Ecological Indicators最新文献_第5页

Attribution of runoff change and evaluation of water-balance closure based on a Budyko combined method of zonation, connectivity, and closure: a case study of the Xihan River basin in Northwest China 基于Budyko分带-连通性-截流组合方法的径流变化归因与水平衡截流评价——以西汉河流域为例

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114623

Dongyuan Sun , Guoyan Gao , Lanzhen Wu, Yanqiang Cui, Yali Ma, Xingfan Wang, Heping Shu

Abstract

Hydrological prediction and attribution in mountain to plain transition basins remain challenging because topographic zonation, groundwater surface water connectivity, and human regulation can induce structural bias and weaken closure consistency. This study develops an integrated framework that combines an enhanced partitioned, connectivity weighted, and closure consistent Budyko scheme with interpretable deep learning. Annual connectivity weights are derived from the baseflow index and embedded in the partitioned closure accounting. Climate and human contributions are cross validated using an elasticity method and Shapley decomposition under scenario designs. Key predictors are screened with the optimal Geodetector. Runoff prediction is performed using an ensemble of a Convolutional Neural Network, a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network, and Adaptive Boosting (CNN-BiLSTM-AdaBoost), and SHAP is applied to the prediction model to quantify driver contributions and diagnose threshold type responses. Results show that the annual runoff change point occurs in 1993. Both attribution approaches identify climate change as the dominant driver, with contributions of 82.4% and 85.5%, while human activities contribute 17.6% and 14.5%. SPEI_M, SPEI_P, SnSPI_P and Rx5day are identified as the primary meteorological drivers. The ensemble model achieves NSE values of 0.822 for training and 0.908 for testing. SHAP indicates relative contributions of 29.07% and 21.98% for SPEI_M and SPEI_P, respectively, and event scale precipitation shows a notable compensating effect around Rx5day of 49.2 mm. Spatially, mountainous zones are more sensitive to precipitation, enhanced evapotranspiration in the plains reduces outflow, and the integrated connectivity weights during the target period favor mountainous pathways. Overall, the framework unifies closure consistent attribution and interpretable prediction, providing a robust basis for diagnosing asymmetric hydrological responses and supporting management assessment in transition basins.

山地向平原过渡盆地的水文预测和归属仍然具有挑战性，因为地形区划、地下水地表水连通性和人为调节会导致结构偏差，削弱闭合一致性。本研究开发了一个集成框架，将增强的分区、连通性加权和闭包一致的Budyko方案与可解释的深度学习相结合。年度连通性权重是从基流指数派生出来的，并嵌入到分区封闭会计中。在情景设计下，使用弹性方法和Shapley分解交叉验证了气候和人类的贡献。关键的预测是筛选与最佳地理探测器。径流预测使用卷积神经网络、双向长短期记忆网络和自适应增强（CNN-BiLSTM-AdaBoost）的集合进行，并将SHAP应用于预测模型，以量化驱动因素的贡献并诊断阈值类型响应。结果表明，年径流变化点出现在1993年。两种归因方法均认为气候变化是主要驱动因素，贡献率分别为82.4%和85.5%，而人类活动贡献率分别为17.6%和14.5%。SPEI_M、SPEI_P、SnSPI_P和Rx5day是主要的气象驱动因子。集成模型的训练NSE值为0.822，测试NSE值为0.908。SHAP对SPEI_M和SPEI_P的相对贡献率分别为29.07%和21.98%，事件尺度降水在rx5 d （49.2 mm）附近表现出显著的补偿效应。从空间上看，山区对降水更为敏感，平原蒸散发的增强减少了径流，目标期的综合连通性权重有利于山区路径。总体而言，该框架统一了封闭性、一致性归因和可解释性预测，为过渡型流域不对称水文响应诊断和支持管理评价提供了坚实的基础。

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引用次数: 0

Based on Geodetector and GTWR models: Quantitative attribution of spatial distribution of marine fishery carbon sink resources in China 基于Geodetector和GTWR模型的中国海洋渔业碳汇资源空间分布定量归因

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114608

Yuan Chai , Xinjun Chen , Xiaoli Zhang , Jipeng Wei , Jing Wang

The spatial distribution of marine fishery carbon sinks is critical for evaluating regional ecological value and optimizing resource allocation. This study focuses on marine fishery carbon sinks in China nine coastal provinces (2004-2023). It first analyzes their spatiotemporal dynamics, then uses an integrated Geodetector-GTWR framework to quantify 20 influencing factors and their impact magnitudes.

Results show: (1) Total supply capacity of marine fishery carbon sinks increased overall, with marked spatial disparities, presenting an “high at both ends, low in the middle” and interspersed high-low distribution. Resource agglomeration zones shifted from northeast to southwest, forming a “north-higher-than-south” pattern and migrating toward offshore deep waters. (2) The spatial distribution is driven by interactions of 20 spatially heterogeneous factors (e.g., resident urbanization rate, total social fixed-asset investment, marine resources, and marine pollution). (3) Synergistic effects of 20 statistically significant factors (not individual factors) dominate the distribution pattern and drive supply capacity. Aquaculture pesticide intensity shows the most significant spatial heterogeneity; marine fishery carbon sink area exerts consistent positive effects across provinces. Notably, labor force size strengthens interactions with other factors most prominently, making it key for optimizing resource allocation. This study provides a scientific basis for region-specific management of marine fishery carbon sinks and supports China dual carbon goals.

海洋渔业碳汇空间分布对区域生态价值评价和资源优化配置具有重要意义。本文以2004-2023年中国沿海九省海洋渔业碳汇为研究对象。首先分析了它们的时空动态，然后使用Geodetector-GTWR集成框架量化了20个影响因素及其影响程度。结果表明：①海洋渔业碳汇总供给能力总体呈上升趋势，但空间差异明显，呈现“两端高，中间低”的高-低穿插分布；资源集聚带由东北向西南转移，形成“北高南低”的格局，并向近海深水区迁移。(2)居民城镇化率、社会固定资产投资总额、海洋资源、海洋污染等20个空间异质性因素共同驱动了空间分布。(3) 20个具有统计显著性的因素（非个别因素）的协同效应主导着配送格局，驱动着供给能力。水产养殖农药强度表现出最显著的空间异质性；海洋渔业碳汇面积在各省之间具有一致的正向效应。值得注意的是，劳动力规模与其他要素的相互作用增强最为显著，是优化资源配置的关键。本研究为海洋渔业碳汇区域管理提供了科学依据，并为中国的双碳目标提供了支持。

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引用次数: 0

Revealing the relationship between storm surge risks and coastal urbanization characteristics under sea level rise 海平面上升条件下风暴潮风险与沿海城市化特征的关系

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114626

Bo Luan , Xiulin Ye , Jianing Luo , Shiqi Xie , Chenxi Xia , Yangtongci Ning , Mingjian Zhu

Under the pressures of climate change and sea level rise (SLR), coastal cities like Shenzhen face escalating threats from storm surges. A critical research gap remains in the mechanistic understanding of how anthropogenic urbanization processes interact with these climatic hazards. This study takes Shenzhen as a representative hyper-urbanized coastal city and employs the MIKE 21 model to simulate exposure risks under combined SLR and storm surge scenarios. We also quantify the statistical linkages between key urbanization metrics and storm surge impacts. The results indicate that: (1) The maximum inundation extent from a 1000-year typhoon is 106.74 km² (5.34% of Shenzhen's land area), increasing to 119.50 km² (+11.95%) with the adverse SLR scenario; (2) Coastal urbanization characteristics correlate positively with storm surge risk, with artificial land use and reclaimed land area as key positive factors, whereas areas with high economic activities and better vegetation coverage may possess greater capacity for disaster reduction; (3) Land reclamation markedly amplifies risk, with 79.74% of reclaimed areas exposed, and artificial land on reclaimed terrain facing 1.69 times higher risk than that on original terrain; (4) High-density built-up areas and critical infrastructure experience disproportionately higher exposure, with artificial surfaces being 4.2 times more vulnerable than green spaces, underscoring the spatial inadequacy of existing green infrastructure for resilience. This study provides a scientific basis for climate adaptation and resilient spatial planning in Shenzhen and similar coastal cities.

在气候变化和海平面上升的压力下，深圳等沿海城市面临着日益严重的风暴潮威胁。在人为城市化进程如何与这些气候灾害相互作用的机制理解方面，仍然存在一个关键的研究空白。本研究以深圳为代表的沿海超城市化城市，采用MIKE 21模型模拟单反与风暴潮联合情景下的暴露风险。我们还量化了关键城市化指标与风暴潮影响之间的统计联系。结果表明：①千年一遇台风的最大淹没范围为106.74 km2（占深圳陆地面积的5.34%），在不利的单反情景下，最大淹没范围增加到119.50 km2 (+11.95%)；②沿海城市化特征与风暴潮风险呈正相关，人工土地利用和填海造地面积是关键的正相关因子，而经济活动高、植被覆盖好的地区减灾能力更强；(3)土地复垦明显放大了风险，复垦面积暴露率为79.74%，复垦地形上的人工土地风险是原始地形的1.69倍；(4)高密度建成区和关键基础设施的暴露程度不成比例地高，人工地面的脆弱性是绿地的4.2倍，凸显了现有绿色基础设施在弹性方面的空间不足。该研究为深圳及类似沿海城市的气候适应和弹性空间规划提供了科学依据。

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引用次数: 0

Shift in plant resource use strategies buffers against aridity-driven declines in grassland ecosystem multifunctionality 植物资源利用策略的转变缓冲了干旱驱动的草地生态系统多功能性下降

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114625

Fan Li , Xiaoting Wang , Weigang Hu , Abraham Allan Degen , Jiali Luo , Qingqing Hou , Longwei Dong , Xiaobing Dong , Bodong Yuan , Rui Xia , Zhiwei Zeng , Haiyang Gong , Ying Sun , Yan Deng , Junlan Xiong , Muhammad Aqeel , Jinzhi Ran , Jianming Deng

Drought is affecting grassland plant communities and ecosystem multifunctionality (EMF), but it remains uncertain how drought alters plant communities and, in turn, how such alterations affect EMF. To fill this gap, we examined the plant communities, soil properties and EMF along a natural gradient of aridity within the grassland ecosystems of northern China. As aridity intensified, plant species richness, multiple ecosystem functions (e.g., soil nutrient availability, above- and belowground biomass), and overall EMF declined (P < 0.05), while community-level plant traits exhibited a marked tendency towards being more resource-conservative strategies. The changes included decreased plant height, leaf area and specific leaf area, accompanied by an increased leaf thickness. Both resource-conservative strategies (measured by community-level plant traits) and functional diversity promoted EMF, while shifts in plant resource use strategies buffered against aridity-induced declines in grassland EMF. These results reveal a coordinated shift in plant functional traits towards resource-conservative strategies under drought, enhancing drought resistance and maintaining multiple ecosystem functions.

干旱正在影响草地植物群落和生态系统多功能性（EMF），但干旱如何改变植物群落以及这种变化如何影响EMF仍不确定。为了填补这一空白，我们研究了中国北方草原生态系统中沿自然干旱梯度的植物群落、土壤性质和EMF。随着干旱加剧，植物物种丰富度、多种生态系统功能（如土壤养分有效性、地上和地下生物量）和总体EMF下降（P < 0.05），而群落水平的植物性状表现出明显的资源保守策略倾向。这些变化包括株高、叶面积和比叶面积的下降，以及叶厚的增加。资源保守策略（以群落水平植物性状衡量）和功能多样性都促进了EMF，而植物资源利用策略的变化缓冲了干旱导致的草地EMF下降。这些结果揭示了干旱条件下植物功能性状向资源保守策略的协调转变，增强了抗旱性并维持了多种生态系统功能。

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引用次数: 0

Periphyton pigment shifts in lakes with varying water colour: a possible monitoring method for freshwater Browning 水色变化的湖泊中浮游植物色素的变化：一种可能监测淡水褐变的方法

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114621

Salla Rajala, Jukka Horppila, Leena Nurminen, Satu Estlander

Despite several negative effects of browning, there are no sufficient bioindicators to monitor it. In this study, the effects of water quality on the photosynthetic pigment content of periphyton grown on artificial substrata in different depths were examined. The study was conducted in June–July 2024 in southern Finland. The accrual of periphyton fresh mass was on average 50 μg cm². The chlorophyll a:b ratio (Chl a:b) of periphyton decreased with increasing water colour at 80 cm incubation depth. The ratio of Chl a to carotenoids (Chl a:Car) increased with increasing water colour at 20 cm incubation depth. No effect of total phosphorus or water Chl a concentration on the periphyton pigment content was observed. The results suggest that Chl a:b and Chl a:Car of periphyton are potential new indicators of browning in lakes due to their specific response to browning.

尽管褐变有一些负面影响，但没有足够的生物指标来监测它。本文研究了不同深度人工基质上生长的周围植物光合色素含量对水质的影响。这项研究于2024年6月至7月在芬兰南部进行。周围植物鲜质量的累积平均为50 μg cm2。在80 cm孵育深度时，随水色的增加，周围植物叶绿素a:b比（Chl a:b）降低。在20 cm孵育深度时，Chl a与类胡萝卜素的比值（Chl a:Car）随水色的增加而增加。总磷和水Chl a浓度对周围植物色素含量无影响。结果表明，水体外周植物Chl a:b和Chl a:Car对褐变具有特异性反应，可作为湖泊褐变的新指标。

引用次数: 0

How to estimate overall population trends when sites show varying population counts over time? 当站点显示随时间变化的人口数量时，如何估计总体人口趋势？

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114588

Saskia Schirmer , Marcus Fritze , Alexander Scheuerlein

Population trends can be used to assess the conservation status of a species. Current methods used for estimating population trends have drawbacks when it comes to estimating a robust supra-regional trend from available population monitoring data. Because most monitoring data are collected from many subpopulations rather than a single homogeneous population, the population-level data can be highly heterogeneous with respect to the dynamics of each subpopulation over time. Thus, a supra-regional population trend should represent the common trend across all subpopulations like a global smoother in a hierarchical generalized additive model (HGAM) does. We show and compare how commonly used population trend regression models and HGAMs perform when applied to (i) simulated data consisting of subpopulations with homogeneous versus heterogeneous population dynamics and (ii) real-world data of the Greater mouse-eared bat Myotis myotis monitored in hibernacula throughout Germany over a 34-year period. The true population trend is significantly overestimated in models that ignore subpopulation structure and the inflated overdispersion inherent in monitoring data.

种群趋势可以用来评估一个物种的保护状况。目前用于估计人口趋势的方法在根据现有人口监测数据估计稳健的超区域趋势时存在缺陷。由于大多数监测数据是从许多亚种群中收集的，而不是从单个同质种群中收集的，因此就每个亚种群随时间的动态而言，种群水平的数据可能是高度异质的。因此，一个超区域的种群趋势应该代表所有子种群的共同趋势，就像一个层次广义加性模型（HGAM）中的全局平滑一样。我们展示并比较了常用的种群趋势回归模型和HGAMs在应用于(i)由同质与异质种群动态亚种群组成的模拟数据和（ii）在整个德国冬眠区监测的大鼠耳蝠Myotis Myotis的真实数据时的表现。在忽略亚种群结构和监测数据固有的过度分散的模型中，真实的种群趋势被显著高估。

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引用次数: 0

Balancing economic development and forest ecosystem services: Multi-scale spatial land use optimization modeling for Guiyang, China 经济发展与森林生态系统服务的平衡：贵阳市多尺度空间土地利用优化模型

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114616

Ren-Jie Cao , Yu-Jie Hu , Bao-Jun Tang

Abstract

The imbalance of land use and the degradation of ecosystem services have become key issues constraining the region's sustainable development. Existing studies still lack forest ecosystem service valuation and spatial allocation optimization. Therefore, this study develops a multi-scale optimization framework by integrating the NSGA-II and SLSQP algorithms with the PLUS model employed for land use planning. Taking Guiyang City as an example, it also constructs four scenarios, namely, inertial development (ID), economic development priority (EDP), Ecological Protection Priority (EPP), and ecological-economic balance Development (EEB). In all, this study proposes an optimization strategy for land use in Guiyang City. It is found that the optimal allocation of forest coverage (66.3%) and the proportion of arable land (25.1%) under the EEB scenario creates a spatial pattern of “centralized construction in the south, eco-agriculture in the center, and eco-conservation in the north.” The analysis shows that GDP and population density are the main driving forces for expanding construction land. Sensitivity analysis identifies forest coverage rate and population carrying capacity as the most critical regulatory parameters (RSI = 1.49 and 0.91, respectively). This study reveals the optimal spatial pattern of regional land use and the underlying driving mechanism. This is achieved by constructing a multi-scale coupling framework that integrates “total optimization” with “spatial allocation.” The framework offers a novel methodology for synergizing economic development and forest ecosystem services.

摘要土地利用失衡和生态系统服务功能退化已成为制约区域可持续发展的关键问题。现有研究还缺乏森林生态系统服务价值评价和空间配置优化。因此，本研究将NSGA-II和SLSQP算法与土地利用规划的PLUS模型相结合，构建了一个多尺度优化框架。以贵阳市为例，构建了惯性发展（ID）、经济发展优先（EDP）、生态保护优先（EPP）和生态经济平衡发展（EEB）四种情景。综上所述，本研究提出了贵阳市土地利用优化策略。研究发现，在EEB情景下，森林覆盖率（66.3%）和耕地比例（25.1%）的优化配置形成了“南部集中建设，中心生态农业，北部生态保护”的空间格局。分析表明，GDP和人口密度是扩大建设用地的主要驱动力。敏感性分析表明，森林覆盖率和人口承载力是最关键的调控参数（RSI分别为1.49和0.91）。研究揭示了区域土地利用最优空间格局及其驱动机制。这是通过构建“总量优化”与“空间配置”相结合的多尺度耦合框架来实现的。该框架为协同经济发展和森林生态系统服务提供了一种新的方法。

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引用次数: 0

Assessment of water ecological health in the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route main canal based on P-IBI 基于P-IBI的南水北调中线干渠水生态健康评价

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114601

J. Ma , P. Xu , A.J. Zhang , Y.Y. Liu , R. Yang , X.L. Zhou , Q.F. Zhang , Y. Peng , J.C. Li , Y.M. Su

The South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project is one of the largest inter-basin water diversion projects in the world. Since its operation, the water ecological system in the main canal of the middle route has been undergoing establishment and evolution, underscoring the urgent need for a robust scientific ecosystem assessment framework to evaluate its current characteristics. This study, based on the Phytoplankton Index of Biological Integrity (P-IBI), on the basis of interannual comparison, utilized data from the autumn low-flow period of 2018 to select five diagnostic indicators: the number of phytoplankton species, cyanobacteria density, total phytoplankton density, dominance of the top three dominant species, and density of water quality indicator species. A tailored water ecological health assessment system for the main canal of the middle route was constructed, with core P-IBI indicators for the 2024 low-flow period chosen to validate the system's rationality and to reveal interannual dynamics in water ecological conditions. Results indicate that when the low-flow period is used as the evaluation hydrological period, the proportion of interannual ecological health increased by 34 % from 2018 to 2024, demonstrating that the project maintains a relatively healthy ecological state overall, the corresponding P-IBI shows a decreasing trend along the canal. Against the backdrop of interannual water quality improvement, the algal community maintained high species richness even at low densities. This study confirms that P-IBI-based assessment of phytoplankton integrity can accurately reflect the health status of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and provides methodological support for ecological health assessments of artificial water diversion projects.

南水北调中线工程是世界上最大的跨流域调水工程之一。中线干渠自运行以来，水生态系统一直处于建立和演化的过程中，迫切需要一个健全、科学的生态系统评价框架来评价其现状特征。本研究以浮游植物生物完整性指数（Phytoplankton Index of Biological Integrity, P-IBI）为基础，在年际对比的基础上，利用2018年秋季枯水期数据，选取浮游植物种类数、蓝藻密度、浮游植物总密度、前3优势种优势度、水质指标种密度5个诊断指标。构建了中线干渠水生态健康评价体系，选取2024年低流量期的核心P-IBI指标，验证体系的合理性，揭示水生态状况的年际动态。结果表明：以低流量期作为评价水文期时，2018 - 2024年，三峡库区年际生态健康比例增加了34%，表明三峡库区总体上保持了较为健康的生态状态，相应的P-IBI沿运河呈下降趋势；在年际水质改善的背景下，低密度下藻类群落仍保持较高的物种丰富度。本研究证实了基于p - ibi的南水北调中线浮游植物完整性评价能准确反映南水北调中线生态健康状况，为人工引水工程生态健康评价提供了方法支持。

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引用次数: 0

A novel wetland ecological quality index (WEQI) for rapid assessment of permafrost-dominated wetlands in Northeast China from 2001 to 2020 2001 - 2020年东北地区冻土区湿地生态质量快速评价的WEQI

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114591

Jiao Wang , Miao Li , Dianfan Guo , Zunyi Xie , Zhiqiang Yin , Shuying Zang

Wetlands in the permafrost regions of Northeast China, critical ecosystems maintained by a strong permafrost-wetland coupling, face significant threats from climate warming and anthropogenic pressures. However, conventional ecological assessment methods often overlook the unique influence of permafrost as a habitat factor and lack the capability for rapid, continuous monitoring over large areas. To address this limitation, this study developed the Wetland Ecological Quality Index (WEQI), a novel framework for assessing the spatiotemporal dynamics of wetland ecological quality from 2001 to 2020. The WEQI is constructed by integrating multiple variables: four remote sensing-derived indicators, namely wetness (MNDWI), vegetation abundance (FVC), and soil moisture (Tasseled Cap Transformation), combined with topographical data (DEM). We employed the Geodetector model to identify the primary drivers of these changes across different permafrost zones. Our results indicate that wetland patches, while remaining somewhat connected, were developing more complex and irregular shapes, the overall ecological quality paradoxically showed a slight improvement over the past two decades. This trend was corroborated by assessments using the InVEST model. Driving factor analysis indicates that in different permafrost regions, the combined influence of ground temperature and other factors is more pronounced. The proposed WEQI provides an effective tool for the dynamic assessment and monitoring of wetland ecosystems in high-latitude cold regions. It offers a scientific basis and new insights for the sustainable management, conservation, and restoration of these vulnerable ecosystems.

东北多年冻土区湿地是由冻土区-湿地耦合维持的关键生态系统，面临着气候变暖和人为压力的重大威胁。然而，传统的生态评价方法往往忽视了多年冻土作为生境因子的独特影响，缺乏大面积快速、连续监测的能力。为了解决这一问题，本研究开发了湿地生态质量指数（WEQI），这是一个评估2001 - 2020年湿地生态质量时空动态的新框架。WEQI是由四个遥感衍生指标（即湿度（MNDWI）、植被丰度（FVC）和土壤湿度（Tasseled Cap Transformation））结合地形数据（DEM）综合构建而成的。我们使用Geodetector模型来确定不同永久冻土带这些变化的主要驱动因素。研究结果表明，近20年来，湿地斑块虽保持一定的联系，但其形态却呈现出更加复杂和不规则的趋势，整体生态质量却略有改善。使用InVEST模型的评估证实了这一趋势。驱动因子分析表明，在不同的多年冻土区，地温和其他因素的联合影响更为显著。WEQI为高纬度寒区湿地生态系统的动态评价和监测提供了有效的工具。为这些脆弱生态系统的可持续管理、保护和恢复提供了科学依据和新的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Unveiling kazakhstan's ecosystem service puzzle: Spatiotemporal shifts and drivers of supply and demand through multi-model integration and machine learning methods 揭示哈萨克斯坦的生态系统服务难题：通过多模型集成和机器学习方法的时空变化和供需驱动因素

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114569

Adila Akbar , Alim Samat , Jilili Abuduwaili , Lunche Wang , Peijun Du , Dana Shokparova , Galymzhan Saparov , Sanim Bissenbayeva

Kazakhstan, a key arid and semi-arid region in Central Asia, faces growing mismatches between ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand under complex ecological and socio-economic pressures. This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), and food production (FP) from 1995 to 2022 using InVEST and Google Earth Engine(GEE), and identifies dominant drivers of the ecosystem service supply–demand ratio (ESDR) through Random Forest(RF) and SHAP analysis. Normalized Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) reveal thresholds and nonlinear responses of these drivers, while Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) captures their spatial heterogeneity. Key findings include:(1)Temporal changes: WY fluctuated over 25 %, CS declined by 18.6 %, and FP increased by 42.3 % over the study period.(2)Spatial patterns: WY was concentrated in eastern and northern regions, CS in central and southern regions, and FP in northern and western regions, with natural barriers limiting ES supply in the south and east.(3)ESDR dynamics: WY surplus or balanced areas reached 64.8 %, with severe deficits decreasing from 20.7 % to 16.5 %. CS high-capacity areas declined from 19.3 % to 14.2 %, while low-capacity areas rose from 44.7 % to 51.1 %, indicating reduced carbon sequestration. FP high-capacity areas grew from 13.3 % to 20.8 %, but deficit areas also increased from 17.3 % to 21.7 %, highlighting emerging food security risks. (4) Mechanistic drivers: Population growth, climate variability, and energy consumption collectively explain over 60 % of ESDR variance, illustrating how demographic and anthropogenic pressures drive ES mismatches. These findings provide actionable, quantitative guidance for region-specific resource management and sustainable development in arid Central Asia.

哈萨克斯坦是中亚重要的干旱和半干旱地区，在复杂的生态和社会经济压力下，生态系统服务（ES）供需之间的不匹配日益严重。利用InVEST和谷歌Earth Engine（GEE）量化了1995 - 2022年中国生态系统产水量（WY）、碳储量（CS）和粮食产量（FP）的时空动态，并通过随机森林（RF）和SHAP分析确定了生态系统服务供需比（ESDR）的主导驱动因素。归一化偏相关图（pdp）揭示了这些驱动因素的阈值和非线性响应，而地理和时间加权回归（GTWR）则捕捉了它们的空间异质性。主要发现包括：(1)时间变化：在研究期间，WY波动超过25%，CS下降18.6%，FP增加42.3%。②空间格局：WY集中在东部和北部，CS集中在中部和南部，FP集中在北部和西部，南部和东部的自然屏障限制了ES的供应。(3)ESDR动态：国内生产总值顺差和平衡占比达到64.8%，严重赤字占比从20.7%下降到16.5%。CS高容量区域从19.3%下降到14.2%，而低容量区域从44.7%上升到51.1%，表明碳固存减少。计划生育高产地区从13.3%增长到20.8%，但缺产地区也从17.3%增长到21.7%，凸显出正在出现的粮食安全风险。(4)机制驱动因素：人口增长、气候变率和能源消耗共同解释了超过60%的ESDR差异，说明了人口和人为压力如何驱动ES错配。这些研究结果为中亚干旱地区特定区域的资源管理和可持续发展提供了可操作的定量指导。

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