Pub Date : 2020-09-28DOI: 10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247674
I. Tregub, C. Margry
In this paper, we applied an econometric modeling technique as one of the investment analysis tools for predicting the value of cash flows when evaluating the effectiveness of investment in the tourism industry. We have shown, that the key role in management decisions making is identifying the factors that influence key industry variables. We proposed to use the flow of tourists and the average value of a check per tourist as the dependent variables. The results of the study were checked by French statistics.
{"title":"Econometric Methods in Solving Problems of the Analysis of Investments in the Field of Tourism on the Example of France","authors":"I. Tregub, C. Margry","doi":"10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247674","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247674","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we applied an econometric modeling technique as one of the investment analysis tools for predicting the value of cash flows when evaluating the effectiveness of investment in the tourism industry. We have shown, that the key role in management decisions making is identifying the factors that influence key industry variables. We proposed to use the flow of tourists and the average value of a check per tourist as the dependent variables. The results of the study were checked by French statistics.","PeriodicalId":103344,"journal":{"name":"2020 13th International Conference \"Management of large-scale system development\" (MLSD)","volume":"108 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122541295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-28DOI: 10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247713
S. Savushkin
The article describes a calculation model for the development of the transport complex in the diversified structure of the Russian economy. The model is a set of variables describing the numerical characteristics of the subject area and a set of dependencies that relate the values of variables. The model is designed to solve functional problems of the long and medium-term, such as: determining the size and structure of demand for transportation by a specific mode of transport; assessment of the influence of factors of a general economic nature (dollar exchange rate, price level for the main types of products, etc.), the economic situation in related sectors of the economy (production volumes, product prices, etc.) on the performance indicators of individual types of transport ; and also, an assessment of the impact of the state of a particular type of transport on the performance of sectors and on the economy as a whole; determining the prospects for the development of each type of transport based on forecasts of changes in the economic situation in the country, the dynamics of the development of related sectors of the economy and competing modes of transport. The solution to these problems is based on an analysis of scenario options for the development of transport for the future and an assessment of the possible consequences of the adoption of certain decisions. The model was used to predict the transport situation and plan the activities for a large transport company. The scenario is given by the values of the exogenous variables of the model. An approach to creating a scenario-based modeling system for a transport complex supporting hierarchical structures for the formation of computational problems, examples of their solution for various development scenarios is presented.
{"title":"Problems of Scenario Modeling of the Transport Complex","authors":"S. Savushkin","doi":"10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247713","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247713","url":null,"abstract":"The article describes a calculation model for the development of the transport complex in the diversified structure of the Russian economy. The model is a set of variables describing the numerical characteristics of the subject area and a set of dependencies that relate the values of variables. The model is designed to solve functional problems of the long and medium-term, such as: determining the size and structure of demand for transportation by a specific mode of transport; assessment of the influence of factors of a general economic nature (dollar exchange rate, price level for the main types of products, etc.), the economic situation in related sectors of the economy (production volumes, product prices, etc.) on the performance indicators of individual types of transport ; and also, an assessment of the impact of the state of a particular type of transport on the performance of sectors and on the economy as a whole; determining the prospects for the development of each type of transport based on forecasts of changes in the economic situation in the country, the dynamics of the development of related sectors of the economy and competing modes of transport. The solution to these problems is based on an analysis of scenario options for the development of transport for the future and an assessment of the possible consequences of the adoption of certain decisions. The model was used to predict the transport situation and plan the activities for a large transport company. The scenario is given by the values of the exogenous variables of the model. An approach to creating a scenario-based modeling system for a transport complex supporting hierarchical structures for the formation of computational problems, examples of their solution for various development scenarios is presented.","PeriodicalId":103344,"journal":{"name":"2020 13th International Conference \"Management of large-scale system development\" (MLSD)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125785567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-28DOI: 10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247778
I. Stepanovskaya
This article aims to study digital economy business systems ontology using socio-cyber-physical self-organization technologies based on new generation wireless networks 4G, 5G, and higher. The article proposes integrating value-added chains into multiplicative and reflexive structures with positive feedback. The purpose of this strategy is to form digital self-developing macroeconomics, built on a quasi-fractal principle "developing system of developing systems."
{"title":"Digital Economics Cyclic Development on Socio-cyber-physical Self-organization Platform","authors":"I. Stepanovskaya","doi":"10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247778","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247778","url":null,"abstract":"This article aims to study digital economy business systems ontology using socio-cyber-physical self-organization technologies based on new generation wireless networks 4G, 5G, and higher. The article proposes integrating value-added chains into multiplicative and reflexive structures with positive feedback. The purpose of this strategy is to form digital self-developing macroeconomics, built on a quasi-fractal principle \"developing system of developing systems.\"","PeriodicalId":103344,"journal":{"name":"2020 13th International Conference \"Management of large-scale system development\" (MLSD)","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127271747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-28DOI: 10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247646
V. Akinfiev
The article analyzes the problems of modeling and forecasting the world oil market, and also provides an overview of approaches and models in this area. The key factors affecting the formation of oil prices are presented, and their relationship is examined. The forecasting models of the world oil market based on the use of econometric analysis methods and structural VAR models are considered. Another area is the use of game and behavioral models. Widely used models of market equilibrium analysis taking into account various market structures based on MPEC models. Of considerable practical interest are also methods that combine game models, methods of multi-agent modeling, and modeling based on expert information. The analysis presented in the work shows that in many cases the use of mathematical models to predict the global oil market is useful, it allows you to get closer to understanding the mechanisms of its functioning and the relationship of its parameters.
{"title":"Global Oil Market Forecasting Models","authors":"V. Akinfiev","doi":"10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247646","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247646","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes the problems of modeling and forecasting the world oil market, and also provides an overview of approaches and models in this area. The key factors affecting the formation of oil prices are presented, and their relationship is examined. The forecasting models of the world oil market based on the use of econometric analysis methods and structural VAR models are considered. Another area is the use of game and behavioral models. Widely used models of market equilibrium analysis taking into account various market structures based on MPEC models. Of considerable practical interest are also methods that combine game models, methods of multi-agent modeling, and modeling based on expert information. The analysis presented in the work shows that in many cases the use of mathematical models to predict the global oil market is useful, it allows you to get closer to understanding the mechanisms of its functioning and the relationship of its parameters.","PeriodicalId":103344,"journal":{"name":"2020 13th International Conference \"Management of large-scale system development\" (MLSD)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125287358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-28DOI: 10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247704
V. Kulba, V. Medennikov
The paper discusses the problems of the effective implementation of digital technology in Russia's agriculture and how to solve the same by comprehensive and integrative methods. We present a mathematical model of Russia’s agricultural readiness for digital transformation. We consider the results of calculating several development scenarios of the sector digitalization.
{"title":"A Model of the Russia’s Agriculture Readiness for Digital Transformation","authors":"V. Kulba, V. Medennikov","doi":"10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247704","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247704","url":null,"abstract":"The paper discusses the problems of the effective implementation of digital technology in Russia's agriculture and how to solve the same by comprehensive and integrative methods. We present a mathematical model of Russia’s agricultural readiness for digital transformation. We consider the results of calculating several development scenarios of the sector digitalization.","PeriodicalId":103344,"journal":{"name":"2020 13th International Conference \"Management of large-scale system development\" (MLSD)","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130700324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-28DOI: 10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247753
Atlas Akhmetzyanov, A. Samokhin, Y. Yaroshenko
In the process of developing oil fields, wave periodic disturbances are used to increase the flow rate of wells and increase the final oil recovery of layers. In an inhomogeneous medium, in the presence of dissipation and / or dispersion, harmonic oscillations created in the wellbores transform into sawtooth waves with periodic shock fronts. Consideration and use of this circumstance will lead to an increase in the share of recoverable reserves of fields: created by a downward vibrator: external harmonic disturbances converted in a dissipative medium into sawtooth shock waves cause cavitation in a liquid medium, and secondary shock waves generated from collapsing bubbles overcome capillary forces that hold oil residues on the surfaces of voids and cracks. These effects lead to a noticeable decrease in the permeability of the reservoir and a significant increase in the final oil recovery of oil formations.
{"title":"Nonlinear Wave Control Actions To Increase Oil Recovery Of Natural Oil Deposits","authors":"Atlas Akhmetzyanov, A. Samokhin, Y. Yaroshenko","doi":"10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247753","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247753","url":null,"abstract":"In the process of developing oil fields, wave periodic disturbances are used to increase the flow rate of wells and increase the final oil recovery of layers. In an inhomogeneous medium, in the presence of dissipation and / or dispersion, harmonic oscillations created in the wellbores transform into sawtooth waves with periodic shock fronts. Consideration and use of this circumstance will lead to an increase in the share of recoverable reserves of fields: created by a downward vibrator: external harmonic disturbances converted in a dissipative medium into sawtooth shock waves cause cavitation in a liquid medium, and secondary shock waves generated from collapsing bubbles overcome capillary forces that hold oil residues on the surfaces of voids and cracks. These effects lead to a noticeable decrease in the permeability of the reservoir and a significant increase in the final oil recovery of oil formations.","PeriodicalId":103344,"journal":{"name":"2020 13th International Conference \"Management of large-scale system development\" (MLSD)","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117218553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-28DOI: 10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247716
A. Kushner, E. N. Kushner
This article proposes an approach to constructing exact solutions of a third-order nonlinear evolutionary differential equation based on the theory of finite-dimensional dynamics. This theory, in turn, is based on the theory of shuffling symmetries of ordinary differential equations and it is a natural extension of the theory of dynamical systems to evolutionary partial differential equations. theory of finite-dimensional dynamics makes it possible to find families of solutions of evolution equations, depending on a finite number of parameters, among all solutions of such equations.
{"title":"Dynamics and Exact Solutions of Third-order Nonlinear Evolutionary Differential Equations","authors":"A. Kushner, E. N. Kushner","doi":"10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247716","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247716","url":null,"abstract":"This article proposes an approach to constructing exact solutions of a third-order nonlinear evolutionary differential equation based on the theory of finite-dimensional dynamics. This theory, in turn, is based on the theory of shuffling symmetries of ordinary differential equations and it is a natural extension of the theory of dynamical systems to evolutionary partial differential equations. theory of finite-dimensional dynamics makes it possible to find families of solutions of evolution equations, depending on a finite number of parameters, among all solutions of such equations.","PeriodicalId":103344,"journal":{"name":"2020 13th International Conference \"Management of large-scale system development\" (MLSD)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124579478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-28DOI: 10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247826
V. Livchits, I. Mironova, T. Tischenko, M. Frolova, A. Shvetsov
The article proposes an unconventional model for assessing the public efficiency of a large-scale infrastructure project, which is inherent in the current stage of development of the Russian economy and is aimed at maximizing investor capital growth at the end of the billing period, taking into account the scenarios for the effective use (reinvestment) of capital generated from the profit received from the project, and lost profits.
{"title":"Special Features of Evaluating the Efficiency of Large-scale Infrastructure Network Projects","authors":"V. Livchits, I. Mironova, T. Tischenko, M. Frolova, A. Shvetsov","doi":"10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247826","url":null,"abstract":"The article proposes an unconventional model for assessing the public efficiency of a large-scale infrastructure project, which is inherent in the current stage of development of the Russian economy and is aimed at maximizing investor capital growth at the end of the billing period, taking into account the scenarios for the effective use (reinvestment) of capital generated from the profit received from the project, and lost profits.","PeriodicalId":103344,"journal":{"name":"2020 13th International Conference \"Management of large-scale system development\" (MLSD)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133022651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-28DOI: 10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247803
Elizaveta Budynkova, A. Baybulatov
Nowadays, verification of the initial data for designing the information base of the NPP Automated Process Control System is a guarantee of the correct operation of the NPP Automated Process Control System itself. For this verification, exact and approximate methods are usually applied. Each method provides desirable results for an appropriate problem type. Exact methods are more suitable for solving this problem. The article presents a solution algorithm in terms of checking both the structure and the content of initial data, including a complete parsing of the Kraftwerk Kennzeichen System code with the study of all its sectors. A list of the most common inconsistencies is also provided.
{"title":"An Example of Verification of the Initial Data for Designing NPP Information Base","authors":"Elizaveta Budynkova, A. Baybulatov","doi":"10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247803","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247803","url":null,"abstract":"Nowadays, verification of the initial data for designing the information base of the NPP Automated Process Control System is a guarantee of the correct operation of the NPP Automated Process Control System itself. For this verification, exact and approximate methods are usually applied. Each method provides desirable results for an appropriate problem type. Exact methods are more suitable for solving this problem. The article presents a solution algorithm in terms of checking both the structure and the content of initial data, including a complete parsing of the Kraftwerk Kennzeichen System code with the study of all its sectors. A list of the most common inconsistencies is also provided.","PeriodicalId":103344,"journal":{"name":"2020 13th International Conference \"Management of large-scale system development\" (MLSD)","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130580682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-28DOI: 10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247644
F. Ereshko, V. Medennikov, Y. Flerov
The methodology for assessing the effectiveness of the use of scientific and academic information resources in the Internet space has been considered in the context of transition to the digital economy and innovative development. The methodology presented has been elaborated on the basis of the analysis of state and volumes of information resources according to the results of the monitoring of websites of agricultural institutions of higher education.
{"title":"Effectivenes of the Use of Scientific and Academic Information Resourses","authors":"F. Ereshko, V. Medennikov, Y. Flerov","doi":"10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247644","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/MLSD49919.2020.9247644","url":null,"abstract":"The methodology for assessing the effectiveness of the use of scientific and academic information resources in the Internet space has been considered in the context of transition to the digital economy and innovative development. The methodology presented has been elaborated on the basis of the analysis of state and volumes of information resources according to the results of the monitoring of websites of agricultural institutions of higher education.","PeriodicalId":103344,"journal":{"name":"2020 13th International Conference \"Management of large-scale system development\" (MLSD)","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131171742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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