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Climate policy uncertainty, clean energy and energy metals: A quantile time-frequency spillover study 气候政策的不确定性、清洁能源和能源金属:量化时频溢出效应研究
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107919
Sen Qiao , Yuan Chang , Xi Xi Mai , Yi Jing Dang
Climate change mitigation has become a global imperative, making the development of clean energy very important. This paper explores the risk contagion effects among climate policy uncertainty (CPU), clean energy, and energy metals from the quantile time-frequency spillover perspective. The results show that: (1) The spillover effects among climate policy uncertainty, clean energy, and energy metals are nonlinear across the entire conditional distribution, showing a “V” shape, with the right-tailed risk contagion effect being more significant. (2) The risk contagion effect is abruptly enhanced by external extreme event shocks, with stronger market connectivity in the low-frequency band compared to the high-frequency band. Short-term spillover effects dominate cross-market risk contagion in the upper quantile, while long-term spillover effects dominate the lower quantile. (3) The spillover network is characterized by abrupt structural changes. That is, clean energy is a source of risk contagion at lower quantiles, while energy metals are a source of risk contagion at upper quantiles. (4) The CPU acts as an important node in the cross-market risk contagion path. Driven by CPU, the upper quantile and the long-term risk transmission is along “energy metal-clean energy” path, while the lower quantile and the short-term risk transmission is along “clean energy-energy metal” path.
减缓气候变化已成为全球的当务之急,这使得清洁能源的发展变得非常重要。本文从量子时频溢出的角度探讨了气候政策不确定性(CPU)、清洁能源和能源金属之间的风险传染效应。结果表明(1)气候政策不确定性、清洁能源和能源金属之间的溢出效应在整个条件分布中呈非线性,呈现 "V "型,右尾的风险传染效应更为显著。(2) 风险传染效应在外部极端事件冲击下突然增强,低频段的市场连通性强于高频段。短期溢出效应在上量级的跨市场风险传染中占主导地位,而长期溢出效应在下量级的跨市场风险传染中占主导地位。(3)溢出网络具有结构突变的特点。也就是说,清洁能源是较低量化值的风险传染源,而能源金属则是较高量化值的风险传染源。(4)中央处理器是跨市场风险传染路径中的重要节点。在中央处理器的驱动下,上量纲和长期风险传染沿 "能源金属-清洁能源 "路径,下量纲和短期风险传染沿 "清洁能源-能源金属 "路径。
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引用次数: 0
Air Pollution and Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation: Evidence from South Korea 空气污染与太阳能光伏发电:来自韩国的证据
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107924
Moon Joon Kim
Solar energy, with its declining costs and enhanced efficiency, is a viable alternative to traditional fossil fuels. However, its effectiveness is compromised by atmospheric and meteorological conditions, particularly air pollution, which reduces solar radiation and panel efficiency. This study estimates the impact of air pollution on solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation in South Korea, a rapidly industrializing nation with high levels of air pollution and a growing focus on renewable energy. Using hourly power generation data from 2006 to 2013 and addressing potential endogeneity of PM10 with an instrumental variable approach, we find that a 10 mg/m3 increase in PM10 reduces solar power generation by 2.17 MWh, resulting in an estimated annual economic loss of approximately USD 2.2 million during the study period. These findings highlight the urgent need to mitigate air pollution to enhance solar power efficiency and maximize the social benefits of renewable energy.
太阳能具有成本低、效率高的特点,是传统化石燃料的可行替代品。然而,大气和气象条件,特别是空气污染会降低太阳能辐射和太阳能电池板的效率,从而影响太阳能的有效性。这项研究估算了空气污染对韩国太阳能光伏发电的影响,韩国是一个快速工业化的国家,空气污染严重,而且越来越重视可再生能源。利用 2006 年至 2013 年的每小时发电量数据,并通过工具变量法解决 PM10 潜在的内生性问题,我们发现 PM10 每增加 10 毫克/立方米,太阳能发电量就会减少 2.17 兆瓦时,估计在研究期间每年会造成约 220 万美元的经济损失。这些发现突出表明,迫切需要减轻空气污染,以提高太阳能发电效率,最大限度地发挥可再生能源的社会效益。
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引用次数: 0
Energy firms in China towards resilience: A dynamic quantile connectedness approach 中国能源企业的抗风险能力:动态量子关联方法
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107921
Pavlos Koulmas , Konstantinos N. Konstantakis , Panayotis G. Michaelides , Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou , Sotiris Karkalakos
Α comprehensive understanding of the energy and technology sectors is imperative for the implementation of effective climate and industrial policies. This study investigates the quantile interconnectedness between the top five energy equities and the top five technology equities, listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index (SSE50), based on market capitalization. Employing the Quantile VAR methodology, we uncover significant interconnectedness across various quantiles of the return distribution for both energy and technology equities. This implies that price fluctuations within one sector can have a significant effect on the other. Furthermore, our analysis reveals directional connectedness, where energy equities consistently influence technology equity prices throughout the entire period of investigation. Additionally, a heightened degree of interconnectedness is observed during periods of extreme market movements, i.e. in the upper and lower tails of the return distribution. This suggests a more integrated system during stressed conditions, where all equities under investigation exhibit a magnified influence on each other, potentially leading to amplified volatility spillovers. These findings provide valuable insights for investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers, enabling them to develop more informed investment strategies and construct robust risk management frameworks.
要实施有效的气候和产业政策,就必须全面了解能源和技术行业。本研究调查了在上海证券交易所 50 指数(SSE50)上市的前五大能源类股票和前五大科技类股票之间基于市值的量化相互关联性。利用量子 VAR 方法,我们发现能源和科技股在收益分布的不同量级之间存在显著的相互关联性。这意味着一个行业的价格波动会对另一个行业产生重大影响。此外,我们的分析还揭示了方向性关联,在整个调查期间,能源股票始终影响着技术股票的价格。此外,在极端市场波动期间,即回报率分布的上尾部和下尾部,我们观察到了更高程度的相互关联性。这表明,在受压条件下,所有被调查的股票都会表现出更大的相互影响,从而可能导致波动溢出效应的扩大。这些发现为投资者、投资组合经理和政策制定者提供了宝贵的见解,使他们能够制定更明智的投资策略,构建稳健的风险管理框架。
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引用次数: 0
Climate risk and energy-saving technology innovation: Evidence from Chinese prefecture-level cities 气候风险与节能技术创新:来自中国地级市的证据
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107917
Li Xie , Siyi Li
In the face of the challenges of energy and environmental issues posed by climate risk, actively promoting energy-saving technology innovation is crucial in addressing climate risk. This study focuses on the electricity elements as the research object, and examines the impact of climate risk on energy-saving technology innovation by constructing a Spatial Durbin Model, using 2007–2021 data on temperature and electricity-saving technology patents at the prefecture-level cities in China. The findings reveal that climate risk promotes energy-saving technology innovation. Furthermore, it is discovered that climate risk exhibits significant positive spillover effects on energy-saving technology innovation through the decomposition of spatial effects, implying that the climate risk in neighboring areas has a notable positive influence on local energy-saving technology innovation. Mechanism tests indicate that climate risk directly promotes regional energy-saving technology innovation through increasing energy consumption, research and development (R&D) investment, and strengthening government environmental regulation. Particularly under the influence of climate risk, the increase in energy consumption and R&D investment more effectively drives regional energy-saving technology innovation. Moreover, variances in cities' geographical locations, carbon emission levels, electricity price levels, and electricity resource endowments result in substantial discrepancies in the effect of climate risk on energy-saving technology innovation. Based on these findings, Governments could incorporate climate risk into synergistic regional planning and enhance energy-saving technology innovation to address climate risk.
面对气候风险带来的能源和环境问题的挑战,积极推动节能技术创新是应对气候风险的关键。本研究以电力要素为研究对象,利用 2007-2021 年中国地级市气温和节电技术专利数据,通过构建空间杜宾模型,研究气候风险对节能技术创新的影响。研究结果表明,气候风险会促进节能技术创新。此外,通过空间效应的分解发现,气候风险对节能技术创新具有显著的正溢出效应,这意味着邻近地区的气候风险对当地的节能技术创新具有显著的正向影响。机制检验表明,气候风险通过增加能源消耗、研发投资和加强政府环境监管直接促进了地区节能技术创新。特别是在气候风险的影响下,能源消费和研发投资的增加更有效地推动了区域节能技术创新。此外,城市地理位置、碳排放水平、电价水平和电力资源禀赋的差异导致气候风险对节能技术创新的影响存在很大差异。基于上述结论,各国政府可将气候风险纳入区域协同规划,加强节能技术创新以应对气候风险。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring financial stability in the presence of energy shocks 衡量能源冲击下的金融稳定性
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107922
Javier Sánchez-García , Raffaele Mattera , Salvador Cruz-Rambaud , Roy Cerqueti

The Russia–Ukraine conflict highlighted how important energy is for the surveillance of economies worldwide. Both war and economic sanctions inevitably affected energy-related commodity prices. Although shocks in energy commodities are known to have an effect on financial stability, this information is not included in existing financial stability indicators. In this paper, we first provide empirical evidence on the existing relationship between energy-related commodities and financial stability in the EU, UK and US, as well as their importance in the forecast of economic downturns. Based on this evidence, we propose a new composite indicator of financial stability which incorporates relevant information from the energy markets. The suitability of the new composite indicator is assessed by its ability to track financial, economic, and energy crises.

俄乌冲突凸显了能源对全球经济监控的重要性。战争和经济制裁都不可避免地影响了与能源相关的商品价格。尽管众所周知能源商品的冲击会对金融稳定产生影响,但现有的金融稳定指标并未包含这一信息。在本文中,我们首先提供了欧盟、英国和美国能源相关商品与金融稳定之间现有关系的实证证据,以及它们在预测经济衰退中的重要性。在此基础上,我们提出了一个新的金融稳定性综合指标,其中纳入了能源市场的相关信息。新综合指标的适用性通过其跟踪金融、经济和能源危机的能力进行评估。
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引用次数: 0
Time-varying effects of structural oil price shocks on financial market uncertainty 结构性石油价格冲击对金融市场不确定性的时变效应
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107910
Junqi Yang, Jiang-Bo Geng, Ziwei Liang

This study employed the structural oil price decomposition method proposed by Ready (2018) to decompose oil price shocks into oil risk shocks, demand shocks, and supply shocks. By using the Diebold and Yilmaz (DY) spillover index and rolling window methods, the static and dynamic spillovers of structural oil price shocks on financial market uncertainty were examined. The findings suggest that oil risk shocks exhibited the strongest spillover effects on financial market uncertainty (except for South Africa), followed by oil demand shocks, while oil supply shocks had virtually no impact. Second, the effects of structural oil price shocks on financial market uncertainty were time-varying. Third, significant differences in the spillover effects of structural oil price shocks on financial market uncertainty were found across countries, and the spillover effect of oil risk shocks on the financial market uncertainty in the United States was the largest in all periods. Fourth, the spillover effects of oil demand shocks on financial market uncertainty were larger in the high than in the low oil price period (except for Japan). Finally, during the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease) pandemic compared with the pre-epidemic period, the spillover effects of oil risk shocks on the financial market uncertainty in China significantly decreased, while simultaneously, the spillover effects of oil supply shocks on the financial market uncertainty in Australia substantially increased.

本研究采用Ready(2018)提出的结构性油价分解方法,将油价冲击分解为石油风险冲击、需求冲击和供给冲击。通过使用 Diebold 和 Yilmaz(DY)溢出指数法和滚动窗口法,考察了结构性油价冲击对金融市场不确定性的静态和动态溢出效应。研究结果表明,石油风险冲击对金融市场不确定性的溢出效应最强(南非除外),其次是石油需求冲击,而石油供应冲击几乎没有影响。其次,结构性石油价格冲击对金融市场不确定性的影响是时变的。第三,结构性石油价格冲击对金融市场不确定性的溢出效应在不同国家之间存在显著差异,在所有时期,石油风险冲击对美国金融市场不确定性的溢出效应最大。第四,石油需求冲击对金融市场不确定性的溢出效应在高油价时期大于低油价时期(日本除外)。最后,在 COVID-19(冠状病毒病)大流行期间,与流行前相比,石油风险冲击对中国金融市场不确定性的溢出效应显著下降,而与此同时,石油供应冲击对澳大利亚金融市场不确定性的溢出效应大幅上升。
{"title":"Time-varying effects of structural oil price shocks on financial market uncertainty","authors":"Junqi Yang,&nbsp;Jiang-Bo Geng,&nbsp;Ziwei Liang","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107910","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107910","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study employed the structural oil price decomposition method proposed by Ready (2018) to decompose oil price shocks into oil risk shocks, demand shocks, and supply shocks. By using the Diebold and Yilmaz (DY) spillover index and rolling window methods, the static and dynamic spillovers of structural oil price shocks on financial market uncertainty were examined. The findings suggest that oil risk shocks exhibited the strongest spillover effects on financial market uncertainty (except for South Africa), followed by oil demand shocks, while oil supply shocks had virtually no impact. Second, the effects of structural oil price shocks on financial market uncertainty were time-varying. Third, significant differences in the spillover effects of structural oil price shocks on financial market uncertainty were found across countries, and the spillover effect of oil risk shocks on the financial market uncertainty in the United States was the largest in all periods. Fourth, the spillover effects of oil demand shocks on financial market uncertainty were larger in the high than in the low oil price period (except for Japan). Finally, during the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease) pandemic compared with the pre-epidemic period, the spillover effects of oil risk shocks on the financial market uncertainty in China significantly decreased, while simultaneously, the spillover effects of oil supply shocks on the financial market uncertainty in Australia substantially increased.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 107910"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142274196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Vertical acquisition and carbon capture and storage choices under cap-and-trade regulation with sustainable finance 可持续融资的总量控制与交易监管下的纵向获取和碳捕获与封存选择
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107912
Shi Chen , Yonghong Zhao , Chuen-Ping Chang , Jyh-Horng Lin , Ching-Hui Chang

In this paper, we establish a contingent claim framework for environmental management. The paper focuses on the vertical acquisition of a supply chain in the context of sustainable insurance (i.e., sustainable finance), specifically considering carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology choices and cap-and-trade regulations. The main results are as follows. Firstly, a more stringent cap-and-trade scheme increases equity efficiency in sustainable insurance, particularly when the green upstream manufacturer with advanced CCS technology acquires the brown downstream manufacturer, which also uses advanced CCS technology. Secondly, it harms risk efficiency, especially when the green upstream manufacturer with backward CCS technology acquires the brown downstream manufacturer, which uses advanced CCS technology. Thirdly, it increases the default risk in the insurer's equity, especially when the green upstream manufacturer with backward CCS technology acquires the brown downstream manufacturer, which also uses backward CCS technology. Overall, cap-and-trade's effects on equity and risk efficiency in vertical acquisition and default risk in insurer's equity within sustainable insurance depend on adopting CCS technology. Policymakers should incentivize advanced CCS technologies in vertical acquisitions to enhance equity and reduce default risks, supporting long-term financial stability and environmental sustainability toward Sustainable Development Goals.

在本文中,我们为环境管理建立了一个或有索赔框架。本文的重点是在可持续保险(即可持续金融)背景下的供应链纵向收购,特别考虑了碳捕集与封存(CCS)技术选择和总量控制与交易法规。主要结果如下。首先,更严格的总量控制与交易计划提高了可持续保险的公平效率,尤其是当采用先进碳捕集与封存技术的绿色上游制造商收购同样采用先进碳捕集与封存技术的棕色下游制造商时。其次,它损害了风险效率,尤其是当采用落后 CCS 技术的绿色上游制造商收购采用先进 CCS 技术的棕色下游制造商时。第三,它增加了保险公司股权的违约风险,尤其是当采用落后 CCS 技术的绿色上游制造商收购同样采用落后 CCS 技术的棕色下游制造商时。总之,在可持续保险中,限额交易对纵向收购的公平性和风险效率以及保险人权益的违约风险的影响取决于是否采用 CCS 技术。政策制定者应鼓励在垂直收购中采用先进的 CCS 技术,以提高公平性并降低违约风险,从而支持实现可持续发展目标的长期金融稳定和环境可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the dilemma of straw economy in China: An analysis based on tripartite evolutionary game model 探索中国秸秆经济的困境:基于三方演化博弈模型的分析
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107913
Wuliyasu Bai , Long Zhang , Zhiqiao Zhou , Liang Yan

The prohibition of open-air straw burning in China has been proved to be an effective measure for improving air quality and promoting straw utilization. However, the marketization and industrialization of straw utilization, or the commercialized development of “straw economy”, still faces several dilemmas. This paper constructed the tripartite evolutionary game model of farmers, straw utilization companies, and local governments, and analyzed the stability of equilibrium points to identify the strategic factors and influencing mechanisms among the stakeholders in straw industrialization. Moreover, numerical simulations are conducted to explore the effects of changes in key parameters and initial strategy selection on the evolution results under the market mechanism. The results showed that: (1) the optimal state of the tripartite evolutionary stability strategy of straw resource utilization is the formation of straw market, wherein farmers are inclined to vend straw, enterprises are eager to utilize it, and the government abstains from inducements. (2) farmers and straw utilization companies are highly sensitive to straw purchase prices and the other costs in straw utilization; (3) the evolutionary convergence of the strategy selection among the game subjects has shown an obvious interdependence. To promote the development of straw economy, the government ought to recalibrate policy instruments for the straw market temporally, sequentially implementing strategies encompassing subsidies, establishment of procurement depots, and commendation incentives.

事实证明,中国禁止露天焚烧秸秆是改善空气质量、促进秸秆利用的有效措施。然而,秸秆利用的市场化和产业化,或者说 "秸秆经济 "的商业化发展,仍然面临着一些困境。本文构建了农民、秸秆利用企业和地方政府的三方演化博弈模型,分析了均衡点的稳定性,找出了秸秆产业化过程中利益相关者之间的战略因素和影响机制。此外,还通过数值模拟探讨了市场机制下关键参数变化和初始策略选择对演化结果的影响。结果表明(1)秸秆资源利用三方演化稳定策略的最优状态是秸秆市场的形成,即农民倾向于出售秸秆,企业渴望利用秸秆,政府放弃诱导。(2)农户和秸秆利用企业对秸秆收购价格和秸秆利用中的其他成本高度敏感;(3)博弈主体间策略选择的演化趋同性表现出明显的相互依赖关系。为促进秸秆经济的发展,政府应在时间上重新调整秸秆市场的政策工具,依次实施补贴、建立收购站、表彰激励等策略。
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引用次数: 0
Economic sanctions and energy efficiency: Evidence from Iranian industrial sub-sectors 经济制裁与能源效率:伊朗工业分部门的证据
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107920
Leyla Jabari , Ali Asghar Salem , Omid Zamani , Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

Improving energy efficiency is vital for reducing energy consumption and can have substantial impacts on reducing carbon emissions. This study investigates the impact of sanctions on Iran's energy efficiency across different industrial sub-sectors from 2015 to 2019. We compute a sanction intensity index for each industrial sub-sector using principal component analysis. This index measures how much each sub-sector has been affected by sanctions. Additionally, energy efficiency is measured using the directional distance function method, considering the emission impacts as undesirable outputs. We use fixed effects regression analysis, adjusting for various manifestations of cross-sectional (spatial) and temporal dependence and controlling for other sectoral drivers of energy efficiency. We find a significant negative effect of sanction intensity on energy efficiency at the industrial sub-sector level in Iran. The negative effect of sanctions on energy efficiency is significantly larger for industrial units with higher import dependency.

提高能源效率对减少能源消耗至关重要,并可对减少碳排放产生重大影响。本研究调查了 2015 年至 2019 年制裁对伊朗不同工业子行业能源效率的影响。我们使用主成分分析法计算了每个工业子行业的制裁强度指数。该指数衡量了各子行业受制裁影响的程度。此外,我们还使用定向距离函数法来衡量能源效率,将排放影响视为不良产出。我们使用固定效应回归分析法,对横截面(空间)和时间依赖性的各种表现进行调整,并控制能源效率的其他部门驱动因素。我们发现,在伊朗的工业分部门层面,制裁强度对能源效率有明显的负面影响。对于进口依赖度较高的工业单位,制裁对能源效率的负面影响明显更大。
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引用次数: 0
Transition to a green economy, oil prices and the current account 向绿色经济转型、石油价格和经常账户
IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107916
Solikin M. Juhro , Paresh Kumar Narayan , Bhavesh Garg , Donni Fajar Anugrah

In this paper we propose and develop the hypothesis that a transition to a green economy influences the consumption-smoothing component of the current account. This is important because green economy has the potential to improve current accounts. Using a sample of 23 countries, we discover that when renewable energy consumption as a share of total final energy consumption is below the threshold value of 23.561 %, there is a negative impact of oil prices on the current account. However, the negative impact diminishes when renewable consumption exceeds this threshold. Interestingly, splitting the sample into current account surplus and deficit countries reveals that a transition to a greener economy mitigates the negative impacts of an oil price rise more so for deficit countries than surplus countries.

在本文中,我们提出并发展了一个假设,即向绿色经济转型会影响经常账户中的消费平滑部分。这一点非常重要,因为绿色经济具有改善经常账户的潜力。利用 23 个国家的样本,我们发现当可再生能源消费占最终能源消费总量的比例低于 23.561 % 的临界值时,石油价格会对经常账户产生负面影响。然而,当可再生能源消费超过这个临界值时,负面影响就会减弱。有趣的是,将样本分为经常账户盈余国和赤字国可以发现,与盈余国相比,赤字国向绿色经济转型更能减轻石油价格上涨的负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
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Energy Economics
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