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Cancer genetic counseling in China and Denmark; a comparative anthropological perspective 中国和丹麦的癌症遗传咨询;比较人类学的观点
Pub Date : 2018-11-14 DOI: 10.7146/aul.274.196
M. Terkildsen
This dissertation compares cancer genetic counseling in China and Denmark using an anthropological perspective. It uses anthropological theory to argue how ideas of genetic responsibility and demands for responsibility investments may be understood as the products of everyday practices unfolding within local worlds. Finding very different forms of cancer genetic counseling in China and Denmark, it analytically argues that the local organization of health care provides a salient example of a local world. It uses an STS framework to analyze how differences in the organization of health care in China and Denmark, may be seen as promoting very different webs of everyday human and non-human actors, resulting in very different cancer genetic counseling practices, respectively. For professionels, patients and their families in China and Denmark, these differences lead to very different demands for patient- family collaboration and interdependence, and ultimately to very different local forms of genetic responsibility.
本文从人类学的角度对中国和丹麦的癌症遗传咨询进行了比较。它使用人类学理论来论证遗传责任和责任投资需求的想法如何被理解为在当地世界中展开的日常实践的产物。在中国和丹麦发现了非常不同的癌症遗传咨询形式,分析认为,地方卫生保健组织提供了一个地方世界的突出例子。它使用STS框架来分析中国和丹麦医疗保健组织的差异如何被视为促进日常人类和非人类行为者的非常不同的网络,从而分别导致非常不同的癌症遗传咨询实践。对于中国和丹麦的专业人员、患者及其家属来说,这些差异导致了对患者-家庭合作和相互依赖的截然不同的需求,并最终导致了当地基因责任形式的截然不同。
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引用次数: 2
Den pædagogiske diskurs i læreruddannelsen - formål, indhold og undervisningsmetoder
Pub Date : 2018-11-14 DOI: 10.7146/aul.282.197
Hans Harryson
”The pedagogical discourse in teacher education – purpose, content and teaching methods.          A comparative study of the teacher education in HSN, Drammen, VIA, Aarhus and HI, Reykjavik”This thesis explores the purpose of pedagogical courses (i.e. pedagogy and related fields) in teacher education degrees in the 2010s and how these courses contribute to develop both teacher competences and teaching competences.The thesis is a comparative analysis of three Nordic teacher education degrees, namelyThe teacher education degree at HSN, Drammen (NO)The teacher education degree at VIA, Aarhus (DK)The teacher education degree at HI, Reykjavik (IS)To gain an understanding of the role of the pedagogical courses at the three teacher education degrees, I have employedDocument analysisSemi-structured interviewsThe document analysis has covered both governmental documents (e.g. laws and executive orders) and institutional documents (e.g. curricula).The persons interviewed represent Educators of courses in pedagogyFinal year studentsGraduatesThough using two different research methods, I have employed cross-sectional data indexing. This means I have used the same set of indexing categories for both the document analysis and the interview analysis.In processing the data, I have used etic coding (or predetermined coding). The categories I have operated with in organising the data areTitles and size (in ECTS) of pedagogical coursesLearning outcomesThematic and theoretical contentTeaching methodsMethods of examinationPractical applicationPositioning – differences between pedagogical courses on one side and teaching subjects on the otherIn the thesis, pedagogical courses are seen as a unique discourse in teacher education degrees, in which the teaching profession is expressed in certain ways, and where attempts are made to prepare students in teacher education for their profession in different ways than in teaching subject courses and in practicums.In analysing the data, I use discourse analytic (DA) reading strategies. The reason for using DA is my interest in how policy makers on different levels, educators, students and graduates understand and articulate the pedagogical discipline’s role and unique challenges in teacher education degrees today.Among the central findings of my research are: (1)   The pedagogical discourse is a relatively isolated discourse in teacher education. (2)   The pedagogical discourse has expanded over the past decades and covers today areas that previously belonged to the teaching subjects, the academic field, information technology etc. (3)   Although the pedagogical discourse has expanded and has expanded in different directions in the various countries, a marked ‘typicality’ can be traced across national borders. The pedagogical discourse typically discusses cross-disciplinary themes, includingthe purpose and curricula of public schoolsdemocracylearning and teaching theoriesteaching methods and differentiationevaluationclassroom ma
教师教育中的教学话语——目的、内容和教学方法。HSN, Drammen, VIA, Aarhus和HI, Reykjavik的教师教育比较研究本论文探讨了2010年代教师教育学位中教育学课程(即教育学及相关领域)的目的,以及这些课程如何促进教师能力和教学能力的发展。本文对北欧三个教师教育学位进行了比较分析,分别是:北欧北欧大学的教师教育学位、北欧北欧大学的教师教育学位、北欧北欧北欧国家奥胡斯大学的教师教育学位、北欧北欧国家雷克雅未克大学的教师教育学位,以了解北欧三个教师教育学位中教育学课程的作用。文件分析半结构化面试文件分析既包括政府文件(如法律和行政命令),也包括机构文件(如课程)。受访者代表了教育学课程的教育者、大四学生和毕业生。虽然使用了两种不同的研究方法,但我采用了横断面数据索引。这意味着我对文档分析和访谈分析使用了相同的索引分类集。在处理数据时,我使用了etic编码(或预定编码)。我在组织数据时使用的类别是:教学课程的标题和规模(以ECTS为单位)、学习成果、主题和理论内容、教学方法、考试方法、实际应用、定位——教学课程与教学科目之间的差异。在本文中,教学课程被视为教师教育学位的一个独特话语,在这个话语中,教学专业以某种方式表达。他们试图用不同的方式让学生在教师教育中为他们的职业做好准备,而不是在教授学科课程和实习中。在分析数据时,我使用了语篇分析(DA)阅读策略。使用数据分析的原因是我对不同层次的政策制定者、教育工作者、学生和毕业生如何理解和阐明教学学科在当今教师教育学位中的作用和独特挑战感兴趣。本研究的主要发现有:(1)教师教育中的教学话语是一个相对孤立的话语。(2)在过去的几十年里,教学话语已经扩展,涵盖了今天以前属于教学学科、学术领域、信息技术等领域。(3)尽管教学话语在各个国家已经扩展,并向不同的方向扩展,但一个明显的“典型性”可以跨越国界。教学话语通常讨论跨学科的主题,包括公立学校的目的和课程、民主、学习和教学理论、教学方法和差异化、评估、课堂管理、关系的重要性、学校/家庭合作、包容、特殊教育中的挑战、广泛理解的教师认知(4)在教师教育中,教学学科是最理论化的。因此,在教学课程中,理论与实践的挑战至少和在教师教育的其他学科中一样大——如果不是更大的话。(5)尽管现代教师教育项目以“学习成果”而不是“教学投入”为基础,但教学话语仍然依赖于自己独特的理论。这些理论既不是来自教学学科,也不是来自实践领域,而是来自教学领域的传统渊源理论——心理学、社会学和哲学。(6)在教学话语中,学生阅读了许多为教师职业、教师教育或教师教育的特定课程编写的入门教科书。(7)在教学话语中,学生阅读的主要文献和研究文献数量有限。公立学校的教科书在参考书目中可以说是缺席的。(8)在教学话语中,使用ppt讲课是使用最多的教学方法。几乎没有证据表明教育学课程的教学比其他课程更具示范性和多样性。(9)日常教学和考试都更注重知识目标,而不是技能和能力目标。教育工作者、学生和毕业生都同意,教学领域是一个人能否胜任教学工作的重要组成部分。但他们同时指出,在教学话语中,学生主要学习“像教师一样认识、思考和感受”,而在更小的程度上学习“像教师一样行动”,也就是说,话语主要关注的是学生的思维模式,而不是学生在未来课堂上的表现能力
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引用次数: 0
TractorEYE: Vision-based Real-time Detection for Autonomous Vehicles in Agriculture TractorEYE:基于视觉的农业自动驾驶车辆实时检测
Pub Date : 2018-11-07 DOI: 10.7146/AUL.277.192
P. Christiansen
Agricultural vehicles such as tractors and harvesters have for decades been able to navigate automatically and more efficiently using commercially available products such as auto-steering and tractor-guidance systems. However, a human operator is still required inside the vehicle to ensure the safety of vehicle and especially surroundings such as humans and animals. To get fully autonomous vehicles certified for farming, computer vision algorithms and sensor technologies must detect obstacles with equivalent or better than human-level performance. Furthermore, detections must run in real-time to allow vehicles to actuate and avoid collision. This thesis proposes a detection system (TractorEYE), a dataset (FieldSAFE), and procedures to fuse information from multiple sensor technologies to improve detection of obstacles and to generate a map.  TractorEYE is a multi-sensor detection system for autonomous vehicles in agriculture. The multi-sensor system consists of three hardware synchronized and registered sensors (stereo camera, thermal camera and multi-beam lidar) mounted on/in a ruggedized and water-resistant casing. Algorithms have been developed to run a total of six detection algorithms (four for rgb camera, one for thermal camera and one for a Multi-beam lidar) and fuse detection information in a common format using either 3D positions or Inverse Sensor Models. A GPU powered computational platform is able to run detection algorithms online. For the rgb camera, a deep learning algorithm is proposed DeepAnomaly to perform real-time anomaly detection of distant, heavy occluded and unknown obstacles in agriculture. DeepAnomaly is -- compared to a state-of-the-art object detector Faster R-CNN -- for an agricultural use-case able to detect humans better and at longer ranges (45-90m) using a smaller memory footprint and 7.3-times faster processing. Low memory footprint and fast processing makes DeepAnomaly suitable for real-time applications running on an embedded GPU.  FieldSAFE is a multi-modal dataset for detection of static and moving obstacles in agriculture. The dataset includes synchronized recordings from a rgb camera, stereo camera, thermal camera, 360-degree camera, lidar and radar. Precise localization and pose is provided using IMU and GPS. Ground truth of static and moving obstacles (humans, mannequin dolls, barrels, buildings, vehicles, and vegetation) are available as an annotated orthophoto and GPS coordinates for moving obstacles.  Detection information from multiple detection algorithms and sensors are fused into a map using Inverse Sensor Models and occupancy grid maps.  This thesis presented many scientific contribution and state-of-the-art within perception for autonomous tractors; this includes a dataset, sensor platform, detection algorithms and procedures to perform multi-sensor fusion. Furthermore, important engineering contributions to autonomous farming vehicles are presented such as easily applicable, open-source software
几十年来,拖拉机和收割机等农用车辆已经能够使用自动转向和拖拉机制导系统等商用产品进行自动和更有效的导航。然而,车内仍然需要一名操作员来确保车辆的安全,特别是人类和动物等周围环境的安全。为了让全自动驾驶汽车获得农业认证,计算机视觉算法和传感器技术必须检测到与人类水平相当或更好的障碍物。此外,检测必须实时运行,以使车辆能够启动并避免碰撞。本文提出了一个检测系统(TractorEYE),一个数据集(FieldSAFE),以及融合来自多种传感器技术的信息的程序,以改进障碍物的检测并生成地图。TractorEYE是一个用于农业自动驾驶车辆的多传感器检测系统。多传感器系统由三个硬件同步和注册传感器(立体摄像机、热摄像机和多波束激光雷达)组成,安装在坚固的防水外壳上。算法已经开发出总共运行六种检测算法(四种用于rgb相机,一种用于热成像相机,一种用于多波束激光雷达)和使用3D位置或逆传感器模型的通用格式的引信检测信息。基于GPU的计算平台能够在线运行检测算法。针对rgb相机,提出了一种深度学习算法DeepAnomaly,对农业中遥远、重遮挡和未知障碍物进行实时异常检测。与最先进的物体探测器相比,DeepAnomaly是更快的R-CNN,用于农业用例,能够更好地检测人类,距离更远(45-90米),使用更小的内存占用和7.3倍的处理速度。低内存占用和快速处理使DeepAnomaly适合在嵌入式GPU上运行的实时应用程序。FieldSAFE是一个多模态数据集,用于检测农业中的静态和移动障碍物。数据集包括rgb相机、立体相机、热像仪、360度相机、激光雷达和雷达的同步记录。使用IMU和GPS提供精确的定位和姿态。静态和移动障碍物(人类、人体模型娃娃、木桶、建筑物、车辆和植被)的地面真实值可作为移动障碍物的注释正射影像和GPS坐标。利用逆传感器模型和占用网格图将多种检测算法和传感器的检测信息融合成地图。本文介绍了自动驾驶拖拉机的许多科学贡献和最新技术;这包括数据集、传感器平台、检测算法和执行多传感器融合的程序。此外,还介绍了对自动农用车辆的重要工程贡献,例如易于应用的开源软件包和算法,这些软件包和算法已在端到端实时检测系统中得到验证。本文的贡献已经证明,解决并解决了利用基于摄像头的感知系统的关键问题,这对于实现农业中的自动驾驶汽车至关重要。
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引用次数: 1
Archaeological Fieldwork at Unguja Ukuu, Zanzibar, July 2017 2017年7月,桑给巴尔的Unguja Ukuu考古现场
Pub Date : 2018-10-19 DOI: 10.7146/aul.276.191
F. Sulas, S. Wynne-Jones
This report details activities carried out during a season of archaeological fieldwork at Unguja Ukuu, Zanzibar (July 2017) as part of the Urban transitions in the Zanzibar archipelago project sponsored by the Centre for Urban Network Evolutions, Aarhus University. Field research focussed on 3 main objectives: prospecting for house deposits and excavations of occupation deposits, geoarchaeological survey, and multi-scalar sampling of environmental and archaeological contexts. The report illustrates the field research strategies and interim results.
本报告详细介绍了在桑给巴尔Unguja Ukuu(2017年7月)考古实地考察期间开展的活动,这是由奥胡斯大学城市网络发展中心赞助的桑给巴尔群岛城市转型项目的一部分。实地研究主要集中在3个方面:寻找房屋沉积物和挖掘占用沉积物,地质考古调查,以及环境和考古背景的多标量采样。报告阐述了实地研究的策略和中期结果。
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引用次数: 1
Global Leadership Teams and Cultural Diversity: Exploring how perceptions of culture influence the dynamics of global teams 全球领导团队与文化多样性:探讨文化观念如何影响全球团队的动态
Pub Date : 2018-10-04 DOI: 10.7146/AUL.273.190
M. Thunø, Jan Ifversen
In the 21st century, business engagements are becoming increasingly global, and global teams are now an established form of organising work in multinational organisations. As a result, managing cultural diver-sity within a global team has become an essential part of ensuring motivation, creativity, innovation and efficiency in today’s business world.Global teams are typically composed of a diversity of experiences, frames of references, competencies, information and, not least, cultural backgrounds. As such, they hold a unique potential for delivering high performance in terms of innovative and creative approaches to global management tasks; however, in-stead of focusing on the potentials of cultural diversity, practitioners and studies of global teams tend to approach cultural diversity as a barrier to team success. This study explores some of the barriers that cultural diversity poses but also discusses its potential to leverage high performance in a global context.Our study highlights the importance of how team leaders and team members perceive ‘culture’ as both a concept and a social practice. We take issue with a notion of culture as a relatively fixed and homogeneous set of values, norms and attitudes shared by people of national communities; it is such a notion of culture that tends to underlie understandings that highlight the irreconcilability of cultural differences.Applying a more dynamic and context-dependent approach to culture as a meaning system that people negotiate and use to interpret the world, this study explores how global leadership teams can best reap the benefits of cultural diversity in relation to specific challenging areas of intercultural team work, such as leadership style, decision making, relationship building, strategy process, and communication styles. Based on a close textual interpretation of 31 semi-structured interviews with members of global leader-ship teams in eight Danish-owned global companies, our study identified different discourses and per-ceptions of culture and cultural diversity. For leaders of the global leadership teams (Danish/European) and other European team members, three understandings of cultural diversity in their global teams were prominent:1)Cultural diversity was not an issue2)Cultural diversity was acknowledged as mainly a liability. Diversities were expressed through adifference in national cultures and could typically be subsumed under a relatively fixed numberof invariable and distinct characteristics.3)Cultural diversity was an asset and expressions of culture had to be observed in the situationand could not simply be derived from prior understandings of cultural differences.A clear result of our study was that those leaders of global teams who drew on discourses of the Asian ‘Other’ adherred to the first two understandings of cultural diversity and preferred leadership styles that were either patriarchal or self-defined as ‘Scandinavian’. Whereas those leaders who drew on discours
在21世纪,商业活动正变得越来越全球化,全球团队现在是跨国组织组织工作的一种既定形式。因此,在当今的商业世界中,管理全球团队中的文化多样性已成为确保动力、创造力、创新和效率的重要组成部分。全球团队通常由不同的经验、参考框架、能力、信息以及文化背景组成。因此,他们拥有独特的潜力,在全球管理任务的创新和创造性方法方面提供高绩效;然而,全球团队的实践者和研究人员并没有关注文化多样性的潜力,而是倾向于将文化多样性视为团队成功的障碍。本研究探讨了文化多样性带来的一些障碍,但也讨论了其在全球背景下提高绩效的潜力。我们的研究强调了团队领导者和团队成员如何将“文化”视为一种概念和社会实践的重要性。我们认为文化是一套相对固定的、同质的价值观、规范和态度,是各国人民共有的;正是这样一种文化观念,往往成为强调文化差异不可调和的理解的基础。本研究采用一种更加动态和情境依赖的方法,将文化作为人们谈判和解释世界的意义系统,探讨全球领导团队如何在与跨文化团队工作的特定挑战领域(如领导风格、决策制定、关系建立、战略过程和沟通风格)相关的情况下,最好地从文化多样性中获益。基于对8家丹麦跨国公司全球领导团队成员进行的31次半结构化访谈的详细文本解读,我们的研究确定了不同的话语和对文化和文化多样性的看法。对于全球领导团队的领导者(丹麦/欧洲)和其他欧洲团队成员来说,他们在全球团队中对文化多样性的三个理解是突出的:1)文化多样性不是一个问题;2)文化多样性被认为主要是一种负担。多样性是通过国家文化的差异来表达的,通常可以被归入相对固定数量的不变的和明显的特征。3)文化多样性是一种资产,文化的表达必须在情境中观察,不能简单地从对文化差异的先前理解中得出。我们研究的一个明显结果是,那些利用亚洲“他者”话语的全球团队领导者坚持对文化多样性的前两种理解,并更喜欢父权制或自定义为“斯堪的纳维亚”的领导风格。然而,那些将文化话语作为动态和协商的社会实践的领导者坚持对文化多样性的第三种理解,并倾向于采用差异化和分析性的方法来领导他们的团队。我们还关注了具有全球团队所在国家背景的团队成员的看法。这些“本地”团队成员对他们自己的文化背景、公司的民族文化以及他们在团队中的地位表达了细致入微和多方面的观点,这使他们能够轻松地在文化的本质主义观念之间导航,同时保持对现有文化霸权的批判立场。他们认识到他们的当地知识和语言能力的价值,但是,对于那些对文化多样性持消极或本质主义观点的小组中的当地成员来说,他们的文化风格和具体的、非当地的能力很难得到承认。我们的研究表明,基于主流社会文化话语的全球团队成员感知文化的方式,显著影响了全球领导团队对角色和职位的理解。我们发现文化话语被用来解释团队成员之间的差异和相似之处,这深刻地影响了全球团队的社会实践和动态。我们得出的结论是,只有团队领导者高度意识到团队内部不同背景下的多重视角,才有能力警惕文化多样性,并在利用差异和相似点实现包容性和动态团队实践方面表现出敏捷性。
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引用次数: 0
Iodine in Danish Groundwater and Drinking Water 丹麦地下水和饮用水中的碘
Pub Date : 2018-09-19 DOI: 10.7146/AUL.272.189
D. Voutchkova
This dissertation is a result of a three-year PhD project which was part of the GEOCENTER research project “Iodine in the hydrological cycle of Denmark: implications for human health” , jointly financed by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) and Aarhus University (AU). The study was conducted between August 2011 and July 2014 under the main supervision of Soren M. Kristiansen (AU) and Birgitte G. Hansen (GEUS).  In my PhD dissertation, I address the following research objectives: 1) to map iodine concentration and speciation in drinking water and  groundwater in Denmark, 2) to study the spatial patterns and to elucidate the factors governing them, and 3) to evaluate the importance of the spatial variation of drinking water iodine to the populations’ nutrition (health). To do this, I used two types of data: 1) from two sampling campaigns designed as part of this project (drinking water: 2013, groudnwater and drinking water: 2012), and 2) historical data extracted from the public nationwide geological and hydrological database, Jupiter. (two groudnwater datasets: 1933-2011 and 2011-2014). See the extended Abstract (PhD Dissertation) for further details on results, implications, and potential for further research.  This PhD dissertation is paper-based type (not a monography) and it includes a Summary Chapter, followed by five manuscripts. Four of the manuscripts are now published in peer-reviewed journals, so those have been removed from the file. No other changes to the content of the PhD dissertation have been made post-submission to AU.
本论文是一个为期三年的博士项目的成果,该项目是GEOCENTER研究项目“丹麦水循环中的碘:对人类健康的影响”的一部分,该项目由丹麦和格陵兰地质调查局(GEUS)和奥胡斯大学(AU)共同资助。该研究于2011年8月至2014年7月在Soren M. Kristiansen (AU)和Birgitte G. Hansen (GEUS)的主要监督下进行。在我的博士论文中,我的研究目标如下:1)绘制丹麦饮用水和地下水中的碘浓度和形态图;2)研究其空间格局并阐明其控制因素;3)评估饮用水碘的空间变化对人口营养(健康)的重要性。为此,我使用了两种类型的数据:1)来自作为该项目一部分设计的两次采样活动(饮用水:2013年,地下水和饮用水:2012年),以及2)从公共全国地质和水文数据库Jupiter提取的历史数据。(两个地下水数据集:1933-2011年和2011-2014年)。请参阅扩展摘要(博士论文),以获得有关结果,含义和进一步研究潜力的进一步细节。这篇博士论文是基于纸张的类型(不是专著),它包括一个总结章,其次是五个手稿。其中四份手稿现在发表在同行评议的期刊上,所以这些手稿已经从档案中删除了。博士论文提交给非盟后,未对论文内容进行其他修改。
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引用次数: 1
Production planning of energy systems 能源系统的生产计划
Pub Date : 2018-08-14 DOI: 10.7146/aul.270.188
M. Dahl
This dissertation is a collection of research articles that assess economic and operational risk in production planning of district heating. District heating systems are typically coupled to the electricity system through cogeneration and power-to-heat technologies, and production planners must account for uncertainty stemming from changing weather, demands and prices. Years of high-resolution data from the district heating system in Aarhus, Denmark have been used throughout the project to model the system and estimate uncertainties. Risk management tools have been developed to aid district heating operators and investment decision makers in short-, medium- and long-term production planning. Short-term production planning involves commitment of production units and trading on the electricity markets and relies on forecasts of the heat load. Weather predictions are a significant source of uncertainty for heat load forecasts, because the heat load is highly weather-dependent. I introduce the method of ensemble weather predictions from meteorology to heat load forecasting and create a probabilistic load forecast to estimate the weather-based uncertainty. Better estimates of the weather-based uncertainty can be applied to optimize supply temperature control and reduce heat losses without compromising security of supply in heat distribution systems. Consumer behavior is another substantial, but difficult to capture, source of uncertainty in short-term heat load forecasts. I include local holiday data in state-of-the-art load forecasts to improve accuracy and capture how load patterns change depending on the behavior of the consumers. A small overall improvement in forecast accuracy is observed. The improvement is more significant on holidays and special occasions that are difficult to forecast accurately. In medium-term production planning, there can be substantial economic potential in performing summer shutdown of certain production units. The shutdown decision carries significant risk, due to changing seasonal weather patterns. Based on 38 years of weather data, the uncertainty on the timing of the optimal decision is estimated. This information is used to develop practical decision rules that are robust to rare weather events and capable of realizing more than 90% of the potential savings from summer shutdown. Long-term production planning decisions regarding investments in future district heating production systems are affected by uncertainty from changing electricity prices, fuel prices and investment cost for technology. The effects of these uncertainties on a cost-optimal heat production system are explored, using well-established production and storage technologies and extensive multivariate sensitivity analysis. The optimal technology choices are highly stable and, taxes aside, large heat pumps and heat storages dominate the cost-optimal heat production systems. However, the uncertainty on the exact capacity allocation is substantial. Exclud
本文是对集中供热生产计划中经济风险和运行风险评估的研究成果的汇总。区域供热系统通常通过热电联产和电热技术与电力系统相结合,生产计划人员必须考虑到天气、需求和价格变化带来的不确定性。多年来来自丹麦奥胡斯区域供热系统的高分辨率数据已在整个项目中用于系统建模和估计不确定性。风险管理工具已经开发出来,以帮助区域供热运营商和投资决策者进行短期、中期和长期的生产计划。短期生产计划涉及生产单位的承诺和电力市场上的交易,并依赖于热负荷的预测。天气预报是热负荷预报的一个重要不确定性来源,因为热负荷高度依赖天气。本文将集合天气预报方法从气象学引入到热负荷预报中,并建立了一个概率负荷预报来估计基于天气的不确定性。更好地估计基于天气的不确定性可以应用于优化供应温度控制和减少热损失,而不影响供热系统的供应安全。消费者行为是短期热负荷预测中另一个重要但难以捕捉的不确定性来源。我将本地假日数据包含在最先进的负荷预测中,以提高准确性,并捕捉负荷模式如何根据消费者的行为而变化。观测到预报精度总体上略有提高。这种改善在节假日和难以准确预测的特殊场合更为显著。在中期生产计划中,夏季关闭某些生产单元可能具有巨大的经济潜力。由于季节天气模式的变化,关闭的决定有很大的风险。基于38年的天气数据,对最佳决策时间的不确定性进行了估计。这些信息用于制定实用的决策规则,这些规则对罕见的天气事件具有很强的鲁棒性,并且能够实现夏季停工90%以上的潜在节省。关于未来区域供热生产系统投资的长期生产规划决策受到电力价格、燃料价格和技术投资成本变化的不确定性的影响。利用成熟的生产和储存技术以及广泛的多元敏感性分析,探讨了这些不确定性对成本最优产热系统的影响。最佳的技术选择是高度稳定的,抛开税收不谈,大型热泵和蓄热装置在成本最优的产热系统中占主导地位。然而,确切的容量分配存在很大的不确定性。排除基于化石燃料的产热增加了系统成本的不确定性,但大大降低了最优容量分配的不确定性。
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引用次数: 0
Meta-syntese af kvalitative studier
Pub Date : 2018-08-10 DOI: 10.7146/AUL.269.187
O. Kristensen
This article is written for students and PhD students in psychology. The article is in Danish. The purpose of this article is to introduce a special kind of review of existing literature known as meta-synthesis. In a meta-synthesis, qualitative studies are integrated or compared and, as a result, the essence of meta-synthesis is as a result an analytic generalization of findings in qualitative studies. Stages in meta-synthesis are outlined, especially emphasizing the interchange between research topic and aim, the systematic literature search and analysis of identified studies. An example of a meta-synthesis is used to illustrate the stages. Finally, the article includes a comparison of the knowledge derived from meta-analysis of quantitative studies and meta-synthesis of qualitative studies. The conclusion is that meta-synthesis is well suited for generating theory and may improve decision-making about intervention.
这篇文章是写给心理学专业的学生和博士生的。这篇文章是丹麦文的。本文的目的是介绍一种特殊的综述现有文献被称为元综合。在元综合中,定性研究被整合或比较,因此,元综合的本质是对定性研究结果的分析概括。概述了meta综合的各个阶段,特别强调了研究主题与目标之间的交换,系统的文献检索和已识别研究的分析。本文用一个元综合的例子来说明这些阶段。最后,本文对定量研究的元分析和定性研究的元综合所获得的知识进行了比较。综上所述,元综合非常适合于理论生成,并可能改善干预决策。
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引用次数: 0
Unge udsatte mødre og deres små børn
Pub Date : 2018-06-27 DOI: 10.7146/AUL.264.185
Kirsten Elisa Petersen, Kornelia Kraglund
Denne rapport praesenterer teoretiske, metodiske og analytiske resultater af et forskningsprojekt, der har haft fokus pa unge modre under 24 ar og deres sma born. Formalet med forskningsprojektet har bevaeget sig rundt om tre samtidige spor:At udvikle forskningsbaseret viden om udsatte unge modre ud fra deres eget perspektiv og ud fra deres egne erfaringer.At udvikle forskningsbaseret viden om udsatte unge modre og deres borns livsforhold, livsbetingelser og udviklingsmuligheder.Fremadrettet at udvikle viden – sammen med de unge modre – om forebyggende indsatser rettet mod unge modre og deres sma born.
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引用次数: 0
Skolefaglige kort- og langtidseffekter af intensive læringsforløb: Egmont Fondens signaturprojekt Lær for Livet. Fagligt notat fra den kvantitative del af følgeforskning af Lær for Livet Nr. 1
Pub Date : 2018-06-27 DOI: 10.7146/AUL.265.184
C. Kjeldsen, André Torre, Søren Langager
Dette er et fagligt notat, der bygger pa data fra folgeforskningen af Egmont Fondens laeringsprogram Laer for Livet. Nationalt og internationalt har kvantitativt dokumenterede skolefaglige langtidseffekter af projekter, der er bygget op omkring intensive laeringsforlob/turbolaering, vaeret efterlyst. I Danmark har sporgsmalet om faglig langtidseffekt generelt optaget savel projektsegmenterne som Undervisningsministeriet, og svaret er fortsat, at der savnes dokumenteret forskningsbaseret viden herom. Der er nu forskningsgrupper og konsulentfirmaer, der er pa vej med skolefaglige effektstudier, blandt andet ifm. med Lokkefondens DrengeAkademiet og Undervisningsministeriets satspuljeprojekt ’Turboforlob for fagligt udsatte elever’, og sammen med andre undersogelser vil der i de kommende ar komme mere forskningsbaseret viden til belysning af skolefaglige langtidseffekter af intensive laeringsforlob og turbolaering. Egmont Fondens Laer for Livet-projekt har fra starten vaeret designet med lobende indhentning af fagligt sammenlignelige test fra camp til camp, og det har gjort det muligt for folgeforskningsprojektet at give kvalificerede bud pa og svar pa sporgsmalet om skolefaglige kort- og langtidseffekter af intensive laeringsforlob som bidrag til faelles viden pa tvaers af de forskellige projekter og initiativer i tilknytning til intensive laeringsforlob og turbolaering.
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引用次数: 0
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