Early retirement is a popular goal for many Americans but little research has been conducted to investigate the impact of this decision. This paper estimates the effects of retirement on several mental health outcomes using an ordered-probit model. Results suggest that retirement is negatively related to mental health in four of the tested categories: cognitive skills, mental status, memory, and Alzheimer’s symptoms. This implies that early retirement may have hidden costs and that working longer may help to preserve mental health.
{"title":"The Hidden Risk of Retirement: The Impact of Retirement on Mental Health","authors":"C. Crouch","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3254547","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3254547","url":null,"abstract":"Early retirement is a popular goal for many Americans but little research has been conducted to investigate the impact of this decision. This paper estimates the effects of retirement on several mental health outcomes using an ordered-probit model. Results suggest that retirement is negatively related to mental health in four of the tested categories: cognitive skills, mental status, memory, and Alzheimer’s symptoms. This implies that early retirement may have hidden costs and that working longer may help to preserve mental health.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134508361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Kufuor (New Patriotic Party) administration of 2000-2008 implemented substantial reforms of the contributory social insurance system (including the introduction of a national health insurance scheme and a new 'three tier' pensions system), and introduced a range of social assistance schemes targeted at the 'extreme poor'. This paper analyses the factors that drove policy reform and the broad cross-party consensus that emerged despite highly competitive elections. Electoral dynamics played a significant role, and this is reflected in the political 'messaging' of parties and candidates during election campaigns, although there is little evidence of the electoral salience of social protection. Other important factors include a complex set of 'agendas' from actors that include domestic bureaucrats, international agencies, donors, and domestic politicians. These interacted in complex ways with elite alignments that have favoured or worked against pro-poor policy reform at various stages. The paper draws on studies of election campaigns and political parties, electoral dynamics, the 'political settlement' in Ghana and public opinion data.
{"title":"The Politics of Social Protection in Ghana: Policy Reform in a Competitive African Democracy (2000-2014)","authors":"E. Grebe","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2960836","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2960836","url":null,"abstract":"The Kufuor (New Patriotic Party) administration of 2000-2008 implemented substantial reforms of the contributory social insurance system (including the introduction of a national health insurance scheme and a new 'three tier' pensions system), and introduced a range of social assistance schemes targeted at the 'extreme poor'. This paper analyses the factors that drove policy reform and the broad cross-party consensus that emerged despite highly competitive elections. Electoral dynamics played a significant role, and this is reflected in the political 'messaging' of parties and candidates during election campaigns, although there is little evidence of the electoral salience of social protection. Other important factors include a complex set of 'agendas' from actors that include domestic bureaucrats, international agencies, donors, and domestic politicians. These interacted in complex ways with elite alignments that have favoured or worked against pro-poor policy reform at various stages. The paper draws on studies of election campaigns and political parties, electoral dynamics, the 'political settlement' in Ghana and public opinion data.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128472817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A 1991 legal change extended the coverage of pensions in rural Brazil to include large numbers of previously uncovered women, conditional on subjective work requirements. This change was accompanied by an increase in female employment, in particular among newly covered women. This paper analyzes the extent to which a causal relationship existed between these two phenomena; specifically, the extent to which women increased their labor supply in response to future pension eligibility. Using a differences-in-differences approach, I find evidence that pension eligibility increased the labor supply of rural women in two ways. First, I find that rural women made immediately eligible by age temporarily increased labor supply, and second, I find that at least some cohorts of younger rural women eligible in the future also increased labor supply, presumably as an anticipatory response. These results shed light on the capacity of elderly workers to respond to financial incentives for old-age labor supply participation, in addition to the extent to which younger workers might be forward-looking in their responses to retirement incentives.
{"title":"Extending the 'Social Safety Net': Female Labor Supply and Pension Eligibility","authors":"Benjamin Thompson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2957912","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2957912","url":null,"abstract":"A 1991 legal change extended the coverage of pensions in rural Brazil to include large numbers of previously uncovered women, conditional on subjective work requirements. This change was accompanied by an increase in female employment, in particular among newly covered women. This paper analyzes the extent to which a causal relationship existed between these two phenomena; specifically, the extent to which women increased their labor supply in response to future pension eligibility. Using a differences-in-differences approach, I find evidence that pension eligibility increased the labor supply of rural women in two ways. First, I find that rural women made immediately eligible by age temporarily increased labor supply, and second, I find that at least some cohorts of younger rural women eligible in the future also increased labor supply, presumably as an anticipatory response. These results shed light on the capacity of elderly workers to respond to financial incentives for old-age labor supply participation, in addition to the extent to which younger workers might be forward-looking in their responses to retirement incentives.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125594722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
While aging population is a worldwide issue, it is more profound in Asia. Reverse mortgages are useful instrument to alleviate the continuous and steady consumption needs of retirees. The “puzzle” is why there has been rather modest uptake even in the US, UK, and Korea where it has been available for a considerable time. We propose a structural design for a reverse mortgage contract that works across geopolitical borders, including key design criteria, issues of education/marketing for both the retirees and their beneficiaries, and a feasible approach to funding reverse mortgage with reliable, cost-efficient supply of funds available consistently so that the reverse mortgages can be supported as a “standard” consideration for everyone considering for retirement. We will also examine the role of the government as regulator and as risk-bearing provider, in the reverse mortgage process. Our preliminary work suggests that an effective institutional means of funding reverse mortgages is likely to be considerable different from current practice. We also discuss how the possible obstacles, particularly Asian traditions, could be solved so as to allow reverse mortgage to be an instrument for improving retirement.
{"title":"On an Efficient Design of Reverse Mortgages: A Possible Solution for Aging Asian Populations","authors":"R. C. Merton, Rose Neng Lai","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3075087","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3075087","url":null,"abstract":"While aging population is a worldwide issue, it is more profound in Asia. Reverse mortgages are useful instrument to alleviate the continuous and steady consumption needs of retirees. The “puzzle” is why there has been rather modest uptake even in the US, UK, and Korea where it has been available for a considerable time. We propose a structural design for a reverse mortgage contract that works across geopolitical borders, including key design criteria, issues of education/marketing for both the retirees and their beneficiaries, and a feasible approach to funding reverse mortgage with reliable, cost-efficient supply of funds available consistently so that the reverse mortgages can be supported as a “standard” consideration for everyone considering for retirement. We will also examine the role of the government as regulator and as risk-bearing provider, in the reverse mortgage process. Our preliminary work suggests that an effective institutional means of funding reverse mortgages is likely to be considerable different from current practice. We also discuss how the possible obstacles, particularly Asian traditions, could be solved so as to allow reverse mortgage to be an instrument for improving retirement.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114196128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Both households and policymakers are concerned about retirement security, amidst widespread perceptions that households are not saving adequately for retirement. But many of the commonly-cited data understate retirement plan availability and participation as well as the income that retirees derive from IRA and 401(k) plans. Moreover, many observers contrast these unduly pessimistic data with a prior "Golden Age" of traditional pensions, when data show that most U.S. workers never participated in such plans and onerous vesting requirements prevented many from receiving substantial benefits. A perception that most Americans are falling far short of their retirement saving goals may cause policymakers to overlook targeted polices to assist the smaller number of households who truly are at risk of an inadequate income in retirement.
{"title":"What's Happening with Retirement Saving and Retirement Incomes? Better Data Tell a Better Story","authors":"Andrew G. Biggs","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2836958","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2836958","url":null,"abstract":"Both households and policymakers are concerned about retirement security, amidst widespread perceptions that households are not saving adequately for retirement. But many of the commonly-cited data understate retirement plan availability and participation as well as the income that retirees derive from IRA and 401(k) plans. Moreover, many observers contrast these unduly pessimistic data with a prior \"Golden Age\" of traditional pensions, when data show that most U.S. workers never participated in such plans and onerous vesting requirements prevented many from receiving substantial benefits. A perception that most Americans are falling far short of their retirement saving goals may cause policymakers to overlook targeted polices to assist the smaller number of households who truly are at risk of an inadequate income in retirement.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133458890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Households and welfare states both serve as vehicles of lifecycle financing through intergenerational transfers. Working-age people are net contributors, children and the elderly are net beneficiaries. However, there is a marked asymmetry in the socialization of intergenerational transfers. Working-age people pay taxes and social security contributions to care for the elderly as a generation, but they individually spend cash and contribute time to raise their own children. This results in asymmetric visibility of intergenerational transfers. Resources flowing to the elderly are near-fully observed in National Accounts (NA), but inter- and intra-household transfers are not registered there. Using data for ten European countries representing 70 percent of the population of the EU, we employ National Transfer Accounts (NTA) to include private transfers as well. In addition, as an extension of NTA, we use National Time Transfer Accounts (NTTA) to quantify the value of time transferred within and between households in the form of unpaid labor. Only a fifth of all resource transfers to children is registered in NA; another third is made visible by NTA, but nearly half is made visible only by NTTA. Contrary to much perceived wisdom, once intra-familial transfers of cash and time are incorporated, European societies transfer more resources to children than to the elderly.
{"title":"Pro-Elderly Welfare States within Pro-Child Societies: Incorporating Family Cash and Time into Intergenerational Transfers Analysis","authors":"R. I. Gál, Pieter Vanhuysse, Lili Vargha","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2817387","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2817387","url":null,"abstract":"Households and welfare states both serve as vehicles of lifecycle financing through intergenerational transfers. Working-age people are net contributors, children and the elderly are net beneficiaries. However, there is a marked asymmetry in the socialization of intergenerational transfers. Working-age people pay taxes and social security contributions to care for the elderly as a generation, but they individually spend cash and contribute time to raise their own children. This results in asymmetric visibility of intergenerational transfers. Resources flowing to the elderly are near-fully observed in National Accounts (NA), but inter- and intra-household transfers are not registered there. Using data for ten European countries representing 70 percent of the population of the EU, we employ National Transfer Accounts (NTA) to include private transfers as well. In addition, as an extension of NTA, we use National Time Transfer Accounts (NTTA) to quantify the value of time transferred within and between households in the form of unpaid labor. Only a fifth of all resource transfers to children is registered in NA; another third is made visible by NTA, but nearly half is made visible only by NTTA. Contrary to much perceived wisdom, once intra-familial transfers of cash and time are incorporated, European societies transfer more resources to children than to the elderly.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116447861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The question if political parties matter in social policy making is traditionally answered by an analysis of social spending or replacement rates. Following this approach, parties obviously mattered in the ‘golden age’, whereas their influence dwindled or even disappeared afterwards. Starting from the insights and blind spots of the conventional approach, I will outline an innovative, more historical approach that emphasizes the mutual interaction of political parties and welfare institutions over time. On the one hand, partisan conflict patterns are shaped by existing welfare institutions. This means that different institutional designs lead to different partisan conflicts and, ultimately, to contextualized partisan effects, i.e. if and especially how parties matter differs considerably across welfare states. On the other hand, welfare institutions are themselves the product of previous partisan conflicts and the resulting policies. Thus, by shaping the institutional design of welfare programs in their favor, parties can, due to policy feedback, deliberately constrain their political opponents’ policy options. Although one has to account for unintended consequences, this mechanism points to the existence of institutionalized partisan effects. The analytical framework is applied to pension politics in Sweden and the United Kingdom since the late 1950s.
{"title":"Partisan Politics in the Long Shadow of the Golden Age","authors":"Frank Bandau","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2668112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2668112","url":null,"abstract":"The question if political parties matter in social policy making is traditionally answered by an analysis of social spending or replacement rates. Following this approach, parties obviously mattered in the ‘golden age’, whereas their influence dwindled or even disappeared afterwards. Starting from the insights and blind spots of the conventional approach, I will outline an innovative, more historical approach that emphasizes the mutual interaction of political parties and welfare institutions over time. On the one hand, partisan conflict patterns are shaped by existing welfare institutions. This means that different institutional designs lead to different partisan conflicts and, ultimately, to contextualized partisan effects, i.e. if and especially how parties matter differs considerably across welfare states. On the other hand, welfare institutions are themselves the product of previous partisan conflicts and the resulting policies. Thus, by shaping the institutional design of welfare programs in their favor, parties can, due to policy feedback, deliberately constrain their political opponents’ policy options. Although one has to account for unintended consequences, this mechanism points to the existence of institutionalized partisan effects. The analytical framework is applied to pension politics in Sweden and the United Kingdom since the late 1950s.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116926583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
German Abstract: In regelmasigen Abstanden wird Schweden als mogliches Vorbild fur eine Reform der deutschen Rentenversicherung genannt. Hierbei werden allerdings meist die unterschiedlichen demographischen Ausgangssituationen beider Lander auser Acht gelassen. In dieser Studie wird die Bedeutung dieser Unterschiede fur die Ausgestaltungsmoglichkeiten der Rentenversicherungen beider Lander analysiert. Es zeigt sich, dass Schweden vor erheblich geringeren demographischen Herausforderungen steht. So wurde der Beitragssatz der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung unter einer schwedischen Bevolkerung bis 2060 um 2,8 Prozentpunkte weniger stark ansteigen. Gleichzeitig ware das Brutto-Standardrentenniveau 2060 um 3,4 Prozentpunkte hoher. Umgekehrt wurde in Deutschland nach einer Umstellung auf das schwedische NDC-System mit konstantem Beitragssatz von 20% die Absenkung des durchschnittlichen Brutto-Rentenniveaus im Vergleich zum derzeitigen System doppelt so hoch ausfallen. Dies ist vollstandig auf die unterschiedliche Verteilung der demographischen Last zwischen Rentnern und Beitragszahlern zuruckzufuhren.English Abstract: Sweden is regularly mentioned as a possible model for a reform of the German Pension Insurance System. However, this is done mostly without paying attention to the differences in the initial demographic situation of both countries. In this study, the consequences of these differences for the design of the pension insurance systems in both countries are analyzed. It becomes apparent that Sweden faces considerably smaller demographic challenges. The contribution rate of the German Statutory Pension Insurance would increase by less than 2.8 percentage points until 2060 with a Swedish population structure. Simultaneously, the gross standard pension level would be 3.4 percentage points higher until 2060. Vice versa, a change to the Swedish NDC system with a constant contribution rate of 20% in Germany would induce a reduction of the average gross pension level that is more than twice as high compared to the reduction under the current system. This is completely attributable to the different assignment of the demographical burden to pensioners and contributors.
{"title":"Was wäre wenn wir Schweden wären? Ist das schwedische Rentensystem auf Deutschland übertragbar? (What If We Were Sweden? Is the Swedish Pension System Transferable to Germany?)","authors":"J. Rausch","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2560187","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2560187","url":null,"abstract":"German Abstract: In regelmasigen Abstanden wird Schweden als mogliches Vorbild fur eine Reform der deutschen Rentenversicherung genannt. Hierbei werden allerdings meist die unterschiedlichen demographischen Ausgangssituationen beider Lander auser Acht gelassen. In dieser Studie wird die Bedeutung dieser Unterschiede fur die Ausgestaltungsmoglichkeiten der Rentenversicherungen beider Lander analysiert. Es zeigt sich, dass Schweden vor erheblich geringeren demographischen Herausforderungen steht. So wurde der Beitragssatz der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung unter einer schwedischen Bevolkerung bis 2060 um 2,8 Prozentpunkte weniger stark ansteigen. Gleichzeitig ware das Brutto-Standardrentenniveau 2060 um 3,4 Prozentpunkte hoher. Umgekehrt wurde in Deutschland nach einer Umstellung auf das schwedische NDC-System mit konstantem Beitragssatz von 20% die Absenkung des durchschnittlichen Brutto-Rentenniveaus im Vergleich zum derzeitigen System doppelt so hoch ausfallen. Dies ist vollstandig auf die unterschiedliche Verteilung der demographischen Last zwischen Rentnern und Beitragszahlern zuruckzufuhren.English Abstract: Sweden is regularly mentioned as a possible model for a reform of the German Pension Insurance System. However, this is done mostly without paying attention to the differences in the initial demographic situation of both countries. In this study, the consequences of these differences for the design of the pension insurance systems in both countries are analyzed. It becomes apparent that Sweden faces considerably smaller demographic challenges. The contribution rate of the German Statutory Pension Insurance would increase by less than 2.8 percentage points until 2060 with a Swedish population structure. Simultaneously, the gross standard pension level would be 3.4 percentage points higher until 2060. Vice versa, a change to the Swedish NDC system with a constant contribution rate of 20% in Germany would induce a reduction of the average gross pension level that is more than twice as high compared to the reduction under the current system. This is completely attributable to the different assignment of the demographical burden to pensioners and contributors.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114082848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines conflicting assessments of whether people will have adequate retirement income to maintain their pre-retirement standard of living. The studies that it examines use data from the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), and the HRS supplement Consumption and Activities Mail Survey (CAMS). Critical components of the analysis are behavioral assumptions about household consumption patterns when children leave home and when households retire. A key limitation is that the behavioral assumptions in the different studies are based on incomplete knowledge of actual household behavior. The paper found that: A simple – assumption-free – calculation of wealth to income by age clearly indicates that households retiring in the future will be less prepared than those in the past. Studies showing that households are saving optimally hinge crucially on assumptions that people are willing to accept declining consumption as they age and that they sharply reduce their consumption when the children leave home. While other studies have found consumption does not decline early in retirement, new analysis suggests that many will be unable to maintain this pace over their full retirement. The policy implications of the findings are: Households are more likely than not to be falling short in their retirement preparedness. Such shortfalls should be taken into consideration as policymakers discuss options for reforming Social Security. To bolster retirement preparedness, policymakers may want to consider ways to encourage more private saving, such as requiring 401(k)s to adopt auto-enrollment and auto-escalation policies and to apply these policies to current workers as well as new hires.
{"title":"Are Retirees Falling Short? Reconciling the Conflicting Evidence","authors":"A. Munnell, Matthew S. Rutledge, A. Webb","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2530024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2530024","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines conflicting assessments of whether people will have adequate retirement income to maintain their pre-retirement standard of living. The studies that it examines use data from the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), and the HRS supplement Consumption and Activities Mail Survey (CAMS). Critical components of the analysis are behavioral assumptions about household consumption patterns when children leave home and when households retire. A key limitation is that the behavioral assumptions in the different studies are based on incomplete knowledge of actual household behavior. The paper found that: A simple – assumption-free – calculation of wealth to income by age clearly indicates that households retiring in the future will be less prepared than those in the past. Studies showing that households are saving optimally hinge crucially on assumptions that people are willing to accept declining consumption as they age and that they sharply reduce their consumption when the children leave home. While other studies have found consumption does not decline early in retirement, new analysis suggests that many will be unable to maintain this pace over their full retirement. The policy implications of the findings are: Households are more likely than not to be falling short in their retirement preparedness. Such shortfalls should be taken into consideration as policymakers discuss options for reforming Social Security. To bolster retirement preparedness, policymakers may want to consider ways to encourage more private saving, such as requiring 401(k)s to adopt auto-enrollment and auto-escalation policies and to apply these policies to current workers as well as new hires.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122237105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A number of World Bank studies have been presenting inconsistent and contradictory data on the performance of mandatory private second pillar pension funds in Eastern Europe. This paper shows that the World Bank data is upwardly biased and tangibly overstates the true second pillar performance. The consequences are significant enough to undermine a credible policy analysis, especially an assessment of the recent reform reversals. This paper argues that the disappointing second pillar performance makes it possible for reform reversals in some countries to improve the short-term fiscal position without necessarily deteriorating the long-term pension sustainability. The recent reform reversal trend thus deserves a more elaborate research in order to establish firm basis for making adequate policy recommendations. Since the World Bank is one of the leading sources of information on international pension policies, an improvement of its disclosure standards is necessary in order to prevent similar dubious data issues from reoccurring in the future.
{"title":"On the Validity and the Consequences of the World Bank Pension Data on Policy Making in Eastern Europe","authors":"Nikola Altiparmakov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2474716","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2474716","url":null,"abstract":"A number of World Bank studies have been presenting inconsistent and contradictory data on the performance of mandatory private second pillar pension funds in Eastern Europe. This paper shows that the World Bank data is upwardly biased and tangibly overstates the true second pillar performance. The consequences are significant enough to undermine a credible policy analysis, especially an assessment of the recent reform reversals. This paper argues that the disappointing second pillar performance makes it possible for reform reversals in some countries to improve the short-term fiscal position without necessarily deteriorating the long-term pension sustainability. The recent reform reversal trend thus deserves a more elaborate research in order to establish firm basis for making adequate policy recommendations. Since the World Bank is one of the leading sources of information on international pension policies, an improvement of its disclosure standards is necessary in order to prevent similar dubious data issues from reoccurring in the future.","PeriodicalId":127004,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Income (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132628482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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