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PENERAPAN METODE BAYES DALAM MENGESTIMASI PREMI KREDIBILITAS PADA ASURANSI UMUM 贝斯方法将可信度保险费应用于公共保险
Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2021.v10.i04.p349
Rain Fernando Bangun, I. N. Widana, Desak Putu Eka Nilakusmawati
Determination of insurance premiums is very important the calculation must be done carefully so that there is experience losses. The purpose of this research is to find out the application of empirical Bayes credibility theory Model 1 and estimate of the credibility premium on general insurance. A method that can help in overcoming these problems, that is empirical Bayes credibility theory Model 1, results of the estimated credibility premium credibility (in Euros) for insurance companies Alianz, Csob, Generali, Koop, Unisqa, and Wusten respectively as follows: 46.774811, 7.801307, 10.368991, 58.812250, 6.703035, and 5.091605.  These results, the average claim is greater than the credibility premium, so that insurance companies can reserve premiums for the future.
保险费的确定是非常重要的,必须仔细计算,以便有经验的损失。本研究的目的是找出实证贝叶斯可信度理论模型1的应用,并估计一般保险的可信度保费。一种有助于克服这些问题的方法,即经验贝叶斯可信度理论模型1,对保险公司allianz、Csob、Generali、Koop、Unisqa和Wusten的可信度保费可信度(欧元)的估计结果分别为:46.774811、7.801307、10.368991、58.812250、6.703035和5.091605。这些结果表明,平均理赔额大于信用保费,从而使保险公司可以为未来预留保费。
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引用次数: 0
ANALISIS RISIKO PORTOFOLIO MENGGUNAKAN METODE SIMULASI MONTE CARLO CONTROL VARIATES 风险分析方法模拟方法卡洛控制变量
Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2021.v10.i04.p342
Irene Maylinda Pangaribuan, K. Dharmawan, I. W. Sumarjaya
Value at Risk (VaR) is a method to measure the maximum loss with a certain level of confidence in a certain period. Monte Carlo simulation is the most popular method of calculating VaR. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate control variates method as a variance reduction method that can be applied to estimate VaR. Moreover, it is to compare the results with the normal VaR method or analytical VaR calculation. Control variates method was used to find new returns from all stocks which are used as estimators of the control variates. The new returns were then used to define parameters needed to generate N random numbers. Furthermore, the generated numbers were used to find the VaR value. The method was then applied to estimate a portfolio of the game and esports company stocks that are EA, TTWO, AESE, TCEHY, and ATVI . The results show Monte Carlo simulation gives VaR of US$41.6428 within 1000 simulation, while the analytical VaR calculation  or  normal VaR method gives US$30.0949.
风险价值(VaR)是一种在一定时期内以一定置信水平衡量最大损失的方法。蒙特卡罗模拟是最流行的计算VaR的方法。本研究的目的是证明控制变量法是一种可用于估计VaR的方差减少方法。此外,它还将结果与正常VaR方法或分析VaR计算进行比较。控制变量法用于从所有股票中寻找新的收益,这些股票被用作控制变量的估计量。然后使用新的返回值来定义生成N个随机数所需的参数。此外,生成的数字被用来寻找VaR值。然后,该方法被应用于估计游戏和电子竞技公司股票的投资组合,这些股票是EA、TTWO、AESE、TCEHY和ATVI。结果表明,蒙特卡罗模拟在1000模拟范围内给出了41.6428美元的VaR,而分析VaR计算或正常VaR方法给出了30.0949美元。
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引用次数: 1
PENENTUAN PREMI DAN CADANGAN PADA ASURANSI PENDIDIKAN DENGAN MEMERHATIKAN PELUANG HIDUP ANAK 指示性保证涉及其他产品时的前提规划和要求
Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2021.v10.i04.p350
Ni Luh Diah Ayu Sita Dewi, I. N. Widana, Ketut Jayanegara
Education insurance provides services in the field of education. In education insurance, the insured not only gets protection benefits but also education funds. These benefits will be received if they have paid premiums. Insurance companies also need to set the exact amount of policy value. The purpose of this study is to determine the premium and policy value of education insurance by taking into account the child's life chances. In this study, used secondary data from the 2011 Indonesian Mortality Table and illustrated data in the form of education fund data. Premium is obtained using the equivalence principle and policy value is obtained using the prospective method. In the calculation of premiums and policy values for education insurance premiums by taking into account the child's life chances, modifications are made, the amount of education funds multiplied by the child's life chances. The results given in this study are the amount of education insurance premium by taking into account the child's life chances is Rp 6.946.456,00. Policy value increases during the disbursement of education funds and decreases at the end of coverage.
教育保险提供教育领域的服务。在教育保险中,被保险人不仅获得保障利益,而且获得教育资金。如果他们缴纳了保险费,就可以获得这些福利。保险公司还需要设定保单价值的确切金额。本研究的目的是通过考虑孩子的生活机会来确定教育保险的保费和政策价值。在本研究中,使用了2011年印度尼西亚死亡率表中的二手数据,并以教育基金数据的形式说明了数据。保险金采用等效原理计算,保单价值采用前瞻性方法计算。在计算保费和政策价值时,考虑到孩子的生活机会,对教育基金数额乘以孩子的生活机会进行修改。在本研究中给出的结果是,考虑到孩子的生活机会,教育保险费的金额为6,946.45.6万卢比。政策价值在教育资金支付期间增加,在覆盖结束时减少。
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引用次数: 0
PENENTUAN CADANGAN PREMI ASURANSI DWIGUNA MENGGUNAKAN METODE ILLINOIS BERDASARKAN HUKUM MORTALITAS WEIBULL 根据WEIBULL死亡率法,确定将采用伊利诺斯州的方法的二维保险费储备
Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2021.v10.i04.p347
Ayu Eka Fanny Devi, I. N. Widana, Ketut Jayanegara
Endowment insurance provides protection benefit and saving benefits. In the endowment insurance the insured party (insurance participant) must be paid the premiums. In addition to premiums, there is also policy value, which is sum of money that must be collected by the company in preparation for claim payment. The purpose of this study was to determine calculation of policy value in endowment insurance using Illinois method based on Weibull Mortality Law. In this study used secondary data from United States Life Table in the form of mortality probability data. Calculation value using Weibull mortality law, then the policy value calculated by Illinois method. The result of this study is policy value using Illinois Method based on Weibull Mortality Law is bigger than policy value using Illinois method without Weibull mortality law in the first year until year 20th. After year 20th, the policy value using Illinois method based on Weibull mortality law is smaller than policy value using Illinois method without Weibull mortality law, while at the end of the insurance year which is year 30th, the policy value with or without Weibull mortality law generates the same value.
养老保险提供保障利益和储蓄利益。参加养老保险,必须由被保险人(参保人)缴纳保险费。除了保费之外,还有保单价值,这是公司为准备索赔支付而必须收取的一笔钱。本研究的目的是在Weibull死亡率定律的基础上,利用Illinois方法确定养老保险保单价值的计算。本研究采用美国生命表的二次数据,以死亡率概率数据的形式进行。采用威布尔死亡率法计算保单价值,然后采用伊利诺伊法计算保单价值。研究结果表明,第一年至第20年,采用基于Weibull死亡率法的伊利诺伊法的政策价值大于不采用Weibull死亡率法的伊利诺伊法的政策价值。在第20年后,基于威布尔死亡率定律的伊利诺伊法的保单价值小于不考虑威布尔死亡率定律的伊利诺伊法的保单价值,而在保险年度结束时,即第30年,无论是否考虑威布尔死亡率定律,保单价值都产生相同的价值。
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引用次数: 0
PENENTUAN KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI SAHAM MENGGUNAKAN CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (CAPM) DENGAN PENAKSIR PARAMETER STOKASTIK 资本资产定价模型的投资决策
Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2021.v10.i04.p351
Icha Winda Dian Safira, K. Dharmawan, Desak Putu Eka Nilakusmawati
CAPM is a method of determining efficient or inefficient stocks based on the differences between individual returns and expected returns based on the CAPM’s positive value for efficient and negative value for inefficient stocks. The move to share prices in the process can influence investors's decisions in investing funds, so that it can be formulated in stochastic differential equations that form the Geometric Brownian Motion model (GBM). The purpose of the study is to determine return value using the CAPM based on share estimates and historical stock prices. The study uses secondary data that data a monthly closing of stock prices from December 2017 to December 2020. The GBG model's estimated stock price is used to determine the expected value return using the CAPM. In this case, it is called CAPM-Stochastic. Then the results of the CAPM-Stochastic was compared to the results of the CAPM-Historical to define efficient stocks and inefficient stocks. The results of research using CAPM-Stochastic obtained that HMSP, ICBP, KLBF, and WOOD shares are efficient stock while UNVR shares are inefficient. The results of CAPM-Historical obtained that HMSP, ICBP, KLBF, and UNVR shares are inefficient stocks and WOOD is an efficient stocks.
CAPM是一种根据个人回报与预期回报之间的差异来确定有效或低效股票的方法,预期回报基于CAPM对有效股票的正值和对低效股票的负值。在此过程中股价的波动会影响投资者在投资基金时的决策,因此可以用随机微分方程来表示,从而形成几何布朗运动模型(GBM)。本研究的目的是根据股票估值和历史股价,使用CAPM确定回报价值。该研究使用了二级数据,这些数据是2017年12月至2020年12月股票价格的月度收盘数据。GBG模型的估计股价用于使用CAPM确定预期价值回报。在这种情况下,它被称为CAPM随机。然后将CAPM随机性的结果与CAPM历史性的结果进行比较,以定义有效库存和低效库存。CAPM随机研究结果表明,HMSP、ICBP、KLBF和WOOD股票是有效股票,而UNVR股票是无效股票。CAPM Historical的结果表明,HMSP、ICBP、KLBF和UNVR股票是低效股票,WOOD是高效股票。
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引用次数: 1
PERAMALAN VOLATILITAS DAN ESTIMASI VALUE AT RISK (VaR) SAHAM BLUE CHIP PADA SEKTOR PERBANKAN 波动性与价值和风险的估计
Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2021.v10.i04.p343
NI Kadek Juliarini, I. W. Sumarjaya, Kartika Sari
Investment is an activity to invest an asset to obtain a greater profit. The investment there's in great demand by investors are stock investments. Based on market capitalization, stocks are classified into first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier stocks. Stocks that have the highest market capitalization are first-tier or blue-chip stocks. Blue-chip stocks are stocks that are classified as main shares on the listing board on the IDX. Before investing, it's important to know the level of investment risk in order to make the right investment decisions. The purpose of this study is to determine the risk of investing in blue-chip stocks namely BRI, BCA, and Bank Mandiri through volatility forecasting using the GARCH, EGARCH, or TGARCH models. The data used is the daily closing price of shares for the period of 25 May 2005 to 21 May 2021 which was obtained through the Yahoo Finance website. Based on the research results, it's known that Bank Mandiri has the highest investment risk and BCA has the lowest investment risk. Based on these results, it can be suggested that investors who like risk can choose to invest in Bank Mandiri shares, and those who don't like risk can invest in BCA shares.
投资是一种对资产进行投资以获得更大利润的活动。投资者需求量很大的投资是股票投资。根据市值,股票分为一级、二级和三级股票。市值最高的股票是一线股或蓝筹股。蓝筹股是指在IDX上市板上被归类为主要股票的股票。在投资之前,了解投资风险水平以做出正确的投资决策是很重要的。本研究的目的是通过使用GARCH、EGARCH或TGARCH模型进行波动性预测,确定投资蓝筹股(即BRI、BCA和Bank Mandiri)的风险。所使用的数据是通过雅虎财经网站获得的2005年5月25日至2021年5月21日期间的每日收盘价。根据研究结果可知,Mandiri银行的投资风险最高,BCA的投资风险最低。基于这些结果,可以建议喜欢风险的投资者可以选择投资Bank Mandiri的股票,不喜欢风险的可以投资BCA的股票。
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引用次数: 1
ANALISIS PENJADWALAN PRODUKSI MENGGUNAKAN METODE CAMPBELL DUDEK SMITH DAN DANNENBRING DALAM MEMINIMUMKAN TOTAL WAKTU PRODUKSI BERAS 使用坎贝尔·杜达克·史密斯(CAMPBELL DUDEK SMITH)和DANNENBRING方法进行的生产调度分析,将大米的生产时间降到最低
Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2021.v10.i04.p345
Ni Kadek Budi Antari, L. Harini, Ni Ketut Tari Tastrawati
The increasing needs for basic materials has resulted in an increased production process of basic materials in a company. CV. Puspa is a manufacturing company engaged in the production of rice, on the production process, CV. Puspa often has a buildup of work so that it requires an alternative production scheduling optimally. This research was conducted to minimize the total time of completion using the Campbell Dudek Smith and Dannenbring method in determining efficient production scheduling. Based on the scheduling sequence obtained, the calculation results of the total completion time using the Campbell Dudek Smith method are less than or equal to the results of calculation using the Dannenbring method. So the Campbell Dudek Smith method is more efficient than the Dannenbring method to be applied to CV. Puspa.
对基本材料的需求不断增加,导致公司的基本材料生产流程增加。CV。Puspa是一家从事大米生产的制造公司,在生产过程中,CV。Puspa经常有大量的工作,因此需要最佳的替代生产计划。本研究采用Campbell-Dudek-Smith和Dannenbring方法来确定有效的生产调度,以最大限度地缩短总完工时间。基于所获得的调度序列,使用Campbell-Dudek-Smith方法的总完成时间的计算结果小于或等于使用Dannenbring方法的计算结果。因此,Campbell-Dudek-Smith方法比Dannenbring方法更有效地应用于CV Puspa。
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引用次数: 2
PENGGUNAAN METODE PROJECTED UNIT CREDIT DAN AGGREGATE COST PADA ASURANSI PENSIUN NORMAL 用正常养老保险控制项目法单位信用和成本增长
Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2021.v10.i04.p344
Sarah Veronica Hutabalian, I. N. Widana, L. Harini
Employees can be referred to as company assets because they play an important role in the progress and decline of a company. So the company can protect the welfare of employees when their age can no longer be productive, one of which is to include employees in pension fund insurance. This study aims to calculate and compare the normal contributions that participants must pay using the methods Projected Unit Credit and Aggregate Cost. The calculation of normal contributions using the method Projected Unit Credit uses the present value of the pension benefits divided by the length of service. The Method Aggregate Cost uses the present value of the pension benefits minus the accumulated funds and divided by the term annuity. The result of this research is that the normal contribution amount using the method Projected Unit Credit is lower in the payments in the first years than using the method Aggregate Cost. The Method contribution Projected Unit Credit increases significantly as the length of service period and the method Aggregate Cost increases slowly but increases sharply as the retirement age approaches.
员工可以被称为公司资产,因为他们在公司的发展和衰落中发挥着重要作用。因此,当员工的年龄不再有生产力时,公司可以保护他们的福利,其中之一就是将员工纳入养老基金保险。本研究旨在计算和比较参与者必须使用预计单位信贷和总成本方法支付的正常缴款。使用“预计单位信贷”方法计算的正常缴款使用养老金福利的现值除以服务年限。方法总成本使用养老金福利的现值减去累计资金,再除以定期年金。这项研究的结果是,在第一年的付款中,使用“预计单位信贷”方法的正常供款金额低于使用“总成本”方法的供款金额。方法贡献预计单位信贷随着服务期的延长而显著增加,方法总成本缓慢增加,但随着退休年龄的临近而急剧增加。
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引用次数: 1
ANALISIS FAKTOR PERSEPSI AKADEMISI TERHADAP PENGGUNAAN BUSANA ADAT DI LINGKUNGAN SEKOLAH 个人因素分析商学院
Pub Date : 2021-09-17 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2021.v10.i03.p340
Luh Putu Ida Harini, Kartika Sari, M. Susilawati
Traditional Balinese clothing is a typical Balinese clothing that is characterized by Balinese customs used as a form of cultural protection that reflects the nature of politeness, shade, peace, and pride for the wearer. The Governor of Bali in the Regulation of the Governor of Bali Number 79 of 2018, concerning the Day for the Use of Balinese Traditional Clothing states that one of the objectives of using Balinese traditional clothing is to maintain and maintain the preservation of Balinese Traditional Clothing in order to strengthen identity, character and character, to recognize the values the aesthetic, ethical, moral, and spiritual values ??contained in Balinese culture and encourage increased use of local Balinese fashion products and industries. The purpose of this study was to determine the factors that influence academic perceptions of the use of traditional clothing in the school environment. This research was conducted in high schools in Denpasar, using the factor analysis method. The sample in this study were 181 respondents. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling. The results showed that the factors that influenced students' perceptions of the use of traditional clothing in the school environment were comfort in traditional clothing, knowledge of the rules of traditional dress, knowledge of traditional clothing, ethics of Balinese traditional dress and tourists and Balinese traditional clothing. These five factors can explain the diversity of students 'perceptions of 58.742 percent, with the dominant factor affecting students' perceptions of the use of traditional clothing in the school environment is comfort in traditional dress.
传统的巴厘岛服装是一种典型的巴厘岛服饰,其特点是巴厘岛习俗被用作一种文化保护形式,反映了穿着者的礼貌、阴影、和平和自豪的本质。巴厘岛总督在2018年第79号巴厘岛总督关于巴厘岛传统服饰使用日的条例中指出,使用巴厘岛传统服装的目标之一是维护和维护巴厘岛传统衣物的保存,以加强身份、性格和性格,认可审美价值观,伦理、道德和精神价值观??包含在巴厘岛文化中,并鼓励更多地使用当地巴厘岛时尚产品和产业。本研究的目的是确定影响学术界对学校环境中使用传统服装的看法的因素。本研究采用因子分析法在登巴萨的高中进行。本研究的样本为181名受访者。所使用的抽样技术是有目的的抽样。结果表明,影响学生在学校环境中使用传统服装的因素是对传统服装的舒适度、传统服装规则的知识、传统服装知识、巴厘岛传统服装和游客的伦理道德以及巴厘岛传统服饰。这五个因素可以解释58.742%的学生认知的多样性,其中影响学生在学校环境中使用传统服装认知的主要因素是穿着传统服装的舒适度。
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引用次数: 0
APLIKASI ALGORITMA DIJKSTRA UNTUK MENENTUKAN RUTE TERPENDEK DARI KAMPUS A KE B UIN RADEN FATAH DIJKSTRA算法应用程序,以确定从A校园到B的最短路线
Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2021.v10.i03.p339
Rendi Saputrama, Hartatiana Hartatiana
Finding the shortest direction is one of the options that have been considered while traveling. One of the problems that occur for lecturers, staff, and students of UIN Raden Fatah is determining the shortest direction from Campus A to B. The application of graph theory by using Dijkstra's Algorithm becomes a solution for this problem. This algorithm has the advantage to minimize the expense of the costs by finding the shortest route from starting point to the destination. This study is applied research. The study will discuss the determination of the origin and destination end-point, traverse route, the calculation of the weight distance, analyzes the Dijkstra's iteration to determine the shortest route, and conclusion. As the result, the land route becomes the shortest route option from UIN Raden Fatah Campus A to B. The directed graph of the route represents the location as point, the road as the side, and distance as weight. The result shows that the route distance is 6.94 km using Dijkstra's Algorithm.
寻找最短的方向是旅行时考虑的选项之一。UIN Raden Fatah的讲师、员工和学生面临的问题之一是确定从A校区到B校区的最短方向。使用Dijkstra算法应用图论就成为了这个问题的解决方案。该算法的优点是通过找到从起点到目的地的最短路线来最小化成本。本研究为应用研究。本研究将讨论起点和终点的确定、导线路线、权重距离的计算,分析Dijkstra迭代法确定最短路线,并得出结论。因此,陆路成为从UIN Raden Fatah校区A到B的最短路线选项。路线的有向图将位置表示为点,将道路表示为边,将距离表示为权重。结果表明,使用Dijkstra算法,路线距离为6.94km。
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引用次数: 0
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E-Jurnal Matematika
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