Epidemiology最新文献

Background: Intervention packages may result in a greater public health impact than single interventions. Understanding the separate impact of each component on the overall package effectiveness can improve intervention delivery.

Methods: We adapted an approach to evaluate the effects of a time-varying intervention package in a network-randomized study. In some network-randomized studies, only a subset of participants in exposed networks receive the intervention themselves. The spillover effect contrasts average potential outcomes if a person was not exposed to themselves under intervention in the network versus no intervention in a control network. We estimated the effects of components of the intervention package in HIV Prevention Trials Network 037, a Phase III network-randomized HIV prevention trial among people who inject drugs and their risk networks using marginal structural models to adjust for time-varying confounding. The index participant in an intervention network received a peer education intervention initially at baseline, then boosters at 6 and 12 months. All participants were followed to ascertain HIV risk behaviors.

Results: There were 560 participants with at least one follow-up visit, 48% of whom were randomized to the intervention, and 1,598 participant visits were observed. The spillover effect of the boosters in the presence of initial peer education training was a 39% rate reduction (rate ratio = 0.61; 95% confidence interval = 0.43, 0.87).

Conclusions: These methods will be useful for evaluating intervention packages in studies with network features.

Background: We evaluated whether participants in the landmark Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial represent US adults aged ≥40 with diabetes.

Methods: Using the nationally representative 2017-2020 prepandemic National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, we made operational definitions of ACCORD eligibility criteria. We calculated the percentage of individuals aged ≥40 with diabetes and HbA1c ≥ 6.0% or ≥ 7.5% who met operational ACCORD eligibility criteria.

Results: Applying survey sampling weights to 715 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey participants aged ≥40 with diabetes and HbA1c ≥ 6.0% (representing 29,717,406 individuals), 12% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 8%, 18%) met the operational ACCORD eligibility criteria. Restricting to HbA1c ≥ 7.5%, 39% (95% CI = 28%, 51%) of respondents met the operational ACCORD eligibility criteria.

Conclusions: ACCORD represented a minority of US middle-aged and older adults with diabetes. Given the differential risk profile between ACCORD participants and the general population with diabetes, extrapolating the trial findings may not be appropriate.

Background: The largest case-control study (Interphone study) investigating glioma risk related to mobile phone use showed a J-shaped relationship with reduced relative risks for moderate use and a 40% increased relative risk among the 10% heaviest regular mobile phone users, using a categorical risk model based on deciles of lifetime duration of use among ever regular users.

Methods: We conducted Monte Carlo simulations examining whether the reported estimates are compatible with an assumption of no effect of mobile phone use on glioma risk when the various forms of biases present in the Interphone study are accounted for. Four scenarios of sources of error in self-reported mobile phone use were considered, along with selection bias. Input parameters used for simulations were those obtained from Interphone validation studies on reporting accuracy and from using a nonresponse questionnaire.

Results: We found that the scenario simultaneously modeling systematic and random reporting errors produced a J-shaped relationship perfectly compatible with the observed relationship from the main Interphone study with a simulated spurious increased relative risk among heaviest users (odds ratio = 1.91) compared with never regular users. The main determinant for producing this J shape was higher reporting error variance in cases compared with controls, as observed in the validation studies. Selection bias contributed to the reduced risks as well.

Conclusions: Some uncertainty remains, but the evidence from the present simulation study shifts the overall assessment to making it less likely that heavy mobile phone use is causally related to an increased glioma risk.

Background: Maternal folic acid intake has been associated with decreased risk for neurodevelopmental disorders including autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Genetic differences in folate metabolism could explain some inconsistencies. To our knowledge, newborn folate concentrations remain unexamined.

Methods: We measured folate in archived newborn dried blood spots of children from the CHARGE (Childhood Autism Risks from Genetics and the Environment) case-control study who were clinically confirmed at 24-60 months to have ASD (n = 380), developmental delay (n = 128), or typical development (n = 247). We quantified monthly folic acid intake from maternally-reported supplements and cereals consumed during pregnancy and 3 months prior. We assessed associations of newborn folate with maternal folic acid intake and with ASD or developmental delay using regression. We stratified estimates across maternal and child MTHFR genotypes.

Results: Among typically developing children, maternal folic acid intake in prepregnancy and each pregnancy month and prepregnancy prenatal vitamin intake were positively associated with newborn folate. Among children with ASD, prenatal vitamin intake in pregnancy months 2-9 was positively associated with newborn folate. Among children with developmental delay, maternal folic acid and prenatal vitamins during the first pregnancy month were positively associated with neonatal folate. Associations differed by MTHFR genotype. Overall, neonatal folate was not associated with ASD or developmental delay, though we observed associations with ASD in children with the MTHFR 677 TT genotype (odds ratio: 1.76, 95% CI = 1.19, 2.62; P for interaction = 0.08).

Conclusion: Maternal prenatal folic acid intake was associated with neonatal folate at different times across neurodevelopmental groups. Neonatal folate was not associated with reduced ASD risk. MTHFR genotypes modulated these relationships.

Background: Artificial light at night, a well-recognized circadian clock disrupter, causes disturbances in endocrine homeostasis. However, the association of artificial light at night with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is still unknown. This study examines the effects of outdoor artificial light at night on sex hormones, glucose homeostasis markers, and PCOS prevalence in Anhui Province, China.

Methods: We recruited 20,633 women of reproductive age from Anhui Medical University Reproductive Medicine Center. PCOS was diagnosed according to Rotterdam criteria. We estimated long-term (previous year) and short-term (previous month) artificial light at night values for residential addresses using 500 m resolution satellite imagery. We fitted multivariable models, using both linear and logistic regression, to estimate the association of artificial light at night with sex hormones, glucose homeostasis markers, and PCOS prevalence.

Results: Both long-term and short-term exposure to outdoor artificial light at night were negatively associated with follicle-stimulating hormone and luteinizing hormone levels, while positively associated with testosterone, fasting insulin, homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance, and homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance-β levels. The second-highest quintile of artificial light at night was associated with increased PCOS prevalence (odds ratio [OR long-term ] = 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.2, 1.6 and OR short-term = 1.3; 95% CI = 1.1, 1.5) compared with the lowest quintile. In addition, prevalence of PCOS was linearly associated with long-term exposure to artificial light at night, but nonlinearly associated with short-term exposure. This association was more evident in younger, obese or overweight, moderately educated, rural women, and for the summer and fall seasons.

Conclusion: Outdoor artificial light at night may be a novel risk factor for PCOS.

Background: "Scarring in utero" posits that populations exposed to injurious stressors yield birth cohorts that live shorter lives than expected from history. This argument implies a positive historical association between period life expectancy (i.e., average age at death in year t) and cohort life expectancy (i.e., average lifespan of persons born in year t). Tests of the argument have not produced consistent results and appear confounded by autocorrelation, migration, and access to medical care. Here we test whether, as predicted by scarring in utero, sex-specific period and cohort life expectancy appear positively related among Swedes born from 1751 through 1800. If scarring has ever influenced longevity, we should detect signals of its effects in these cohorts because, unlike other populations with known life span, they aged in place and unlikely benefitted from increased access to efficacious medical care.

Methods: We use Box-Jenkins methods to control autocorrelation and measure associations.

Results: Contrary to the scarring hypothesis, we find an inverse association between period and cohort life expectancy. Our findings imply that, among males, variation in injurious stress on the population predicted changes in cohort life span ranging from a gain of approximately 67 weeks to a loss of about 45 weeks of life and among females from a gain of approximately 68 weeks to a loss of about 38 weeks of life.

Conclusion: Epidemiologists trying to understand and explain temporal variation in cohort life expectancy should view the scarring argument with greater skepticism than currently found in the literature.

Background: Several observational studies have described an inverse association between cancer diagnosis and subsequent dementia risk. Multiple biologic mechanisms and potential biases have been proposed in attempts to explain this association. One proposed explanation is the opposite expression of Pin1 in cancer and dementia, and we use this explanation and potential drug target to illustrate the required assumptions and potential sources of bias for inferring an effect of Pin1 on dementia risk from analyses measuring cancer diagnosis as a proxy for Pin1 expression.

Methods: We used data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort. We estimate the association between cancer diagnosis (as a proxy for Pin1) and subsequent dementia diagnosis using two different proxy methods and with confounding and censoring for death addressed with inverse probability weights. We estimate and compare the complements of a weighted Kaplan-Meier survival estimator at 20 years of follow-up.

Results: Out of 3634 participants, 899 (25%) were diagnosed with cancer, of whom 53 (6%) had dementia, and 567 (63%) died. Among those without cancer, 15% (411) were diagnosed with dementia, and 667 (24%) died over follow-up. Depending on the confounding and selection bias control, and the way in which cancer was used as a time-varying proxy exposure, the risk ratio for dementia diagnosis ranged from 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.49, 0.95) to 1.1 (95% CI = 0.79, 1.3).

Conclusion: Being explicit about the underlying mechanism of interest is key to maximizing what we can learn from this cancer-dementia association given available or readily collected data, and to defining, detecting, and preventing potential biases.