Epidemiology最新文献

Background: Mainland China experienced a major surge in SARS-CoV-2 infections in December 2022-January 2023, but its impact on mortality was unclear given the underreporting of coronavirus disease 2019 deaths.

Methods: Using obituary data from the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE), we estimated the excess death rate among senior CAE members by taking the difference between the observed rate of all-cause death in December 2022-January 2023 and the expected rate for the same months in 2017-2022, by age groups. We used this to extrapolate an estimate of the number of excess deaths in December 2022-January 2023 among urban dwellers in Mainland China.

Results: In December 2022-January 2023, we estimated excess death rates of 0.94 per 100 persons (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.54, 3.16) in CAE members aged 80-84 years, 3.95 (95% CI = 0.50, 7.84) in 85-89 years, 10.35 (95% CI = 3.59, 17.71) in 90-94 years, and 16.88 (95% CI = 0.00, 34.62) in 95 years and older. Using our baseline assumptions, this extrapolated to 917,000 (95% CI = 425,000, 1.45 million) excess deaths among urban dwellers in Mainland China, much higher than the 81,000 in-hospital deaths officially reported from 9 December 2022 to 30 January 2023.

Conclusions: As in many jurisdictions, we estimate that the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic had a much wider impact on mortality than what was officially documented in Mainland China.

Outcome under-ascertainment, characterized by the incomplete identification or reporting of cases, poses a substantial challenge in epidemiologic research. While capture-recapture methods can estimate unknown case numbers, their role in estimating exposure effects in observational studies is not well established. This paper presents an ascertainment probability weighting framework that integrates capture-recapture and propensity score weighting. We propose a nonparametric estimator of effects on binary outcomes that combines exposure propensity scores with data from two conditionally independent outcome measurements to simultaneously adjust for confounding and under-ascertainment. Demonstrating its practical application, we apply the method to estimate the relationship between health care work and coronavirus disease 2019 testing in a Swedish region. We find that ascertainment probability weighting greatly influences the estimated association compared to conventional inverse probability weighting, underscoring the importance of accounting for under-ascertainment in studies with limited outcome data coverage. We conclude with practical guidelines for the method's implementation, discussing its strengths, limitations, and suitable scenarios for application.

Sometimes treatment effects are absent in a subgroup of the population. For example, penicillin has no effect on severe symptoms in individuals infected by resistant Staphylococcus aureus , and codeine has no effect on pain in individuals with certain polymorphisms in the CYP2D6 enzyme. Subgroups where a treatment is ineffective are often called negative control populations or placebo groups. They are leveraged to detect bias in different disciplines. Here we present formal criteria that justify the use of negative control populations to rule out unmeasured confounding and mechanistic (direct) causal effects. We further argue that negative control populations, satisfying our formal conditions, are available in many settings, spanning from clinical studies of infectious diseases to epidemiologic studies of public health interventions. Negative control populations can also be used to rule out placebo effects in unblinded randomized experiments. As a case study, we evaluate the effect of mobile stroke unit dispatches on functional outcomes at discharge in individuals with suspected stroke, using data from a large trial. Our analysis supports the hypothesis that mobile stroke units improve functional outcomes in these individuals.

Background: The United States is in the midst of an opioid overdose epidemic; 28.3 per 100,000 people died of opioid overdose in 2020. Simulation models can help understand and address this complex, dynamic, and nonlinear social phenomenon. Using the HEALing Communities Study, aimed at reducing opioid overdoses, and an agent-based model, Simulation of Community-Level Overdose Prevention Strategy, we simulated increases in buprenorphine initiation and retention and naloxone distribution aimed at reducing overdose deaths by 40% in New York Counties.

Methods: Our simulations covered 2020-2022. The eight counties contrasted urban or rural and high and low baseline rates of opioid use disorder treatment. The model calibrated agent characteristics for opioid use and use disorder, treatments and treatment access, and fatal and nonfatal overdose. Modeled interventions included increased buprenorphine initiation and retention, and naloxone distribution. We predicted a decrease in the rate of fatal opioid overdose 1 year after intervention, given various modeled intervention scenarios.

Results: Counties required unique combinations of modeled interventions to achieve a 40% reduction in overdose deaths. Assuming a 200% increase in naloxone from current levels, high baseline treatment counties achieved a 40% reduction in overdose deaths with a simultaneous 150% increase in buprenorphine initiation. In comparison, low baseline treatment counties required 250-300% increases in buprenorphine initiation coupled with 200-1000% increases in naloxone, depending on the county.

Conclusions: Results demonstrate the need for tailored county-level interventions to increase service utilization and reduce overdose deaths, as the modeled impact of interventions depended on the county's experience with past and current interventions.

Although many epidemiologic studies focus on point identification, it is also possible to partially identify causal effects under consistency and the data alone. However, the literature on the so-called "assumption-free" bounds has focused on settings with time-fixed exposures. We describe assumption-free bounds for the effects of both static and dynamic sustained interventions. To provide intuition for the width of the bounds, we also discuss a mathematical connection between assumption-free bounds and clone-censor-weight approaches to causal effect estimation. The bounds, which are often wide in practice, can provide important information about the degree to which causal analyses depend on unverifiable assumptions made by investigators.

Understanding the incidence of disease is often crucial for public policy decision-making, as observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimating incidence is challenging, however, when the definition of incidence relies on tests that imperfectly measure disease, as in the case when assays with variable performance are used to detect the SARS-CoV-2 virus. To our knowledge, there are no pragmatic methods to address the bias introduced by the performance of labs in testing for the virus. In the setting of a longitudinal study, we developed a maximum likelihood estimation-based approach to estimate laboratory performance-adjusted incidence using the expectation-maximization algorithm. We constructed confidence intervals (CIs) using both bootstrapped-based and large-sample interval estimator approaches. We evaluated our methods through extensive simulation and applied them to a real-world study (TrackCOVID), where the primary goal was to determine the incidence of and risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the San Francisco Bay Area from July 2020 to March 2021. Our simulations demonstrated that our method converged rapidly with accurate estimates under a variety of scenarios. Bootstrapped-based CIs were comparable to the large-sample estimator CIs with a reasonable number of incident cases, shown via a simulation scenario based on the real TrackCOVID study. In more extreme simulated scenarios, the coverage of large-sample interval estimation outperformed the bootstrapped-based approach. Results from the application to the TrackCOVID study suggested that assuming perfect laboratory test performance can lead to an inaccurate inference of the incidence. Our flexible, pragmatic method can be extended to a variety of disease and study settings.

Background: Although the indoor environment has been proposed to be associated with childhood sleep health, to our knowledge no study has investigated the association between home renovation and childhood sleep problems.

Methods: The study included 186,470 children aged 6-18 years from the National Chinese Children Health Study (2012-2018). We measured childhood sleeping problems via the Chinese version of the Sleep Disturbance Scale for Children (C-SDSC). Information on home renovation exposure within the recent 2 years was collected via parent report. We estimated associations between home renovation and various sleeping problems, defined using both continuous and categorized (binary) C-SDSC t-scores, using generalized mixed models. We fitted models with city as a random effect variable, and other covariates as fixed effects.

Results: Out of the overall participants, 89,732 (48%) were exposed to recent home renovations. Compared to the unexposed group, children exposed to home renovations had higher odds of total sleep disorder (odd ratios [OR] = 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.2, 1.4). Associations varied when we considered different types of home renovation materials. Children exposed to multiple types of home renovation had higher odds of sleeping problems. We observed similar findings when considering continuous C-SDSC t-scores. Additionally, sex and age of children modified the associations of home renovation exposure with some of the sleeping problem subtypes.

Conclusions: We found that home renovation was associated with higher odds of having sleeping problems and that they varied when considering the type of renovation, cumulative exposure, sex, and age differences.

Background: We describe the use of Apisensr, a web-based application that can be used to implement quantitative bias analysis for misclassification, selection bias, and unmeasured confounding. We apply Apisensr using an example of exposure misclassification bias due to use of self-reported body mass index (BMI) to define obesity status in an analysis of the relationship between obesity and diabetes.

Methods: We used publicly available data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The analysis consisted of: (1) estimating bias parameter values (sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value) for self-reported obesity by sex, age, and race-ethnicity compared to obesity defined by measured BMI, and (2) using Apisensr to adjust for exposure misclassification.

Results: The discrepancy between self-reported and measured obesity varied by demographic group (sensitivity range: 75%-89%; specificity range: 91%-99%). Using Apisensr for quantitative bias analysis, there was a clear pattern in the results: the relationship between obesity and diabetes was underestimated using self-report in all age, sex, and race-ethnicity categories compared to measured obesity. For example, in non-Hispanic White men aged 40-59 years, prevalence odds ratios for diabetes were 3.06 (95% confidence inerval = 1.78, 5.30) using self-reported BMI and 4.11 (95% confidence interval = 2.56, 6.75) after bias analysis adjusting for misclassification.

Conclusion: Apisensr is an easy-to-use, web-based Shiny app designed to facilitate quantitative bias analysis. Our results also provide estimates of bias parameter values that can be used by other researchers interested in examining obesity defined by self-reported BMI.