Ecological Indicators最新文献_第6页

Tracking biodiversity footprints embodied in the global supply chains of agricultural commodities: the examples of Germany and China 追踪农产品全球供应链中体现的生物多样性足迹：以德国和中国为例

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114663

Giorgio A. Bidoglio , Abhishek Chaudhary , Stefan Dullinger , Karl-Heinz Erb , Franz Essl , Fridolin Krausmann , Sarah Matej , Philipp Semenchuk , Thomas Kastner , Florian Schwarzmüller

As the world's globalized economies become more and more interconnected, agricultural production and its associated environmental impacts are increasingly driven by consumption in geographically distant places. This is a challenge when it comes to building more sustainable modes of consumption and developing accounting principles of environmental impacts. In this study, we quantified the land-use driven biodiversity loss embodied in the food consumption, i.e. the biodiversity footprints of Germany and China, two major economies relying greatly on the trade of agricultural products. We developed a spatially explicit and product specific database which combines a recently updated countryside species-area relationship (cSAR) model at a resolution of 10 × 10 km with spatial information on global land use and crop production to estimate the impending vertebrate species loss at the level of single grid cells (landscape level) and potential global species extinctions (global level). These complementary indicators reflect different ecological processes that influence patterns of species diversity, acting at different scales. By integrating the indicators into a dataset in global food trade and consumption data, we show that, despite large quantities of imports, for China's biodiversity footprint occurs largely domestically. For Germany the footprint is mostly (landscape level) to almost entirely (global level) driven by imports. These differences reflect different supply chains and sourcing countries, but also point at differences in the global distribution of species richness, endemism and IUCN threat level. We found that few key commodities like cocoa, coffee, soybeans and products of livestock grazing contribute the most to the biodiversity footprints of both countries. Our results emphasize the need of multiple, complementary and spatial indicators of biodiversity impacts at landscape and global level to better track and quantify consumption-driven biodiversity loss across products, sourcing countries and taxa.

随着世界上全球化的经济日益相互联系，农业生产及其相关的环境影响越来越多地受到地理上遥远地方消费的驱动。当涉及到建立更可持续的消费模式和制定环境影响的会计原则时，这是一个挑战。在本研究中，我们量化了土地利用驱动的生物多样性损失，体现在食物消费中，即德国和中国这两个主要依赖农产品贸易的经济体的生物多样性足迹。基于10 × 10 km分辨率的最新农村物种-面积关系（cSAR）模型，结合全球土地利用和作物生产的空间信息，开发了一个空间明确的产品特定数据库，以估算单个网格细胞（景观水平）水平上即将发生的脊椎动物物种损失和潜在的全球物种灭绝（全球水平）。这些互补的指标反映了在不同尺度上影响物种多样性模式的不同生态过程。通过将这些指标整合到全球食品贸易和消费数据集中，我们发现，尽管大量进口，但中国的生物多样性足迹主要发生在国内。对德国来说，碳足迹主要（景观层面）到几乎全部（全球层面）都是由进口驱动的。这些差异反映了不同的供应链和采购国，但也指出了物种丰富度、地方性和世界自然保护联盟威胁程度的全球分布差异。我们发现，可可、咖啡、大豆和畜牧产品等少数关键商品对两国的生物多样性足迹贡献最大。我们的研究结果强调，需要在景观和全球层面建立生物多样性影响的多重、互补和空间指标，以更好地跟踪和量化不同产品、来源国和分类群之间消费驱动的生物多样性损失。

{"title":"Tracking biodiversity footprints embodied in the global supply chains of agricultural commodities: the examples of Germany and China","authors":"Giorgio A. Bidoglio , Abhishek Chaudhary , Stefan Dullinger , Karl-Heinz Erb , Franz Essl , Fridolin Krausmann , Sarah Matej , Philipp Semenchuk , Thomas Kastner , Florian Schwarzmüller","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114663","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114663","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the world's globalized economies become more and more interconnected, agricultural production and its associated environmental impacts are increasingly driven by consumption in geographically distant places. This is a challenge when it comes to building more sustainable modes of consumption and developing accounting principles of environmental impacts. In this study, we quantified the land-use driven biodiversity loss embodied in the food consumption, i.e. the biodiversity footprints of Germany and China, two major economies relying greatly on the trade of agricultural products. We developed a spatially explicit and product specific database which combines a recently updated countryside species-area relationship (cSAR) model at a resolution of 10 × 10 km with spatial information on global land use and crop production to estimate the impending vertebrate species loss at the level of single grid cells (landscape level) and potential global species extinctions (global level). These complementary indicators reflect different ecological processes that influence patterns of species diversity, acting at different scales. By integrating the indicators into a dataset in global food trade and consumption data, we show that, despite large quantities of imports, for China's biodiversity footprint occurs largely domestically. For Germany the footprint is mostly (landscape level) to almost entirely (global level) driven by imports. These differences reflect different supply chains and sourcing countries, but also point at differences in the global distribution of species richness, endemism and IUCN threat level. We found that few key commodities like cocoa, coffee, soybeans and products of livestock grazing contribute the most to the biodiversity footprints of both countries. Our results emphasize the need of multiple, complementary and spatial indicators of biodiversity impacts at landscape and global level to better track and quantify consumption-driven biodiversity loss across products, sourcing countries and taxa.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114663"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Developing integrated ecological indicators for hydropower efficiency: a centralized DEA approach incorporating water resource reallocation and nonseparable variables 开发水电效率综合生态指标：一种包含水资源再分配和不可分离变量的集中式DEA方法

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114650

Li-Ting Yeh

Effective water reallocation is essential for sustaining performance in centralized hydroelectric systems under increasing climate variability. However, most prior DEA-based assessments emphasize plant-level efficiency and assume separable inputs and outputs, which limits their value for system-wide water–energy planning under centralized governance. To address this gap, this study develops a centralized data envelopment analysis (DEA) model. The model constructs integrated ecological indicators that treat water inputs and electricity outputs as nonseparable. The unique contribution of this framework lies in its ability to capture the joint production of water and energy. It provides system-level indicators that link seasonal water reallocation strategies to electricity generation performance. The model supports water resource reallocation planning by maximizing system-wide water–energy efficiency under centralized management. It is applied to 23 hydroelectric systems in Taiwan across three seasonal scenarios—wet, dry, and annual—to evaluate spatial and temporal efficiency adjustments. The results show that optimal water reallocation increases electricity output by 1.83% during the wet season and limits output losses to 4.12% during the dry season. Over the full year, the model improves overall system efficiency, reducing total discharge volume by 1.05% and increasing effective storage by 3.13%. These findings show that indicator-based evaluation can support centralized water–energy planning across seasons. The resulting indicators are intended to inform ecological resource management, including seasonal storage–release balance and scenario-based downstream-release considerations.

在气候变化日益加剧的情况下，有效的水资源再分配对于保持集中式水力发电系统的运行至关重要。然而，大多数先前基于dea的评估强调工厂层面的效率，并假设投入和产出是可分离的，这限制了它们在集中治理下的全系统水能规划的价值。为了解决这一差距，本研究开发了一个集中式数据包络分析（DEA）模型。该模型构建了将水投入和电产出视为不可分离的综合生态指标。这一框架的独特贡献在于它能够捕获水和能源的联合生产。它提供了将季节性水再分配战略与发电性能联系起来的系统级指标。该模型通过在集中管理下最大化全系统的水-能源效率来支持水资源再分配规划。本研究以台湾23个水力发电系统为研究对象，分湿、干、年三个季节，评估其时空效率调整。结果表明，优化后的调水方案使旱季发电量提高1.83%，旱季发电量损失控制在4.12%。全年来看，该模型提高了系统整体效率，总放水量减少了1.05%，有效库存量增加了3.13%。这些发现表明，基于指标的评价可以支持跨季节的集中水能规划。结果指标旨在为生态资源管理提供信息，包括季节性储放平衡和基于场景的下游释放考虑。

{"title":"Developing integrated ecological indicators for hydropower efficiency: a centralized DEA approach incorporating water resource reallocation and nonseparable variables","authors":"Li-Ting Yeh","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114650","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114650","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective water reallocation is essential for sustaining performance in centralized hydroelectric systems under increasing climate variability. However, most prior DEA-based assessments emphasize plant-level efficiency and assume separable inputs and outputs, which limits their value for system-wide water–energy planning under centralized governance. To address this gap, this study develops a centralized data envelopment analysis (DEA) model. The model constructs integrated ecological indicators that treat water inputs and electricity outputs as nonseparable. The unique contribution of this framework lies in its ability to capture the joint production of water and energy. It provides system-level indicators that link seasonal water reallocation strategies to electricity generation performance. The model supports water resource reallocation planning by maximizing system-wide water–energy efficiency under centralized management. It is applied to 23 hydroelectric systems in Taiwan across three seasonal scenarios—wet, dry, and annual—to evaluate spatial and temporal efficiency adjustments. The results show that optimal water reallocation increases electricity output by 1.83% during the wet season and limits output losses to 4.12% during the dry season. Over the full year, the model improves overall system efficiency, reducing total discharge volume by 1.05% and increasing effective storage by 3.13%. These findings show that indicator-based evaluation can support centralized water–energy planning across seasons. The resulting indicators are intended to inform ecological resource management, including seasonal storage–release balance and scenario-based downstream-release considerations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114650"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Improving predictions of soil heterotrophic respiration: A parameter-optimized microbial model for alpine meadows in the three-river source region, Qinghai-Tibet plateau 改进土壤异养呼吸预测：青藏高原三江源高寒草甸微生物模型参数优化

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114673

Yongkang Lu , Sheng Yu , Mingxue Xiang , Kai Zheng , Tao Ma , Zhaoqi Wang

As a critical pathway in soil organic carbon release, soil heterotrophic respiration (R_h) has simulation accuracy that impacts regional and global carbon cycle assessments. As a climate change hotspot, the Three Rivers Source Region (TRSR) exhibits considerable uncertainties in R_h modeling, constraining in-depth research on regional carbon cycles. In this study, the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization (MIMICS) microbial model with an added moisture effect function is used for modeling R_h of alpine meadow in the TRSR. To initialize the model and optimize its parameters, we utilized four years of field-measured data from three sites (Maqin, Tongde, and Chenduo), including R_h, soil temperature, soil moisture, soil organic carbon, and microbial biomass carbon. Our results determine a set of generalized carbon pool parameters suitable for alpine meadow ecosystems across the study region. After selecting and optimizing high-sensitivity parameters, the model's simulation performance for soil R_h improved significantly, with R² remaining above 0.7 and the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) controlled within 11%–14%. Furthermore, relative to the original MIMICS model, integrating the moisture effect function increased the model's R² by 0.19–0.30. This study represents the attempt to refine the MIMICS model for R_h regulation, which not only provides a more accurate tool for simulating the carbon cycle of alpine meadow in the TRSR but also offers new insights into the coupling mechanisms between microbial models and environmental drivers.

土壤异养呼吸（Rh）作为土壤有机碳释放的重要途径，其模拟精度影响着区域和全球的碳循环评估。作为气候变化热点地区，三江源区Rh模型存在较大的不确定性，制约了区域碳循环的深入研究。本研究采用添加水分效应函数的微生物-矿物碳稳定（MIMICS）微生物模型对TRSR高寒草甸的Rh进行建模。为了对模型进行初始化和参数优化，我们利用了马琴、同德和陈铎3个站点4年的土壤湿度、土壤温度、土壤有机碳和微生物生物量碳等野外实测数据。我们的研究结果确定了一套适用于整个研究区高寒草甸生态系统的广义碳库参数。选择并优化高灵敏度参数后，模型对土壤Rh的模拟性能显著提高，R2保持在0.7以上，相对均方根误差（RRMSE）控制在11% ~ 14%之间。此外，与原始MIMICS模型相比，整合水分效应函数使模型的R2提高了0.19-0.30。本研究对MIMICS模型进行了完善，不仅为模拟TRSR高寒草甸碳循环提供了更准确的工具，而且为微生物模型与环境驱动因素之间的耦合机制提供了新的见解。

{"title":"Improving predictions of soil heterotrophic respiration: A parameter-optimized microbial model for alpine meadows in the three-river source region, Qinghai-Tibet plateau","authors":"Yongkang Lu , Sheng Yu , Mingxue Xiang , Kai Zheng , Tao Ma , Zhaoqi Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114673","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114673","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a critical pathway in soil organic carbon release, soil heterotrophic respiration (R<sub>h</sub>) has simulation accuracy that impacts regional and global carbon cycle assessments. As a climate change hotspot, the Three Rivers Source Region (TRSR) exhibits considerable uncertainties in R<sub>h</sub> modeling, constraining in-depth research on regional carbon cycles. In this study, the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization (MIMICS) microbial model with an added moisture effect function is used for modeling R<sub>h</sub> of alpine meadow in the TRSR. To initialize the model and optimize its parameters, we utilized four years of field-measured data from three sites (Maqin, Tongde, and Chenduo), including R<sub>h</sub>, soil temperature, soil moisture, soil organic carbon, and microbial biomass carbon. Our results determine a set of generalized carbon pool parameters suitable for alpine meadow ecosystems across the study region. After selecting and optimizing high-sensitivity parameters, the model's simulation performance for soil R<sub>h</sub> improved significantly, with R<sup>2</sup> remaining above 0.7 and the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) controlled within 11%–14%. Furthermore, relative to the original MIMICS model, integrating the moisture effect function increased the model's R<sup>2</sup> by 0.19–0.30. This study represents the attempt to refine the MIMICS model for R<sub>h</sub> regulation, which not only provides a more accurate tool for simulating the carbon cycle of alpine meadow in the TRSR but also offers new insights into the coupling mechanisms between microbial models and environmental drivers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114673"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Nutrient stoichiometry and limitations shift as cyanobacterial inoculation-induced biocrusts develop 随着蓝藻接种诱导的生物结壳的发展，营养化学计量学和限制发生了变化

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114634

Lu Chen , Xinwen Xu , Matthew A. Bowker , Longkat A. Gufwan , Li Wu , Shubin Lan

Cyanobacterial inoculation has been recognized as a promising strategy for promoting the development of biological soil crusts (biocrusts) and combating desertification. However, the long-term shifts in enzyme dynamics, nutrient limitations, and stoichiometric balance during induced biocrust development remain poorly understood. In this study, we quantified changes of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) contents, corresponding stoichiometric ratios, and enzyme activities in both biocrusts and subsurface layers soil at long-term restoration sites in the Qubqi Desert, where cyanobacteria were inoculated approximately two decades ago. The induced biocrust communities underwent a clear successional trajectory, from shifting sand to cyanobacteria- and finally to moss-dominated types, accompanied by substantial increases in organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and the major stoichiometric ratios (C: N, C: P, and N: P) in both biocrusts and subsurface soils. Vector analysis of enzyme activities revealed a shift in microbial nutrient demand along with induced-biocrust development, from N limitation to P limitation or co-limitation of C and P, while the subsurface soils remained N limited. Assessments of stoichiometric imbalance between biocrust and subsurface soils indicated a growing vertical nutrient stratification and decoupling with increasingly pronounced C: P and N: P imbalances as induced biocrust development progressed, suggesting increased P demand and unique P-related metabolic processes within developed biocrusts. Our findings highlight that cyanobacterially induced biocrusts not only enrich soil fertility and alter nutrient limitations but also create vertical heterogeneity in soil stoichiometry. All these findings underscore the importance of understanding P cycling within biocrust ecosystems to support the long-term stability and sustainability of biocrust-based desert soil restoration practices.

蓝藻接种已被认为是促进生物土壤结皮（生物结皮）的发展和防治荒漠化的一种有前途的策略。然而，在诱导生物结壳发育过程中，酶动力学、营养限制和化学计量平衡的长期变化仍然知之甚少。在这项研究中，我们量化了在大约20年前接种蓝藻的库布齐沙漠长期恢复点生物结皮和亚表层土壤中碳(C)、氮(N)和磷(P)含量、相应的化学计量比和酶活性的变化。诱导生物结皮群落经历了一个明显的演替轨迹，从流沙到蓝藻，最后到苔藓为主的类型，并伴随着生物结皮和地下土壤中有机碳（SOC）、全氮（TN）、全磷（TP）和主要化学计量比（C: N、C: P和N: P）的大幅增加。酶活性的载体分析显示，随着诱导生物结皮的发育，微生物养分需求发生了转变，从氮限制到磷限制或碳磷共同限制，而地下土壤仍然是氮限制。对生物硬壳和地下土壤化学计量失衡的评估表明，随着生物硬壳发育的进展，垂直养分分层和解耦日益明显，C: P和N: P失衡日益明显，这表明在发育的生物硬壳中，磷需求增加，磷相关代谢过程独特。研究结果表明，蓝藻诱导的生物结皮不仅能提高土壤肥力，改变养分限制，而且还会造成土壤化学计量的垂直异质性。所有这些发现都强调了了解生物硬壳生态系统中磷循环对支持基于生物硬壳的荒漠土壤恢复实践的长期稳定性和可持续性的重要性。

{"title":"Nutrient stoichiometry and limitations shift as cyanobacterial inoculation-induced biocrusts develop","authors":"Lu Chen , Xinwen Xu , Matthew A. Bowker , Longkat A. Gufwan , Li Wu , Shubin Lan","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114634","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114634","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cyanobacterial inoculation has been recognized as a promising strategy for promoting the development of biological soil crusts (biocrusts) and combating desertification. However, the long-term shifts in enzyme dynamics, nutrient limitations, and stoichiometric balance during induced biocrust development remain poorly understood. In this study, we quantified changes of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) contents, corresponding stoichiometric ratios, and enzyme activities in both biocrusts and subsurface layers soil at long-term restoration sites in the Qubqi Desert, where cyanobacteria were inoculated approximately two decades ago. The induced biocrust communities underwent a clear successional trajectory, from shifting sand to cyanobacteria- and finally to moss-dominated types, accompanied by substantial increases in organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and the major stoichiometric ratios (C: N, C: P, and N: P) in both biocrusts and subsurface soils. Vector analysis of enzyme activities revealed a shift in microbial nutrient demand along with induced-biocrust development, from N limitation to P limitation or co-limitation of C and P, while the subsurface soils remained N limited. Assessments of stoichiometric imbalance between biocrust and subsurface soils indicated a growing vertical nutrient stratification and decoupling with increasingly pronounced C: P and N: P imbalances as induced biocrust development progressed, suggesting increased P demand and unique P-related metabolic processes within developed biocrusts. Our findings highlight that cyanobacterially induced biocrusts not only enrich soil fertility and alter nutrient limitations but also create vertical heterogeneity in soil stoichiometry. All these findings underscore the importance of understanding P cycling within biocrust ecosystems to support the long-term stability and sustainability of biocrust-based desert soil restoration practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114634"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146024723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Functional trait responses of macroinvertebrate communities to low-head dams in headwater streams 源流低水头坝对大型无脊椎动物群落功能性状的响应

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114676

Yuzhou Zhang , Xi Zhu , Yijun Shi , Zhijian Tao , Xiang Li , Zhiyu Zhang , Yunzhi Yan , Yihao Ge

Headwater streams are vital components of river basins, supporting water retention, hydrological regulation, purification, biodiversity, and ecological connectivity, thereby sustaining watershed integrity. Although headwater streams perform essential ecological functions, the prevalence of low-head dams is a common feature in mountainous catchments, while their effects on benthic macroinvertebrate community structure remain poorly understood. In this study, we examined how low-head dams influence macroinvertebrate communities in subtropical headwater streams by contrasting undisturbed upstream reference reaches with paired impoundment sites upstream of dams and scouring sites downstream of dams. Physical habitat conditions differed markedly among site types: impoundment reaches exhibited slower flow, wider channels, and finer sediments, whereas scouring reaches were characterized by high current velocities, exposed substrates, and increased presence of artificial materials. Consistent with these habitat changes, species richness declined in impoundment and scouring sites, and community composition differed significantly among site types. β-diversity partitioning revealed that species replacement, rather than richness differences, was the main driver of community differentiation. Functional trait analyses demonstrated pronounced trait-mediated responses: impoundment sites were dominated by long-lived, large-bodied, burrowing taxa with low drift propensity, whereas scouring sites supported small-bodied, highly mobile taxa with strong swimming ability, clinger or swimmer habits, and filter-feeding strategies. Multivariate analyses confirmed strong correlations between environmental gradients and multiple functional traits, highlighting the deterministic role of environmental filtering under altered hydrological conditions. These findings provide trait-based insights into the ecological consequences of low-head dams in headwater streams and underscore the importance of incorporating functional trait perspectives into sustainable management practices aimed at conserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem functioning in regulated headwater systems.

源头溪流是河流流域的重要组成部分，支持保水、水文调节、净化、生物多样性和生态连通性，从而维持流域的完整性。虽然源流具有重要的生态功能，但低水头水坝的普遍存在是山区集水区的一个共同特征，而它们对底栖大型无脊椎动物群落结构的影响尚不清楚。在这项研究中，我们通过对比未受干扰的上游参考河段与水坝上游的成对蓄水点和水坝下游的冲刷点，研究了低水头水坝对亚热带源流中大型无脊椎动物群落的影响。不同场地类型的自然生境条件存在显著差异：蓄水河段水流较慢，河道较宽，沉积物较细，而冲刷河段水流速度较快，基材暴露，人工物质增加。与生境变化相一致的是，蓄水点和冲刷点的物种丰富度下降，群落组成在不同的样地类型之间存在显著差异。β-多样性划分表明，物种替代而非丰富度差异是群落分化的主要驱动力。功能性状分析显示了显著的性状调节反应：蓄水点以寿命长、体型大、穴居、漂移倾向低的类群为主，而冲刷点则以体型小、流动性强、游泳能力强、具有黏着或游泳习惯和滤食策略的类群为主。多变量分析证实了环境梯度与多种功能性状之间的强相关性，突出了水文条件变化下环境过滤的决定性作用。这些发现为源头低水头水坝的生态后果提供了基于性状的见解，并强调了将功能性状观点纳入可持续管理实践的重要性，旨在保护生物多样性和维持受管制的源头系统的生态系统功能。

{"title":"Functional trait responses of macroinvertebrate communities to low-head dams in headwater streams","authors":"Yuzhou Zhang , Xi Zhu , Yijun Shi , Zhijian Tao , Xiang Li , Zhiyu Zhang , Yunzhi Yan , Yihao Ge","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114676","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114676","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Headwater streams are vital components of river basins, supporting water retention, hydrological regulation, purification, biodiversity, and ecological connectivity, thereby sustaining watershed integrity. Although headwater streams perform essential ecological functions, the prevalence of low-head dams is a common feature in mountainous catchments, while their effects on benthic macroinvertebrate community structure remain poorly understood. In this study, we examined how low-head dams influence macroinvertebrate communities in subtropical headwater streams by contrasting undisturbed upstream reference reaches with paired impoundment sites upstream of dams and scouring sites downstream of dams. Physical habitat conditions differed markedly among site types: impoundment reaches exhibited slower flow, wider channels, and finer sediments, whereas scouring reaches were characterized by high current velocities, exposed substrates, and increased presence of artificial materials. Consistent with these habitat changes, species richness declined in impoundment and scouring sites, and community composition differed significantly among site types. β-diversity partitioning revealed that species replacement, rather than richness differences, was the main driver of community differentiation. Functional trait analyses demonstrated pronounced trait-mediated responses: impoundment sites were dominated by long-lived, large-bodied, burrowing taxa with low drift propensity, whereas scouring sites supported small-bodied, highly mobile taxa with strong swimming ability, clinger or swimmer habits, and filter-feeding strategies. Multivariate analyses confirmed strong correlations between environmental gradients and multiple functional traits, highlighting the deterministic role of environmental filtering under altered hydrological conditions. These findings provide trait-based insights into the ecological consequences of low-head dams in headwater streams and underscore the importance of incorporating functional trait perspectives into sustainable management practices aimed at conserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem functioning in regulated headwater systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114676"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147398426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Internal phosphorus loading drives long-term eutrophication trends and short-term deviations in a shallow hypertrophic lake 内部磷负荷驱动浅富营养化湖泊长期富营养化趋势和短期偏差

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114657

Olga Tammeorg , Gertrud Nürnberg , Theis Kragh , Jussi Vesterinen , Veli-Pekka Salonen , Peeter Nõges , Priit Tammeorg

Enäjärvi is one of the numerous lakes that have experienced increasing blooms of cyanobacteria. We hypothesized that the cause includes an increasing role of internal phosphorus (P) loading. Using a long-term data series (1997–2024), we quantified the internal P load as IL_{in situ} (based on an increase in TP mass in the water column over summer), and analysed its annual variation and potential causal mechanisms. For mechanistic insights, we measured the redox potential and sediment characteristics, and computed sediment P release rates (by diffusion) at three sampling sites in June, August and October 2024. Finally, we conducted a hydroacoustic survey to support the spatial resolution of the studies on sediment P dynamics. The internal P load increased over the years from 1997 to 2024 and correlated with the chlorophyll a concentration, water transparency (Secchi), and the cyanobacterial biomass and its proportion of the phytoplankton biomass. The increase in the internal P load was primarily attributed to an increase in the anoxic area factor (a measure of anoxia), and additionally to a decrease in the water level. Our short-term studies confirmed a governing role of redox-related P release through the observation of 1) (anoxic) P-releasing sediment surfaces during summer and 2) a significant positive relationship between the sediment P release rate and the concentration of iron-bound P. In general, the sediment organic matter content has increased in the long term together with an increase in the internal P load and eutrophication. In addition, the pool of sediment P has remained high over the long term, suggesting that previous restoration measures have been ineffective in reducing the internal P load. The hydroacoustic survey revealed a good representativeness (approximately 82%) of the lake sediment characteristics by the three sites sampled in the current study. Consequently, measures to reduce the legacy P input are needed to combat the eutrophication trend with ongoing climate change in Enäjärvi, as in other similar shallow lakes.

Enäjärvi是众多湖泊之一，经历了越来越多的蓝藻繁殖。我们推测其原因包括体内磷(P)负荷的增加。利用1997-2024年的长期数据序列，我们将内部磷负荷量化为原位（基于夏季水柱中总磷质量的增加），并分析了其年变化和潜在的因果机制。为了深入了解机理，我们于2024年6月、8月和10月在三个采样点测量了氧化还原电位和沉积物特征，并计算了沉积物P的释放速率（通过扩散）。最后，我们进行了水声调查，以支持沉积物P动力学研究的空间分辨率。1997 ~ 2024年，水体内磷负荷呈增加趋势，且与叶绿素a浓度、水体透明度（Secchi）、蓝藻生物量及其占浮游植物生物量的比例相关。内部磷负荷的增加主要是由于缺氧面积因子（一种衡量缺氧程度的指标）的增加，另外是由于水位的下降。我们的短期研究通过观察1)夏季（缺氧）P释放沉积物表面，2)沉积物P释放速率与铁结合P浓度之间的显著正相关关系，证实了氧化还原相关P释放的调控作用。总的来说，沉积物有机质含量在长期内增加，内部P负荷增加，富营养化。此外，沉积物P池长期保持较高水平，表明以往的修复措施对降低内部P负荷无效。水声调查结果显示，本研究中三个采样点的湖泊沉积物特征具有良好的代表性（约82%）。因此，需要采取措施减少遗留磷输入，以对抗Enäjärvi和其他类似浅湖随着持续气候变化而出现的富营养化趋势。

{"title":"Internal phosphorus loading drives long-term eutrophication trends and short-term deviations in a shallow hypertrophic lake","authors":"Olga Tammeorg , Gertrud Nürnberg , Theis Kragh , Jussi Vesterinen , Veli-Pekka Salonen , Peeter Nõges , Priit Tammeorg","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114657","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114657","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Enäjärvi is one of the numerous lakes that have experienced increasing blooms of cyanobacteria. We hypothesized that the cause includes an increasing role of internal phosphorus (P) loading. Using a long-term data series (1997–2024), we quantified the internal P load as IL<sub>in situ</sub> (based on an increase in TP mass in the water column over summer), and analysed its annual variation and potential causal mechanisms. For mechanistic insights, we measured the redox potential and sediment characteristics, and computed sediment P release rates (by diffusion) at three sampling sites in June, August and October 2024. Finally, we conducted a hydroacoustic survey to support the spatial resolution of the studies on sediment P dynamics. The internal P load increased over the years from 1997 to 2024 and correlated with the chlorophyll <em>a</em> concentration, water transparency (Secchi), and the cyanobacterial biomass and its proportion of the phytoplankton biomass. The increase in the internal P load was primarily attributed to an increase in the anoxic area factor (a measure of anoxia), and additionally to a decrease in the water level. Our short-term studies confirmed a governing role of redox-related P release through the observation of 1) (anoxic) P-releasing sediment surfaces during summer and 2) a significant positive relationship between the sediment P release rate and the concentration of iron-bound P. In general, the sediment organic matter content has increased in the long term together with an increase in the internal P load and eutrophication. In addition, the pool of sediment P has remained high over the long term, suggesting that previous restoration measures have been ineffective in reducing the internal P load. The hydroacoustic survey revealed a good representativeness (approximately 82%) of the lake sediment characteristics by the three sites sampled in the current study. Consequently, measures to reduce the legacy P input are needed to combat the eutrophication trend with ongoing climate change in Enäjärvi, as in other similar shallow lakes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114657"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatially explicit modeling and scenario-based projections of LULC-driven carbon stock changes in Japan 日本lulc驱动的碳储量变化的空间显式建模和情景预测

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114646

Bailing Zhang , Jing Kang , Norihiro Itsubo

Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of terrestrial ecosystem carbon stock is essential for effective climate mitigation and land management. This study presents a spatially explicit modeling approach to estimate historical and project future carbon stock changes across Japan from 2001 to 2050. Future projections were generated under three alternative land-use scenarios, including Business-as-Usual (BAU), Conservation, and High-Development pathways. Annual land use/land cover (LULC) maps were combined with class-specific carbon density parameters to calculate grid-level carbon stocks. Intertemporal differences in carbon stocks were computed at the pixel scale, enabling the identification of spatially heterogeneous carbon gains and losses. Future land transitions and carbon trajectories were projected using a CA-Markov model calibrated on observed LULC changes. Across all scenarios, total national carbon stock remains relatively stable, with changes of less than 3%; however, pronounced spatial disparities persist. Southwestern regions, particularly Kyushu and Shikoku, exhibit consistent carbon gains, whereas northeastern prefectures and northern Hokkaido show persistent declines. Forest loss accounts for approximately 8–9% of the total forest area and is overwhelmingly dominated by transitions to grass–savanna systems (>92%), while direct conversion to urban land remains negligible (≤0.15%). This indicates that the predominant contributors to forest carbon change are low-intensity land-cover transitions, and that carbon losses associated with direct urban expansion are highly limited in Japan.

了解陆地生态系统碳储量的时空动态对有效减缓气候变化和土地管理至关重要。本研究提出了一种空间显式建模方法来估计日本2001 - 2050年的历史和未来碳储量变化。未来的预测是在三种不同的土地利用情景下得出的，包括“一切照旧”、“保护”和“高度发展”路径。将土地利用/土地覆盖（LULC）年图与类别碳密度参数相结合，计算栅格级碳储量。在像素尺度上计算碳储量的跨期差异，从而能够识别空间异质性的碳收益和损失。使用CA-Markov模型对观测到的LULC变化进行校准，预测了未来的土地过渡和碳轨迹。在所有情景下，全国碳储量总量保持相对稳定，变化幅度小于3%；然而，明显的空间差异仍然存在。西南地区，特别是九州和四国，碳排放持续增加，而东北地区和北海道北部则持续下降。森林损失约占森林总面积的8-9%，绝大多数是向草木稀树草原系统的过渡（>92%），而直接转化为城市土地仍然可以忽略不计（≤0.15%）。这表明，森林碳变化的主要贡献者是低强度的土地覆盖过渡，而与直接城市扩张相关的碳损失在日本非常有限。

{"title":"Spatially explicit modeling and scenario-based projections of LULC-driven carbon stock changes in Japan","authors":"Bailing Zhang , Jing Kang , Norihiro Itsubo","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114646","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114646","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of terrestrial ecosystem carbon stock is essential for effective climate mitigation and land management. This study presents a spatially explicit modeling approach to estimate historical and project future carbon stock changes across Japan from 2001 to 2050. Future projections were generated under three alternative land-use scenarios, including Business-as-Usual (BAU), Conservation, and High-Development pathways. Annual land use/land cover (LULC) maps were combined with class-specific carbon density parameters to calculate grid-level carbon stocks. Intertemporal differences in carbon stocks were computed at the pixel scale, enabling the identification of spatially heterogeneous carbon gains and losses. Future land transitions and carbon trajectories were projected using a CA-Markov model calibrated on observed LULC changes. Across all scenarios, total national carbon stock remains relatively stable, with changes of less than 3%; however, pronounced spatial disparities persist. Southwestern regions, particularly Kyushu and Shikoku, exhibit consistent carbon gains, whereas northeastern prefectures and northern Hokkaido show persistent declines. Forest loss accounts for approximately 8–9% of the total forest area and is overwhelmingly dominated by transitions to grass–savanna systems (>92%), while direct conversion to urban land remains negligible (≤0.15%). This indicates that the predominant contributors to forest carbon change are low-intensity land-cover transitions, and that carbon losses associated with direct urban expansion are highly limited in Japan.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114646"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analyzing the spatial intercorrelations of hydrological ecosystem services of different land use/land cover at the catchment scale 流域不同土地利用/覆被水文生态系统服务空间相互关系分析

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114628

Yung-Chieh Wang , Li-Chi Chiang , Zi-Rong Yu , Pin-Chih Shih

Understanding the spatial dynamics and interactions of hydrological ecosystem services (HES) is critical for sustainable watershed management under increasing land use pressure and climate variability. This study evaluates five key HES indicators—freshwater provision, green water scarcity, green water vulnerability, flood regulation, and erosion regulation—in the Zhuoshui River Basin, Taiwan, using the SWAT model for the period 2002–2020. Spatial autocorrelation (global and local Moran's I) was employed to identify clustering patterns of high and low HES performance. The results reveal pronounced spatial disparities: downstream areas experience higher green-water stress, especially during the wet season, whereas forested upstream regions provide stronger regulatory functions. Urban and agricultural zones exhibit reduced freshwater provision. Spearman's correlation analysis indicates trade-offs between freshwater provision and regulatory services in intensively managed landscapes, along with strong synergies among green-water-related indicators. ANOVA with Scheffé post hoc tests further confirms that land-use type significantly influences HES performance. Overall, the findings advance spatially explicit HES assessment and offer a decision-support framework to guide ecological restoration, land-use zoning, and climate-adaptation planning at the subbasin scale.

了解水文生态系统服务（HES）的空间动态和相互作用对于土地利用压力和气候变化下的可持续流域管理至关重要。本研究利用SWAT模型，对2002-2020年台湾卓水河流域的5个关键HES指标（淡水供应、绿水稀缺、绿水脆弱性、洪水调节和侵蚀调节）进行了评价。利用空间自相关（全局和局部Moran’s I）识别高、低HES性能的聚类模式。研究结果显示了明显的空间差异：下游地区的绿水压力更大，尤其是在雨季，而上游森林地区的绿水调节功能更强。城市和农业区的淡水供应减少。斯皮尔曼的相关性分析表明，在集约化管理的景观中，淡水供应和监管服务之间存在权衡，与绿水相关的指标之间存在强大的协同效应。方差分析与scheff事后检验进一步证实了土地利用类型显著影响HES绩效。总体而言，研究结果促进了空间显式HES评估，并为指导亚流域尺度的生态恢复、土地利用分区和气候适应规划提供了决策支持框架。

{"title":"Analyzing the spatial intercorrelations of hydrological ecosystem services of different land use/land cover at the catchment scale","authors":"Yung-Chieh Wang , Li-Chi Chiang , Zi-Rong Yu , Pin-Chih Shih","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114628","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114628","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the spatial dynamics and interactions of hydrological ecosystem services (HES) is critical for sustainable watershed management under increasing land use pressure and climate variability. This study evaluates five key HES indicators—freshwater provision, green water scarcity, green water vulnerability, flood regulation, and erosion regulation—in the Zhuoshui River Basin, Taiwan, using the SWAT model for the period 2002–2020. Spatial autocorrelation (global and local Moran's I) was employed to identify clustering patterns of high and low HES performance. The results reveal pronounced spatial disparities: downstream areas experience higher green-water stress, especially during the wet season, whereas forested upstream regions provide stronger regulatory functions. Urban and agricultural zones exhibit reduced freshwater provision. Spearman's correlation analysis indicates trade-offs between freshwater provision and regulatory services in intensively managed landscapes, along with strong synergies among green-water-related indicators. ANOVA with Scheffé post hoc tests further confirms that land-use type significantly influences HES performance. Overall, the findings advance spatially explicit HES assessment and offer a decision-support framework to guide ecological restoration, land-use zoning, and climate-adaptation planning at the subbasin scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114628"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The future of Colombian Andean forests under different deforestation scenarios 不同毁林情景下哥伦比亚安第斯森林的未来

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114605

Kristian Rubiano , Dennis Castillo Figueroa , Nicolás Bernal Guatibonza , Nicola Clerici

Deforestation is a major environmental threat in Colombia, particularly in the Andean region, which harbors exceptional biodiversity and provides critical ecosystem services. This study assessed the projected deforestation in Colombian Andean forests under two scenarios—Business as Usual -BAU- and Governance -GOV- for the 2018–2030 and 2030–2050 periods, using spatially explicit models. Forest types were classified based on national ecosystem maps, and changes were estimated for the Andes, and within National Natural Parks. Under the BAU scenario, deforestation is widespread, especially in Basal and Fragmented forests, which by 2050 show declines of up to 8 % and 5.4 %, respectively. In contrast, Andean and Sub-Andean forests exhibit lower losses, though still notable over time. The GOV scenario projects significantly lower deforestation rates across all forest types and periods, with total losses remaining below 0.5 %. Within protected areas, forest loss is limited (<0.8 %) under all scenarios, but higher under BAU, particularly in Catatumbo Barí and Cordillera de los Picachos parks. These findings highlight contrasting futures for Andean forests depending on governance pathways. While the BAU scenario reflects continued deforestation despite protection efforts, the GOV scenario underscores the positive impact of improved institutional frameworks and land-use policies. This study emphasizes the urgent need to strengthen governance and enforcement mechanisms, even within protected areas, to safeguard Colombian biodiversity and ecosystem services. Our projections offer a valuable tool for anticipating deforestation risks and inform adaptive, regionally tailored conservation strategies in one of South America's most ecologically important regions.

森林砍伐是哥伦比亚的主要环境威胁，特别是在安第斯地区，该地区拥有独特的生物多样性并提供关键的生态系统服务。本研究使用空间明确模型评估了2018-2030年和2030-2050年两种情景下哥伦比亚安第斯山脉森林的预估毁林情况——“一切照旧”（bau）和“治理”（gov）。根据国家生态系统图对森林类型进行了分类，并估计了安第斯山脉和国家自然公园内的变化。在BAU情景下，森林砍伐很普遍，特别是在基林和破碎林，到2050年分别减少8%和5.4%。相比之下，安第斯和亚安第斯森林的损失较低，尽管随着时间的推移仍然显著。政府情景预测，所有森林类型和时期的毁林率将显著降低，总损失将保持在0.5%以下。在保护区内，森林损失在所有情况下都是有限的（0.8%），但在BAU情况下更高，特别是在卡塔通博Barí和科迪勒拉德洛斯皮卡克斯公园。这些发现突出了安第斯森林的不同未来，取决于不同的治理途径。BAU情景反映了尽管采取了保护措施，但森林砍伐仍在继续，而政府情景则强调了改善制度框架和土地使用政策的积极影响。本研究强调，迫切需要加强治理和执法机制，甚至在保护区内，以保护哥伦比亚的生物多样性和生态系统服务。我们的预测为预测森林砍伐风险提供了有价值的工具，并为南美洲生态最重要的地区之一的适应性、区域定制保护战略提供了信息。

{"title":"The future of Colombian Andean forests under different deforestation scenarios","authors":"Kristian Rubiano , Dennis Castillo Figueroa , Nicolás Bernal Guatibonza , Nicola Clerici","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114605","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114605","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Deforestation is a major environmental threat in Colombia, particularly in the Andean region, which harbors exceptional biodiversity and provides critical ecosystem services. This study assessed the projected deforestation in Colombian Andean forests under two scenarios—Business as Usual -BAU- and Governance -GOV- for the 2018–2030 and 2030–2050 periods, using spatially explicit models. Forest types were classified based on national ecosystem maps, and changes were estimated for the Andes, and within National Natural Parks. Under the BAU scenario, deforestation is widespread, especially in Basal and Fragmented forests, which by 2050 show declines of up to 8 % and 5.4 %, respectively. In contrast, Andean and Sub-Andean forests exhibit lower losses, though still notable over time. The GOV scenario projects significantly lower deforestation rates across all forest types and periods, with total losses remaining below 0.5 %. Within protected areas, forest loss is limited (<0.8 %) under all scenarios, but higher under BAU, particularly in Catatumbo Barí and Cordillera de los Picachos parks. These findings highlight contrasting futures for Andean forests depending on governance pathways. While the BAU scenario reflects continued deforestation despite protection efforts, the GOV scenario underscores the positive impact of improved institutional frameworks and land-use policies. This study emphasizes the urgent need to strengthen governance and enforcement mechanisms, even within protected areas, to safeguard Colombian biodiversity and ecosystem services. Our projections offer a valuable tool for anticipating deforestation risks and inform adaptive, regionally tailored conservation strategies in one of South America's most ecologically important regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114605"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unveiling critical morphological contributions in Forest vegetation carbon storage: An MSPA and explainable machine learning analysis of Jinhua City, China 揭示森林植被碳储量的关键形态贡献：金华市MSPA和可解释的机器学习分析

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114647

Zixuan Yang , Jie Xiang , Sheng Li , Hong Qian , Bin Dong

Forests act as critical carbon sink ecosystems, with their carbon sequestration capacity influenced by multiple factors. However, the long-term relationship between forest spatial morphological patterns and carbon storage remains insufficiently explored. This study focuses on Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province, using multi-source data from 2002 to 2020, including morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) metrics, climatic factors, land use types, and socioeconomic data. By employing MSPA and an explainable machine learning (ML) framework, we investigated the relationships between forest carbon storage and key influencing factors. The results indicate that: (1) Incorporating MSPA factors significantly enhances the predictive accuracy of vegetation carbon storage models. (2) NDVI, MSPA factors, and SSD (sunshine duration) are the most critical determinants of carbon storage levels, exhibiting pronounced nonlinear relationships with forest vegetation carbon storage. Specifically, NDVI, D_CORE (density of core), and SSD show the most significant positive contributions, whereas D_ISLET (density of islet), D_BRANCH (density of branch), and D_LOOP (density of loop) exhibit relatively lower and negative correlations. (3) Certain key influencing factors display threshold effects and optimal intervals. In Jinhua City, the significantly higher carbon sequestration benefits are associated with NDVI values ranging from 0.63 to 0.73, D_CORE between 63% and 89%, and SSD of 1482 h, providing actionable guidance for spatial planning. This study provides new insights into forest carbon management in Jinhua, suggesting that optimizing landscape ecological spatial patterns should be prioritized in ecological conservation efforts. Additionally, differentiated strategies should be developed for distinct regions to support sustainable forest management in alignment with China's dual carbon goals.

森林作为关键的碳汇生态系统，其固碳能力受到多种因素的影响。然而，森林空间形态模式与碳储量之间的长期关系尚未得到充分探讨。本文以浙江省金华市为研究对象，利用2002 - 2020年的多源数据，包括形态空间格局分析指标、气候因子、土地利用类型和社会经济数据。采用MSPA和可解释机器学习框架，研究了森林碳储量与关键影响因素之间的关系。结果表明：(1)纳入MSPA因子显著提高了植被碳储量模型的预测精度。(2) NDVI、MSPA因子和SSD（日照时数）是影响碳储量水平的最关键因素，与森林植被碳储量呈显著的非线性关系。其中，NDVI、D_CORE（核心密度）和SSD的正向贡献最为显著，而D_ISLET（胰岛密度）、D_BRANCH（分支密度）和D_LOOP（环路密度）的相关性相对较低，呈负相关。(3)某些关键影响因素表现出阈值效应和最优区间。金华市固碳效益显著较高，NDVI值在0.63 ~ 0.73之间，D_CORE值在63% ~ 89%之间，SSD值为1482 h，为空间规划提供了可操作的指导。该研究为金华市森林碳管理提供了新的思路，建议在生态保护工作中应优先优化景观生态空间格局。此外，应针对不同地区制定差异化战略，以支持与中国双碳目标相一致的可持续森林管理。

{"title":"Unveiling critical morphological contributions in Forest vegetation carbon storage: An MSPA and explainable machine learning analysis of Jinhua City, China","authors":"Zixuan Yang , Jie Xiang , Sheng Li , Hong Qian , Bin Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114647","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114647","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forests act as critical carbon sink ecosystems, with their carbon sequestration capacity influenced by multiple factors. However, the long-term relationship between forest spatial morphological patterns and carbon storage remains insufficiently explored. This study focuses on Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province, using multi-source data from 2002 to 2020, including morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) metrics, climatic factors, land use types, and socioeconomic data. By employing MSPA and an explainable machine learning (ML) framework, we investigated the relationships between forest carbon storage and key influencing factors. The results indicate that: (1) Incorporating MSPA factors significantly enhances the predictive accuracy of vegetation carbon storage models. (2) NDVI, MSPA factors, and SSD (sunshine duration) are the most critical determinants of carbon storage levels, exhibiting pronounced nonlinear relationships with forest vegetation carbon storage. Specifically, NDVI, D_CORE (density of core), and SSD show the most significant positive contributions, whereas D_ISLET (density of islet), D_BRANCH (density of branch), and D_LOOP (density of loop) exhibit relatively lower and negative correlations. (3) Certain key influencing factors display threshold effects and optimal intervals. In Jinhua City, the significantly higher carbon sequestration benefits are associated with NDVI values ranging from 0.63 to 0.73, D_CORE between 63% and 89%, and SSD of 1482 h, providing actionable guidance for spatial planning. This study provides new insights into forest carbon management in Jinhua, suggesting that optimizing landscape ecological spatial patterns should be prioritized in ecological conservation efforts. Additionally, differentiated strategies should be developed for distinct regions to support sustainable forest management in alignment with China's dual carbon goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114647"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0