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Impact of differentiated carbon taxes on remanufacturing mode selection 差异化碳税对再制造模式选择的影响

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107955

In current remanufacturing supply chains, whether the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) independently engages in remanufacturing or delegating (authorizing or outsourcing) to a third-party remanufacturer (TPR) is influenced by the government's differentiated carbon tax. However, our understanding of the factors influencing the optimal choice among the three remanufacturing strategies (i.e., self-remanufacturing, authorizing remanufacturing, and outsourcing remanufacturing) is fairly limited. In particular, little attention has been paid to differentiated carbon taxes, which involve the government imposing a high carbon tax on new products and a low carbon tax on remanufactured products. To fill these gaps, this study develops game models that include an OEM and a TPR. Our analysis reveals four main findings. First, with the increase in carbon tax on new products, the price of both new and remanufactured products rises. By contrast, once the carbon tax on remanufactured products increases, only the price of remanufactured products rises. Second, when the carbon tax gap between new and remanufactured products is small and the ratio of environmental impact per unit of remanufactured products to that of new products is less than consumer preference, both outsourcing remanufacturing and self-remanufacturing could achieve a win-win situation in reducing environmental impact and enhancing consumer surplus. Third, regardless of the governments' setting of the differentiated carbon tax, the OEM, as a profit-seeker, will decline the authorizing remanufacturing to expand profits in any case. Further, when the carbon tax gap between new and remanufactured products is less than a certain threshold, the optimal mode for the OEM is outsourcing remanufacturing, followed by self-remanufacturing. Fourth, our numerical analysis indicates that the carbon tax gap between new and remanufactured products plays a vital role in optimal remanufacturing strategy selection. Notably, both the recycling scale of wasted products and consumer preferences for remanufactured products should be taken into account when making an optimal remanufacturing selection.

在当前的再制造供应链中，原始设备制造商（OEM）是独立从事再制造，还是委托（授权或外包）给第三方再制造商（TPR），受到政府差别化碳税的影响。然而，我们对三种再制造策略（即自我再制造、授权再制造和外包再制造）之间最优选择的影响因素的了解还相当有限。特别是，人们很少关注差别碳税，即政府对新产品征收高碳税，对再制造产品征收低碳税。为了填补这些空白，本研究建立了包含原始设备制造商和再制造产品制造商的博弈模型。我们的分析揭示了四个主要结论。首先，随着新产品碳税的增加，新产品和再制造产品的价格都会上涨。相比之下，一旦再制造产品的碳税增加，只有再制造产品的价格上涨。其次，当新产品和再制造产品的碳税差距较小，且再制造产品单位环境影响与新产品单位环境影响之比小于消费者偏好时，外包再制造和自主再制造都能实现降低环境影响和提高消费者剩余的双赢。第三，无论政府如何设置差别碳税，作为逐利者的整车厂无论如何都会拒绝授权再制造以扩大利润。此外，当新产品和再制造产品之间的碳税差距小于一定临界值时，整车厂的最优模式是外包再制造，其次是自我再制造。第四，我们的数值分析表明，新产品和再制造产品之间的碳税差距在最优再制造战略选择中起着至关重要的作用。值得注意的是，在做出最佳再制造选择时，应同时考虑废弃产品的回收规模和消费者对再制造产品的偏好。

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引用次数: 0

Price discovery redux—Analyzing energy spot and futures prices using a dynamic programming approach 价格发现再现--利用动态编程方法分析能源现货和期货价格

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107965

We employ dynamic time warping (DTW), a non-parametric pattern recognition technique based on a dynamic programming algorithm, to analyze whether futures markets for crude oil and natural gas have facilitated price discovery over the last decade. Should futures prices absorb and reflect information before spot prices, they will move first and lead spot prices, suggesting that they dominate spot prices and play an important role in price discovery. The results show that natural gas futures prices led spot prices more frequently between 2019 and 2023 than during the five years preceding this turbulent period. In the case of crude oil, however, futures prices lagged spot prices more often than leading them. The evidence suggests that futures prices have not consistently fulfilled their price discovery role in the two energy markets. The results also indicate that short-term futures contracts play a more dominant role in price discovery than long-term contracts. Additionally, we demonstrate the advantages of DTW: it lends itself well to analyzing small samples with different orders of integration; it can discover linear and nonlinear relationships between time series; notably, it can detect period-to-period changes in the duration and direction of lead-lag associations between two series and present the results intelligibly.

我们采用动态时间扭曲（DTW）--一种基于动态编程算法的非参数模式识别技术--来分析原油和天然气期货市场在过去十年中是否促进了价格发现。如果期货价格先于现货价格吸收和反映信息，那么期货价格将先于现货价格变动并领先于现货价格，这表明期货价格主导现货价格并在价格发现中发挥重要作用。结果显示，2019 年至 2023 年期间，天然气期货价格领先现货价格的频率高于这一动荡时期之前的五年。然而，就原油而言，期货价格滞后于现货价格的频率高于领先于现货价格的频率。这些证据表明，期货价格在这两个能源市场中并没有始终如一地发挥其价格发现作用。结果还表明，短期期货合约比长期合约在价格发现方面发挥着更主要的作用。此外，我们还展示了 DTW 的优势：它非常适合分析具有不同积分阶数的小样本；它可以发现时间序列之间的线性和非线性关系；值得注意的是，它可以检测两个序列之间前导-滞后关联的持续时间和方向的周期性变化，并将结果清晰地呈现出来。

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引用次数: 0

Natural resource assets management and urban carbon emission efficiency: Evidence from quasi-natural experiment in China 自然资源资产管理与城市碳排放效率：来自中国准自然实验的证据

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107963

Efficient management of natural resources plays an important role in improving urban low-carbon development. Based on panel data from 277 prefecture-level cities in China, this paper investigates the impact of the “Natural Resource Assets Management Audit” (NRAMA) policy on urban carbon emission efficiency (CEE) using the staggered DID approach. Our findings reveal that the NRAMA policy significantly improves urban CEE and shows heterogeneity from the perspective of regional features, city size, resource dependency, government intervention, and marketization level. The mechanism test results suggest that the pilot policy affects urban CEE through efficient natural resource utilization, better environmental protection, government audit, fiscal expenditures, and urban green innovation. Additionally, population density plays a significant moderating role. Our study supplements new evidence on the relationship between natural resource assets management and efficient carbon emission reduction and provides key insights regarding the effective implementation of the NRAMA policy.

自然资源的高效管理对提高城市低碳发展水平具有重要作用。本文基于中国 277 个地级市的面板数据，采用交错 DID 方法研究了 "自然资源资产管理审计"（NRAMA）政策对城市碳排放效率（CEE）的影响。研究结果表明，"自然资源资产管理审计 "政策显著提高了城市碳排放效率，并在区域特征、城市规模、资源依赖度、政府干预和市场化水平等方面表现出异质性。机制检验结果表明，试点政策通过有效的自然资源利用、更好的环境保护、政府审计、财政支出和城市绿色创新影响城市 CEE。此外，人口密度也起着重要的调节作用。我们的研究补充了自然资源资产管理与有效碳减排之间关系的新证据，并为有效实施自然资源资产管理政策提供了重要启示。

引用次数: 0

Assessing regional energy security characteristics: Evidence from Chinese province-level data 评估区域能源安全特征：来自中国省级数据的证据

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107964

Energy security is an essential driver of economic growth and social well-being. Countries worldwide are facing threats to their energy independence stemming from climate change, geopolitical instability, and rising energy prices. Given the significance of China's economy, any threat to its energy security is likely to have a negative impact on the global economy. We assess regional energy security in China using a panel of provinces for the period 2000–2019. We rely on multiple factors likely to affect regional energy independence to define an index of energy security. The entropy weight method, Dagum Gini ratio decompositions, and kernel density estimates are subsequently used to assess the differences in energy security levels across China's regions and their evolution over time. Our results provide evidence of a gradual decline in China's overall energy security, accompanied by increasing disparities in regional energy independence over time. Notably, more than half of the total gap in energy security can be attributed to regional differences among China's eastern, central, western, and northeastern provinces. In addition to their relevance to policymakers in China, our findings provide insights into strategies other developing countries can use to promote their energy independence.

能源安全是经济增长和社会福祉的重要推动力。世界各国正面临着气候变化、地缘政治不稳定和能源价格上涨等因素对能源独立性的威胁。鉴于中国经济的重要性，任何对其能源安全的威胁都可能对全球经济产生负面影响。我们使用 2000-2019 年期间的省份面板来评估中国的区域能源安全。我们依据可能影响地区能源独立性的多种因素来定义能源安全指数。随后，我们利用熵权法、达古姆基尼系数分解和核密度估计来评估中国各地区能源安全水平的差异及其随时间的演变。研究结果表明，随着时间的推移，中国的整体能源安全水平逐渐下降，同时地区间能源独立性的差异也在不断扩大。值得注意的是，能源安全总差距的一半以上可归因于中国东部、中部、西部和东北部省份之间的地区差异。除了与中国的政策制定者相关之外，我们的研究结果还为其他发展中国家促进能源独立的战略提供了启示。

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引用次数: 0

Climate change adaptation in China: Differences in electricity consumption between rural and urban residents 中国的气候变化适应：城乡居民用电量的差异

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107958

We use high-frequency electricity consumption data (17.58 million observations) at level of household to parameterize the relationship between household electricity consumption and temperature for southern China. We find that although urban households are more sensitive to extreme temperature than rural households, with climate warming, rural households would adopt climate change adaptive behavior (e.g. installing air-conditioning), and rural households' sensitivity to temperature would increase significantly. Considering the long-run response, we find that climate warming as predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario would lead to an increase of 23.42 % and 22.28 % in the summer peak electricity consumption of rural and urban households in 2061–2080. Compared with the results of short-run response, ignoring the long-run response would lead to the summer peak electricity consumption of rural and urban households being underestimated by 56.13 % and 20.11 %. Only for our research sample, the economic losses in rural and urban areas caused by climate warming are as high as 1.358 billion Chinese yuan and 0.617 billion Chinese yuan in 2061–2080 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Climate change would bring serious losses to rural residents.

我们利用家庭层面的高频用电数据（1758 万个观测值），对中国南方家庭用电量与气温之间的关系进行了参数化。我们发现，虽然城市家庭比农村家庭对极端气温更敏感，但随着气候变暖，农村家庭会采取适应气候变化的行为（如安装空调），农村家庭对气温的敏感度会显著增加。考虑到长期响应，我们发现在 RCP8.5 情景下预测的气候变暖将导致 2061-2080 年农村和城市家庭夏季高峰用电量分别增加 23.42% 和 22.28%。与短期响应结果相比，忽略长期响应将导致农村和城市家庭夏季高峰用电量被低估 56.13 % 和 20.11 %。仅就我们的研究样本而言，在 RCP 8.5 情景下，2061-2080 年气候变暖对农村和城市造成的经济损失分别高达 13.58 亿元和 6.17 亿元。气候变化将给农村居民带来严重损失。

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引用次数: 0

Beyond volatility: Systemic resilience and risk mitigation in interconnected commodity markets 超越波动：相互关联的商品市场中的系统复原力和风险缓解

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107953

In today's interconnected commodity markets, understanding volatility spillover dynamics is crucial. This research builds on Diebold & Yilmaz (2012, 2014) to estimate System Resilience, a vital measure for investors and policymakers. By using connectedness-based estimates, a unique stability score for each system component is constructed and aggregated to estimate overall System Resilience. This concept is applied to three key commodity segments: Energy, Agriculture, and Metals. Results show that most commodities, especially bullion, maintain moderate stability, offering investment alternatives even during periods of heightened systemic risk. The study also examines rolling estimates of System Resilience to identify early warning signals through increased standard deviation in successive resilience series. Tipping points indicate critical slowdowns where recovery to a stable state is hindered. Findings suggest that apart from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), commodity portfolios remain relatively stable. The implications are significant for energy policymakers, traders, and financial investors. Early detection of warning signals supports strategic risk management. This research contributes to academic discourse and provides actionable insights, highlighting the importance of early warning indicators in enhancing financial resilience in an ever-evolving market landscape. It underscores the value of foresight in navigating global financial stability.

在当今相互关联的商品市场中，了解波动溢出动态至关重要。本研究以 Diebold & Yilmaz（2012 年，2014 年）为基础，对投资者和政策制定者的重要衡量标准--系统弹性进行估算。通过使用基于连通性的估算，为每个系统组件构建了一个独特的稳定性分数，并将其汇总以估算整体系统复原力。这一概念适用于三个关键商品领域：能源、农业和金属。结果显示，大多数商品，尤其是金银，都保持了适度的稳定性，即使在系统性风险加剧的时期，也能提供投资选择。该研究还检查了系统复原力的滚动估算值，通过连续复原力序列中标准偏差的增加来识别预警信号。临界点表示恢复到稳定状态受到阻碍的临界放缓。研究结果表明，除全球金融危机（GFC）外，大宗商品投资组合保持相对稳定。这对能源政策制定者、交易商和金融投资者来说意义重大。及早发现预警信号有助于战略风险管理。这项研究为学术讨论做出了贡献，并提供了可行的见解，强调了预警指标在不断变化的市场环境中增强金融复原力的重要性。它强调了前瞻性在驾驭全球金融稳定方面的价值。

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引用次数: 0

Connectedness between international oil and China's new energy industry chain: A time-frequency analysis based on TVP-VAR model 国际石油与中国新能源产业链的关联性：基于 TVP-VAR 模型的时频分析

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107954

With the growing prominence of global environmental concerns, the interplay between the oil and new energy industries has become increasingly vital. We employ a connectedness approach based on the TVP-VAR model to explore the dynamic connectedness in both time and frequency domains between the oil and various industries within the new energy industry chains. Empirical findings reveal total connectedness of approximately 70 %, primarily manifested as inter-industry associations within the new energy industry and total connectedness predominantly emerges in short term and is sensitive to extreme events. Additionally, the oil and wind power industries have consistently played roles as net recipients of risk. Conversely, the photovoltaic, energy storage, and new energy battery industries have consistently acted as net risk propagators. The roles of the hydroelectric, nuclear power, and new energy vehicle sectors in risk propagation vary with different frequency components. Thirdly, we identify six pairs of industry combinations exhibiting significant two-way spillover effects. Finally, after two robustness tests, the above conclusions remain valid. These research findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and investors.

随着全球环境问题的日益突出，石油和新能源产业之间的相互影响变得越来越重要。我们采用基于 TVP-VAR 模型的关联性方法，探讨了石油与新能源产业链中各行业之间在时域和频域上的动态关联性。实证结果显示，总关联度约为 70%，主要表现为新能源产业内的产业间关联，总关联度主要出现在短期内，对极端事件非常敏感。此外，石油和风电行业一直扮演着风险净接受者的角色。相反，光伏、储能和新能源电池行业一直是净风险传播者。水电、核电和新能源汽车行业在风险传播中的作用随频率成分的不同而变化。第三，我们确定了六对表现出显著双向溢出效应的产业组合。最后，经过两次稳健性检验，上述结论依然有效。这些研究成果为政策制定者和投资者提供了宝贵的启示。

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引用次数: 0

New industrial policy and corporate digital transformation: Empowering or impairing? Emerging evidence from green credit policy 新产业政策与企业数字化转型：赋能还是削弱？绿色信贷政策的新证据

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107960

The Green Credit Policy (GCP) is a vital governmental practice promoting green development through financial support. This study employs a Difference-in-Differences method to investigate the impact of GCP on the digital transformation of firms (DT) using data from Chinese A-share listed companies spanning 2007 to 2022. Results reveal that the DT is significantly inhibited after the government implements GCP. This inhibitory effect is mainly produced by reducing technological innovation, increasing environmental protection investment, and strengthening financing constraints. This study also identifies that increased government investment in digital infrastructure, increased marketization, and enhanced R&D backgrounds of executives can potentially diminish the negative impact of GCP on DT. Our findings contribute to a better response to the climate challenge and provide valuable references for accelerating DT.

绿色信贷政策（GCP）是政府通过金融支持促进绿色发展的重要实践。本研究采用差分法，利用中国 A 股上市公司 2007 年至 2022 年的数据，研究 GCP 对企业数字化转型（DT）的影响。结果表明，政府实施 GCP 后，企业数字化转型受到明显抑制。这种抑制作用主要是通过减少技术创新、增加环保投入和强化融资约束产生的。本研究还发现，增加政府在数字基础设施方面的投资、提高市场化程度以及增强高管的研发背景，都有可能降低 GCP 对 DT 的负面影响。我们的研究结果有助于更好地应对气候挑战，并为加速发展贸易提供了有价值的参考。

引用次数: 0

Mechanism of directed technological investment on energy productivity and energy structure: A unified theoretical framework 定向技术投资对能源生产率和能源结构的影响机制：统一的理论框架

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107943

The mechanisms and effects of technological investment on energy productivity and energy structure in the petrochemical industry remain unclear due to the directional nature of technological progress. This study proposes a unified theoretical framework for the impact of directed technological investment on energy productivity and energy structure by incorporating energy factors into the theory of technological progress bias. The aim is to elucidate the impact of technological progress on energy productivity and energy structure, and to unravel the underlying effect mechanisms. A fixed effects model that includes moderating effects is also developed to support the assessment. The study found that the petrochemical industry's technological investment in China was initially biased towards enhancing labour-augmenting technological progress. The mechanism analysis revealed that technological investment, under the moderating effects of price and environmental governance, preferred a capital-energy bias, leading to insignificant improvements in energy productivity but a substantial increase in labour productivity. In addition, the technological investment, influenced by the moderating effect of environmental governance, led to some improvement in the energy structure during the sample period. This study integrates the mechanisms of directed technological investment on energy productivity and energy structure into a unified analytical framework, systematically investigating the reasons, effect mechanisms, and consequences of bias, while providing empirical evidence that supports low-carbon development in the petrochemical industry.

由于技术进步的方向性，技术投资对石化行业能源生产率和能源结构的影响机制和效果仍不明确。本研究通过将能源因素纳入技术进步偏差理论，提出了定向技术投资对能源生产率和能源结构影响的统一理论框架。目的是阐明技术进步对能源生产率和能源结构的影响，并揭示其背后的影响机制。研究还建立了一个包含调节效应的固定效应模型来支持评估。研究发现，中国石化行业的技术投资最初偏向于提高劳动效率的技术进步。机理分析表明，在价格和环境治理的调节作用下，技术投资偏向于资本-能源，导致能源生产率改善不明显，但劳动生产率大幅提高。此外，在环境治理的调节效应影响下，技术投资在样本期内使能源结构得到一定改善。本研究将定向技术投资对能源生产率和能源结构的影响机制纳入统一的分析框架，系统研究了偏向的原因、影响机制和后果，同时提供了支持石化行业低碳发展的经验证据。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of energy price increases on the Polish economy 能源价格上涨对波兰经济的影响

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107944

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact on the Polish economy of energy price shocks arising after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We computed both the impact of the energy shocks (separately for gas, oil and coal prices) on the real side of the economy, and the pass-through of energy prices to the overall price level. The former part of the analysis was simulated using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Polish economy while the price effects of the shocks were simulated using a dual Leontief price model. Additionally, the price model was augmented with the mechanism of nominal wage adjustment suggested by the theory. This methodological novelty is our original contribution to empirical economics. Our simulations indicate that the price shock for all energy goods of the magnitude observed in 2022 resulted in a decrease in GDP of about 2.8% relative to the baseline solution. Moreover, we document a strong pro-inflationary effect of rising energy prices. After a combined shock to energy prices the consumption deflator increases by 10.3% (when we include the spreading the price increases across the industries), but the effect is simulated at 15.4%, when we account for an additional nominal wage adjustments (ensuring no real wage changes). We show that due to the differences in forward and backward propagation of shocks, the oil price shock had the strongest impact on real aggregates, whereas prices were hit the strongest by the gas price shock.

本文旨在评估俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后产生的能源价格冲击对波兰经济的影响。我们计算了能源冲击（分别针对天然气、石油和煤炭价格）对实体经济的影响，以及能源价格对总体价格水平的传递。前一部分分析使用波兰经济的可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型进行模拟，而冲击对价格的影响则使用双列昂蒂夫价格模型进行模拟。此外，价格模型还增加了理论所建议的名义工资调整机制。这种方法上的创新是我们对实证经济学的原创性贡献。我们的模拟结果表明，与基线方案相比，2022 年观察到的所有能源产品的价格冲击导致国内生产总值下降约 2.8%。此外，我们还记录了能源价格上涨对通胀的强烈促进作用。在能源价格受到综合冲击后，消费平减指数增加了 10.3%（如果我们将价格上涨分摊到各行业），但如果我们考虑到额外的名义工资调整（确保实际工资不变），模拟效果则为 15.4%。我们表明，由于冲击的前向传播和后向传播不同，石油价格冲击对实际总量的影响最大，而天然气价格冲击对价格的影响最大。

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引用次数: 0