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Comparing the Effectiveness of the Monetary Policies in Korea and Japan 比较韩国和日本货币政策的有效性
Pub Date : 2021-05-30 DOI: 10.22904/SJE.2021.34.2.006
Sang-Kee Kim, Geunhyung Yim
This study conducts a comparative analysis of the monetary policy transmission channels and their effects in Korea and Japan using a sign restriction VAR model to determine whether a Japanese-style monetary policy can be implemented in Korea. Results indicate considerable differences between Korea and Japan in their monetary policy transmission channels. Conventional monetary policy transmission channels, such as the exchange rate channel, asset price channel, and bank lending channel, works relatively well in Japan. However, in Korea, the interest rate channel is effective but has only a short-term effect on the exchange rate, and the effects on asset prices and bank lending are hard to expect in general. Furthermore, some potential risks working through the housing market may hinder financial stability. Korea and Japan see a limited effect on production in the real sector. These results imply that Korea must be careful about implementing a similar monetary policy as Japan.
本文采用符号约束VAR模型对韩国和日本的货币政策传导渠道及其效果进行了比较分析,以确定韩国是否可以实施日本式的货币政策。结果表明,韩国和日本在货币政策传导渠道上存在相当大的差异。传统的货币政策传导渠道,如汇率渠道、资产价格渠道和银行贷款渠道,在日本运作相对良好。但是,在韩国,利率渠道是有效的,但对汇率的影响只是短期的,对资产价格和银行贷款的影响总体上难以预料。此外,房地产市场的一些潜在风险可能会阻碍金融稳定。韩国和日本的实际生产受到的影响有限。这些结果表明,韩国在实施与日本类似的货币政策时必须谨慎。
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引用次数: 0
The Influence of Central Bank's Digital Currency on Electronic Payment 央行数字货币对电子支付的影响
Pub Date : 2021-05-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3848675
Yunzhen Lyu
On September 24, 2019, the Governor of the People’s Bank of China, Yi Gang, said at an event celebrating the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China that the People’s Bank of China has made positive progress in research on digital currencies. The People’s Bank of China plans to combine the central bank’s digital currency (hereinafter referred to as DCEP) with electronic payment tools, calling it a digital currency and electronic payment package. This paper aims to discuss the current business model and structure of our country's electronic payment industry and related electronic authentication and financial network security industries, as well as the possible impact of the central bank's digital currency after it enters the market.
2019年9月24日,中国人民银行行长易纲在庆祝中华人民共和国成立70周年活动上表示,中国人民银行在数字货币研究方面取得了积极进展。中国人民银行计划将央行数字货币(以下简称DCEP)与电子支付工具结合起来,称之为数字货币和电子支付一揽子方案。本文旨在探讨我国电子支付行业以及相关的电子认证和金融网络安全行业目前的商业模式和结构,以及央行数字货币进入市场后可能产生的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Policies in Support of Lending Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic 冠状病毒(COVID-19)大流行后的贷款支持政策
Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.2866/864527
K. Budnik, I. Dimitrov, Johannes Groß, Martina Jančoková, M. Lampe, Bianca Sorvillo, Anze Stular, M. Volk
This paper looks at the impact of mitigation policies implemented by supervisory and macroprudential authorities as well as national governments in the euro area during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic to support lending to the real economy. The impact assessment concerns joint, and individual, effect of supervisory measures introduced by the ECB Banking Supervision, a reduction in macroprudential buffers put forward by national macroprudential authorities, and public moratoria and guarantee schemes. The analysis has been conducted in the first half of 2020, in a situation of high uncertainty about how the crisis will develop in the future. Against this backdrop, it proposes a method of addressing such uncertainty by assessing the impact of policies across a full range of scenarios. We find that the supervisory, macroprudential and government policies should have helped to maintain higher lending to the non-financial private sector (around 5% higher than lending in the absence of policy measures) and, in particular, to non-financial corporations (12% higher than lending in the absence of policy measures), preventing further amplification of the recession via the banking sector. The national and supervisory and macroprudential actions have reinforced each other, and have been jointly able to affect a broader share of the banking sector.
本文研究了在冠状病毒(COVID-19)大流行期间,欧元区监管和宏观审慎当局以及各国政府实施的缓解政策对支持实体经济贷款的影响。影响评估涉及欧洲央行银行监管局(ECB Banking Supervision)引入的监管措施、国家宏观审慎当局提出的宏观审慎缓冲的减少以及公共暂停和担保计划的联合和个人影响。该分析是在2020年上半年进行的,当时对未来危机将如何发展存在高度不确定性。在此背景下,它提出了一种通过评估政策在各种情况下的影响来解决这种不确定性的方法。我们发现,监管、宏观审慎和政府政策本应有助于维持对非金融私营部门的更高贷款(在没有政策措施的情况下,比贷款高出约5%),特别是对非金融企业的贷款(在没有政策措施的情况下,比贷款高出12%),从而防止经济衰退通过银行业进一步扩大。国家、监管和宏观审慎行动相互加强,共同能够影响更广泛的银行业。
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引用次数: 10
On Robustness of Average Inflation Targeting 论平均通胀目标的稳健性
Pub Date : 2021-04-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3831745
S. Honkapohja, Nigel McClung
This paper considers the performance of average inflation targeting (AIT) policy in a New Keynesian model with adaptive learning agents. Our analysis raises concerns regarding robustness of AIT when agents have imperfect knowledge. In particular, the target steady state can be locally unstable under learning if details about the policy are not publicly available. Near the low steady state with interest rates at the zero lower bound, AIT does not necessarily outperform a standard inflation targeting policy. Policymakers can improve outcomes under AIT by (i) targeting a discounted average of inflation, or (ii) communicating the data window for the target.
本文研究了一个具有自适应学习代理的新凯恩斯模型下平均通货膨胀目标制政策的绩效。我们的分析提出了当代理人的知识不完善时,对AIT的鲁棒性的关注。特别是,如果策略的细节不公开,则目标稳态在学习下可能是局部不稳定的。在利率接近零利率下限的低稳定状态时,AIT并不一定优于标准的通胀目标制政策。政策制定者可以通过(i)设定一个折现的平均通胀目标,或(ii)传达目标的数据窗口,来改善AIT下的结果。
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引用次数: 16
Semantic Analysis of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Communication Reports and Forecasting Model with LSTM 土耳其中央银行通讯报告语义分析及LSTM预测模型
Pub Date : 2021-04-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3828428
Yasin Kutuk
In this research, a statistical system is designed to understand, interpret, and quantify the reports issued by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), an institution that also drives expectations and shapes the market to all agents are related to them. The corpora are CBRT's summaries of monetary policy committee meetings (SMPCM hereafter) published as official press releases. These summaries have three parts: inflation developments, factors affecting inflation, monetary policy, and risks. The graphical representation of items counted and words used shows they ripple together with business cycles. Later, the corpora under these three categories are evaluated according to their sentiment scores. After obtaining them, a Long-Short Term Memory Network is established to derive a quantitative model in order to forecast the sentiment score of each SMPCM, which will be issued in the near future. The LSTM model provides 93% accuracy to estimate semantic scores of SMPCMs.
在本研究中,设计了一个统计系统来理解、解释和量化土耳其共和国中央银行(CBRT)发布的报告,该机构也推动预期并塑造与之相关的所有代理人的市场。该语料是CBRT作为官方新闻稿发布的货币政策委员会会议(以下简称SMPCM)摘要。这些摘要分为三个部分:通货膨胀发展、影响通货膨胀的因素、货币政策和风险。计算的物品和使用的词语的图形表示显示它们与商业周期一起波动。然后,根据这三个类别下的语料库的情绪得分进行评估。获得这些信息后,建立长短期记忆网络,导出定量模型,预测即将发布的每个SMPCM的情绪得分。LSTM模型估计smpcm语义分数的准确率为93%。
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引用次数: 0
Cash Is Not King: Evidence from the Commercial Paper Market 现金不是王道:来自商业票据市场的证据
Pub Date : 2021-04-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3824651
Sven Klingler, O. Syrstad, Guillaume Vuillemey
Using new transaction-level data for non-financial commercial paper (CP) in the U.S., we show that companies systematically reduce their outstanding short-term debt on quarterly and annual disclosure dates. Constraints on CP lending supply cannot explain this pattern. Instead, firms prefer repaying short-term debt over disclosing high cash holdings to signal that their cash is readily available and not trapped in foreign subsidiaries. Consistent with this interpretation, we show that firms with higher cash holdings, more sales in regions with tight capital controls, or with higher debt-equity ratios compared to industry peers reduce their short-term debt more aggressively at disclosure dates.
利用美国非金融商业票据(CP)的新交易水平数据,我们表明公司在季度和年度披露日期系统地减少了未偿短期债务。对商业票据贷款供应的限制无法解释这种模式。相反,公司更愿意偿还短期债务,而不是披露高现金持有量,以表明他们的现金随时可用,没有被困在外国子公司。与这一解释相一致的是,我们表明,与行业同行相比,现金持有量较高、在资本管制严格的地区销售更多或债务权益比率较高的公司在披露日期更积极地减少短期债务。
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引用次数: 0
Am I Riskier If I Rescue My Banks? The Unintended Effects of Bailouts 拯救银行会给我带来风险吗?救助计划的意外影响
Pub Date : 2021-04-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3819759
P. Cuadros-Solas, C. Salvador, Nuria Suárez
We examine the relationship between bank bailouts and sovereign risk in 35 countries and 19 bailouts during 2005–2015. Bailouts negatively affect sovereign ratings, with rating agencies consistently perceiving higher risk when the country’s banking system has been rescued (risk-increasing effect). Financial soundness and banking market structure shape the impact of bailouts on sovereign risk. In particular, proactiveness in undertaking public bailouts for banking systems that are largely distressed -risky and low profitable- and highly concentrated seems to lead to lower increases in sovereign risk. However, the strength of the connection between the public sector and the banking system neither moderates nor magnifies the impact of bailouts. Moreover, ratings dynamics (duration, momentum, timing) are found to be affected by bailouts revealing that the effects of bailouts on ratings are not short-lived. Results are robust to endogeneity concerns, sample selection bias and several robustness tests.
我们研究了2005-2015年间35个国家和19个救助计划的银行救助与主权风险之间的关系。救助会对主权评级产生负面影响,评级机构一直认为,当一个国家的银行体系得到救助时,风险会更高(风险增加效应)。金融稳健性和银行市场结构决定了救助对主权风险的影响。特别是,积极主动地对基本上陷入困境、风险高、利润低、高度集中的银行体系进行公共救助,似乎会降低主权风险的增长。然而,公共部门与银行体系之间的紧密联系既不会缓和也不会放大纾困的影响。此外,评级动态(持续时间、动量、时机)被发现受到救助的影响,这表明救助对评级的影响不是短暂的。结果是稳健的内生性问题,样本选择偏差和几个稳健性检验。
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引用次数: 0
Deposit Insurance and Credit Union Lending 存款保险和信用社贷款
Pub Date : 2021-03-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3821558
Linh Nguyen, John O. S. Wilson, T. Le, H. Luu, X. Vo, Tram-Anh Nguyen
We exploit an exogenous change in the coverage of insured deposits following the passage of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (2008) to investigate the impact of deposit insurance on the volume, composition and quality of credit union lending. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find changes in the volume, composition and riskiness of credit union lending. Specifically, we find that affected credit unions increase total and unsecured lending, leading to a decline in loan quality. Overall, our results suggest that an increase in the maximum coverage of insured deposits induces credit unions to lend more at the expense of loan quality.
我们利用《紧急经济稳定法》(2008年)通过后投保存款覆盖范围的外生变化,调查存款保险对信用合作社贷款的数量、组成和质量的影响。使用差异中的差异方法,我们发现了信用合作社贷款的数量、构成和风险的变化。具体来说,我们发现受影响的信用合作社增加了总贷款和无担保贷款,导致贷款质量下降。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,保险存款的最大覆盖范围的增加会导致信用合作社以牺牲贷款质量为代价发放更多贷款。
{"title":"Deposit Insurance and Credit Union Lending","authors":"Linh Nguyen, John O. S. Wilson, T. Le, H. Luu, X. Vo, Tram-Anh Nguyen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3821558","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3821558","url":null,"abstract":"We exploit an exogenous change in the coverage of insured deposits following the passage of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (2008) to investigate the impact of deposit insurance on the volume, composition and quality of credit union lending. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find changes in the volume, composition and riskiness of credit union lending. Specifically, we find that affected credit unions increase total and unsecured lending, leading to a decline in loan quality. Overall, our results suggest that an increase in the maximum coverage of insured deposits induces credit unions to lend more at the expense of loan quality.","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"67 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78745069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On Selling Sovereigns Held by the ECB to the ESM: Institutional and Economic Policy Implications 论向ESM出售欧洲央行持有的主权债券:制度和经济政策的影响
Pub Date : 2021-03-22 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3810617
E. Avgouleas, S. Micossi
A repetition of austerity policies of the early 2010s is not consistent with maintaining adequate growth and sovereign debt sustainability in the post-pandemic environment, argue the authors of this CEPS Policy Insight. Likewise, a debt restructuring process with deep haircuts will just upset the fragile state of the markets and create a run on the debt of the most vulnerable member states, forcing the ECB to buy even more debt. Common policies are thus required to keep the sovereigns acquired by the ECB with its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) programmes out of financial markets for an indefinite period. The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) can offer the appropriate instrument by purchasing the ECB-held sovereign debt and issuing own liabilities to fund the purchases. The programme could develop gradually, over several years, to ensure the smooth rollover of expiring securities. As the purchases would be funded by the ESM’s own liabilities, backed by the sovereign holdings, ESM debt would become the long- sought-after European safe asset. The authors argue that this ESM action could be conducted without an ESM Treaty change. It would be premised on the legal framework of the revised Article 14 (precautionary financial assistance). The ESM could then gradually evolve into a debt management agency for the euro area. The transfer of much of ECB sovereign holdings to the ESM would restore monetary policy independence and ease any frictions in this field, thereby allowing EU policymakers’ focus to shift to the completion of the European Banking Union. This paper follows up on a CEPS Policy Insight of October 2020, in which Stefano Micossi argued that the increase in sovereign indebtedness under way in the euro area should be managed through collective policy actions.
本文的作者认为,重复2010年代初的紧缩政策与在大流行后的环境中保持足够的增长和主权债务的可持续性是不一致的。同样,大幅减记的债务重组过程只会扰乱脆弱的市场,并在最脆弱的成员国引发债务挤兑,迫使欧洲央行购买更多债务。因此,需要采取共同政策,使欧洲央行通过其资产购买计划(APP)和流行病紧急购买计划(PEPP)获得的主权债券无限期地远离金融市场。欧洲稳定机制(ESM)可以通过购买欧洲央行持有的主权债务并发行自己的债务来为购买提供资金,从而提供适当的工具。该计划可以在数年内逐步发展,以确保到期证券的顺利转期。由于购买行动将由ESM自身的债务提供资金,并由主权资产提供支持,因此ESM债券将成为人们追捧已久的欧洲安全资产。作者认为,这一ESM行动可以在不修改ESM条约的情况下进行。它将以订正的第14条(预防性财政援助)的法律框架为前提。然后,ESM可以逐渐演变成欧元区的债务管理机构。将欧洲央行的大部分主权资产转移到ESM将恢复货币政策的独立性,并缓解这一领域的任何摩擦,从而使欧盟政策制定者的注意力转向完成欧洲银行业联盟。本文是2020年10月CEPS政策洞察的后续,其中斯特凡诺·米科西(Stefano Micossi)认为,欧元区主权债务的增加应通过集体政策行动加以管理。
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引用次数: 0
Banche centrali, rischi climatici e finanza sostenibile [Central Banks, Climate Risks and Sustainable Finance] 中央银行、气候风险和可持续金融
Pub Date : 2021-03-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3852117
Enrico Bernardini, Ivan Faiella, A. Mistretta, Filippo Natoli, Luciano Lavecchia
Italian Abstract: Negli ultimi anni i cambiamenti climatici in corso e la transizione verso un modello di sviluppo economico sostenibile hanno assunto una rilevanza centrale per il sistema finanziario, chiamando in causa anche le banche centrali. Queste ultime, il cui interesse è testimoniato dai lavori del Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), stanno raccogliendo le sfide poste da tali fenomeni all'interno delle loro attività  istituzionali e di investimento. La Banca d'Italia, attraverso progetti di studio interni e partecipando ai maggiori tavoli di lavoro a livello nazionale e internazionale, contribuisce all'analisi dei rischi che i cambiamenti climatici comportano per il sistema economico e finanziario. Inoltre, in linea con i recenti sviluppi della finanza sostenibile, ha integrato criteri di sostenibilità  nelle proprie decisioni di investimento. Questo lavoro ha lo scopo di dar conto delle evidenze finora ottenute circa i rischi e le opportunità  legati ai cambiamenti climatici e alla finanza sostenibile, evidenziando quanto già  fatto e quanto ancora si possa fare per includere questi temi nell'agenda dei banchieri centrali.

English Abstract: In the last few years, the climate changes under way and the transition towards a sustainable economic development model have become of great importance for the financial system, involving central banks as well. The latter, whose interest is demonstrated by the work of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NFGS), are taking on the challenges posed by these events as part of their institutional and investment activities. By means of internal study projects and by taking part in the most important round tables at national and international level, the Bank of Italy is helping to analyse the risks that climate change creates for the economic and financial system. In addition, and in line with the recent developments in sustainable finance, it has also integrated sustainability criteria into its investment decisions. This paper aims to give an account of the evidence collected so far on the risks and opportunities linked to climate change and sustainable finance, highlighting what has already been done and what else can be done to put these issues on the agenda of central banks.
意大利摘要:近年来,当前的气候变化和向可持续经济发展模式的过渡已成为金融体系的中心问题,央行也参与其中。绿色金融系统网络(NGFS)的工作证明了后者的兴趣,它们正在自己的业务中应对这些现象带来的挑战机构和投资。意大利银行通过其内部研究项目和参与国家和国际一级的主要工作表,帮助分析气候变化对经济和金融系统造成的风险。此外,根据最近可持续金融的发展,它纳入了可持续发展标准在他们的投资决策中。这项工作的目的是解释迄今为止获得的关于风险和机会的证据与气候变化和可持续金融相关,强调已经发生的事情我们已经做到了,我们还能做些什么来将这些问题提上央行行长的议程。英语摘要:在过去几年里,气候变化和向可持续经济发展模式的过渡对金融体系变得非常重要,中央银行也变得非常重要。作为机构和投资活动的一部分,这些活动正面临着挑战。通过国内研究项目的手段,并在国家和国际层面上最重要的圆桌讨论中发挥作用,意大利银行正在帮助分析气候变化为经济和金融体系创造的风险。在可持续性金融方面的最新发展中,它也将可持续性标准纳入其投资决策。这份文件旨在为迄今为止收集的证据提供一个帐户,并将其与气候变化和可持续融资联系起来,重点说明已经做了什么,以及还能做些什么来将这些问题列入中央银行的议程。
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引用次数: 8
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Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal
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