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Effect of diversified performance metrics and climate model weighting on global and regional trend patterns of precipitation and temperature 不同性能指标和气候模式加权对全球和区域降水和温度趋势格局的影响
IF 1.4 4区 社会学 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-11-29 DOI: 10.3112/erdkunde.2019.04.04
Christoph Ring, F. Pollinger, Luzia Keupp, Irena Kaspar‐Ott, E. Hertig, J. Jacobeit, H. Paeth
Summary : A main task of climate research is to provide estimates about future climate change under global warming conditions. The main tools for this are dynamic climate models. However, different models vary quantitatively - and in some aspects even qualitatively - in the climate change signals they produce. In this study, this uncertainty about future climate is tackled by the evaluation of climate models in a standardized setup of multiple regions and variables based on four sophisticated metrics. Weighting models based on their performance will help to increase the confidence in climate model projections. Global and regional climate models are evaluated for 50-year trends of simulated seasonal precipita - tion and temperature. The results of these evaluations are compared, and their impact on probabilistic projections of precipitation and temperature when used as bases of weighting factors is analyzed. This study is performed on two spatial scales: seven globally distributed large study areas and eight sub-regions of the Mediterranean area. Altogether, over 62 global climate models with 159 transient simulations for precipitation and 119 for temperature from four emissions sce - narios are evaluated against the ERA -20C reanalysis. The results indicate large agreement between three out of four met - rics. The fourth one addresses a new climate model characteristic that shows no correlation to any other ranking. Overall, especially temperature shows a high agreement to the reference data set while precipitation offers better potential for weighting. Because of the differences being rather small, the metrics are better suited for performance rankings than as weighting factors. Finally, there is conformity with previous model evaluation studies: both the model performance and the implications of weighting for probabilistic climate projections strictly depend
摘要:气候研究的一项主要任务是提供全球变暖条件下未来气候变化的估计。这方面的主要工具是动态气候模型。然而,不同的模型在产生的气候变化信号方面存在数量上的差异,在某些方面甚至是质量上的差异。在这项研究中,通过在基于四个复杂指标的多个区域和变量的标准化设置中评估气候模型来解决未来气候的这种不确定性。根据模型的表现对其进行加权将有助于提高对气候模型预测的信心。全球和区域气候模型针对模拟的季节性降水量和温度的50年趋势进行了评估。比较了这些评估的结果,并分析了它们在用作加权因子基础时对降水和温度概率预测的影响。这项研究在两个空间尺度上进行:七个全球分布的大型研究区域和八个地中海地区的亚区域。根据ERA-20C再分析,总共评估了62多个全球气候模型,其中159个是降水瞬态模拟,119个是四次排放的温度瞬态模拟。结果表明,四分之三的受访者之间存在很大的一致性。第四个涉及一个新的气候模型特征,该特征与任何其他排名都没有相关性。总的来说,特别是温度显示出与参考数据集的高度一致,而降水提供了更好的加权潜力。由于差异很小,这些指标更适合用于绩效排名,而不是作为权重因素。最后,与之前的模型评估研究一致:模型性能和概率气候预测加权的含义都严格取决于
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引用次数: 1
Geographical proximity vs network tie: innovation of equipment manufacturing firms in Shanghai, China 地理邻近与网络联系:中国上海装备制造企业的创新
IF 1.4 4区 社会学 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-09-30 DOI: 10.3112/erdkunde.2019.03.03
Lanqing. Lin, Fenglong Wang
Recent theoretical arguments and empirical studies in economic geography have emphasized the importance of both geographical proximity and network tie for firm innovation. However, few studies have empirically assessed the effects of these two together. This paper examines and compares the effects of geographical proximity and network tie on innovation based on a unique dataset of equipment manufacturing firms in Shanghai, China. An extended spatial economic model is adopted for this analysis. We find evidence that network ties rather than geographical proximity promote firm innovation. This finding is different from previous studies using region as unit of analysis and suggests that geography and network may play different roles at different spatial scales. Moreover, we demonstrate that both internal factors such as firm's expenditures on R&D and human capital and external factors such as government expenditure on R&D and import of foreign technologies are important for innovation of Chinese equipment manufacturing firms.
近年来经济地理学的理论争论和实证研究都强调了地理邻近性和网络联系对企业创新的重要性。然而,很少有研究对这两者的影响进行实证评估。本文以上海装备制造业企业为研究对象,分析和比较了地理邻近性和网络联系对创新的影响。采用扩展的空间经济模型进行分析。我们发现了网络联系而不是地理邻近促进企业创新的证据。这一发现不同于以往以区域为分析单位的研究,表明地理和网络在不同的空间尺度上可能起着不同的作用。此外,我们还证明了企业研发支出、人力资本支出等内部因素和政府研发支出、国外技术进口等外部因素对我国装备制造企业创新的影响。
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引用次数: 6
Advancing the structured analysis of regional innovation in China. Integrating new perspectives in a comprehensive approach. 推进中国区域创新的结构化分析。将新观点纳入综合方法。
IF 1.4 4区 社会学 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-09-30 DOI: 10.3112/erdkunde.2019.03.02
Ingo Liefner, H. Kroll
Acknowledging the obvious diversity in development trajectories of Chinese regions, this paper seeks to address the prevalent lack of complexity in comparative studies on that country’s regional innovation systems and innovation outcomes. It argues that the prevalent dichotomy between rich yet idiosyncratic case studies and one-dimensional quantitative benchmarking of 'technological capacities' limits the explanatory and predictive power of existing research. Against this background, it suggests a structuring heuristic that compiles different perspectives of analysis which earlier studies have identified as important. It emphasizes, firstly, that opportunities for innovation in regional settings are not only shaped by the regional technology base, but also triggered by (latent) demand and access to users. Additionally, the actual manifestation of opportunities is contingent on local stakeholder agency and the shared perceptions and cognitive frames (mindsets) that shape it. This paper states, secondly, that these regional characteristics determine the types of innovation produced. To demonstrate this as well as how this approach can indeed provide additional insights, the authors perform structured literature reviews using the proposed multi-perspective framework.
鉴于中国区域发展轨迹的明显多样性,本文试图解决对该国区域创新体系和创新成果的比较研究普遍缺乏复杂性的问题。它认为,丰富但独特的案例研究和“技术能力”的一维定量基准之间普遍存在的二分法限制了现有研究的解释力和预测力。在这种背景下,它提出了一种结构化启发式方法,该方法汇集了早期研究认为重要的不同分析视角。它强调,首先,区域环境中的创新机会不仅由区域技术基础决定,还由(潜在的)需求和对用户的访问引发。此外,机会的实际表现取决于当地利益相关者的机构以及形成机会的共同认知和认知框架。其次,本文指出,这些区域特征决定了创新的类型。为了证明这一点以及这种方法如何真正提供额外的见解,作者使用所提出的多视角框架进行了结构化的文献综述。
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引用次数: 5
Retrospect and prospect of research into China’s equipment manufacturing innovation network. Introduction to the theme issue. 中国装备制造创新网络研究的回顾与展望。主题问题介绍。
IF 1.4 4区 社会学 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-09-30 DOI: 10.3112/erdkunde.2019.03.01
G. Zeng, Ingo Liefner
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引用次数: 0
Regional differences in population aging in Europe viewed through prospective indicators 从前瞻性指标看欧洲人口老龄化的区域差异
IF 1.4 4区 社会学 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-09-30 DOI: 10.3112/erdkunde.2019.03.06
L. Šídlo, B. Šprocha, Michaela Klapková
Demographic aging has been one of the most discussed aspects of population development in recent decades. Complex changes in reproductive behaviour and their impact on both age structure and future population development are often the source of concerns about the stability of socioeconomic systems (e.g. pension systems, healthcare and the labour market). Frequently reinforced by the development and use of standard demographic aging indicators and comparisons over time and space and/or between populations, this one-sided view is problematic given significant changes in population mortality and health. Population aging has moreover traditionally been analysed in relation to national and regional differences, with specificities frequently being overlooked. Using new methods for analysing demographic aging based on prospective age, which accounts for changes in life expectancy over time and therefore more accurately captures demographic aging, we attempt to identify the main spatial patterns of regional differentiation in aging in Europe (at the NUTS2 level). We also attempt to create a typology of Europe’s regions using the main aging indicators and thereby identify the areas most affected by demographic aging.
人口老龄化是近几十年来人口发展中讨论最多的方面之一。生殖行为的复杂变化及其对年龄结构和未来人口发展的影响往往是人们对社会经济体系(如养老金体系、医疗保健和劳动力市场)稳定性的担忧。标准人口老龄化指标的制定和使用以及在时间和空间上和/或在人口之间的比较经常加强了这一点,鉴于人口死亡率和健康状况的重大变化,这种片面的观点是有问题的。此外,人口老龄化传统上是根据国家和区域差异进行分析的,而具体情况往往被忽视。使用基于预期年龄的人口老龄化分析新方法,我们试图确定欧洲老龄化区域分化的主要空间模式(在NUTS2水平上)。预期年龄解释了预期寿命随时间的变化,因此更准确地反映了人口老龄化。我们还试图使用主要的老龄化指标创建欧洲地区的类型,从而确定受人口老龄化影响最大的地区。
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引用次数: 5
The evolution of cross-border M&As and innovation strategies: evidence from Chinese construction machinery firms 跨国并购的演变与创新战略——来自中国工程机械企业的证据
IF 1.4 4区 社会学 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-09-30 DOI: 10.3112/erdkunde.2019.03.05
G. Lyu, Ingo Liefner, Daniel Schiller
Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CBMAs) are an important mechanism of international investment and the configuration of global-local innovation networks. This study offers an evolutionary perspective to understand CBMAs sponsored by Chinese firms by focusing on the key actors and main changes at different stages: a primary stage with the target search process, an initial stage with light-touch integration, a fusing stage with emergence of new entities, and a mature stage with the reorganization of global-local innovation networks. The findings indicate that the innovation strategy of Chinese CBMAs corresponds with the structural integration and differentiation of innovation modes.
跨境并购是国际投资和全球地方创新网络配置的重要机制。本研究通过关注不同阶段的关键参与者和主要变化,为理解中国企业发起的CBMA提供了一个进化的视角:目标搜索过程的初级阶段、轻度整合的初始阶段、新实体出现的融合阶段和全球本地创新网络重组的成熟阶段。研究结果表明,中国CBMA的创新战略与创新模式的结构整合和分化相一致。
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引用次数: 2
Spatial differentiation of China’s industrial enterprise R&D efficiency 中国工业企业研发效率的空间分化
IF 1.4 4区 社会学 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-09-30 DOI: 10.3112/erdkunde.2019.03.04
Chengyun Wang, Yue Wang, Nana Li, Tengfei Ma
Technology innovation is a key factor of international competitiveness and promotion of economic growth. As a core driver of technological innovation, research and development (R&D) activity has a direct impact on a nation’s level of innovation. Therefore, many countries attempt to strengthen innovation outcomes by increasing expenditure on R&D. However, there is not a simple linear relation between R&D activity and outcomes, and many authors take R&D efficiency as the key indicator of a company or region’s capability to innovate. China’s spending on R&D has accelerated in recent years, reaching 1.97 trillion yuan (about $286 billion) in 2018, ranking second in the world. This paper focus on discussing the R&D efficiency of China’s industrial enterprises. R&D efficiency refers to the conversion efficiency between input and output of all factors in the R&D process, reflecting the contribution of R&D input to R&D output or the allocation efficiency of R&D resources. Due to different levels of regional development, there are also different levels of R&D performance across these regions. The R&D capabilities of enterprises show significant variation across regions. Lee and Park (2005) classifies 27 countries into four clusters based on their output-specialized R&D efficiency: inventors, merchandisers, academicians and duds, showing for example that Singapore ranks high in total efficiency while Japan demonstrates patent-oriented efficiency. Meanwhile, mainland China, South Korea, and Chinese Taiwan are found to be relatively inefficient in R&D. SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION OF CHINA’S INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISE R&D EFFICIENCY
技术创新是提高国际竞争力和促进经济增长的关键因素。研究与开发(R&D)活动作为技术创新的核心驱动力,直接影响一个国家的创新水平。因此,许多国家试图通过增加研发支出来加强创新成果。然而,研发活动与成果之间并不存在简单的线性关系,许多学者将研发效率作为衡量企业或地区创新能力的关键指标。近年来,中国的研发支出加速增长,2018年达到1.97万亿元人民币(约合2860亿美元),位居世界第二。本文主要讨论中国工业企业的研发效率问题。研发效率是指研发过程中各要素投入与产出之间的转换效率,反映了研发投入对研发产出的贡献或研发资源的配置效率。由于区域发展水平的不同,区域间的研发绩效水平也存在差异。企业研发能力在区域间存在显著差异。Lee和Park(2005)根据产出专业化的研发效率将27个国家分为发明人、商人、院士和失败者四类,例如新加坡在总效率方面排名较高,而日本则表现出专利导向的效率。与此同时,中国大陆、韩国和中国台湾地区的研发效率相对较低。中国工业企业研发效率的空间分异
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引用次数: 3
International tourism and urban transformation in Old Havana 哈瓦那老城区的国际旅游与城市转型
IF 1.4 4区 社会学 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-06-11 DOI: 10.3112/ERDKUNDE.2019.02.01
Niklas Völkening, A. Benz, Matthias Schmidt
Cuba is currently experiencing an unprecedented boom in international tourism, and the Cuban state has actively supported tourism expansion as a strategic means to increase greatly needed foreign currency income, in order to sustain its socialist system. In Havana, Cuba’s gateway city for international tourists and – with its colonial old town bestowed with UNESCO world heritage status – one of its touristic hotspots, this tourism boom is felt most profoundly. The old town has been subject to far-reaching processes of urban restructuring, driven by state-run urban renewal projects, thereby increasing touristic influx and the gradual displacement of dwellers and resident-oriented urban functions by tourism-oriented ventures. This article provides an analysis of the recent spatio-structural urban transformation processes in Habana Vieja, highlighting particularly its interrelations with international tourism, the role of the Cuban government as a major tourism facilitator and the state-run old town restoration programme. Our analysis shows that in the context of old town restructuring in Havana, the Cuban government often favours touristic needs over those of local dwellers, albeit some of them may indeed profit from increasing touristification. Meanwhile, the government is willing to accept, at least in controlled settings, market-based developments otherwise strongly opposed by official state ideology
古巴目前正经历着前所未有的国际旅游业繁荣,古巴政府积极支持扩大旅游业,将其作为增加急需的外汇收入的战略手段,以维持其社会主义制度。哈瓦那是古巴接待国际游客的门户城市,其殖民地古镇被联合国教科文组织授予世界遗产地位,也是其旅游热点之一,人们对这一旅游业繁荣的感受最为深刻。在国有城市更新项目的推动下,老城经历了意义深远的城市重组过程,从而增加了旅游业的涌入,居民和以居民为导向的城市功能逐渐被以旅游业为导向的企业所取代。本文分析了哈瓦那维耶哈最近的城市空间结构转型过程,特别强调了其与国际旅游业的相互关系、古巴政府作为主要旅游业促进者的作用以及国有的老城修复计划。我们的分析表明,在哈瓦那老城重组的背景下,古巴政府往往倾向于旅游需求,而不是当地居民的需求,尽管其中一些人确实可能从日益增长的旅游业中获利。与此同时,政府愿意接受市场化的发展,至少在可控的环境中是这样,否则会遭到官方国家意识形态的强烈反对
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引用次数: 4
The Chinafication of Hollywood: Chinese consumption and the self-censorship of U.S. films through a case study of Transformers Age of Extinction 好莱坞中国化:以《变形金刚4:绝迹重生》为例分析中国对美国电影的消费和自我审查
IF 1.4 4区 社会学 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-06-11 DOI: 10.3112/ERDKUNDE.2019.02.02
Christopher L Lukinbeal
For Hollywood films, the international box office is now financially more important than the domestic market. China will soon become the world’s largest box office for Hollywood films. To gain access to the Chinese market foreign films must be approved by China’s government. Movies must not disparage Chinese culture, landmarks, or the government. Eager to comply, Hollywood producers are not waiting until they are reviewed to make changes and instead are self-censoring in advance rather than risk being denied access. In this paper, I use a representation-in-relation-to approach to cultural geography that positions a film’s text in relation to its production practices to understand the way Hollywood is remaking itself to appeal to China. The representation-in-relation-to approach takes practice seriously without jettisoning the power of representation. I apply this approach to Transformers: Age of Extinction, which through its production practices provides a case study on what trade publications are referring to as the ‘Chinafication of Hollywood.’ In an industry driven by profit, the Chinafication of Hollywood is a form of influence that further limits the creativity and uniqueness of Hollywood movies by prescribing what gets made and how it is represented. Transformers: Age of Extinction is an important cultural text, not for its narrative content, but for how its representation relates to the production practices that allowed it to become China’s largest grossing film at that time and the only billion-dollar blockbuster of 2014.
对于好莱坞电影来说,国际票房在财务上比国内市场更重要。中国很快将成为世界上好莱坞电影票房最高的国家。要想进入中国市场,外国电影必须得到中国政府的批准。电影不能贬低中国文化、地标或政府。急于遵守规定的好莱坞制片人并没有等到审查后才做出改变,而是提前进行自我审查,而不是冒着被拒绝访问的风险。在这篇论文中,我使用了一种与文化地理学相关的方法,将电影文本与其制作实践联系起来,以了解好莱坞如何重塑自己以吸引中国。与方法相关的代表性在不抛弃代表权的情况下认真对待实践。我将这种方法应用于《变形金刚:灭绝时代》,该片通过其制作实践,对行业出版物所称的“好莱坞中国化”进行了案例研究在一个由利润驱动的行业中,好莱坞的中国化是一种影响形式,通过规定制作内容和表现方式,进一步限制了好莱坞电影的创造力和独特性。《变形金刚:绝迹重生》是一部重要的文化文本,不是因为它的叙事内容,而是因为它的表现与当时中国票房最高的电影和2014年唯一一部价值10亿美元的大片的制作实践之间的关系。
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引用次数: 4
Geopolitics - Thick and Complex. A conversation with Gerard Toal 地缘政治——厚重而复杂。与杰拉德·托尔的对话
IF 1.4 4区 社会学 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-06-11 DOI: 10.3112/ERDKUNDE.2019.02.05
V. Bachmann, G. Toal
This contribution centres around a conversation with Gerard Toal (Gearóid Ó Tuathail), held at Goethe-University Frankfurt on 25 October 2018 in the context of the closing events of the project AFRASO (Africa’s Asian Options) – a large interdisciplinary project, funded by the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) between 2013 and 2019. The project investigated the heterogeneous spaces of interaction between Africa and Asia and closed with a lecture series, entitled Afrasian Futures, to which Gerard Toal delivered the first lecture in October 2018. In this contribution, we address the role and evolution of critical geopolitical scholarship, focussing in particular on Toal’s latest book, Near Abroad, as well as on wider debates on (trans)regional studies and shifting geopolitical orderings, such as the ones explored as part of the AFRASO project. It starts with an introductory part in form of a brief reflection on the problematic history of and the ongoing unease with geopolitical scholarship in Germany. It then proceeds with sketching out the basic tenets and the evolution of critical geopolitics, whereby it highlights the decisive influence of Gerard Toal’s work. In the following, the three conceptual foundations of geopolitical field, culture and condition are briefly introduced, as laid out in Toal’s book Near Abroad and in the context of his call for thick analysis of geopolitical complexities. After this introductory part, the remainder of this contribution consists of a conversation with Gerard Toal.
这一贡献围绕着2018年10月25日在法兰克福歌德大学与Gerard Toal(GearóidóTuathail)的对话展开,该对话是在2013年至2019年间由德国教育和研究部资助的大型跨学科项目AFRASO(非洲的亚洲选项)的闭幕式上进行的。该项目调查了非洲和亚洲之间的异质互动空间,并以题为“非洲未来”的系列讲座结束,Gerard Toal于2018年10月在该系列讲座上发表了第一次演讲。在这篇文章中,我们讨论了关键地缘政治学术的作用和演变,特别关注Toal的最新著作《近海外》,以及关于(跨)区域研究和不断变化的地缘政治秩序的更广泛辩论,例如作为AFRASO项目一部分探索的辩论。它以引言部分的形式开始,简要反思德国有问题的历史和对地缘政治学术的持续不安。然后,它开始勾勒出批判性地缘政治的基本原理和演变,从而突出了杰拉德·托尔作品的决定性影响。下文简要介绍了Toal在《近海外》一书中提出的地缘政治领域、文化和条件的三个概念基础,以及他呼吁深入分析地缘政治复杂性的背景。在这个介绍部分之后,本文的其余部分包括与Gerard Toal的对话。
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引用次数: 3
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