Energy Economics最新文献

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Geopolitical risk and energy price crash risk 地缘政治风险和能源价格暴跌风险

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107975

Nicholas Apergis , Hany Fahmy

This paper explores the link between geopolitical risks and energy prices crash risk. Studying energy price crashes is important given the sharp fall in oil prices in 2008 and 2014. The analysis focuses on three energy markets: natural gas, oil, and coal, while it employs two measures: the negative coefficient of skewness and the down-to-up volatility, to construct proxies for crash risks. The period of examination is January 2000 to December 2023, whereas that for coal is January 2010 to December 2023. The study employs a modified version of the smooth transition autoregressive model. The results show that, within the modelling framework, coal and oil crash risks are driven by the cyclical behavior of geopolitical acts, whereas natural gas crash risks by geopolitical threats. Causality tests confirm the prediction that geopolitical tensions cause crash risks in energy markets. The results also confirm that the “Economic Activity Channel” is only valid for energy markets driven by geopolitical threats. Energy market regulators should be concerned about crash risks, given that the energy supply shows cyclical boom and bust cycles in prices and production. Crash risks could also potentially cause a fall in investments required to enhance energy efficiency.

本文探讨了地缘政治风险与能源价格暴跌风险之间的联系。鉴于 2008 年和 2014 年石油价格暴跌，研究能源价格暴跌具有重要意义。分析主要针对三个能源市场：天然气、石油和煤炭，并采用两个指标：负偏度系数和从下到上的波动率来构建崩盘风险的代理变量。考察期为 2000 年 1 月至 2023 年 12 月，而煤炭的考察期为 2010 年 1 月至 2023 年 12 月。研究采用了改进版的平稳过渡自回归模型。结果表明，在模型框架内，煤炭和石油崩盘风险受地缘政治行为周期性行为的驱动，而天然气崩盘风险受地缘政治威胁的驱动。因果检验证实了地缘政治紧张局势导致能源市场崩盘风险的预测。结果还证实，"经济活动渠道 "只适用于由地缘政治威胁驱动的能源市场。鉴于能源供应在价格和产量上呈现周期性繁荣和萧条循环，能源市场监管者应关注崩盘风险。崩溃风险还可能导致提高能源效率所需的投资下降。

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引用次数: 0

The downstream firm's decision over R&D for energy-saving 下游企业的节能研发决策

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107990

Chia-Chi Wang , Ying-Da Wang , Jiunn-Rong Chiou

Although energy saving for a firm is very important, the R&D literature has rarely discussed this issue. This paper provides a vertically-related model to analyze how conducting energy-saving R&D affects the upstream firm's pricing decision and downstream firm's energy-saving and output decisions. We show that an increase in energy price may induce the downstream firm to purchase more energy, but less efficient R&D may not induce the downstream firm to purchase more energy. Moreover, more efficient R&D may not increase the energy price under the upstream monopoly case. Finally, social welfare may not improve when the upstream market becomes more competitive.

虽然节能对企业非常重要，但研发文献却很少讨论这一问题。本文提供了一个纵向相关模型，分析开展节能研发如何影响上游企业的定价决策以及下游企业的节能和产出决策。我们的研究表明，能源价格的上涨可能会促使下游企业购买更多的能源，但效率较低的研发活动可能不会促使下游企业购买更多的能源。此外，在上游垄断的情况下，更有效的 R&D 可能不会提高能源价格。最后，当上游市场竞争更加激烈时，社会福利可能不会提高。

引用次数: 0

Carbon mitigation effect of emission trading product: Perspective from intra-industry carbon leakage 排放交易产品的碳减排效果：从产业内碳泄漏的视角

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107966

Kaiguo Zhou , Zihuan Guan , Yujun Lian

Carbon mitigation within key industries has become a paramount concern in China, yet research focusing on industry-level emissions remains limited despite comprehensive validation of the efficacy of emission trading schemes (ETS) at both enterprise and regional levels. This paper addresses this gap by examining the intra-industry carbon leakage. Firstly, applying multi-period DID method to the industry-level data from 2000 to 2018 in Guangdong province, we empirically find a counterintuitive increase in carbon emissions in the compliance industries despite mitigation efforts by compliance enterprises in the same industries. Secondly, we build a Stackelberg quantity leadership model incorporating ETS and theoretically find that, the intra-industry carbon leakage results in this increased industry-level emissions, notably through the cost crowding-in mechanism. Further theoretical analysis underscores the pivotal role of enhancing ETS coverage ratios for enterprises within compliance industries and bolstering the carbon price mechanism's capacity to accurately reflect enterprises' demand for carbon allowances. Such enhancements are anticipated to effectively mitigate intra-industry carbon leakage and facilitate reductions in industry-level carbon emissions.

在中国，重点行业的碳减排已成为当务之急，然而，尽管在企业和地区层面对排放交易计划（ETS）的有效性进行了全面验证，但针对行业层面排放的研究仍然有限。本文通过对行业内碳泄漏的研究填补了这一空白。首先，我们对广东省 2000 年至 2018 年的行业层面数据采用多期 DID 方法，实证发现，尽管同行业的履约企业做出了减排努力，但履约行业的碳排放量却出现了反直觉的增长。其次，我们建立了一个包含 ETS 的 Stackelberg 数量领先模型，并从理论上发现，行业内的碳泄漏导致了行业层面的碳排放增加，这主要是通过成本挤入机制实现的。进一步的理论分析强调了提高 ETS 对履约行业内企业的覆盖率和增强碳价格机制准确反映企业对碳配额需求的能力的关键作用。预计这些改进将有效缓解行业内的碳泄漏，促进行业层面碳排放的减少。

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引用次数: 0

Can the sentiment of the official media predict the return volatility of the Chinese crude oil futures? 官方媒体的情绪能否预测中国原油期货的回归波动？

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107967

Zhiwei Xu , Shiqi Gan , Xia Hua , Yujie Xiong

This study investigates whether the sentiment of Chinese official media towards crude oil influences price volatility of the Chinese crude oil futures (SC). By leveraging textual analysis through Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), we quantify the sentiment of oil-related articles published by the primary official media in China. Our main finding, building on both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses, robustly reveals that this sentiment significantly forecasts the one-day-ahead intraday return volatility of SC. Moreover, we extend the analysis to different time horizons (i.e., one-week and one-month-ahead) and find the prominent forecasting power of the official media sentiment as well. We also find that the official media sentiment fails to forecast the price volatility of WTI oil futures, implying that the official media sentiment contains some unique Chinese information. Overall, our study contributes to the existing literature on predicting the return volatility of the Chinese crude oil futures, and offers fresh insights into an essential yet underexplored sentiment, i.e., official media sentiment.

本研究探讨了中国官方媒体对原油的情绪是否会影响中国原油期货（SC）的价格波动。我们通过转换器双向编码器表征（BERT）进行文本分析，量化了中国主要官方媒体发表的石油相关文章的情感。在样本内和样本外分析的基础上，我们的主要发现有力地揭示了这种情绪可以显著预测 SC 的单日前盘中收益波动。此外，我们将分析扩展到不同的时间跨度（即一周前和一个月前），发现官方媒体情绪也具有突出的预测能力。我们还发现，官方媒体情绪未能预测 WTI 石油期货的价格波动，这意味着官方媒体情绪包含了一些独特的中国信息。总之，我们的研究为预测中国原油期货收益波动性的现有文献做出了贡献，并为一种重要但未被充分探索的情绪（即官方媒体情绪）提供了新的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Political spillover effects of environmental policy: Evidence from China 环境政策的政治溢出效应：来自中国的证据

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107936

Mengmeng Xu, Zihao Wang

This paper explores the causal relationship between automatic environmental monitoring and political trust. We utilize staggered monitoring automation as exogenous shocks to assess the impact on residents' political trust. Our findings reveal a significant and positive effect of monitoring automation on political trust, a factor rarely considered by most existing studies. The mechanism investigation shows that monitoring automation has heightened residents' environmental concerns and increased their expectations regarding the government's role in pollution prevention. This paper offers a pioneering quantitative assessment of feedback from residents due to a specific environmental policy, suggesting that potential spillover effect should be considered.

本文探讨了环境自动监测与政治信任之间的因果关系。我们利用交错监测自动化作为外生冲击来评估其对居民政治信任的影响。我们的研究结果表明，监测自动化对政治信任有显著的积极影响，而大多数现有研究很少考虑这一因素。机制调查表明，监测自动化提高了居民对环境的关注，增加了他们对政府在污染防治中的作用的期望。本文开创性地对特定环境政策引起的居民反馈进行了定量评估，表明应考虑潜在的溢出效应。

引用次数: 0

A curse on leisure? Resource rents and labor supply 闲暇的诅咒？资源租金与劳动力供给

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107956

Achtee Al Yussef, Luc Hens, Joshua Holm

An extensive literature establishes the resource curse, the paradoxical tendency of societies with more natural resources to have worse economic outcomes. Our formal model extends the resource curse literature in several ways. First, there may exist a general tendency for resources to crowd out private production while still increasing consumption and welfare. We establish this relation without assuming increasing returns to scale in the productive private sector, as is common in the literature. We also propose a novel resource curse to leisure time. Just as resources ‘should’ increase income – their failure to do so establishing the traditional curse – they should also allow more leisure. Recent cross-country data suggest the opposite is true. We offer initial steps toward explaining the discrepancy: resources can turn from blessing to curse on both leisure and income under flawed institutions, particularly when policymakers favor employment over leisure. Direct (re)distribution of resource wealth rather than expanded government employment presents a policy solution.

大量文献证实了资源诅咒，即自然资源越丰富的社会，其经济结果越糟糕的矛盾趋势。我们的正式模型从几个方面扩展了资源诅咒的文献。首先，在增加消费和福利的同时，可能存在一种资源排挤私人生产的普遍趋势。我们在建立这种关系时，并没有像文献中常见的那样，假设生产性私营部门的规模回报率不断提高。我们还对闲暇时间提出了一种新的资源诅咒。正如资源 "应该 "增加收入--未能做到这一点就形成了传统的诅咒--资源也应该允许更多的闲暇。最近的跨国数据表明事实恰恰相反。我们初步解释了这种差异：在制度缺陷的情况下，尤其是当政策制定者倾向于就业而非休闲时，资源对休闲和收入都可能由福变祸。直接（重新）分配资源财富而不是扩大政府就业是一种政策解决方案。

引用次数: 0

A place in the sun: Farmers' co-benefits from solar irrigation in Bangladesh 阳光下的一席之地：孟加拉国农民从太阳能灌溉中获得的共同利益

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107973

Marie-Charlotte Buisson , Archisman Mitra , Thierry Hounsa , Md. Ahasan Habib , Aditi Mukherji

Solar irrigation pumps (SIPs) are gradually replacing diesel pumps in relatively water-intensive agricultural production systems and geographies to reduce carbon emissions from food systems. However, beyond its climate change mitigation potential and fulfillment of Nationally Determined Contributions commitments, the adoption of solar irrigation also has direct co-benefits for farmers. Taking the case of Bangladesh and anchored on primary data collected among solar and diesel pump users, this article analyses the role access to solar irrigation has on household and farm-level outcomes. The propensity score matching and inverse probability matching approaches identify a positive effect of SIP access on food security and profitability from dry-season paddy for adopters. Different transmission channels are explored to explain these co-benefits. Lower costs of irrigation and labor are identified as the strongest pathways. This analysis strengthens the case for investments toward the solarization of agriculture in developing countries where it delivers significant development co-benefits in addition to climate change mitigation benefits. The valuation of the farmers' co-benefits, along with global climate mitigation impacts, also highlights the potential role of such programs toward climate justice.

在相对耗水的农业生产系统和地区，太阳能灌溉泵（SIPs）正逐步取代柴油泵，以减少粮食系统的碳排放。然而，除了其减缓气候变化的潜力和履行国家确定的贡献承诺之外，采用太阳能灌溉还能为农民带来直接的共同利益。本文以孟加拉国为例，根据收集到的太阳能泵和柴油泵用户的原始数据，分析了获得太阳能灌溉对家庭和农场层面结果的影响。通过倾向得分匹配法和反向概率匹配法发现，使用太阳能灌溉系统对采用者的粮食安全和旱季水稻收益率有积极影响。为解释这些共同效益，探讨了不同的传播渠道。降低灌溉和劳动力成本被认为是最有效的途径。这项分析加强了在发展中国家投资农业太阳能化的理由，因为农业太阳能化除了能带来减缓气候变化的效益外，还能带来显著的共同发展效益。对农民的共同利益以及全球气候减缓影响的评估，也凸显了此类项目在实现气候公正方面的潜在作用。

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引用次数: 0

Energy transition affordability in China: Disparities and determinants 中国能源转型的可负担性：差距与决定因素

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107972

Chao An, Peng Zhou

This paper develops a parametric global-clustering metafrontier approach integrating input-output information to evaluate energy transition decarbonization costs. We then propose a novel and intuitive index for measuring energy transition affordability (ETA) that couples energy transition decarbonization costs with economic development level. Spatial Gini coefficient decomposition and spatial Markov chain are used to investigate the spatiotemporal disparities and long-term trend of ETA. Furthermore, we design a combined lasso, geographically and temporally weighted regression framework to identify the key determinants of ETA and capture their spatiotemporal heterogeneous effects. We apply the methodology to study the disparaities and determinants of energy transition affordability across 283 cities in China. The results indicate a favorable increasing trend, but a significant inequality of ETA across urban groups. Unique impacts of key determinants on ETA are observed for each city and each year. Our findings underscore the necessity of targeted policies and strategies towards more equitable energy transition in developing countries.

本文开发了一种整合投入产出信息的参数化全球聚类元前沿方法，用于评估能源转型的去碳化成本。然后，我们提出了一种新颖直观的能源转型可负担性（ETA）衡量指标，将能源转型去碳化成本与经济发展水平结合起来。我们利用空间基尼系数分解和空间马尔可夫链研究了 ETA 的时空差异和长期趋势。此外，我们还设计了一个综合套索、地理和时间加权回归框架，以识别 ETA 的关键决定因素，并捕捉其时空异质性效应。我们运用该方法研究了中国 283 个城市能源转型可负担性的差异和决定因素。结果表明，ETA 在城市群体中呈上升趋势，但存在显著的不平等。在每个城市和每个年份，都可以观察到关键决定因素对 ETA 的独特影响。我们的研究结果表明，发展中国家有必要制定有针对性的政策和战略，以实现更加公平的能源转型。

引用次数: 0

Corporate green innovation under environmental regulation: The role of ESG ratings and greenwashing 环境监管下的企业绿色创新：环境、社会和公司治理评级与 "洗绿 "的作用

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107971

Dan Peng , Qunxi Kong

China's economic trajectory has transitioned from prioritizing rapid growth to emphasizing quality, efficiency, and sustainability. In this context, balancing environmental protection with the promotion of a green economy has become increasingly significant. This study investigates the relationship between environmental regulation and green innovation in Chinese enterprises using data from listed companies spanning 2007 to 2019. The results indicate that environmental regulations positively influence green innovation among firms, a finding validated by robustness checks, including instrumental variable methods. Furthermore, the study identifies corporate greenwashing behaviors and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance as mediating factors. Firms resort to greenwashing strategies to mitigate regulatory pressures while simultaneously fulfilling their ESG responsibilities, thus contributing to green innovation. Additionally, the study reveals that the impact of environmental regulations on green innovation is heterogeneous, varying according to the external economic environment, firm ownership, and industry characteristics. The positive effect is more pronounced under lower levels of government intervention, in private enterprises, and among energy and new energy sectors. These findings underscore the nuanced dynamics between regulatory frameworks and corporate innovation in China.

中国的经济发展轨迹已从优先考虑快速增长过渡到强调质量、效率和可持续性。在此背景下，平衡环境保护与促进绿色经济的关系变得越来越重要。本研究利用 2007 年至 2019 年的上市公司数据，研究了中国企业环境规制与绿色创新之间的关系。结果表明，环境规制对企业的绿色创新有积极影响，这一结论通过稳健性检验（包括工具变量方法）得到了验证。此外，研究还将企业的 "洗绿 "行为和环境、社会和治理（ESG）绩效视为中介因素。企业采用 "褪绿 "策略以减轻监管压力，同时履行其环境、社会和治理责任，从而促进绿色创新。此外，研究还发现，环境法规对绿色创新的影响是多方面的，因外部经济环境、企业所有权和行业特征而异。在政府干预程度较低、私营企业以及能源和新能源行业中，积极影响更为明显。这些发现强调了中国监管框架与企业创新之间微妙的动态关系。

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引用次数: 0

Cross-border competition in the gasoline retail market: Impact of proximity at the German-Polish border 汽油零售市场的跨境竞争：德国-波兰边境邻近地区的影响

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107961

Mats Petter Kahl

In this article, I analyze how persistently lower gasoline prices in Poland affect the prices set in the German border region. Based on a complete dataset of German gasoline prices and an assessment of driving distances between gasoline stations, I estimate the impact of one additional kilometer of distance to the nearest Polish competitor on the price charged by German gasoline stations. Following the fixed effects filtered estimator approach proposed by Pesaran and Zhou (2018) and controlling for various station characteristics, I find no evidence that German gasoline stations enter price competition with their Polish counterparts. My descriptive analysis of gasoline station infrastructure in the German border region reveals increasingly sparse gasoline station density when approaching the Polish border, along with an increasing share of premium brands. These results may reflect the effect of substantially lower taxes in Poland, discouraging German gasoline stations from locating near the border and effectively ruling out cross-border price competition. Although indirect, my findings suggest the presence of fuel tourism.

在本文中，我分析了波兰持续走低的汽油价格如何影响德国边境地区的汽油价格。基于德国汽油价格的完整数据集和对加油站之间行车距离的评估，我估算了距离最近的波兰竞争者多一公里对德国加油站收费价格的影响。按照 Pesaran 和 Zhou（2018 年）提出的固定效应滤波估计方法，并控制各种加油站特征，我发现没有证据表明德国加油站与波兰同行展开了价格竞争。我对德国边境地区加油站基础设施的描述性分析表明，当接近波兰边境时，加油站密度越来越稀疏，同时高端品牌所占份额越来越大。这些结果可能反映了波兰大幅降低税收的影响，阻碍了德国加油站在边境附近设点，并有效地排除了跨境价格竞争。尽管是间接的，但我的研究结果表明燃料旅游的存在。

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引用次数: 0

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