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Exploring the effects of space weather-caused satellite navigation failure on fuel consumption and aircraft emissions: A simulated study 探索空间天气引起的卫星导航故障对燃料消耗和飞机排放的影响:一项模拟研究
Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.team.2025.10.001
Dabin Xue , Yifan Xu , Shiwei Yu , Zhizhao Liu
Satellite navigation provides aircraft with precise positioning and navigation services. However, space weather can induce ionospheric irregularities and elevate the total electron content in the ionosphere, causing satellite navigation failure. Consequently, aircraft will navigate using ground aids and be disabled to fly along Great Circle Routes, increasing flight distance, fuel consumption, and aircraft emissions. To explore the effects of satellite navigation failure on flight operation, this study simulates satellite navigation failure scenarios and proposes Air Traffic Management (ATM) solutions. Specifically, the first step designs the ground aid-based shortest path using the Dijkstra algorithm, followed by the calculations of fuel consumption and aircraft emissions using the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) and the aircraft Engine Emissions Databank (EEDB), respectively. Based on the collected 11,037 U.S. flight plans on 5 February 2024 (UTC), simulations show that a single-day satellite navigation failure can result in an increase of flight distances by 2,371,777 km, fuel consumption of 7176 tons, and CO2 emission of 22,604 tons. While this study focuses on simulations in the U.S., the findings have a broad implication and can serve as a framework to address space weather effects on aviation in other regions of the world.
卫星导航为飞机提供精确的定位和导航服务。然而,空间天气会引起电离层的不规则性,提高电离层中的总电子含量,导致卫星导航失败。因此,飞机将使用地面辅助设备导航,无法沿大环航线飞行,从而增加飞行距离、燃料消耗和飞机排放。为了探讨卫星导航故障对飞行运行的影响,本研究模拟了卫星导航故障场景,并提出了空中交通管理(ATM)解决方案。具体来说,第一步使用Dijkstra算法设计基于地面援助的最短路径,然后分别使用飞机数据库(BADA)和飞机发动机排放数据库(EEDB)计算燃油消耗和飞机排放。根据收集到的11037张 U.S.根据2024年2月5日(UTC)的飞行计划,模拟显示,一天的卫星导航故障可能导致飞行距离增加2,371,777 公里,燃料消耗7176吨,二氧化碳排放22,604吨。虽然这项研究主要集中在美国的模拟,但研究结果具有广泛的含义,可以作为解决世界其他地区太空天气对航空影响的框架。
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引用次数: 0
A hybrid cost model for light and heavy metro services 轻型和重型地铁服务的混合成本模型
Pub Date : 2025-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.team.2025.09.004
Alessandro Avenali , Daniele De Santis , Tiziana D’Alfonso , Mirko Giagnorio , Giorgio Matteucci
We develop a hybrid cost model to estimate the standard cost of light metro (LM) and heavy metro (HM) services, incorporating key technological factors such as degree of automation, wheel technology, and peak hourly capacity. The analysis draws on economic and transport data covering the entire universe of metro revenue kilometers operated in Italian cities in 2017. Our results show that cost structures vary substantially with the underlying technology. HM services are more capital-intensive due to higher train depreciation and associated capital costs compared to LM services. As a result, while HM services exhibit higher costs per kilometer, they are more cost-efficient on a per seat-km basis due to greater capacity. This implies that significant investments in high-capacity metro systems are economically justified only when demand levels are sufficiently high. A sensitivity analysis shows that standard unit costs decrease with improvements in train and driver productivity, and that gains in infrastructure maintenance efficiency have a stronger impact than those in train maintenance. Also scale economies play a role, as unit costs decline with increasing service size. Additionally, extending station opening hours results in higher costs that local authorities may choose to bear to enhance service quality. These findings can inform the definition of maximum economic compensation (i.e., the auction base) in competitive tendering procedures, or serve as a benchmark in negotiations with local monopolistic operators.
我们开发了一个混合成本模型来估算轻型地铁(LM)和重型地铁(HM)服务的标准成本,并将自动化程度、车轮技术和高峰小时容量等关键技术因素纳入其中。该分析利用了2017年意大利城市运营的地铁收入公里数的经济和交通数据。我们的研究结果表明,成本结构因底层技术的不同而有很大差异。与LM服务相比,HM服务由于更高的列车折旧和相关的资本成本而更具资本密集型。因此,虽然HM服务的每公里成本更高,但由于容量更大,它们在每座位公里的基础上更具成本效益。这意味着,只有当需求水平足够高时,对高容量地铁系统的重大投资在经济上是合理的。灵敏度分析表明,标准单位成本随着列车和驾驶员生产率的提高而降低,基础设施维护效率的提高比列车维护效率的提高有更大的影响。规模经济也发挥了作用,因为单位成本随着服务规模的增加而下降。此外,延长车站的开放时间会导致地方当局选择承担更高的成本,以提高服务质量。这些发现可以为竞争性招标程序中最大经济补偿(即拍卖基数)的定义提供信息,或作为与当地垄断经营者谈判的基准。
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引用次数: 0
Econometric modeling of route-level market share dynamics in Nigeria’s domestic airline sector 尼日利亚国内航空部门航线级市场份额动态的计量经济模型
Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.team.2025.09.003
Ejem A. Ejem , Chigozie O. Amaechi , Obiageli N. Nze , Timothy Shirgba Aikor , Precious N. Obieche , Blessing N. Ogbonnaya , Elizabeth L. Poi , Onyinyechi Chinenye Aghanwa
This study investigates the determinants of route-level market share dynamics in Nigeria’s domestic airline sector using quarterly panel data from 2005 to 2023. Employing cointegration and error correction models (ECM), supported by robustness checks with VAR and VECM, the analysis evaluates the long- and short-run impacts of fare levels, competition, flight frequency, and passenger volumes on airline market share. The results show that fare has limited explanatory power, while frequency, passenger demand, and competitive intensity are the primary drivers of market share. Short-run fluctuations are rapidly corrected, with approximately 60 % of deviations from equilibrium adjusted each period. These findings align with Nigeria's aviation history, where fare undercutting strategies contributed to the collapse of carriers such as Arik and Bellview. At the same time, service frequency and reliability underpinned the rise of dominant airlines like Air Peace and Ibom Air. Comparative evidence from India, Brazil, and Indonesia further confirms that in deregulated but infrastructure-constrained markets, frequency and network expansion consistently outweigh fare competition. The study contributes empirically by offering one of the few route-level econometric analyses of Africa's domestic airline markets, theoretically by situating frequency effects and demand theory, and practically by providing policy guidance. Findings include prioritizing operational reliability over fare wars, strengthening financial oversight to reduce unsustainable competition, and leveraging the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) to scale Nigerian carriers regionally. Overall, the results underscore that market share alone is insufficient for sustainability; profitability, efficiency, and strategic expansion must complement market presence to ensure the long-term viability of Nigerian airlines.
本研究利用2005年至2023年的季度面板数据,调查了尼日利亚国内航空业航线级市场份额动态的决定因素。采用协整和误差修正模型(ECM),通过VAR和VECM的稳健性检验,分析评估了票价水平、竞争、航班频率和客运量对航空公司市场份额的长期和短期影响。结果表明,票价对市场份额的解释能力有限,而班次、乘客需求和竞争强度是市场份额的主要驱动因素。短期波动得到迅速纠正,每个时期对偏离平衡的大约60% %进行调整。这些发现与尼日利亚航空业的历史相吻合,在尼日利亚,票价降低策略导致了Arik和Bellview等航空公司的倒闭。与此同时,服务频率和可靠性支撑了和平航空(Air Peace)和伊博姆航空(Ibom Air)等主导航空公司的崛起。来自印度、巴西和印度尼西亚的比较证据进一步证实,在放松管制但基础设施受限的市场,频率和网络扩张始终超过票价竞争。该研究提供了为数不多的航线层面的非洲国内航空市场计量经济分析,在理论上通过定位频率效应和需求理论,在实践上通过提供政策指导。调查结果包括优先考虑运营可靠性而不是票价战,加强财务监督以减少不可持续的竞争,以及利用非洲单一航空运输市场(SAATM)扩大尼日利亚航空公司的区域规模。总体而言,结果强调,仅靠市场份额不足以实现可持续性;盈利能力、效率和战略扩张必须与市场占有率相辅相成,以确保尼日利亚航空公司的长期生存能力。
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引用次数: 0
Meteorological impacts on aviation carbon emissions during takeoff and landing at 25 major global airports 气象对全球25个主要机场起降期间航空碳排放的影响
Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.team.2025.09.002
Xiaokang Liu , Chengze Mao , Shuai Yue , Qing Ji , Chunan Wang
Aviation plays a pivotal role in facilitating global economic integration, yet its associated greenhouse gas emissions and climate impacts have garnered increasing scrutiny. This study examined how meteorological conditions affect aircraft carbon emissions during the landing and takeoff (LTO) cycle, focusing on the world’s 25 busiest international airports in 2019. We integrated flight level emissions with high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data and estimated a fixed effects panel model to quantify the effects of temperature, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, cloud base height, low-level cloud cover, precipitation, and snow cover on emissions intensity. The results indicate that meteorological factors exert statistically significant and heterogeneous impacts across flight phases. Specifically, higher temperatures, lower atmospheric pressure, reduced cloud base height, and intense precipitation or snow cover are associated with increased per-flight carbon emissions, with particularly pronounced effects during taxiing operations. Sensitivity also varied across climate zones, airport infrastructure, and operating procedures, underscoring substantial spatial heterogeneity. These findings support the design of weather adaptive operating strategies and decarbonization pathways in aviation and provide a more nuanced understanding of weather driven variability in emissions.
航空业在促进全球经济一体化方面发挥着关键作用,但其相关的温室气体排放和气候影响已受到越来越多的关注。这项研究调查了气象条件如何影响飞机在起降(LTO)周期中的碳排放,重点研究了2019年全球25个最繁忙的国际机场。我们将飞行水平排放与高分辨率ERA5再分析数据结合起来,估算了一个固定效应面板模型,以量化温度、风速、大气压、云底高度、低层云量、降水和积雪对排放强度的影响。结果表明,气象因子对飞行阶段的影响具有统计学显著性和异质性。具体而言,温度升高、气压降低、云底高度降低、强降水或积雪与每次飞行的碳排放量增加有关,在滑行操作期间的影响尤为明显。敏感性也因气候区、机场基础设施和操作程序而异,强调了巨大的空间异质性。这些发现支持了天气适应性操作策略和航空脱碳途径的设计,并提供了对天气驱动的排放变化的更细致的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Harnessing digital twin technology for enhanced aircraft turnaround efficiency 利用数字孪生技术提高飞机周转效率
Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.team.2025.09.001
Jing Lu , Tao Pang , Xuheng Lu , Jiaxin Ji , Changmin Jiang
The aircraft turnaround operation is a critical component of air transportation, traditionally carried out using manually coordinated devices. Consequently, the operational efficiency is often constrained by the volume of labor and individual capabilities. To address this, some airports are exploring the potential of automated turnaround operations, where flights are serviced by newly designed smart devices. This study proposes a unique method for predicting the efficiency of automated turnaround operations using a digital-twin model. First, we designed a sandbox-based apron to simulate the physical environment, as no automated apron currently exists. Next, we applied network planning technique to establish coordinated operation rules among the smart devices, creating an optimized procedure for aircraft automated turnaround operation. Our results indicate that, compared to the statistical efficiency of manual-device coordinated operations, the time required for an automated turnaround operation for a single flight can be reduced by approximately 24.53 %.
飞机返航操作是航空运输的一个关键组成部分,传统上使用人工协调设备进行。因此,操作效率经常受到劳动力数量和个人能力的限制。为了解决这个问题,一些机场正在探索自动化中转操作的潜力,在那里,航班由新设计的智能设备提供服务。本研究提出了一种独特的方法来预测使用数字孪生模型的自动化周转操作的效率。首先,我们设计了一个基于沙盒的停机坪来模拟物理环境,因为目前还没有自动停机坪。其次,应用网络规划技术,建立智能设备间的协调操作规则,构建飞机自动返航作业优化流程。我们的研究结果表明,与手动设备协调操作的统计效率相比,单个航班的自动周转操作所需的时间可以减少约24.53 %。
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引用次数: 0
The Service Network Fleet Transition Problem 服务网络机队过渡问题
Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.team.2025.07.003
Jonas Lehmann, Anne Gvozdjak, Matthias Winkenbach
The road freight sector is a large source of carbon emissions yet notoriously hard to decarbonize. Logistics service providers and fleet operators face increasing pressure to adopt and implement carbon emissions reduction targets over the next years and decades. However, they lack appropriate tools to design and evaluate fleet transition strategies amidst competing technology alternatives, and the complexity of spatial and temporal cost differentials, along with intermediate emissions reduction goals. To address this, we introduce the Service Network Fleet Transition Problem to guide and facilitate companies’ transitions towards low-carbon vehicle fleets and operations. We propose an efficient integer linear programming formulation to model and solve the problem, capturing critical real-world constraints such as fueling and charging infrastructure requirements and the geo-spatial characteristics of service networks. We demonstrate the applicability of our formulation to real-world fleet and network data of a large U.S. consumer packaged goods company and provide extensive analyses and managerial insights for varying cost parameters and decarbonization strategies.
公路货运行业是碳排放的一大来源,但众所周知,它很难脱碳。物流服务提供商和车队运营商面临着越来越大的压力,在未来几年和几十年内采用和实施碳减排目标。然而,他们缺乏适当的工具来设计和评估竞争技术替代方案中的车队转型战略,以及空间和时间成本差异的复杂性,以及中间减排目标。为了解决这个问题,我们引入了服务网络车队过渡问题,以指导和促进公司向低碳车队和运营过渡。我们提出了一个有效的整数线性规划公式来建模和解决问题,捕捉关键的现实世界约束,如加油和充电基础设施要求和服务网络的地理空间特征。我们证明了我们的公式适用于一家大型美国消费品公司的实际车队和网络数据,并为不同的成本参数和脱碳策略提供了广泛的分析和管理见解。
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引用次数: 0
On the packaging of infrastructure projects in a competitive bidding environment 竞投环境下基础设施项目的包装研究
Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.team.2025.07.004
Philippe Grégoire , Gabriel J. Power , Djerry C. Tandja-M.
Theory predicts that bundling should dominate unbundling in transportation infrastructure procurement contracts, yet in practice unbundling is common. We present a model with equilibria where unbundling is superior to bundling, with competitive bidding between many firms to obtain the different contracts, and two layers of private information: Firms have low or high building costs, and builders have private information on infrastructure quality. When this information cannot be inferred by other firms, good builders can outbid others during the operation auction and anticipate positive expected payoffs. Bidding for a bundled project, however, may erase the winner’s profit, yielding a worse outcome than under unbundling.
理论预测,在交通基础设施采购合同中,捆绑式采购应主导非捆绑式采购,但在实际操作中,非捆绑式采购较为普遍。我们提出了一个均衡模型,在这个均衡模型中,拆包优于捆绑,许多公司为了获得不同的合同而进行竞标,并且有两层私人信息:公司有低或高的建筑成本,建筑商有关于基础设施质量的私人信息。当其他公司无法推断出这些信息时,优秀的建筑商可以在运营拍卖中出价高于其他建筑商,并期望获得积极的预期收益。然而,竞标捆绑项目可能会抹去赢家的利润,产生比分拆更糟糕的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring airports’ ability to sustain the COVID-19 disruption in the Chinese domestic market: Considering the effect of low-cost carriers and high-speed rails 衡量机场在中国国内市场承受新冠肺炎中断的能力:考虑低成本航空公司和高铁的影响
Pub Date : 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.team.2025.07.002
Weicheng Wang , Xiangru Wu , Xiaowen Fu , Kun Wang
Air transportation continues to gain focus and grow rapidly to meet the demand for social development. Meanwhile, the risk of unpredictable disruptive events like the COVID-19 pandemic must be addressed to ensure stable air transportation. The Chinese domestic market was experiencing unique challenges during the pandemic, considering strict pandemic control measures, limited deregulation, and significant competition from high-speed rail (HSR). This study evaluates the determinants of Chinese airports' performance from 2020 to 2022 based on a weighted connectivity index and an interactive fixed effect (IFE) model. We highlight the critical role of low-cost carriers (LCCs) in mitigating the pandemic's impact, with LCC route entry demonstrating a more pronounced positive effect on airport performance than increased flight frequency. Contrary to conventional expectations, HSR availability did not significantly undermine airport performance, suggesting a more complex air-HSR relationship shaped by intermodal cooperation and regional travel behaviour. Geographical heterogeneity also played a significant role: while LCC entry was vital in the less-developed western regions, increased frequency of LCC flights contributed more to the stable and mature eastern markets. These findings underscore the importance of fostering LCC development and promoting air-HSR coordination. Overall, this study provides valuable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders to enhance the resilience of the aviation sector in the post-COVID-19 era.
航空运输继续受到关注,并迅速发展,以满足社会发展的需求。同时,必须应对COVID-19大流行等不可预测的破坏性事件的风险,以确保航空运输的稳定。中国国内市场在疫情期间面临着独特的挑战,包括严格的疫情控制措施、有限的放松管制以及来自高铁(HSR)的激烈竞争。本研究基于加权连通性指数和互动固定效应(IFE)模型,评估了2020 - 2022年中国机场绩效的决定因素。我们强调低成本航空公司在减轻疫情影响方面的关键作用,与增加航班频率相比,低成本航空公司开通航线对机场绩效的积极影响更为显著。与传统预期相反,高铁的可用性并没有显著影响机场绩效,这表明由多式联运合作和区域旅行行为形成的更复杂的空气-高铁关系。地域异质性也发挥了重要作用:虽然低成本航空进入西部欠发达地区至关重要,但低成本航空航班频率的增加对稳定和成熟的东部市场贡献更大。这些发现强调了促进低成本航空公司发展和促进空气-高铁协调的重要性。总体而言,本研究为政策制定者和行业利益攸关方提供了宝贵的见解,以增强航空业在后covid -19时代的韧性。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of privatizing Japanese expressway companies on maintenance and management efficiency 日本高速公路民营化对养护管理效率的影响
Pub Date : 2025-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.team.2025.07.001
Tsubasa Kaino, Kazuyoshi Hidaka
In 2005, Japan privatized its four public highway corporations, resulting in the establishment of three NEXCO companies. Although these entities remain fully government-owned, future stock exchange listing is envisioned. To inform discussions on this transition, it is essential to analyze the effects of privatization on management efficiency and identify factors influencing efficiency changes. While a certain degree of progress has been observed in achieving the three objectives articulated by the Japanese government at the time of privatization—namely, the steady repayment of interest-bearing debt, the early and inexpensive construction of expressways, and the provision of various services—these initial goals did not encompass maintenance and operation, which have become increasingly important over time. As a result, the impact of privatization on these aspects remains insufficiently examined. This study therefore focuses on existing expressway segments and investigates changes in maintenance and operational efficiency before and after privatization. Using data envelopment analysis (DEA), we evaluate efficiency based on indicators such as management costs and toll revenue, comparing performance in the pre-privatization period, immediately after privatization, and 14 years later. The results indicate that network-wide efficiency showed little change immediately after privatization. However, route-level analysis reveals a decline in efficiency over time. These findings suggest that privatization, even in the form of a joint stock company, may have limited capacity to enhance long-term management efficiency in expressway operations.
2005年,日本将4家公共公路公司民营化,成立了3家NEXCO公司。尽管这些实体仍然完全由政府所有,但未来有望在证券交易所上市。为了讨论这一转变,必须分析私有化对管理效率的影响,并确定影响效率变化的因素。虽然在实现私有化时日本政府明确提出的三个目标方面取得了一定程度的进展,即稳定偿还有息债务,早期和廉价的高速公路建设,以及提供各种服务,但这些最初的目标并不包括维护和运营,随着时间的推移,这一点变得越来越重要。因此,私有化对这些方面的影响仍然没有得到充分审查。因此,本研究的重点是现有的高速公路路段,并调查私有化前后维护和运营效率的变化。利用数据包络分析(DEA),我们基于管理成本和通行费收入等指标来评估效率,并比较了私有化前、私有化后和14年后的绩效。结果表明,私有化后,整个网络的效率变化不大。然而,路线级分析显示,效率随着时间的推移而下降。这些发现表明,私有化,即使以股份公司的形式,可能对提高高速公路运营的长期管理效率的能力有限。
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引用次数: 0
A critical literature review on layout designs and handling technology in traditional and automated container terminals 对传统和自动化集装箱码头布局设计和装卸技术的重要文献综述
Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.team.2025.06.002
Xiangda Li , Lingxiao Wu , Hao Lang , Zhongyi Jin , Ping He
Automated container terminals have gained considerable attention recently due to the advantages of lower emissions, higher efficiency, and lower labour cost. Compared to the high investment cost of building new automated container terminals, it is preferred to perform automation retrofit on traditional terminals. For the automation retrofit on terminals, it is critical to understand the layout and handling technology of both traditional and automated ones, and further the gap between each other. However, there is still a lack of a comprehensive review of the layout and handling technology for both traditional and automated container terminals in the current literature. To fill this gap, this paper firstly reviews the worldwide existing layout designs and handling technology for traditional and automated container terminals. Subsequently, a classification is proposed, based on which the retrofit patterns are able to be identified and shed light on the future container terminal automation process. Moreover, this paper also summarizes the performance evaluation methods for automated container terminals. Finally, the challenges and directions for further research are given.
自动化集装箱码头由于其低排放、高效率、低人工成本等优点,近年来受到了广泛的关注。相对于新建自动化集装箱码头的投资成本较高,对传统码头进行自动化改造更为可取。在码头自动化改造中,了解传统和自动化的布局和搬运技术,进一步了解两者之间的差距是至关重要的。然而,目前文献中仍缺乏对传统集装箱码头和自动化集装箱码头布局和装卸技术的全面综述。为了填补这一空白,本文首先回顾了世界上现有的传统集装箱码头和自动化集装箱码头的布局设计和装卸技术。随后,提出了一种分类,在此基础上,能够识别改造模式,并阐明未来集装箱码头自动化过程。此外,本文还总结了自动化集装箱码头的性能评价方法。最后,提出了今后研究的挑战和方向。
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引用次数: 0
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Transport Economics and Management
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