Ecological Indicators最新文献_第6页

Revealing various change characteristics and drivers of ecological vulnerability in the mountains of southwest China 揭示中国西南山区生态脆弱性的各种变化特征和驱动因素

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112680

Suling He , Lanping Nong , Jinliang Wang , Xunzhen Zhong , Jun Ma

Ecological vulnerability (EV) assessment is an important means of reflecting the evolutionary process of the local ecological environment, which is crucial for ecological security. The current EV assessment still faces challenges in comprehensively revealing its spatio-temporal change characteristics due to diversity, multi-scale complexity and non-linearity of ecosystems. In this study, we comprehensively revealed the spatio-temporal change features and driver mechanisms of EV in Yunnan Province (YP) using methods such as breaks for additive seasonal and trend (BFAST) and Geodetector. According to the findings, (1) the ecological vulnerability index (EVI) in YP decreased by 0.0265 on the raster scale between 2000 and 2018, and the ecological vulnerability level (EVL) was mainly dominated by level III. At the city scale, EVL in YP was dominated by level IV. At the basin scale, the average EV of the Jinsha River basin was much greater other basins. (2) The linear trend of EV in the YP mainly showed an insignificant decrease, mostly concentrated in the YP’s eastern region. The non-linear trend mainly showed a monotonous decrease, with the mutation time concentrated in 2009. The future persistence trend of EV under different coupling modes was dominated by anti-persistence decrease (Sen-MK + Hurst) and anti-persistence monotonous decrease (BFAST + Hurst), with an area percentage of 40.19 % and 25.13 %, respectively. (3) Gross primary productivity was the priority factor influencing YP’s EV (q = 0.4137). This study not only enriches the cases of EV assessment studies in the high mountain valley area but also bridges the gap of analysing the multi-spatial scale characteristics and change trends of regional EV.

生态脆弱性（EV）评估是反映当地生态环境演变过程的重要手段，对生态安全至关重要。由于生态系统的多样性、多尺度复杂性和非线性，目前的生态脆弱性评估在全面揭示其时空变化特征方面仍面临挑战。在本研究中，我们利用季节和趋势加和断裂法（BFAST）和 Geodetector 等方法，全面揭示了云南省（YP）EV 的时空变化特征和驱动机制。研究结果表明：（1）2000-2018年，云南省生态脆弱指数（EVI）在栅格尺度上下降了0.0265，生态脆弱等级（EVL）主要以Ⅲ级为主。在城市尺度上，盐田区的 EVL 以 IV 级为主。在流域尺度上，金沙江流域的平均EV值远高于其他流域。(2）永平的 EV 线性趋势主要表现为下降不明显，主要集中在永平的东部地区。非线性趋势以单调下降为主，突变时间集中在 2009 年。不同耦合模式下，EV 的未来持续趋势以反持续下降（Sen-MK + Hurst）和反持续单调下降（BFAST + Hurst）为主，面积百分比分别为 40.19 % 和 25.13 %。(3) 总初级生产力是影响 YP 值的首要因素（q = 0.4137）。本研究不仅丰富了高山峡谷地区 EV 评估研究的案例，而且填补了区域 EV 多空间尺度特征和变化趋势分析的空白。

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引用次数: 0

Ecological management zoning based on the causation between ecological risk and ecosystem services in the Gaoligong Mountain 基于高黎贡山生态风险与生态系统服务之间因果关系的生态管理分区

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112673

Siqi Wang , Yuyang Chen , Hanyu Jin , Yungang Li

Ecological management zoning is crucial for advancing regional ecological conservation and sustainable management. Previous studies have highlighted the perspectives of Landscape Ecological Risk (LER) and Ecosystem Services Value (ESV) in delineating ecological management zones, however, their causal relationship has received limited attention. This study addresses this gap by proposing an innovative ecological management zoning method that integrates the causality between LER and ESV, demonstrated through a case study in the Gaoligong Mountain Region (GMR), China. The spatial and causal relationships between LER and ESV were analyzed using Bivariate Spatial Autocorrelation (BSA) and the Geographically Convergent Cross-mapping Model (GCCM). The findings revealed that: (1) Although there was no significant decreasing trend in LER index, a general shift towards lower risk levels was observed, indicating an overall decline in LER from 2000 to 2020; (2) ESV increased from 2000 to 2020, with high and sub-high value areas increased by 9.3%, while low and sub-low value areas decreased by 8.85%; (3) Both LER and ESV exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity. A significant negative spatial correlation between LER and ESV was found, with LER identified as the primary causal factor influencing ESV; (4) Based on these insights, the GMR was divided into conservation, early warning, restoration, and revitalization zones, each with tailored management strategies. The causality analysis conducted in this study offers a deeper understanding of the relationship between LER and ESV. In addition to introducing a causation-based ecological management zoning method, this research offers a scientific foundation for improving ecological protection and promoting sustainable development in the GMR.

生态管理分区对于推进区域生态保护和可持续管理至关重要。以往的研究强调了从景观生态风险（LER）和生态系统服务价值（ESV）的角度来划分生态管理区，但对它们之间的因果关系关注有限。本研究针对这一空白，提出了一种创新的生态管理分区方法，将景观生态风险（LER）和生态系统服务价值（ESV）之间的因果关系整合在一起，并通过中国高黎贡山区（GMR）的案例研究加以证明。利用双变量空间自相关（BSA）和地理聚合交叉映射模型（GCCM）分析了 LER 与 ESV 之间的空间关系和因果关系。研究结果表明(1) 虽然 LER 指数没有明显的下降趋势，但总体上向低风险水平转移，表明从 2000 年到 2020 年 LER 总体下降；(2) 从 2000 年到 2020 年 ESV 增加，高值和次高值地区增加了 9.3%，而低值和次低值地区减少了 8.85%；(3) LER 和 ESV 都表现出明显的空间异质性。(3) LER 和 ESV 都表现出明显的空间异质性，LER 和 ESV 之间存在明显的空间负相关，LER 被认为是影响 ESV 的主要因果因素；(4) 基于这些认识，全球海洋环境状况报告被划分为保护区、预警区、恢复区和振兴区，每个区都有针对性的管理策略。本研究进行的因果关系分析有助于深入理解 LER 与 ESV 之间的关系。除了引入基于因果关系的生态管理分区方法外，本研究还为改善全球海洋公园的生态保护和促进可持续发展提供了科学依据。

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引用次数: 0

Study on the coordination and factors affecting the coupling of resource and environmental carrying capacity and regional economy in ecologically fragile areas 生态脆弱地区资源环境承载力与区域经济的协调及影响因素研究

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112656

Xiaomin Wang, Xiaoyan Bu, Jiarui Wang, Lingna Du, Zhichang Hong, Ge Shi, Baqiatullah

The coordinated development of the resources, environment and social economy in ecologically fragile areas has become one of the urgent issues for all countries in the world. In this study, the ecologically fragile area of Ningxia was used as the typical case area. This study constructs a “four main subjects and eight dimensions” comprehensive evaluation model based on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to analyze the situation of the resource and environmental carrying capacity (RECC). This study employs the coupled coordination degree model and the obstacle degree model, integrating them with Pearson correlation analysis to quantitatively evaluate the coupled coordination relationship and influencing factors between RECC and socioeconomic development in Ningxia. The study shows that: (a) the RECC in Ningxia is on an upward trend, with obvious spatial differences, and the pressure on resources and environment in the provincial capital city is more obvious; (b) the coordination of RECC and socioeconomic development coupling in Ningxia is on a steady upward trend, but the internal development differences are more obvious, and the degree of coordination in the provincial capital cities is relatively high; (c) the coordinated development of RECC and socioeconomic development is affected by a combination of factors such as climate, water, soil, ecological resources, urbanization, and traffic accessibility in Ningxia. The findings offer scientific support for the coordination of socioeconomic development and resource environmental protection in ecologically fragile regions. Furthermore, they serve as a reference for promoting ecological civilization construction in fragile ecosystems globally.

生态脆弱地区资源、环境与社会经济的协调发展已成为世界各国亟待解决的问题之一。本研究以宁夏生态脆弱区为典型案例区。本研究构建了基于可持续发展目标（SDGs）的 "四大主体、八大维度 "综合评价模型，对资源环境承载力（RECC）状况进行分析。本研究采用耦合协调度模型和障碍度模型，结合皮尔逊相关分析，定量评价宁夏资源环境承载力与社会经济发展之间的耦合协调关系和影响因素。研究表明(a）宁夏 RECC 呈上升趋势，空间差异明显，省会城市资源环境压力较为明显；b）宁夏 RECC 与社会经济发展耦合协调度呈稳步上升趋势，但内部发展差异较为明显，省会城市协调度相对较高；(c) 宁夏 RECC 与社会经济协调发展受气候、水、土壤、生态资源、城镇化、交通通达性等综合因素的影响。研究结果为生态脆弱地区社会经济发展与资源环境保护的协调提供了科学依据。此外，这些研究结果也为在全球范围内推进脆弱生态系统的生态文明建设提供了参考。

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引用次数: 0

Urban eco-efficiency of China: Spatial evolution, network characteristics, and influencing factors 中国城市生态效率：空间演变、网络特征和影响因素

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112641

Jian Zou , Rui Ding , Yuqi Zhu , Lina Peng , Shuyue Jiang

Urban eco-efficiency (EE) refers to the ability of a city to balance economic growth with environmental protection through the optimal use of resources and environmental management, reflecting the city’s performance in sustainable development. Quantitative EE analysis is a crucial evaluation criterion for measuring the process of sustainable development (SD). To assess the current state of sustainable development in China, this study employs the slacks-based super efficiency model (Super-SBM) to measure the the urban eco-efficiency in China (CUEE) of 284 cities. The study utilizes Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis (SAA) to investigate the fundamental patterns of CUEE in terms of inter-city differences and relationships. Complex Network Analysis (CNA) and Link Prediction methods are applied to examine the characteristics and future trends of the CUEE network. Additionally, Geodetector and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) are used to analyze the influencing factors of CUEE. The findings are as follows: Overall CUEE is relatively low but shows a steady increase. The spatial association network of CUEE is becoming more complex, with increasing association strengths. The Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle (CCEC) is expected to further enhance its spatial association strength and may emerge as a new core area. The effectiveness of the interactions among selected factors is greater than that of individual factors. Degree centrality (X1) is identified as a core explanatory factor influencing CUEE, showing a positive correlation with CUEE. Scientific expenditure (X5) is also positively correlated with CUEE. Local fiscal budget expenditure (X3), industrial output value of foreign-invested enterprises (X7), and total cargo transportation volume (X9) are negatively correlated with CUEE. The analytical framework and research conclusions of this study offer valuable insights into the development of urban ecological efficiency in China and provide constructive recommendations for promoting sustainable urban development.

城市生态效率（EE）是指城市通过优化资源利用和环境管理，在经济增长与环境保护之间取得平衡的能力，反映了城市在可持续发展方面的绩效。定量的 EE 分析是衡量可持续发展（SD）进程的重要评价标准。为评估中国的可持续发展现状，本研究采用基于松弛的超效率模型（Super-SBM）来衡量 284 个城市的中国城市生态效率（CUEE）。研究利用核密度估计（KDE）和空间自相关分析（SAA）从城市间差异和关系的角度研究了 CUEE 的基本模式。复杂网络分析（CNA）和链接预测方法用于研究 CUEE 网络的特征和未来趋势。此外，Geodetector 和地理加权回归 (GWR) 被用来分析 CUEE 的影响因素。研究结果如下：总体 CUEE 相对较低，但呈稳步增长趋势。CUEE 的空间关联网络日趋复杂，关联强度不断增加。成渝经济圈（CCEC）的空间关联强度有望进一步增强，并有可能成为新的核心区域。所选要素之间的相互作用效果大于单个要素的相互作用效果。度中心性（X1）被认为是影响 CUEE 的核心解释因子，与 CUEE 呈正相关。科学支出（X5）也与 CUEE 呈正相关。地方财政预算支出（X3）、外商投资企业工业产值（X7）和货物运输总量（X9）与 CUEE 负相关。本研究的分析框架和研究结论为中国城市生态效率的发展提供了有价值的启示，并为促进城市可持续发展提供了建设性建议。

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引用次数: 0

Spatial-temporal dynamics and influencing factors of city level carbon emission of mainland China 中国大陆城市碳排放的时空动态及其影响因素

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112672

Xu Pengfei , Zhou Guangyao , Zhao Qiuhao , Lu Yiqing , Chen Jingling

Urban areas are major sources of carbon emissions, making it crucial to understand their emission characteristics for effective carbon reduction and sustainable development. Using carbon emission data from mainland China (2001–2021), we analyzed the spatio-temporal dynamics and future trends of city-level emissions and explored influencing factors using machine learning methods. Results indicate significant fluctuations in carbon emissions, with over 40 % of mainland Chinese cities experiencing a doubling in total emissions. Geospatially, cities in South Coast (SC), East Coast (EC), Northeast (NE), and NorthCoast (NC) show stronger intensity and increasing trends in carbon emissions compared to other regions, with over 80 % of cities in these regions experiencing high or higher increases. Additionally, a continued rise in carbon emissions was detected in most Chinese cities, with an average Hurst index of 0.64, indicating persistent trends. Using the XGBoost method, factors such as population density, built-up area, urban green coverage rate, and GDP were found to strongly correlate with urban carbon emissions, exhibiting significant spatial heterogeneity. This research uncovers the characteristics and influencing factors of urban-scale carbon emissions, offering valuable insights for policymakers to tailor carbon reduction strategies to the specific needs and conditions of various urban areas.

城市是碳排放的主要来源，因此了解其排放特征对于有效减少碳排放和实现可持续发展至关重要。利用中国大陆的碳排放数据（2001-2021 年），我们分析了城市一级碳排放的时空动态和未来趋势，并利用机器学习方法探讨了影响因素。结果表明，碳排放量波动明显，超过 40% 的中国大陆城市的碳排放总量翻了一番。从地理空间上看，南部沿海、东部沿海、东北部和北部沿海城市的碳排放强度和增长趋势高于其他地区，这些地区超过 80% 的城市碳排放出现较高或更高的增长。此外，中国大多数城市的碳排放量呈持续上升趋势，平均赫斯特指数为 0.64，表明碳排放呈持续增长趋势。利用 XGBoost 方法，发现人口密度、建成区面积、城市绿化覆盖率和 GDP 等因素与城市碳排放密切相关，并表现出显著的空间异质性。这项研究揭示了城市尺度碳排放的特征和影响因素，为政策制定者根据不同城市地区的具体需求和条件制定碳减排战略提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Emerging research on characterizing the potential of cable bacteria for CH4 mitigation 关于电缆细菌减缓甲烷排放潜力特征的新兴研究

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112667

Jing Wang, Shouliang Huo, Nanyan Weng, Hanxiao Zhang

Methane (CH₄) contributes an essential portion for global warming as a pivotal greenhouse gas. Microorganisms are identified as an effective way to mediate and control CH₄ emission. Cable bacteria is a promising microorganism to mitigate CH₄, however, the studies of distribution, abundance and function for CH₄ reduction of cable bacteria in inland water still remain unclear. In this paper, we propose the probable CH₄ mitigation metabolism within cable bacteria in anoxic condition, and present the future research directions about the application potential of cable bacteria in CH₄ reduction. The viewpoint will help to understand the significant role of cable bacteria in CH₄ mitigation and provide a potential way to control CH₄ emissions in inland freshwater ecosystem.

甲烷（CH4）作为一种重要的温室气体，对全球变暖起着至关重要的作用。微生物被认为是调解和控制 CH4 排放的有效途径。缆索细菌是一种很有希望减缓 CH4 排放的微生物，然而，关于缆索细菌在内陆水体中的分布、丰度和减少 CH4 排放功能的研究仍不清楚。本文提出了缺氧条件下缆索细菌内可能的 CH4 减排代谢，并就缆索细菌在 CH4 减排中的应用潜力提出了未来的研究方向。这些观点将有助于理解缆索细菌在减缓 CH4 排放中的重要作用，并为控制内陆淡水生态系统中的 CH4 排放提供一种潜在的途径。

引用次数: 0

Ecosystem service value and ecological compensation in Qilian Mountain National Park: Implications for ecological conservation strategies 祁连山国家公园生态系统服务价值与生态补偿：对生态保护战略的影响

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112661

Baiting Zhang , Qi Feng , Zhixiang Lu , Zongxing Li , Baijuan Zhang , Wenju Cheng

Qilian Mountain National Park (QMNP) is a critical ecological barrier and water conservation area in northwestern China. Its diverse ecosystems provide significant ecosystem services, yet the valuation of these services and their dynamic responses to land use/cover (LULC) changes and ecological protection measures require detailed investigation. This study employs an improved equivalent factor method, tailored to the specific ecosystem types and LULC patterns of QMNP, to evaluate the ecosystem service value (ESV) across different LULC types. Using an elasticity analysis model, the sensitivity of ESV to LULC changes from 1990 to 2022 was quantitatively assessed. The results indicate that the ESV of QMNP increased from 46.13 billion RMB to 50.97 billion RMB between 1990 and 2022, mostly due to the growth of grassland and forest areas. The primary route for increasing the region’s ESV is the conversion of desert to grassland, and this should be a major area of emphasis for next ecological conservation initiatives. Regulating services form the core of the ESV in QMNP, with climate and hydrological regulation contributing significantly to the overall ESV. Maintaining the stability of forest, wetland, and water body areas is crucial for sustaining the total ESV of QMNP. Through the application of carbon emission coefficients and ESV methods, the average range for long-term ecological compensation standards in QMNP is expected to be between 3.78 billion RMB and 28.28 billion RMB annually. Additionally, we explore the impacts of ongoing ecological protection mechanisms on enhancing ESV. There is a pressing need to formulate integrated policy frameworks that balance ecological conservation with sustainable economic development. The study also highlights the necessity of strengthening the protection and foundational research of grasslands and water bodies to enhance the ESV of QMNP. These insights serve as a foundation for potential planning and management strategies in QMNP, aiming to maintain and enhance its ecosystem functions and services, thereby contributing to broader regional and global ecological stability.

祁连山国家公园（QMNP）是中国西北部重要的生态屏障和水源保护区。其多样化的生态系统提供了重要的生态系统服务，然而这些服务的估值及其对土地利用/覆盖（LULC）变化和生态保护措施的动态响应需要详细的调查。本研究针对祁连山国家级自然保护区特定的生态系统类型和 LULC 模式，采用改进的等效因子法评估不同 LULC 类型的生态系统服务价值 (ESV)。利用弹性分析模型，定量评估了 1990 年至 2022 年期间 ESV 对 LULC 变化的敏感性。结果表明，从 1990 年到 2022 年，青铜峡国家级自然保护区的 ESV 从 461.3 亿元增加到 509.7 亿元，这主要归功于草地和森林面积的增长。增加该地区 ESV 的主要途径是将荒漠转化为草地，这应成为下一步生态保护措施的重点领域。调节服务是青铜峡国家自然保护区 ESV 的核心，其中气候和水文调节对总体 ESV 有重大贡献。保持森林、湿地和水体区域的稳定对于维持青铜峡国家公园的总 ESV 至关重要。通过应用碳排放系数和 ESV 方法，预计秦巴山区国家级自然保护区长期生态补偿标准的平均范围为每年 37.8 亿元人民币至 282.8 亿元人民币。此外，我们还探讨了现行生态保护机制对提高 ESV 的影响。目前迫切需要制定综合政策框架，以平衡生态保护与可持续经济发展。本研究还强调了加强草原和水体保护及基础研究以提高钦州保山国家公园 ESV 的必要性。这些见解为青铜峡国家公园潜在的规划和管理策略奠定了基础，旨在维护和增强其生态系统功能和服务，从而为更广泛的区域和全球生态稳定性做出贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Integrating ecosystem services trade-off, drivers and zoning into watershed water environment management in Nansihu Lake Basin, China 将生态系统服务权衡、驱动因素和分区纳入中国南四湖流域水环境管理

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112642

Xinqi Hu , Hongqi Wang , Qingqing Fang , Chenghu Chang , Aihua Li , Haihua Wang

A series of ecosystem services (ESs) have a significant impact on water environment. How these ESs can be integrated into water environment management in the lens of coupled human and natural system (CHANS) is still lack exploration. This study proposes an integrating framework that connects the ESs with water environment management to facilitate the watershed sustainable development. We employ the InVEST model to evaluate typical ESs in the Nansihu Lake Basin (largest freshwater lake in Shandong, China), and analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and trade-off of multiple ESs indicators. By revealing the interaction mechanism and key drivers of ESs and conducting ecological functional zoning, we investigate how ESs can facilitate water environment management in the Nansihu Lake Basin. The results indicated that: (1) The high-value areas of agricultural supply service are mainly distributed in the western plain area of the basin, while high-value areas of water provision, water purification and soil conservation services are in the mountainous and hilly areas in the eastern part of the basin. (2) There is a significant trade-off between crop supply service and water purification services. Crop and livestock supply services have a greater effect on water purification services (TN) than other services. (3) Crop area sown, total power of agricultural machinery and fertilizer application are the main drivers of water purification services (TN). (4) The basin can be divided into three ecological function zones, the agricultural production zone, the ecological regulation zone and the ecological redline zone. These findings imply that water environment management should be integrated with ESs by strengthening intersectoral collaboration, conducting zoning management in watershed planning and applying differentiated control measures in each zone. This includes optimizing the scale and structure of agriculture, and implementing circular economy and clean production practices. This study explored a comprehensive framework of integrating ESs into water environment management to facilitate the sustainable development of watershed.

一系列生态系统服务（ES）对水环境有着重要影响。在人与自然耦合系统（CHANS）的视角下，如何将这些生态系统服务纳入水环境管理仍缺乏探索。本研究提出了一个整合框架，将生态系统服务与水环境管理联系起来，以促进流域的可持续发展。我们采用 InVEST 模型评估了南四湖流域（中国山东最大的淡水湖）的典型生态系统服务，分析了多个生态系统服务指标的时空特征和权衡。通过揭示ESs的相互作用机制和关键驱动因子，并进行生态功能区划，探讨ESs如何促进南四湖流域的水环境管理。结果表明(1）农业供给服务的高价值区主要分布在流域西部平原区，而供水、水净化和水土保持服务的高价值区则分布在流域东部山区和丘陵区。(2) 农作物供水服务与水净化服务之间存在明显的权衡。作物和牲畜供给服务对水净化服务（TN）的影响大于其他服务。(3) 作物播种面积、农业机械总动力和化肥施用量是水净化服务（TN）的主要驱动因素。(4) 流域可划分为三个生态功能区，即农业生产区、生态调节区和生态红线区。这些研究结果表明，水环境管理应与生态系统服务相结合，加强部门间合作，在流域规划中进行分区管理，并在各区采取有区别的控制措施。这包括优化农业规模和结构，实施循环经济和清洁生产。本研究探讨了将环境系统融入水环境管理的综合框架，以促进流域的可持续发展。

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引用次数: 0

Spatial non-stationarity effects of the driving factors on landscape ecological risk: A case of the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou Urban Agglomeration, China 景观生态风险驱动因素的空间非平稳性效应：以中国厦漳泉城市群为例

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112660

Yuying Lin , Fazi Zhang , Yidong Jin , Linsheng Wen , Yanhua Yu , Lin Zhang , Aifang Weng , Yang Ge

Increasing construction land demands and population growth within urban agglomerations have led to increasingly prominent landscape ecological risk (LER) issues. However, the multi-scale nature and spatial non-stationarity characteristics of the driving patterns have not been fully investigated. In this study, taking the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou Urban Agglomeration (XZQUA) as a case, we analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of LER utilizing the long time series land use data from 1980 to 2020; then, the Exploratory Regression Analysis (ERA) was employed to investigate the optimal combination of key influential elements affecting LER. Finally, the Multiscale Geographically Weighted regression (MGWR) model was applied to explore the spatial non-stationarity effects of the key driving elements. The results reveal that: (1) The LER of the XZQUA has shown a declining trend from 1980 to 2020, characterized with significantly and increasingly spatial autocorrelation as well. (2) The optimal variable combination is the temperature, distance from roads, elevation, and construction land area. (3) The MGWR model results reveal that the impact of various factors on LER demonstrates significant spatial non-stationarity. The mechanisms and intensity of these influences change depending on geographical location. The negative proportion of regression coefficients for construction land area (−0.203 to −0.002) and elevation (−0.046 to −0.001) all exceeded 80%, indicating a high negative effect on LER; The positive proportion of the regression coefficient for distance from roads (−0.026 to 0.042) exceeded 60%, indicating a predominantly positive effect on LER. Our findings provide guidance for regional policymakers to adopt targeted ecological risk intervention measures, thus reducing LER in the urban agglomeration.

城市群内日益增长的建设用地需求和人口增长导致景观生态风险（LER）问题日益突出。然而，其驱动模式的多尺度性和空间非平稳性特征尚未得到充分研究。本研究以厦门-漳州-泉州城市群（XZQUA）为例，利用 1980-2020 年的土地利用长时间序列数据，分析了 LER 的时空演化特征；然后，采用探索性回归分析（ERA）研究了影响 LER 的关键影响要素的最优组合。最后，应用多尺度地理加权回归（MGWR）模型探讨关键驱动要素的空间非平稳性效应。结果表明(1) 从 1980 年到 2020 年，XZQUA 的 LER 呈下降趋势，空间自相关性显著且日益增强。(2）最佳变量组合为温度、道路距离、海拔高度和建设用地面积。(3）MGWR 模型结果表明，各种因素对 LER 的影响具有显著的空间非平稳性。这些影响的机制和强度随地理位置的不同而变化。建设用地面积（-0.203 至 -0.002）和海拔高度（-0.046 至 -0.001）的回归系数负比均超过 80%，表明对 LER 的负向影响较大；与道路距离（-0.026 至 0.042）的回归系数正比超过 60%，表明对 LER 的正向影响占主导地位。我们的研究结果为区域决策者采取有针对性的生态风险干预措施提供了指导，从而降低城市群的 LER。

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引用次数: 0

Integrating ecosystem stress into the assessment of ecosystem health in karst areas and exploring its driving factors 将生态系统压力纳入岩溶地区生态系统健康评估并探索其驱动因素

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112662

Xun Lin , Zhitai Wang , Yu Bao

Accurately evaluating the degree of ecosystem health and comprehending its drivers are of crucial importance for ecosystem management and restoration in fragile ecoregions. Adopting an ecosystem stress perspective, this investigation scientifically diagnosed ecosystem health in Guizhou Province, a typical karst fragile ecological area, by developing a “Vigor-Organization-Resilience-Stress” (VORS) regional ecosystem health assessment framework. The principal driving factors and their spatio-temporal heterogeneity influencing ecosystem health in karst regions were investigated using geographic detectors and geographically and temporally weighted regression. Our findings indicated that: (1) The ecosystem health in Guizhou province presents a spatial distribution pattern of lower in the western region and higher in the eastern region, and the average ecosystem health index (EHI) in 2000, 2010 and 2020 is 0.194, 0.246 and 0.254 respectively, indicating that the overall ecosystem health level in Guizhou province has improved with the passage of time. (2) The spatiotemporal variation of ecosystem stress in Guizhou Province is substantial; the pressure associated with land use is projected to increase, whereas the intensity of stress attributed to rocky desertification and soil erosion is anticipated to diminish over time. (3) The primary determinants influencing the health of ecosystems in karst environments are the social and economic elements. These factors progressively amplify their effect on ecosystem health as time passes. The new assessment framework we have established includes ecosystem integrity and ecological threats faced by the ecosystem, which provides a new perspective for understanding the complex internal characteristics of karst areas and the coupling relationship between human and natural ecosystems. The results of this study can provide scientific reference for land use and ecological management policies in fragile ecological areas.

准确评估生态系统健康程度并理解其驱动因素对于脆弱生态区的生态系统管理和恢复至关重要。本研究从生态系统应力的视角出发，通过建立 "活力-组织-恢复力-应力"（VORS）区域生态系统健康评估框架，对贵州省这一典型的喀斯特脆弱生态区域的生态系统健康状况进行了科学诊断。利用地理探测器和时空加权回归研究了影响岩溶地区生态系统健康的主要驱动因素及其时空异质性。研究结果表明(1）贵州省生态系统健康水平呈现西部地区较低、东部地区较高的空间分布格局，2000 年、2010 年和 2020 年的平均生态系统健康指数（EHI）分别为 0.194、0.246 和 0.254，表明随着时间的推移，贵州省生态系统健康水平总体有所提高。(2) 贵州省生态系统压力的时空变化较大；预计土地利用相关压力将增加，而石漠化和水土流失导致的压力强度将随着时间的推移而减弱。(3) 影响岩溶环境生态系统健康的主要决定因素是社会和经济因素。随着时间的推移，这些因素对生态系统健康的影响会逐渐扩大。我们建立的新评估框架包括生态系统的完整性和生态系统面临的生态威胁，这为了解岩溶地区复杂的内部特征以及人类与自然生态系统之间的耦合关系提供了一个新的视角。研究结果可为生态脆弱地区的土地利用和生态管理政策提供科学参考。

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