Energy Economics最新文献_第3页

Electric vehicles to the grid: Costs, benefits, and pricing mechanisms 电动汽车并网：成本、收益和定价机制

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109200

Xuhao Zhan , Bowei Guo

Decarbonizing the transportation sector is essential for meeting global climate targets. However, transportation electrification imposes substantial costs on power systems. This study develops a novel data-driven approach that leverages comprehensive grid measurement data to quantify these costs, referred to here as social costs. The results indicate that advancements in power transfer technologies, particularly vehicle-to-grid (V2G) integration, can substantially reduce social costs and, in some cases, generate net social benefits. When the proposed method is applied to two regions in China with contrasting power system characteristics, V2G leads to significant reductions in social costs in both low (Guangdong) and high (Gansu) renewable penetration regions. The reduction is greater in Gansu, primarily driven by a stronger decline in capacity investment costs, reflecting the greater reliance of high-renewable power systems on dispatchable capacity. Based on the estimated social costs, we propose a pricing mechanism to enable economically efficient V2G integration, demonstrating the first-best market-based mechanism and the second-best direct-pricing mechanism.

交通运输部门的脱碳对于实现全球气候目标至关重要。然而，运输电气化给电力系统带来了巨大的成本。本研究开发了一种新颖的数据驱动方法，利用全面的网格测量数据来量化这些成本，这里称为社会成本。结果表明，电力传输技术的进步，特别是车辆到电网（V2G）集成，可以大幅降低社会成本，在某些情况下，还可以产生净社会效益。当所提出的方法应用于中国两个具有不同电力系统特征的地区时，V2G在可再生能源普及率低（广东）和高（甘肃）的地区都显著降低了社会成本。甘肃的降幅更大，主要是由于产能投资成本下降幅度更大，反映出高可再生能源发电系统对可调度产能的依赖程度更高。基于估算的社会成本，我们提出了一种能够实现经济高效的V2G整合的定价机制，展示了第一种最佳的市场机制和第二种最佳的直接定价机制。

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引用次数: 0

Large scale renewable energy deployment reduces regional economic inequality:Evidence from China 大规模可再生能源部署减少区域经济不平等：来自中国的证据

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109168

Qiang Tu , Limei Zuo , Jianlei Mo , Yaming Ma , Ye Yao , Qi Su

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) proposed in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development includes ensuring access to sustainable modern energy, as well as reducing inequality within countries. These goals may interact with each other, but research examining the impact of renewable energy deployment on economic inequality remains limited. To fill this gap, we estimate a city-level Dagum Gini coefficient from county-level nighttime lights to measure regional economic inequality, providing a production-side proxy with fine spatial resolution. And the difference-in-difference (DID) model is utilized in this study to identify the impact of renewable energy deployment on regional economic inequality, using a unique full sample dataset of China's renewable energy projects from 2001 to 2020. The empirical results indicate that the renewable energy deployment reduces regional economic inequality. Specifically, for every 1 GW of biomass and solar PV deployed in a city, the Gini coefficient is reduced by approximately 0.038–0.064 and 0.018–0.020, respectively, while wind energy deployment seems to have minimal impact on regional economic inequality. This study further confirms that the promotion of rural employment and the upgrading of the industrial structure are key mechanisms through which renewable energy deployment contributes to reducing regional economic inequality. Furthermore, increased investment in education and improved transport infrastructure would enhance the effect of renewable energy deployment on reducing regional economic inequality. Consequently, this research offers valuable insights for the strategic deployment of renewable energy not only in China and other developing countries but also for policy makers endeavoring to create policy synergies aligned with the SDGs.

《2030年可持续发展议程》提出的17项可持续发展目标包括确保获得可持续的现代能源，以及减少国家内部的不平等。这些目标可能相互影响，但研究可再生能源部署对经济不平等的影响仍然有限。为了填补这一空白，我们从县级夜间灯光中估计城市一级的达格姆基尼系数来衡量区域经济不平等，提供了一个具有精细空间分辨率的生产侧代理。利用2001 - 2020年中国可再生能源项目的全样本数据集，利用差分中差（DID）模型分析了可再生能源部署对区域经济不平等的影响。实证结果表明，可再生能源部署降低了区域经济不平等。具体来说，一个城市每部署1吉瓦的生物质能和太阳能光伏，基尼系数分别减少约0.038-0.064和0.018-0.020，而风能部署似乎对区域经济不平等的影响最小。本研究进一步证实了促进农村就业和产业结构升级是可再生能源部署有助于减少区域经济不平等的关键机制。此外，增加教育投资和改善交通基础设施将增强可再生能源部署对减少区域经济不平等的影响。因此，这项研究不仅为中国和其他发展中国家的可再生能源战略部署提供了宝贵的见解，也为政策制定者努力创造与可持续发展目标相一致的政策协同效应提供了宝贵的见解。

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引用次数: 0

The predictive content of U.S. Energy Information Administration oil market forecasts 美国能源情报署石油市场预测的预测内容

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109214

Anthony Garratt , Ivan Petrella , Yunyi Zhang

This paper investigates the information content of oil market forecasts produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). We evaluate the maximum informative forecast horizons for EIA projections of world and U.S. oil demand, supply, inventories, and prices. Our results show that U.S. forecasts are systematically more informative than their global counterparts, with content horizons extending up to six quarters for most U.S. variables. The information content embedded in EIA forecasts reflects both the agency’s ability to track evolving market conditions and, particularly at short horizons, the incorporation of information that goes beyond simple trend extrapolation.

本文研究了美国能源情报署（EIA）石油市场预测的信息含量。我们评估了EIA对世界和美国石油需求、供应、库存和价格预测的最大信息量预测范围。我们的研究结果表明，美国的预测系统上比全球同行更具信息性，对于大多数美国变量，其内容范围可延长至六个季度。环境影响评估预测中包含的信息内容既反映了该机构跟踪不断变化的市场状况的能力，也反映了在短期内纳入超越简单趋势推断的信息的能力。

引用次数: 0

Monetary policy and energy installation: Implications for the European green transition 货币政策与能源装置：对欧洲绿色转型的启示

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109159

Alexandra Serebriakova (Sasha) , Friedemann Polzin , Mark Sanders

Policymakers have raised concerns that the required transition to renewable energy sources in the European Union could be stalled by a period of higher ECB policy rates meant to combat inflation. Prior research shows heterogeneous effects of policy rates on sectors with varying industrial characteristics, meaning that renewable technologies may be hit disproportionately by monetary contractions due to their investment requirements, life-cycle stage, and/or dependence on external finance. This paper uses fixed effects panel analysis of 28 European countries to look at the interactions between installed capacity of 10 utility-scale energy technologies, their characteristics, and monetary policy. Over the period of 2001–2024, fossil fuel, hydropower and nuclear technologies remained unaffected by monetary contractions, while a 25 basis point rise in policy rates was associated with a 3.2% decrease in total installed capacity for onshore wind, and a 5.3% decrease for solar PV. Significant interaction effects, using measures of investment intensity and external finance dependence for energy technologies, yield evidence in favour of the interest rate and balance sheet channels of monetary policy transmission. To address endogeneity concerns, we use a two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach in an LCOE specification for the interest rate channel in the energy sector, which confirms these findings. Our results suggest the existence of an unintended bias in contractionary monetary operations; central banks should consider flanking policies (such as preferred interest rates) to offset the disadvantage for renewables.

政策制定者担心，欧盟向可再生能源的必要转型，可能会因欧洲央行一段时间内旨在对抗通胀的政策利率上升而停滞。先前的研究表明，政策利率对具有不同产业特征的部门的影响是异质的，这意味着可再生能源技术由于其投资要求、生命周期阶段和/或对外部融资的依赖，可能会受到不成比例的货币紧缩的打击。本文采用固定效应面板分析方法，对28个欧洲国家的10种公用事业规模能源技术的装机容量、特点和货币政策之间的相互作用进行了研究。在2001年至2024年期间，化石燃料、水电和核技术没有受到货币紧缩的影响，而政策利率每上升25个基点，陆上风电总装机容量就会下降3.2%，太阳能光伏发电装机容量下降5.3%。通过衡量能源技术的投资强度和外部融资依赖程度，显著的相互作用效应产生了有利于货币政策传导的利率和资产负债表渠道的证据。为了解决内生性问题，我们在能源部门利率渠道的LCOE规范中使用了两阶段最小二乘（2SLS）方法，证实了这些发现。我们的研究结果表明，在紧缩性货币操作中存在一种意想不到的偏差；各国央行应考虑采取配套政策（如优惠利率），以抵消可再生能源的劣势。

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引用次数: 0

Sovereign green bonds: Risk-mitigating sustainability instruments in emerging markets 主权绿色债券：新兴市场降低风险的可持续性工具

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109173

Vedanshi Nevatia

Sovereign green bonds have emerged as a prominent policy instrument to mobilize climate finance, yet evidence on their pricing implications, especially across development levels and relative to unlabeled sustainability bonds, remains limited. This study provides the first global, bond-level analysis of sovereign green and sustainability bond pricing in secondary markets across advanced and emerging economies. Using Bloomberg data on 168 sovereign sustainability bonds issued between 2017 and 2023 across 44 countries, the analysis employs coarsened exact matching to estimate the greenium for green-labeled as well as unlabeled bonds. The results reveal strong regional heterogeneity. In advanced economies, sovereign green bonds trade at a positive yield premium of 20–40 basis points. In contrast, EMDEs exhibit a significant sovereign greenium of approximately 10 basis points for green-labeled bonds, alongside a positive premium for unlabeled sustainability bonds. This suggests that green labeling is associated with lowered perceived risk and informational asymmetry. This is especially true for riskier countries, speculative-grade bonds, and during periods of financial volatility. Overall, the results highlight that while sovereign green bonds may act as effective risk-mitigating instruments for climate finance in emerging economies, institutional heterogeneity and market structures have a role to play in shaping sustainability bond issuances.

主权绿色债券已成为动员气候融资的重要政策工具，但有关其定价影响的证据仍然有限，特别是在各个发展水平之间以及相对于未标记的可持续性债券而言。本研究首次对发达经济体和新兴经济体二级市场的主权绿色和可持续性债券定价进行了全球债券层面的分析。该分析利用彭博社2017年至2023年在44个国家发行的168只主权可持续债券的数据，采用粗略的精确匹配方法来估算绿色标签债券和未标签债券的绿色含量。结果显示出较强的区域异质性。在发达经济体，主权绿色债券的收益率溢价为20-40个基点。相比之下，emde对绿色标签债券的主权溢价约为10个基点，而对未标记的可持续性债券的主权溢价为正。这表明绿色标签与较低的感知风险和信息不对称有关。对于风险较高的国家、投机级债券和金融动荡时期尤其如此。总体而言，研究结果强调，虽然主权绿色债券可以作为新兴经济体气候融资的有效风险缓解工具，但制度异质性和市场结构在塑造可持续债券发行方面也有作用。

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引用次数: 0

Energy Poverty has a justice dimension: Comparing Bolivia, Côte d’Ivoire and France 能源贫困有一个公正的维度：比较玻利维亚、Côte科特迪瓦和法国

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109209

Anna Creti , Alpha Ly , Maria-Eugenia Sanin

Energy poverty is a multidimensional issue, as demonstrated by a comparison between two low-income countries, Bolivia (BOL) and Côte d’Ivoire (CIV), and a high-income European country, France (FRA). These three countries represent different stages of access and energy poverty. CIV lags behind BOL and FRA in electricity access but still contends with energy poverty. However, both BOL and CIV face significant energy affordability issues, leading to widespread energy poverty. Moreover, BOL and CIV have very low access to clean cooking, while BOL has achieved universal access to electricity, similar to FRA. This study examines the socio-economic determinants of access to energy infrastructure, energy services, and energy poverty. It finds that as the share of households with access to energy and services increases, the likelihood of an energy poverty trap also rises. The energy-poverty gap, which is the total cash transfer needed to address energy poverty, is higher in BOL and FRA compared to CIV due to higher average energy expenditures and a larger number of energy-poor households. Using clustering techniques, our study identifies the socio-demographic profiles of the most vulnerable households. Targeting these groups is shown to be more effective in bridging the energy poverty gap. Our findings highlight the importance of considering affordability in efforts to ensure universal energy access, to prevent further exclusion, and promote energy justice.

能源贫困是一个多维问题，两个低收入国家玻利维亚（BOL）和Côte科特迪瓦（CIV）与一个高收入欧洲国家法国（FRA）之间的比较证明了这一点。这三个国家代表了能源获取和能源贫困的不同阶段。CIV在电力获取方面落后于BOL和FRA，但仍在与能源贫困作斗争。然而，BOL和CIV都面临着重大的能源负担能力问题，导致广泛的能源贫困。此外，BOL和CIV获得清洁烹饪的机会非常低，而BOL实现了普遍获得电力，类似于FRA。本研究考察了获得能源基础设施、能源服务和能源贫困的社会经济决定因素。报告发现，随着获得能源和服务的家庭比例的增加，陷入能源贫困陷阱的可能性也在增加。能源贫困差距，即解决能源贫困所需的总现金转移，在BOL和FRA中比在CIV中更高，因为平均能源支出更高，能源贫困家庭数量更多。利用聚类技术，我们的研究确定了最脆弱家庭的社会人口概况。以这些群体为目标，证明在弥合能源贫困差距方面更为有效。我们的研究结果强调了在确保普遍获得能源、防止进一步排斥和促进能源正义的努力中考虑可负担性的重要性。

{"title":"Energy Poverty has a justice dimension: Comparing Bolivia, Côte d’Ivoire and France","authors":"Anna Creti , Alpha Ly , Maria-Eugenia Sanin","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109209","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109209","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy poverty is a multidimensional issue, as demonstrated by a comparison between two low-income countries, Bolivia (BOL) and Côte d’Ivoire (CIV), and a high-income European country, France (FRA). These three countries represent different stages of access and energy poverty. CIV lags behind BOL and FRA in electricity access but still contends with energy poverty. However, both BOL and CIV face significant energy affordability issues, leading to widespread energy poverty. Moreover, BOL and CIV have very low access to clean cooking, while BOL has achieved universal access to electricity, similar to FRA. This study examines the socio-economic determinants of access to energy infrastructure, energy services, and energy poverty. It finds that as the share of households with access to energy and services increases, the likelihood of an energy poverty trap also rises. The energy-poverty gap, which is the total cash transfer needed to address energy poverty, is higher in BOL and FRA compared to CIV due to higher average energy expenditures and a larger number of energy-poor households. Using clustering techniques, our study identifies the socio-demographic profiles of the most vulnerable households. Targeting these groups is shown to be more effective in bridging the energy poverty gap. Our findings highlight the importance of considering affordability in efforts to ensure universal energy access, to prevent further exclusion, and promote energy justice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 109209"},"PeriodicalIF":14.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147278524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Cross-border cannibalization: Spillover effects of wind and solar energy on interconnected European electricity markets” [Energy Economics, 143, March 2025, 108251] “跨境蚕食：风能和太阳能对互联欧洲电力市场的溢出效应”的勘误表[能源经济，143,March 2025, 108251]

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109167

Clemens Stiewe , Alice Lixuan Xu , Anselm Eicke , Lion Hirth

引用次数: 0

Score-driven global climate zones from 1940 to 2024: A new objective climate classification method 1940 - 2024年评分驱动的全球气候带：一种新的客观气候分类方法

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109203

Szabolcs Blazsek , Álvaro Escribano , Erzsébet Kristóf

We employ a novel score-driven climate clustering model to analyze global climate change from January 1940 to December 2024. This model dynamically reclassifies global geographic locations using climate variables from ERA5, which is the fifth-generation reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The dataset includes monthly data from 930 uniformly distributed locations worldwide, covering eight variables: air temperature at 2 m, dew point temperature at 2 m, mean sea level pressure, eastward component of the 10-meter wind, northward component of the 10-meter wind, 10-meter wind gust, total precipitation, and downward short-wave solar radiation flux at the Earth’s surface. Our climate clustering model is a multivariate, score-driven, multi-regime-switching framework that analyzes the conditional mean and covariance matrix of these climate variables. It specifies a dynamic transition probability matrix for the different climate regimes, effectively representing climate clusters. We estimate the transition, filtered, and predictive probabilities for each climate regime. We focus on five distinct climate clusters. We present the evolution of the predictive probabilities for these clusters across various geographic locations experiencing observable climate change. Additionally, we explore alternative data and model specifications, guided by the feasibility of statistical estimation. Our findings include an annual analysis of 110 uniformly distributed locations worldwide for two variables: air and dew point temperatures at 2 m. The results indicate several geographic locations in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres that transition to higher temperature clusters throughout the sample period.

我们采用了一种新的分数驱动的气候聚类模型来分析1940年1月至2024年12月的全球气候变化。该模式使用ERA5的气候变量动态地重新分类全球地理位置，ERA5是欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的第五代再分析。该数据集包括全球930个均匀分布地点的月度数据，包括8个变量：2米气温、2米露点温度、平均海平面压力、10米风向东分量、10米风向北分量、10米风、总降水量和地球表面向下的短波太阳辐射通量。我们的气候聚类模型是一个多变量、分数驱动、多状态切换的框架，分析这些气候变量的条件均值和协方差矩阵。它为不同的气候状况指定了一个动态的过渡概率矩阵，有效地表示了气候集群。我们估计了每种气候状态的过渡、过滤和预测概率。我们关注五个不同的气候集群。我们提出了这些集群在不同地理位置经历可观测气候变化的预测概率的演变。此外，在统计估计可行性的指导下，我们探索了替代数据和模型规范。我们的发现包括对全球110个均匀分布地点的两个变量的年度分析：2米的空气和露点温度。结果表明，在整个采样期内，北半球和南半球的几个地理位置都过渡到较高的温度集群。

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引用次数: 0

Demand response control structure in imperfectly competitive power markets: Independent or integrated? 不完全竞争电力市场的需求响应控制结构：独立还是整合？

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109195

Julien Ancel

This article investigates different types of actors controlling demand response (DR) operations under Cournot competition. Analytical results linking shiftable load level, market equilibrium, and welfare are obtained for DR operated either by an independent aggregator (price-taker or price-maker), by end-consumers’ suppliers, or within the portfolio of generators. An application to a 2035 French power system with detailed flexible appliances constraints is also proposed. Results show that supplier-integrated DR yields the greatest price reductions and lowest shiftable load withholding, while DR integrated with baseload producers has the weakest effects on prices and may worsen welfare losses compared to a perfectly competitive market. While DR deployment consistently improves welfare and lowers prices, the extent depends on the control structure. Independent aggregation and supplier integration deliver similar welfare gains but shift surplus toward consumers, whereas integration within generators results in up to a 6€/MWh higher producer surplus compared to the other structures. Policy implications highlight the importance of DR deployment overall but caution against DR integration exclusively within baseload generators’ portfolios due to limited market benefits.

本文研究了在古诺竞争下控制需求响应（DR）操作的不同类型的参与者。对于由独立的聚合者（价格接受者或价格制定者）、最终消费者的供应商或发电机组合操作的DR，获得了将可移动负荷水平、市场均衡和福利联系起来的分析结果。并提出了一个具有详细柔性设备约束的2035年法国电力系统的应用。结果表明，与完全竞争市场相比，供应商集成的DR产生了最大的价格下降和最低的可转移负荷保留，而与基本负荷生产商集成的DR对价格的影响最弱，并且可能加剧福利损失。虽然DR的部署持续改善了福利并降低了价格，但其程度取决于控制结构。独立聚合和供应商整合提供了类似的福利收益，但将剩余转移给了消费者，而与其他结构相比，发电机内部的整合导致高达6欧元/兆瓦时的生产者剩余。政策影响强调了DR部署的重要性，但由于市场效益有限，对DR集成仅限于基载发电企业的投资组合持谨慎态度。

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引用次数: 0

Analysis of short-run and long-run marginal costs of electricity generation in the power market 电力市场中发电的短期和长期边际成本分析

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109169

Shamim Homaei , Simon Roussanaly , Asgeir Tomasgard

This paper examines the roles of long-run and short-run marginal costs (LRMC and SRMC) in shaping electricity prices and ensuring investment cost recovery, particularly when generation capacity is used across multiple long-term periods. Using a stylized capacity expansion model with two generators and two periods, we developed a five-step methodology to characterize all possible LRMC pricing profiles and prove cost recovery under each case. We showed how shared capacity affects intertemporal cost allocation, revealing that even when cheaper technologies are marginal, more expensive shared capacity can still recover its cost through distribution across periods. On the SRMC side, we identified a form of degeneracy caused by fixed invested capacities, leading to multiple valid marginal prices. To resolve price degeneracy, we add a small demand elasticity centered on the LRMC reference point. This yields a unique SRMC price that coincides with LRMC and guarantees cost recovery under energy-only pricing. Extensions to the model, such as increasing temporal resolution, adding storage, or including more generators, demonstrated the robustness of our findings.

本文考察了长期和短期边际成本（LRMC和SRMC）在塑造电价和确保投资成本回收方面的作用，特别是当发电能力在多个长期期间使用时。我们使用带有两个发电机和两个周期的程式化容量扩展模型，开发了一个五步方法来描述所有可能的LRMC定价概况，并证明每种情况下的成本回收。我们展示了共享容量如何影响跨期成本分配，揭示了即使当更便宜的技术处于边际时，更昂贵的共享容量仍然可以通过跨期分配收回其成本。在SRMC方面，我们发现了一种由固定投资能力引起的退化形式，导致多重有效边际价格。为了解决价格退化问题，我们增加了一个以LRMC参考点为中心的小需求弹性。这就产生了一个独特的SRMC价格，它与LRMC价格一致，并保证了在纯能源定价下的成本回收。对模型的扩展，如增加时间分辨率、增加存储或包括更多的生成器，证明了我们的发现的健壮性。

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引用次数: 0