, particularly affecting those from disadvantaged socio-economic backgrounds. This study investigates the effects of rising fuel prices on university students’ commuting frequency across three phases: a pre-hike phase (late 2021), a current hike phase (early 2023), and a projected future hike phase (beyond mid-2023). Data were collected via a questionnaire survey from four private universities in Lahore, Pakistan. Revealed (actual) commuting frequency changes, based on differences between the pre-hike and current hike phases, and stated (anticipated) commuting frequency changes, based on stated intentions for the future hike phase, were analyzed. Trip frequency differences within and across fuel price phases were examined using bivariate hypothesis testing, while multinomial logistic regression was employed to identify significant predictors of across-phase trip frequency changes, controlling for the influence of socio-economic and demographic variables. Hypothesis testing showed significant differences in commuting behavior across phases, with a stronger intention to reduce trips during the future hike phase. Female students and private vehicle owners reported a significantly higher intention to reduce trips under the future fuel price scenario, and low-income students were also disproportionately affected. Multinomial logistic regression revealed that gender and commuting distance were significantly associated with anticipated changes. Female students were significantly less likely than males to indicate an intention to increase trips (relative to no change), suggesting that male students were more likely to expect increased commuting under the future hike scenario. Additionally, students commuting 5–10 km were nearly three times more likely than those commuting over 10 km to anticipate reducing their trips. These findings highlight unequal impacts of fuel price increases on student mobility and support the need for targeted transportation policies to ensure equitable access to higher education.

最近燃料价格的飙升扰乱了全球的日常生活，交通成本对教育机会和学生留校造成了重大障碍。燃油费用的上涨可能会导致学生通勤频率的减少，尤其是那些社会经济背景较差的学生。本研究调查了燃料价格上涨对大学生通勤频率的影响，分为三个阶段：加息前阶段（2021年底）、当前加息阶段（2023年初）和预计的未来加息阶段（2023年中期以后）。数据通过问卷调查从巴基斯坦拉合尔的四所私立大学收集。研究分析了基于徒步旅行前和当前阶段差异的显示（实际）通勤频率变化，以及基于对未来徒步旅行阶段的既定意图的声明（预期）通勤频率变化。使用双变量假设检验检验了燃油价格阶段内和不同阶段的出行频率差异，而使用多项逻辑回归来确定跨阶段出行频率变化的重要预测因素，控制社会经济和人口变量的影响。假设检验表明，不同阶段的通勤行为存在显著差异，在未来的徒步旅行阶段，减少出行的意愿更强。在未来燃油价格的情况下，女学生和私家车车主减少出行的意愿明显更高，低收入学生也受到不成比例的影响。多元逻辑回归结果显示，性别和通勤距离与预期变化显著相关。与男生相比，女生表示愿意增加出行次数的可能性要小得多（相对于没有变化），这表明男生更有可能预计在未来的徒步旅行情景下，通勤次数会增加。此外，通勤距离5-10公里的学生预计减少出行的可能性是通勤距离超过10公里的学生的近三倍。这些发现强调了燃油价格上涨对学生流动性的不平等影响，并支持有针对性的交通政策的必要性，以确保公平获得高等教育。

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引用次数: 0

Transport and mobility governance: Uncovering barriers to walking infrastructure decision-making processes in urban areas in Kenya and Malawi 交通和流动性治理：揭示肯尼亚和马拉维城市地区步行基础设施决策过程中的障碍

IF 2.7 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Journal of Urban Mobility

Pub Date : 2025-07-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.urbmob.2025.100138

Gladys Nyachieo , Theodora Ndipo Charlotte Thindwa , Anthony Bert Tasosa , Paschalin Basil , Yvonne Moseti , Joel Jere

This study examined the barriers to implementing walking infrastructure in Kisii Town, Kenya, and Mzuzu City, Malawi. The inter-country research was motivated by evidence of high pedestrian fatalities in these two cities, among other mobility challenges. It focused on smaller, rapidly growing urban centres where early interventions could drive meaningful improvements in overall urban governance, thereby enhancing transport planning and financing. Additionally, the study aimed to address the scarcity of literature on this subject, which remains limited in Africa, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where little research has been conducted on decision-making and the implementation of walking infrastructure in urban areas. The findings reveal that decision-making for walking infrastructure faces numerous challenges. The study recommends taking deliberate steps to improve walking infrastructure, as walking remains the preferred mode of transport for the majority of urban residents in sub-Saharan Africa due to prevailing economic conditions.

本研究调查了肯尼亚Kisii镇和马拉维Mzuzu市实施步行基础设施的障碍。有证据表明，这两个城市的行人死亡率很高，以及其他交通挑战，促使了这项跨国研究。它侧重于规模较小、发展迅速的城市中心，在这些中心，早期干预可以推动整体城市治理的有意义改善，从而加强交通规划和融资。此外，该研究旨在解决关于这一主题的文献匮乏的问题，这在非洲仍然有限，特别是在撒哈拉以南非洲，在城市地区对决策和步行基础设施的实施进行的研究很少。研究结果表明，步行基础设施的决策面临许多挑战。该研究建议采取深思熟虑的措施来改善步行基础设施，因为由于当前的经济条件，步行仍然是撒哈拉以南非洲大多数城市居民首选的交通方式。

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引用次数: 0

Delineating potential DRT operating areas: An origin–destination clustering approach 划定潜在的DRT操作区域：一种始发目的地聚类方法

IF 2.7 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Journal of Urban Mobility

Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.urbmob.2025.100135

Hussein Mahfouz , Malcolm Morgan , Eva Heinen , Robin Lovelace

Investment in Demand-Responsive Transport (DRT) has emerged as a sustainable transport intervention option for areas that are traditionally hard to serve by high frequency public transport. When used as a first- and last-mile feeder, DRT has the potential to reduce car dependency and enhance access to the wider network. However, many DRT schemes fail—often due to overly flexible, poorly targeted service areas that do not align with actual travel patterns, making efficient pooling difficult. While planners may already have a general sense of where DRT might be useful, there is limited guidance on how to identify precise operating zones based on spatiotemporal demand. This paper presents a method for identifying potential DRT service areas using spatial clustering of origin–destination (OD) flows. We apply the method in Leeds, UK, focusing on OD pairs with poor public transport supply and low potential demand. The approach identifies spatial clusters where demand is both underserved and sufficiently concentrated to support DRT operation. By narrowing service areas to zones where pooling is more likely and where DRT complements rather than competes with fixed-route services, the method helps address two key challenges in DRT planning. The results offer a reproducible, data-driven input for delineating preliminary DRT service areas—supporting strategic planning, integration with downstream agent-based models, and further refinement through local knowledge. The method provides a foundation for future work on designing DRT services that complement the public transport network, particularly in low-density urban peripheries.

对需求响应型交通（DRT）的投资已成为传统上难以通过高频公共交通服务的地区的可持续交通干预选择。当用作第一英里和最后一英里的馈线时，DRT有可能减少对汽车的依赖，并增加对更广泛网络的接入。然而，许多DRT计划失败了——通常是由于过于灵活，服务区域定位不佳，与实际的出行模式不一致，使得有效的汇集变得困难。虽然规划者可能已经大致了解DRT在哪些地方可能有用，但关于如何根据时空需求确定精确的作业区域的指导有限。本文提出了一种利用OD流空间聚类识别潜在DRT服务区的方法。我们将该方法应用于英国利兹，重点关注公共交通供应差、潜在需求低的OD对。该方法确定了需求既得不到充分满足又足够集中以支持DRT运作的空间集群。通过将服务区域缩小到更有可能汇集服务的区域，以及DRT与固定路线服务互补而不是竞争的区域，该方法有助于解决DRT规划中的两个关键挑战。研究结果为划定初步DRT服务区域提供了可重复的数据驱动输入，支持战略规划，与下游基于代理的模型集成，并通过本地知识进一步改进。该方法为未来设计DRT服务的工作提供了基础，以补充公共交通网络，特别是在低密度城市边缘地区。

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引用次数: 0

Media influence, trust, and perceived risks in passengers’ intentions to discontinue the ride-hailing services in Lahore, Pakistan 在巴基斯坦拉合尔，媒体影响、信任和乘客停止网约车服务的意图的感知风险

IF 2.7 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Journal of Urban Mobility

Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.urbmob.2025.100137

M. Aamir Basheer , Aqsa Mehmood , Farrukh Baig , Muhammad Abdullah

The popularity of ride-hailing services has gained momentum in recent years in developing countries due to the lack of proper public transport infrastructure to meet travel demand. However, security and safety issues may influence customers’ willingness to use ride-hailing services. To understand passengers’ intentions to discontinue the use of ride-hailing services, this study developed twelve hypotheses. Using partial least square structural equation modeling, the hypotheses of this study were tested using data collected from Lahore, Pakistan, through a questionnaire survey. Results highlight the factors contributing to discontinuing ride-hailing services, including trust, attitude, psychological risks, functional and financial risks, media influence, and shared prosperity. According to the results, psychological and perceived financial and functional risks significantly positively affect intention to discontinue ride-hailing services, while trust negatively affects users intending to discontinue services. Besides, media influence also positively affected the intention to discontinue the usage of ride-hailing services. The findings of the study indicate the need for new marketing strategies to tackle negative views in the media about ride-hailing services. The study also highlighted the need to develop passengers’ trust in ride-hailing platforms and the drivers to discourage the shift from using ride-hailing services. The study provides valuable insights for service providers and policymakers to encourage the usage of ride-hailing services.

近年来，由于缺乏适当的公共交通基础设施来满足出行需求，网约车服务在发展中国家的普及势头强劲。然而，安保和安全问题可能会影响客户使用网约车服务的意愿。为了了解乘客停止使用网约车服务的意图，本研究提出了12个假设。利用偏最小二乘结构方程模型，通过问卷调查收集了巴基斯坦拉合尔的数据，对本研究的假设进行了检验。研究结果强调了导致网约车服务中断的因素，包括信任、态度、心理风险、功能和财务风险、媒体影响和共享繁荣。根据研究结果，心理风险和感知到的财务和功能风险显著地积极影响了用户停止网约车服务的意愿，而信任则对用户打算停止服务产生负面影响。此外，媒体的影响也对网约车的停止使用意向产生了积极的影响。研究结果表明，需要新的营销策略来解决媒体对网约车服务的负面看法。该研究还强调，有必要培养乘客对网约车平台的信任，并鼓励司机放弃使用网约车服务。该研究为服务提供商和政策制定者提供了鼓励使用网约车服务的宝贵见解。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding user satisfaction with university parking: A grounded theory approach 理解大学停车的用户满意度：基于理论的方法

IF 2.7 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Journal of Urban Mobility

Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.urbmob.2025.100136

Sai Sneha Channamallu , Apurva Pamidimukkala , Sharareh Kermanshachi , Jay Michael Rosenberger , Greg Hladik

Urban growth has intensified parking issues in densely populated settings like university campuses, where demand for parking is high. Existing research on parking management often overlooks the unique challenges of urban universities, especially in adopting suitable technologies and strategies. This study explores parking challenges specific to an urban university campus, offering insights that may inform strategies at similar institutions while recognizing the contextual nature of the findings. Structured interviews with 19 participants, each lasting about 25 min, were analyzed using grounded theory and MAXQDA software through a three-stage coding process. Open coding identified three main themes: parking experience, perception of the parking system, and potential solutions. Axial coding then connected these themes to reveal relationships and patterns, which selective coding refined into a coherent theoretical framework. The study found that personal cars are the preferred mode of transportation due to their convenience, highlighting the need for adequate campus parking. Challenges such as limited space availability, long search times, cost-value disparities, and increasing interest in innovative solutions indicate the necessity for a more efficient, tech-driven, and adaptable parking system. Recommendations include flexible pricing and advanced technologies to address immediate issues. Strategic parking placement and promoting alternative transport are proposed as long-term improvements to reduce demand and enhance campus parking experiences. This study provides valuable insights into transportation issues on university campuses and offers a foundation for developing effective, sustainable parking strategies.

城市发展加剧了大学校园等人口密集地区的停车问题，这些地区对停车的需求很高。现有的停车管理研究往往忽视了城市高校停车管理面临的独特挑战，特别是在采用合适的技术和策略方面。本研究探讨了城市大学校园特有的停车挑战，在认识到研究结果的背景性质的同时，为类似机构的策略提供了见解。对19名参与者进行结构化访谈，每次访谈持续约25分钟，通过三个阶段的编码过程，使用扎根理论和MAXQDA软件进行分析。开放式编码确定了三个主要主题：停车体验、对停车系统的感知和潜在的解决方案。轴向编码然后将这些主题连接起来，揭示关系和模式，选择性编码将其提炼成一个连贯的理论框架。该研究发现，私家车因其方便而成为首选的交通方式，这凸显了对充足校园停车位的需求。有限的可用空间、漫长的搜索时间、成本价值差异以及对创新解决方案日益增长的兴趣等挑战表明，需要一个更高效、技术驱动和适应性更强的停车系统。建议包括灵活的定价和先进的技术来解决眼前的问题。策略性泊车位置和推广替代交通工具是减少需求和提高校园停车体验的长期改进措施。这项研究为大学校园交通问题提供了有价值的见解，并为制定有效、可持续的停车策略提供了基础。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring the future of Mobility as a Service (MaaS): A co-design approach to scenario planning in European cities 探索移动即服务（MaaS）的未来：欧洲城市场景规划的协同设计方法

IF 2.7 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Journal of Urban Mobility

Pub Date : 2025-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.urbmob.2025.100133

Valeria Caiati , Soora Rasouli , Helber López

This article contributes to the discourse on Mobility as a Service (MaaS) by presenting four plausible scenarios for its development in Europe up to 2030. Unlike previous scenario studies, which often relied on desk research or focused on narrow contexts, this study employs a co-design methodology that involved interdisciplinary experts from both public and private sectors across Europe. Their perspectives are integrated throughout the process, from identifying key uncertainties to building the scenario narratives. This approach supports a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities shaping MaaS futures. The four resulting scenarios (i.e. Mobility Walled Garden, Open Data Power in Standby, Everyone on Their Own, and Open Ecosystem) reflect how different configurations of market competition and API openness shape the trajectory of MaaS. While open standards and interoperability emerge as key enablers, their impact depends on the presence of supportive governance and institutional coordination. Imbalances, such as strong data frameworks without market diversity, or open competition with fragmented and poorly coordinated services, can weaken long-term system resilience. The scenario framework offers a structured lens for anticipating these tensions and guiding strategic decisions in MaaS development.

本文通过提出到2030年欧洲移动即服务（MaaS）发展的四种合理情景，为“移动即服务”（MaaS）的论述做出了贡献。与以往的情景研究不同，这些研究通常依赖于案头研究或专注于狭窄的背景，这项研究采用了一种共同设计方法，涉及来自欧洲公共和私营部门的跨学科专家。他们的观点贯穿整个过程，从确定关键的不确定性到构建场景叙述。这种方法有助于全面理解影响MaaS未来的挑战和机遇。由此产生的四种场景（即移动围墙花园、开放数据力量待机、每个人都自己做、开放生态系统）反映了不同的市场竞争配置和API开放如何塑造MaaS的发展轨迹。虽然开放标准和互操作性作为关键的推动因素出现，但它们的影响取决于支持性治理和机构协调的存在。不平衡，如缺乏市场多样性的强大数据框架，或与分散和协调不良的服务进行公开竞争，可能会削弱系统的长期弹性。场景框架为在MaaS开发中预测这些紧张关系和指导战略决策提供了一个结构化的视角。

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引用次数: 0

Reshaping transit-oriented development to enhance sociocultural harmonization in the context of Qatar 在卡塔尔的背景下，重塑以交通为导向的发展，以加强社会文化的和谐

IF 2.7 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Journal of Urban Mobility

Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.urbmob.2025.100132

Sara Nafi, Djamel Ouahrani

The widespread adoption of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) often presents a one-size-fits-all approach that utilizes Western planning concepts, which questions its compatibility for diverse sociocultural and climatic contexts. While Peter Calthorpe formally introduced the TOD model in the early 1990s, many of its core principles have long existed in what is known as the "Traditional City Model." Though, the relationship between these two approaches has not been investigated. This study examines the adaptability of TOD principles in Doha, the capital city of Qatar, a rapidly urbanized city suffering from significant challenges, such as heavy car dependence, limited pedestrian access, and lack of public transportation and land use integration. In addition to the "last mile" issue, it is showing difficulties for residents to reach their final destinations from transit hubs. The paper utilized both qualitative and quantitative methods including: (I) comparative analysis of traditional city and TOD model elements, (II) neighborhood perceptions and travel preferences survey, and (II) spatial analysis of TOD potential. Data were gathered from the Qatar Ministry of Transport (MOT), the Qatar Ministry of Municipality (MME), and Qatar Rail. Finaly, this paper proposed an area specific TOD policy that suits the Qatari context and consider the climatic resilience.

交通导向发展（TOD）的广泛采用往往呈现出一种“一刀切”的方法，这种方法利用了西方的规划概念，质疑其对不同社会文化和气候背景的兼容性。当彼得·卡尔索普在20世纪90年代初正式引入TOD模型时，它的许多核心原则早已存在于所谓的“传统城市模型”中。然而，这两种方法之间的关系尚未被调查。本研究考察了TOD原则在卡塔尔首都多哈的适应性。多哈是一个快速城市化的城市，面临着严重依赖汽车、行人通道有限、缺乏公共交通和土地利用整合等重大挑战。除了“最后一英里”的问题，它还显示出居民从交通枢纽到达最终目的地的困难。本文采用定性与定量相结合的方法，包括：(1)传统城市与TOD模型要素对比分析；(2)邻里感知与出行偏好调查；(2)TOD潜力空间分析。数据收集自卡塔尔交通部（MOT）、卡塔尔市政府（MME）和卡塔尔铁路。最后，本文提出了适合卡塔尔国情并考虑气候适应能力的特定地区TOD政策。

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引用次数: 0

The Hierarchy of Cycling Needs: Modeling the self-assessed propensity to bicycle 自行车需求层次：自行评估的自行车倾向建模

IF 2.7 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Journal of Urban Mobility

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.urbmob.2025.100130

Rosa Félix , Filipe Moura , Kelly J. Clifton

As car dependent cities desire a transition to more sustainable and healthful transportation systems, they need guidance on how to support the adoption of cycling. In this research we measure and model the key factors that lead to a progressive behavioral change towards cycling, using Lisbon as the case study. Based on stated responses from a survey (n = 1079), sub-groups of potential cyclists were identified based on sociodemographic information, cycling experience, and their self-assessed willingness to adopt bicycling. Three binary logit models were calibrated to model the probability to shift between behavior-change stages: from “Pessimist” to “Optimist”, then to “Enthusiast”, and, finally, to “Cyclist”. Results suggest that cycling infrastructure and equipment have a greater effect during the earlier stages of change, while facilities and practical needs have more impact during the middle stages. Finally, the individual’s social network and personal concerns and attitudes are crucial for the final push towards changing behavior and taking-up cycling. Based upon these results, a Pyramid of Cycling Needs is proposed, summarizing the hierarchy of needs to cycling. This framework informs which interventions and policies can have the greatest impact at each different stage of the transition to bicycling, and thus, raise cycling levels if those needs are made redundant. This research is a contribution towards understanding of how a city may transition to a higher cycling maturity level, by adopting an approach of targeted policies to different population groups who are willing to bicycle but have different needs.

由于依赖汽车的城市希望过渡到更可持续、更健康的交通系统，他们需要指导如何支持自行车的采用。在本研究中，我们以里斯本为例，测量并模拟了导致自行车行为逐渐改变的关键因素。根据一项调查（n = 1079）的回答，根据社会人口统计信息、骑车经历和他们自我评估的骑车意愿，确定了潜在骑车者的子群体。三个二元logit模型被校准来模拟在行为改变阶段之间转换的概率：从“悲观主义者”到“乐观主义者”，然后到“狂热者”，最后到“自行车手”。结果表明，骑行基础设施和设备在前期的影响更大，而设施和实际需求在中期的影响更大。最后，个人的社会网络和个人关注和态度对于最终推动改变行为和开始骑自行车至关重要。在此基础上，提出了骑行需求金字塔，总结了骑行需求的层次结构。该框架告知哪些干预措施和政策可以在向骑自行车过渡的每个不同阶段产生最大影响，从而在这些需求变得多余时提高骑自行车水平。本研究通过对愿意骑自行车但有不同需求的不同人群采取有针对性的政策方法，有助于理解城市如何过渡到更高的自行车成熟度水平。

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引用次数: 0