Energy Economics最新文献_第10页

Revisiting the crisis: An empirical analysis of the NEM suspension 重新审视危机：对非股权激励计划暂停的实证分析

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107983

Arvind Rangarajan , Jiri Svec , Sean Foley , Stefan Trück

This paper examines the suspension of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) that occurred in June 2022. Our study aims to (i) identify the key factors leading to the market suspension, (ii) investigate the behaviour of market participants and price outcomes during this period, and (iii) provide important recommendations for policy and decision-makers related to avoiding or managing crises in wholesale electricity markets. We contribute to the literature by focusing on a severe market crisis event, thoroughly examining generator bidding, dispatch and spot price dynamics over different time periods around the suspension event. Our study examines these dynamics at a high degree of granularity, presenting results at the generator fuel level and for different sub-samples, including the pre-crisis period, the built-up of the crisis, the suspension period, and after the crisis. Our empirical findings highlight that policymaking, in particular the set level of the administered price cap, as well as a lack of reliable substitutes for fossil fuel generation, were leading causes for the suspension. Further, our analysis finds limited evidence of strategic bidding on average but does not deny its possibility at granular levels. Finally, we propose policy implications based on our findings to ensure a well-functioning NEM that can facilitate a smooth energy transition.

本文研究了 2022 年 6 月发生的澳大利亚全国电力市场（NEM）暂停事件。我们的研究旨在：(i) 确定导致市场暂停的关键因素；(ii) 调查在此期间市场参与者的行为和价格结果；(iii) 为政策和决策者提供有关避免或管理电力批发市场危机的重要建议。我们以严重的市场危机事件为重点，深入研究了暂停事件前后不同时期的发电机投标、调度和现货价格动态，为相关文献做出了贡献。我们的研究对这些动态进行了高度细化的考察，给出了发电机燃料层面和不同子样本的结果，包括危机前、危机积累期、暂停期和危机后。我们的实证研究结果表明，政策制定，尤其是管理价格上限的设定水平，以及化石燃料发电缺乏可靠的替代品，是导致暂停的主要原因。此外，我们的分析还发现，平均而言，战略竞标的证据有限，但并不否认其在细微层面上的可能性。最后，我们根据研究结果提出了政策建议，以确保运行良好的新能源市场机制能够促进能源平稳过渡。

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引用次数: 0

Novel and old news sentiment in commodity futures markets 商品期货市场的新旧新闻情绪

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108006

Yeguang Chi, Lina El-Jahel, Thanh Vu

This study investigates the relationship between novel and old news sentiment and commodity futures returns. Using TRNA data from Thomson Reuters, we measure daily sentiment of both novel and old news to estimate their impact on commodity futures returns. Our findings reveal that both novel and old news sentiment significantly correlate with returns, with old sentiment having a stronger effect. Notably, only old news sentiment triggers an overreaction on the news day, which largely reverses over the subsequent 30 trading days. During periods of high financial stress and uncertainty, old news sentiment has a more pronounced impact on commodity futures returns. This paper contributes to the literature by highlighting the distinct impact patterns of old and novel news sentiment.

本研究探讨了新旧新闻情绪与商品期货收益之间的关系。利用汤森路透的 TRNA 数据，我们测量了每日新旧新闻情绪，以估计它们对商品期货收益的影响。我们的研究结果表明，新旧新闻情绪都与收益率有显著相关性，其中旧新闻情绪的影响更大。值得注意的是，只有旧新闻情绪会在新闻发布当天引发过度反应，而这种过度反应在随后的 30 个交易日中基本会逆转。在金融压力和不确定性较大的时期，旧新闻情绪对商品期货收益的影响更为明显。本文通过强调旧新闻情绪和新新闻情绪的不同影响模式，为相关文献做出了贡献。

引用次数: 0

The interaction of income inequality and energy poverty on global carbon emissions: A dynamic panel data approach 收入不平等与能源贫困对全球碳排放的相互作用：动态面板数据方法

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108027

Feng Wang , Mengdie Qu

Income inequality and energy poverty are critical obstacles to the worldwide low-carbon transformation and deeply affect human behavior. Applying a dynamic panel data model, this study investigates the effect of income inequality and energy poverty on global carbon emissions. We determine the effect of the interaction between income inequality and energy poverty on the global low-carbon transformation based on a panel data set of 193 countries from 1990 to 2019. A one standard deviation decrease in the Gini coefficient causes a 2.98 % decrease in carbon emissions per capita, with the median value of energy poverty. However, in poor countries where the proportion of population with access to electricity is less than 86.0 %, reducing income inequality will increase carbon emissions. The role of energy poverty on carbon emissions per capita is also affected by income inequality. When the Gini coefficient is lower than 0.461, increasing access to electricity will reduce carbon emissions. In contrast, when the Gini coefficient is higher than the critical value of 0.461, increased access to electricity will raise carbon emissions. These findings indicate a new strategy for advancing low-carbon transformation based on the interrelationship between income equality and energy poverty eradication.

收入不平等和能源贫困是全球低碳转型的关键障碍，深刻影响着人类的行为。本研究运用动态面板数据模型，研究了收入不平等和能源贫困对全球碳排放的影响。我们基于 1990 年至 2019 年 193 个国家的面板数据集，确定了收入不平等和能源贫困之间的相互作用对全球低碳转型的影响。基尼系数每减少一个标准差，人均碳排放量就会减少 2.98%，能源贫困的中值为 2.98%。然而，在用电人口比例低于 86.0% 的贫困国家，减少收入不平等会增加碳排放量。能源贫困对人均碳排放量的影响还受到收入不平等的影响。当基尼系数低于 0.461 时，增加电力供应将减少碳排放。相反，当基尼系数高于临界值 0.461 时，增加电力供应将增加碳排放量。这些研究结果表明，基于收入平等和消除能源贫困之间的相互关系，可以为推进低碳转型提供新的战略。

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引用次数: 0

Distributive justice concerns when combating air pollution: The joint modelling of attitudes and preferences 治理空气污染时的分配公正问题：态度和偏好的联合建模

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107978

Anna Małgorzata Bartczak , Wiktor Budziński , Ulf Liebe , Jurgen Meyerhoff

Distributive justice is an important but often overlooked factor in policy evaluation. We thus examine how people's attitudes towards distributive justice affect their preferences for programmes aimed at reducing ambient air pollution resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels for residential heating. To do so, we carried out two multifactorial survey experiments that allowed us to incorporate justice attitudes into non-market valuation. The first experiment focused on recording justice attitudes towards payment distribution for air quality improvement, while the second experiment measured the willingness to pay for air pollution reduction programmes. Both experiments were conducted with the same respondents, from four cities in Poland, and were conducted separately one to two weeks apart. As a modelling approach, we employ a hybrid choice model. Our findings indicate that people strongly support an equity-based cost distribution and that those with a stronger equity-based distributive justice attitude are more willing to pay for air quality improvement programmes.

分配公正是政策评估中的一个重要因素，但往往被忽视。因此，我们研究了人们对分配公正的态度如何影响他们对旨在减少居民取暖燃烧化石燃料造成的环境空气污染计划的偏好。为此，我们开展了两项多因素调查实验，将公正态度纳入非市场评估。第一个实验主要记录了人们对改善空气质量的付款分配的公正态度，第二个实验则衡量了人们对减少空气污染计划的付款意愿。两个实验的受访者相同，都来自波兰的四个城市，实验时间分别相隔一到两周。作为建模方法，我们采用了混合选择模型。我们的研究结果表明，人们强烈支持以公平为基础的成本分配，而那些具有较强公平公正态度的人更愿意为空气质量改善计划付费。

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引用次数: 0

The masking effect of green innovation: A study based on carbon market shocks 绿色创新的掩蔽效应：基于碳市场冲击的研究

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108035

Xiaoping He , Wenbo Dai

Previous empirical evidence indicates that the carbon market exerts a positive influence on the performance of corporate green innovation. In light of the proposition that there are differences in the green innovation capabilities of firms, we propose a masking effect hypothesis which suggests that the carbon market does, in fact, improve firms' green innovation performance at the overall level. However, separately, this improvement effect is only observed for high-capability firms, and not for ordinary firms. We test the hypothesis and explore the potential mechanism. The results show that, firstly, the outstanding green innovation performance of high-capability firms leads to a masking effect, which is robust to different estimation methods and variable settings. Secondly, the high innovation capability increases the positive effect of the carbon market on green innovation, irrespective of whether the capability is brown or green, which means a weak version of the masking effect. Finally, the different propensities towards co-innovation lead to the masking effect.

以往的经验证据表明，碳市场对企业的绿色创新绩效产生了积极影响。鉴于企业的绿色创新能力存在差异，我们提出了一个掩蔽效应假设，认为碳市场确实在整体上提高了企业的绿色创新绩效。然而，单独来看，只有高能力企业才能观察到这种改善效应，普通企业则没有。我们对这一假设进行了检验，并探索了潜在的机制。结果表明：首先，高能力企业突出的绿色创新绩效导致了一种掩蔽效应，这种效应在不同的估计方法和变量设置下都是稳健的。其次，无论企业的创新能力是棕色还是绿色，高创新能力都会增加碳市场对绿色创新的积极影响，这意味着掩蔽效应的弱化。最后，对共同创新的不同倾向导致了掩蔽效应。

引用次数: 0

Systemic risk spillovers among global energy firms: Does geopolitical risk matter? 全球能源企业的系统风险溢出效应：地缘政治风险重要吗？

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108036

Jiahao Liu , Bo Zhu , Xin Hu

In recent years, the worsening global geopolitical conditions have led investors and policy makers to become increasingly concerned about systemic risk in the global energy market. However, the existing literature has little empirical evidence on this problem from a geopolitical perspective. Based on an Elastic-Net-VAR model for depicting high-dimensional left-tail interdependence, this paper measures time-varying systemic risk spillovers among 212 energy firms in 36 countries. Then, a panel data model is established to examine the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on risk spillovers. Our results indicate that the GPR of a country directly intensifies the risk spillovers of the country's energy firms, as well as spreads to other countries based on geographic proximity and energy trade flows and indirectly intensifies the risk spillovers of the energy firms in these countries. Specifically, the indirect effects of GPR are more pronounced than the direct effects for fossil fuel firms, in oil-consuming countries, and during stable periods in global geopolitics. Moreover, the potential firm-level mechanisms through which GPR intensifies risk spillovers are declines in asset turnover, deceleration in corporate investment, and negative market forecasts. These findings can help to mitigate the adverse effects of GPR on energy firm performance, national energy security, and stability in the global energy market.

近年来，全球地缘政治形势不断恶化，导致投资者和政策制定者越来越关注全球能源市场的系统性风险。然而，现有文献很少从地缘政治角度对这一问题进行实证研究。本文基于描述高维左尾相互依存关系的弹性网-VAR 模型，衡量了 36 个国家 212 家能源公司的系统性风险溢出效应的时变性。然后，建立面板数据模型，研究地缘政治风险（GPR）对风险溢出的影响。我们的研究结果表明，一国的地缘政治风险会直接加剧该国能源企业的风险溢出效应，并根据地理位置的邻近性和能源贸易流量扩散到其他国家，间接加剧这些国家能源企业的风险溢出效应。具体而言，对于化石燃料企业、石油消费国以及全球地缘政治稳定时期而言，GPR 的间接效应比直接效应更为明显。此外，全球石油价格波动加剧风险溢出效应的潜在企业层面机制是资产周转率下降、企业投资减速和负面市场预测。这些发现有助于减轻全球能源价格波动对能源公司业绩、国家能源安全和全球能源市场稳定的不利影响。

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引用次数: 0

Multivariate probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices with trading applications 电价的多变量概率预测与交易应用

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108008

Ilyas Agakishiev , Wolfgang Karl Härdle , Milos Kopa , Karel Kozmik , Alla Petukhina

This study extends recently introduced neural networks approach, based on a regularized distributional multilayer perceptron (DMLP) technique for a multivariate case electricity price forecasting. The performance of a fully connected architecture and a LSTM architecture of neural networks are tested. Different from previous studies we incorporate dependence between multiple exchanges (EPEX and Nord Pool). The empirical data application analyzes two auctions in the day-ahead electricity market for the United Kingdom market. Along with statistical evaluation of probabilistic forecasts we develop a flexible bidding strategy based on risk-adjusted investor utility function. The trading application leverages the differences of the two exchanges by having long/short positions in both. Our findings demonstrate while DMLP shows similar performance compared to the benchmarks, the algorithm is considerably less computationally costly. LASSO Quantile Regression is better in terms if statistical evaluation of distributional fit, while DMLP outperforms in terms of Sharpe ratio (by 18%) in the trading application.

本研究在正则化分布多层感知器（DMLP）技术的基础上，扩展了最近推出的神经网络方法，用于多变量情况下的电价预测。对神经网络的全连接架构和 LSTM 架构的性能进行了测试。与以往的研究不同，我们纳入了多个交易所（EPEX 和 Nord Pool）之间的依赖关系。实证数据应用分析了英国市场日前电力市场的两次拍卖。在对概率预测进行统计评估的同时，我们还根据风险调整后的投资者效用函数制定了灵活的投标策略。交易应用利用了两个交易所的差异，在两个交易所都持有多头/空头头寸。我们的研究结果表明，与基准相比，DMLP 表现出相似的性能，但该算法的计算成本要低得多。就分布拟合度的统计评估而言，LASSO 量化回归更胜一筹，而在交易应用中，DMLP 在夏普比率方面表现更好（提高了 18%）。

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引用次数: 0

Wealth maximisation and residential energy-efficiency retrofits: Insights from a real options model 财富最大化与住宅节能改造：实物期权模型的启示

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108022

Anthony Britto, Joris Dehler-Holland, Wolf Fichtner

The slow adoption of residential energy-efficiency retrofits continues to hamper the energy transition. We study incentives for adoption by proposing a model of optimal investment under uncertainty where the wealth-maximising agent has the option to delay. Stochastic portfolio returns and energy prices are taken into account. An extension of the model where the energy carrier is switched, e.g. from gas to electricity, is also considered. Exercise boundaries for the optimal stopping problem are estimated numerically for recent case studies of German buildings. Investment is generally not optimal at current energy prices and market conditions. Increasing correlation between gas and electricity prices erodes the value of technology switching. Comparative statics reveal that energy-efficiency investments become optimal at relatively lower energy prices as wealth, income, and savings behaviour increase, and portfolio drift and volatility decrease. Consequently, incentive to invest in retrofits is far more heterogeneous along wealth dimensions than standard discounted cash flow analyses suggest. An examination of retrofit subsidies demonstrates how free-riding by wealthier agents occurs when subsidies are not appropriately targeted. We show that the pursuit of economic efficiency in subsidy design might have regressive effects on the wealth distribution.

住宅节能改造进展缓慢，继续阻碍着能源转型。我们提出了一个不确定性条件下的最优投资模型，在该模型中，财富最大化的代理人可以选择延迟投资，以此来研究采用节能技术的激励机制。该模型考虑了随机投资组合收益和能源价格。我们还考虑了该模型的扩展，即能源载体的转换，例如从天然气到电力的转换。针对最近的德国建筑案例研究，对最优停止问题的练习边界进行了数值估算。在当前的能源价格和市场条件下，投资通常不是最优的。天然气和电力价格之间的相关性不断增加，削弱了技术转换的价值。比较静态分析表明，随着财富、收入和储蓄行为的增加，以及投资组合漂移和波动的减少，在能源价格相对较低的情况下，节能投资成为最优选择。因此，投资节能改造的动机在财富方面的异质性远远大于标准贴现现金流分析所显示的。对节能改造补贴的研究表明，如果补贴的目标不明确，较富裕的主体就会搭便车。我们表明，在补贴设计中追求经济效益可能会对财富分配产生倒退效应。

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引用次数: 0

Aligning common prosperity with sustainable development goals 3 and 7 through sustainable insurance 通过可持续保险使共同繁荣与可持续发展目标 3 和 7 相一致

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108033

Wei Zhou , Xuelian Li , Jyh-Horng Lin , Chuen-Ping Chang , Yujie Cai

This paper develops a capped-call option model to evaluate sustainable insurance for achieving common prosperity. It integrates policyholder protection (Sustainable Development Goal 3 (SDG 3)) and the cap-and-trade mechanism (SDG 7) in modeling the Gini coefficient, thereby connecting SDGs 3 and 7 with common prosperity. The main findings are as follows. Life insurance policies that prioritize saving features enhance policyholder protection (SDG 3) but can detract from common prosperity. This impact is magnified when the regulatory cap within the cap-and-trade scheme for carbon-intensive manufacturers becomes stricter. High investment risks for carbon-intensive manufacturers reduce policyholder protection but support common prosperity. A stricter cap-and-trade scheme (SDG 7) also reduces policyholder protection and contradicts common prosperity. This paper avoids concluding any inherent inconsistency between the SDGs and common prosperity, as our analysis is based on the structure-conduct-performance paradigm rather than a macro perspective. Policymakers should carefully balance objectives between SDG 3 and common prosperity to ensure that policies promoting individual security do not compromise broader societal well-being and economic equality, as outlined by the SDGs.

本文建立了一个上限-赎回期权模型，以评估实现共同繁荣的可持续保险。它将投保人保护（可持续发展目标 3）和限额交易机制（可持续发展目标 7）纳入基尼系数模型，从而将可持续发展目标 3 和 7 与共同繁荣联系起来。主要结论如下优先考虑储蓄功能的人寿保险政策可加强对投保人的保护（可持续发展目标 3），但会减损共同繁荣。当针对碳密集型制造商的限额与交易计划中的监管上限变得更加严格时，这种影响会被放大。碳密集型制造商的高投资风险降低了对投保人的保护，但支持了共同繁荣。更严格的总量控制与交易计划（可持续发展目标 7）也会减少对政策持有者的保护，并与共同繁荣相矛盾。本文避免得出可持续发展目标与共同繁荣之间存在内在矛盾的结论，因为我们的分析是基于结构-行为-绩效范式，而非宏观视角。决策者应谨慎平衡可持续发展目标 3 和共同繁荣之间的目标，以确保促进个人安全的政策不会损害可持续发展目标所概述的更广泛的社会福祉和经济平等。

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引用次数: 0

Domestic and foreign cap-and-trade regulations, carbon tariffs, and product tariffs during international trade conflicts: A multiproduct cost-efficiency analysis 国际贸易冲突中的国内外限额交易法规、碳关税和产品关税：多产品成本效益分析

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108034

Yonghong Zhao , Fu-Wei Huang , Ching-Hui Chang , Jyh-Jiuan Lin

This paper develops a down-and-out call option model with structural breaks to examine the effects of domestic environmental policies on carbon-intensive firms amid international trade conflicts. The findings reveal that stricter cap-and-trade regulations, carbon tariffs, and product tariffs exacerbate pollutant-specific diseconomies of scale, limit economies of scope, and reduce firm equity. The positive impact on pollutant-specific diseconomies of scale leads to higher pollution, hindering progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy) from a multiproduct cost-efficiency perspective. Meanwhile, the negative impact on economies of scope results in fewer products and pollutants, aligning with SDG 7 but conflicting with Sustainable Development Goal 8 (SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth), as the scope measure accounts for efficiency in both products and pollutants. Additionally, the negative impact on firm equity discourages progress toward both SDGs, especially during trade conflicts. In summary, environmental policies distinctly affect firm multiproduct cost efficiency and equity, particularly under varying trade conflict conditions.

本文建立了一个具有结构性中断的向下和向下看涨期权模型，以研究在国际贸易冲突中国内环境政策对碳密集型企业的影响。研究结果表明，更严格的总量控制与交易法规、碳关税和产品关税会加剧特定污染物的规模不经济，限制范围经济，并降低企业公平性。对特定污染物规模不经济的积极影响导致污染加剧，从多产品成本效益的角度来看，阻碍了可持续发展目标 7（SDG 7：负担得起的清洁能源）的实现。同时，对范围经济的负面影响导致产品和污染物减少，这与可持续发展目标 7 一致，但与可持续发展目标 8（可持续发展目标 8：体面工作和经济增长）相冲突，因为范围衡量标准同时考虑了产品和污染物的效率。此外，对企业公平性的负面影响阻碍了两个可持续发展目标的实现，尤其是在贸易冲突期间。总之，环境政策会明显影响企业的多产品成本效率和公平性，尤其是在不同的贸易冲突条件下。

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引用次数: 0