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Central Banks in Parliaments: A Text Analysis of the Parliamentary Hearings of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve 议会中的中央银行:英国央行、欧洲央行和美联储议会听证会文本分析
Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3646000
Nicolò Fraccaroli, A. Giovannini
As the role of central banks expanded, demand for public scrutiny of their actions increased. This paper investigates whether parliamentary hearings, the main tool to hold central banks accountable, are fit for this purpose. Using text analysis, it detects the topics and sentiments in parliamentary hearings of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve from 1999 to 2019. It shows that, while central bank objectives play the most relevant role in determining the topic, unemployment is negatively associated with the focus of hearings on price stability. Sentiments are more negative when uncertainty is higher and when inflation is more distant from the central bank’s inflation aim. These findings suggest that parliamentarians use hearings to scrutinise the performance of central banks in line with their objectives and economic developments, but also that uncertainty is associated with a higher perceived risk of under-performance of central banks. JEL Classification: E02, E52, E58
随着央行作用的扩大,对其行为进行公众监督的要求也在增加。本文调查了议会听证会——央行问责的主要工具——是否适合这一目的。通过文本分析,它检测了1999年至2019年英国央行、欧洲央行和美联储议会听证会上的话题和情绪。这表明,虽然央行的目标在确定这一主题方面发挥着最相关的作用,但失业率与听证会对价格稳定的关注呈负相关。当不确定性更高、通胀离央行通胀目标更遥远时,市场情绪就会更加消极。这些发现表明,议员们利用听证会来根据他们的目标和经济发展来审查央行的表现,但也表明,不确定性与央行表现不佳的较高感知风险有关。JEL分类:E02, E52, E58
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引用次数: 9
A Brief Introduction to Human Capital Measures 人力资本措施简介
Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27561
Gang Liu, B. Fraumeni
There are six major measures of human capital, each of which covers at least 130 countries, all of which are described in this paper. These measures are of two distinct types: monetary and index-based. The two monetary versions are those by the World Bank (Lange et al., 2018) and by the United Nations Environmental Program and the Urban Institute of Kyushu University (Managi and Kumar et al., 2018). The four indicator versions are by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation of the University of Washington (Lim et al., 2018), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP, 2019), the World Bank (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank, 2018), and the World Economic Forum (World Economic Forum, 2017). In addition to describing each of these six measures, this paper compares them using ranking (Spearman) and level (Pearson) correlations. This paper was written as an introduction to a forthcoming book (Fraumeni, Barbara M., ed., Measuring Human Capital, Academic Press, Cambridge, MA) on human capital in order to help statisticians, researchers, analysts, policy-makers and government officials make an informed choice about which to use as this decision can matter.
人力资本有六种主要衡量标准,每一种都至少涵盖130个国家,本文对所有这些指标都进行了描述。这些措施有两种不同的类型:货币和基于指数的。两种货币版本分别是世界银行(Lange等人,2018)和联合国环境规划署和九州大学城市研究所(Managi和Kumar等人,2018)。这四个指标版本分别由华盛顿大学卫生计量与评估研究所(Lim等人,2018年)、联合国开发计划署(开发署,2019年)、世界银行(国际复兴开发银行和世界银行,2018年)和世界经济论坛(世界经济论坛,2017年)编制。除了描述这六种测量方法之外,本文还使用排名(Spearman)和水平(Pearson)相关性对它们进行了比较。本文是作为一本即将出版的关于人力资本的书(Fraumeni, Barbara M.主编,《衡量人力资本》,学术出版社,剑桥,马萨诸塞州)的引言而写的,目的是帮助统计学家、研究人员、分析师、政策制定者和政府官员做出明智的选择,因为这一决定可能会产生影响。
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引用次数: 12
Monetary Policy and COVID-19: Are We Out of the Woods Yet? 货币政策与COVID-19:我们是否已经走出困境?
Pub Date : 2020-06-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3635440
H. Kouam
The Corona virus has caused a synchronised cyclical slowdown, with disrupted supply chains and falling revenues causing a retrenchment in economic activity. In an attempt to quell the most negative effects of the virus, central banks have lowered policy rates to varying degrees, absent the ECB, with asset purchases designed to bolster liquidity in financial markets and reduce the costs of bankruptcy. This paper finds heterogeneity in central bank’s COVID-19 response, with the provisions of liquidity for businesses, asset purchases and credit-specific COVID-19 programmes implemented across a majority of advanced economies. As the virus intensified, central banks have prioritised economic growth and an ample supply liquidity in financial markets over inflation outcomes. This paper finds that such measures will support the medium-term outlook, cause a signify ant increase in central bank’s balance sheet and avert a protracted financial and economic crisis.
冠状病毒造成了同步的周期性放缓,供应链中断和收入下降导致经济活动萎缩。为了平息病毒的最负面影响,各国央行在欧洲央行缺席的情况下,不同程度地降低了政策利率,通过购买资产来增强金融市场的流动性,降低破产成本。本文发现,央行应对COVID-19的措施存在异质性,大多数发达经济体都实施了向企业提供流动性、购买资产和针对COVID-19的信贷计划。随着疫情加剧,各国央行将经济增长和金融市场的充足流动性供应置于通胀结果之上。本文发现,这些措施将支持中期前景,导致央行资产负债表的显着大幅增加,并避免长期的金融和经济危机。
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引用次数: 0
Investment Funds, Monetary Policy, and the Global Financial Cycle 投资基金、货币政策和全球金融周期
Pub Date : 2020-06-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3636846
Christoph Kaufmann
This paper examines the role of international investment funds in the transmission of global financial conditions to the euro area using structural Bayesian vector auto regressions. While cross-border banking sector capital flows receded significantly in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, portfolio flows from investors actively searching for yield on financial markets world-wide gained importance during the post-crisis “second phase of global liquidity”(Shin 2013). The analysis presented in this paper shows that a loosening of US monetary policy leads to higher investment fund inflows to equities and debt globally. Focussing on the euro area, these inflows not only imply elevated asset prices, but also coincide with increased debt and equity issuance. The findings demonstrate the growing importance of non-bank financial intermediation over the past decade and hold important policy implications for monetary and financial stability.
本文利用结构贝叶斯向量自动回归分析了国际投资基金在全球金融状况向欧元区传导中的作用。虽然跨境银行业资本流动在全球金融危机之后显著减少,但在危机后的“全球流动性第二阶段”中,全球范围内积极寻求金融市场收益的投资者的投资组合流动变得重要起来(Shin 2013)。本文的分析表明,美国货币政策的放松,将导致更多的投资资金流入全球股市和债市。以欧元区为例,这些资金流入不仅意味着资产价格上涨,而且与债券和股票发行的增加相吻合。研究结果表明,在过去十年中,非银行金融中介的重要性日益增加,对货币和金融稳定具有重要的政策意义。
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引用次数: 11
Inflation: The Next Threat? 通货膨胀:下一个威胁?
Pub Date : 2020-06-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3851979
J. Castañeda, T. Congdon
The policy reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic will increase budget deficits massively in the world’s leading countries. The deficits will largely be monetised, with heavy state borrowing from both national central banks and commercial banks. The monetisation of budget deficits, combined with official support for emergency bank lending to cash-strained corporates, is leading to extremely high growth rates of the quantity of money. The crisis has shown again that, under fiat monetary systems, the state can create as much as money as it wants. By mid- or late 2021, the pandemic should be under control, and a big bounce-back in aggregate demand and output is to be envisaged. The extremely high growth rates of money observed will instigate an inflationary boom. The scale of the boom will be conditioned by the speed of money growth in the rest of 2020 and in early 2021. Central banks seem heedless of the inflation risks inherent in monetary financing of the growing government deficits. Following the so-called "New Keynesian Model" consensus, their economists ignore changes in the quantity of money and consider monetary policy defined exclusively by interest rates, with a narrow focus on the central bank policy rate, long-term interest rates, and the yield curve. The quantity theory of money today provides a theoretical framework, which relates trends in money growth to changes in inflation and nominal GDP over the medium and long terms. A condition for the return of inflation to current target levels is that the rate of money growth is reduced back towards annual rates of increase of about 6% or less.
对COVID-19大流行的政策反应将大幅增加世界主要国家的预算赤字。赤字将在很大程度上货币化,政府将从各国央行和商业银行大举借款。将预算赤字货币化,再加上官方支持银行向现金紧张的企业提供紧急贷款,正导致货币数量以极高的速度增长。这场危机再次表明,在法定货币体系下,国家可以随心所欲地创造货币。到2021年年中或年底,疫情应得到控制,预计总需求和产出将出现大幅反弹。极高的货币增长率将引发通货膨胀。繁荣的规模将取决于2020年剩余时间和2021年初的货币增长速度。各国央行似乎忽视了为不断增长的政府赤字提供货币融资所固有的通胀风险。遵循所谓的“新凯恩斯主义模型”共识,他们的经济学家忽略了货币数量的变化,认为货币政策完全由利率决定,狭隘地关注中央银行政策利率、长期利率和收益率曲线。今天的货币数量理论提供了一个理论框架,将货币增长趋势与中长期通货膨胀和名义GDP的变化联系起来。通货膨胀恢复到当前目标水平的一个条件是货币增长率回落到6%或更低的年增长率。
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引用次数: 3
Central Bank Independence and Systemic Risk 中央银行独立性与系统性风险
Pub Date : 2020-06-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3641817
A. Andrieș, A. Podpiera, N. Sprincean
We investigate the relationship of central bank independence and banks’ systemic risk measures. Our results support the case for central bank independence, revealing that central bank independence has a robust, negative, and significant impact on the contribution and exposure of a bank to systemic risk. Moreover, the impact of central bank independence is similar for the stand-alone risk of individual banks. Secondarily, we study how the central bank independence affects the impact of selected country and banking system indicators on these systemic measures. The results show that central bank independence may exacerbate the effect of a crisis on the contribution of banks to systemic risk. However, central bank independence seems to mitigate the harmful effect of a bank’s high market power on its systemic risk contribution.
我们研究了中央银行独立性与银行系统性风险措施的关系。我们的研究结果支持中央银行独立性,揭示了中央银行独立性对银行系统性风险的贡献和暴露具有强大的、负面的和显著的影响。此外,央行独立性对单个银行的独立风险的影响是类似的。其次,我们研究了央行独立性如何影响选定的国家和银行体系指标对这些系统性措施的影响。结果表明,央行独立性可能会加剧危机对银行系统性风险贡献的影响。然而,中央银行的独立性似乎减轻了银行的高市场力量对其系统风险贡献的有害影响。
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引用次数: 8
Sovereign Bond Market Spillovers from Crisis-Time Developments in Greece 希腊危机时期事态发展对主权债券市场的溢出效应
Pub Date : 2020-06-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3666217
Daragh Clancy, Carmine Gabriele, Diana Žigraiová
The systemic importance of a country is a crucial component in the European Stability Mechanism's assessment of financial assistance requests. However, disentangling the effect of developments in one country on other countries in real time is fraught with difficulties. Using empirical methods that provide ex-ante measures of risk exposure, we find that changes in the tail risks of Greek sovereign bond returns resulted in immediate and significant cross-market spillovers to other euro area sovereign bond returns. Our approach provides real-time insights on evolving cross-market interdependencies, such as Germany gradually becoming a safe haven from Greece. We confirm that developments in Greece drive our tail-risk results by linking them to a newly developed intra-day event database. This approach also allows us to provide a more intuitive quantification of the spillovers emanating from Greece. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that developments in Greece significantly affected other euro area sovereign bond markets over and beyond global, euro area and country-specific factors. Our results provide evidence for the systemic importance of Greece throughout the European sovereign debt crisis.
一个国家的系统重要性是欧洲稳定机制评估财政援助请求的关键组成部分。然而,实时地分析一个国家的事态发展对其他国家的影响充满了困难。利用提供风险敞口事前度量的实证方法,我们发现希腊主权债券回报尾部风险的变化对其他欧元区主权债券回报产生了直接且显著的跨市场溢出效应。我们的方法提供了对不断演变的跨市场相互依赖关系的实时洞察,例如德国逐渐成为希腊的避风港。我们确认,通过将希腊的事态发展与新开发的日内事件数据库联系起来,推动了我们的尾部风险结果。这种方法还使我们能够更直观地量化希腊的溢出效应。综上所述,我们的研究结果表明,希腊的事态发展显著影响了其他欧元区主权债券市场,超出了全球、欧元区和特定国家的因素。我们的研究结果为希腊在整个欧洲主权债务危机中的系统重要性提供了证据。
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引用次数: 2
A Jackknife Model Averaging Analysis of RMB Misalignment Estimates 人民币偏差估计的折刀模型平均分析
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.1142/S1793993320500076
Y. Cheung, Wenhao Wang
We adopt the Jackknife Model Averaging (JMA) technique to conduct a meta-regression analysis of 925 renminbi (RMB) misalignment estimates generated by 69 studies. The JMA method accounts for model selection and sampling uncertainties, and allows for non-nested model specifications and heteroskedasticity in assessing effects of study characteristics. The RMB misalignment estimates are found to be systematically affected by the choices of data, the theoretical setup and the empirical strategy, in addition to publication attributes of these studies. These study characteristic effects are quite robust to the choice of benchmark study characteristics, to alternative model averaging methods including the heteroskedasticity-robust Mallows approach, the information criterion approach, and the Bayesian model averaging. In evaluating the probabilistic property of RMB misalignment estimates implied by hypothetical composites of study characteristics, we find the evidence of a misaligned RMB, in general, is weak.
本文采用折刀模型平均(JMA)技术对69项研究产生的925元人民币的偏差估计进行了元回归分析。JMA方法考虑了模型选择和抽样的不确定性,并允许在评估研究特征的影响时使用非嵌套模型规范和异方差。研究发现,除了研究的发表属性外,数据选择、理论设置和实证策略也会系统性地影响人民币汇率失调估计。这些研究特征效应对基准研究特征的选择、模型平均方法(包括异方差鲁棒Mallows方法、信息准则方法和贝叶斯模型平均)具有相当的鲁棒性。在评估由研究特征的假设组合所隐含的人民币失调估计的概率性质时,我们发现人民币失调的证据通常很弱。
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引用次数: 3
The Great Disconnect: The Decoupling of Wage and Price Inflation in Japan 巨大的脱节:日本工资和物价通胀的脱钩
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27332
T. Hoshi, A. Kashyap
We take some well-known observations about the structure of the Japanese labor market and add new evidence about how it has evolved to study inflation in Japan. Our key finding is that labor market dynamics shifted after 1998 so that correlations between labor market tightness and wages weakened noticeably. This change was accompanied in a break in the relationship between wages and prices, so wage inflation has become a much less important determinant of price inflation.
我们对日本劳动力市场结构进行了一些众所周知的观察,并添加了新的证据,说明它是如何演变的,以研究日本的通货膨胀。我们的主要发现是,劳动力市场动态在1998年之后发生了变化,因此劳动力市场紧张程度与工资之间的相关性明显减弱。这一变化伴随着工资和价格之间关系的破裂,因此工资通胀已成为价格通胀的一个不那么重要的决定因素。
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引用次数: 17
A Survey of Research on Retail Central Bank Digital Currency 零售央行数字货币研究综述
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3639760
J. Kiff, Jihad Alwazir, Sonja Davidovic, Aquiles Farias, Ashraf Khan, Tanai Khiaonarong, Majid Malaika, Hunter Monroe, Nobuyasu Sugimoto, Hervé Tourpe, Peter Zhou
This paper examines key considerations around central bank digital currency (CBDC) foruse by the general public, based on a comprehensive review of recent research, centralbank experiments, and ongoing discussions among stakeholders. It looks at the reasonswhy central banks are exploring retail CBDC issuance, policy and design considerations;legal, governance and regulatory perspectives; plus cybersecurity and other riskconsiderations. This paper makes a contribution to the CBDC literature by suggesting astructured framework to organize discussions on whether or not to issue CBDC, with anoperational focus and a project management perspective.
本文基于对近期研究、央行实验和利益相关者之间正在进行的讨论的全面回顾,探讨了公众使用中央银行数字货币(CBDC)的关键考虑因素。它探讨了央行探索零售CBDC发行的原因、政策和设计考虑、法律、治理和监管角度;再加上网络安全和其他风险考虑。本文通过提出一个结构化框架来组织关于是否发行CBDC的讨论,并从运营重点和项目管理的角度对CBDC文献做出了贡献。
{"title":"A Survey of Research on Retail Central Bank Digital Currency","authors":"J. Kiff, Jihad Alwazir, Sonja Davidovic, Aquiles Farias, Ashraf Khan, Tanai Khiaonarong, Majid Malaika, Hunter Monroe, Nobuyasu Sugimoto, Hervé Tourpe, Peter Zhou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3639760","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3639760","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines key considerations around central bank digital currency (CBDC) for\u0000use by the general public, based on a comprehensive review of recent research, central\u0000bank experiments, and ongoing discussions among stakeholders. It looks at the reasons\u0000why central banks are exploring retail CBDC issuance, policy and design considerations;\u0000legal, governance and regulatory perspectives; plus cybersecurity and other risk\u0000considerations. This paper makes a contribution to the CBDC literature by suggesting a\u0000structured framework to organize discussions on whether or not to issue CBDC, with an\u0000operational focus and a project management perspective.","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82807815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 109
期刊
Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal
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