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The Role of Macroeconomic Variables in Forecasting Equity Market Volatility in the East African Community Using Garch-Midas Model 宏观经济变量在利用 Garch-Midas 模型预测东非共同体股票市场波动性中的作用
Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.19044/esj.2024.v20n4p1
Lin Wen Sheng, Mutebi Jade
This study delves into the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic variables and equity market volatility in the East African Community. The research employs the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model coupled with the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) approach. Through a comparative process, it is found that the different macroeconomic variables exhibit heterogeneous effects on the different countries in the East African community that is macroeconomic factors significantly explain the variation in stock market volatility in Uganda and including these factors in the GARCH-MIDAS model improved its forecasting ability, however, in Kenya it was found that majority of the macroeconomic variables had insignificant effects on stock market volatility and didn’t improve the forecasting ability of the GARCH-MIDAS model.
本研究探讨了东非共同体宏观经济变量与股票市场波动之间的动态关系。研究采用了广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)模型和混合数据抽样(MIDAS)方法。通过比较过程发现,不同的宏观经济变量对东非共同体不同国家的影响是异质的,即宏观经济因素对乌干达股市波动性的变化有显著的解释作用,将这些因素纳入 GARCH-MIDAS 模型可提高其预测能力,但在肯尼亚,研究发现大多数宏观经济变量对股市波动性的影响并不显著,也没有提高 GARCH-MIDAS 模型的预测能力。
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引用次数: 0
From the Classroom to the Screen: The Power of Artistic Expression and Emotional Intelligence in Effective Online Teaching and Communication 从课堂到屏幕:有效在线教学和交流中艺术表达和情商的力量
Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.19044/esj.2024.v20n37p279
L. Kadagidze
In the context of the increasing prevalence of online education, it is crucial to explore productive approaches that enhance student engagement and foster meaningful interactions. The article examines the role of emotional intelligence and artistic expression in online teaching and communication, drawing from original global survey research with over 200 teacher and educator respondents. The study emphasizes the effectiveness of artistic expression in capturing students' attention, facilitating comprehension, and promoting creativity. The research explores strategies for incorporating emotional intelligence and artistic expression in online teaching, offering practical tips specifically suited for online English instruction. These strategies guide educators in creating dynamic online learning environments that optimize the learning experience and promote academic success. Acknowledging challenges, the paper sheds light on the hesitations and fears experienced by participants in being recorded or teaching in front of a camera. It highlights the need for training, resources, and guidelines to support educators in acquiring and developing artistic expression skills. By addressing challenges and integrating artistic expression, teachers can create impactful and supportive online learning environments that promote student engagement and provide an enriched learning experience in the digital era of education. Finally, the article provides valuable insights and practical recommendations to enhance online teaching practices.
在在线教育日益普及的背景下,探索能提高学生参与度和促进有意义互动的有效方法至关重要。本文通过对 200 多名教师和教育工作者的原始全球调查研究,探讨了情商和艺术表达在在线教学和交流中的作用。研究强调了艺术表达在吸引学生注意力、促进理解和提高创造力方面的有效性。研究探讨了将情商和艺术表达融入在线教学的策略,提供了专门适用于在线英语教学的实用技巧。这些策略指导教育工作者创建动态的在线学习环境,优化学习体验,促进学业成功。在承认挑战的同时,本文也揭示了参与者在被录制或在摄像头前教学时所经历的犹豫和恐惧。论文强调了培训、资源和指导方针的必要性,以支持教育工作者掌握和发展艺术表达技能。通过应对挑战和整合艺术表达,教师可以创建有影响力和支持性的在线学习环境,促进学生的参与,并在数字教育时代提供丰富的学习体验。最后,文章为加强在线教学实践提供了宝贵的见解和实用的建议。
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引用次数: 0
Digital Referendum - Effective Modeling of Public Administration in Georgia 数字公投--格鲁吉亚公共行政的有效模式
Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.19044/esj.2024.v20n37p67
Khatuna Muradishvili, Ekaterina Zakaradze
State management in its content is a complex and at the same time dynamic process. The second half of the 20th century can be considered the initial period of management transformation and establishment of governance structures. Governance based on democratic principles is based on a number of fundamental principles, the correct implementation of which is the most important prerequisite for the establishment of democratic institutions. One such important democratic process is the referendum. In Europe, the practice of referendum is most established in Switzerland, which is governed by a system of direct democracy. Accordingly, in order to solve problematic issues, citizens in Switzerland take part in both regional and national referendums, which are undoubtedly democratic in content and respond to the fundamental principles of modern public administration. In Georgia, where there is little experience in holding a referendum, the implementation of a digital referendum is the latest challenge, which will be an important step in the way of the country's European integration. The involvement of citizens in the solution of important issues for the state allows the so-called possibility of communication between society and government. It eliminates "black holes" and ensures the reduction of conflicts between them. Of course, all the positive results of the referendum depend on how fairly and objectively it will be conducted. Thus, one of the important challenges of the digitalization of the public administration of Georgia is the digital referendum, the implementation and development of which is an effective step on the way of the state development of Georgia and as a result ensures the acceleration of the country's institutional and European integration processes. In the era of digital governance, it is necessary to develop new approaches to state intervention in all spheres of public life and public service delivery systems in order to optimally respond to the needs of citizens. Analysis and comparison methods are mainly used in the work, proposals are given in the direction of improving the provision of public services in connection with the electronic referendum.
国家管理的内容是一个复杂的过程,同时也是一个动态的过程。20 世纪下半叶可被视为管理转型和建立治理结构的初始时期。以民主原则为基础的治理建立在一系列基本原则之上,正确执行这些原则是建立民主体制的最重要前提。全民公决就是这样一个重要的民主程序。在欧洲,全民公决的做法在实行直接民主制度的瑞士最为成熟。因此,为了解决棘手的问题,瑞士公民参加地区和国家全民投票,其内容无疑是民主的,符合现代公共行政的基本原则。在格鲁吉亚,举行全民投票的经验很少,实施数字全民投票是最新的挑战,这将是该国融入欧洲的重要一步。公民参与解决国家的重要问题,可以实现所谓的社会与政府之间的沟通。它消除了 "黑洞",确保减少它们之间的冲突。当然,全民公决的所有积极结果都取决于它将如何公正客观地进行。因此,格鲁吉亚公共行政数字化的重要挑战之一就是数字化全民公决,其实施和发展是格鲁吉亚国家发展道路上的有效一步,从而确保加快国家体制和欧洲一体化进程。在数字治理时代,有必要制定国家干预公共生活各个领域和公共服务提供系统的新方法,以最佳方式满足公民的需求。工作中主要使用了分析和比较方法,并就如何改进与电子全民投票有关的公共服务提出了建议。
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引用次数: 0
Surveillance in the Digital Age 数字时代的监控
Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.19044/esj.2024.v20n37p1
Anri Nishnianidze
Purpose: As technology advances, electronic devices have become ubiquitous among individuals of all backgrounds. From mobile phones to computing devices, people rely on these tools on a daily basis for both personal and professional purposes. The presented research seeks to investigate the extent to which individuals are being monitored in the digital realm and identify solutions to safeguard citizens from the threat of mass surveillance. Findings: In the modern era, it is common for people to utilize various devices for a multitude of purposes, such as search engines and social networks. However, many are unaware that the information they share online is not always erased from cyberspace. This study aims to shed light on how this data is obtained and utilized and the potential risks humanity faces if privacy is not safeguarded in the digital age. Research limitations/implications: The objective of this research is to thoroughly examine the current scientific literature, studies, and articles regarding the perils of surveillance in the digital era. The paper aims to highlight the challenges associated with combating surveillance. In the concluding section of the analysis, a concise set of recommendations will be provided, which are crucial to uphold in order to safeguard individuals' constitutional rights in the face of the potential ramifications of streamlined surveillance. Originality/value: In today's digital age, it has become almost universal for people to communicate through electronic devices in cyberspace, whether for work or personal purposes. Unfortunately, this environment is often not secure, and automated surveillance models can be used to acquire people's data without their knowledge or consent. This raises serious concerns about privacy and the protection of fundamental human rights. That is why it is essential to conduct research that sheds light on the means of surveillance and explores ways to fight against it.
目的:随着科技的进步,电子设备在各种背景的个人中变得无处不在。从手机到计算机设备,人们每天都要依赖这些工具来实现个人和职业目的。本研究旨在调查个人在数字领域受到监控的程度,并找出保护公民免受大规模监控威胁的解决方案。研究结果:在现代社会,人们普遍使用各种设备来实现多种目的,如搜索引擎和社交网络。然而,许多人并不知道,他们在网上分享的信息并不总能从网络空间中删除。本研究旨在揭示这些数据是如何被获取和利用的,以及如果在数字时代不保护隐私,人类将面临的潜在风险。研究局限/影响:本研究的目的是彻底检查当前有关数字时代监控危害的科学文献、研究和文章。本文旨在强调与打击监控相关的挑战。在分析的结论部分,将提出一系列简明扼要的建议,这些建议对于在面对简化监控的潜在影响时维护个人的宪法权利至关重要。原创性/价值:在当今的数字时代,无论是出于工作还是个人目的,人们通过电子设备在网络空间进行交流几乎已成为一种普遍现象。不幸的是,这种环境往往并不安全,自动监控模式可以在人们不知情或未经其同意的情况下获取他们的数据。这引起了人们对隐私和基本人权保护的严重关切。这就是为什么必须开展研究,揭示监控手段并探索与之斗争的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Unemployment and Digital Labor Platforms in Georgia 格鲁吉亚的失业与数字劳动平台
Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.19044/esj.2024.v20n37p126
Murtaz Kvirkvaia, Mogeli Shengelia
This article addresses the pressing issues of unemployment and employment in Georgia over the past three decades. With an average unemployment rate of around 20 percent, affecting approximately 300,000 people from 2010 to 2022, the labor force faces significant challenges. The advent of technological progress has highlighted the necessity for novel approaches to the labor market. In this context, digital work platforms have emerged as potential solutions, offering new forms of employment and creating opportunities driven by advancements in digital technologies. The aim of this study is to identify innovative employment opportunities in the context of the current unemployment situation in order to improve the Georgian labor market conjunction. The study draws upon interviews with labor market specialists and presents conclusions based on primary and secondary data. While the research indicates that digital work platforms do not currently play a major role in employment, their significance is projected to grow in the future. The extent of their impact on the population's employment prospects will depend on Georgia's technological development and educational level. These platforms demonstrate the potential to generate flexible jobs and provide supplementary income opportunities. However, challenges associated with their development must be addressed for their successful integration into the labor market.
本文探讨了佐治亚州在过去三十年中亟待解决的失业和就业问题。格鲁吉亚的平均失业率约为 20%,从 2010 年到 2022 年约有 30 万人受到影响,劳动力面临着巨大的挑战。技术进步的到来凸显了采用新方法解决劳动力市场问题的必要性。在此背景下,数字工作平台成为潜在的解决方案,提供新的就业形式,并在数字技术进步的推动下创造机会。本研究的目的是在当前失业形势下确定创新就业机会,以改善格鲁吉亚劳动力市场的连接。本研究借鉴了对劳动力市场专家的访谈,并根据一手和二手数据得出结论。研究表明,虽然数字工作平台目前在就业方面并没有发挥主要作用,但预计其重要性在未来将会增加。其对人口就业前景的影响程度将取决于格鲁吉亚的技术发展和教育水平。这些平台显示出创造灵活就业机会和提供补充收入机会的潜力。然而,要想成功融入劳动力市场,必须应对与这些平台发展相关的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
The Issue of Podcast Effectiveness in Higher EducationA Case Study of the University of Georgia 高等教育中的播客有效性问题佐治亚大学案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.19044/esj.2024.v20n37p169
Tamar Gagoshidze, Tamar Tavkhelidze
The podcast, originating in 2001 in the U.S. and later expanding globally, challenges traditional media with its customizable content. Podcasts distinguish themselves by affording listeners the agency to curate content to their preferences, a departure from the prescriptive nature of conventional media. Comparable to having a bespoke show tailored to individual interests, podcasts have emerged as a sophisticated and customizable avenue for content consumption. This article explores the transformative role of podcasts in higher education in Georgia, investigating their developmental stages, diverse perspectives, and implications for the education system. With four main objectives, the research first examines divergent perspectives on podcast integration in higher education. It then presents qualitative and quantitative findings on podcast impact, focusing on comparative statistical research in Georgia and developed countries. Additionally, the study evaluates the effectiveness of podcasts as instructional tools and their contribution to the learning process. Lastly, it explores student preferences, seeking to understand why students favor podcasts over traditional courses and analyzing the implications of this shift. Revealing a prevalent interest among students, the study shows that they not only express interest but also independently integrate podcasts into their learning practices. The positive impact on student knowledge levels, as indicated by the survey, adds valuable insights to the evolving relationship between podcasts and education in Georgia.
播客于 2001 年起源于美国,后来扩展到全球,它以其可定制的内容挑战传统媒体。播客的与众不同之处在于,听众可以根据自己的喜好策划内容,这与传统媒体的规定性截然不同。与根据个人兴趣量身定制节目相比,播客已成为一种先进的、可定制的内容消费途径。本文探讨了播客在格鲁吉亚高等教育中的变革作用,研究了播客的发展阶段、不同观点以及对教育系统的影响。研究有四个主要目标,首先探讨了高等教育中播客整合的不同观点。然后,研究介绍了有关播客影响的定性和定量研究结果,重点是格鲁吉亚和发达国家的比较统计研究。此外,研究还评估了播客作为教学工具的有效性及其对学习过程的贡献。最后,研究还探讨了学生的偏好,试图了解学生为何青睐播客而非传统课程,并分析了这种转变的影响。研究揭示了学生的普遍兴趣,表明他们不仅表达了兴趣,而且还独立地将播客融入到学习实践中。调查显示,播客对学生知识水平的积极影响为佐治亚州播客与教育之间不断发展的关系增添了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Virtual Collaborative Learning as One of the Effective Strategies for Raising Cross-Cultural Awareness in Business English Classroom 虚拟协作学习是提高商务英语课堂跨文化意识的有效策略之一
Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.19044/esj.2024.v20n37p191
Tamari Dolidze, Nino Mikeladze, Anna Abesadze, Michael Jack Mansfield
Recently, Business English (BE) has become an integral part of teaching English due to its growing demand in the employment market and its power to facilitate cross-cultural communication and dialogue between speakers of all languages. Since BE serves as a Lingua Franca globally, a good mastery of the so-called Business English as Lingua Franca (BELF) is getting more and more attention among practitioners and researchers of Business English, who attempt to update their curriculum by cutting-edge developments for better occupational purposes. With this in mind, the presented paper will attempt to showcase the merits of Virtual Collaborative Learning (VCL) as one of the effective strategic tools for raising cross-cultural communication in the Business English classroom which indeed fosters the development of a culturally intelligent generation through support and guidance. To assess effectiveness, a survey was conducted among students enrolled in the Business English course offered through virtual learning at Grigol Robakidze University and Azerbaijan Pedagogical University during the Spring 2021 semester. The survey included seven closed prompts using the Likert scale, ranging from "Strongly Agree" to "Strongly Disagree" and "Always" to "Never," and one open-ended question requiring a written response based on personal opinions. The responses verified the positive influence of VCL activities in promoting interaction among students from different cultures and heightened awareness of cultural understanding. The discovered insights will be integrated into the current curriculum at Grigol Robakidze University, which is scheduled for the upcoming academic year.
最近,商务英语(BE)已经成为英语教学中不可或缺的一部分,因为它在就业市场上的需求日益增长,而且它能够促进跨文化交流和所有语言使用者之间的对话。由于商务英语在全球范围内都是一种通用语言,因此,商务英语从业人员和研究人员越来越重视掌握所谓的 "商务英语作为通用语言"(BELF),他们试图通过最前沿的发展来更新他们的课程,以达到更好的职业目的。有鉴于此,本文将试图展示虚拟协作学习(VCL)作为提高商务英语课堂跨文化交际能力的有效战略工具之一的优点,它通过支持和指导确实促进了具有文化智慧的一代人的发展。为了评估其有效性,我们对 2021 年春季学期在格里戈尔-罗巴基泽大学和阿塞拜疆师范大学通过虚拟学习开设商务英语课程的学生进行了调查。调查包括七个采用李克特量表(从 "非常同意 "到 "非常不同意 "和 "总是 "到 "从不")的封闭式提示问题,以及一个要求根据个人观点进行书面回答的开放式问题。这些回答证实了 VCL 活动在促进来自不同文化背景的学生之间的互动和提高文化理解意识方面的积极影响。格里戈尔-罗巴基泽大学计划在下一学年将所发现的见解纳入现有课程。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing the Adoption of Financial Innovations to Foster Socioeconomic Welfare 加强对金融创新的采用以促进社会经济福利
Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.19044/esj.2024.v20n37p178
Tamar Gamsakhurdia, L. Kadagidze
The integration of digital technologies has garnered global attention, with a primary focus on their potential to streamline the convergence of digital and non-digital economies. This trend is poised to generate self-employment opportunities and spur socio-economic development, transcending geographic boundaries. In the context of Georgia, where the number of digitally connected individuals is on the rise, it becomes imperative to ascertain the extent to which financial technologies deployed in the financial services industry contribute to the well-being of the population and business representatives. This research aims to assess the benefits of these technologies while acknowledging that their utilization does not impede the future implementation of novel financial innovations by institutions in the sector. While including both, qualitative and quantitative analysis, the study examines the significance of financial technologies in the country's economy in terms of financial resources and the impact on the well-being and growth of the population and companies. Emphasizing user-centricity, it underscores the need to prioritize the fulfillment of users' requirements. Notably, it is not solely traditional financial institutions that shape the landscape, but also technology firms offering innovative products and services, which exert a critical influence on fostering a dynamic business environment. Furthermore, the evaluation of emerging technologies such as cloud computing, the Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence, and blockchain elucidates their potential impact in enhancing the well-being of businesses and the general population. Nevertheless, given the current stage of their development, a comprehensive nationwide implementation of these technologies remains challenging.
数字技术的融合已引起全球关注,其主要焦点是数字技术简化数字经济和非数字经济融合的潜力。这一趋势有望创造自营职业机会,促进社会经济发展,超越地理界限。在格鲁吉亚,数字连接的个人数量正在增加,因此必须确定金融服务业部署的金融技术在多大程度上促进了居民和企业代表的福祉。本研究旨在评估这些技术的益处,同时认识到这些技术的使用并不妨碍该行业机构未来实施新颖的金融创新。在进行定性和定量分析的同时,本研究还探讨了金融技术在国家经济中对金融资源的重要性,以及对居民和企业福祉与发展的影响。研究强调以用户为中心,强调必须优先满足用户的要求。值得注意的是,不仅是传统金融机构塑造了这一格局,提供创新产品和服务的技术公司也对促进充满活力的商业环境产生了至关重要的影响。此外,对云计算、物联网(IoT)、人工智能和区块链等新兴技术的评估阐明了它们在提高企业和普通民众福祉方面的潜在影响。然而,鉴于其目前的发展阶段,在全国范围内全面实施这些技术仍具有挑战性。
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引用次数: 0
The Legal Dimension of the Formation and Function of the Hellenic Supremes Councils for Marine Accidents 希腊海事事故最高委员会的成立和职能的法律维度
Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.19044/esj.2024.v20n37p295
T. Korontzis
Shipping is perhaps the largest industry globally, transporting more than 90% of the world's trade efficiently and safely. Ships, given their activity on a global scale, are subject to different legal regimes. However, marine accidents with adverse consequences for the environment and people still occur. Hellas, as a country with a strong maritime tradition and with one of the largest shipping companies in the world since the 70s, has established a special legislative framework for the investigation of marine accidents with the Act Decree (A.D.) 712/1970 (A΄ 237). This special legislative process will be critically examined in this brief study.
航运也许是全球最大的产业,高效、安全地运输着全球 90% 以上的贸易。鉴于船舶在全球范围内的活动,它们受不同法律制度的管辖。然而,对环境和人类造成不良后果的海上事故仍时有发生。希腊作为一个有着深厚航海传统的国家,自上世纪 70 年代以来一直是世界上最大的航运公司之一,希腊通过第 712/1970 号法令(A΄237)建立了一个专门的海上事故调查立法框架。本简要研究将对这一特殊立法程序进行严格审查。
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引用次数: 0
Nakae Chomin’s World of Thought and Ideology of the Meiji Period through the “Gentleman” Character in “A Discourse by Three Drunkards on Government (Sansuijin Keirin Mondo)” 通过《三醉论政》中的 "君子 "人物看中江忠民的明治思想世界和意识形态
Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.19044/esj.2024.v20n37p246
Yasemin Yazici
From the second half of the 19th century, many intellectuals of the Meiji Japan serve as a referance for us in order to understand the roadmap of Japan which has revealed an important modernization story under the name of the Meiji Restoration. One of the enlightened thinkers we come across at this point is Nakae Chōmin. Nakae Chōmin, (1847-1901) contributed to the establishment of concepts such as freedom, equality, democracy and constitutionalism in the political memory of Japan through his articles. At the same time, he created a concept memory in the Japanese political thought and brought new concepts to the Japanese language. In this study, ideology analysis was made in “Sansuijin Keirin Mondō (A Discourse by Three Drunkards on Government)” which is called Nakae Chōmin’s masterpiece and conveys the ideas of the Meiji period to the reader through different characters. In this work, written with the Socratic dialogue method, the understanding of modernism, idealism, pacifism, freedom, equality, democracy etc. was examined by focusing on the “Gentleman”, one of the characters described as Nakae Chōmin’s alter ego. At the conclusion of the study, we have determined that a great majority of the ideas put forward by the character of “Gentleman” are also included in Nakae Chōmin’s intellectual framework, especially in the liberal views before 1891.
从 19 世纪下半叶开始,日本明治时期的许多知识分子为我们提供了参考,帮助我们了解以明治维新为名、揭示了重要现代化故事的日本路线图。在这一点上,我们遇到的启蒙思想家之一是中江正民。中江正民(1847-1901 年)通过他的文章,在日本的政治记忆中确立了自由、平等、民主和宪政等概念。同时,他在日本政治思想中创造了概念记忆,并为日语带来了新概念。在本研究中,我们对被称为中江忠民代表作的《三省吟》进行了意识形态分析,该作品通过不同的人物向读者传达了明治时期的思想。在这部采用苏格拉底对话法写作的作品中,通过聚焦被称为中江正民的另一个自我的人物之一 "绅士",研究了对现代主义、理想主义、和平主义、自由、平等、民主等的理解。在研究的最后,我们确定 "绅士 "这一人物所提出的绝大多数思想也包含在中江正民的思想框架中,尤其是在 1891 年之前的自由主义观点中。
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引用次数: 0
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European Scientific Journal, ESJ
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