Energy Economics最新文献_第6页

Do decarbonization policies work? Evidence from a global meta-analysis 脱碳政策有效吗？来自全球荟萃分析的证据

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109145

Weimin Zhang , Benjamin K. Sovacool , Cutler Cleveland

Despite the increasing number of net-zero commitments worldwide, a significant gap remains between climate targets and their real-world implementation effects. This study conducts a systematic meta-analysis of 99 empirical studies, integrating more than 1000 standardized effect sizes across 37 decarbonization policy instruments worldwide. The results show that the distribution of samples across regions is highly uneven, with studies from the European Union (EU), the United States (US), Canada, and China accounting for most of the evidence base. We observe that market-based instruments, particularly carbon pricing and taxation measures, as well as several emissions trading systems (ETS) (e.g., the UK's carbon price support, Canada's ETS, the US cap-and-trade, and China's ETS), exhibit statistically significant emission reduction effects. Through multi-model comparisons, our analysis reveals that the average abatement effect of policies ranges between national emissions reductions of 10.5% and 12.6%. However, policies such as net energy metering, emissions performance standards, and the Swiss ETS show counterproductive mitigation effects, e.g. increases in emissions. Our interaction analysis shows that policy effectiveness depends highly on how well a given instrument aligns with sectoral characteristics. Energy efficiency policies perform well when applied within a single sector but perform very differently when used across sectors. Market-based mechanisms also display clear sectoral selectivity in their performance. This study not only reveals the variation in mitigation outcomes across policy instruments and sectors but also provides empirical evidence on how institutional conditions shape policy performance. The findings offer practical insights for building more effective, inclusive, and sustainable pathways toward decarbonization.

尽管全球净零排放承诺的数量不断增加，但气候目标与其实际实施效果之间仍存在巨大差距。本研究对99项实证研究进行了系统的荟萃分析，整合了全球37种脱碳政策工具的1000多个标准化效应量。结果表明，样本在不同地区的分布极不均匀，来自欧盟（EU）、美国（US）、加拿大和中国的研究占了大部分证据基础。我们观察到，以市场为基础的工具，特别是碳定价和税收措施，以及一些排放交易体系（ETS）（如英国的碳价支持、加拿大的ETS、美国的限额与交易和中国的ETS），在统计上显示出显著的减排效果。通过多模型比较，我们的分析表明，政策的平均减排效果在国家减排10.5%至12.6%之间。然而，净能源计量、排放绩效标准和瑞士排放交易体系等政策显示出适得其反的缓解效果，例如排放量增加。我们的相互作用分析表明，政策有效性在很大程度上取决于给定工具与部门特征的契合程度。能源效率政策在单一部门内应用效果良好，但在跨部门使用时效果大不相同。市场机制的表现也显示出明显的部门选择性。这项研究不仅揭示了不同政策工具和部门之间缓解结果的差异，而且还提供了关于制度条件如何影响政策绩效的经验证据。研究结果为构建更有效、包容和可持续的脱碳途径提供了实际见解。

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引用次数: 0

The unintended consequences of the area-based evaluation mechanism reform on green innovation: Evidence from highly polluting firms in China 基于区域的绿色创新评价机制改革的非预期后果：来自中国高污染企业的证据

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109140

Guifeng Shi, Yiyang Xi

In emerging markets characterized by heavy government intervention, government-dominated resource allocation plays an important role in cultivating sustainable firms. This paper investigates its effectiveness in fostering corporate green innovation by exploiting a quasi-experimental setting in China. We find that the government-led resource allocation reform known as the Area-based Evaluation Mechanism Reform detrimentally influences green innovation activities of highly polluting firms. We attribute the negative effect to the short-termism channel rather than the quiet life channel, as the reform drives firms toward short-termism, crowding out their incentives for long-term environmental sustainability. We also investigate how this reform interacts with local government incentives. Although the reform delivers short-term economic gains, these benefits do not justify the observed reductions in corporate green innovation, productivity, and innovative efficiency. Our empirical evidence highlights the unintended negative consequences of the policy instrument for sustainable development and the need to place greater focus on environmental targets in emerging markets.

在政府干预严重的新兴市场中，政府主导的资源配置对可持续企业的培育起着重要作用。本文利用中国的准实验环境来考察其在促进企业绿色创新方面的有效性。研究发现，政府主导的资源配置改革，即区域评价机制改革，对高污染企业的绿色创新活动产生了不利影响。我们将这种负面影响归因于短期主义渠道，而不是平静生活渠道，因为改革推动企业走向短期主义，挤出了它们对长期环境可持续性的激励。我们还研究了这一改革如何与地方政府的激励措施相互作用。尽管改革带来了短期的经济收益，但这些收益并不能证明观察到的企业绿色创新、生产力和创新效率的下降是合理的。我们的经验证据强调了可持续发展政策工具的意外负面影响，以及对新兴市场环境目标给予更多关注的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

Is flexible plug-in electric vehicle charging an attractive investment? Evidence from implicit discount rate estimation 灵活的插电式电动汽车充电是一项有吸引力的投资吗？来自隐性贴现率估计的证据

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109134

Brian Fowler , Steven van Passel , Pieter Valkering , Sebastien Lizin

As Europe phases out petroleum-powered vehicles, plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are expected to become the norm. However, realizing their full environmental and grid-stabilizing potential depends on drivers' willingness to adopt home chargers that support flexibility services, such as shifting charging to off-peak hours, responding to variable renewable energy supply, and selling stored electricity back to the grid. Using a discrete choice experiment with a sample of 769 Belgian drivers (representative by age, region, and gender), we structurally estimate an implicit discount rate (IDR) that captures drivers' willingness to trade upfront charger costs for future annualized electric-bill savings. This model simultaneously estimates preferences for specific flexibility-enhancing features, revealing which types of charging flexibility drivers are most willing to adopt. We find that the average driver applies an IDR of 28.5%, while a latent majority class comprising 79.86% of respondents—younger, better-educated drivers—applies a lower IDR of 23%. Since both of these IDRs are greater than the typical 4–5% financial market interest rate, we conclude that drivers apply a flexibility discount rate gap to PEV charging investment. Nonetheless, they also show a willingness to adopt solar charging, dynamic load management, and vehicle-to-home-and-grid charging, indicating potential for the majority of drivers to adopt flexible PEV chargers once financial barriers are addressed. Finally, our results show behavioral, demographic, and attitudinal characteristics that are associated with membership in the majority class—those more likely to invest in a flexible charger—highlighting pathways to bridge the discount rate gap and promote adoption of flexibility-enabling technologies.

随着欧洲逐步淘汰石油动力汽车，插电式电动汽车（pev）有望成为常态。然而，能否充分发挥其环保和电网稳定的潜力，取决于车主是否愿意采用支持灵活服务的家庭充电器，比如将充电转移到非高峰时段，响应可变的可再生能源供应，以及将储存的电力卖回电网。通过对769名比利时司机（按年龄、地区和性别具有代表性）的离散选择实验，我们从结构上估计了隐含贴现率（IDR），该贴现率反映了司机愿意用预付充电器成本来节省未来年度电费的意愿。该模型同时估计了对特定灵活性增强功能的偏好，揭示了哪种类型的充电灵活性驱动程序最愿意采用。我们发现，司机平均使用的印尼卢比比率为28.5%，而潜在的多数阶层，包括79.86%的受访者——年轻、受过良好教育的司机——使用的印尼卢比比率较低，为23%。由于这两个idr都大于典型的4-5%的金融市场利率，我们得出结论，司机对PEV充电投资采用弹性贴现率差距。尽管如此，他们也表示愿意采用太阳能充电、动态负载管理以及车辆到家庭和电网充电，这表明一旦解决了财务障碍，大多数司机都有可能采用灵活的电动汽车充电器。最后，我们的研究结果显示了与大多数阶层成员相关的行为、人口统计和态度特征——这些特征更有可能投资于灵活的充电器——突出了弥合折扣率差距和促进灵活技术采用的途径。

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引用次数: 0

Can photovoltaic poverty alleviation reduce multidimensional energy poverty? Evidence from 1928 counties in China 光伏扶贫能否减少多维度能源贫困？证据来自中国1928个县

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109135

Yang Zhou , Peixuan Li , Mengmin Sun , Wenjia Tan

Energy poverty, a complex multidimensional challenge, is a key obstacle to achieving sustainable development. This study provides the first nationwide causal assessment of China's Photovoltaic Poverty Alleviation (PVPA) policy on multidimensional energy poverty (MEP) using a balanced panel of 1928 counties from 2013 to 2020, covering approximately 90% of the nation's poor population. We assess the dynamic impacts of PVPA on MEP, measured through the multidimensional energy poverty index (MEPI), which captures dimensions such as cooking, lighting, and communication—by applying staggered difference-in-differences (DID), Callaway and Sant'Anna's heterogeneity-robust DID (CSDID), Honest-DID, and spatial DID methods. Results show that PVPA significantly alleviates MEP through two reinforcing pathways: first by increasing household income via PV electricity revenue and rural employment, and second by enabling clean energy substitution, reducing reliance on biomass and coal. Between 2013 and 2020, China's national MEPI declined by 23%, with stronger PVPA effects observed in low-coal, low-vegetation, and relocation-targeted areas, while regions with entrenched traditional energy use showed weak effects. Mechanism analysis confirms that both income enhancement and service improvement contribute to these gains. This study provides robust causal evidence linking renewable energy–driven poverty alleviation to MEP reduction, offering policy insights on embedding energy access targets in rural revitalization, tailoring interventions to regional contexts, and sustaining improvements through distributed energy storage and infrastructure upgrades.

能源贫困是一项复杂的多方面挑战，是实现可持续发展的主要障碍。本研究首次在全国范围内对光伏扶贫（PVPA）政策对多维能源贫困（MEP）的影响进行了因果评估，采用了一个平衡面板，从2013年到2020年，覆盖了约90%的全国贫困人口。我们通过多维能源贫困指数（MEPI）评估了PVPA对MEP的动态影响，该指数通过交错差中差（DID）、Callaway和Sant’anna的异质性稳健DID （CSDID）、Honest-DID和空间DID方法，捕捉了烹饪、照明和通信等维度。结果表明，PVPA通过两种强化途径显著缓解MEP：一是通过光伏发电收入和农村就业增加家庭收入，二是通过实现清洁能源替代，减少对生物质和煤炭的依赖。2013 - 2020年，中国全国MEPI下降了23%，其中低煤、低植被和搬迁目标地区的PVPA效应较强，而传统能源利用地区的影响较弱。机制分析证实，增加收入和改善服务都有助于这些收益。本研究提供了强有力的因果证据，将可再生能源驱动的扶贫与减少环境环境保护联系起来，为在乡村振兴中嵌入能源获取目标、根据地区情况量身定制干预措施以及通过分布式储能和基础设施升级持续改善提供政策见解。

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引用次数: 0

Unlocking financial inclusion through solar technology adoption in Malawi 通过在马拉维采用太阳能技术开启普惠金融

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109138

Congyi Dai , Ryan McCord , Katerina B. Beach , Andrea Mahieu , Thabbie Chilongo , Charles Jumbe , Pamela Jagger

Financial inclusion and energy access are development priorities in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), particularly in rural areas. Many households in SSA struggle to attain access to financial services including mobile money, bank accounts, and informal loans, which allow households to mitigate financial risks by relieving capital constraints and promoting investment and asset accumulation. At the same time, over 600 million people in SSA had no electricity access in 2023. Off-grid solar is considered one of the most cost-effective, feasible, and rapid solutions to provide energy access for rural households. Using data from a 1138-household two-wave quasi-experimental impact evaluation focused on solar technology adoption and impacts in rural Malawi, we explore the association between financial inclusion and solar technology adoption. We hypothesize that adoption of solar technologies catalyzes use of mobile money – a financial inclusion mechanism common throughout SSA. We find that households with solar home systems are 40 percentage points more likely to use mobile money, while those with standalone solar technologies are 32 percentage points more likely to do so. Through mediation analysis, we confirm that access to reliable phone charging is the main pathway connecting solar adoption and mobile money use. We also observe an approximately two-fold increase in participation in informal savings groups associated with solar adoption, likely through increased access to mobile money, which allows people to easily and securely pool finances. The connection between solar adoption and increased access to two key financial inclusion mechanisms suggests a win-win outcome for policymakers seeking to improve energy access and opportunities for economic growth through financial inclusion in rural Africa.

金融普惠和能源可及性是撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA），特别是农村地区的发展重点。SSA的许多家庭难以获得包括移动货币、银行账户和非正式贷款在内的金融服务，这些服务使家庭能够通过缓解资本限制和促进投资和资产积累来减轻金融风险。与此同时，到2023年，SSA有超过6亿人没有电力供应。离网太阳能被认为是为农村家庭提供能源的最具成本效益、最可行和最快速的解决方案之一。我们利用马拉维农村1138户家庭的两波准实验影响评估数据，探讨了金融普惠与太阳能技术采用之间的关系。我们假设太阳能技术的采用催化了移动货币的使用——这是整个SSA普遍存在的一种金融包容性机制。我们发现，拥有太阳能家庭系统和独立太阳能技术的家庭使用移动支付的几率分别高出40%和32%。通过中介分析，我们确认获得可靠的手机充电是连接太阳能采用和移动货币使用的主要途径。我们还观察到，与采用太阳能相关的非正式储蓄团体的参与人数增加了大约两倍，这可能是通过增加移动货币的使用，这使人们能够轻松、安全地汇集资金。采用太阳能与增加两种关键金融普惠机制之间的联系，为寻求改善非洲农村能源获取和经济增长机会的政策制定者带来了双赢的结果。

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引用次数: 0

When carbon policy meets sulfur policy: How environmental policy portfolios enhance green productivity in Chinese cities 当碳政策与硫政策相遇：环境政策组合如何提高中国城市绿色生产力

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109139

Bin Tan , Ning Zhang

Focusing on the intersection of carbon and sulfur control policies in Chinese cities, the effect of coupled environmental regulations on green productivity is examined in this study. We exploit a quasi-natural experiment from 2006 to 2019, using the Low-Carbon City Pilot (LCCP) program in conjunction with sulfur dioxide (SO₂) reduction mandates. Employing the difference-in-differences (DID) technique, we discover that the LCCP program results in a 3.5% improvement in green productivity. Approximately half of this effect is attributable to the SO₂ reduction targets. These results underscore the importance of policy interaction in shaping environmental and economic outcomes. Mechanism analysis reveals heterogeneous transmission channels. The LCCP program improves green productivity primarily by reducing energy input. In contrast, SO₂ reduction targets are more effective in promoting end-of-pipe pollution control technologies. Importantly, the joint policy implementation does not hinder economic growth. Our findings contribute to the literature on environmental policy design under multi-pollutant frameworks. In the context of China's carbon neutrality agenda, they highlight the value of coordinated policy portfolios.

本文以中国城市碳硫控制政策交叉点为研究对象，考察了环境规制耦合对绿色生产力的影响。我们利用2006年至2019年的准自然实验，将低碳城市试点（LCCP）项目与二氧化硫（SO2）减排任务结合起来。采用差异中的差异（DID）技术，我们发现LCCP计划导致绿色生产力提高3.5%。大约一半的影响可归因于二氧化硫减排目标。这些结果强调了政策互动在形成环境和经济成果方面的重要性。机理分析揭示了传输通道的异质性。LCCP项目主要通过减少能源投入来提高绿色生产力。相比之下，SO2减排目标在推广管道末端污染控制技术方面更为有效。重要的是，联合政策的实施不会阻碍经济增长。我们的研究结果为多污染物框架下的环境政策设计提供了文献依据。在中国碳中和议程的背景下，它们突出了协调政策组合的价值。

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引用次数: 0

The income threshold of household carbon emissions: Nonlinear growth and decoupling challenges 家庭碳排放的收入门槛：非线性增长与脱钩挑战

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109137

Yuedong Xiao , Wenling Liu , Lei Gao , Fengtai Zhang , Yulin Zhu , Xueyang Wang

Decoupling carbon emissions from economic growth is a key pathway to address climate change. However, most studies overlook the behavioral mechanisms behind the non-linear growth of household emissions and the challenges this non-linearity implies for decoupling. This study advances a consumption-transition model related to carbon emissions. The theoretical model suggests that once income exceeds a critical threshold, households shift from basic-needs spending to symbolic consumption and may imitate consumption patterns of higher-income households. This change can sharply increase demand for carbon-intensive goods and alter the decoupling status. Using China Family Panel Studies data for 2014–2022, we empirically identify an income threshold in household emissions, namely a carbon emission growth turning point (CEGTP), after which emissions rise more rapidly with income. Sensitivity analysis indicates that emission patterns remain stable within ±15% of the CEGTP, enabling robust comparison between high- and low-income households. We find that more than half of urban households have disposable income below the CEGTP, which may imply a significant risk of future emission increases. Consistent with the theoretical model, labor-dominated households exhibit a higher income elasticity of emissions than households dominated by older individuals or children, because working-age adults may be more prone and able to engage in symbolic consumption. The higher elasticity is primarily driven by discretionary spending, such as travel, rather than necessities like food, residential energy, or clothing. Thus, the key to achieving decoupling is to apply targeted policies to steer incremental consumption onto a low-carbon path.

将碳排放与经济增长脱钩是应对气候变化的关键途径。然而，大多数研究忽视了家庭排放非线性增长背后的行为机制，以及这种非线性对解耦所带来的挑战。本研究提出了一个与碳排放相关的消费转型模型。理论模型表明，一旦收入超过一个临界阈值，家庭就会从基本需求支出转向象征性消费，并可能模仿高收入家庭的消费模式。这种变化可能会大幅增加对碳密集型产品的需求，并改变脱钩状态。利用中国家庭面板研究2014-2022年的数据，我们实证地确定了家庭碳排放的收入阈值，即碳排放增长拐点（CEGTP），在此之后，碳排放随收入增长更快。敏感性分析表明，排放模式在CEGTP的±15%范围内保持稳定，从而可以对高收入和低收入家庭进行有力的比较。我们发现，超过一半的城市家庭可支配收入低于CEGTP，这可能意味着未来排放增加的风险很大。与理论模型一致，劳动力占主导地位的家庭比老年人或儿童占主导地位的家庭表现出更高的收入弹性排放，因为工作年龄的成年人可能更倾向于也更有能力从事象征性消费。较高的弹性主要是由旅游等可自由支配的支出推动的，而不是食品、住宅能源或服装等必需品。因此，实现脱钩的关键是实施有针对性的政策，引导增量消费走上低碳道路。

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引用次数: 0

How does urban agglomeration contribute to achieving carbon reduction targets? Evidence from an HSR-weighting spatial DID approach 城市群如何促进碳减排目标的实现？来自hsr加权空间DID方法的证据

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109136

Ying Wang , Honghong Wei , Andreas Kontoleon

Urban agglomeration (UA), as a model of regional integration, provides a platform for advancing sustainable urban development and carbon emission reduction. Treating the urban agglomeration implementation in China as a quasi-natural experiment, we use the high-speed rail (HSR)-weighting spatial difference-in-differences (SDID) method to examine both the direct and indirect effects of UA on carbon emission reduction. Using a balanced panel data set of 195 cities from 2004 to 2019 in China, our empirical results show that UA directly impacts carbon emission abatement in core cities and indirectly affects neighboring cities through inter-city HSR connections. Furthermore, the mechanism analysis suggests that: (1) UA reduces carbon emissions by upgrading industrial structures, generating a “borrowed-size” effect that promotes structural optimization and reduces carbon emissions in neighboring cities; (2) UA reduces carbon emissions by decreasing energy intensity, but the resulting siphon effect increases energy consumption in neighboring cities; (3) UA promotes local carbon emission reduction by stimulating technological innovation and diversification agglomeration, but does not influence carbon emissions in neighboring cities through these mechanisms. These findings provide useful insights into how UA and inter-city HSR facilitate the transition towards a low-carbon society.

城市群作为区域一体化的典范，为推进城市可持续发展和碳减排提供了平台。本文将中国城市群实施作为准自然实验，采用高铁加权空间差中差（SDID）方法考察了城市群对碳减排的直接和间接影响。利用2004 - 2019年中国195个城市的均衡面板数据，我们的实证结果表明，UA直接影响核心城市的碳减排，并通过城际高铁连接间接影响周边城市的碳减排。机制分析表明：(1)UA通过产业结构升级减少碳排放，产生“借用规模”效应，促进相邻城市结构优化，降低碳排放；(2) UA通过降低能源强度来减少碳排放，但由此产生的虹吸效应增加了周边城市的能源消耗；(3) UA通过刺激技术创新和多元化集聚促进本地碳减排，但不通过这些机制影响周边城市的碳排放。这些发现为UA和城际高铁如何促进向低碳社会的过渡提供了有用的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Effects of basin ecological compensation policies in China: Insights from policy design differences 中国流域生态补偿政策的效果：来自政策设计差异的洞察

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109132

Lei Zhou , Shaoxin Hong , Siyan Su

There are two types of Basin Ecological Compensation Policies (BECP) in China: a formal policy initiated by the central government in the Xin'an River Basin and an informal policy organized by local governments in the Wei River Basin. We use a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to identify and compare the effects of these two policy types. We find that the BECP in the Xin'an River Basin significantly reduces enterprises' water pollutant emissions but also decreases Total Factor Productivity (TFP), whereas the BECP in the Wei River Basin has no significant effect. In addition, enterprises in the Xin'an River Basin experience reduced output and increased investment in cleaner production practices, which serve as the main channels through which water pollutant emissions decline. We further show that the economic losses borne by upstream regions exceed the compensation they receive, indicating that the compensation funds are insufficient. Finally, heterogeneity analyses reveal that the effectiveness of the BECP depends on factors such as adjacency to provincial boundaries, river length within a county, the number of industrial enterprises, and enterprise tax levels. These findings provide useful insights for the broader application of BECPs and for negotiations over compensation funding.

中国的流域生态补偿政策主要有两种类型：一种是中央政府在新安江流域发起的正式政策，另一种是渭河流域地方政府组织的非正式政策。我们使用差异中的差异（DID）方法来识别和比较这两种策略类型的效果。研究发现，新安河流域的BECP显著降低了企业的水污染物排放，但也降低了全要素生产率（TFP），而渭河流域的BECP没有显著影响。此外，新安河流域企业在清洁生产实践方面的产出减少，投资增加，这是水污染物排放下降的主要渠道。研究进一步表明，上游地区所遭受的经济损失超过了所获得的补偿，表明补偿资金不足。最后，异质性分析表明，省际边界邻近程度、县域河流长度、工业企业数量和企业税收水平等因素对城市经济效益的影响显著。这些发现为becp的更广泛应用和赔偿资金的谈判提供了有用的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the effect of climate policy uncertainty on corporate carbon cost leadership strategy: Evidence from China 评估气候政策不确定性对企业碳成本领先战略的影响：来自中国的证据

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109118

Zhongzhu Chu , Weijie Tan , Boru Ren , Zhiyi Xia

Frequent extreme climate events have heightened climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and incorporating the social cost of carbon has become a key element for countries seeking to improve their institutions in response to climate risks. Focusing on corporate efforts, this study innovatively constructs a carbon cost leadership strategy (CCLS) index for Chinese listed companies from 2010 to 2024 using a text-based machine learning approach. Drawing on institutional theory, we examine the relationship between CPU and firms' adoption of CCLS. Our findings indicate that CPU significantly inhibits the implementation of CCLS, primarily because CPU increases firms' operational risks and undermines firms' capacity to respond to climate regulations. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that this negative effect is more pronounced for state-owned enterprises, firms with low climate risk perception, those in low carbon-exposure and non-technology-intensive industries, and firms located in regions with weak public–government climate engagement. This study enriches the understanding of the social impacts of climate policy from the perspective of corporate carbon cost management and provides new insights for emerging economies to improve their social cost of carbon assessment systems and enhance firms' climate response capabilities.

频繁的极端气候事件加剧了气候政策的不确定性（CPU），纳入碳的社会成本已成为寻求改善其应对气候风险制度的国家的关键因素。本研究以企业为研究对象，采用基于文本的机器学习方法，创新性地构建了2010 - 2024年中国上市公司碳成本领先战略（CCLS）指数。利用制度理论，我们考察了中央集权与企业采用CCLS之间的关系。我们的研究结果表明，CPU显著抑制了CCLS的实施，主要是因为CPU增加了企业的运营风险，削弱了企业应对气候法规的能力。异质性分析表明，国有企业、低气候风险认知企业、低碳暴露和非技术密集型行业企业以及公共政府气候参与较弱地区的企业的负面影响更为明显。本研究从企业碳成本管理的角度丰富了对气候政策社会影响的认识，为新兴经济体完善碳社会成本评估体系、提高企业应对气候变化能力提供了新的思路。

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