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2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)最新文献

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A Data-Driven Approach to Assessing and Improving Stochastic Residential Load Modeling for District-Level Simulations and PV Integration 基于数据驱动的区域级模拟和光伏集成随机住宅负荷建模评估与改进方法
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183420
R. Claeys, C. Protopapadaki, D. Saelens, J. Desmet
This paper presents an assessment and improvement of stochastic load modeling for district-level analyses with integration of photovoltaic panels (PV), by comparison with measurement data. Stochastic load profiles for individual households were produced using the bottom-up ‘Stochastic Residential Occupancy Behavior’ (StROBe) model. The self-consumption of households with PV installations and the district-level peak demand are examined as properties relevant for the estimation of PV hosting capacity and accompanying grid-related problems. The comparison shows that while the synthetic profiles produce reasonable estimates of simultaneity and summer peak demand, they insufficiently represent the seasonal variations. In addition, self-consumption is overestimated by the model. The observed discrepancies can be traced back to inaccurate modeling of the peak timing and seasonal variation in individual peak load and simultaneity. Furthermore, vacant homes in the measured data are found to contribute significantly to discrepancies in holiday periods. Adjusting the stochastic modeling to account for these vacant homes results in improved performance of the model. This research demonstrates that harvesting the full potential of bottom-up stochastic load modeling would require more up-to-date information on residential electricity use patterns.
本文通过与实测数据的比较,对光伏板集成的区域级随机负荷模型进行了评价和改进。使用自下而上的“随机住宅占用行为”(StROBe)模型生成单个家庭的随机负荷曲线。对安装了光伏装置的家庭的自我消费和地区一级的峰值需求进行了检查,作为估算光伏托管容量和伴随的电网相关问题的相关属性。比较表明,虽然综合曲线对同时性和夏季峰值需求做出了合理的估计,但它们不足以反映季节变化。此外,自我消费被模型高估。观察到的差异可以追溯到峰值时间和单个峰值负荷和同时性的季节变化的不准确建模。此外,测量数据中的空置房屋被发现对假日期间的差异有显著贡献。调整随机模型以考虑这些空置房,结果提高了模型的性能。这项研究表明,要充分发挥自下而上随机负荷建模的潜力,就需要更多关于住宅用电模式的最新信息。
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引用次数: 0
A Method to Evaluate the Maximum Hosting Capacity of Power Systems to Electric Vehicles 一种评估电力系统对电动汽车最大承载能力的方法
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183519
M. Kamruzzaman, Xiaohu Zhang, Michael Abdelmalak, M. Benidris, Di Shi
This paper proposes a smart charging/discharging-based method to evaluate the expected maximum hosting capacity (EMHC) of power systems to electric vehicles (EVs). The rapid growth in the use of EVs increases the challenges to satisfy their charging demand using existing power system resources. Therefore, a method to quantify the EMHC of power systems to EVs is required to plan for system improvements and ensure maximum utilization of resources. In this work, a method to calculate the EMHC of power systems to EVs is developed based on variable charging/discharging rates. The EMHC is calculated for charging stations at both homes and workplaces. The charging/discharging rates are varied based on daily energy demand and parking durations of EVs and network constraints. The parking duration is calculated based on probability distribution functions (PDFs) of arrival and departure times. The energy required to travel each mile and PDF of daily travel distances are used to calculate the daily energy demand of EVs. The optimization problem to maximize the hosting capacity is formulated using a linearized AC power flow model. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate the EMHC. The proposed method is demonstrated on the modified IEEE 33-bus system. The results show that the daily EMHC of the modified IEEE 33-bus system varies between 20-41 cars for selected nodes.
提出了一种基于智能充放电的电力系统对电动汽车期望最大承载能力(EMHC)评估方法。电动汽车使用量的快速增长增加了利用现有电力系统资源满足其充电需求的挑战。因此,需要一种量化电力系统对电动汽车的EMHC的方法,以规划系统改进并确保资源的最大利用。本文提出了一种基于变充放电速率的电力系统对电动汽车的EMHC计算方法。EMHC是为家庭和工作场所的充电站计算的。充电/放电速率根据电动汽车的日常能源需求和停车时间以及网络限制而变化。停车时间是根据到达和离开时间的概率分布函数(pdf)计算的。使用每英里行驶所需能量和每日行驶距离PDF来计算电动汽车的每日能源需求。利用线性化的交流潮流模型,建立了最大承载容量的优化问题。采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对EMHC进行了计算。该方法在改进的IEEE 33总线系统上得到了验证。结果表明,改进后的IEEE 33总线系统在选定节点上的日EMHC在20-41辆之间变化。
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引用次数: 3
Operating Reserve Assessment in Systems with Energy Storage and Electric Vehicles 储能和电动汽车系统的运行储备评估
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183486
J. F. C. Castro, P. Rosas, L. H. A. Medeiros, A. M. Leite da Silva
This paper evaluates the use of energy storage systems integrated to wind generation to increase the operating reserve of an electrical power network, in order to improve the short-term operation and reduce the risk of load interruption. The spinning reserve levels, which are required to ensure the system reliability, are assessed through risk indices evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation and cross-entropy method. Electrical vehicles insertion in the power network is represented as uncertainties in the short-term load model. The proposed method is applied to the IEEE-RTS-Wind system.
本文评估了将储能系统集成到风力发电中,以增加电网的运行储备,从而改善短期运行,降低负荷中断的风险。通过蒙特卡罗模拟和交叉熵法评估风险指标,对保证系统可靠性所需的旋转备用水平进行评估。在短期负荷模型中,将电动汽车插入电网的情况表示为不确定性。该方法已应用于IEEE-RTS-Wind系统。
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引用次数: 0
Swift Disaster Recovery for Resilient Power Grids: Integration of DERs with Mobile Power Sources 弹性电网的快速灾难恢复:DERs与移动电源的集成
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183451
Mostafa Nazemi, P. Dehghanian, Zijiang Yang
Despite remarkable growth in penetration of renewable energy resources in power grids, most recovery and restoration strategies cannot fully harness the potentials in such resources due to their inherent uncertainty and stochasticity. We propose a resilient disaster recovery scheme to fully unlock the flexibility of the distribution system (DS) through reconfiguration practices and efficient utilization of mobile power sources (MPS) across the system. A novel optimization framework is proposed to model the MPSs dispatch while considering a set of scenarios to capture the uncertainties in distributed energy resources in the system. The optimization model is then convexified equivalently and linearized into a mixed-integer linear programming formulation to reduce the computational complexity and achieve a global optimality. The numerical results verify a notable recovery speed and an improved power system resilience and survivability to severe extremes with devastating consequences.
尽管可再生能源在电网中的渗透率显著增长,但由于其固有的不确定性和随机性,大多数恢复和恢复战略不能充分利用这些资源的潜力。我们提出了一种弹性灾难恢复方案,通过重新配置实践和有效利用整个系统的移动电源(MPS)来充分释放配电系统(DS)的灵活性。提出了一种新的优化框架来建模mps调度,同时考虑了一组场景来捕捉系统中分布式能源的不确定性。然后将优化模型等效凸化并线性化为混合整数线性规划公式,以降低计算复杂度并实现全局最优性。数值结果表明,该方法能显著提高电力系统的恢复速度,提高电力系统对具有破坏性后果的极端情况的恢复能力和生存能力。
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引用次数: 2
Representing Long-term Impact of Residential Building Energy Management using Stochastic Dynamic Programming 用随机动态规划表示住宅建筑能源管理的长期影响
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183623
K. Thorvaldsen, Sigurd Bjarghov, H. Farahmand
Scheduling a residential building short-term to optimize the electricity bill can be difficult with the inclusion of capacity-based grid tariffs. Scheduling the building based on a proposed measured-peak (MP) grid tariff, which is a cost based on the highest peak power over a period, requires the user to consider the impact the current decision-making has in the future. Therefore, the authors propose a mathematical model using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) that tries to represent the long-term impact of current decision-making. The SDP algorithm calculates non-linear expected future cost curves (EFCC) for the building based on the peak power backwards for each day over a month. The uncertainty in load demand and weather are considered using a discrete Markov chain setup. The model is applied to a case study for a Norwegian building with smart control of flexible loads, and compared against methods where the MP grid tariff is not accurately represented, and where the user has perfect information of the whole month. The results showed that the SDP algorithm performs 0.3 % better than a scenario with no accurate way of presenting future impacts, and performs 3.6 % worse compared to a scenario where the user had perfect information.
由于包含基于容量的电网电价,短期规划住宅建筑以优化电费可能很困难。根据拟议的测峰电价(MP)来调度建筑物,这是一种基于一段时间内最高峰值功率的成本,要求用户考虑当前决策对未来的影响。因此,作者提出了一个使用随机动态规划(SDP)的数学模型,试图表示当前决策的长期影响。SDP算法基于一个月内每天的峰值功率反向计算建筑物的非线性预期未来成本曲线(EFCC)。采用离散马尔可夫链的方法考虑了负荷需求和天气的不确定性。该模型被应用于一个挪威建筑的案例研究中,该建筑具有灵活负载的智能控制,并与不准确表示MP电网电价的方法进行了比较,其中用户拥有完整的整个月信息。结果表明,SDP算法的性能比没有准确呈现未来影响的场景好0.3%,与用户拥有完美信息的场景相比,性能差3.6%。
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引用次数: 3
Power System Resiliency During Wildfires Under Increasing Penetration of Electric Vehicles 在电动汽车日益普及的情况下,火灾时电力系统的弹性
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183683
Daniel L. Donaldson, Manuel S. Alvarez‐Alvarado, D. Jayaweera
Rising electric vehicle (EV) adoption is introducing new challenges to the operation and planning of the electric grid. Currently power system planners perform analysis to ensure adequate levels of reliability following contingencies such as loss of a substation. However, existing planning standards do not explicitly mandate studies of the redistribution of EV charging demand that would take place in the case of extreme events. Planning to serve the charging demand from EVs during extreme events is paramount to ensure the resiliency of the grid. This paper presents a novel framework for power system planners to reflect the impact of EV evacuations on grid resiliency during wildfire events. The method consists of resiliency analysis coupled with probabilistic models of load redistribution taking into account potential evacuation routes. A case study using the 2019 update to the IEEE 24 bus Reliability Test System (RTS) is performed to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed strategy. The framework results in a more specific resiliency trapezoid that reflects a more realistic resiliency behaviour of the system.
电动汽车(EV)的普及给电网的运营和规划带来了新的挑战。目前,电力系统规划者进行分析,以确保在突发事件(如变电站的损失)发生后的足够水平的可靠性。然而,现有的规划标准并没有明确要求对极端事件下电动汽车充电需求的重新分配进行研究。规划在极端事件期间满足电动汽车的充电需求对于确保电网的弹性至关重要。本文为电力系统规划者提供了一个新的框架,以反映在野火事件中电动汽车疏散对电网弹性的影响。该方法包括弹性分析和考虑潜在疏散路线的负荷再分配概率模型。使用2019年更新的IEEE 24总线可靠性测试系统(RTS)进行了案例研究,以证明所提出策略的有效性。该框架产生了一个更具体的弹性梯形,反映了系统更现实的弹性行为。
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引用次数: 10
A Sensitivity-based Approach for Optimal Siting of Distributed Energy Resources 基于灵敏度的分布式能源优化选址方法
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183471
Mukesh Gautam, N. Bhusal, M. Benidris, C. Singh, J. Mitra
This paper presents a sensitivity-based approach for the placement of distributed energy resources (DERs) in power systems. The approach is based on the fact that most planning studies utilize some form of optimization, and solutions to these optimization problems provide insights into the sensitivity of many system variables to operating conditions and constraints. However, most of the existing sensitivity-based planning criteria do not capture ranges of effectiveness of these solutions (i.e., ranges of the effectiveness of Lagrange multipliers). The proposed method detects the ranges of effectiveness of Lagrange multipliers and uses them to determine optimal solution alternatives. Profiles for existing generation and loads, and transmission constraints are taken into consideration. The proposed method is used to determine the impacts of DERs at different locations, in presence of a stochastic element (load variability). This method consists of sequentially calculating Lagrange multipliers of the dual solution of the optimization problem for various load buses for all load scenarios. Optimal sizes and sites of resources are jointly determined in a sequential manner based on the validity of active constraints. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through several case studies on various test systems including the IEEE reliability test system (IEEE RTS), the IEEE 14 and 30 bus systems. In comparison with conventional sensitivity-based approaches (i.e., without considering ranges of validity of Lagrange multipliers), the proposed approach provides more accurate results for active constraints.
本文提出了一种基于灵敏度的电力系统分布式能源配置方法。该方法基于这样一个事实,即大多数规划研究都利用了某种形式的优化,这些优化问题的解决方案提供了对许多系统变量对操作条件和约束的敏感性的见解。然而,大多数现有的基于灵敏度的规划标准没有捕捉到这些解决方案的有效性范围(即拉格朗日乘数的有效性范围)。该方法检测拉格朗日乘子的有效范围,并利用它们来确定最优解的备选方案。考虑了现有发电和负荷的概况以及传输约束。所提出的方法用于确定在随机因素(负荷变异性)存在的情况下,DERs在不同位置的影响。该方法包括对各种负载情况下各种负载总线的优化问题的对偶解的拉格朗日乘子的顺序计算。基于活动约束的有效性,以顺序的方式共同确定资源的最优大小和位置。通过多个测试系统的案例研究,包括IEEE可靠性测试系统(IEEE RTS)、IEEE 14和IEEE 30总线系统,证明了该方法的有效性。与传统的基于灵敏度的方法(即不考虑拉格朗日乘子的有效范围)相比,该方法为主动约束提供了更准确的结果。
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引用次数: 1
Linear State and Parameter Estimation for Power Transmission Networks 输电网的线性状态和参数估计
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183473
Aleksandar Jovici, G. Hug
In this paper, a linear framework for the combined state and parameter estimation of an electric power grid observed both by conventional and synchrophasor measurements is proposed. The method can be used for estimating parameters of transmission lines, tap-changers and shunts, while providing unbiased estimates of the bus voltages. The network components with incorrect parameters are identified via measurement residuals. The accuracy of the proposed method is evaluated for various cases of bad parameters using the IEEE 118 bus test system.
本文提出了一个用常规测量和同步相量测量联合估计电网状态和参数的线性框架。该方法可用于估计传输线、分接开关和分流器的参数,同时提供母线电压的无偏估计。通过测量残差识别出参数不正确的网络分量。利用ieee118总线测试系统对各种不良参数情况下所提出方法的精度进行了评估。
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引用次数: 1
Deriving Transformer Equivalent Age for Power System Reliability Assessment from Asset Condition Score 从资产状态分数求电力系统可靠性评估变压器等效年龄
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183412
S. Awadallah, J. Milanović, P. Jarman
The paper proposes a method to derive an equivalent age from asset condition scores in order to incorporate asset condition into existing reliability assessment techniques. The method is related to end-of-life failure to inform replacement decision-making process. The paper projects the age cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a fleet of power transformers into the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of their condition scores. A relationship between condition score and age was formulated by using curve fitting techniques. Case studies were performed on a generic test system to compare system and load point reliability indices using the chronological age and the derived equivalent age. The results showed that using equivalent age resulted in different critical load points than the ones identified when using chronological age.
为了将资产状况纳入现有的可靠性评估技术,本文提出了一种从资产状况得分中推导等效年龄的方法。该方法与报废故障相关,为更换决策过程提供信息。本文将一组电力变压器的年龄累积分布函数(CDF)投影为其状态分数的累积分布函数(CDF)。采用曲线拟合的方法,建立了病情评分与年龄的关系。案例研究是在一个通用的测试系统上进行的,以比较系统和负载点可靠性指标,使用实际年龄和推导出的等效年龄。结果表明,使用等效年龄与使用实足年龄所确定的临界荷载点不同。
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引用次数: 0
Distributionally Robust Co-Optimization of Energy and Reserve Dispatch of Integrated Electricity and Heat System 电热一体化系统能量与储备调度的分布式鲁棒协同优化
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183678
Mikhail Skalyga, Quiwei Wu
The combined operation of integrated energy systems is increasingly becoming a crucial topic for renewable energy dominated power systems operation. Flexibility from the district heating system could be used to deal with the uncertainty of renewable energy sources. We formulate a distributionally robust optimization problem for co-optimizing energy and reserve dispatch of the integrated electricity and heating system with a moment-based ambiguity set. The reserve allocation has been modeled through the participation vectors of the controllable generation units. The total reserve capacity has been defined implicitly and is a function of the uncertainty. The proposed model has been transformed into a second-order cone programming (SOCP) optimization problem by applying convex relaxation and linearization of the district heating network equations. Case studies on the integrated six-bus and seven-node system to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model.
综合能源系统的联合运行日益成为以可再生能源为主的电力系统运行的重要课题。区域供热系统的灵活性可以用来处理可再生能源的不确定性。提出了一个基于矩基模糊集的电力供热一体化系统能量和储备调度协同优化的分布鲁棒优化问题。利用可控发电机组的参与向量建立了备用分配模型。总储备容量是隐式定义的,是不确定性的函数。通过对区域供热网络方程进行凸松弛和线性化处理,将该模型转化为二阶锥规划优化问题。以六总线七节点集成系统为例,验证了该模型的有效性。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)
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