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PEMODELAN ANGKA MORTALITAS IBU DI PROVINSI BALI MENGGUNAKAN METODE REGRESI POISSON 巴厘岛母亲死亡率模型采用了泊森回归方法
Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i01.p353
NI Putu Nadya Agusviani, I. K. G. Sukarsa, M. Susilawati
Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) is a metric used to assess a region's maternal health status. Maternal death occurs when a woman dies during pregnancy or until 42 days after to the pregnancy itself or its handling. It does not count if the death occurred as a result of an accident or injury. There are number of factors that cause maternal death, one of which is the direct factor that still dominates up to now on. In this study, MMR modeling in Bali was conducted in 2019 by using 6 factors that are thought to be influential. Poisson Regression method is used to determine the factor that cause maternal death. Based on this study of maternal death rate in Province of Bali, it shows that the percentage of pregnant mother visits K1 (X1) and the percentage of obstetric complication cases (X2) are significant towards the variable.       
孕产妇死亡率(MMR)是用于评估一个地区孕产妇健康状况的指标。当妇女在怀孕期间或怀孕后42天或怀孕处理后死亡时,就会发生孕产妇死亡。如果死亡是由事故或伤害造成的,则不计算在内。导致孕产妇死亡的因素有很多,其中一个是迄今为止仍然占主导地位的直接因素。在这项研究中,2019年在巴厘岛使用了6个被认为有影响的因素进行了MMR建模。泊松回归法用于确定导致孕产妇死亡的因素。基于这项对巴厘省孕产妇死亡率的研究,研究表明,孕妇就诊的百分比K1(X1)和产科并发症病例的百分比(X2)对变量具有显著意义。
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引用次数: 0
ANALISIS TINGKAT KEPUASAN KONSUMEN TERHADAP KUALITAS LAYANAN SHOPEE 对SHOPEE服务质量的消费者满意度的分析
Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i01.p358
NI Wayan Widya Ekarani, NI Luh Putu Suciptawati, M. Susilawati
The Covid-19 pandemic caused many people starting to switch to buying and selling online, some of them use Shopee e-commerce. The aim of this study is to analyze the factors that influence customer satisfaction with service quality and to analyze Shopee's service quality using confirmatory factor analysis and e-servqual analysis. The variables of this study are divided into seven dimensions of e-servqual, namely efficiency, fullfilment, system avaibility, privacy, responsiveness, compensation, and contact, with a total of 23 indicators. This study took a sample of 126 Shopee user respondents in Bali Province who had made transactions at least 3 times until 2021. The results of the factor analysis show that there really are seven dimensions that affect the quality of online services. The results of the e-servqual analysis obtained the value of consumer perceptions of service quality is 7.82 , this value was included in the satisfied category. The factors that require focus of attention are the dimensions of system availability, need to improve the system so that the server does not down easily during heavy traffic.
新冠肺炎疫情导致许多人开始转向网上购物,其中一些人使用Shopee电子商务。本研究的目的是分析顾客对服务质量满意的影响因素,并使用验证性因子分析和e-servqual分析来分析Shopee的服务质量。本研究的变量分为电子平等的七个维度,即效率、履行、系统可用性、隐私性、响应性、补偿和接触,共23个指标。本研究选取了巴厘岛126名Shopee用户作为样本,这些用户在2021年之前至少进行过3次交易。因子分析结果表明,影响在线服务质量的因素确实有七个维度。e-servqual分析的结果得出消费者对服务质量的感知值为7.82,该值被纳入满意类别。需要重点关注的因素是系统可用性的维度,需要改进系统,使服务器在繁忙的流量期间不会轻易停机。
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引用次数: 0
IMPROVED EXPONENTIAL APPROACH METHOD DAN ZERO SUFFIX METHOD DALAM MENENTUKAN SOLUSI OPTIMAL PADA MASALAH TRANSPORTASI 最优输水解的改进指数法和零后缀法
Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i01.p356
Istiqomah Istiqomah, Ni Ketut Tari Tastrawati, L. Harini
The problem of transportation is a problem of distributing goods from several sources to several destinations with the aim of minimizing shipping costs. Distribution activities in a company sometimes experience problems in transportation problems so that a model is needed to determine the optimal distribution using the transportation model. This study aims to determine the route of distribution of beras putri sejati 25 kg  in UD Sinar Jaya Abadi so that optimal expenses can be obtained using improved exponential approach and zero suffix method. Based on the calculation results, both methods produce the same three distribution path. The first distribution channel is from Agen Monang Maning to Toko Mekar Sari and Subur Jaya. The second distribution line from the Agen Gatsu Barat to UD Mas Ayana and Toko Dharma. The third line from agen Gianyar to UD Sinar Wangi, Toko Sari Artha, UD Amertha, and Toko Ayu Mega with optimal distribution costs of Rp 1.575.815.00. The difference or efficiency of the total costs incurred in the distribution before and after optimization by UD Sinar Jaya Abadi Rp 499,190.00 or 24%.
运输问题是将货物从几个来源分配到几个目的地的问题,目的是最大限度地降低运输成本。公司中的分销活动有时会遇到运输问题,因此需要使用运输模型来确定最优分销。本研究旨在确定25 kg腐烂的beras putri sejati在UD Sinar Jaya Abadi的分布路线,以便使用改进的指数法和零后缀法获得最佳费用。根据计算结果,两种方法都产生了相同的三分布路径。第一个分销渠道是从阿根莫南马宁到托科Mekar Sari和Subur Jaya。从Agen Gatsu Barat到UD Mas Ayana和Toko Dharma的第二条配电线路。从agen Gianyar到UD Sinar Wangi、Toko Sari Artha、UD Amertha和Toko Ayu Mega的第三条线路,最优配送成本为1.575.815.00卢比。UD Sinar Jaya Abadi优化前后分配中产生的总成本的差异或效率为499190.00卢比或24%。
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引用次数: 0
MEMODELKAN PENYALURAN KREDIT DENGAN REGRESI LINIER BERGANDA 信贷发展与监管的模型化
Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i01.p354
Ni Wayan Angelia Pradnyani, I. G. A. M. Srinadi, I. N. Widana
Credit is one of the movements carried out in economic growth.  This study aims to determine the effect of third party funds, return on assets, interest rates and inflation on lending.  The research was conducted at the Bedha Village Credit Institution (LPD) in the 1993-2020 period.  The data used is quantitative data.  The data analysis technique used is multiple linear regression with the ordinary least square (OLS) method.  The results of the study are that third party funds have a positive effect on credit loans, while interest rates have a negative effect on credit loans, return on assets and inflation have no significant effect on credit loans.
信贷是经济增长中进行的运动之一。本研究旨在确定第三方资金、资产回报率、利率和通货膨胀对贷款的影响。该研究于1993-2020年期间在贝达村信贷机构(LPD)进行。所使用的数据是定量数据。使用的数据分析技术是普通最小二乘(OLS)方法的多元线性回归。研究结果表明,第三方资金对信用贷款有正向影响,而利率对信用贷款有负向影响,资产收益率和通货膨胀对信用贷款没有显著影响。
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引用次数: 0
EBLUP-SMALL AREA ESTIMATION METHOD FOR PER CAPITA EXPENDITURES IN BALI 巴厘岛人均支出的EBLUP-SMALL区域估计方法
Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i01.p361
L. Amaliana, Made Laras Setyana Dewi
Small Area Estimation (SAE) is a statistical technique for estimating the parameters of a sub-population with a small sample size. SAE aims to improve the accuracy of parameter estimation, with indirect estimation. This study aims to determine the best method between empirical best linear unbiased prediction (EBLUP) and spatial EBLUP methods (with a queen contiguity weighted matrix) in estimating per capita expenditure per sub-district in Bali. The results of this study indicate that the best SAE method in estimating per capita expenditure per sub-district in Bali is the EBLUP method with the smaller mean squared error. The EBLUP estimation results are significantly influenced by three variables, namely the population, public primary schools, and families using PLN. The sub-district with the highest per capita expenditure in Bali is Denpasar Selatan sub-district. Meanwhile, the sub-district with the lowest per capita expenditure was Abang sub-district. Since the EBLUP model is better than SEBLUP model, this indicates that per capita expenditure per sub-district in Bali is not influenced by its neighbors.
小区域估计(SAE)是一种统计技术,用于估计具有小样本量的子种群的参数。SAE旨在通过间接估计来提高参数估计的准确性。本研究旨在确定经验最佳线性无偏预测(EBLUP)和空间EBLUP方法(采用女王邻接加权矩阵)在估算巴厘岛每个街道的人均支出时的最佳方法。研究结果表明,估算巴厘岛每个街道的人均支出的最佳SAE方法是均方误差较小的EBLUP方法。EBLUP估计结果受到三个变量的显著影响,即人口、公立小学和使用PLN的家庭。巴厘岛人均支出最高的街道是登巴萨塞拉坦街道。同时,人均支出最低的街道是阿邦街道。由于EBLUP模型优于SEBLUP模型,这表明巴厘岛每个街道的人均支出不受其邻国的影响。
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引用次数: 1
ANALISIS JALUR FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI RISIKO TERKENA PENYAKIT DIABETES MELITUS 分析影响患糖尿病风险的因素的路径
Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i01.p359
Dominggas Teo, I. K. G. Sukarsa, I. G. A. M. Srinadi, I. P. E. N. Kencana
Diabetes mellitus is a non-contagious disease that causes the increas of death rates in Indonesia. This study aims to determine the causality between Age, Occupation, Cholesterol effects of Age, Occupation, Cholesterol Levels, and Blood Pressure Risk of Diabetes Mellitus (DM). The population in this study were all patients at the Beru Public Health Center, with a sample of 200 patients. The analytical method used in this research is Path Analysis with the help of directly or indirectly. The results showed that age and blood pressure had a direct positive effect on cholesterol levels and blood pressure, and age, cholesterol levels and blood pressure also directly affected the risk of developing DM. Age and occupation also affect the risk of developing DM indirectly.
糖尿病是一种导致印度尼西亚死亡率上升的非传染性疾病。本研究旨在确定年龄、职业、胆固醇对年龄、职业、胆固醇水平与糖尿病(DM)血压风险的因果关系。本研究的人群均为贝鲁公共卫生中心的患者,样本为200名患者。本研究采用的分析方法是直接或间接的路径分析法。结果显示,年龄和血压对胆固醇水平和血压有直接的正向影响,年龄、胆固醇水平和血压也直接影响患糖尿病的风险。年龄和职业也间接影响患糖尿病的风险。
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引用次数: 0
APLIKASI COX PROPORTIONAL HAZARD PADA SINTASAN PASIEN ASMA COX应用程序
Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2022.v11.i01.p360
NI Nengah Rika Puspita, M. Susilawati, NI Luh Putu Suciptawati
Asthma is defined as a chronic inflammatory disease of the respiratory tract. Since 2013, Bali ranks sixth out of thirty three provinces in Indonesia for the most asthma patient. This study has a purpose to examine the influential factors on the cure rate of asthma patients and determine the best model using the stepwise method. To determine the survival rate of asthma patients, a statistical method that involves censored data is used by applying the Cox Proportional Hazard regression.  The data used in this study were medical records of asthma patients who were hospitalized at the Wongaya Regional General Hospital in Denpasar for the period January , 2019 to April , 2020. The analysis of this study discovered that significant variables for the survival of asthma patients were age and disease.
哮喘被定义为呼吸道的慢性炎症性疾病。自2013年以来,巴厘岛在印尼33个省份中哮喘患者数量排名第六。本研究旨在探讨影响哮喘患者治愈率的因素,并采用逐步方法确定最佳模型。为了确定哮喘患者的生存率,采用了一种涉及删减数据的统计方法,即应用Cox比例风险回归。本研究中使用的数据是2019年1月至2020年4月期间在登巴萨Wongaya地区综合医院住院的哮喘患者的医疗记录。本研究的分析发现,影响哮喘患者生存的重要变量是年龄和疾病。
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引用次数: 0
PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG PESAWAT BANDARA I GUSTI NGURAH RAI MENGGUNAKAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN RUEY-CHYN TSAUR 打护手牌的处理我想活下来拉伊做了指数平滑和蔡素玉
Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2021.v10.i04.p346
Wildan Fatturahman Mujtaba, I. G. A. M. Srinadi, I. W. Sumarjaya
Bali province is a tourist destination island with good transportation. Airplane is the most used transportation to go to Bali. Convenience of the airline passengers are the most important thing for I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport Authorithy. An exact forecast method is needed to predict the numbers of passenger in the future. There are two types of forecasting methods; triple exponential smoothing and Fuzzy Time Series Ruey-Chyn Tsaur, however based on the research Fuzzy Time Series Ruey-Chyn Tsaur is better than triple exponential smoothing due to a small error MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) of 2,4% and plot is close to actual data.
巴厘岛是一个旅游目的地,交通便利。飞机是去巴厘岛最常用的交通工具。航空公司乘客的便利是我Gusti Ngurah Rai机场权威机构最重要的事情。需要一种准确的预测方法来预测未来的乘客人数。有两种类型的预测方法;三指数平滑和模糊时间序列Ruey Chyn Tsaur,但基于研究,模糊时间序列Ruey Chyn Tsaur优于三指数平滑,因为MAPE(平均绝对百分比误差)的小误差为2,4%,并且图接近实际数据。
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引用次数: 1
PENGGUNAAN MODEL ARIMAX UNTUK MERAMALKAN DATA CURAH HUJAN BULANAN DI BALI 去除巴厘岛月度数据的ARIMAX模型开发
Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2021.v10.i04.p341
Chairun Nisa, I. W. Sumarjaya, I. G. A. M. Srinadi
Erratic raifall in the future has a major effect on life. Extreme rainfall can result in vaarious natural phenomena that have a negative impact in various fields work. The aim of this research is to find the best rainfall forecastng model in Bali using ARIMAX modeling, namely the transfer function model with an indeks Nino 3.4 as the input series. The transfer function model is a time series model that combines the regression approach and the ARIMA model for its error. Forecasting results suggest that the rainfall is linearly related to the Nino 3.4 indeks in the previous month. The best rainfall forecasting model has a value Akaike information criterion (AIC) is equal to 1334,629.
未来不稳定的降雨对生活有重大影响。极端降雨会导致各种自然现象,对各个领域的工作产生负面影响。本研究的目的是利用ARIMAX模型寻找巴厘岛最佳的降水预报模型,即以指标Nino 3.4为输入序列的传递函数模型。传递函数模型是一种将回归方法与ARIMA模型相结合的时间序列模型。预报结果表明,前月降水与Nino 3.4指数呈线性相关。最佳降水预报模型的值为赤池信息准则(AIC) = 1334,629。
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引用次数: 0
SMOTE: POTENSI DAN KEKURANGANNYA PADA SURVEI 斯莫尔特:调查潜力和劣势
Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.24843/mtk.2021.v10.i04.p348
Nirwana Wijayanti, Eka N. KENCANA, I. W. Sumarjaya
Imbalanced data is a problem that is often found in real-world cases of classification. Imbalanced data causes misclassification will tend to occur in the minority class. This can lead to errors in decision-making if the minority class has important information and it’s the focus of attention in research. Generally, there are two approaches that can be taken to deal with the problem of imbalanced data, the data level approach and the algorithm level approach. The data level approach has proven to be very effective in dealing with imbalanced data and more flexible. The oversampling method is one of the data level approaches that generally gives better results than the undersampling method. SMOTE is the most popular oversampling method used in more applications. In this study, we will discuss in more detail the SMOTE method, potential, and disadvantages of this method. In general, this method is intended to avoid overfitting and improve classification performance in the minority class. However, this method also causes overgeneralization which tends to be overlapping.
数据不平衡是一个经常出现在现实世界分类案例中的问题。数据不平衡导致的错误分类往往会发生在少数群体中。如果少数群体掌握了重要信息,这可能会导致决策失误,而这正是研究的重点。一般来说,有两种方法可以用来处理数据不平衡的问题,数据级方法和算法级方法。事实证明,数据级方法在处理不平衡数据方面非常有效,而且更加灵活。过采样方法是数据级方法之一,通常比欠采样方法给出更好的结果。SMOTE是在更多应用中使用的最流行的过采样方法。在本研究中,我们将更详细地讨论SMOTE方法、该方法的潜力和缺点。通常,这种方法旨在避免过拟合,并提高少数类的分类性能。然而,这种方法也会导致过度概括,这往往是重叠的。
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引用次数: 5
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E-Jurnal Matematika
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