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Oil price shocks and bond risk premia: Evidence from a panel of 15 countries 石油价格冲击与债券风险溢价:来自 15 个国家面板的证据
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107940
We study the effect of oil price shocks on bond risk premia. Based on Baumeister and Hamilton (2019), we identify the different sources of oil price shocks using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global market for crude oil. These structural factors are then used as unspanned factors in an affine term structure model based on the representation of Joslin et al. (2014). This is done for a total of 15 countries. Unspanned factors are responsible for most of the variability in bond risk premia for short holding periods, while spanned factors dominate the variance decomposition for longer holding periods. In both cases, global oil supply and global economic activity are clearly the most important unspanned shocks. A historical decomposition around the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis shows the clear influence of global economic activity shocks during the months of February and March 2020, increasing bond risk premia significantly.
我们研究了石油价格冲击对债券风险溢价的影响。在 Baumeister 和 Hamilton(2019)的基础上,我们使用全球原油市场的结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型来识别油价冲击的不同来源。然后,根据乔斯林等人(2014 年)的表述,将这些结构性因素作为仿射期限结构模型中的非跨期因素。该模型适用于 15 个国家。在短持有期内,非跨度因子是债券风险溢价变异的主要原因,而在较长持有期内,跨度因子在方差分解中占主导地位。在这两种情况下,全球石油供应和全球经济活动显然是最重要的非跨期冲击因素。COVID-19 危机爆发前后的历史分解显示,2020 年 2 月和 3 月期间全球经济活动冲击的影响明显,债券风险溢价显著上升。
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引用次数: 0
From bytes to green: The impact of supply chain digitization on corporate green innovation 从字节到绿色:供应链数字化对企业绿色创新的影响
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107942
A significant share of corporate carbon emissions stems from the supply chain, necessitating an analysis of how supply chain digitalization influences green innovation in the digital age. This paper examines this impact using data from Chinese listed firms (2012−2022). Theoretically, the study posits that supply chain digitalization facilitates green innovation through two primary mechanisms: enhancing upstream and downstream integration and boosting the internal efficiency of supply chain management at nodal enterprises. Empirically, a quasi-natural experiment leveraging the Supply Chain Innovation and Application Pilot Program serves as an exogenous shock. Key findings include: (1) Supply chain digitalization enhances corporate green innovation, with robust results across various tests. (2) The effect is mainly driven by enhanced supply chain integration—more from supplier concentration than customer concentration—and improved internal supply chain management efficiency. (3) The impact has three characteristics: Quality-first Effect, Crowding-in Effect and Persistence Effect. Specifically, supply chain digitalization mainly boosts high-quality green invention patent applications without crowding-out other non-green innovation, while also positively influences sustained green innovation. (4) Supply chain digitalization primarily enhances green innovation in End-of-Pipe and Process Control Technologies, with limited effects on Pollution Prevention at Source.
企业碳排放的很大一部分来自供应链,因此有必要分析供应链数字化如何影响数字时代的绿色创新。本文利用中国上市公司的数据(2012-2022 年)研究了这一影响。理论上,研究认为供应链数字化通过两个主要机制促进绿色创新:加强上下游整合和提高节点企业供应链管理的内部效率。在实证研究中,利用 "供应链创新与应用试点计划 "的准自然实验作为外生冲击。主要结论包括(1) 供应链数字化增强了企业的绿色创新,在各种测试中结果都很稳健。(2)其影响主要来自于供应链整合的加强--更多来自于供应商集中而非客户集中,以及内部供应链管理效率的提高。(3) 影响有三个特征:质量优先效应(Quality-first Effect)、挤入效应(Crowding-in Effect)和持续效应(Persistence Effect)。具体来说,供应链数字化主要促进了高质量的绿色发明专利申请,而不会排挤其他非绿色创新,同时还对持续的绿色创新产生积极影响。(4) 供应链数字化主要促进了末端技术和过程控制技术的绿色创新,对源头污染防治的影响有限。
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引用次数: 0
Postprocessing of point predictions for probabilistic forecasting of day-ahead electricity prices: The benefits of using isotonic distributional regression 用于日前电价概率预测的点预测后处理:使用等势分布回归的好处
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107934
Operational decisions relying on predictive distributions of electricity prices can result in significantly higher profits compared to those based solely on point forecasts. However, the majority of models developed in both academic and industrial settings provide only point predictions. To address this, we examine three postprocessing methods for converting point forecasts of day-ahead electricity prices into probabilistic ones: Quantile Regression Averaging, Conformal Prediction, and the recently introduced Isotonic Distributional Regression. We find that while the latter demonstrates the most varied behavior, it contributes the most to the ensemble of the three predictive distributions, as measured by Shapley values. Remarkably, the performance of the combination is superior to that of state-of-the-art Distributional Deep Neural Networks over two 4.5-year test periods from the German and Spanish power markets, spanning the COVID pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
与仅基于点预测的决策相比,依靠电价预测分布做出的运营决策可带来更高的利润。然而,学术界和工业界开发的大多数模型都只提供点预测。为了解决这个问题,我们研究了将日前电价的点预测转换为概率预测的三种后处理方法:定量回归平均法、共形预测法和最近推出的等比分布回归法。我们发现,虽然后者的行为变化最大,但从夏普利值来看,它对三种预测分布的集合贡献最大。值得注意的是,在德国和西班牙电力市场的两个为期 4.5 年的测试期间(跨越 COVID 大流行和乌克兰战争),该组合的性能优于最先进的分布式深度神经网络。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting interval carbon price through a multi-scale interval-valued decomposition ensemble approach 通过多尺度区间值分解集合方法预测区间碳价格
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107952
This paper proposes a novel Multi-scale Interval-valued Decomposition Ensemble (MIDE) framework for forecasting European Union Allowance (EUA) carbon futures prices, which integrates Noise-assisted Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition (NAMEMD), Interval-valued Vector Auto-Regressive (IVAR) model, Interval Event Analysis (IEA) method, and Interval Multi-Layer Perceptron (IMLP). First, the original interval-valued carbon prices with other interval-valued control variables are decomposed and integrated into high, medium, and low-frequency components by NAMEMD. Second, IVAR is used to investigate the dynamics of the interval-valued vector system in low-frequency components, while IMLP is employed to characterize the high-frequency components. Besides, the interval event analysis investigates typical events that significantly impact carbon prices in the medium-frequency component. Furthermore, empirical findings indicate that our proposed MIDE learning approach significantly outperforms some other benchmark models in out-of-sample forecasting.
本文提出了一种用于预测欧盟配额(EUA)碳期货价格的新型多尺度区间值分解集合(MIDE)框架,该框架集成了噪声辅助多变量经验模式分解(NAMEMD)、区间值矢量自回归(IVAR)模型、区间事件分析(IEA)方法和区间多层感知器(IMLP)。首先,利用 NAMEMD 将原始区间值碳价格与其他区间值控制变量分解并整合为高、中、低频成分。其次,利用 IVAR 研究区间值向量系统在低频成分中的动态变化,同时利用 IMLP 描述高频成分的特征。此外,区间事件分析研究了在中频成分中对碳价格产生重大影响的典型事件。此外,实证研究结果表明,我们提出的 MIDE 学习方法在样本外预测方面明显优于其他一些基准模型。
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引用次数: 0
Global spillovers of US climate policy risk: Evidence from EU carbon emissions futures 美国气候政策风险的全球溢出效应:欧盟碳排放期货的证据
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107931
International climate policy risk spillovers occur when expected changes to climate policy stringency in one country affect expected climate policy stringency in another country. We develop an event study procedure to identify such spillovers in emissions trading systems, specifically examining the impact from the United States (US) to the European Union (EU). Distinguishing between policy events likely to reduce US commitment to climate action (‘brown events’) and those likely to increase it (‘green events’), we find that the average brown US policy event is associated with an anticipated increase in future EU carbon permit supply, leading to a cumulative 7.1% drop in EU carbon prices over the event window. Conversely, green US policy events are linked to an expected decrease in future EU permit supply, resulting in a cumulative 4.7% rise in EU carbon prices. These findings suggest that financial markets anticipate EU regulators to align with the direction of US climate policy. Our results underscore the significance of regulatory risk spillovers in global climate policy coordination.
当一国气候政策严格程度的预期变化影响到另一国气候政策严格程度的预期变化时,就会产生国际气候政策风险溢出效应。我们开发了一种事件研究程序来识别排放贸易体系中的此类溢出效应,特别是研究了美国对欧盟的影响。通过区分可能减少美国气候行动承诺的政策事件("褐色事件")和可能增加承诺的政策事件("绿色事件"),我们发现,平均而言,美国褐色政策事件与欧盟未来碳许可供应的预期增加相关联,导致欧盟碳价格在事件窗口期间累计下降 7.1%。相反,美国绿色政策事件与未来欧盟碳排放许可证供应量预期减少有关,导致欧盟碳价格累计上涨 4.7%。这些发现表明,金融市场预期欧盟监管机构将与美国气候政策方向保持一致。我们的研究结果强调了监管风险溢出效应在全球气候政策协调中的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
A comment on “Assessing the effectiveness of energy efficiency measures in the residential sector gas consumption through dynamic treatment effects: Evidence from England and Wales” 关于 "通过动态处理效果评估住宅部门燃气消耗的能效措施的有效性:来自英格兰和威尔士的证据"
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107946
In our previous publication “Assessing the effectiveness of energy efficiency measures in the residential sector gas consumption through dynamic treatment effects: Evidence from England and Wales”, we analyzed the impact of the implementation of energy efficiency (EE) measures, in particular loft insulation and cavity walls, on household gas consumption up to five years after installation. Upon review, we realized that our phrasing, specifically the term “energy savings disappear,” might have led to misunderstandings regarding our findings. In this commentary, we clarify that our results indicate reductions in the level of energy (gas) savings achieved, two to four years after the implementation of the energy efficiency measures. The adoption of EE measures is associated with significant reductions in household residential gas consumption one year after their implementation, as we expressed in Peñasco and Anadon (2023). However, the level of savings decreases four years after the retrofitting of cavity wall insulation measures and two years after the installation of loft insulation, generating increases in consumption with respect to the maximum level of savings achieved, i.e., rebounds in consumption. We find that, after five years, energy savings from loft installations are still positive, in the range of 4–5 % compared to the control group—a level of savings that represents a rebound of about 20–25 %, when compared to the maximum level of savings that occurs two years after installation. For cavity walls, after five years gas savings are in the range of 6–9 % compared to the control group, with rebounds of about 10–13 % compared to the maximum savings in year two. This clarification is crucial to prevent a misinterpretation of the results in future research and policy making.
在我们之前的出版物 "通过动态处理效应评估节能措施对住宅部门燃气消耗量的影响:英格兰和威尔士的证据 "中,我们分析了节能措施(尤其是阁楼隔热和空心墙)在安装后五年内对家庭燃气消耗量的影响。经过回顾,我们意识到我们的措辞,特别是 "节能效果消失 "一词,可能会导致人们对我们的研究结果产生误解。在本评论中,我们澄清,我们的结果表明,在实施节能措施两到四年后,所实现的节能(燃气)水平有所下降。正如我们在 Peñasco 和 Anadon(2023 年)一书中所表述的,节能措施实施一年后,家庭住宅燃气消耗量会显著减少。然而,在加装空腔墙隔热措施四年后和安装阁楼隔热设施两年后,节约水平会下降,从而导致消耗量相对于最大节约水平的增加,即消耗量的反弹。我们发现,五年后,阁楼保温隔热设施的节能效果仍然良好,与对照组相比,节能效果在 4-5% 之间,与安装两年后的最大节能效果相比,节能效果反弹了约 20-25%。就空心墙而言,与对照组相比,五年后的燃气节约率为 6-9%,与第二年的最大节约率相比,反弹率约为 10-13%。为了防止在未来的研究和政策制定中对结果产生误解,这一说明至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Bluer skies and clearer rivers? Returnees as silver bullets for pollution abatement in an emerging economy 更蓝的天空和更清澈的河流?海归是新兴经济体减少污染的银弹
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107950
Emerging economies are burdened with multiple tasks related to economic development and environmental protection. Based on the phenomenon of “brain gain,” we examine whether overseas-returned executives (“returnees”) help emerging economies better cope with this multitasking. Drawing insights from a Chinese listed firm dataset for the period 2010–2020, this study provides significant observations regarding returnees' influence on firms' environmental performance. The findings show that hiring returnees makes firms greener for three main reasons. First, returnees enjoy favorable treatment provided by the worksite, and the mood of giving back makes them inclined toward low-pollution development. Second, returnees have more green skills. Third, returnees alleviate the principal–agent problem of firms in green development. There are also some extended findings from this study. As inferred from the firms' environmental performance, returnees' overseas study experience may be more important than pure overseas work experience. Additionally, firms that green up by hiring returnees are not biased by firm seniority. Finally, if returnees are viewed as a scarce resource, conditional talent wars will emerge among firms. These findings provide insight into how emerging economies can balance economic development with environmental protection.
新兴经济体肩负着与经济发展和环境保护相关的多重任务。基于 "人才回流 "现象,我们研究了海外归国高管("海归")是否有助于新兴经济体更好地应对这一多重任务。通过对 2010-2020 年间中国上市公司数据集的分析,本研究就海归对企业环境绩效的影响提供了重要观察结果。研究结果表明,聘用海归使企业更环保主要有三个原因。首先,海归享受工作单位提供的优厚待遇,回馈社会的情绪使他们倾向于低污染发展。第二,海归拥有更多的绿色技能。第三,返乡人员缓解了企业在绿色发展中的委托代理问题。本研究还有一些延伸结论。从企业的环境绩效推断,海归的海外学习经历可能比纯粹的海外工作经历更重要。此外,通过聘用海归来实现绿色发展的企业不会受到企业资历的影响。最后,如果海归被视为稀缺资源,企业之间就会出现有条件的人才争夺战。这些发现为新兴经济体如何在经济发展与环境保护之间取得平衡提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the risk dynamics of US green energy stocks: A green time-varying beta approach 探索美国绿色能源股票的风险动态:绿色时变贝塔法
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107951
Green investments play a crucial role in fighting climate change and facilitating the shift towards a low-carbon economy in line with goals of the Paris Agreement. This paper focuses on the U.S. green energy sector, analyzing its underlying risk dynamics, especially during crisis periods. In this paper, we employ a novel green energy time-varying beta (GETVB) to assess the risk profiles of U.S. green energy stocks across different market conditions. We have chosen NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index (CELS) as the U.S. green energy market index. We use Markov-switching and discrete-threshold-regression models to examine whether the GETVB varies across regimes and is affected by market stress. In particular, we examine if the market risk of these stocks itself exhibits higher volatility during regimes of stress. Our results show that the green stocks are apparently risky, with a GETVB most likely to lie between 1.2 and 1.6. However, these stocks turn out to be resilient against market volatility with the market stress having negligible impact on GETVB. This suggests an inherent robustness of green stocks against extreme market conditions. This resilience makes the U.S. green energy stocks a potential safe destination for investors during times of significant market volatility. Based on the results, we recommend that policymakers bolster support for green investments through enhanced tax incentives and subsidies, aiming to standardize the ESG metrics for increased transparency, and aligning the international financial flows with strategies that align with meeting the Paris Agreement targets.
根据《巴黎协定》的目标,绿色投资在应对气候变化和促进向低碳经济转变方面发挥着至关重要的作用。本文重点关注美国绿色能源行业,分析其潜在的风险动态,尤其是在危机时期。本文采用新颖的绿色能源时变贝塔系数(GETVB)来评估美国绿色能源股票在不同市场条件下的风险状况。我们选择纳斯达克 Clean Edge 绿色能源指数(CELS)作为美国绿色能源市场指数。我们使用马尔科夫转换模型和离散阈值回归模型来研究 GETVB 在不同制度下是否会发生变化,以及是否会受到市场压力的影响。特别是,我们研究了这些股票的市场风险本身在压力时期是否表现出更高的波动性。我们的研究结果表明,绿色股票显然风险较高,其 GETVB 最有可能介于 1.2 和 1.6 之间。然而,这些股票在市场波动面前却表现得很有弹性,市场压力对 GETVB 的影响微乎其微。这表明绿色股票在极端市场条件下具有内在的稳健性。这种韧性使美国绿色能源股票在市场大幅波动时成为投资者的潜在安全目的地。基于上述结果,我们建议政策制定者通过加强税收激励和补贴来加强对绿色投资的支持,旨在规范 ESG 指标以提高透明度,并使国际资金流动与实现《巴黎协定》目标的战略保持一致。
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引用次数: 0
How do renewable energy, energy innovation and climate change shape the energy transition in USA? Unraveling the role of green finance development 可再生能源、能源创新和气候变化如何影响美国的能源转型?解读绿色金融发展的作用
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107947
Over the past, all the big economies across the world are focusing on attainment of objectives of COP27 and COP28 and USA is forefront among them. Therefore, present study aims to unraveling the role of renewable energy, energy innovation, climate change and green financial development in mapping and shaping the energy transition system in the USA. In view of this, study utilizes annual data of said constructs from 2008 to 2022 and estimates through Dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag simulations (DARDLS) approach. Results indicate the positve impacts of renewable energy and energy innovation on energy transition and sustainable energy management in both long and short run. Whereas green financial development reflects low positive impact on energy transition in short run and getting stronger in long run. Expectedly, climate change adversely affect the energy transition and increases energy risk for the USA. Policy implications and Government frameworks are suggested to facilitate the renewable energy, energy innovation and green financial development and to mitigate climate change risk in USA.
过去,全球所有大型经济体都在关注 COP27 和 COP28 目标的实现,美国是其中的佼佼者。因此,本研究旨在揭示可再生能源、能源创新、气候变化和绿色金融发展在描绘和塑造美国能源转型体系中的作用。有鉴于此,本研究利用了 2008 年至 2022 年的年度数据,并通过动态自回归分布式滞后模拟(DARDLS)方法进行了估算。结果表明,可再生能源和能源创新对能源转型和可持续能源管理具有长期和短期的积极影响。而绿色金融发展在短期内对能源转型的积极影响较小,在长期内则越来越大。预计气候变化会对能源转型产生不利影响,并增加美国的能源风险。为促进美国的可再生能源、能源创新和绿色金融发展以及降低气候变化风险,提出了政策影响和政府框架建议。
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引用次数: 0
Banks' fossil fuel divestment and corporate governance: The role of board gender diversity 银行撤资化石燃料与公司治理:董事会性别多样性的作用
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107948
This study investigates the relationship between bank boards' characteristics and their commitment to divest from fossil fuels. Using data on worldwide listed banks from 2016 to 2022, the results show a positive influence of board gender diversity on bank divestment from fossil fuel companies. We find that this result holds even following numerous robustness tests. A sub-sample analysis reveals that the effect of board gender diversity is significant for laggards' countries in environmental performance. These results highlight that greater gender diversity in board composition promotes sustainability, facilitating a shift towards business models prioritizing environmental goals. Evidence also offers valuable insights for policymakers in their efforts to align financial activities with sustainability goals. By embracing these implications, banks can contribute to the global transition towards a more environmentally sustainable and socially responsible future.
本研究探讨了银行董事会的特征与其承诺从化石燃料撤资之间的关系。利用 2016 年至 2022 年全球上市银行的数据,研究结果表明,董事会性别多样性对银行从化石燃料公司撤资具有积极影响。我们发现,即使经过大量稳健性测试,这一结果仍然成立。子样本分析表明,对于环境绩效落后的国家,董事会性别多元化的影响是显著的。这些结果突出表明,董事会组成中更大程度的性别多元化能促进可持续发展,推动向优先考虑环境目标的商业模式转变。这些证据还为政策制定者提供了宝贵的见解,帮助他们努力使金融活动与可持续发展目标保持一致。通过接受这些影响,银行可以为全球向环境更可持续、对社会更负责的未来转型做出贡献。
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引用次数: 0
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Energy Economics
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