There is relatively little known about the geographic mobility of the elderly in general. Despite the stereotype of retiring in Florida, recent work has documented very little home equity changes among the elderly (Venti and Wise 2002, 2004; Anderson, French, and Lam 2004; Fisher et al. 2007), and that most home equity changes are precipitated by a major life event, such as a spouse passing or entry into a nursing home. Haverstick and Zhivan (2009) find that the 2-year moving rate for homeowners is less than 10 percent, and that most of those moves are short-distance (less than 20 miles)…
一般来说，人们对老年人的地理流动性知之甚少。尽管在佛罗里达州退休是一种刻板印象，但最近的研究表明，老年人的房屋净值变化很小(Venti和Wise 2002, 2004;Anderson, French, and Lam 2004;Fisher et al. 2007)，并且大多数房屋净值的变化都是由重大生活事件引起的，例如配偶去世或进入养老院。Haverstick和Zhivan(2009)发现，房主的2年搬家率不到10%，而且大多数搬家都是短距离的(不到20英里)……
{"title":"Geographic Mobility Among Residents in Seniors Housing and Care Communities: Evidence from the Residents Financial Survey","authors":"Norma B. Coe, A. Wu","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2316857","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2316857","url":null,"abstract":"There is relatively little known about the geographic mobility of the elderly in general. Despite the stereotype of retiring in Florida, recent work has documented very little home equity changes among the elderly (Venti and Wise 2002, 2004; Anderson, French, and Lam 2004; Fisher et al. 2007), and that most home equity changes are precipitated by a major life event, such as a spouse passing or entry into a nursing home. Haverstick and Zhivan (2009) find that the 2-year moving rate for homeowners is less than 10 percent, and that most of those moves are short-distance (less than 20 miles)…","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132617040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study uses disclosure data from 7,043 Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) in the United States to examine differences in client wealth by type of compensation. We find that firms charging commissions and hourly fees have a higher proportion of low net worth clients. Wealthier clients are more likely to be charged performance-based fees and fees based on assets under management. RIA firms that charge commissions are more likely to provide financial planning services and to have a larger number of employees and lower assets under management. Investment advisors who cater to lower net worth clients are more likely to rely on commission compensation, suggesting that policy restricting compensation may impact the provision of advising services to average investors.
{"title":"Compensation and Client Wealth Among U.S. Investment Advisors","authors":"Luke Dean, Michael S. Finke","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1802628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1802628","url":null,"abstract":"This study uses disclosure data from 7,043 Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) in the United States to examine differences in client wealth by type of compensation. We find that firms charging commissions and hourly fees have a higher proportion of low net worth clients. Wealthier clients are more likely to be charged performance-based fees and fees based on assets under management. RIA firms that charge commissions are more likely to provide financial planning services and to have a larger number of employees and lower assets under management. Investment advisors who cater to lower net worth clients are more likely to rely on commission compensation, suggesting that policy restricting compensation may impact the provision of advising services to average investors.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125431807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
To determine how asset values of older workers affect their future retirement decisions, it is important to take into account how asset values change over asset cycles. This study uses HRS data from waves 1992 through 2008 together with restricted SSA data on geographic location to estimate a model of the age at first self-reported retirement for the subsample of married males. The model covariates include demographic variables, workplace variables, non-housing financial wealth, housing equity and size of mortgage. The proportional hazard estimates are, for the most part, significant and of the correct sign. The estimated models replicate the decisions of the sample members for the period from 2000 to 2007. The models do not replicate the sharp drop in the aggregate retirement rate in the year 2008, the final year of the sample, which is also the first sample year in which non-housing financial wealth and housing equity both declined throughout the United States.
{"title":"Asset Cycles and the Retirement Decisions of Older Workers","authors":"Jan Ondrich","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1695157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1695157","url":null,"abstract":"To determine how asset values of older workers affect their future retirement decisions, it is important to take into account how asset values change over asset cycles. This study uses HRS data from waves 1992 through 2008 together with restricted SSA data on geographic location to estimate a model of the age at first self-reported retirement for the subsample of married males. The model covariates include demographic variables, workplace variables, non-housing financial wealth, housing equity and size of mortgage. The proportional hazard estimates are, for the most part, significant and of the correct sign. The estimated models replicate the decisions of the sample members for the period from 2000 to 2007. The models do not replicate the sharp drop in the aggregate retirement rate in the year 2008, the final year of the sample, which is also the first sample year in which non-housing financial wealth and housing equity both declined throughout the United States.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133906369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using data from several sources, we show that households nearing retirement have lower rates of housing distress than younger households, as measured by arrears and foreclosure rates. However, almost all of the housing wealth gains observed for cohorts aged 51-56 between 1992 and 2004 were erased by 2010, while their mortgages have grown throughout. As a consequence, their loan-to-value ratios are considerably higher, though the percentage paying more than 30 percent of their household income toward their mortgage remains flat. Worrisomely, their financial wealth also declined between 2004 and 2010. Declines in house prices will adversely affect households that need to liquidate housing wealth, and rising mortgage obligations will increase pressure on retirement resources. We develop an econometric model to show factors associated with housing distress and then use the results to forecast housing distress among older households through 2012. We project that the risk of arrears will increase to 3.4 percent in 2010 and 4.4 percent by 2012. We also find that 6.7 percent of HRS households have children or other relatives who are facing housing distress, potentially putting further pressure on their retirement preparedness.
{"title":"What is the Impact of Foreclosures on Retirement Security?","authors":"A. Webb, Leora Friedberg, Irena Dushi","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1711929","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1711929","url":null,"abstract":"Using data from several sources, we show that households nearing retirement have lower rates of housing distress than younger households, as measured by arrears and foreclosure rates. However, almost all of the housing wealth gains observed for cohorts aged 51-56 between 1992 and 2004 were erased by 2010, while their mortgages have grown throughout. As a consequence, their loan-to-value ratios are considerably higher, though the percentage paying more than 30 percent of their household income toward their mortgage remains flat. Worrisomely, their financial wealth also declined between 2004 and 2010. Declines in house prices will adversely affect households that need to liquidate housing wealth, and rising mortgage obligations will increase pressure on retirement resources. We develop an econometric model to show factors associated with housing distress and then use the results to forecast housing distress among older households through 2012. We project that the risk of arrears will increase to 3.4 percent in 2010 and 4.4 percent by 2012. We also find that 6.7 percent of HRS households have children or other relatives who are facing housing distress, potentially putting further pressure on their retirement preparedness.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132477538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the historical record of the so-called 4% rule, the popular guideline for sustainable real annual withdrawals in a self funded retirement. Our findings indicate that a withdrawal plan following this rule (“4R”) carries an historical risk of failure for a long retirement that is much higher than generally acknowledged. For example, we find that 15% of the historical 35-year retirements failed when funded with equal parts of stocks and bonds. The “real” withdrawal plans that generated no historical failures were all less than 4%, sometimes far less, when retirements exceeded 25 years. The historical failure rates that we find for a 5R plan are higher than a 4R plan by a factor of at least three for all retirement periods. The historical failures are not random. Rather they occur in clusters of years in which the majority of new retirement withdrawal plans fail. A key driver of these failures was a rapid, significant and lasting increase in the rate of inflation - this event increased withdrawals and contributed to a declining real rate of return that was ultimately unable to support the withdrawal plan. Although TIPS bonds and inflation-adjusted annuities are both too new for historical analysis, we note they may offer an opportunity to curtail income plan failures in the future. This is because they (1) offer a known real rate of return and (2) adjust for inflation close to the time at which inflation impacts withdrawals. Our review of the prior literature and a detailed description of the methodology used in the study appear at the end of the paper, after the Summary and Conclusions section.
{"title":"Revisiting Retirement Withdrawal Plans and Their Historical Rates of Return","authors":"Christopher W. O'flinn, Felix Schirripa","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1641382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1641382","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the historical record of the so-called 4% rule, the popular guideline for sustainable real annual withdrawals in a self funded retirement. Our findings indicate that a withdrawal plan following this rule (“4R”) carries an historical risk of failure for a long retirement that is much higher than generally acknowledged. For example, we find that 15% of the historical 35-year retirements failed when funded with equal parts of stocks and bonds. The “real” withdrawal plans that generated no historical failures were all less than 4%, sometimes far less, when retirements exceeded 25 years. The historical failure rates that we find for a 5R plan are higher than a 4R plan by a factor of at least three for all retirement periods. The historical failures are not random. Rather they occur in clusters of years in which the majority of new retirement withdrawal plans fail. A key driver of these failures was a rapid, significant and lasting increase in the rate of inflation - this event increased withdrawals and contributed to a declining real rate of return that was ultimately unable to support the withdrawal plan. Although TIPS bonds and inflation-adjusted annuities are both too new for historical analysis, we note they may offer an opportunity to curtail income plan failures in the future. This is because they (1) offer a known real rate of return and (2) adjust for inflation close to the time at which inflation impacts withdrawals. Our review of the prior literature and a detailed description of the methodology used in the study appear at the end of the paper, after the Summary and Conclusions section.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116692018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines several aspects of Israel's restructured retirement benefits system, focusing on distributive effects. We characterize 10 stylized representative prototypes of Israeli households, reflecting common demographic, wage and employment profiles. These prototypes are used to examine the joint effects of tax benefits for pensions and the public Old Age Allowances program's contributions and disbursements on the lifetime income distribution, net replacement rates at retirement and lifetime consumption smoothing. We find that the system is neutral in terms of its effect on lifetime income distribution, except for the top income decile which gains somewhat less than the others. We also find that pension savings result in a net loss for many low-income households, unsmooth their consumption and lead to "too high" post-retirement net replacement rates. Furthermore, evidence from a unique dataset point to rational and active behavior of most households with respect to these incentives. These findings suggest that the parameters of the retirement-age benefits system should be adjusted following the introduction of mandatory pensions.
{"title":"Distributive Effects of Israel's Pension System","authors":"Adi Brender","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1499231","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1499231","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines several aspects of Israel's restructured retirement benefits system, focusing on distributive effects. We characterize 10 stylized representative prototypes of Israeli households, reflecting common demographic, wage and employment profiles. These prototypes are used to examine the joint effects of tax benefits for pensions and the public Old Age Allowances program's contributions and disbursements on the lifetime income distribution, net replacement rates at retirement and lifetime consumption smoothing. We find that the system is neutral in terms of its effect on lifetime income distribution, except for the top income decile which gains somewhat less than the others. We also find that pension savings result in a net loss for many low-income households, unsmooth their consumption and lead to \"too high\" post-retirement net replacement rates. Furthermore, evidence from a unique dataset point to rational and active behavior of most households with respect to these incentives. These findings suggest that the parameters of the retirement-age benefits system should be adjusted following the introduction of mandatory pensions.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115549575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Joan Gil, M. Lopez-Garcia, Jorge Onrubia, Concepció Patxot, Guadalupe Souto
The need for long-term fiscal projections is self evident. Of these projections, pension expenditure is one of the most important since firstly it represents a large share of total expenditure, and secondly because of the positive correlation between this variable and demographic ageing. In this paper, we develop a model to project contributory pension expenditures in the Spanish Social Security System disaggregating the results by pension category, social security regime and sex. The most salient of the results obtained is the expected steady growth of total expenditure in contributory pensions. This would lie around 15% of GDP around 2045 compared to its initial level of barely 8% even though the baseline scenario incorporates a substantial recovery of employment and female participation rates. By pension categories, retirement pensions are those that determine the tendency of total expenditure evolution. Interesting conclusions can also be extracted from the analysis by sex. For instance, even accounting for an increase in female retirement pensions due to their higher participation, the corresponding increase in widow male pensions implies a higher total increase of the total number of contributory pensions accruing to men.
{"title":"A Projection Model of the Contributory Pension Expenditure of the Spanish Social Security System: 2004-50","authors":"Joan Gil, M. Lopez-Garcia, Jorge Onrubia, Concepció Patxot, Guadalupe Souto","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1996491","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1996491","url":null,"abstract":"The need for long-term fiscal projections is self evident. Of these projections, pension expenditure is one of the most important since firstly it represents a large share of total expenditure, and secondly because of the positive correlation between this variable and demographic ageing. In this paper, we develop a model to project contributory pension expenditures in the Spanish Social Security System disaggregating the results by pension category, social security regime and sex. The most salient of the results obtained is the expected steady growth of total expenditure in contributory pensions. This would lie around 15% of GDP around 2045 compared to its initial level of barely 8% even though the baseline scenario incorporates a substantial recovery of employment and female participation rates. By pension categories, retirement pensions are those that determine the tendency of total expenditure evolution. Interesting conclusions can also be extracted from the analysis by sex. For instance, even accounting for an increase in female retirement pensions due to their higher participation, the corresponding increase in widow male pensions implies a higher total increase of the total number of contributory pensions accruing to men.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126508792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forces create and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (1999) document several of the internationally and historically common features of social security programs, and explore political' theories of Social Security. This paper discusses the efficiency theories,' which view creation of the SS program as a full or partial solution to some market failure. Efficiency explanations of social security include the SS as welfare for the elderly', the retirement increases productivity to optimally manage human capital externalities', optimal retirement insurance', the prodigal father problem', the misguided Keynesian', the optimal longevity insurance', the government economizing transaction costs' and the return on human capital investment'. We also analyze four narrative' theories of social security: the chain letter theory', the lump of labor theory', the monopoly capitalism theory', and the Sub-but-Nearly-Optimal policy response to private pensions theory'. The political and efficiency explanations are compared with the international and historical facts and used to derive implications for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan. Most of the explanations suggest that forced savings does not increase welfare, and may decrease it.
{"title":"Social Security in Theory and Practice (Ii): Efficiency Theories, Narrative Theories, and Implications for Reform","authors":"C. Mulligan, Xavier Sala-i-Martin","doi":"10.3386/W7119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W7119","url":null,"abstract":"166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forces create and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (1999) document several of the internationally and historically common features of social security programs, and explore political' theories of Social Security. This paper discusses the efficiency theories,' which view creation of the SS program as a full or partial solution to some market failure. Efficiency explanations of social security include the SS as welfare for the elderly', the retirement increases productivity to optimally manage human capital externalities', optimal retirement insurance', the prodigal father problem', the misguided Keynesian', the optimal longevity insurance', the government economizing transaction costs' and the return on human capital investment'. We also analyze four narrative' theories of social security: the chain letter theory', the lump of labor theory', the monopoly capitalism theory', and the Sub-but-Nearly-Optimal policy response to private pensions theory'. The political and efficiency explanations are compared with the international and historical facts and used to derive implications for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan. Most of the explanations suggest that forced savings does not increase welfare, and may decrease it.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115006407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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