RG de Moura, F. Correia, J. Veiga, V. Capistrano, PY Kubota
{"title":"Influence of isolated interannual and decadal scales on the water balance of the Amazon basin","authors":"RG de Moura, F. Correia, J. Veiga, V. Capistrano, PY Kubota","doi":"10.3354/cr01685","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01685","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"92 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72769526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Rajkumar, C. S. Shaijumon, B. Gopakumar, D. Gopalakrishnan
{"title":"Recent patterns of extreme temperature events over Tamil Nadu, India","authors":"R. Rajkumar, C. S. Shaijumon, B. Gopakumar, D. Gopalakrishnan","doi":"10.3354/CR01655","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/CR01655","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72886407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Preconditions for CMIP6 models to reproduce the relationship between wintertime ENSO and subsequent East Asian summer rainfall","authors":"Y. Fu, Z. Lin, T. Wang","doi":"10.3354/cr01663","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01663","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81277109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jarad P Mellard, J. Henden, Å. Pedersen, F. Marolla, S. Hamel, N. Yoccoz, R. Ims
Scientists and wildlife managers implementing adaptive monitoring and management schemes, are tasked with providing predictions of population responses to harvest and environmental changes. Such predictions are useful not only to forecast direct effects of climate, productivity, land use, or habitat degradation, but also changes in the food web, such as expanding/ increasing species that are predators, prey, and competitors of populations of concern. Explicit consideration of food webs and their dynamics in more complex models could provide better predictions of future changes, and allow us to better assess the influence of management actions. Here, we present our perspective on what we have learned from conducting a number of case studies using such a food web approach with a focus on climate and harvest impacts and their implications for management. We found empirical support for many of our hypothesized food web effects, and were able in some cases to obtain short-term forecasts with slightly lower prediction error using models that account for food web dynamics compared with simpler models. Predictions are the foundation of adaptive management because they allow quantitative assessment of the effects of management actions; however, evaluating predictions requires adequate and highquality monitoring data. Results from our case studies show that a combination of long-term monitoring and different types of study designs coupled with models of adequate complexity are likely required to better understand populations’ responses to environmental changes and harvest, as well as the consequences for food webs.
{"title":"Food web approach for managing Arctic wildlife populations in an era of rapid environmental change","authors":"Jarad P Mellard, J. Henden, Å. Pedersen, F. Marolla, S. Hamel, N. Yoccoz, R. Ims","doi":"10.3354/CR01638","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/CR01638","url":null,"abstract":"Scientists and wildlife managers implementing adaptive monitoring and management schemes, are tasked with providing predictions of population responses to harvest and environmental changes. Such predictions are useful not only to forecast direct effects of climate, productivity, land use, or habitat degradation, but also changes in the food web, such as expanding/ increasing species that are predators, prey, and competitors of populations of concern. Explicit consideration of food webs and their dynamics in more complex models could provide better predictions of future changes, and allow us to better assess the influence of management actions. Here, we present our perspective on what we have learned from conducting a number of case studies using such a food web approach with a focus on climate and harvest impacts and their implications for management. We found empirical support for many of our hypothesized food web effects, and were able in some cases to obtain short-term forecasts with slightly lower prediction error using models that account for food web dynamics compared with simpler models. Predictions are the foundation of adaptive management because they allow quantitative assessment of the effects of management actions; however, evaluating predictions requires adequate and highquality monitoring data. Results from our case studies show that a combination of long-term monitoring and different types of study designs coupled with models of adequate complexity are likely required to better understand populations’ responses to environmental changes and harvest, as well as the consequences for food webs.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"81 1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86455287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Assessing the impact of Land-use and Land-cover changes on the climate over India using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM4)","authors":"S. Nayak, M. Mandal, S. Maity","doi":"10.3354/cr01666","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01666","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"114 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77766819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections","authors":"Soledad Collazo, Mariana Barrucand, M. Rusticucci","doi":"10.3354/cr01673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01673","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82489023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modelling snowfall in southern Italy: a historical perspective in the Benevento Valley (1645–2018)","authors":"N. Diodato, I. Gómara, G. Bellocchi","doi":"10.3354/cr01681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01681","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"64 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77948342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Mirzaei, H. Azarm, M. Yazdanpanah, M. Mardani Najafabadi
{"title":"Socio-economic, social-capital and psychological characteristics and climate change adaptive behavior of farmers in Iran","authors":"A. Mirzaei, H. Azarm, M. Yazdanpanah, M. Mardani Najafabadi","doi":"10.3354/cr01683","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01683","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81586995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Di Ma, Q. Jing, Yue‐Ping Xu, Alex J. Cannon, T. Dong, M. Semenov, B. Qian
Using climate scenarios from only 1 or a small number of global climate models (GCMs) in climate change impact studies may lead to biased assessment due to large uncertainty in climate projections. Ensemble means in impact projections derived from a multi-GCM ensemble are often used as best estimates to reduce bias. However, it is often time consuming to run process-based models (e.g. hydrological and crop models) in climate change impact studies using numerous climate scenarios. It would be interesting to investigate if using a reduced number of climate scenarios could lead to a reasonable estimate of the ensemble mean. In this study, we generated a single ensemble-mean climate scenario (En-WG scenario) using ensemble means of the change factors derived from 20 GCMs included in CMIP5 to perturb the parameters in a weather generator, LARS-WG, for selected locations across Canada. We used En-WG scenarios to drive crop growth models in DSSAT ver. 4.7 to simulate crop yields for canola and spring wheat under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. We evaluated the potential of using the En-WG scenarios to simulate crop yields by comparing them with crop yields simulated with the LARS-WG generated climate scenarios based on each of the 20 GCMs (WG scenarios). Our results showed that simulated crop yields using the En-WG scenarios were often close to the ensemble means of simulated crop yields using the 20 WG scenarios with a high probability of outperforming simulations based on a randomly selected GCM. Further studies are required, as the results of the proposed ap proach may be influenced by selected crop types, crop models, weather generators, and GCM ensembles.
{"title":"Using ensemble-mean climate scenarios for future crop yield projections: a stochastic weather generator approach","authors":"Di Ma, Q. Jing, Yue‐Ping Xu, Alex J. Cannon, T. Dong, M. Semenov, B. Qian","doi":"10.3354/CR01646","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/CR01646","url":null,"abstract":"Using climate scenarios from only 1 or a small number of global climate models (GCMs) in climate change impact studies may lead to biased assessment due to large uncertainty in climate projections. Ensemble means in impact projections derived from a multi-GCM ensemble are often used as best estimates to reduce bias. However, it is often time consuming to run process-based models (e.g. hydrological and crop models) in climate change impact studies using numerous climate scenarios. It would be interesting to investigate if using a reduced number of climate scenarios could lead to a reasonable estimate of the ensemble mean. In this study, we generated a single ensemble-mean climate scenario (En-WG scenario) using ensemble means of the change factors derived from 20 GCMs included in CMIP5 to perturb the parameters in a weather generator, LARS-WG, for selected locations across Canada. We used En-WG scenarios to drive crop growth models in DSSAT ver. 4.7 to simulate crop yields for canola and spring wheat under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. We evaluated the potential of using the En-WG scenarios to simulate crop yields by comparing them with crop yields simulated with the LARS-WG generated climate scenarios based on each of the 20 GCMs (WG scenarios). Our results showed that simulated crop yields using the En-WG scenarios were often close to the ensemble means of simulated crop yields using the 20 WG scenarios with a high probability of outperforming simulations based on a randomly selected GCM. Further studies are required, as the results of the proposed ap proach may be influenced by selected crop types, crop models, weather generators, and GCM ensembles.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86423843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global warming as an aspect of climate change has caused environmental problems, especially in dry regions. Identifying and assessing future climate change is therefore paramount to facilitate suitable environmental planning to adapt to, and reduce, its effects. Here, changes in the annual and seasonal maximum temperatures for 7 meteorological stations in southwestern Iraq were projected across mid-term (2040-2069) and long-term (2070-2099) time periods. Three different general circulation models (GCMs)—CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5—were applied to 2 future emission representative concentration pathway scenarios—RCP4.5 and RCP8.5—using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) applied to data collected over the period 1975-2005. The downscaling modeling process was effective at generating maximum temperatures over the selected time periods. The future simulation scenarios projected that temperatures will increase up to the end of the century, with the region potentially experiencing temperature increases of about 1.78-2.07°C during 2040-2069 and 2.2-2.63°C during 2070-2099 under RCP4.5. Projected warming for scenario RCP8.5 was 2.18-2.85°C and 2.93-3.7°C over the same time periods. These projected increases in temperature imply water scarcity and increases in desertification, which can be considered threats to the region.
{"title":"Climate change projections of maximum temperatures for southwest Iraq using statistical downscaling","authors":"W. Hassan","doi":"10.3354/CR01647","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/CR01647","url":null,"abstract":"Global warming as an aspect of climate change has caused environmental problems, especially in dry regions. Identifying and assessing future climate change is therefore paramount to facilitate suitable environmental planning to adapt to, and reduce, its effects. Here, changes in the annual and seasonal maximum temperatures for 7 meteorological stations in southwestern Iraq were projected across mid-term (2040-2069) and long-term (2070-2099) time periods. Three different general circulation models (GCMs)—CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5—were applied to 2 future emission representative concentration pathway scenarios—RCP4.5 and RCP8.5—using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) applied to data collected over the period 1975-2005. The downscaling modeling process was effective at generating maximum temperatures over the selected time periods. The future simulation scenarios projected that temperatures will increase up to the end of the century, with the region potentially experiencing temperature increases of about 1.78-2.07°C during 2040-2069 and 2.2-2.63°C during 2070-2099 under RCP4.5. Projected warming for scenario RCP8.5 was 2.18-2.85°C and 2.93-3.7°C over the same time periods. These projected increases in temperature imply water scarcity and increases in desertification, which can be considered threats to the region.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81504654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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