Energy Economics最新文献_第4页

Discerning the impact of global geopolitical risks on China's energy futures market spillovers: Evidence from higher-order moments 辨析全球地缘政治风险对中国能源期货市场溢出效应的影响：来自高阶矩的证据

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107981

Xinya Wang , Xueyun Rong , Lei Yin

Global geopolitical risks matter to China's energy futures market. Through a three-stage research framework combining higher-order moment (third- and fourth-order moments), time-frequency spillover model, and the random forest technique, we identify the influence of global energy countries' geopolitical risks on China's energy futures spillovers under different time horizons. Our third-order moment (skewness) spillover results indicate that crude oil and fuel oil futures primarily play the role of net transmitters in the short-term time scale, while coking coal and bitumen futures are mainly net recipients. In the medium- and long- term time scales, however, thermal coal and fuel oil are stable net recipients. For the fourth-order moment (kurtosis) spillovers, the crude oil consistently acts as the transmitters across all time horizons, with a relatively significant net spillover value. Moreover, Russia's geopolitical risk has the most prominent impact on spillovers in China's energy futures market, followed by Saudi Arabia. Additionally, Russia and Saudi Arabia are more likely to impact upside and downside market spillovers, respectively. These results provide some implications for different types of investors and policy makers.

全球地缘政治风险与中国能源期货市场息息相关。通过高阶矩（三阶矩和四阶矩）、时频溢出模型和随机森林技术相结合的三阶段研究框架，我们识别了不同时间跨度下全球能源国家地缘政治风险对中国能源期货溢出的影响。我们的三阶矩（偏度）溢出结果表明，在短期时间尺度上，原油和燃料油期货主要扮演净传递者的角色，而焦煤和沥青期货则主要是净接受者。但在中长期时间尺度上，动力煤和燃料油是稳定的净接受者。在四阶矩（峰度）溢出效应方面，原油在所有时间跨度上都始终是传播者，净溢出值相对较大。此外，俄罗斯地缘政治风险对中国能源期货市场溢出效应的影响最为突出，其次是沙特阿拉伯。此外，俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯分别更有可能影响市场的上行和下行溢出效应。这些结果为不同类型的投资者和政策制定者提供了一些启示。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Incentivizing residential electricity consumers to increase demand during periods of high local solar generation” [Energy Economics, Volume 127, Part A, November 2023, 107028] 对 "激励居民电力消费者在当地太阳能发电量高的时期增加需求 "的更正[《能源经济学》，第 127 卷，A 部分，2023 年 11 月，107028]

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107997

Rudolf Kapeller , Jed J. Cohen , Andrea Kollmann , Johannes Reichl

引用次数: 0

On the regulatory and economic incentives for renewable hybrid power plants in Brazil 关于巴西可再生混合动力发电厂的监管和经济激励措施

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107989

Alexandre Street , Pedro Prescott

The complementarity between renewable generation profiles has been widely explored in the literature. Notwithstanding, complex interactions between regulatory and economic frameworks add interesting challenges and opportunities for hybrid power plant investors, regulators, and planners. Focusing on the Brazilian power market, we study the alignment of incentives between the economically-optimized strategy of hybrid power plant investors and the efficient utilization of the transmission resources. To do that, we propose a decision model that co-optimizes the risk-adjusted strategy of a hybrid power plant owner comprising (i) the forward-market involvement, (ii) the contracted amount of network access, and (iii) the share of renewable sources composing the hybrid power plant. We also propose adjusting the current regulatory framework to consider a unified calculation for the Firm Energy Certificates of non-controllable renewable power plants, including hybrid units. Based on that, we ensure a non-discriminatory regulatory framework for renewables acknowledging the diversity of generation profiles that hybrid units may have due to their optimal hybridization shares and network-access contracting strategies. A case study using realistic data from the northeastern region of the Brazilian power system showcases strong economic incentives for hybridization with reduced transmission resource utilization.

文献对可再生能源发电的互补性进行了广泛探讨。尽管如此，监管框架和经济框架之间复杂的相互作用为混合发电厂投资者、监管者和规划者带来了有趣的挑战和机遇。我们以巴西电力市场为重点，研究了混合发电厂投资者的经济优化战略与输电资源有效利用之间的激励机制协调问题。为此，我们提出了一个决策模型，该模型可共同优化混合电厂所有者的风险调整战略，其中包括：(i) 参与远期市场；(ii) 网络接入合同金额；(iii) 构成混合电厂的可再生能源份额。我们还建议调整现行监管框架，考虑统一计算包括混合机组在内的非可控可再生能源电厂的固定能源证书。在此基础上，我们确保为可再生能源制定一个非歧视性的监管框架，承认混合机组因其最佳混合比例和网络接入合同策略而可能具有的发电情况多样性。利用巴西电力系统东北部地区的真实数据进行的案例研究表明，在降低输电资源利用率的情况下，混合发电具有很强的经济激励作用。

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引用次数: 0

What drives the uranium sector risk? The role of attention, economic and geopolitical uncertainty 是什么驱动了铀行业的风险？注意力、经济和地缘政治不确定性的作用

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107980

Štefan Lyócsa , Neda Todorova

Interest in nuclear energy has increased recently due to its low-carbon footprint, energy security concerns, and technological advances. Despite the recent surge in uranium stocks, there is a lack of research on uranium sector volatility. We fill this gap by analyzing the volatility of the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) from 2010 to 2024 using high-frequency data. Our analysis reveals that HAR models effectively capture URA volatility. Market-wide implied volatility and investor attention, captured by Google search volume, are found to contain valuable information for forecasting uranium sector volatility in an in-sample context. In contrast, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, as well as global financial risk, exhibit limited relevance. Although advanced models show some improvement in out-of-sample predictions, the basic HAR model remains a robust benchmark.

最近，由于核能的低碳足迹、能源安全问题和技术进步，人们对核能的兴趣与日俱增。尽管近期铀股大涨，但缺乏对铀行业波动性的研究。我们利用高频数据分析了 Global X Uranium ETF (URA) 从 2010 年到 2024 年的波动性，填补了这一空白。我们的分析表明，HAR 模型能有效捕捉 URA 的波动性。通过谷歌搜索量捕捉到的全市场隐含波动率和投资者关注度被认为包含了在样本环境下预测铀行业波动率的宝贵信息。相比之下，经济和地缘政治不确定性以及全球金融风险的相关性有限。虽然高级模型在样本外预测方面有所改进，但基本 HAR 模型仍然是一个稳健的基准。

引用次数: 0

The impact of artificial intelligence on the energy transition: The role of regulatory quality as a guardrail, not a wall 人工智能对能源转型的影响：监管质量作为护栏而非围墙的作用

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107988

Zequn Dong , Chaodan Tan , Biao Ma , Zhaoshuo Ning

In recent years, the economic impact and environmental contribution of Artificial Intelligence (AI) have gradually become a new focus in academia. This study uses a panel data sample of 50 countries to explore the impact of AI on energy transition (ET), aiming to fill an important research gap. The results highlight several critical insights. First, AI has had a significant positive impact on facilitating the ET. This conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests. Second, AI positively affects ET by promoting renewable energy technology innovation and upgrading the electricity structure, resulting in both technological and structural effects. Third, the impact of AI on ET is non-linear. Threshold effect models show that AI impacts ET differently at various levels of regulation quality (RQ), exhibiting a double threshold effect. AI hinders ET when RQ is lower than the first threshold value. When RQ is in the second range, AI significantly facilitates ET. However, when RQ exceeds the second threshold value, AI hinders ET again. These findings provide insights into the mechanisms of AI's impact on ET and emphasize that an appropriate level of regulation is crucial for AI to facilitate ET. Finally, this study analyzes heterogeneity and offers targeted policy recommendations.

近年来，人工智能（AI）的经济影响和环境贡献逐渐成为学术界的新焦点。本研究利用 50 个国家的面板数据样本，探讨了人工智能对能源转型（ET）的影响，旨在填补一项重要的研究空白。研究结果凸显了几个重要见解。首先，人工智能对促进能源转型具有显著的积极影响。经过一系列稳健性测试后，这一结论依然成立。其次，人工智能通过促进可再生能源技术创新和电力结构升级对能源效率产生积极影响，从而产生技术效应和结构效应。第三，人工智能对发电量的影响是非线性的。阈值效应模型显示，人工智能对不同监管质量（RQ）水平下的发电量的影响不同，表现出双重阈值效应。当 RQ 低于第一个阈值时，人工影响会阻碍蒸散发。当 RQ 处于第二阈值范围时，人工影响会显著促进蒸散发。然而，当 RQ 超过第二个阈值时，人工智能又会阻碍 ET。这些发现深入揭示了人工智能对 ET 的影响机制，并强调适当的调节水平对人工智能促进 ET 至关重要。最后，本研究分析了异质性，并提出了有针对性的政策建议。

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引用次数: 0

Regulatory impact of informality on gasoline consumption efficiency in Africa: A proposed two-part complementary hypothesis test 非正规性对非洲汽油消费效率的监管影响：拟议的两部分互补假设检验

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107970

Philip Kofi Adom

This study provides new evidence for the regulatory impact of informality on gasoline efficiency in Africa. I propose a Two-Part Complementary Hypothesis (hereafter referred to as the TPCH test), advocating a differential approach to promoting gasoline efficiency: (1) an inverted U-shaped relationship between informality and gasoline inefficiency, and (2) a U-shaped relationship between government regulation and informality, with a significant level effect. The findings indicate an inverted U-shaped effect of informality on gasoline efficiency and a level-negative effect of regulation on informality. These results suggest a differential strategy for enhancing gasoline efficiency. Government regulation is more effective in economies at the pre-saturation stage (characterized by normal growth levels of informality) but proves ineffective in economies at the post-saturation stage (characterized by abnormal growth levels of informality), where energy-saving behaviors may be self-motivated. This is corroborated by the inefficiency equation, where indicators of good governance, such as the rule of law, control of corruption, and regulatory quality, are statistically significant in advancing energy efficiency goals. Gasoline efficiency performance varies across countries, with the higher performers also being the continent's most economically advanced. However, these estimates risk downward bias if outliers or unobserved/observed heterogeneity are not considered.

本研究为非洲非正规性对汽油效率的监管影响提供了新的证据。我提出了一个两部分互补假说（以下简称 TPCH 检验），主张采用差异化方法来提高汽油效率：（1）非正规性与汽油低效之间存在倒 U 型关系；（2）政府监管与非正规性之间存在 U 型关系，且存在显著的水平效应。研究结果表明，非正规性对汽油效率的影响呈倒 U 型，而监管对非正规性的影响呈水平负效应。这些结果表明了提高汽油效率的不同策略。政府监管对处于前饱和阶段（以非正规性正常增长水平为特征）的经济体更为有效，但对处于后饱和阶段（以非正规性异常增长水平为特征）的经济体则证明无效，在后饱和阶段，节能行为可能是自我激励的。低效方程也证实了这一点，在低效方程中，法治、腐败控制和监管质量等善治指标对推进能效目标具有显著的统计意义。各国的汽油效率表现各不相同，表现较好的国家也是非洲大陆经济最发达的国家。然而，如果不考虑异常值或未观察到/观察到的异质性，这些估计值有向下偏差的风险。

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引用次数: 0

Geopolitical risks and energy uncertainty: Implications for global and domestic energy prices 地缘政治风险和能源不确定性：对全球和国内能源价格的影响

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107985

Hakan Yilmazkuday

This paper investigates the interaction between global geopolitical risks and global energy uncertainty by focusing on their implications for global and domestic energy prices of 157 countries. The empirical investigation is based on a structural vector autoregression model covering the monthly sample period between 1996 m1-2022m10, where global real economic activity is controlled for. The results show that a unit shock to global geopolitical risk (normalized to one standard deviation) results in about 1.13 units of an increase in global energy uncertainty (normalized to one standard deviation) in the long run (after two years), whereas the corresponding effects on global energy prices are statistically insignificant. In contrast, a unit shock to global energy uncertainty results in about 52 % (57 %) of a reduction in global energy prices (global economic activity), acting like negative global demand shocks. When statistically significant country-specific results are considered in the long run, a positive shock to the global geopolitical risk affects domestic energy prices positively (negatively) in 10 % (10 %) of oil producing countries, 32.1 % (19.7 %) of non-oil producing countries, 47.2 % (0 %) of advanced economies, 55 % (0 %) of euro area countries, 25 % (22.4 %) of emerging markets, and 22.2 % (26.7 %) of developing countries. In comparison, a positive shock to the global energy uncertainty affects domestic energy prices positively (negatively) in 5 % (40 %) of oil producing countries, 3.6 % (54 %) of non-oil producing countries, 0 % (61.1 %) of advanced economies, 0 % (50 %) of euro area countries, 3.9 % (56.6 %) of emerging markets, and 6.7 % (37.8 %) of developing countries. Important policy implications follow regarding the energy security of countries.

本文通过重点研究全球地缘政治风险和全球能源不确定性对 157 个国家的全球和国内能源价格的影响，探讨了它们之间的相互作用。实证研究基于结构向量自回归模型，涵盖 1996 年 m1-2022 年 m10 的月度样本期，并对全球实际经济活动进行了控制。结果显示，全球地缘政治风险的单位冲击（归一化为一个标准差）导致全球能源不确定性（归一化为一个标准差）在长期（两年后）增加约 1.13 个单位，而对全球能源价格的相应影响在统计上并不显著。相反，全球能源不确定性的单位冲击会导致全球能源价格（全球经济活动）下降约 52%（57%），就像全球需求的负冲击一样。从长远来看，如果对具体国家的结果进行统计，全球地缘政治风险的正面冲击会对以下国家的国内能源价格产生正面（负面）影响：10%的产油国、32.1%的非产油国（19.7%）、47.2%的发达经济体（0%）、55%的欧元区国家（0%）、25%的新兴市场国家（22.4%）和 22.2%的发展中国家（26.7%）。相比之下，全球能源不确定性的正面冲击会对以下国家的国内能源价格产生正面（负面）影响：5%的产油国（40%）、3.6%的非产油国（54%）、0%的发达经济体（61.1%）、0%的欧元区国家（50%）、3.9%的新兴市场国家（56.6%）和 6.7%的发展中国家（37.8%）。这对各国的能源安全产生了重要的政策影响。

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引用次数: 0

Dynamic connectedness in the higher moments between clean energy and oil prices 清洁能源与石油价格之间高时刻的动态关联性

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107987

Wei Hao , Linh Pham

Focusing on clean energy stocks and oil prices, we find that connectedness between these assets not only exists in volatility, but also at higher-order moments, such as skewness and kurtosis, which have been largely under studied in the existing literature. Estimating the connectedness using intra-day data, our initial static analyses suggest that the connectedness between the clean energy and oil markets is heterogenous across the moments and the shock transmitter/recipient role played by each market varies across moments. Further dynamic analyses indicate that higher-order moment connectedness is also time varying and appears to be stronger during uncertain market conditions. In addition, we identify day-of-the-week patterns of higher-order moment connectedness during high uncertainty periods, but these patterns appear to be reversed during low uncertainty periods. The employment of Markov switching regression models further corroborates the market uncertainties as the determinants of higher-order moment connectedness. As an important extension, we provide empirical evidence that including clean energy stocks in the investment portfolio can effectively hedge oil price risks and considering higher-order moments in constructing investment strategies adds extra value to investors. Our utility-based hedging strategy and minimum connectedness portfolio can offer higher utility gains and better risk-return trade-offs to those investors who are not infinitely risk-averse.

以清洁能源股票和石油价格为重点，我们发现这些资产之间的关联性不仅存在于波动性中，而且还存在于高阶矩中，如偏度和峰度，而现有文献对这些矩的研究大多不足。通过使用日内数据估算关联性，我们的初步静态分析表明，清洁能源和石油市场之间的关联性在不同时刻是不同的，每个市场在不同时刻所扮演的冲击传递者/接受者角色也不同。进一步的动态分析表明，高阶时刻的关联性也是随时间变化的，在不确定的市场条件下似乎更强。此外，我们还发现，在不确定性较高的时期，高阶时刻关联性的周日模式会发生变化，但在不确定性较低的时期，这些模式似乎会发生逆转。马尔科夫切换回归模型的应用进一步证实了市场不确定性是高阶时刻关联性的决定因素。作为一个重要的延伸，我们提供的实证证据表明，将清洁能源股票纳入投资组合可以有效对冲油价风险，而且在构建投资策略时考虑高阶时刻可以为投资者带来额外价值。我们基于效用的对冲策略和最小关联度投资组合可以为那些并非无限规避风险的投资者提供更高的效用收益和更好的风险收益权衡。

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引用次数: 0

Reassessing the information transmission and pricing influence of Shanghai crude oil futures: A time-varying perspective 重新评估上海原油期货的信息传递和定价影响：时变视角

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107977

Tong Su , Boqiang Lin

The Shanghai crude oil futures market, known as INE, has achieved significant success in trading volume and is increasingly recognized as a nascent crucial oil futures contract. As INE aims to serve as a pivotal global pricing reference, evaluating the dynamic characteristics of its pricing capability is essential for comprehending the evolving market landscape. This study initiates with foundational insights from a time-varying perspective. We uncover the time-varying information transmission of INE within the crude oil futures system and reveal its time-varying predictive causality on crude oil spot prices. The empirical findings yield several significant observations. Firstly, the Shanghai crude oil futures consistently functioned as the net receiver of price information transmission from mainstream international crude oil futures. Secondly, during the initial months of post-INE listing, and amid the global spread of COVID-19, Shanghai crude oil futures displayed less information received. Thirdly, the significant predictive causal influence of INE on the crude oil spot markets is predominantly observed to be valid post-2021, with its predictive capabilities exhibiting an ongoing enhancement. Our findings indicate that INE is gradually solidifying and strengthening its role as an influential player in the global crude oil market as it matures.

被称为 INE 的上海原油期货市场在交易量方面取得了巨大成功，并日益被视为新兴的重要石油期货合约。由于 INE 的目标是成为全球定价的重要参考，评估其定价能力的动态特征对于理解不断变化的市场格局至关重要。本研究首先从时变的角度提出了基本见解。我们揭示了 INE 在原油期货系统中的时变信息传递，并揭示了其对原油现货价格的时变预测因果关系。实证研究结果得出了几个重要结论。首先，上海原油期货始终是国际主流原油期货价格信息传递的净接收者。其次，在INE上市后的最初几个月，在COVID-19全球蔓延的过程中，上海原油期货显示出较少的信息接收。第三，INE对原油现货市场的重要预测因果影响主要在2021年后有效，其预测能力呈现持续增强的趋势。我们的研究结果表明，随着INE的不断成熟，其在全球原油市场中的影响力正在逐步巩固和加强。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating the energy transition with the Carbon-Energy-Green-Electricity scheme: An industrial chain-based approach for China's carbon neutrality 以碳-能-绿-电计划引领能源转型：基于产业链的中国碳中和方法

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107984

Yanfang Zhang , Qi Gao , Hao Li , Xunpeng Shi , Dequn Zhou

In exploring the intricate dynamics of China's energy transition towards a national certificate trading market, this study harnesses a two-stage game model to unravel the nuanced decision-making within the intertwined carbon emissions trading, energy-consumption permit trading, and electricity markets. A novel industrial chain-based policy framework, i.e., the Carbon-Energy-Green-Electricity (CEGE) scheme, is introduced to address the complexity inherent in aligning these trading markets towards carbon neutrality goals. Findings reveal that the current isolated energy transition policies lead to increased electricity prices and imposes redundant regulatory burdens on power companies. By advocating for the CEGE scheme, the study presents a strategic approach to alleviate these challenges, highlighting its potential to lower electricity costs and foster more efficient carbon reduction efforts. Furthermore, it underscores the importance of integrating energy transition policies, including CET, ECPTS, the renewable portfolio standards (RPS), and the tradable green certificate program (TGC), to enhance renewable energy adoption, offering a path to relieve financial pressures on households while supporting broader environmental and economic welfare improvements.

在探索中国能源向国家证书交易市场转型的复杂动态过程中，本研究利用两阶段博弈模型来揭示相互交织的碳排放交易、能耗许可交易和电力市场中的微妙决策。研究引入了一个基于产业链的新型政策框架，即 "碳-能-绿-电（CEGE）计划"，以解决这些交易市场在实现碳中和目标过程中固有的复杂性。研究结果表明，当前孤立的能源转型政策会导致电价上涨，并给电力公司带来多余的监管负担。通过倡导 CEGE 计划，该研究提出了缓解这些挑战的战略方法，强调了其降低电力成本和促进更有效的碳减排努力的潜力。此外，研究还强调了整合能源转型政策的重要性，包括 CET、ECPTS、可再生能源组合标准 (RPS) 和可交易绿色证书计划 (TGC)，以提高可再生能源的采用率，为缓解家庭经济压力提供了一条途径，同时支持更广泛的环境和经济福利改善。

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引用次数: 0