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Actual supply-demand of the urban green space in a populous and highly developed city: Evidence based on mobile signal data in Guangzhou 人口众多的高度发达城市中城市绿地的实际供需情况:基于广州移动信号数据的证据
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112839
Jintang Chen , Bingrong Liu , Shan Li , Benyan Jiang , Xuefei Wang , Wenxin Lu , Yuan Hu , Tianrong Wen , Yongheng Feng
The rational assessment of the urban green space supply–demand relationship is crucial aspect to achieving Sustainable Development Goals. However, previous research predominantly focused on evaluative and indirect exposure calculations for the lack of precise geographic boundaries for urban green space and their refined visitation data. This has led to an evaluation of the supply–demand relationship that may deviate from the actual condition. In this study, the precise geographic boundaries, functional characteristics, and scale information of planned urban green space in Guangzhou were utilized. Then, the supply–demand relationship of urban green space was assessed using mobile signal data to capture real-time exposure. The results show that 20.8% of the urban green space in Guangzhou suffers from undersupply, which is especially pronounced in the central urban areas. The imbalance is more pronounced on weekends compared to weekdays, with 10.6% higher undersupply rates. In addition, the Gini for the monthly average of green space exposure is 0.71, indicating a highly unequal of green space exposure in Guangzhou. The real exposure inequality of urban green space in the central urban area is better than in the peripheral area. In particular, small-scale urban green space documents a more severe imbalance, and the exposure is significantly correlated with the scale of urban green space. Based on these findings, this study provides scientific recommendations for urban green space supply planning including scale, spatial arrangement, and indicator optimization.
合理评估城市绿地的供需关系对于实现可持续发展目标至关重要。然而,由于缺乏城市绿地的精确地理边界及其细化的游览数据,以往的研究主要集中在评估性和间接接触计算上。这导致对供需关系的评估可能偏离实际情况。本研究利用广州市规划城市绿地的精确地理边界、功能特征和尺度信息,对广州市城市绿地的供需关系进行了分析。然后,利用移动信号数据对城市绿地的供需关系进行评估,以捕捉实时曝光。结果显示,广州市 20.8%的城市绿地供不应求,中心城区尤为明显。与工作日相比,周末的不平衡现象更为明显,供应不足率高出 10.6%。此外,月平均绿地暴露的基尼系数为 0.71,表明广州的绿地暴露非常不平等。中心城区城市绿地的实际暴露不均等程度要好于外围地区。其中,小尺度城市绿地的不平衡性更为严重,且暴露量与城市绿地尺度显著相关。基于这些发现,本研究为城市绿地供给规划提供了科学建议,包括规模、空间布局和指标优化。
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引用次数: 0
Source-specific probabilistic health risk judgement of soil heavy metals in a typical resource-based town in North China 华北典型资源型城镇土壤重金属健康风险的特定源概率判断
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112854
Yuqi Zhang , Bing Jiang , Zongjun Gao , Jiutan Liu
The process of rapid urbanization has led to an increase in energy consumption and pollution emissions, posing a significant threat to the environment, as well as human life and health. This is particularly evident in resource-based cities and towns where factors of production rely heavily on unsustainable development patterns. It is imperative to establish an emergency response mechanism for high-priority risks. In this study, risk indices were used to analyze the characteristics of soil HM pollution. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) model and Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) model were used to assess the probabilistic health risks posed by HMs and were combined with the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model to identify the major sources contributing to these risks. The soil contamination and ecological risks were assessed to be at minimal levels, with Cd and Hg identified as the predominant contaminants. Probabilistic HHRA indicated that health risks were higher for children than for adults. Specifically, HMs present unacceptable non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks with probabilities of 8.63% and 30.83% for children, respectively, while adults faced negligible non-carcinogenic risks and acceptable carcinogenic risks, both with a certainty of 100%. The PMF model identified five sources, including fuel combustion, agriculture, natural processes, transportation emissions, and processing and manufacturing. These sources were found to contribute insignificantly to non-carcinogenic risks for all populations but presented notable carcinogenic risks. Ni and Cr were identified as the leading elements contributing to health hazards, with transportation recognized as a priority anthropogenic source warranting regulatory attention. In this study, the assessment of pollution levels and health hazards mostly relied on HM concentrations, demonstrating a limited influence of toxicity. This research exemplifies the use of probabilistic risk assessment based on specific sources, which can offer new perspectives on the risk assessment of soil HMs in resource-dependent cities and towns as well as valuable insights into the development of risk prevention and control strategies.
快速城市化进程导致能源消耗和污染排放增加,对环境以及人类生命和健康构成重大威胁。这在资源型城镇尤为明显,因为这些城镇的生产要素严重依赖不可持续的发展模式。针对高优先级风险建立应急响应机制势在必行。本研究采用风险指数来分析土壤 HM 污染的特征。采用蒙特卡罗模拟(MCS)模型和人类健康风险评估(HHRA)模型来评估 HMs 可能带来的健康风险,并结合正矩阵因子化(PMF)模型来确定造成这些风险的主要来源。经评估,土壤污染和生态风险处于最低水平,镉和汞被确定为主要污染物。概率 HHRA 表明,儿童的健康风险高于成人。具体来说,HMs 给儿童带来不可接受的非致癌和致癌风险,概率分别为 8.63% 和 30.83%,而成人面临的非致癌风险可忽略不计,致癌风险可接受,确定性均为 100%。PMF 模型确定了五个来源,包括燃料燃烧、农业、自然过程、运输排放以及加工和制造。研究发现,这些来源对所有人群的非致癌风险影响不大,但具有显著的致癌风险。镍和铬被认为是对健康造成危害的主要元素,而运输被认为是值得监管部门重点关注的人为来源。在这项研究中,对污染水平和健康危害的评估主要依赖于 HM 浓度,这表明毒性的影响有限。这项研究体现了基于特定来源的概率风险评估的应用,可为资源依赖型城镇的土壤 HMs 风险评估提供新的视角,并为制定风险预防和控制策略提供有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Urban forest indicator assessment for nature-based solutions to connect biodiversity and people 城市森林指标评估,以自然为基础的解决方案,将生物多样性与人类联系起来
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112843
Jinsuk Jeong, Chan-Ryul Park
Urban forests are essential for supporting ecosystem functions that benefit both city residents and urban biodiversity. This study assessed urban forests through three key indicators—availability, accessibility, and connectivity—to create balanced, nature-based solutions for sustainable urban forest management. Availability serves as a straightforward and comparable criterion that provides resources for both humans and biodiversity in urban areas. However, accessibility and connectivity indicators exhibit distinct and sometimes contradictory characteristics, emphasizing the complexity of balancing human access with ecological continuity. At the practical management scale of urban forests, walking-based accessibility and the Integral Index of Connectivity emerged as particularly strong contrasting indicators, offering valuable insights for tailoring management strategies to local needs. These findings indicate the need to harmonize urban forest policies to meet the needs of both residents and urban biodiversity, ensuring the long-term health and resilience of urban ecosystems.
城市森林对于支持生态系统功能至关重要,这些功能既有利于城市居民,也有利于城市生物多样性。本研究通过可用性、可及性和连通性这三个关键指标对城市森林进行评估,从而为可持续城市森林管理提供平衡的、基于自然的解决方案。可用性是一个直接且可比较的标准,为城市地区的人类和生物多样性提供资源。然而,可得性和连通性指标表现出截然不同,有时甚至相互矛盾的特点,强调了平衡人类可得性和生态连续性的复杂性。在城市森林的实际管理范围内,以步行为基础的可达性和连通性综合指数成为对比特别强烈的指标,为根据当地需求制定管理策略提供了宝贵的见解。这些发现表明,有必要协调城市森林政策,以满足居民和城市生物多样性的需求,确保城市生态系统的长期健康和恢复力。
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引用次数: 0
A novel integrated socio-ecological-economic index for assessing heat health risk 用于评估高温健康风险的新型社会-生态-经济综合指数
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112840
Xihan Yao , Shan Jin , Zhuohui Zhao , Ranhao Sun , Chunfang Wang , Zhaowu Yu
Extreme heat events caused by climate change and rapid urbanization are major environmental issues affecting the health of urban populations, especially in metropolitan areas. However, few studies have employed a systematic risk assessment model to delineate heat health risk (HHR) in rapidly urbanizing metropolitan areas at a finer resolution, and rare studies have used epidemiological approaches for validation, as mortality is typically considered the most crucial indicator for assessing health impact. Here, a novel integrated socio-ecological-economic index (SEEI) was used to analyze the spatial distribution and evolution of HHR with a neighborhood resolution in Shanghai from 2000 to 2020, and four heat-related mortality indicators were applied to validate. The results showed that (1) the spatial distribution of the SEEI in Shanghai exhibited significant differences between urban and suburban areas, with the main urban areas having an average SEEI 2–3 times higher than suburban areas. (2) Overall, the SEEI peaked in 2010 and declined in 2020, with very high-risk neighborhoods decreasing from seven in 2000 to none in 2020. However, there was a slight trend towards a wider range of moderate-risk neighborhoods. (3) The heat-related mortality indicators exhibited significant correlations with SEEI, demonstrating the reliability of the SEEI as also confirmed by sensitivity analysis. The SEEI used in this study can provide a basis for decision-making for Shanghai as well as similar metropolitan areas to prevent extreme heat events.
气候变化和快速城市化导致的极端高温事件是影响城市人口健康的主要环境问题,尤其是在大都市地区。然而,很少有研究采用系统的风险评估模型,以更精细的分辨率划分快速城市化大都市地区的高温健康风险(HHR),也很少有研究采用流行病学方法进行验证,因为死亡率通常被认为是评估健康影响的最关键指标。本文采用一种新型的社会-生态-经济综合指数(SEEI)来分析 2000 年至 2020 年上海街区热相关死亡率的空间分布和演变情况,并应用四种热相关死亡率指标进行验证。结果表明:(1)上海 SEEI 的空间分布在城区和郊区之间存在显著差异,主城区的 SEEI 平均值是郊区的 2-3 倍。(2)总体而言,SEEI 在 2010 年达到峰值,2020 年有所下降,极高风险社区从 2000 年的 7 个减少到 2020 年的 0 个。不过,中度风险社区的范围略有扩大的趋势。(3) 与高温相关的死亡率指标与 SEEI 呈显著相关性,表明 SEEI 的可靠性,敏感性分析也证实了这一点。本研究中使用的 SEEI 可为上海及类似大都市地区预防极端高温事件提供决策依据。
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引用次数: 0
Drivers of prehistoric cultural evolution in the Chengdu Plain: Fire events and environmental changes during the middle and late Holocene 成都平原史前文化演变的驱动因素:全新世中晚期的火灾事件与环境变化
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112833
Jianghong Wu , Mengxiu Zeng , Yunfeng Liu , Cheng Zhu , Yongqiu Wu , Xinyi Mao , Nengjing Wang , Xiaolu Wang , Jiasheng Wang , Zhangrong Wu
The Chengdu Plain (CDP), located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and recognized as one of the cradles of ancient Chinese civilization, is closely associated with the ancient Shu culture. While previous studies have extensively explored the relationship between environmental disasters and cultural evolution in the CDP, the impact of paleofire events remains insufficiently examined. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of charcoal particles across various size (0–30, 30–50, 50–125, and > 125 μm) from sediment samples collected at the Baodun and Majie sites in the CDP. Key findings include: (1) Minimal paleofire activity is evident between 6200 and 5100 cal. a BP, aligning with low levels of human occupation. After 5100 cal. a BP, anthropogenic fire activity notably increased, associated with practices such as slash-and-burn agriculture, pottery production, bronze smelting, ritual activities, warfare, and social conflicts. (2) Large-scale fires corresponded closely with abrupt climatic shifts. An expansion of herbaceous vegetation likely contributed to heightened fire frequencies, particularly of local fires after 4500 cal. a BP, indicating that climatic conditions significantly influenced fire regimes alongside changing vegetation patterns. (3) High charcoal concentrations in the late phases of earlier cultural periods correlate with later settlements located at higher elevations and greater distances from rivers. Shifts in settlement orientation, with eastern-facing settlements showing lower average charcoal concentrations and westward-facing settlements exhibiting increased charcoal deposition, suggest changes in fire exposure related to settlement locating choices. (4) The decline of the Sanxingdui and Jinsha-Shierqiao cultures appears to be primarily driven by natural disasters, rather than solely by climate-induced environmental changes. However, in other periods, a strong correlation between climatic fluctuations and cultural transitions underscores the complex interplay between environmental dynamics and human adaptation strategies.
成都平原(CDP)位于长江上游,是公认的中国古代文明发祥地之一,与古蜀文化密切相关。以往的研究广泛探讨了成都平原环境灾害与文化演化之间的关系,但对古火灾事件的影响研究仍显不足。本研究全面分析了在 CDP 宝墩和马街遗址采集的沉积物样品中不同粒度(0-30、30-50、50-125 和 > 125 μm)的木炭颗粒。主要发现包括(1) 公元前 6200 年至公元前 5100 年期间,古火灾活动极少,这与低水平的人类活动相吻合。公元前 5100 年之后,人为火灾活动明显增加,这与刀耕火种农业、陶器生产、青铜冶炼、祭祀活动、战争和社会冲突等活动有关。(2)大规模火灾与气候的突然转变密切相关。草本植被的扩展很可能导致火灾频率的增加,尤其是公元前 4500 年以后的局部火灾,这表明气候条件在植被模式变化的同时也对火灾机制产生了重大影响。(3) 早期文化时期晚期的木炭浓度较高,这与晚期聚落位于海拔较高、距离河流较远有关。聚落朝向的变化,朝东的聚落平均木炭浓度较低,而朝西的聚落木炭沉积量增加,这表明火灾暴露的变化与聚落选址有关。(4) 三星堆文化和金沙江石儿桥文化的衰落似乎主要是由自然灾害造成的,而不仅仅是由气候引起的环境变化。然而,在其他时期,气候波动与文化变迁之间的密切关联凸显了环境动态与人类适应策略之间复杂的相互作用。
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引用次数: 0
Tracking ecosystem stability across boreal Siberia 追踪西伯利亚北部生态系统的稳定性
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112841
Tatiana A. Shestakova , Brendan M. Rogers , Brendan Mackey , Sonia Hugh , Patrick Norman , Elena A. Kukavskaya
Forests around the world are under immense pressure from human land use and climate change. Old-growth and primary forests have been degraded in recent decades, yet are generally more resilient and resistant to climate change effects compared to human-modified forests. Nowhere is this more evident than in Russian Siberia, which contains almost one-fifth of the world’s forest area and has been subjected to a variety of land uses and disturbances since the mid-20th century. Although a number of related geospatial products exist, there are no large-scale maps of old-growth and primary forests across Siberia. However, remotely sensed metrics of forest stability have been shown to relate to old-growth and primary forests in tropical and boreal environments. Here we apply stability indices from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors across boreal Siberia from 2003 to 2020. Our results indicate that forests in the central and southern taiga contain most areas of high stability, but also distinct zones of disturbance and low stability. We identified three regions with particularly low forest stability: (i) the Zabaikal region in southern Siberia, (ii) a portion of the central taiga spanning the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), and (iii) the West Siberian lowlands. This approach can be used to monitor Siberian boreal forest condition, and could be applied to other boreal forested regions.
世界各地的森林正承受着人类使用土地和气候变化带来的巨大压力。近几十年来,古老森林和原始森林已经退化,但与人类改造的森林相比,它们通常更有韧性,更能抵御气候变化的影响。这一点在俄罗斯西伯利亚最为明显,该地区的森林面积几乎占世界森林面积的五分之一,自 20 世纪中叶以来一直受到各种土地用途和干扰的影响。虽然有一些相关的地理空间产品,但没有关于整个西伯利亚古老森林和原始森林的大规模地图。不过,森林稳定性的遥感指标已被证明与热带和北方环境中的古老森林和原始森林有关。在此,我们应用了中分辨率成像分光仪(MODIS)传感器在 2003 年至 2020 年期间对西伯利亚北部地区的稳定性指数。我们的研究结果表明,泰加中部和南部的森林包含大部分高稳定性区域,但也有明显的干扰区和低稳定性区域。我们确定了三个森林稳定性特别低的地区:(i) 西伯利亚南部的后贝加尔地区,(ii) 横跨萨哈共和国(雅库特)的泰加中部部分地区,以及 (iii) 西西伯利亚低地。这种方法可用于监测西伯利亚北方森林状况,也可应用于其他北方森林地区。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding the evolution trend of urban flood risk and resilience for better flood management 了解城市洪水风险和抗灾能力的演变趋势,更好地进行洪水管理
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112829
Wenjie Chen , Yong Lei , Long Qi , Jiaxuan Zheng , Guoru Huang , Huilin Wang
The Pearl River Delta (PRD) has undergone rapid urbanization over the past three decades, leading to significant changes in urban flood risk and resilience. This study addresses the critical need to understand evolution trend of urban flood risk and resilience in the PRD for both pre-urbanization (1990) and post-urbanization (2020) periods. Using 12 indices integrated within the different frameworks, the spatial and temporal evolution of risk and resilience over the past 30 years are analyze. Six new evaluative indicators are introduced to capture spatial characteristics and their evolutionary trends more accurately. Findings reveal the spatial distribution of urban flood risk and resilience. And the results further indicate that high-risk and low-resilience areas have expanded, become more interconnected, and exhibited increased fragmentation and complexity, while spatial aggregation has decreased. High-risk areas particularly show a trend of spreading southward, whereas low-resilience areas have remained relatively stable. Strategies involving green infrastructure to reduce the interconnection of flood risk patches, urban planning to limit the expansion of risk regions, and adaptive management to handle the complexity of flood-prone areas are proposed. This study provides insights into the spatiotemporal evolution of flood risk and resilience, offering valuable guidance for urban planners and policymakers.
珠江三角洲(珠三角)在过去三十年间经历了快速的城市化进程,导致城市洪涝风险和抗灾能力发生了显著变化。本研究旨在了解珠三角城市化前(1990 年)和城市化后(2020 年)的城市洪水风险和抵御能力的演变趋势。利用不同框架下的 12 个综合指数,分析了过去 30 年间风险和抗灾能力的时空演变。为了更准确地捕捉空间特征及其演变趋势,引入了六个新的评估指标。研究结果揭示了城市洪水风险和抗灾能力的空间分布。结果进一步表明,高风险地区和低抗灾能力地区的面积扩大了,相互之间的联系增多了,碎片化和复杂性增加了,而空间聚集程度降低了。高风险地区尤其呈现出向南扩展的趋势,而低抗灾能力地区则保持相对稳定。本研究提出了一些策略,包括利用绿色基础设施减少洪水风险片区之间的相互联系,利用城市规划限制风险区域的扩大,以及利用适应性管理应对洪水易发区域的复杂性。这项研究为洪水风险和抗灾能力的时空演变提供了见解,为城市规划者和决策者提供了宝贵的指导。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of regional Ecosystem Service Bundles coupling climate and land use changes 结合气候和土地利用变化评估区域生态系统服务包
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112844
Hao Su , Mingxi Du , Qiuyu Liu , Xiang Kang , Li Zhao , Wei Zheng , Ziyan Liao
Escalating land use and cover change (LUCC) trends and intensifying impacts of climate change have brought about a global decline in ecosystem services (ESs). Historical and current ES Bundles (ESBs) are usually investigated as representative of ES capacities. However, whether the coupling impact of future climate and LUCCs on regional ESBs will be facilitated or inhibited is still unclear. Here, we evaluate and simulate the ESBs of Shaanxi Province, a typical region of Northwest China, from 2000 to 2050. We find that future land use patterns are characterized by the incremental amount of ecological land area and construction land, while arable land faces a significant decline. Moreover, we observe trade-offs in water-related ES pairs due to precipitation latitudinal zonation and topography, while other ESs exhibit synergistic relationships. As climate and land use changes intensify, the transformation probability among ecological and barren ESBs becomes progressively stronger. We recommend focusing on ES interactions and the comprehensive rehabilitation of regional ESs to improve the ESBs of ecologically fragile and urbanized areas.
土地利用和植被变化(LUCC)趋势的加剧以及气候变化影响的加剧已导致全球生态系统服务(ES)的减少。历史和当前的生态系统服务包(ESB)通常被视为生态系统服务能力的代表。然而,未来气候和 LUCCs 对区域 ESB 的耦合影响是促进还是抑制仍不清楚。在此,我们对中国西北典型地区陕西省 2000 年至 2050 年的 ESB 进行了评估和模拟。我们发现,未来土地利用模式的特点是生态用地面积和建设用地面积的增加,而耕地面积则面临大幅下降。此外,由于降水纬度带和地形的影响,我们观察到与水相关的生态系统对的权衡,而其他生态系统则表现出协同关系。随着气候和土地利用变化的加剧,生态和贫瘠 ESB 之间的转化概率会逐渐增大。我们建议关注生态系统之间的相互作用和区域生态系统的综合恢复,以改善生态脆弱地区和城市化地区的 ESB。
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引用次数: 0
Long-term water quality dynamics and trend assessment reveal the effectiveness of ecological compensation: Insights from China’s first cross-provincial compensation watershed 长期水质动态及趋势评估揭示生态补偿的有效性:中国首个跨省补偿流域的启示
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112853
Haitao Chen , Chengcheng Wang , Qiuru Ren , Xia Liu , Jiaxue Ren , Gelin Kang , Yuqiu Wang
Despite the global adoption of watershed Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) to enhance water quality, their effectiveness in achieving improvements remains inadequately assessed. This study employed the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model to evaluate water quality changes in China’s first cross-provincial Ecological Compensation (EC) watershed from 2000 to 2020, and to determine the impact of human interventions and climate change. Results showed that the WRTDS model accurately predicted concentrations and loads of TN, NH4+, CODMn, and TP, while human interventions, including WWTPs construction and EC measures, have improved water quality to varying extents. Specifically, NH4+ concentrations rose sharply from 2000 to 2008 but decreased during the EC period, indicating effective wastewater treatment. However, TN concentrations continued to rise, and TP levels did not significantly decrease, probably due to the accumulation legacy N and P in soil and groundwater. Moreover, CODMn concentrations exhibited a steady increased from 2000 to 2020. These trends collectively suggest that point source pollution controls are effective, while non-point source pollution, particularly legacy sources, remains a considerable challenge. In addition, water quality variations under different climate conditions reveal the diversity of potential pollution sources, while extreme precipitation events potentially increasing TN, CODMn, and TP concentrations. Overall, the WRTDS model effectively evaluates the watershed EC programmes, identifies long-term water quality trends and potential sources, and offers valuable insights for optimizing pollution control strategies.
尽管全球都在采用流域生态系统服务补偿(PES)来改善水质,但对其改善效果的评估仍然不足。本研究采用时间、排放量和季节加权回归(WRTDS)模型,评估了中国首个跨省生态补偿(EC)流域从 2000 年到 2020 年的水质变化,并确定了人为干预和气候变化的影响。结果表明,WRTDS 模型准确预测了 TN、NH4+、CODMn 和 TP 的浓度和负荷,而包括污水处理厂建设和生态补偿措施在内的人为干预措施在不同程度上改善了水质。具体而言,NH4+浓度在2000年至2008年期间急剧上升,但在EC期间有所下降,这表明废水处理取得了成效。然而,TN 浓度持续上升,TP 含量也没有显著下降,这可能是由于土壤和地下水中遗留的氮和磷的积累。此外,从 2000 年到 2020 年,CODMn 的浓度呈稳步上升趋势。这些趋势共同表明,点源污染控制是有效的,而非点源污染,尤其是遗留污染源,仍然是一个相当大的挑战。此外,不同气候条件下的水质变化揭示了潜在污染源的多样性,而极端降水事件可能会增加 TN、CODMn 和 TP 的浓度。总体而言,WRTDS 模型有效地评估了流域 EC 方案,确定了长期水质趋势和潜在污染源,并为优化污染控制策略提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Interactions between ecosystem services and their causal relationships with driving factors: A case study of the Tarim River Basin, China 生态系统服务之间的相互作用及其与驱动因素之间的因果关系:中国塔里木河流域案例研究
IF 7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112810
Rongqin Yang , Zhenxia Mu , Rui Gao , Mianting Huang , Shikang Zhao
Clarifying different ecosystem service (ES) interactions and their primary driving factors is essential for effective ecosystem management. Grassland degradation, interrupted river flow, and intensified human activities pose serious threats to the ESs of the Tarim River Basin (TRB). However, there is insufficient research on the between ES interactions and their causal relationships with drivers in the TRB. Therefore, this study measured four key ESs in the TRB: water yield (WY), carbon sequestration (CS), soil conservation (SC), and habitat quality (HQ). Correlation analysis and bivariate local spatial autocorrelation were employed to uncover trade-offs and synergies between different ESs from both holistic and spatial perspectives and ES bundles were identified using self-organizing maps. Geographic convergent cross-mapping was utilized to investigate the cause-and-effect relationships between ESs and their influences, pinpointing the main drivers. The findings revealed that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, WY and SC decreased, whereas CS increased markedly. HQ initially declined but then improved, with an overall insignificant change. Spatially, low-value ES regions were in the central and eastern desert areas, high WY and SC values occurred in mountainous regions, and high CS and HQ values were found in oases and mountainous areas; (2) ESs exhibited significant synergy throughout the watershed. Spatially, trade-offs and synergies coexisted, with high-high synergy predominating in mountainous regions and low-low synergy occurring primarily in the central and eastern desert areas. Trade-off effects were limited, mainly occurring in oases and parts of the Kunlun Mountains. ES bundles exhibited signs of change or deterioration, and the CS regulation bundle and WY supply bundle in particular face degradation risks; (3) the dominant direction of bidirectional asymmetric causality differed across ESs and drivers. Overall, the dominant direction of WY and drivers was that WY influenced drivers (WY → drivers), whereas SC was typically influenced by drivers (drivers → SC). The dominant orientation of CS and HQ concerning drivers is that natural factors influenced these ESs (natural factors → ESs), while human factors were influenced by ESs (ESs → human factors). The main drivers for WY and SC were precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and elevation. The main drivers for CS and HQ were land use intensity, followed by precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature. The results of this study provide a reference for the conservation and management of ESs in the TRB.
明确不同生态系统服务(ES)之间的相互作用及其主要驱动因素对于有效的生态系统管理至关重要。草原退化、河流断流和人类活动加剧对塔里木河流域(TRB)的生态系统服务构成了严重威胁。然而,关于塔里木河流域生态系统之间的相互作用及其与驱动因素之间的因果关系的研究尚不充分。因此,本研究测量了塔里木河流域的四个关键生态系统:水产量(WY)、碳固存(CS)、土壤保持(SC)和栖息地质量(HQ)。研究采用了相关性分析和二元局部空间自相关性,从整体和空间角度揭示了不同生态系统服务之间的权衡和协同作用,并利用自组织图识别了生态系统服务束。利用地理聚合交叉映射研究了生态系统服务及其影响因素之间的因果关系,并确定了主要驱动因素。研究结果表明(1) 从 2000 年到 2020 年,WY 和 SC 下降,而 CS 显著上升。HQ 最初有所下降,但随后有所改善,总体变化不明显。从空间上看,低 ES 值区域位于中部和东部沙漠地区,高 WY 值和 SC 值出现在山区,而高 CS 值和 HQ 值则出现在绿洲和山区;(2)整个流域的 ES 呈现出显著的协同效应。从空间上看,权衡效应和协同效应并存,高-高协同效应主要出现在山区,低-低协同效应主要出现在中部和东部沙漠地区。权衡效应有限,主要出现在绿洲和昆仑山的部分地区。生态系统服务束表现出变化或恶化的迹象,尤其是 CS 调节束和 WY 供给束面临退化风险;(3)不同生态系统服务束和驱动因子的双向非对称因果关系的主导方向不同。总体而言,WY 和驱动因素的主导方向是 WY 影响驱动因素(WY → 驱动因素),而 SC 通常受驱动因素的影响(驱动因素 → SC)。CS 和 HQ 关于驱动因素的主导方向是自然因素影响这些 ES(自然因素 → ES),而人为因素受到 ES 的影响(ES → 人为因素)。WY 和 SC 的主要驱动因素是降水、温度、潜在蒸散量和海拔。CS 和 HQ 的主要驱动因素是土地利用强度,其次是降水、潜在蒸散量和温度。这项研究的结果为TRB地区生态系统服务的保护和管理提供了参考。
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Ecological Indicators
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