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Identifying the Effect of Parenthood on Labor Force Participation: A Gender Comparison 父母身份对劳动力参与的影响:一个性别比较
Seyyed Ali Zeytoon Nejad Moosavian
Identifying the factors that influence labor force participation could elucidate how individuals arrive at their labor supply decisions, whose understanding is, in turn, of crucial importance in analyzing how the supply side of the labor market functions. This paper investigates the effect of parenthood status on Labor Force Participation (LFP) decisions using an individual-level fixed-effects identification strategy. The differences across individuals and over time in having or not having children as well as being or not being in the labor force provide the variation needed to assess the association between individuals’ LFP behavior and parenthood. Parenthood could have different impacts on mothers than it would on fathers. In order to look at the causal effect of maternity and paternity on LFP separately, the data is disaggregated by gender. To this end, the effect of a change in the parenthood status can be measured using individual-level fixed-effects to account for time-invariant characteristics of individuals becoming a parent. The primary data source used is the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS). Considering the nature of LFP variable, this paper employs Binary Response Models (BRMs) to estimate LFP equations using individual-level micro data. The findings of the study show that parenthood has a negative overall effect on LFP. However, paternity has a significant positive effect on the likelihood of being in the labor force, whilst maternity has a significant negative impact of LFP. In addition, the results imply that the effect of parenthood on LFP has been fading away over time, regardless of the gender of parents. These two pieces of evidence precisely map onto the theoretical predictions made by the related mainstream economic theories (the traditional neoclassical theory of labor supply as well as Becker’s household production model). These results are robust across different models specified and various estimation methods employed. These findings can contribute to the existing knowledge about the effect of parenthood on LFP decisions made in the US at an individual and behavioral level, and also aid in the shaping of economic policies and interventions to enhance the status of labor force participation in the economy. In the end, some potential threats to the identification of this causal effect, such as endogeneity of fertility, and some possible strategies to deal with those threats are discussed.
确定影响劳动力参与的因素可以阐明个人如何做出劳动力供给决策,而对这些因素的理解反过来又对分析劳动力市场的供给侧如何运作至关重要。本文采用个体层面的固定效应识别策略,研究了父母身份对劳动力参与决策的影响。个体之间和时间上的差异,是否有孩子以及是否在劳动力市场上的差异,提供了评估个体LFP行为与亲子关系之间关系所需的差异。为人父母对母亲和父亲的影响可能不同。为了分别观察母性和父性对LFP的因果影响,数据按性别分类。为此,可以使用个人层面的固定效应来衡量父母身份变化的影响,以解释个人成为父母的时不变特征。使用的主要数据来源是国家纵向调查(NLS)。考虑到LFP变量的性质,本文采用二元响应模型(Binary Response Models, BRMs)利用个体层面的微观数据估计LFP方程。研究结果表明,父母身份对LFP的总体影响是负面的。然而,父亲身份对劳动力的可能性有显著的积极影响,而母亲身份对LFP有显著的负面影响。此外,研究结果表明,无论父母的性别如何,父母身份对LFP的影响都在随着时间的推移而逐渐消失。这两项证据与相关主流经济理论(传统的新古典劳动供给理论和贝克尔的家庭生产模型)的理论预测相吻合。这些结果在指定的不同模型和采用的各种估计方法中都是稳健的。这些发现有助于在个人和行为层面上了解父母身份对美国LFP决策的影响,并有助于制定经济政策和干预措施,以提高劳动力参与经济的地位。最后,讨论了确定这一因果关系的一些潜在威胁,如生育率的内生性,以及应对这些威胁的一些可能的策略。
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引用次数: 0
Household Consumption in Japan - Role of Income and Asset Developments 日本家庭消费——收入和资产发展的作用
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781475573084.001.A001
E. Vihriälä
We study Japanese household consumption at a disaggregated level focusing on the role of income and asset dynamics. Stagnation of real per capita consumption is widespread across labor market groups, age groups and regions. Consumption-to-income ratios have been mildly increasing due to the rising share of pensioners with significant assets. Evidence therefore suggests that assets have become more important in financing consumption. However, the short-term consumption dynamics remain quite sensitive to income growth but not to asset market movements.
我们研究了日本家庭消费的分类水平,重点关注收入和资产动态的作用。实际人均消费停滞在劳动力市场各群体、各年龄组和各地区普遍存在。由于拥有大量资产的养老金领取者的比例不断上升,消费收入比一直在小幅上升。因此,有证据表明,资产在为消费融资方面变得更加重要。然而,短期消费动态仍然对收入增长相当敏感,而对资产市场走势则不敏感。
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引用次数: 2
Intra-Household Allocation of Non-Mandatory Retirement Savings 非强制性退休储蓄的家庭内部分配
Christoph Metzger
Traditionally, households have been seen as acting as a single unit when it comes to savings. Although this might be correct for some parts of household savings, we question the correctness of the unitary model with respect to non-mandatory retirement savings. To answer this question we analyze the intra-household allocation of retirement savings between partners in Germany. First, the decision to save at all is analyzed using a seemingly unrelated bivariate probit model, showing that the possession of retirement saving accounts among spouses is positively correlated, hinting at a 'crowding-in' of saving accounts. However, this could be only due to some tax reasons. Thus, we analyze additionally the interaction of savings between spouses using three-stage least squares, allowing for endogeneity between the spouse's savings. These results additionally show a 'crowding-in' of total retirement saving amounts between spouses, probably due to some 'recognition effect'. The unitary model of household decision making can thus be rejected with respect to retirement savings.
传统上,在储蓄方面,家庭一直被视为一个整体。虽然这对于家庭储蓄的某些部分可能是正确的,但我们质疑关于非强制性退休储蓄的单一模型的正确性。为了回答这个问题,我们分析了德国夫妻之间家庭内部退休储蓄的分配。首先,我们使用一个看似无关的双变量概率模型对是否存钱的决定进行了分析,结果显示,配偶之间持有退休储蓄账户的情况呈正相关,这暗示着储蓄账户的“涌入”。然而,这可能只是由于一些税收原因。因此,我们使用三阶段最小二乘法分析配偶之间储蓄的相互作用,允许配偶储蓄之间的内生性。这些结果还表明,配偶之间的退休储蓄总额存在“挤入”现象,这可能是由于某种“认可效应”。因此,就退休储蓄而言,家庭决策的单一模型可以被拒绝。
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引用次数: 6
The Labour Market Effect of Immigration: Accounting for Effective Immigrant Work Experience in New Zealand 移民的劳动力市场效应:考虑新西兰有效移民工作经验
Michael M. H. Tse, S. Maani
This guide, updated for the 2016-17 job market season, describes the U.S. academic market for new Ph.D. economists and offers advice on conducting an academic job search. It provides data, reports findings from published papers, describes practical details, and includes links to online resources. Topics addressed include: preparing to go on the market; applying for academic jobs; the JOE Network, which is the AEA's electronic clearinghouse for the job market; signaling; interviewing at the ASSA meetings; campus visits; the secondary market scramble; offers and negotiating; getting off to a good start as an assistant professor; diversity; and dual job searches.
这份指南针对2016- 2017年的就业市场季进行了更新,描述了美国的学术市场对新博士经济学家的需求,并提供了进行学术求职的建议。它提供数据,报告发表论文的发现,描述实际细节,并包括到在线资源的链接。讨论的主题包括:准备上市;申请学术工作;JOE网络,这是AEA的就业市场电子信息交换所;信号;在ASSA会议上进行面试;校园访问;二级市场争抢;提议和谈判;作为助理教授有一个良好的开端;多样性;还有双重求职。
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引用次数: 0
Fixed-Term Employment and Fertility: Evidence from German Micro Data 固定期限就业与生育率:来自德国微观数据的证据
Pub Date : 2016-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/CESIFO/IFV014
W. Auer, Natalia Weißhaar
We study the short- to medium-run effects of starting a career on a fixed-term contract on subsequent fertility outcomes. We focus on the career start since we expect that temporary contracts and their inherent economic uncertainty imply a path dependency which might have spill-over effects on other domains of life. Our empirical analysis is based on rich data from the German Socio-Economic Panel which provides comprehensive information about individuals' labour market history as well as fertility behaviour. Our main results are: Women (i) tend to postpone their first birth due to fixed-term employment at labour market entry and (ii) reduce the number of children in the first 10 years after graduation. These associations are strongest in the subsample of native women with at least vocational training. (iii) In contrast, we find no significant correlations for men. We argue that these findings are robust to potential endogeneity threats.
我们研究了在固定期限合同中开始职业生涯对随后生育结果的中短期影响。我们关注职业生涯的开始,因为我们认为临时合同及其内在的经济不确定性意味着一种路径依赖,这可能会对生活的其他领域产生溢出效应。我们的实证分析基于德国社会经济小组的丰富数据,该小组提供了有关个人劳动力市场历史以及生育行为的全面信息。我们的主要结果是:女性(i)由于进入劳动力市场时的固定就业而倾向于推迟生育第一个孩子;(ii)在毕业后的前10年里减少了孩子的数量。这些联系在至少接受过职业培训的土著妇女的子样本中最为明显。(iii)相反,我们发现男性之间没有显著的相关性。我们认为,这些发现是稳健的潜在内生性威胁。
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引用次数: 44
Labor Outcomes During the Transition from Adolescence to Adulthood: The Role of Personality, Cognition, and Shocks in Madagascar 从青春期过渡到成年期的劳动结果:马达加斯加的人格、认知和冲击的作用
D. Sahn, Kira M Villa
There is growing evidence that noncognitive skills affect economic, behavioral, and demographic outcomes in the developed world. However, little such evidence exists from developing countries. This paper estimates the joint effect of five specific personality traits and cognition on a sequence of labor market outcomes for a sample of Malagasy individuals as they transition from adolescence to young adulthood. Specifically we model these individuals' age of entry into the labor market, labor market sectoral selection, and within sector earnings. The personality traits we examine are the Big Five Personality Traits: Openness to Experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. Additionally, we look at how these traits interact with household-level shocks in determining their labor market entry decisions. We find that personality, as well as cognitive test scores, affect these outcomes of interest, and that their impact on labor supply is, in part, a function of how individuals respond to exogenous shocks.
越来越多的证据表明,非认知技能会影响发达国家的经济、行为和人口结果。然而,发展中国家几乎没有这样的证据。本文估计了五种特定的人格特质和认知对马达加斯加人从青春期过渡到青年期的一系列劳动力市场结果的共同影响。具体来说,我们对这些人进入劳动力市场的年龄、劳动力市场部门选择和部门内收入进行了建模。我们研究的人格特征是五大人格特征:开放性、严谨性、外向性、宜人性和神经质。此外,我们还研究了这些特征如何与家庭层面的冲击相互作用,以决定他们进入劳动力市场的决定。我们发现,个性以及认知测试分数会影响这些兴趣结果,而它们对劳动力供给的影响,在一定程度上是个体如何应对外生冲击的函数。
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引用次数: 2
Housing Demand, Cost-of-Living Inequality, and the Affordability Crisis 住房需求、生活成本不平等和负担能力危机
David Albouy, Gabriel Ehrlich, Yingyi Liu
Since 1970, housing's relative price, share of expenditure, and ``unaffordability'' have all grown. We estimate housing demand using a novel compensated framework over space and an uncompensated framework over time. Our specifications pass tests imposed by rationality and household mobility. Housing demand is income and price inelastic, and appears to fall with household size. We provide a numerical non-homothetic constant elasticity of substitution utility function for improved quantitative modeling. An ideal cost-of-living index demonstrates that the poor have been disproportionately impacted by rising relative rents, which have greatly amplified increases in real income inequality.
自1970年以来,住房的相对价格、支出份额和“负担能力”都在增长。我们使用一种新的空间补偿框架和一种时间补偿框架来估计住房需求。我们的规格通过了合理性和家庭流动性的检验。住房需求是收入和价格无弹性的,似乎随着家庭规模的下降而下降。为了改进定量建模,我们提出了一个非齐次的常数弹性替代效用函数。理想的生活成本指数表明,穷人受到相对租金上涨的不成比例的影响,这大大放大了实际收入不平等的扩大。
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引用次数: 85
Is Employment Polarization Creating More Over-Educated Workers? Evidence from Germany, Spain, Sweden and UK 就业两极分化会产生更多受教育程度过高的工人吗?来自德国、西班牙、瑞典和英国的证据
Sudipa Sarkar
This study explores if declining employment in routine middle-skilled jobs as a result of technological change is creating more over-educated workers in the low skilled non-routine manual jobs. Using data from European Labour Force Survey covering the period from 1999 to 2007, the paper analyses employment change and over-education in four countries of Europe – Germany, Spain, Sweden and UK. The results suggest higher incidence of over-education in polarized countries – Spain and UK as compared to countries with employment upgrading – Germany and Sweden. It also reveals that in Spain and UK, over-education is prominent and increasing over time in the low paid jobs which are mostly non-routine manual in nature, while Germany and Sweden have more over-educated workers in middle skilled routine and high skilled analytical jobs. I find similar results in both descriptive and job fixed effects regressions.
这项研究探讨了由于技术变革而导致的常规中等技能工作岗位的就业下降,是否会在低技能非常规体力工作中创造更多受教育程度过高的工人。本文利用1999年至2007年欧洲劳动力调查的数据,分析了德国、西班牙、瑞典和英国四个欧洲国家的就业变化和过度教育。结果表明,与就业升级的国家——德国和瑞典相比,在两极分化的国家——西班牙和英国,过度教育的发生率更高。研究还表明,在西班牙和英国,在低薪工作中,教育过度是突出的,而且随着时间的推移,这些工作主要是非常规的手工工作,而德国和瑞典在中等技能的常规工作和高技能的分析工作中,教育过度的工人更多。我在描述性和工作固定效应回归中都发现了类似的结果。
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引用次数: 2
Strategies of Financial Behaviour of the Population: Under the Pressure of 'News-Driven Economy' “新闻经济”压力下的人口金融行为策略
A. Polyakova
Analysis of the dynamics of lending and household deposits allows to find interesting models of consumer behaviour from the perspective of consumption and savings balance. They fit into four provisional, sequentially alternating types of population’s activity, which often depend on the number and content of information in the “news-driven economy”. In these circumstances, archaic strategies of financial behaviour gain ground.
通过对贷款和家庭存款动态的分析,可以从消费和储蓄平衡的角度找到有趣的消费者行为模型。它们符合四种临时的、顺序交替的人口活动类型,这些活动通常取决于“新闻驱动型经济”中信息的数量和内容。在这种情况下,古老的金融行为策略开始流行起来。
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引用次数: 0
Short- and Long-Term Effects of a Child-Labor Ban 禁止童工的短期和长期影响
Pub Date : 2016-08-15 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7796
Caio Piza, André Portela Souza
This is the first study to investigate the short- and long-term causal effects of a child-labor ban. The study explores the law that increased the minimum employment age from 14 to 16 in Brazil in 1998, and uncovers its impact on time allocated to schooling and work in the short term and on school attainment and labor market outcomes in the long term. The analysis uses cross-sectional data from 1998 to 2014, and applies a fuzzy regression discontinuity design to estimate the impact of the ban at different points of individuals’ lifecycles. The estimates show that the ban reduced the incidence of boys in paid work activities by 4 percentage points or 27 percent. The study finds that the fall in child labor is mostly explained by the change in the proportions of boys working for pay and studying, and observes an increase in the proportion of boys only studying as a consequence. The results suggest that the ban reduced boys’ participation in the labor force. The study follows the same cohort affected by the ban over the years, and finds that the short-term effects persisted until 2003 when the boys turned 18. The study pooled data from 2007 to 2014 to check whether the ban affected individuals’ stock of human capital and labor market outcomes. The estimates suggest that the ban did not have long-term effects for the whole cohort, but found some indication that it did negatively affect the log earnings of individuals at the lower tail of the earnings distribution.
这是第一个调查童工禁令的短期和长期因果影响的研究。本研究探讨了1998年巴西将最低就业年龄从14岁提高到16岁的法律,并揭示了该法律短期内对上学和工作时间分配的影响,以及长期内对学业成绩和劳动力市场结果的影响。分析使用1998年至2014年的横截面数据,并采用模糊回归不连续设计来估计禁令在个人生命周期不同点的影响。估计表明,这项禁令将男孩从事有偿工作的比例降低了4个百分点,即27%。研究发现,童工数量的下降主要是由于男孩工作和学习的比例发生了变化,并观察到只学习的男孩比例的增加。研究结果表明,这一禁令降低了男孩的劳动力参与率。这项研究对受禁令影响的同一群人进行了多年的跟踪调查,发现禁令的短期影响一直持续到2003年这些男孩年满18岁。该研究汇集了2007年至2014年的数据,以检验该禁令是否影响了个人的人力资本存量和劳动力市场结果。估计表明,禁令并没有对整个群体产生长期影响,但发现一些迹象表明,它确实对收入分布低端个体的对数收入产生了负面影响。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
Econometric Modeling: Microeconometric Models of Household Behavior eJournal
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