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2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)最新文献

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System Reliability Risk Model and Its Application to Station Breaker Replacement 系统可靠性风险模型及其在车站断路器更换中的应用
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183702
Dange Huang, B. Bagen
Utilities are facing many challenges in planning and operating the power systems. The use of probabilistic planning approach is a beneficial supplement to the existing system planning and operation process. A series of tools has been developed in Manitoba Hydro to provide inputs to high level decision making process including capital project justification, enhancement of transmission asset management, prioritization of transmission asset investment. The applications of the basic concept that has been used in the risk assessment tools are illustrated through the assessment of a potential investment project involving the replacement of a number of breakers in a practical power system. Particularly the evaluation of the breaker replacement project considers the operational constraints, which is an important aspect that needs to be modelled in practical power system reliability assessment.
电力公司在规划和运行电力系统方面面临着许多挑战。采用概率规划方法是对现有系统规划和运行过程的有益补充。曼尼托巴水电公司开发了一系列工具,为高层决策过程提供投入,包括资本项目论证、加强输电资产管理、输电资产投资的优先次序。通过对一个潜在投资项目的评估来说明风险评估工具中所使用的基本概念的应用,该项目涉及在实际电力系统中更换一些断路器。特别是断路器更换方案的评估要考虑运行约束,这是实际电力系统可靠性评估中需要建模的一个重要方面。
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引用次数: 2
Transmission Line Overloading Analysis Using Probabilistic Dynamic Line Rating 基于概率动态线路评级的输电线路过载分析
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183550
S. Hajeforosh, M. Bollen
Load growth and addition of renewable energy generation occur in a way that makes the power grid being operated closer to its physical limits. Increasing the flexibility of the electrical power system is an essential step in ensuring a continued high reliability of the electricity supply. Dynamic line rating (DLR) can be utilized to increase the reliability of the system by ordering curtailment only when needed. In this paper, a probabilistic approach is introduced for the operational overload protection based on the probability distribution of the actual line capacity. That distribution is obtained by considering measurement and prediction errors in weather parameters as well as other uncertainties. The results indicate that probabilistic DLR based protection would allow operational decision-making based on a fair balance between dependability and security. This is not possible using the classical overload protection system.
负荷增长和可再生能源发电的增加使电网的运行更接近其物理极限。提高电力系统的灵活性是确保电力供应持续高可靠性的必要步骤。动态线路额定值(DLR)可以通过仅在需要时才下令削减来提高系统的可靠性。本文根据实际线路容量的概率分布,提出了一种运行过载保护的概率方法。该分布是通过考虑天气参数的测量和预测误差以及其他不确定性而得到的。结果表明,基于概率DLR的保护将允许基于可靠性和安全性之间的公平平衡的操作决策。这是不可能使用经典的过载保护系统。
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引用次数: 2
Data-driven Assessment of Power System Reliability in Presence of Renewable Energy 可再生能源存在下电力系统可靠性数据驱动评估
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183481
Atri Bera, Anurag Chowdhury, J. Mitra, Saleh S Almasabi, M. Benidris
The penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) and energy storage systems (ESS) in the modern-day power grid is increasing at a fast pace. However, reliability assessment of power systems using traditional methods has become a challenging task due to the interdependencies between RES like wind and solar, ESS, and the load. This paper proposes a new method based on artificial neural networks (ANN), a data-driven technique, for reliability assessment of a power system by estimating the parameters of the ANN. The hourly generation data of the distributed and conventional generators are considered to be the features or the input variables. A recurrent neural network based classification algorithm is trained to determine system responses to changes in system conditions. The data required for training and testing the learning algorithm is generated using sequential Monte Carlo simulation. The IEEE Reliability Test System is utilized for testing and validating the proposed approach. The results indicate that the learning algorithm can model the temporal relevance between different system variables for successful reliability assessment of the system.
可再生能源(RES)和储能系统(ESS)在现代电网中的渗透率正在快速增长。然而,由于风能和太阳能等可再生能源、ESS和负荷之间的相互依赖性,使用传统方法对电力系统进行可靠性评估已成为一项具有挑战性的任务。本文提出了一种基于数据驱动的人工神经网络(artificial neural networks, ANN)技术,通过对人工神经网络参数的估计来进行电力系统可靠性评估的新方法。将分布式发电机和常规发电机的小时发电量数据作为特征或输入变量。训练了一种基于循环神经网络的分类算法来确定系统对系统条件变化的响应。训练和测试学习算法所需的数据是使用顺序蒙特卡罗模拟生成的。利用IEEE可靠性测试系统对所提出的方法进行了测试和验证。结果表明,该学习算法可以对不同系统变量之间的时间相关性进行建模,从而成功地对系统进行可靠性评估。
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引用次数: 5
Underground AC Circuits in North America: Inventory Attributes and Sustained Outages 北美地下交流电路:库存属性和持续中断
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183424
S. Ekisheva, M. Papic, M. Lauby, B. David Till
This paper presents a first comprehensive statistical study of transmission inventory and outage data for underground AC circuits on the North American scale. The analysis is based on the data collected and submitted by member utilities to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s (NERC’s) Transmission Availability Data System (TADS) during the years 2013 to 2018. The statistical approach considers the random nature of automatic outages and connects the outage frequency on an underground circuit and the outage duration with the circuit inventory attributes both numerical and categorical (voltage class, mileage, number of terminals, terrain etc.)A comparative analysis of reliability statistics for underground and overhead transmission circuits is also presented. It shows that automatic outages on the underground circuits are significantly rarer but much longer than on the overhead circuits. The greater durations result in a higher unavailability of the underground transmission lines compared with the overhead ones—on average, an underground AC circuit is unavailable 29 hours a year due to sustained automatic outages versus 6 hours for an overhead ac circuit.
本文首次在北美范围内对地下交流线路的输电库存和停电数据进行了全面的统计研究。该分析基于成员公用事业公司在2013年至2018年期间收集并提交给北美电力可靠性公司(NERC)传输可用性数据系统(TADS)的数据。该统计方法考虑了自动停电的随机性,将地下线路的停电频率和停电持续时间与线路库存的数值和分类属性(电压等级、里程、接线端子数、地形等)联系起来,并对地下和架空输电线路的可靠性统计进行了比较分析。结果表明,与架空线路相比,地下线路的自动停电明显较少,但时间更长。与架空输电线路相比,持续时间越长,地下输电线路的不可用性越高——平均而言,由于持续的自动停电,地下交流线路每年不可用29小时,而架空交流线路每年不可用6小时。
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引用次数: 1
HFNet: Forecasting Real-Time Electricity Price via Novel GRU Architectures HFNet:基于新型GRU架构的实时电价预测
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183697
Haolin Yang, K. Schell
Electricity price forecasting is critical to numerous tasks in the power system such as strategic bidding, generation scheduling, optimal scheduling of storage reserves and system analysis. Most existing price forecasting models focus on hourly prediction for the day ahead market. This work focuses on the real-time, 5-minute market, with the goal of developing a model able to capture both the long- and short-term temporal distribution of the data. Extending the recent advances in deep learning models of time series forecasting, the proposed model - named HFnet - is a novel multi-branch Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) architecture for electricity price forecasting. Extensive empirical analyses using real-time data from the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) illustrate the value of the proposed model when compared to state-of-art prediction models, with an average reduction in error of 10%.
电价预测对电力系统的战略投标、发电计划、储备优化调度和系统分析等工作具有重要意义。大多数现有的价格预测模型侧重于对前一天市场的每小时预测。这项工作的重点是实时的5分钟市场,目标是开发一个能够捕获数据的长期和短期时间分布的模型。该模型扩展了时间序列预测的深度学习模型的最新进展,命名为HFnet,是一种用于电价预测的新型多分支门控循环单元(GRU)架构。利用纽约独立系统运营商(NYISO)的实时数据进行的广泛实证分析表明,与最先进的预测模型相比,所提出的模型的价值平均降低了10%的误差。
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引用次数: 6
Combining Historical Data and Domain Expert Knowledge Using Optimization to Model Electrical Equipment Reliability 结合历史数据和领域专家知识,利用优化建模电气设备可靠性
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183620
A. Côté, O. Blancke, S. Alarie, Amira Dems, D. Komljenovic, D. Messaoudi
To meet new needs and respond to changes in the energy market, Hydro-Québec TransÉnergie required new predictive modelling methods and systems to support its asset management activities. It created PRIAD, a robust integration and decision support system. One goal of PRIAD is to assess asset behavior for the purposes of simulating system reliability. A method using a black-box optimization technique was developed to calibrate an expert reliability model with historical data analysis. The model's electrical equipment reliability predictions were satisfactory, but further improvements are planned. One benefit of this approach is to allow experts to reassess their maintenance strategies using modelling results.
为了满足新的需求和应对能源市场的变化,hydro - quacimbec TransÉnergie需要新的预测建模方法和系统来支持其资产管理活动。它创建了PRIAD,一个强大的集成和决策支持系统。PRIAD的一个目标是评估资产行为以模拟系统可靠性。提出了一种利用黑盒优化技术对专家可靠性模型进行历史数据校正的方法。该模型的电气设备可靠性预测是令人满意的,但进一步的改进计划。这种方法的一个好处是允许专家使用建模结果重新评估他们的维护策略。
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引用次数: 3
Use of Transmission Line Outage History for Probabilistic Transmission Risk Assessment 输电线路中断历史在概率输电风险评估中的应用
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183468
Gregg A. Spindler, Susan L. Spindler
Probabilistic transmission planning and risk assessment has been used for several decades. One key component is the use of historical outage data to compute failure rates of individual transmission lines which are used in the modeling of a transmission system. The most common approach used to calculate transmission line outage probabilities is the assumption of a Poisson distribution of outages in a unit time period, with an Exponential distribution of time between failures. This paper provides a discussion of some factors which influence reliability. It compares two commonly used statistical failure distributions, the Exponential and Weibull applied to a large sample of outage history from individual transmission circuits of US systems.
概率传输规划和风险评估已经使用了几十年。其中一个关键部分是使用历史停电数据来计算输电系统建模中使用的单个输电线路的故障率。用于计算输电线路中断概率的最常用方法是假设单位时间内中断的泊松分布,故障间隔时间呈指数分布。本文对影响可靠性的一些因素进行了讨论。它比较了两种常用的统计故障分布,指数分布和威布尔分布,应用于来自美国系统单个传输电路的大量停电历史样本。
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引用次数: 1
A review of data-driven and probabilistic algorithms for detection purposes in local power systems 基于数据驱动和概率算法的局部电力系统检测综述
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183634
Sylvie Koziel, P. Hilber, R. Ichise
Power grid operators use data to guide their asset management decisions. However, as the complexity of collected data increases with time and amount of sensors, it becomes more difficult to extract relevant information. Therefore, methods that perform detection tasks need to be developed, especially in distribution systems, which are impacted by distributed generation and smart appliances. Until now, methods employed in local power systems for detection purposes using data with low sampling rate, have not been reviewed. This paper provides a literature review focused on anomaly detection, fault location, and load disaggregation. We analyze the methods in terms of their type, data requirements and ways they are implemented. Many belong to the machine learning field. We find that some methods are typically combined with others and perform specific tasks, while other methods are more ubiquitous and often used alone. Continued research is needed to identify how to guide the choice of methods, and to investigate combinations of methods that have not been studied yet.
电网运营商使用数据来指导他们的资产管理决策。然而,随着采集数据的复杂性随着时间和传感器数量的增加而增加,提取相关信息变得更加困难。因此,需要开发执行检测任务的方法,特别是在受分布式发电和智能设备影响的配电系统中。到目前为止,在当地电力系统中使用低采样率数据进行检测的方法尚未得到审查。本文对异常检测、故障定位和负载分解等方面的研究进行了综述。我们根据方法的类型、数据需求和实现方式来分析这些方法。很多都属于机器学习领域。我们发现有些方法通常与其他方法结合并执行特定任务,而其他方法则更为普遍且经常单独使用。需要继续进行研究,以确定如何指导方法的选择,并调查尚未研究过的方法组合。
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引用次数: 2
Modeling of Natural Disasters and Extreme Events for Power System Resilience Enhancement and Evaluation Methods 电力系统自然灾害和极端事件建模及弹性增强评估方法
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183679
N. Bhusal, Mukesh Gautam, Michael Abdelmalak, M. Benidris
The frequency of disruptive and newly emerging threats (e.g. man-made attacks—cyber and physical attacks; extreme natural events—hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) has escalated in the last decade. Impacts of these events are very severe ranging from long power outage duration, major power system equipment (e.g. power generation plants, transmission and distribution lines, and substation) destruction, and complete blackout. Accurate modeling of these events is vital as they serve as mathematical tools for the assessment and evaluation of various operations and planning investment strategies to harden power systems against these events. This paper provides a comprehensive and critical review of current practices in modeling of extreme events, system components, and system response for resilience evaluation and enhancement, which is a important stepping stone toward the development of complete, accurate, and computationally attractive modeling techniques. The paper starts with reviewing existing technologies to model the propagation of extreme events and then discusses the approaches used to model impacts of these events on power system components and system response. This paper also discusses the research gaps and associated challenges, and potential solutions to the limitations of the existing modeling approaches.
破坏性和新出现的威胁的频率(例如人为攻击-网络和物理攻击;极端的自然事件——飓风、地震和洪水——在过去十年中不断升级。这些事件的影响非常严重,停电时间长,主要电力系统设备(如发电厂、输配电线路和变电站)被破坏,甚至完全停电。这些事件的准确建模至关重要,因为它们可以作为评估和评估各种操作和规划投资策略的数学工具,以加强电力系统对这些事件的防御。本文对当前极端事件、系统组件和系统响应的建模实践进行了全面和批判性的回顾,以评估和增强弹性,这是开发完整、准确和计算上有吸引力的建模技术的重要基石。本文首先回顾了现有的极端事件传播建模技术,然后讨论了用于模拟这些事件对电力系统组件和系统响应影响的方法。本文还讨论了研究差距和相关挑战,以及现有建模方法局限性的潜在解决方案。
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引用次数: 11
Composite Power System Reliability Assessment Considering Transmission Line Flexibility 考虑输电线路柔性的综合电力系统可靠性评估
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183505
G. Bolacell, Mauro Augusto da Rosa
Penetration of intermittent renewable generation, power market effects and dynamic conditions are driving the power system to an operation with higher flexibility. The concept of dynamic line rating is envisioned as a solution to enhance transmission system flexibility. This paper proposes to include the dynamic conductor thermal modeling on the composite power system reliability assessment using a sequential Monte Carlo simulation. An hourly capacity series for each transmission line is generated regarding the type of conductor, voltage level and weather conditions, respecting the maximum conductor temperature. The IEEE-RTS 79 is utilized to illustrate the proposed methodology.
间歇性可再生能源发电的渗透、电力市场效应和动态条件正在推动电力系统的运行具有更高的灵活性。动态线路额定值的概念被设想为一种提高输电系统灵活性的解决方案。本文提出采用时序蒙特卡罗仿真方法,将导线动态热建模纳入复合电力系统可靠性评估中。根据导体类型、电压等级和天气条件,根据最高导体温度,生成每条输电线路的小时容量系列。IEEE-RTS 79被用来说明所提出的方法。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)
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