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ESTIMASI RISIKO PASAR DENGAN LVaR DAN EXPECTED SHORTFALL MENGGUNAKAN SIMULASI MONTE CARLO 预计短缺实现蒙特卡罗模拟
Pub Date : 2022-05-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i02.p365
I. Pratama, K. Dharmawan, Kartika Sari
Value at Risk (VaR) is a statistical technique used to manage and calculate the level of financial risk within a certain period of time and a certain level of confidence. VaR can be adjusted to liquidity risk which is called Liquidity adjusted Value at Risk (LVaR). Another alternative calculation is the Expected Shortfall (ES) which is a loss beyond the confidence limit that can occur due to liquidity. This study aims to estimate market risk with LVaR and ES on a stock portfolio incorporated in the LQ45 index using a Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, back-testing is carried out using the Kupiec test. The data used in this study are two stocks that are included in the LQ45 index which have the largest sales volume in a period of three years, namely ANTM and BBRI shares. As a result, it was found that the stock portfolio of ANTM and BBRI in the initial fund of Rp. 10,000,000.00 with a 95% confidence level, obtained ES of Rp.496.470,00 per day and an LVaR value of Rp 499.174,00 per day. The ES model obtained is less accurate while the LVaR model is accurate.
风险价值(VaR)是一种统计技术,用于管理和计算一定时期和一定置信度的财务风险水平。VaR可以根据流动性风险进行调整,称为流动性调整风险值(LVaR)。另一种可选的计算方法是预期亏损(ES),这是由于流动性而可能发生的超出置信范围的损失。本研究的目的是利用蒙特卡洛模拟,用LVaR和ES对纳入LQ45指数的股票投资组合进行市场风险估计。此外,利用Kupiec检验进行了回测。本研究使用的数据是LQ45指数中三年内销量最大的两只股票,即ANTM和bbi股票。结果发现,在初始基金Rp. 10,000,000.00中,ANTM和bbi的股票投资组合在95%置信水平下,获得ES为Rp.496.47万/天,LVaR值为Rp. 499.17.4万/天。得到的ES模型精度较低,而LVaR模型精度较高。
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引用次数: 1
APLIKASI ALGORITMA DECISION TREE C4.5 SEBAGAI MODEL PENDUKUNG KEPUTUSAN SELEKSI ANGGOTA RESIMEN MAHASISWA UNIVERSITAS UDAYANA 应用算法确定树C4.5作为支持乌达亚纳大学学生选择团成员决策的模型
Pub Date : 2022-05-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i02.p369
Alexander Hiro Wibisono, I. P. E. N. Kencana, I. W. Sumarjaya
The Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) of the 901st Mayurajana Battalion. The 2000 Agreement caused the ROTC to be excluded from the Indonesian Military command structure, causing the ROTC in each campus to have a diverse standard of members due to the recruitment process which are done by students. C4.5 algorithm from chefboost was used to find the accuracy as well as assist the construction of an ideal C4.5 algorithm. The result shows the C4.5 algorithm by chefboost to have a 79.16% accuracy with the tendency to underestimate the data. During the modeling of the algorithm it is discovered that the source of the algorithm’s tendency to underestimate the data appears to be affected by the recruits administration and medical history.
第901 Mayurajana营的后备军官训练团(ROTC)。2000年的协议导致ROTC被排除在印度尼西亚军事指挥结构之外,导致每个校园的ROTC成员的标准不同,因为招募过程是由学生完成的。利用chefboost中的C4.5算法寻找精度,并辅助构建理想的C4.5算法。结果表明,chefboost的C4.5算法具有低估数据的倾向,准确率为79.16%。在算法的建模过程中,发现算法倾向于低估数据的来源似乎受到新兵管理和病史的影响。
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引用次数: 0
PRODUK UNIT LINK UNTUK JOINT LIFE MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN STOKASTIK 用于活接头的单元连接产品
Pub Date : 2022-05-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i02.p368
NI Ketut Ayu Murniasih, I. N. Widana, Ketut Jayanegara
The insurance program has developed quite rapidly and the products that are displayed are only very attractive from protection products to protection and investment products known as unit link insurance. In general, unit-linked insurance products are offered with a death benefit for one person or single life. This study discusses unit link insurance with death benefits for two people or living together using profit testing calculations with a stochastic approach. This study aims to calculate the company's expectations of death benefits, profits and profits from unit link insurance for joint life using a stochastic approach. In this study, the ages of the participants of this unit link insurance are 35, 45, and 55. Premium payments of Rp4.200,000.00 are made annually for 5 years and are covered until the age of 75 years. In the research, it is expected that the profit and death benefit using the stochastic approach are as follows: if the insured ages are 35, 45, and 55 years old, the company experiences a profit of Rp9,445,498,66, Rp5,975,926.42, and Rp2, respectively. 197,106.56 and the expected death benefit value is Rp. 33,167.00, Rp. 99,007.00 and Rp. 328.005.00, respectively.
保险计划发展相当迅速,所展示的产品非常有吸引力,从保护产品到被称为单位链接保险的保护和投资产品。一般来说,与单位挂钩的保险产品为一人或一人提供死亡保险。本研究采用随机方法进行利润测试计算,讨论了两人或共同生活的单位联系保险与死亡保险。本研究旨在使用随机方法计算公司对共同人寿的死亡保险金、利润和单位链接保险利润的预期。在这项研究中,该单位链接保险的参与者年龄分别为35岁、45岁和55岁。每年支付4.200000.00卢比的保费,为期5年,有效期至75岁。在研究中,预计使用随机方法的利润和死亡保险金如下:如果被保险人年龄为35岁、45岁和55岁,公司的利润分别为9445498,66卢比、5975926.42卢比和2卢比。197106.56,预期死亡抚恤金价值分别为33167.00卢比、99007.00卢比和328.005.00卢比。
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引用次数: 0
FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MELATARBELAKANGI KEPUTUSAN KONSUMEN MENGGUNAKAN JASA LAYANAN GRABFOOD PADA APLIKASI GRAB DI KOTA DENPASAR 消费者决策背后的因素是登巴萨市GRAB app上的免费食品服务
Pub Date : 2022-05-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i02.p364
N. Setiawati, I. K. G. Sukarsa, G. Gandhiadi, I. P. E. N. Kencana
Grabfood is one type of online food delivery services. This services can be an alternative when people want to buy foods or drinks but cannot leave their activities. Knowing the consumer’s decision to use Grabfood is important because it such one of effort to improve the quality of this services. This research is aimed to determine factors behind consumer’s decision for using Grabfood services on the Grab application in Denpasar City. The method used in this research is factor analysis by analyzing the assessment of 120 respondents whom domiciled in Denpasar City and have used Grabfood services at least three times a month. Based on the results, there were five factors behind consumer’s decision for using Grabfood services in Denpasar City. Those factors are reliability factor of drivers, the ease of obtaining orders, informative and responsive factors for consumers, order assurance factors, and consumer care and understanding factors. Those five factors were able to explain the factors behind consumer’s decision for using Grabfood service on the Grab application in Denpasar City by 63.99%.
Grabfood是一种在线外卖服务。当人们想买食物或饮料但又不能离开他们的活动时,这种服务可以成为一种选择。了解消费者使用Grabfood的决定很重要,因为这是提高服务质量的努力之一。本研究旨在确定消费者在登巴萨市的Grab应用程序上使用Grabfood服务的决定背后的因素。本研究使用的方法是因子分析法,通过分析120名居住在登巴萨市,每月至少使用三次Grabfood服务的受访者的评估。根据研究结果,登巴萨市消费者决定使用Grabfood服务背后有五个因素。这些因素是驱动因素的可靠性因素、获得订单的容易程度因素、消费者的信息和响应因素、订单保证因素和消费者的关心和理解因素。这五个因素能够解释63.99%的消费者在登巴萨市的Grab应用程序上使用Grabfood服务的决定背后的因素。
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引用次数: 0
ESTIMASI VALUE AT RISK PORTOFOLIO MENGGUNAKAN METODE QUASI MONTE CARLO DENGAN PEMBANGKIT BILANGAN ACAK HALTON 风险投资组合估计价值使用蒙特卡洛速记法与霍尔顿随机数字发生器
Pub Date : 2022-05-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i02.p371
Putu Savitri Devi, K. Dharmawan, L. Harini
Estimating the value at risk (VaR) is an important aspect of investment. VaR is a standard method of measuring risk defined as the maximum loss over a certain period of time at a certain level of confidence. The purpose of this study is to estimate the risk of a portfolio represented as a VaR where the volatilities were simulated by th the Monte Carlo and Quasi Monte Carlo methods. The Monte Carlo method involves generating random numbers and the Quasi Monte Carlo method uses Halton's quasi-random sequences. This study uses secondary data, namely daily stock price closing data. Based on the calculation, the VaR of the Quasi Monte Carlo Portfolio produces a maximum loss greater than that of the Monte Carlo Portfolio. This is due to randomization performed with different random number generators for each method and the number of simulations performed. It can be concluded that the Quasi Monte Carlo method is a better method than the Monte Carlo method in estimating the risk of portfolio losses in stocks in the telecommunications sector.
评估风险价值(VaR)是投资的一个重要方面。VaR是衡量风险的标准方法,定义为一定时期内在一定置信度下的最大损失。本研究的目的是估计一个投资组合的风险表示为VaR,其中波动性是由蒙特卡洛和拟蒙特卡洛方法模拟。蒙特卡罗方法涉及生成随机数,而拟蒙特卡罗方法使用哈尔顿的拟随机序列。本研究采用二级数据,即每日股价收盘数据。根据计算,拟蒙特卡罗投资组合的VaR产生的最大损失大于蒙特卡罗投资组合。这是由于每种方法使用不同的随机数生成器执行的随机化以及执行的模拟次数。结果表明,拟蒙特卡罗方法比蒙特卡罗方法更适合于电信行业股票投资组合损失风险的估计。
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引用次数: 0
PENERAPAN FUZZY MULTIPLE ATTRIBUTE DECISION MAKING DALAM PEMILIHAN TEMPAT INDEKOS
Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i01.p357
I. Wijaya, G. Gandhiadi, L. Harini
Boarding house is an alternative choice for students to fulfill their need for a place to live. The variety of boarding houses, along with their respective advantages and disadvantages, becomes a challenge for students in determining the boarding house that suits their desires and needs. An in-depth evaluation is needed by comparing boarding houses based on certain criteria. In this study will be known the best boarding house based on four assessment criteria, price, facility, location, and room area. This research was conducted in Mathematics Department, Udayana University, using the combination of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) method. Sample in this study amounted to 118 respondents, with purposive sampling was the sampling technique. FAHP method is used to obtain the weight of each criterion, with the use of triangular fuzzy numbers for pairwise comparison scale of FAHP, and the use of the extent analysis method for the synthetic extent value  of the pairwise comparison. SAW method is used for the ranking process of 75 boarding houses alternative. The result showed that the weight of each criterion being 32% (price), 23% (facility), 40% (location), and 5% (room area), obtained A46 as the best boarding houses with a percentage gain value of 71%.
寄宿公寓是学生满足居住需求的另一种选择。各种各样的寄宿公寓,以及它们各自的优点和缺点,对学生来说,决定适合他们的愿望和需求的寄宿公寓是一个挑战。需要根据一定的标准对寄宿公寓进行比较,进行深入的评估。在这项研究中,将根据四个评估标准,价格,设施,位置和房间面积来了解最好的寄宿公寓。本研究在乌达亚那大学数学系进行,采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)和简单加性加权法(SAW)相结合的方法。本研究共抽样118人,采用有目的抽样的抽样方法。采用FAHP法确定各指标的权重,采用三角模糊数确定FAHP的两两比较尺度,采用程度分析法确定两两比较的综合程度值。采用SAW法对75个寄宿公寓备选方案进行排序。结果表明,各指标权重分别为32%(价格)、23%(设施)、40%(位置)、5%(房间面积),A46为最佳寄宿公寓,百分比增益值为71%。
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引用次数: 1
TEOREMA RESIDU DAN APLIKASINYA DALAM INTEGRAL TAK WAJAR 积分水中的驻留定理及其应用
Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i01.p352
MOH. Atkurrahman, Muniar Zulfitni, Diyah Ayu Rizki Pradita
In this study discusses about the solve of improper integral  uses ordinary step and the solve uses residu theorem. For the ordinary step is used the concept of integral and substitution integral, and the for the residu theorem is used the concept of a series from complex functions in complex areas. this study purpose for apply the residue theorem to improper integral of the real function. And know the proportion to calculate the integral value using the residue theorem and the ordinary steps, and applying the residu theorem in calculating improper integral of the real function that can't be done using the ordinary steps. Using concepts or approaches of complex function series thus produced the formula to calculate the improper integral of the real function. And the result of this study is that calculating unnatural integrals is easier and faster using the residue theorem than using the ordinary step. Not all the integral to the real function can be calculated using the ordinary steps therefore it can be used the residu theorem formula as an alternative.
本文讨论了用普通步进法求解反常积分和用剩余定理求解反常积分。对于普通步骤使用了积分和代换积分的概念,对于残馀定理使用了复区域中复函数的级数的概念。本研究的目的是将残数定理应用于实函数的反常积分。并且知道了用残数定理和普通步骤计算积分值的比例,以及将残数定理应用于计算用普通步骤无法计算的实函数的反常积分。利用复函数级数的概念或方法,推导出实函数反常积分的计算公式。研究结果表明,用剩余定理计算非自然积分比用普通步骤计算非自然积分更容易、更快。并不是所有实函数的积分都可以用普通的步骤来计算,因此可以使用剩余定理公式作为替代。
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引用次数: 0
PENERAPAN HUKUM DE MOIVRE PADA PENENTUAN NILAI CADANGAN PREMI ASURANSI JIWA JOINT LIFE 更多的退款与共同人寿保险
Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i01.p355
Rizka Aulia Novalinda, I. N. Widana, Ketut Jayanegara
Joint life insurance is a single policy that covers two lives. The benefit is paid out when the first person dies.  Insurance companies need to calculate and assign premiums and a policy value  in order to know. the expected  value of the future loss.  The study used the quantitative data of mortality for men and women obtained from the Indonesian Mortality Table (TMI) 2011. Data analysis techniques use the New Jersey method of prospects and a legal approach of mortality that is De Moivre’s law. The purpose of this study is to determine policy value on joint life insurance that applies to De Moivre's laws and compare policy value on joint life insurance that applies De Moivre's laws and without the application of De Moivre's laws. Research shows that joint life insurance policy value with New Jersey methods of prospective and application of De Moivre's law always come into value smaller than those without an application of De Moivre's law, but at the end of period both are worth the same according to the value of their benefits.
共同人寿保险是一份涵盖两人生命的保险单。福利金在第一个人死亡时支付。保险公司需要计算和分配保费和保单价值才能知道。未来损失的预期价值。该研究使用了2011年印度尼西亚死亡率表(TMI)中获得的男性和女性死亡率的定量数据。数据分析技术使用新泽西的前景方法和死亡率的法律方法,即德莫弗定律。本研究的目的是确定适用De Moivre定律的联合人寿保险的保单价值,并比较适用De Moivre定律和不适用De Moivre定律的联合人寿保险的保单价值。研究表明,采用新泽西法前瞻性和应用德莫弗定律的共同寿险保单价值总是小于未应用德莫弗定律的共同寿险保单价值,但在期限结束时,两者根据其利益价值是相同的。
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引用次数: 0
EXISTENCE AND UNIQUENESS SOLUTION FOR THREE-POINT HADAMARD-TYPE FRACTIONAL VOLTERRA BVP 三点hadamard型分数volterra BVP的存在唯一性解
Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i01.p363
F. Y. Ishak
In this paper we study the existence and uniqueness solution for a first kind fractional Volterra boundary value problem involving Hadamard type and three-point boundary conditions. Our analysis is based on Krasnoselskii-Zabreiko’s fixed point theorem and Banach contraction principle. As an application we discuss a Hadamard type boundary value problem with fractional integral boundary conditions. We emphasize that our results are new in the context of Hadamard fractional calculus and are well illustrated with the aid of examples.
本文研究了一类包含Hadamard型和三点边界条件的第一类分数阶Volterra边值问题的存在唯一解。我们的分析基于Krasnoselskii-Zabreiko的不动点定理和Banach收缩原理。作为一个应用,我们讨论了一个具有分数积分边界条件的Hadamard型边值问题。我们强调,我们的结果在阿达玛分数演算的背景下是新的,并通过例子得到了很好的说明。
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引用次数: 0
CURVE ESTIMATION AND ESTIMATOR PROPERTIES OF THE NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION TRUNCATED SPLINE WITH A MATRIX APPROACH 非参数回归截断样条曲线的矩阵估计及估计量性质
Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i01.p362
N. Fitriyani, I. Budiantara
Regression analysis is one of the statistical analyses used to estimate the relationship between the predictor and the response variable. Data are given in pairs, and the relationship between the predictor and the response variable was assumed to follow a nonparametric regression model. This model is flexible in estimating the curve when a typical data pattern does not follow a specific pattern. The nonparametric regression curve was approached by using the truncated spline function with several knots. The truncated spline estimator in nonparametric regression is linear in the observation. It is highly dependent on the knot points. The regression model's random error is assumed to have an independent normal distribution with zero mean and equal variance. The truncated spline's curve estimate was obtained by minimizing the error model through the least squared optimization method. The nonparametric regression truncated spline's estimator properties are linear, unbiased, and if the error is normally distributed, the estimator is normally distributed.
回归分析是一种用于估计预测因子与响应变量之间关系的统计分析。数据是成对给出的,预测因子和响应变量之间的关系假定遵循非参数回归模型。当典型数据模式不遵循特定模式时,该模型在估计曲线方面是灵活的。采用多节截断样条函数逼近非参数回归曲线。非参数回归的截断样条估计量在观测值上是线性的。它高度依赖于结点。假设回归模型的随机误差为均值为零、方差为等的独立正态分布。通过最小二乘法最小化误差模型,得到截断样条的曲线估计。非参数回归截断样条的估计量是线性的,无偏的,如果误差是正态分布的,则估计量是正态分布的。
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引用次数: 0
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