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Spatiotemporal variation in climatic conditions across ecosystems 生态系统间气候条件的时空变化
IF 1.1 4区 地球科学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-06-17 DOI: 10.3354/CR01641
I. Herfindal, S. Aanes, R. Benestad, A. Finstad, A. Salthaug, N. Stenseth, B. Sæther
Environmental variation in time and space affects biological processes such as extinction risk and speed of adaptation to environmental change. The spatial structure of environmental variation may vary among ecosystems, for instance due to differences in the flow of nutrients, genes and individuals. However, inferences about ecosystem spatial scale should also include spatial autocorrelation in environmental stochasticity, such as fluctuations in weather or climate. We used spatially structured time series (19-36 yr) on temperature from 4 different ecosystems (terrestrial, limnic, coastal sea and open ocean) to assess the spatiotemporal patterns of environmental variation over large geographical scales (up to 1900 km) during summer and winter. The distance of positive spatial autocorrelation in mean temperature was greatest for the terrestrial system (range: 592-622 km), and shorter for the open ocean (range: 472-414 km), coastal sea (range: 155-814 km) and the limnic systems (range: 51-324 km), suggesting a stronger spatial structure in environmental variation in the terrestrial system. The terrestrial system had high spatial synchrony in temperature (mean correlation: winter = 0.82, summer = 0.66) with a great spatial scaling (>650 km). Consequently, populations of terrestrial species experience similar environmental fluctuations even at distances up to 1000 km, compared to species in the aquatic systems (<500 km). There were clear seasonal differences in environmental synchrony in the terrestrial and limnic systems, but less so in the other systems. Our results suggest that biological processes affected by environmental stochasticity occur at the largest spatial scale in terrestrial systems, but their magnitude depends on whether the process is affected by winter or summer conditions.
环境在时间和空间上的变化影响生物过程,如灭绝风险和适应环境变化的速度。环境变化的空间结构可能因生态系统而异,例如由于营养物质、基因和个体流动的差异。然而,对生态系统空间尺度的推断还应包括环境随机性中的空间自相关,如天气或气候的波动。利用4个不同生态系统(陆地、湖泊、沿海和远洋)19 ~ 36年的温度空间结构时间序列,分析了大地理尺度(1900公里)夏季和冬季环境变化的时空格局。平均温度的空间正相关距离以陆地系统最大(592 ~ 622 km),其次为公海(472 ~ 414 km)、近海(155 ~ 814 km)和湖盆系统(51 ~ 324 km),表明陆地系统环境变化具有较强的空间结构。地面系统温度空间同动性强,冬季平均相关系数为0.82,夏季平均相关系数为0.66,空间尺度较大(>650 km)。因此,与水生系统中的物种(<500公里)相比,陆生物种种群即使在距离达1000公里的地方也会经历类似的环境波动。在陆地系统和湖泊系统中,环境同步性存在明显的季节差异,而在其他系统中差异较小。我们的研究结果表明,受环境随机性影响的生物过程在陆地系统中发生在最大的空间尺度上,但其大小取决于该过程是受冬季还是夏季条件的影响。
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引用次数: 6
Ocean–Land Atmosphere Model (OLAM) performance for major extreme meteorological events near the coastal region of southern Brazil 巴西南部沿海地区主要极端气象事件的海陆大气模式(OLAM)表现
IF 1.1 4区 地球科学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-06-03 DOI: 10.3354/CR01651
D. C. Souza, Renato Ramos da Silva
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引用次数: 3
Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies on rainfed and irrigated maize in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Northwestern China 气候变化对西北农牧交错带旱作玉米的影响及适应策略
IF 1.1 4区 地球科学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-04-08 DOI: 10.3354/CR01635
Z. Han, B. Zhang, G. Hoogenboom, Xia Li, C. He
The agro-pastoral ecotone of Northwestern China (APENC) is one of the major agricultural production areas in China and a region where climate change is evident. Maize is a widely cultivated crop in the APENC, but the potential impact of climate change on maize, and potential adaptation strategies in response to this, are poorly understood. In this study, we used the Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Maize to evaluate the impacts of climate change on maize yield, as well as the feasibility of 2 adaptation strategies; namely, adjusting the planting date and supplying irrigation. CSM-CERES-Maize was driven by an ensemble of 20 global climate models under 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). CSM-CERES-Maize performed well in simulating phenology, leaf area index (LAI), maize yield, and soil water dynamics. The results showed that irrigated maize yield would change by +3.9, -16.3, and -20.4% under the RCP4.5 scenario and +0.1, -31.2, and -53.1% under the RCP8.5 scenario in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, respectively. Rainfed maize yield during the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s would change by +21.7, +16.4, and +12.6% under the RCP4.5 scenario and +25.1, +4.8, and -12.3% under the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Evaluation of adaptation strategies suggests that delaying planting dates and supplying irrigation at the tasseling and grain filling stages are the best strategies to increase maize yield under climate change. These results will provide comprehensive information for local policymakers to combat the adverse impacts of climate change.
西北农牧交错带是中国主要的农业生产区之一,也是气候变化较为明显的地区。玉米是亚太经合组织广泛种植的作物,但人们对气候变化对玉米的潜在影响以及应对这种影响的潜在适应策略知之甚少。本研究利用CSM -CERES-Maize模型评估了气候变化对玉米产量的影响,以及两种适应策略的可行性;即调整种植日期和灌溉。CMIP5耦合模式比对项目第5阶段(CMIP5)的2个代表性浓度路径(rcp: RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下的20个全球气候模式集合驱动了CSM-CERES-Maize。CSM-CERES-Maize在模拟物候、叶面积指数、玉米产量和土壤水分动态方面表现良好。结果表明:2030年代、2060年代和2090年代,RCP4.5情景下灌溉玉米产量变化幅度分别为+3.9、- 16.3%和-20.4%,RCP8.5情景下分别为+0.1、-31.2和-53.1%;在RCP4.5情景下,2030年代、60年代和90年代旱作玉米产量的变化幅度分别为+21.7、+16.4和+12.6%,在RCP8.5情景下,分别为+25.1、+4.8和-12.3%。对适应策略的评价表明,在气候变化条件下,推迟播种日期和在抽雄灌浆期灌水是提高玉米产量的最佳策略。这些结果将为当地决策者提供全面的信息,以应对气候变化的不利影响。
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引用次数: 1
Impact of Automated Statistical Downscaling and Delta Downscaling methods on projecting future climate change in the northeast Tibetan Plateau 自动统计降尺度和三角洲降尺度方法对青藏高原东北部未来气候变化预测的影响
IF 1.1 4区 地球科学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-04-08 DOI: 10.3354/CR01634
A. Chen, S. Zhang, Z. Li
The accuracy of different downscaling methods in projecting future precipitation and air temperature from general circulation models (GCMs) has rarely been addressed with regards to the Tibetan Plateau, and this information is important for future water resource management in the region. The performance of automated statistical downscaling (ASD) and Delta downscaling methods in predicting precipitation and air temperature was evaluated at 19 meteorological stations in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor (QM-HC) by comparing with in situ observations from 2006-2015. These comparisons, based on Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5), suggest that the difference in annual precipitation between the ASD model and the Delta method is 17 mm. Testing different weights of the 2 downscaling methods indicates that combining the 2 methods results in lower uncertainty. The downscaling of annual precipitation projected by weighting the results of the 2 methods suggested that, based on RCP4.5, precipitation will not increase significantly from 2021-2100 compared to the past (1961-2005) and will fluctuate steadily in the coming decades. These projections are in contrast with previous projections of a significant increase. Air temperature is projected to increase by approximately 0.2°C decade-1 from 2021-2100 according to the weighted average of the ASD model and Delta method based on RCP4.5. This study indicates that management measures based on projected increased precipitation should be carefully reconsidered in different regions.
不同降尺度方法对青藏高原大气环流模式预测未来降水和气温的准确性研究很少,这些信息对该地区未来的水资源管理具有重要意义。通过与2006-2015年祁连山和河西走廊19个气象站的现场观测数据对比,评价了自动统计降尺度(ASD)和Delta降尺度方法在预测降水和气温中的效果。这些基于代表性浓度路径4.5 (RCP4.5)的比较表明,ASD模式与Delta方法的年降水量差异为17 mm。对两种降尺度方法的不同权重进行了测试,结果表明,两种降尺度方法相结合的不确定度较低。通过对两种方法的结果进行加权预估的年降水量降尺度表明,基于RCP4.5的降水量在2021-2100年期间与过去(1961-2005年)相比不会显著增加,并将在未来几十年稳定波动。这些预测与以前预测的大幅增加形成对比。根据基于RCP4.5的ASD模式和Delta方法的加权平均值,预计2021-2100年气温将上升约0.2°C。该研究表明,在不同地区应仔细考虑基于预估降水增加的管理措施。
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引用次数: 2
Role of the eastern Pacific-Caribbean Sea SST gradient in the Choco low-level jet variations from 1900-2015 1900-2015年东太平洋-加勒比海海温梯度在Choco低空急流变化中的作用
IF 1.1 4区 地球科学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-03-25 DOI: 10.3354/cr01633
W. L. Cerón, RV Andreoli, M. Kayano, Álvaro Ávila-Díaz
In this article, we propose a novel approach for assessing the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean Sea on the Choco low-level jet (CJ) intensity over the 1900-2015 period that involved defining the interbasin gradient index (IGR) between these 2 oceanic basins. We also studied the effects on rainfall in northwestern South America and Central America in the high CJ season during September-November (SON). Wavelet coherence analysis showed high consistency between CJ and IGR on an interannual scale of 2-8 yr. Precipitation increased over central, western, and northern Colombia and most of Central America during strong CJ (SCJ) and decreased during weak CJ (WCJ) events, which occurred, respectively, in the negative IGR (NIGR) and positive IGR (PIGR) phases. NIGR is associated with anomalous cooling in the tropical Pacific and warming in the equatorial Atlantic; opposite patterns are observed during PIGR. Also, the CJ and the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) showed reversed intensities such that as one strengthened, the other weakened and vice versa. Our results indicate that the low-frequency SST anomalies in the North Atlantic affect the IGR and low-level jet intensities associated with changes in large-scale circulation modulated by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Indeed, positive precipitation anomalies during the SCJ under NIGR were more accentuated and extensive in the warm AMO (WAMO) than in the cold AMO (CAMO) phase. Conversely, negative precipitation anomalies during WCJ under PIGR were more accentuated and extensive in the CAMO than in the WAMO.
在本文中,我们提出了一种新的方法来评估1900-2015年间东太平洋和加勒比海海表温度(SST)变化对Choco低空急流(CJ)强度的影响,该方法涉及定义这两个海洋盆地之间的盆地间梯度指数(IGR)。研究了9 - 11月CJ高季对南美洲西北部和中美洲降水的影响。小波相干分析显示,在2 ~ 8年的年际尺度上,哥伦比亚中部、西部、北部和中美洲大部分地区在强CJ (SCJ)期间降水增加,而在弱CJ (WCJ)期间降水减少,分别发生在IGR负相(NIGR)和IGR正相(PIGR)。NIGR与热带太平洋的异常降温和赤道大西洋的异常升温有关;在PIGR期间观察到相反的模式。此外,CJ和加勒比海低空急流(CLLJ)表现出一个增强,另一个减弱,反之亦然的相反强度。结果表明,北大西洋的低频海温异常影响了与大西洋多年代际涛动(AMO)调制的大尺度环流变化相关的IGR和低层急流强度。在NIGR条件下,SCJ的正降水异常在暖AMO (WAMO)阶段比冷AMO (CAMO)阶段更为突出和广泛。相反,在PIGR条件下,WCJ期间的负降水异常在CAMO中比在WAMO中更为突出和广泛。
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引用次数: 8
Tree ring-reconstructed late summer moisture conditions, 1546 to present, northern Lake Michigan, USA 1546年至今,美国密西根湖北部树木年轮重建的夏末湿度状况
IF 1.1 4区 地球科学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-03-11 DOI: 10.3354/CR01637
Scott M. Warner, Samantha J. Jeffries, W. Lovis, A. Arbogast, F. Telewski
Drought can affect even humid regions like northeastern North America, which experienced significant, well-documented dry spells in the 1930s, 50s, 60s, and 80s, and proxies tell us that in the years before instrumentally recorded climate, droughts could be even more severe. To get a more complete picture of pre-recorded climate, the spatial coverage of proxy-based climate reconstructions must be extended. This can better put in context past, current, and future climate, and it can lend anthropological and historical insights. With regard to tree rings as climate proxies, however, there is increasing evidence that relationships between tree growth and climate can be inconsistent over time, in some cases decreasing the utility of tree rings in the representation of climate. We developed a chronology from white cedar Thuja occidentalis tree ring widths for the period 1469-2015 C.E. with which we modeled the relationship between growth and July-September moisture conditions (Palmer Z index). The relationship was consistent across the period of instrumentally recorded climate, 1895-present, and the model explained 27% of variability. Therefore, we used the model to reconstruct July-September moisture conditions from 1546-2014. We found the most variable century to be the 20th, the least the 18th. The severest decade-scale droughts (≤0.75 SD from mean) occurred in the 1560s, 1600s/10s, 1630s, 1770s/80s, 1840s, and 1910s/20s, the severest pluvials (≥0.75 SD) in the 1610s/20s, 1660s/70s, and the 1970s/80s. The occasional occurrence of severe droughts throughout the reconstruction, increasing variability in the 20th century, and expected climate change-enhanced late summer drought, portend a future punctuated with severe droughts.
干旱甚至会影响到湿润的地区,比如北美东北部,那里在20世纪30年代、50年代、60年代和80年代经历了严重的、有充分记录的干旱期,代用物告诉我们,在仪器记录气候之前的几年里,干旱可能会更加严重。为了更全面地了解预记录的气候,基于代理的气候重建的空间覆盖范围必须扩大。这可以更好地把过去、现在和未来的气候放在背景下,它可以提供人类学和历史学的见解。然而,关于树木年轮作为气候代用物,越来越多的证据表明,树木生长与气候之间的关系可能随着时间的推移而不一致,在某些情况下,树木年轮在表征气候方面的效用会降低。我们从1469年至2015年的白雪松树年轮宽度中开发了一个年表,我们用它来模拟生长与7月至9月湿度条件(Palmer Z指数)之间的关系。这种关系在仪器记录的气候期间(1895年至今)是一致的,该模式解释了27%的变率。因此,我们使用该模型重建了1546-2014年7 - 9月的湿度条件。我们发现变化最大的世纪是20世纪,变化最小的世纪是18世纪。最严重的十年尺度干旱发生在1560年代、1600年代/10年代、1630年代、1770年代/80年代、1840年代和1910年代/20年代,降水最严重(≥0.75 SD)发生在1610年代/20年代、1660年代/70年代和70年代/80年代。在整个重建过程中偶尔发生的严重干旱,20世纪的变异性增加,以及预期的气候变化增强的夏末干旱,预示着未来将不时出现严重干旱。
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引用次数: 3
The future of paleoclimate 古气候的未来
IF 1.1 4区 地球科学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-03-11 DOI: 10.3354/CR01636
J. Esper, U. Büntgen
Our understanding of natural climate variability rapidly declines over the Common Era (CE) as the pre-instrumental temperature amplitude differs substantially among large-scale reconstructions. Highlighting such differences and emphasizing paleoclimatic findings is crucial for placing anthropogenic climate change in a long-term context. We argue that more proxy records are needed to accurately reconstruct first millennium CE temperature variability and value regional studies producing such data.
我们对自然气候变率的理解在普通时代(CE)迅速下降,因为仪器前的温度振幅在大规模重建中存在很大差异。强调这些差异并强调古气候发现对于将人为气候变化置于长期背景下是至关重要的。我们认为需要更多的代理记录来准确地重建第一个千年CE的温度变化,并价值区域研究产生这样的数据。
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引用次数: 5
Non-pooled oak (Quercus spp.) stable isotopes reveal enhanced climate sensitivity compared to ring widths 非池栎(栎属)稳定同位素表明,与环宽度相比,气候敏感性增强
IF 1.1 4区 地球科学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-02-25 DOI: 10.3354/cr01632
M. Rybníček, T. Kolář, A. Ač, J. Balek, E. Koňasová, M. Trnka, O. Urban, U. Büntgen
Multi-centennial- to millennial-long oak (Quercus spp.) tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies from living and relict wood are frequently used for climate reconstructions, but the amount of explained hydroclimatic variation remains relatively small. Although stable carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios (δ13C and δ18O values) in tree rings may offer enhanced climate sensitivity, our understanding of their paleoclimatic sensitivity is still limited by the general lack of well-replicated and high-resolution datasets. Here, we assessed the temperature, precipitation, and drought signal of annual δ13C and δ18O values and TRW measurements from 21 oaks growing under different ecological settings in the Czech Republic. Compared to the overall low climate sensitivity of TRW, the δ13C and δ18O chronologies revealed significant positive and negative correlations with March-August mean temperature and hydroclimate (for the period 1901-2018), respectively. Additional tests on the effect of sample size demonstrated robust climate sensitivity of the isotopic chronologies when non-pooled alpha cellulose from the latewood of at least 6 individual oaks was used. Our study suggests that oak stable isotopes are possibly the best high-resolution paleoclimatic proxy for the Central European lowlands, as well as any other temperate habitat where oak wood has historically been used as construction timber, and where traditional tree-ring parameters, such as TRW, tend to fail.
百年至千年的栎树年轮宽度(TRW)年表经常用于气候重建,但解释的水文气候变化量仍然相对较小。尽管树木年轮中稳定的碳氧同位素比率(δ13C和δ18O值)可能提供增强的气候敏感性,但我们对其古气候敏感性的理解仍然受到普遍缺乏良好复制和高分辨率数据集的限制。本文对捷克不同生态环境下生长的21棵栎树的年δ13C和δ18O值以及TRW值进行了温度、降水和干旱信号分析。与TRW整体低气候敏感性相比,δ13C和δ18O年代学分别与3 - 8月平均气温和水文气候(1901-2018年)呈显著正相关和负相关。对样本量影响的额外测试表明,当使用来自至少6棵橡树的晚木的非混合α纤维素时,同位素年表具有强大的气候敏感性。我们的研究表明,橡树的稳定同位素可能是中欧低地以及任何其他温带栖息地最好的高分辨率古气候代表,在这些栖息地,橡树木材历史上被用作建筑木材,而传统的树木年轮参数,如TRW,往往失效。
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引用次数: 5
Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Industrial Water Demand by Sector 气候变化对各行业工业用水需求的影响评估
IF 1.1 4区 地球科学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3354/CR01661
X. Zhang, Jy Zhang, Tq Ao, X.-j. Wang, T. Chen, BX Wang
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引用次数: 2
Future changes in aridity in the Upper Indus Basin during the twenty-first century 21世纪上印度河流域干旱的未来变化
IF 1.1 4区 地球科学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3354/cr01684
X. Wang, X. Lang, D. Jiang
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引用次数: 0
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