J. Alvar-Beltrán, A. Gobin, S. Orlandini, A. Dao, A. D. Marta
Quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.) is a herbaceous C3 crop that has demonstrated resilience in regions concurrently affected by climate change and food insecurity, such as sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The photosynthetic rate and productivity of C3 crops are enhanced under increasing CO2 concentrations. We looked at future climate trends in SSA to estimate their impacts on quinoa yields in Burkina Faso. Climate projections show a temperature increase of 1.67-4.90°C under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively by the end of the century. We demonstrate that any further climate disturbances can either be beneficial or harmful for quinoa, and modulating climate risks will depend on the decisions made at the farm level (e.g. planting date and crop choice). Crop modelling supports the identification of the most suitable transplanting dates based on future climate conditions (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), agroclimatic zones (Sahel, Soudano-Sahelian and Soudanian) and time-horizons (2020, 2025, 2050 and 2075). We show that quinoa yields can improve—when grown under irrigated conditions and transplanted in November—by about 14-20% under RCP 4.5 and by 24-33% under RCP 8.5 by 2075 across the Sahel and Soudanian agroclimatic zones, respectively. For the Soudano-Sahelian zone, the highest yield improvements (19%) are obtained when transplanting is assumed in December under RCP 8.5 by 2075. Overall, the findings of this work encourage policymakers and agricultural extension officers to further promote climate-resilient and highly nutritious crops. Such possibilities are of much interest in SSA, thought to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts where millions of people are already experiencing food insecurity.
{"title":"Climate resilience of irrigated quinoa in semi-arid West Africa","authors":"J. Alvar-Beltrán, A. Gobin, S. Orlandini, A. Dao, A. D. Marta","doi":"10.3354/CR01660","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/CR01660","url":null,"abstract":"Quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.) is a herbaceous C3 crop that has demonstrated resilience in regions concurrently affected by climate change and food insecurity, such as sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The photosynthetic rate and productivity of C3 crops are enhanced under increasing CO2 concentrations. We looked at future climate trends in SSA to estimate their impacts on quinoa yields in Burkina Faso. Climate projections show a temperature increase of 1.67-4.90°C under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively by the end of the century. We demonstrate that any further climate disturbances can either be beneficial or harmful for quinoa, and modulating climate risks will depend on the decisions made at the farm level (e.g. planting date and crop choice). Crop modelling supports the identification of the most suitable transplanting dates based on future climate conditions (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), agroclimatic zones (Sahel, Soudano-Sahelian and Soudanian) and time-horizons (2020, 2025, 2050 and 2075). We show that quinoa yields can improve—when grown under irrigated conditions and transplanted in November—by about 14-20% under RCP 4.5 and by 24-33% under RCP 8.5 by 2075 across the Sahel and Soudanian agroclimatic zones, respectively. For the Soudano-Sahelian zone, the highest yield improvements (19%) are obtained when transplanting is assumed in December under RCP 8.5 by 2075. Overall, the findings of this work encourage policymakers and agricultural extension officers to further promote climate-resilient and highly nutritious crops. Such possibilities are of much interest in SSA, thought to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts where millions of people are already experiencing food insecurity.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74032169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The recently suggested absence of an internal multidecadal oscillation in the North Atlantic has consequences for anticipating the future of marine ecosystems","authors":"G. Beaugrand, R. Faillettaz, R. Kirby","doi":"10.3354/cr01676","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01676","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81972423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
MW Stubberud, CR Nater, Y. Vindenes, L. Vøllestad, Ø. Langangen
For species with individual variation in reproductive success, experience in breeding and the distribution of different breeders is important for population productivity and viability. Human impacts, such as climate change and harvesting, can alter this distribution and thus population dynamics. Here, we investigated the effect of spawning experience on population growth in a population of migratory brown trout Salmo trutta subject to stressors including migration barriers, harvesting, and climate change. We described the population dynamics with a structured integral projection model that differentiates between first-time and repeat spawners. We then took a scenario-based approach to test to which extent spawning experience has a positive effect on the population growth of brown trout by running 3 different model simulations: a baseline scenario with no changes to the reproductive output of the population, a non-selective scenario in which the reproductive output of all spawners was reduced, and a selective scenario where the reproductive output of only first-time spawners was reduced. We found that the reproductive output of repeat spawners is more important than that of first-time spawners for population growth, in line with other studies. Moreover, the contribution of first-time spawners to the population growth through their own survival is more important than their contribution to growth through reproduction. To ensure the continued existence of the study population, survival of first-time spawners and reproductive success of repeat spawners should be prioritised. More generally, including breeding experience adds more mechanistic detail, which ultimately can aid management and conservation efforts.
{"title":"Low impact of first-time spawners on population growth in a brown trout population","authors":"MW Stubberud, CR Nater, Y. Vindenes, L. Vøllestad, Ø. Langangen","doi":"10.3354/CR01645","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/CR01645","url":null,"abstract":"For species with individual variation in reproductive success, experience in breeding and the distribution of different breeders is important for population productivity and viability. Human impacts, such as climate change and harvesting, can alter this distribution and thus population dynamics. Here, we investigated the effect of spawning experience on population growth in a population of migratory brown trout Salmo trutta subject to stressors including migration barriers, harvesting, and climate change. We described the population dynamics with a structured integral projection model that differentiates between first-time and repeat spawners. We then took a scenario-based approach to test to which extent spawning experience has a positive effect on the population growth of brown trout by running 3 different model simulations: a baseline scenario with no changes to the reproductive output of the population, a non-selective scenario in which the reproductive output of all spawners was reduced, and a selective scenario where the reproductive output of only first-time spawners was reduced. We found that the reproductive output of repeat spawners is more important than that of first-time spawners for population growth, in line with other studies. Moreover, the contribution of first-time spawners to the population growth through their own survival is more important than their contribution to growth through reproduction. To ensure the continued existence of the study population, survival of first-time spawners and reproductive success of repeat spawners should be prioritised. More generally, including breeding experience adds more mechanistic detail, which ultimately can aid management and conservation efforts.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72515817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The influence of summer great cyclones on sea ice concentration and area in the Arctic Ocean","authors":"H. Li, Q. Zhu, C. Ke, D. Wang, X. Shen","doi":"10.3354/cr01662","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01662","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82590424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mediterranean Contemporary Winter and Summer Air Mass Climatology with respect to Temperature and Moisture Flux","authors":"S. Şahin","doi":"10.3354/cr01664","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01664","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"119 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85305545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lp Guo, XL（陈西良） Chen, K. Liao, Y. He, Th Zheng, XF Nie, BS Xu, Lc Zhang, Z. Luo
{"title":"Spatiotemporal variation of erosive rainfall and its influence on sediment discharge in the Ganjiang River Basin","authors":"Lp Guo, XL（陈西良） Chen, K. Liao, Y. He, Th Zheng, XF Nie, BS Xu, Lc Zhang, Z. Luo","doi":"10.3354/cr01667","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01667","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"525 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77105887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change assessment at a local scale requires downscaling of general circulation models (GCMs) using various approaches. In this study, statistical downscaling using established machine learning techniques is compared with the proposed extreme gradient boosting decision tree (EXGBDT) technique. The Cauvery river basin in southern peninsular India, which is known for its frequent droughts and floods, was considered in this study. The ACCESS 1.0 CMIP5 historical GCM simulation was used for downscaling the local climate with the help of daily observation data from 35 stations located in the study zone. An intercomparison of model performance in predicting daily weather variables such as precipitation and average, maximum, and minimum temperatures over the upper, middle, and lower Cauvery river basin was performed. The findings show that mean-variance is around 15% and bias is negligible for the proposed EXGBDT model, which is better than other models under consideration. The NSE and R2 values range from 0.75-0.85 for both training and testing periods. The intercomparison of monthly mean values of observed and downscaled data for different sub-basins and parameters suggests higher model efficiency. The lower variance observed in the comparison of CLIMDEX indices suggests that the EXGBDT model performance is better in representing the local climatic condition.
{"title":"Intercomparison of statistical downscaling models: a case study of a large-scale river basin","authors":"P. Loganathan, Abhishek Mahindrakar","doi":"10.3354/CR01642","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/CR01642","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change assessment at a local scale requires downscaling of general circulation models (GCMs) using various approaches. In this study, statistical downscaling using established machine learning techniques is compared with the proposed extreme gradient boosting decision tree (EXGBDT) technique. The Cauvery river basin in southern peninsular India, which is known for its frequent droughts and floods, was considered in this study. The ACCESS 1.0 CMIP5 historical GCM simulation was used for downscaling the local climate with the help of daily observation data from 35 stations located in the study zone. An intercomparison of model performance in predicting daily weather variables such as precipitation and average, maximum, and minimum temperatures over the upper, middle, and lower Cauvery river basin was performed. The findings show that mean-variance is around 15% and bias is negligible for the proposed EXGBDT model, which is better than other models under consideration. The NSE and R2 values range from 0.75-0.85 for both training and testing periods. The intercomparison of monthly mean values of observed and downscaled data for different sub-basins and parameters suggests higher model efficiency. The lower variance observed in the comparison of CLIMDEX indices suggests that the EXGBDT model performance is better in representing the local climatic condition.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91162683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Spatiotemporal and physiographic relationship between MODIS land surface temperature and air temperature over Iran","authors":"M. Moradi, M. Darand","doi":"10.3354/cr01686","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01686","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89713029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Projections of wind power density in Pakistan and adjacent regions","authors":"M. Reboita, RS Kiani, Sajid Ali, T. Khan","doi":"10.3354/cr01679","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01679","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"75 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74648643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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