Development of coastal areas in Japan for various land uses since the 1960s has contributed to industrial upgrades and improved the efficiency of transportation networks. However, there are concerns about the vulnerability of developments on alluvial plains and reclaimed lands to geological events, like ground subsidence due to liquefaction during large earthquakes. Realistic assessment of earthquake and tsunami hazards and evaluation of possible countermeasures require accurate estimation of the amount of subsidence that can be expected from liquefaction at coastal and riverside sites supporting various structures. In this study, to evaluate the amount a river embankment structure might be expected to settle as a result of strong motion from an assumed Nankai Trough great earthquake, we conducted a numerical simulation using the soil–water coupled finite deformation analysis code GEOASIA. We then investigated the effect of the estimated embankment subsidence on tsunami inundation, which was simulated by using nonlinear shallow-water equations and a grid spacing as fine as 3.3 m. The influence of urban structures on the inundated area was taken into account by using a structure-embedded elevation model (SEM). The results showed that subsidence of river embankments and the collapse of parapet walls on top of them would increase both the depth and area of inundation caused by a tsunami triggered by a Nankai Trough scenario earthquake. Our findings underscore the importance of evaluating not only earthquake resistance but also vulnerability of coastal and riverside structures to strong motion in tsunami hazard analyses. Furthermore, the importance of tsunami inundation analysis using a SEM for predicting the behavior of tsunami flotsam in urban areas was demonstrated.
{"title":"Tsunami hazard evaluation of river embankment structures incorporating their vulnerability to seismic strong motion","authors":"Kentaro Imai, Kentaro Nakai, Takashi Hirai, Toshihiro Noda, Nobuo Arai, Shunji Iwama, Hiroyuki Iwase, Toshitaka Baba","doi":"10.1177/87552930241237815","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241237815","url":null,"abstract":"Development of coastal areas in Japan for various land uses since the 1960s has contributed to industrial upgrades and improved the efficiency of transportation networks. However, there are concerns about the vulnerability of developments on alluvial plains and reclaimed lands to geological events, like ground subsidence due to liquefaction during large earthquakes. Realistic assessment of earthquake and tsunami hazards and evaluation of possible countermeasures require accurate estimation of the amount of subsidence that can be expected from liquefaction at coastal and riverside sites supporting various structures. In this study, to evaluate the amount a river embankment structure might be expected to settle as a result of strong motion from an assumed Nankai Trough great earthquake, we conducted a numerical simulation using the soil–water coupled finite deformation analysis code GEOASIA. We then investigated the effect of the estimated embankment subsidence on tsunami inundation, which was simulated by using nonlinear shallow-water equations and a grid spacing as fine as 3.3 m. The influence of urban structures on the inundated area was taken into account by using a structure-embedded elevation model (SEM). The results showed that subsidence of river embankments and the collapse of parapet walls on top of them would increase both the depth and area of inundation caused by a tsunami triggered by a Nankai Trough scenario earthquake. Our findings underscore the importance of evaluating not only earthquake resistance but also vulnerability of coastal and riverside structures to strong motion in tsunami hazard analyses. Furthermore, the importance of tsunami inundation analysis using a SEM for predicting the behavior of tsunami flotsam in urban areas was demonstrated.","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"68 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140311708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-25DOI: 10.1177/87552930241232932
{"title":"WITHDRAWAL – Administrative Duplicate Publication: A Call to Refocus Research Goals for the Development of Seismic Optimization Methods","authors":"","doi":"10.1177/87552930241232932","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241232932","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140300564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-25DOI: 10.1177/87552930241232910
{"title":"WITHDRAWAL – Administrative Duplicate Publication: From Source to Building Fragility: Post-event Assessment of the 2013 M7.1 Bohol Philippines Earthquake","authors":"","doi":"10.1177/87552930241232910","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241232910","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140300480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-25DOI: 10.1177/87552930241232913
{"title":"WITHDRAWAL – Administrative Duplicate Publication: Discussion of What is the Smallest Earthquake Magnitude that Needs to be Considered in Assessing Liquefaction Hazard? by Roger M.W. Musson","authors":"","doi":"10.1177/87552930241232913","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241232913","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140300563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-23DOI: 10.1177/87552930241232708
Kyle Withers, Morgan Moschetti, Peter Powers, Mark Petersen, Rob Graves, Brad T Aagaard, Annemarie Baltay, Nicolas Luco, Erin Wirth, Sanaz Rezaeian, Eric Thompson
Several rupture directivity models (DMs) have been developed in recent years to describe the near-source spatial variations in ground-motion amplitudes related to propagation of rupture along the fault. We recently organized an effort toward incorporating these directivity effects into the US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), by first evaluating the community’s work and potential methods to implement directivity adjustments into probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Guided by this evaluation and comparison among the considered DMs, we selected an approach that can be readily implemented into the USGS hazard software, which provides an azimuthally varying adjustment to the median ground motion and its aleatory variability. This method allows assessment of the impact on hazard levels and provides a platform to test the DM amplification predictions using a generalized coordinate system, necessary for consistent calculation of source-to-site distance terms for complex ruptures. We give examples of the directivity-related impact on hazard, progressing from a simple, hypothetical rupture, to more complex fault systems, composed of multiple rupture segments and sources. The directivity adjustments were constrained to strike–slip faulting, where DMs have good agreement. We find that rupture directivity adjustments using a simple median and aleatory adjustment approach can affect hazard both from a site-specific perspective and on a regional scale, increasing ground motions off the end of the fault trace up to 30%–40% and potentially reducing it for sites along strike. Statewide hazard maps of California show that the change in shaking along major faults can be a factor to consider for assessing long-period [Formula: see text] near-source effects within the USGS NSHM going forward, reaching up to 10%–20%. Finally, we suggest consideration of minimum parameter ranges and baseline requirements as future DMs are developed to minimize single approach adaptations to enable more consistent application within both ground motion and hazard studies.
{"title":"Integration of rupture directivity models for the US National Seismic Hazard Model","authors":"Kyle Withers, Morgan Moschetti, Peter Powers, Mark Petersen, Rob Graves, Brad T Aagaard, Annemarie Baltay, Nicolas Luco, Erin Wirth, Sanaz Rezaeian, Eric Thompson","doi":"10.1177/87552930241232708","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241232708","url":null,"abstract":"Several rupture directivity models (DMs) have been developed in recent years to describe the near-source spatial variations in ground-motion amplitudes related to propagation of rupture along the fault. We recently organized an effort toward incorporating these directivity effects into the US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), by first evaluating the community’s work and potential methods to implement directivity adjustments into probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Guided by this evaluation and comparison among the considered DMs, we selected an approach that can be readily implemented into the USGS hazard software, which provides an azimuthally varying adjustment to the median ground motion and its aleatory variability. This method allows assessment of the impact on hazard levels and provides a platform to test the DM amplification predictions using a generalized coordinate system, necessary for consistent calculation of source-to-site distance terms for complex ruptures. We give examples of the directivity-related impact on hazard, progressing from a simple, hypothetical rupture, to more complex fault systems, composed of multiple rupture segments and sources. The directivity adjustments were constrained to strike–slip faulting, where DMs have good agreement. We find that rupture directivity adjustments using a simple median and aleatory adjustment approach can affect hazard both from a site-specific perspective and on a regional scale, increasing ground motions off the end of the fault trace up to 30%–40% and potentially reducing it for sites along strike. Statewide hazard maps of California show that the change in shaking along major faults can be a factor to consider for assessing long-period [Formula: see text] near-source effects within the USGS NSHM going forward, reaching up to 10%–20%. Finally, we suggest consideration of minimum parameter ranges and baseline requirements as future DMs are developed to minimize single approach adaptations to enable more consistent application within both ground motion and hazard studies.","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140196584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-19DOI: 10.1177/87552930241234289
Franklin Olaya, Jonathan Bray, Norman Abrahamson
Performance-based procedures represent an improvement over current state-of-practice procedures that treat the assessment of seismic demand and engineering response parameters independently. Procedures used in current practice generally provide estimates of liquefaction-induced ground settlement that are inconsistent with the desired ground settlement hazard level. A recently developed probabilistic procedure to estimate liquefaction-induced ground settlement is employed to develop a new performance-based procedure that estimates ground settlement which accounts for key sources of uncertainty. The ground-motion intensity and ground settlement estimations are integrated in the proposed procedure to produce hazard curves for liquefaction-induced ground settlement. The hazard curve for ground settlement links different hazard levels with their corresponding values of ground settlement by evaluating a wide range of ground-motion intensities and site characterization parameters with their associated uncertainties. The proposed performance-based procedure also permits the evaluation of different sources of uncertainty and their effects on the ground settlement estimate.
{"title":"Performance-based probabilistic liquefaction-induced ground settlement procedure","authors":"Franklin Olaya, Jonathan Bray, Norman Abrahamson","doi":"10.1177/87552930241234289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241234289","url":null,"abstract":"Performance-based procedures represent an improvement over current state-of-practice procedures that treat the assessment of seismic demand and engineering response parameters independently. Procedures used in current practice generally provide estimates of liquefaction-induced ground settlement that are inconsistent with the desired ground settlement hazard level. A recently developed probabilistic procedure to estimate liquefaction-induced ground settlement is employed to develop a new performance-based procedure that estimates ground settlement which accounts for key sources of uncertainty. The ground-motion intensity and ground settlement estimations are integrated in the proposed procedure to produce hazard curves for liquefaction-induced ground settlement. The hazard curve for ground settlement links different hazard levels with their corresponding values of ground settlement by evaluating a wide range of ground-motion intensities and site characterization parameters with their associated uncertainties. The proposed performance-based procedure also permits the evaluation of different sources of uncertainty and their effects on the ground settlement estimate.","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140172582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-18DOI: 10.1177/87552930241231825
María E Ramos-Sepúlveda, Jonathan P Stewart, Grace A Parker, Morgan P Moschetti, Eric M Thompson, Scott J Brandenberg, Youssef MA Hashash, Ellen M Rathje
Model development in the Next Generation Attenuation-East (NGA-East) project included two components developed concurrently and independently: (1) earthquake ground-motion models (GMMs) that predict the median and aleatory variability of various intensity measures conditioned on magnitude and distance, derived for a reference hard-rock site condition with an average shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m ( VS30) = 3000 m/s; and (2) a site amplification model that modifies intensity measures for softer site conditions. We investigate whether these models, when used in tandem, are compatible with ground-motion recordings in central and eastern North America (CENA) using an expanded version of the NGA-East database that includes new events from November 2011 (end date of NGA-East data curation) to April 2022. Following this expansion, the data set has 187 events, 2096 sites, and 16,272 three-component recordings, although the magnitude range remains limited (∼4 to 5.8). We compute residuals using 17 NGA-East GMMs and three data selection criteria that reflect within-CENA regional variations in ground-motion attributes. Mixed-effects regression of the residuals reveals a persistent pattern in which ground motions are overpredicted at short periods (0.01–0.6 s, including peak ground acceleration (PGA)) and underpredicted at longer periods. These misfits are regionally variable, with the Texas–Oklahoma–Kansas region having larger absolute misfits than other parts of CENA. Two factors potentially influencing these misfits are (1) differences in the site amplification models used to adjust the data to the reference condition during NGA-East GMM development relative to CENA amplification models applied since the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), and (2) potential bias in simulation-based factors used to adjust ground motions from the hard-rock reference condition to a VS30 = 760 m/s condition. We provide adjustment factors and their epistemic uncertainties and discuss implications for applications.
{"title":"Data-driven adjustments for combined use of NGA-East hard-rock ground motion and site amplification models","authors":"María E Ramos-Sepúlveda, Jonathan P Stewart, Grace A Parker, Morgan P Moschetti, Eric M Thompson, Scott J Brandenberg, Youssef MA Hashash, Ellen M Rathje","doi":"10.1177/87552930241231825","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241231825","url":null,"abstract":"Model development in the Next Generation Attenuation-East (NGA-East) project included two components developed concurrently and independently: (1) earthquake ground-motion models (GMMs) that predict the median and aleatory variability of various intensity measures conditioned on magnitude and distance, derived for a reference hard-rock site condition with an average shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m ( V<jats:sub>S30</jats:sub>) = 3000 m/s; and (2) a site amplification model that modifies intensity measures for softer site conditions. We investigate whether these models, when used in tandem, are compatible with ground-motion recordings in central and eastern North America (CENA) using an expanded version of the NGA-East database that includes new events from November 2011 (end date of NGA-East data curation) to April 2022. Following this expansion, the data set has 187 events, 2096 sites, and 16,272 three-component recordings, although the magnitude range remains limited (∼4 to 5.8). We compute residuals using 17 NGA-East GMMs and three data selection criteria that reflect within-CENA regional variations in ground-motion attributes. Mixed-effects regression of the residuals reveals a persistent pattern in which ground motions are overpredicted at short periods (0.01–0.6 s, including peak ground acceleration (PGA)) and underpredicted at longer periods. These misfits are regionally variable, with the Texas–Oklahoma–Kansas region having larger absolute misfits than other parts of CENA. Two factors potentially influencing these misfits are (1) differences in the site amplification models used to adjust the data to the reference condition during NGA-East GMM development relative to CENA amplification models applied since the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), and (2) potential bias in simulation-based factors used to adjust ground motions from the hard-rock reference condition to a V<jats:sub>S30</jats:sub> = 760 m/s condition. We provide adjustment factors and their epistemic uncertainties and discuss implications for applications.","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140172595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-11DOI: 10.1177/87552930241231686
Farid Ghahari, Daniel Swensen, Hamid Haddadi, Ertugrul Taciroglu
This study presents a two-step hybrid (model-data fusion) method for reconstructing the seismic response of instrumented buildings at their non-instrumented floors. Over the past couple of decades, seismic data recorded within instrumented buildings have yielded invaluable insights into the behavior of civil structures, which were arguably impossible to obtain through numerical simulations, laboratory-scale experiments, or even in-situ testing. Recently, advances in sensing technology have opened new pathways for structural health monitoring (SHM) and rapid post-earthquake assessment. However, data-driven techniques tend to lack accuracy when structures have sparse instrumentation. In addition, creating detailed numerical models for the monitored structures is labor-intensive and time-consuming, often unsuitable for rapid post-event assessments. The common approach to address these challenges has been to use simple interpolation techniques over the sparse measurements. However, uncertainties associated with such estimates are usually overlooked, and these methods have certain physical limitations. In this study, we propose a two-step approach for reconstructing seismic responses. In the initial step, a coupled shear–flexural beam model is calibrated using data collected from instrumented floors. Next, the residual, representing the difference between measurements and the beam model’s predictions, is used to train a Gaussian process regression model. The combination of these two models provides both the mean and variance of the response at the non-instrumented floors. This new approach is verified by using simulated acceleration responses of a tall building. Validation is attained by using real seismic data recorded in two tall buildings and comparing the method’s predictions with actual measurements on floors not used for training. Finally, data recorded in a 52-story building during multiple earthquakes are used for demonstrating the practical application of the proposed approach in real-world scenarios.
{"title":"A hybrid model-data method for seismic response reconstruction of instrumented buildings","authors":"Farid Ghahari, Daniel Swensen, Hamid Haddadi, Ertugrul Taciroglu","doi":"10.1177/87552930241231686","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241231686","url":null,"abstract":"This study presents a two-step hybrid (model-data fusion) method for reconstructing the seismic response of instrumented buildings at their non-instrumented floors. Over the past couple of decades, seismic data recorded within instrumented buildings have yielded invaluable insights into the behavior of civil structures, which were arguably impossible to obtain through numerical simulations, laboratory-scale experiments, or even in-situ testing. Recently, advances in sensing technology have opened new pathways for structural health monitoring (SHM) and rapid post-earthquake assessment. However, data-driven techniques tend to lack accuracy when structures have sparse instrumentation. In addition, creating detailed numerical models for the monitored structures is labor-intensive and time-consuming, often unsuitable for rapid post-event assessments. The common approach to address these challenges has been to use simple interpolation techniques over the sparse measurements. However, uncertainties associated with such estimates are usually overlooked, and these methods have certain physical limitations. In this study, we propose a two-step approach for reconstructing seismic responses. In the initial step, a coupled shear–flexural beam model is calibrated using data collected from instrumented floors. Next, the residual, representing the difference between measurements and the beam model’s predictions, is used to train a Gaussian process regression model. The combination of these two models provides both the mean and variance of the response at the non-instrumented floors. This new approach is verified by using simulated acceleration responses of a tall building. Validation is attained by using real seismic data recorded in two tall buildings and comparing the method’s predictions with actual measurements on floors not used for training. Finally, data recorded in a 52-story building during multiple earthquakes are used for demonstrating the practical application of the proposed approach in real-world scenarios.","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140107860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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